Australian Agricultural Production Research Articles

Revised emission factors for estimating direct nitrous oxide emissions from nitrogen inputs in Australia’s agricultural production systems: a meta-analysis

Context Agricultural soils are a major source of emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O). Aim Quantify direct N2O emissions from Australian agricultural production systems receiving nitrogen (N) inputs from synthetic and organic fertilisers, crop residues, urine and dung. Method A meta-analysis of N2O emissions from Australian agriculture (2003–2021) identified 394 valid emission factors (EFs), including 102 EFs with enhanced efficiency fertilisers (EEFs). Key results The average EF from all N sources (excluding EEFs) was 0.57%. Industry-based EFs for synthetic N fertiliser (excluding EEFs) ranged from 0.17% (non-irrigated pasture) to 1.77% (sugar cane), with an average Australia-wide EF of 0.70%. Emission factors were independent of topsoil organic carbon content, bulk density and pH. The revised EF for the non-irrigated cropping (grains) industry is now 0.41%; however, geographically-defined EFs are recommended. Urea was the most common N source with an average EF of 0.72% compared to urine (0.20%), dung (0.06%) and organo-mineral mixtures (0.26%). The EF for synthetic N fertilisers in rainfed environments increased by 0.16% for every 100 mm over 300 mm mean annual rainfall. For each additional 50 kg N ha−1 of synthetic fertiliser, EFs increased by 0.13%, 0.31% and 0.38% for the horticulture, irrigated and high rainfall non-irrigated cropping industries, respectively. The use of 3,4 dimethylpyrazole-phosphate (DMPP) produced significant reductions in EFs of 55%, 80% and 84% for the horticulture, non-irrigated and irrigated cropping industries, respectively. Conclusions and implications Incorporation of the revised EFs into the 2020 National Greenhouse Accounts (NGA) produced a 12% increase in direct N2O emissions from the application of synthetic N fertilisers. The lack of country-specific crop residue decomposition data is a major deficiency in the NGA.

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century.

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041-2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO2 emission scenario by 2081-2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.

Australia’s nutritional food balance: situation, outlook and policy implications

Australia is a food trading nation with a complex food system. Change can have important implications for rural communities, employment, trade, public health nutrition and food security. This study compares Australian food intake scenarios to 2050 with linear projections for Australian agricultural production. The study is distinguished by its nutritional perspective, characterising food balance in terms of basic foods rather than food energy or macronutrients, as well as its systems perspective, taking into account the transformations that occur in food processing and cooking, livestock feed requirements, as well as supply chain and kitchen losses. With Australia’s population projected to increase from around 23 million in 2015 to 37.5 million in 2050, substantial increases in domestic food supply will be required. Although the situation and outlook differ for each commodity, in most respects demand is projected to increase at a greater rate than local production. This suggests that the Australian food system is on a trajectory toward reduced net food exports and increased dependence on imports. This will have implications for Australia’s role in the global food system and presents a change in some of the determinants of national food security. The trajectory of the food system also appears to be at odds with the massive public health challenges associated with diet related disease. These and other implications of an enlarging and increasingly international food system are discussed.

Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050

Australian agricultural land use and production have evolved within an economic and environmental context that may change substantially in terms of productivity rates, resource scarcity and degradation, greenhouse gas abatement policy, climate change, and global demand. We used an integrated systems modelling approach to explore the response of Australian land use and agricultural production to these changes from 2013 to 2050. We found potentially large transitions in spatial and temporal patterns of land use, agricultural production, output rates, and profitability. New land uses such as carbon plantings, biofuels and bioenergy, and environmental plantings competed with food and fibre production, reducing its area. Global outlooks, including the strength of action on climate change and population assumptions, had a strong influence. Capacity constraints and adoption inertia reduced and delayed land use change. Agricultural production and land use were sensitive to productivity assumptions. Despite the competition for land from new land uses, agricultural production increased under most settings, with greatest impact from land use transitions concentrated on livestock production. Agricultural profits also increased under most settings due to higher prices and output rates. Negligible land use change was observed with carbon payments below $50 per tCO2-e, and significant change did not occur before 2030 in any but the unconstrained, high-abatement scenarios. We conclude that transformative land use change is plausible but high levels of food/fibre production can co-exist with non-food land uses motivated by market responses to global change and domestic policy. Thereby, the Australian land sector can continue its significant contribution to global food security while responding to new economic opportunities. Policy settings can influence these outcomes through reducing infrastructure constraints, strategies for enhancing adoption, and research and development in agricultural technology and productivity. Due to the long time frames required to change attitudes and land use and management practices, consideration of the possible impacts of global change on agriculture and potential policy responses is timely.

Achieving recommended intakes of fruits and vegetables is largely unaffordable for urban households in Port Vila, Vanuatu

Achieving recommended intakes of fruits and vegetables is largely unaffordable for urban households in Port Vila, Vanuatu

Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change

Australia is a major food exporting country. Recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture, with a resulting decline in aggregate agricultural production and exports. This paper analyses the possible impact of increased water scarcity on Australian agricultural production and the magnitude of subsequent impacts on global food security. Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on land and water use coupled with a hydro-economic stochastic modelling approach, the impacts of reduced agricultural production in the southern Murray–Darling Basin, and more generally for Australia, are analysed. Changes in agricultural activity, reduction in agricultural exports and altered composition of products exported attributed to the severe 2000–2009 drought are also analysed to highlight the implications for global food security. The impact of climate change on food production is examined. The analysis shows that climate change, when modelled as the extreme case, along with other factors such as land use, will impact Australian food exports. Despite its relatively small contribution to total global food supply, Australia’s contribution to international trade in wheat, meat and dairy products is substantial and could affect global food prices. Furthermore, Australia’s agricultural exports are of disproportionate importance within the South- and South–East Asian and Oceania region, both in terms of volume and for strategic reasons. Adaptation along with investment in agriculture production is needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security.

Re-mapping regulatory space: The new governance of Australian dairying

Despite questions currently raised about the future of neoliberalism, it remains embedded within Australian agricultural policy and practice. This paper explores the strengths and limitations of mechanisms contributing to neoliberalism’s survival through a close examination of the restructuring of Australian agricultural production and governance processes under the influence of both globalising impulses and adherence to neoliberal strategies. We trace the changes in governance flowing from the dismantling of regulatory structures in the Australian dairy industry, and the creation of new forms of governance that have both facilitated this transition and dealt with its adverse, often unintended, consequences. The changing governance of Australian dairying is analysed through the lens of three arenas of governance: state, industry and place. Drought has played an important part in re-spacialising dairying and re-shaping the balance between farmers and industry, demonstrating the contingency at play in emerging governance structures. This study of processes of change within the highly export-oriented dairy sector of Australia focuses attention on resistance and on some of the messy actualities of the interplay between state, place and industry – and nature – in neoliberal agri-food governance.

The sustainability of Australian agricultural production systems: a realistic objective or simply a desirable aim?

SUMMARY Whilst the term sustainability has undergone considerable transformation from its original intended meaning, in the context of agriculture it is considered to have relevance to four aspects of the activity; the maintenance of production, financial returns, employment opportunities, and the stability of the ecosystem. This article's appraisal of market trends suggests that the key issue of substantially improved financial returns for Australian agriculturalists is at present unlikely for some enterprises. What is particularly discouraging is that downward trends have persisted, despite the many efficiency gains in agriculture. Further gains from technological developments and trade liberalisation will be limited for many agricultural sectors. Whilst initiatives to reduce land degradation have achieved a high public profile, greater effectiveness can be achieved in this area. There is some scope for significant improvements in the overall performance of agriculture, but the most achievable gains wil...

Australian agricultural production in relation to world requirements

(1949). Australian agricultural production in relation to world requirements. Australian Outlook: Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 9-21.