US Australia Research Articles

Why will China and Russia not form an alliance? The balance of beliefs in peacetime

Abstract The ongoing war in Ukraine has thrust China–Russia relations into the global spotlight, with both nations asserting their stance against forming a military alliance. This article introduces a novel ‘balance-of-beliefs’ framework, positing that the foundation of peacetime alliances lies in leaders' shared beliefs. Using operational code analysis, this study quantifies the philosophical and instrumental beliefs of leaders from the United States (Barack Obama), Australia (Tony Abbott), China (Xi Jinping) and Russia (Vladimir Putin) between 2013 and 2015, and includes additional comparison between Putin and Xi between 2016 and 2022. This research examines the essential role of aligned world-views on ‘the nature of the political universe’ (which we label a P-1 belief) and ‘the strategic approach to achieving political objectives’ (an I-1 belief). The findings reveal that such congruence is crucial for fostering like-minded alliances in peacetime, as evidenced by the US–Australia alliance. In contrast, the divergent P-1 beliefs of Xi and Putin hinder a Sino-Russian military alliance; yet, their aligned I-1 beliefs facilitate pragmatic cooperation on specific issues. This analysis underscores the need for US and European policy-makers to devise nuanced strategies in response to the evolving dynamics of a rising China and a resurgent Russia.

The dynamics of Australian stock indices and commodities based on MGARCH-DCC and wavelet techniques

This paper aims to investigate the extent of hedging and diversification opportunities available for an Australian investor who holds a portfolio consisting of Australian conventional and Islamic indices, crude oil, gold, Bitcoin, and the Australia–US exchange rate of daily data from 2011 to 2021. The relevant time-varying and time-scale dependent techniques, such as MGARCH dynamic conditional correlation (MGARCH-DCC), continuous wavelet transform (CWT), and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) are employed to discern the correlation and volatilities of the variables. The paper’s unique contribution lies in unveiling an Australian investor’s diversification opportunities of a portfolio containing Bitcoin, gold, oil, Islamic indices, conventional indices, and exchange rates. Findings from MGARCH-DCC analysis suggest that Bitcoin is the least correlated variable. However, investors may be discouraged from choosing Bitcoin as a diversification instrument due to its high volatility. The evidence further suggests that Australian investors may benefit from diversification with gold. Nonetheless, the CWT result shows that the diversification benefits effects will last for a holding period no longer than 64 days. Our research findings tend to indicate the importance of finding diversification opportunities for investors with heterogeneous investment holdings over various periods by utilising relatively advanced techniques.

Erratum to: The ‘Asia threat’ in the US–Australia relationship: then and now

Erratum to: The ‘Asia threat’ in the US–Australia relationship: then and now

US-Australia-Indonesia Trilateral Security? Conditions for Cooperation

ABSTRACTSince the 1950s, US strategic architecture in the Indo-Pacific has been premised on its hubs-and-spokes model of bilateral alliances and security partnerships. Since the 2000s the US began working toward forging deeper interrelationships between its regional allies and partners. The emerging strategy ultimately aims to interlink long-standing allies like Japan and Australia, and also non-traditional partners in the development of a security network capable of maintaining the regional ‘rules-based order.’ In analysing the US-led triangular Indo-Pacific geometry, this article considers the prospects of an evolving and substantive US–Australia–Indonesia security trilateral. It does so by utilising Miller’s ‘conditions for cooperation framework’ to test the likelihood of greater cooperation between these three states. These conditions include cultural similarity, economic equality, habits of international association, the perception of common danger, and greater power pressure. It concludes that while there remain strict limitations on any formal alignment between the ANZUS partners and Indonesia, there are convergent interests in key sub-strategic areas in the maritime space and thus a viable path toward greater trilateral cooperation but not, as yet, formal arrangements.

The ‘Asia threat’ in the US–Australia relationship: then and now

AbstractFor almost a century before the formal alliance between the United States and Australia in 1941, a relationship was being formed around interrelated perceptions of shared identity and economic, political, and strategic interests. Perhaps the single most important factor in the recognition of shared interests lay in the mutually reinforcing fears of a multilayered ‘Asia threat’ that developed in parallel in both countries, originating as a demographic fear over Chinese migration during gold rushes of the 1850s, and progressing to focus on the growing military power of imperial Japan and geostrategic dominance of the Pacific. In recent years, the rise of China has been the central focus of US–Australia alliance, and, in many respects, the security architecture used to confront China is a legacy of the historical ‘Asia threat’. Understanding the historical context of the relationship is necessary for dispelling the anachronistic ‘Asia threat’ perceptions from the contemporary security policy.

Trumping foreign policy: public diplomacy, framing, and public opinion among middle power publics

ABSTRACTEven as the world’s sole superpower, the United States requires the cooperation of other states to achieve many of its foreign policy objectives. The President of the United States thus often serves as ‘Diplomat in Chief’ in public diplomacy efforts to appeal directly to publics abroad. Given Donald Trump’s antagonistic approach to foreign relations and widespread lack of popularity, what are the implications for support for US policy among publics abroad – particularly among middle power states allied to the US? While previous research on public opinion relying on observational data has found that confidence in the US President is linked to support for American foreign policy goals, the mechanisms at work remain unclear. Using original data from survey-based experiments conducted in Canada and Australia, this article seeks to clarify the effect of ‘presidential framing’ (presenting a policy goal as endorsed or not endorsed by Trump) on attitudes toward key policy issues in the Canada–US and Australia–US relationships. Results point to a negative ‘Trump framing’ effect in Canadians’ and Australians’ trade policy attitudes, but such an effect is not observed in other policy domains (energy policy in Canada, and refugee policy in Australia).

Intelligence cooperation and new trends in space technology: do the ties still bind?

ABSTRACTFor the first time since the 1970s, Canberra cannot assume the joint facilities will continue to underpin the Australia–US alliance. Intelligence cooperation via outer space, described as the ‘strategic essence’ of this relationship, is poised for transformation. New technologies are being developed for satellite communication, with laser systems capable of bypassing ground control stations outside US territory. As a result, the one indispensable role for Australia in US national security—hosting infrastructure to relay intelligence about nuclear and missile activity—could become irrelevant in the years ahead. With questions raised about the Trump administration’s commitment to security partners and the risk of US disengagement from Asia, these findings have implications for Australian alliance diplomacy. If intelligence ties bind these countries together at present, Canberra can expect some risk of loosening in the future and will need to think carefully about the development of national intelligence resources over the long term.

The role of ‘diplomatic lobbying’ in shaping US foreign policy and its effects on the Australia–US relationship

ABSTRACTLobbying as a form of engagement with the US Congress has long been studied from a domestic perspective. Lobbying, however, is not a practice confined to actors with domestic interests—it is also used as a form of diplomacy by many foreign governments, including Australia. Diplomatic lobbying is a vastly understudied phenomenon and its impact on US foreign relations is rarely examined. Unlike most Westminster-based democracies, the USA has two branches directly involved with foreign affairs—the Executive and Congress—each of which is important for different aspects of foreign policy development. Australia has found lobbying the US Congress to be a powerful tool for diplomatic engagement. This article looks at the role of the US Congress in foreign affairs, the effects of lobbying, and the ways in which diplomats engage with and lobby Congress. Australia’s specific lobbying efforts and their effects on the US–Australia relationship are then examined.

The economic impact of the Australia–US free trade agreement

The Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) came into effect in 2005. It was the second preferential trade agreement that Australia signed, after its agreement with Singapore, and marked a departure from the primacy of Australia's previous trade policy of unilateral and multilateral trade liberalisation toward preferential liberalisation. This paper assesses the economic effects of AUSFTA by applying the Productivity Commission's gravity model of trade from its Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements review. The evidence reveals AUSFTA resulted in a fall in Australian and US trade with the rest of the world—that the agreement led to trade diversion. Estimates also show that AUSFTA is associated with a reduction in trade between Australia and the United States.

The role of the AALD in preserving the Australia–US alliance

This article critically evaluates the agenda and strategy of the Australian American Leadership Dialogue (AALD) for protecting and strengthening the Australia–US alliance. Nominally an exercise in informal diplomacy dedicated to fostering mutual understanding, the AALD functions more like a pro-American lobby group as it seeks to preserve orthodox thinking and eschew dissenting perspectives. The AALD performs this function in three main ways: by carefully framing discussion and debate, by socialising Australian elites into the alliance orthodoxy and by serving as a ‘gatekeeper’ of the status quo.本文对保卫、加强澳美联盟的澳美领袖对话提出批评。该对话虽然名义上只是加强共同理解的非正式外交实践， 但其作用更像是亲美游说集团，因为它要保持正统的思路，回避不同的观点。该对话用三种方式实现这一功能：小心地设置讨论和辩论；向澳大利亚精英灌输联盟的正统观；充当现状的守门人。

‘An ally for all the years to come’: why Australia is not a conflicted US ally

In 2011, Australia communicated a clear choice about its strategic future. It would continue to cleave tightly to the US alliance, expand its military links and work to advance the USA's conception of regional order. Given its economic interests, why has Australia bound itself to the US alliance? What lies behind this strong commitment and what would it take for Australia to change its relationship with the USA? This article presents an analysis of the current state of the US–Australia alliance and argues that Canberra's pursuit of close relations with the USA reflects the interaction of a rational calculation of the costs and benefits of the alliance with a set of resolutely political factors that have produced the current policy setting. The article first assesses the security cost and benefit behind the alliance. It then argues that the move also derives from the strong domestic support for the US alliance, a sharpened sense that China's rise was generating regional instability that only the US primacy could manage and the realisation that the economic fallout of such a move would be minimal. It concludes with a brief reflection on what it might take to change the current policy settings.

Symposium: Australia–US Economic Relations and the Regional Balance of PowerAustralia–US Economic Relations following the 2005 Free Trade Agreement

The Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) came into force on 1 January 2005. Australia's exports to the US have since stagnated, while imports into and US investments in Australia have surged. This article analyses Australia–US economic relations with a focus on trade and investment flows. In addition, it examines the capital raising by US investment banks for these projects. The analysis traces the effects on the relationship of the Global Financial Crisis, the resources boom in Australia and the rise of the Australian dollar.澳美自由贸易协定2005年元旦起生效。自那以来，澳大利亚对美出口止步不前，而来自美国的进口和投资却一路上扬。本文考察了澳美经济关系，重点分析了贸易和投资流。此外作者还研究了美国投资银行为那些项目的融资。以往分析研究探索了全球金融危机、澳大利亚起源开发热以及澳大利亚元升值三者之间关系所受的影响。

Symposium: Australia–US Economic Relations and the Regional Balance of PowerThe Decline of US Economic Power and Influence: Implications for Australian Foreign Policy

Australia faces a complex set of dilemmas in foreign, defence, and economic policy. Australian governments have traditionally relied on the United States to underwrite the country's defence policies, and have regularly demonstrated loyalty to the bilateral strategic alliance. Yet, Australia's economic security has become more dependent on China, a country with which the US has a competitive relationship. This article first reviews theories of competition among great powers. It then analyses key factors that are shaping the region and the Australian policy environment. It is argued that Australia may have much to gain from acting collaboratively with other middle powers within multilateral institutions. In this context, Australia may also benefit from a more robust recognition of its own distinctive national interest.澳大利亚面临外交、防务、经济政策上一系列的复杂难题。澳政府以往一直是依赖美国为澳国的防务政策签字画押，而且一直对双边战略联盟忠诚不二。但澳大利亚的经济安全却更依赖同美国有着竞争关系的中国。本文梳理了有关大国竞争关系的各种理论，分析了构成地区以及澳大利亚政策环境的诸多因素。作者认为，与中等强国进行多边体制内的合作，会让澳大利益受益非强。坚定不移的强调自己的国家利益，对澳大利亚也是有益的。

Symposium: Australia–US Economic Relations and the Regional Balance of PowerAustralia, the United States and the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Diverging Interests and Unintended Consequences

When the talks for a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) were launched in 2010, there appeared to be a coincidence of interests between the American and Australian governments in negotiating a high-quality, ‘21st-century’ trade arrangement that would multilateralise the bilateral and minilateral trade agreements that have proliferated in the Asia-Pacific region in the last 15 years. As the negotiations progressed, however, a divergence between American and Australian interests became apparent. Protectionist interests in the United States have prevented the administration from improving on market access agreements in the current preferential trade agreements with TPP partners, thereby undermining the multilateralisation objective. Some of the elements of the US template for 21st-century trade agreements, notably enhanced protection for intellectual property, and the inclusion of investor–state dispute resolution, clash with Australian trade priorities. Moreover, the central role of the TPP in the US ‘pivot to Asia’ has led to perceptions that it is part of a strategy to encircle China: consequently the TPP may force Australia to make the very choice between China and the United States that the government wishes to avoid.当2010年启动跨太平洋伙伴关系时，在谈判高质量、“21世纪”的贸易安排时美国和澳大利亚政府的利益似乎走到了一起。这种贸易安排会使过去十五年里亚太地区繁荣的双边及微关系多边化。在谈判进行的过程中，美澳之间的分歧却变得明朗了。美国的保护主义利益集团阻碍政府在现行的与亚太伙伴的最惠贸易协定中改善贸易准入协定，因此损害了多边化的目标。美国21世纪贸易协议的模式，明显加强了知识产权的保护，而且包含了投资者—国家争端解决的内容，与澳大利亚贸易优先的考虑发生了冲突。但亚太伙伴关系在美国重心移往亚洲的计划中至关重要，让人觉得就是包围中国战略的一部分。因此亚太伙伴关系会迫使澳大利亚在中美之间做澳政府并不愿意做的选择。

Foreign Direct Investment in Australia Following the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement

AbstractA model of inward foreign direct investment for Australia is estimated. Foreign direct investment is found to be positively related to economic and productivity growth and negatively related to foreign portfolio investment, trade openness, the exchange rate and the foreign real interest rate. Foreign direct investment is found to be a substitute for both portfolio investment and trade in goods and services. The exchange rate and the US bond rate affect foreign direct investment through the relative attractiveness of domestic assets. Actual foreign direct investment outperforms a model‐derived forecast in recent years, consistent with the liberalisation of foreign investment screening rules following the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement.

The Framing of Islam and Muslims in the Tenth Anniversary Coverage of 9/11: Implications for Reconciliation and Moving On

This article analyses Australian television news programmes' framing of the tenth anniversary of the events of 9/11. Our findings build on and reaffirm the earlier work we did in this area—showing that television news programmes in Australia have moved away from conflating terrorism with Muslims and Islam. We found that the tenth anniversary coverage was presented with the frames of “reconciliation” and “moving on” from 9/11. The dominant frame used by Australian television news was based on the US–Australia relations, including a shared worldview, common experiences of lives lost in the attacks and a unified response in the context of the “war on terror”. Notably absent from the coverage was the attribution of references to bridge-building with Muslim minority communities.

Impact of the Australia—US Free Trade Agreement on Australian Medicines Regulation and Prices

The Australia—United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) came into force on 1 January 2005. Before and subsequently to the AUSFTA being concluded, controversy surrounded the debate over its impact on Australia's health policy, specifically on regulation of pharmaceutical patents and Australia's cost-effectiveness system relating to prescription medicine prices known as the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). This article examines the expectations of both parties in the pharmaceutical sector with regard to the AUSFTA, as well as how successfully they were achieved. It seeks to analyse important relevant outcomes for regulators, the public and pharmaceutical industry, as well as lessons about how trade negotiations relating to health and medicines policy should be approached in future. To investigate whether AUSFTA-related regulatory changes may lead to higher medicines prices in Australia, we looked at recent PBS Public Summary Documents to discover examples of PBS-approved FI (patented) drugs, over the period from July 2008 until June 2009, that failed to establish cost-effectiveness over F2 (generic) comparators (with mandated price cuts) and were thence cost-minimised. This period was chosen because the major price effects of the potentially AUSFTA-related National Health Amendment ( Pharmaceuticals Benefits Scheme) Act 2007 (Cth) came into effect from August 2008.

Dynamic Gains and Market Access Insurance: Another Look at the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement

Abstract We revisit the benefits of the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) and, in particular, evaluate the insurance value of this agreement in the face of regional and global trade wars. The insurance benefits are quantified by comparing the AUSFTA against alternative scenarios where some or all regions raise tariffs by 10 percentage points. Issues regarding expectations and the timing of potential trade wars are considered by using a dynamic model. The potential gains relative to these alternative trade war status quo scenarios are found to be as much as four times larger than the traditional efficiency gains.

Trade Liberalisation and Australia’s Television Cultural Policy: Power and Interest in National Television Policy

In the development of national television policy Australian governments have placed considerable importance on the television system reflecting national culture. Commercial television is regulated for minimum levels of Australian content and direct subsidy is available for the production of certain types of content. Yet, despite this the participation of Australia in recent international trade agreements has constrained the power of the state to act in this area of national television policy. This paper examines the Australia US Free Trade Agreement and the Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement with New Zealand for their impact on national television cultural policy. The paper proceeds from the proposition that policy change involves the exercise of power by organised groups within the policy domain, who seek to influence the terms of the policy development. It identifies Australian commercial broadcasters, Australian television producers and workers, foreign production industry groups and foreign governments as actors in this policy domain. It argues that each had differential power to influence the outcomes of the process of policy change and decision making by the state, but that willingness to exercise that power depended on their interest in intervening. Australian producers/workers had the most interest, but their power was weaker relative to that of commercial broadcasters. In comparison, the broadcasters and the USA had stronger power but only the USA was willing to exercise it to change Australia’s television cultural policy.

Mr Howard Goes to Washington: September 11, the Australian–American Relationship and Attributes of Leadership

Avoiding judgements on policy, this article provides, from the perspective of participants, an account of the events surrounding John Howard's presence in Washington on 11 September 2001. It examines the significance of those events for the realisation of his government's goal of strengthening the Australia–US relationship and explores what his responses reveal about his leadership attributes, using a template (with an emphasis on emotional intelligence) used to evaluate leadership among US Presidents, which may have further application in the Australian context. The principal objectives of Howard's visit to Washington in 2001 were to build a personal relationship with the Bush Administration, ‘rebalance’ Australia's foreign policy by strengthening the political/military alliance with the US and prepare the ground for a free trade agreement. Recording the impact of the extraordinary events of that day on participants, we argue that Howard instinctively seized the opportunity to commit Australia to responses that accelerated the realisation of these objectives and that these outcomes were achieved through the intersection of deeply embedded convictions, well-prepared positions and attributes of Howard's leadership that September 11 revealed.