August Period Research Articles

Impact of climatic trends on the water demand and irrigation planning for annual crops in the São Francisco River basin, Brazil

This study evaluated the spatial distribution of precipitation (P) and Peman-Monteith reference ET (ETo) in Brazil's São Francisco River basin (1961–2022). The analysis included Mann-Kendall trend tests and future IPCC projections on P and ETo to assess the need for supplemental irrigation (SI) of maize crop over twelve hypothetical growing seasons. The average annual P in the basin was 1300 mm year−1, decreasing from the Upper to the Lower section. Annual ETo averaged 1670 mm year−1, with higher depths in the Middle and Lower-middle sections. Trends for both P and ETo were significant(p < 0.05) in 58% of the basin. The overall trend magnitude in P was positive (average of about 0.5 mm year−2). Trend was decreasing in 56% of the sites (3.2 mm year−2) and increasing in 44% of them (5.3 mm year−2). For ETo, the overall trend was also positive (average of 3.0 mm year−2), with increasing trend in 79% of the sites (4.6 mm year−2) and a decreasing trend of 3.8 mm year−2 in 21% of the area. The need of SI varied both over the year with peaks in the May–August period and over the basin with higher depths in the Middle and Lower-middle sections. Large SI values (>800 mm) were associated with the dry season and areas with persistent trends in decreasing P and increasing ETo. Future IPCC projections indicate increased SI depths in most of the basin by 2081–2100, with the Middle and Lower-middle sections facing potentially unsustainable level for crop production.

Analyzing Trends in Saharan Dust Concentration and Its Relation to Sargassum Blooms in the Eastern Caribbean

This study investigates the temporal trends and correlations between Saharan dust mass concentration densities (DMCD) and Sargassum concentrations (SCT) in the tropical North Atlantic. Average DMCD data for June, July, and August from 1980 to 2022, alongside SCT data for the same months from 2012 to 2022, were analyzed using Mann–Kendall tests for trends and lagged regression models to assess whether higher Saharan dust levels correlate with Sargassum outbreaks in the region. A comprehensive analysis reveals a significant upward trend in Saharan dust quantities over the study period, with the summer months of June, July, and August exhibiting consistent increases. Notably, 2018 and 2020 recorded the highest mean DMCD levels, with June showing the most significant increasing trend, peaking in 2019. These findings are consistent with previous studies indicating a continuous elevation in Saharan dust concentrations in the tropical atmosphere of the North Atlantic. Simultaneously, Sargassum concentrations also show a notable increasing trend, particularly in 2018, which experienced both peak SCT and elevated DMCD levels. Mann–Kendall tests confirm statistically significant upward trends in both Saharan dust and Sargassum concentrations. Simple linear regression and lagged regression analyses reveal positive correlations between DMCD and SCT, highlighting a temporal component with stronger associations observed in July and the overall June–July–August (JJA) period. These results underscore the potential contribution of elevated Saharan dust concentrations to the recent surge in Sargassum outbreaks in the tropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, the results from forward stepwise regression (FSR) models indicate that DMCD and chlorophyll (CHLO) are the most critical predictors of SCT for the summer months, while sea surface temperature (SST) was not a significant predictor. These findings emphasize the importance of monitoring Saharan dust and chlorophyll trends in the Eastern Caribbean, as both factors are essential for improving Sargassum modeling and prediction in the region. This study provides valuable insights into the climatic factors influencing marine ecosystems and highlights the need for integrated environmental monitoring to manage the impacts on coastal economies.

UAV and field survey investigation of a landslide triggered debris flow and dam formation in Eastern Carpathians

In the May–August period of 2010, major heavy rains impacted the Eastern Carpathians (Northeastern Romania), leading to flash floods and triggering numerous landslides. The extreme weather conditions caused damage to the road network, extensive forest destruction, and lead to formation of impounded lakes. One of the hardest-hit areas was the mountain tributaries catchments of the Bistrița watershed. Particularly, the most significant landslide-triggered debris flow event occurred in the upper Iapa valley (Neamț County). The landslide process started near the top of the Drumul Chinezilor ridge in the Goșmanu-Geamăna Massif (Tarcău Mountains), at an elevation of 875 m a.s.l., and the flow-slide fan obstructed a 300-m section of the Iapa watercourse at 615 m a.s.l. This study compiles the climatic, anthropogenic, geological, and geomorphological evidence gathered during the field investigation in the October 2023 and utilizes Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) data collected to reconstruct the occurred debris flow-slide event. Additionally, it explores considerations regarding the reactivation of landslide processes, dam stability, and the future evolution of the impounded lake (Făgețel Lake: water surface area of 9,500 m2; maximum depth 10 m). Furthermore, the lessons learned and future actions required to prevent further mass movement associated with debris flow-slide processes in prone areas of the Eastern Carpathians are discussed.

Spatio-Temporal Variation and Future Sustainability of Net Primary Productivity from 2001 to 2021 in Hetao Irrigation District, Inner Mongolia

The Hetao Irrigation District in Inner Mongolia, a vital grain-producing region in northern China, faces growing environmental challenges. Studying net primary productivity (NPP) is essential for understanding spatiotemporal vegetation shifts and guiding locally adapted restoration and management efforts. Utilizing MOD17A3/NPP data, this study applies the Theil–Sen median trend, Mann–Kendall significance, and the Hurst index to scrutinize the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of NPP from 2001 to 2021 and forecast future changes in the area. The findings reveal cyclic temporal trends, forming a “∧” shape with initial increases followed by decreases, notably during the July to August period each year. The multi-year average NPP exhibits a slight upward fluctuation trend, averaging 172.40 gCm−2a−1. Peaks occur approximately every three years, reaching the highest average in 2012 at 218.96 gCm−2a−1. Spatially, NPP distribution stays consistent over the years, influenced by various land cover types, especially cropland, shaping the spatial patterns. Monthly and yearly NPP trends over the 21 years indicate a significant decrease in May and June, with other months mostly showing a non-significant increase. The Hurst index for monthly and yearly NPP changes over 21 years shows relatively high weak anti-persistence. In summary, over the past 21 years, the NPP trend in the study area has not significantly improved and is expected to decline in the future. This study offers data support and a scientific foundation for refining the carbon cycle model, quantifying vegetation carbon sequestration capacity, addressing climate change policies, and striving for carbon peak and neutrality in the Hetao Irrigation District.

Estimation of Surface Sensible Heat Flux due to Precipitation over CONUS and Its Impact on Urban Extreme Precipitation Modeling

Abstract The surface sensible heat flux induced by precipitation (QP) is a consequence of the temperature difference between the surface and the rain droplets. Despite its seemingly negligible nature, QP is frequently omitted from both meteorological and climatological models. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge the numerous occasions in which the instantaneous values of QP can be significant, particularly during extreme precipitation events. This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of QP across the contiguous United States (CONUS) utilizing high-resolution reanalysis, observational data, and numerical modeling to examine the influence of QP on precipitation and the surface energy budget. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution of QP climatology is analogous to that of precipitation, with magnitudes ranging from 2 to 3 W m−2 predominantly over the Midwest and Southeast regions. A seasonal analysis of QP reveals that the highest values occurring during the June–August (JJA) period, averaging 3.18 W m−2. Peak QP values of approximately 4 W m−2 are observed during JJA over the Great Plains region. We hypothesize that the QP during an extreme precipitation event would be nonnegligible and have a significant impact on the local weather. To test this conjecture, we perform high-resolution simulations with and without QP during an extreme precipitation event over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA). The results show that the QP may be a dominant factor compared to other components of surface heat flux during the zenith of precipitation hours. Also, QP has the potential to not only diminish precipitation but also alter and reconfigure the remaining surface energy budget components.

Reproductive Seasonality, Estrous Cycle, Pregnancy, and the Recurrence of Postpartum Estrus Based on Long-Term Profiles of Fecal Sex Steroid Hormone Metabolites regarding Zoo-Housed Female Golden Takins (Budorcas taxicolor bedfordi).

This study investigates the non-invasive monitoring of the endocrine ovarian activities of captive female golden takins (Budorcas taxicolor bedfordi) based on long-term fecal sex steroid hormone metabolite dynamics. Fecal progesterone (P4) metabolite dynamics were monitored in nine females for 0.5-15 years between 2004 and 2022. Fecal estradiol-17β (E2) and estrone (E1) metabolites were measured during certain estrous cycles, and fecal E1 metabolite concentrations were measured during all gestation periods. The breeding season of the captive animals was mainly between May and December, and they were polyestrous animals whose breeding season begins during the long-day period. The onset of the breeding season occurred slightly earlier as age increased. The mean age (±SD) at puberty based on fecal P4 metabolite dynamics was 4.1 ± 2.9 years. The first conception ages ranged from 2.3-10.2 years. The mean estrous cycle period (±SEM) was 25.4 ± 1.1 days, and mounting and mating occurred in periods of low fecal P4 metabolite levels during the breeding season. The mean gestation period (±SD) from the estimated mating date to the calving date was 253.9 ± 5.7 days, and the fecal P4 metabolite distribution during pregnancy was bimodal. Fecal estrone metabolite levels gradually increased 21 weeks before delivery, peaked during the week of delivery, and then markedly decreased in the first week after delivery. Estrus resumed in the first April-August period after delivery (mean ± SD; 103.5 ± 40.9 days) or in May of the year after delivery (421.0 ± 16.5 days). This study revealed that the estrous cycle and pregnancy of female golden takins can be determined by fecal progesterone metabolite dynamics and that fecal estrone metabolite dynamics increases toward parturition and are useful for predicting the date of delivery. This endocrinological information is important for planned breeding efforts for the golden takins.

Source term analysis and impact study during a hypothetical accident in Haiyang nuclear power plant

Since 2018, the use of AP1000 nuclear technology has been growing due to its advantages in terms of nuclear safety and security. Knowing that the occurrence rate of the serious nuclear reactor accidents has increased due to the natural disasters that the world has encountered in recent decades, such as earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, etc., we propose to carry out an impact study and analyze the consequences of these accidents, with the aim of avoiding exposure of the public and workers to ionizing radiation.This work is divided into two sections: firstly, calculate the source term by using the ORIGEN-JR depletion code, and compare the obtained results with those published in the document AP1000 Design Control. The obtained results are in agreement with the literature. Secondly, starting from the results of the source term calculation, we have evaluated the atmospheric dispersion using health HotSpot code. The Total Effective Doses (TED) is estimated over two meteorological periods: the first period, from April to August, and the second one, from September to March. The simulation results showed that the TED was higher, around 27 Sv at 0.6 km from the source during the April–August period. However, for the second period, the TED is about 8 Sv at 2 km from the source. Generally, the TED of all radionuclide groups exceeds the IAEA annual regulatory limits, which are one millisievert per year (1 mSv/year) for public exposure and twenty millisieverts per year (20 mSv/year) for occupational exposure of workers. Therefore, the probability of risks to workers, the public, and the environment rises. There are generic criteria for acute doses, according to which preventive actions must be taken in all circumstances in order to minimize the serious effects of radionuclides on the population.

Pengaruh Perputaran Modal Kerja Terhadap Laba

This research method uses a descriptive analysis approach with the variables used being working capital turnover and profit with the research data source being secondary data. The author uses data collection techniques, namely observation and documentation in the form of financial reports (Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss) and interviews. Based on the results of research and discussions that have been carried out, it can be concluded that working capital turnover tends to increase from November - December, increasing every period, but in the August period it decreased to minus, this shows that the company's working capital has not been effective and inadequate in increasing profit at Miby Parfum Medan. And profits decreased in September, the decrease was due to increasing expenses. The decrease was due to quite high costs incurred while net profit experienced a decline.

Food Selectivity in Juvenile Three-Spined Stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus L. (Gasterosteidae) at Nursery Grounds in the White Sea

The spatial and temporal variability in the dietary preferences of juvenile three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus were studied across the typical coastal habitats of Keret Archipelago, Kandalaksha Bay(the White Sea). The sampling of fish using a beach seine was conducted in the late July–early August period and in late August. Additionally, zooplankton samples were collected to conduct a quantitative assessment of the abundance of potential prey items. The similarity percentage (SIMPER) analysis was applied to the data obtained from the stomach content and revealed the five planktonic taxa most prominently contributing to the diet of juvenile sticklebacks. Among these, the copepod Temora longicornis was the most important prey item at marine sites, while Acartia longiremis dominated the diet of fish in the marine lagoon. The calculation of the selectivity index revealed that some taxa (such as A. longiremis) were always avoided by juvenile fish, whereas the selectivity of some taxa increased in late August. In general, juvenile sticklebacks demonstrated a pronounced individual variation in their selectivity, even when a particular prey item was selected positively during the whole period of study. Our data highlight that despite the predominant consumption of easily available prey by juvenile sticklebacks, they demonstrate taxonomic- and size-specific prey selectivity.

Dendrochronological Analysis of One-Seeded and Intermediate Hawthorn Response to Climate in Poland

Although the hawthorn is not a forest-forming species, and it has no high economic significance, it is a very valuable component of forests, mid-field woodlots or roadside avenues. The literature, however, lacks information on the growth rate, growth phases, or growth–climate–habitat relationship for trees of this genus. This work aimed to establish the rate of growth of Craraegus monogyna and C. xmedia Bechst growing in various parts of Poland, in various habitats; analyze the growth–climate relationship; and distinguish dendrochronological regions for these species. Samples were taken using a Pressler borer from nine populations growing in different parts of Poland, from a total of 192 trees (359 samples). The tree-ring width was measured down to 0.01 mm. The average tree-ring width in the studied hawthorn populations ranged from 1.42 to 3.25 mm/year. Using well-established cross-dating methods, nine local chronologies were compiled with tree ages between 45 and 72 years. Dendroclimatic analyses (pointer year analysis, correlation and response function analysis) were performed for a 33-year period from 1988 to 2020, for which all local chronologies displayed EPS &gt; 0.85. The tree-ring width in the hawthorn populations depended mostly on temperature and rainfall through the May–August period. High rainfall and the lack of heat waves through these months cause an increase in cambial activity and the formation of wide tree rings. Conversely, rainfall shortages through this period, in conjunction with high air temperatures, caused growth depressions. Cluster analysis enabled the identification of two dendrochronological regions among the hawthorn in Poland: a western and eastern region, and a single site (CI), whose separation was most likely caused by contrasting habitat and genetic conditions. The obtained results highlight the need for further study of these species in Poland and other countries.

PENERAPAN DATA MINING PADA PENJUALAN PRODUK ELEKTRONIK

Surya Jaya Electronic &amp; Furniture, the author found many obstacles due to the accumulation of annual sales data. This made it difficult for the company to know the availability of existing goods and could not predict which goods or products were most in demand by customers and sold the most. Implementation of data mining with the a priori algorithm on Surya Jaya Electronic &amp; Furniture found that in June there were 23 data points for item set 2, 8 data points for item set 3, and 35 data points for item set 4. In the July period, there were 19 data points for item set 2, 13 data points for item set 3, and 33 data points for item set 4, and in the August period, there were 15 data points for item set 2, 1 data point for item set 3, and 7 data points for item set 4.

Impact of assimilating NOAA VIIRS aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations on global AOD analysis from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Abstract. Global monitoring of aerosols is required to analyse the impacts of aerosols on air quality and to understand their role in modulating the climate variability. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides near-real-time forecasts and reanalyses of aerosols using the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), constrained by the assimilation of MODIS and Polar Multi-Sensor Aerosol Optical Properties (PMAp) aerosol optical depth (AOD). Given the potential end of lifetime of MODIS AOD, implementing new AOD observations in the CAMS operational suite is a priority to ensure the continuity of the CAMS forecast performances. The objective of this work is to test the assimilation of the NOAA VIIRS AOD product from S-NPP and NOAA20 satellites in the IFS model. Simulation experiments assimilating VIIRS on top or in place of MODIS were carried out from June 2021 to November 2021 to evaluate the impacts on the AOD analysis. For maritime aerosol background, the assimilation of VIIRS and the use of VIIRS from NOAA20 as an anchor reduce the analysis AOD values compared to MODIS-based experiments, in which the analysis values were too high due to the positive bias of MODIS/Terra over ocean. Over land, the assimilation of VIIRS induces a large increase in the analysis over biomass burning regions where VIIRS shows larger AOD than MODIS due to differences in the aerosol models and cloud filtering between MODIS and VIIRS retrieval algorithms. For dust source regions, the analysis is reduced when VIIRS is assimilated on top of or in place of MODIS, particularly over the Sahara, the Arabian Peninsula and a few places in Asia in the July–August period. The assimilation of VIIRS leads to an overall reduction of the bias in AOD analysis evaluated against AERONET measurements, with the largest bias reduction over Europe and desert and maritime sites.

Role of Nursing Care in Recovery of Burn Injuries among the Victims of Domestic Violence

Background: Burns due to domestic violence are responsible for physical abuse as well as emotional scars in long term consequences. Domestic violence can range from physical harm to sexual, psychological, and economic abuse, and it often escalates over time. Burns are one of the finest manifestation of domestic violence including severe pain, disfigurement and long term health complications. The recovery phase is also subject to mental, social and physical stress. Survivors are subject to experience severe anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. Nursing care is what that can be answer to all above described mental and physical stress in the recovery phase or period of hospitalization. Aim: To explore whether the nursing care do play a role in recovery of burn injuries inflicted due to domestic violence. Methodology: The study included 250 victims of burns due to domestic violence who presented in AED of the Jinnah Hospital and filtered in the medicolegal clinic of the AIMC Lahore during the January to August period of the year 2018. An observational researched method was applied to rural and urban areas of the jurisdiction of said research setting. Results: The study results show that professional nursing care and specialized health services plays a pivotal role with a grossly significant p value of 0.000 helping the burn victims of domestic violence to recover from their injuries as compared to general nursing services. The terminal outcome as also found significant with 0.025 p value. Conclusion: The specialized health services and professional nursing care can significantly alter the outcome of the burn injuries. The likely outcome and complications can be avoided if a better and targeted services in reference to burn care could be rendered to the injuries of burns due to domestic violence. Hence the study emphasizes on the practicality of the role of nursing care as a vital aspect in terms of recovering from burning injuries. Keywords: Burns, Domestic, Violence, Nursing Care, Injuries, Recovery

Quantification of model uncertainty in sub-daily extreme precipitation projections

Sub-daily precipitation is projected to intensify more rapidly with global warming, that in turn may lead to frequent disasters such as flash floods, landslides, etc. However, the precipitation projections from Global Climate Model (GCMs) are known to be highly uncertain, with an increasing magnitude at finer spatio-temporal scales. Hence, realistic quantification of the inherent uncertainty is vital to improve the confidence in these projections, for the mitigation/adaptation applications. In the present study, the model uncertainty in sub-daily (3-hourly) precipitation extremes is estimated, by considering 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, during four different seasons for the near (2026–45) and far-future (2081–99) periods. An uncertainty quantification approach using “mutual information based independence weight” is proposed in this study, to account the linear and nonlinear dependence between GCMs along with the equitability property. The CMCC-CM model is found to be the most independent model having highest independence weight (0.064) in the ensemble. The uncertainty in northern hemisphere is found to be more during June to August period, whereas in southern hemispheres during December to February period. Overall, there is an increase in model uncertainty in far-future, especially over the equatorial regions. However, the behaviour of different indices is not in agreement with each other. For example, extreme characteristics such as monthly maximum 3hourly-precipitation has increasing uncertainty; whereas the mean characteristic like, simple hourly-precipitation intensity index possesses unchanging uncertainty. Model uncertainty is most sensitive to the precipitation characteristics of the regions, followed by elevation, a significant geophysical factor. The study also highlighted the need for model improvement over the grids having elevation <2 km and above 4 km. The study identifies the possible regions, seasons, factors etc. where model improvement can be made. Moreover, it is anticipated that improvement of resolution, updation of convective parameterization schemes and land surface parameterization schemes in GCMs may enhance the skill of GCMs and can improve the confidence in the projection of precipitation on sub-daily scale. • Seasonal model uncertainty is estimated to assess the reliability in the projections of sub-daily precipitation extremes. • Mutual information-based weighting technique is used to establish the independence weight of models. • Different aspects of sub-daily precipitation exhibit differing uncertainty, in terms of magnitude and also temporal evolution. • Precipitation intensity remains the dominant factor behind model uncertainty, but geophysical influences cannot be ignored. • Reliability on the sub-daily mean characteristics improves with time; whereas that on extreme characteristics declines.

Synoptic Features of August Heavy Rainfall Episodes Accompanied By a Quasi-Stationary Front Over the Korean Peninsula and Its Relationship With the Western Pacific Subtropical High

In this study, we investigated the synoptic features of the August 26–27, 2018 heavy rainfall episode, which was accompanied by a quasi-stationary front over the Korean peninsula, as well as its relationship with the climatological characteristics of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), using reanalysis and observational data. Through a case study, we analyzed the synoptic environment and frontal structure of the heavy rainfall event by comparing it with a heavy rainfall event associated with a quasi-stationary front that occurred on June 26–27, 2018 (during the Changma period). The case study indicates that the environment and structure of the quasi-stationary fronts in both events exhibited common characteristic features: an extended WPSH and strong low-level winds along the western or northwestern edge of the WPSH and a northward tilted frontal structure. Although differences in the moisture transport path were observed (southwesterly for the Changma event and southerly for the August event), their contributions to maintaining the quasi-stationary fronts were comparable around the Korean peninsula. We further investigated the climatological characteristics of these two heavy rainfall episodes for a 30 year period (1990–2019). We identified heavy rainfall days similar to those of the case study using pattern correlations of the 850 hPa geopotential height anomaly. The occurrence frequencies for each period indicate that the environmental features of the Changma event can be regarded as the typical heavy rainfall environment during the Changma period, whereas the environmental features of the August event were not typical for heavy rainfall during August. The main difference between similar and different cases to the August event is the expansion of the WPSH. Analysis of the relationship between annual variations in the WPSH indices and the occurrence frequency of heavy rainfall days during each August period also indicates that heavy rainfall with a quasi-stationary front similar to the August event is closely related to WPSH expansion.

Analysis of Family Independence towards Health Policy in Prevention of Covid-19 in Hypertension Patients in the Working Area of Antang Health Center, Makassar City

Family health independence includes: being able to recognize various health problems, being able to decide on appropriate nursing actions, being able to carry out proper daily care at home, being able to support and improve the health of all family members, being able to take advantage of health services. The number of affected communities in the Puskesmas is less than the standard set by the government. In 2021 for the January – August period, the number of visits for hypertension cases at the Antang Health Center in Makassar City was 1,851 of the total number of non-communicable disease cases, where the number of visits for hypertension cases in the August 2021 period was 268 cases with confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Manggala sub-district as an area. Its work reached 5,032 cases as of August 28, 2021. Qualitative research with a phenomenological approach. Interviews were conducted with 11 informants, including 5 patients with hypertension, 5 patients' families, and 1 health worker. Data collection techniques using in-depth interview techniques, observation techniques and documentation techniques. The validity of the data using triangulation, namely triangulation of data sources, triangulation of theories, and triangulation of methods. The results showed that family independence in patients with hypertension had been carried out very well and full of attention, based on this it was found that the level of family independence was at the 4th level, namely accepting health workers to take active promotive actions. Health workers have also made regular visits and checked the health of patients, provided education, and brought medicines needed by patients, health workers also provided education regarding the prevention of COVID-19 to families and patients and also the dangers of complications between hypertension and Covid-19.

Flow Resistance in Lowland Rivers Impacted by Distributed Aquatic Vegetation

This study addressed a research concern that employing a fixed value for the bed roughness coefficient in lowland rivers (mostly sand-bed rivers) is deemed practically questionable in the presence of a mobile bed and time-dependent changes in vegetation patches. Accordingly, we set up 45 cross-sections in four lowland streams to investigate seasonal flow resistance values within a year. The results revealed that the significant sources of boundary resistance in lowland rivers with the lower regime flow were bed forms and aquatic vegetation. The study then used flow discharge as an influential variable reflecting the impacts of the above-mentioned sources of resistance to flow. The studied approach ended up with two new flow resistance predictors which simply connected the dimensionless unit discharge to flow resistance factors, Darcy-Weisbach (f) and Manning (n) coefficients. A comparison of the computed and measured flow resistance values also indicated that 87–89% of the data sets were within ± 20% error bands. The flow resistance predictors were also verified against large independent sets of field and flume data. The obtained predictions using the developed predictors might overestimate flow resistance factors by 40% for other lowland rivers. Based on a different view, according to the findings of this research, seasonal variation of vegetation abundance could show the augmentation in flow resistance values, both f and n, in low summer flows when vegetation covers river bed and side banks. The highest amount of flow resistance was observed during the summer period, during the July–August period.

Observed and Modeled Urban Heat Island and Sea-Breeze Circulation Interactions: A Shanghai Case Study

Abstract Urban heat island (UHI) and sea–land-breeze systems are well-known and important characteristics of the climate of coastal cities. To model these, the accurate estimation of the surface energy balance (SEB) is a key factor needed to improve local-scale simulations of thermodynamic and dynamic boundary circulations. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model with a single-layer urban canopy model (WRF/SLUCM), with parameters derived from MODIS and local GIS information, is used to investigate the UHI and sea-breeze circulations (SBC) in the megacity of Shanghai. The WRF/SLUCM can reproduce observed urban radiation and SEB fluxes, near-surface meteorological variables, and the evolution of the UHI and SBC. Simulations for an August period show the maximum UHI tends to drift northwest in the afternoon, driven by the prevailing southeast wind. The sea breeze lasts for about 4 h and is strongest between 1200 and 1400 local time (UTC + 8 h). The interaction between UHI and SBC is evident with low-level convergence, upward motion, and moisture transport from the sea and urban breezes simulated. An urban circulation (horizontal/vertical/time scales: ∼20 km/∼1.5 km/∼3 h) with thermal vertical motions (∼1.5 m s−1) above the urban area and an SBC (horizontal/vertical/time scales: 6–7 km/∼1 km/2–3-h) above the northern coastal suburb occur. Combined the sea breeze and southerly winds form a low-level wind shear (convergence zone) ∼5 km from the coast that penetrates ∼20 km inland to the urban center. Using the WRF/SLUCM simulations we improve understanding of the complex spatial dynamics of summertime urban heating in coastal megacities, such as Shanghai.

Investor attention and cryptocurrency price crash risk: a quantile regression approach

PurposeMotivated by the lure of cryptocurrencies for retail investors, whose concentrated holdings are particularly exposed to price crash risk, this paper aims to study the relationship between investor attention and crash risk for a range of cryptocurrencies.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts a quantile regression approach to determine the effect of investor attention on crash risk. Crash risk is measured using the negative coefficient of skewness and down up volatility.FindingsThis study finds that the connection is concentrated in the tails of the crash risk distribution. Investor attention has a positive relationship with crash risk when crash risk is low (below-median quantiles) and negative when crash risk is high (above-median). The findings are consistent for different measures of crash risk, for alternate internet searches and for a panel of large cryptocurrencies in addition to Bitcoin. This study also notes seasonality in crash risk, with higher crash risk during the June–August period and lower crash risk in the Halloween period that runs from November to April.Originality/valueThe results provide insights that are not apparent in previous analyses of cryptocurrency price crash risk. The results are particularly important for retail investors, who constitute a large portion of the cryptocurrency market, as they tend to hold concentrated investments and so a price crash of a single asset may have a large bearing on their wealth.

Improving the Varroa (Varroa destructor) Control Strategy by Brood Treatment with Formic Acid-A Pilot Study on Spring Applications.

Simple SummaryThe varroa mite control in a natural and sustainable way is critical for beekeeping, taking into account the importance of honey bees for pollination as well as for obtaining clean products. In recent time, new procedures for varroosis treatment in the reproductive phase were developed, which can be applied any time during the active season as they use volatile organic acids, widely accepted for organic beekeeping. Such a procedure consists of brushing the capped brood with formic acid, which is very effective in killing varroa mites but also minimally invasive for honey bee colonies. The importance of varroosis treatments before winter bee rearing is evident and widely accepted, as most of the actual treatments are limited to the late active season applications for different reasons, especially because they are focused on phoretic mites. Having in view the flexibility of the new procedure’s application in the whole period of the active season, we started a pilot study to preliminarily test the effectiveness of spring applications on varroa mite control. The results show significant differences in brood infestation between experimental and control groups, in the same apiary, which gives clear indications that spring applications could be beneficial for improving the varroa control strategies.The importance of varroosis control in a natural and sustainable way is crucial for beekeeping, having in view the varroa mite impact on honey bee health. In the last years, we developed a highly effective procedure for treating varroa in capped brood using volatile organic acids. This procedure can be applied at any moment of the active season as it uses organic substances. Taking into account the necessity to drastically reduce the level of varroa infestation in colonies before winter bee rearing, we developed a relatively simple pilot study to preliminarily test the impact of spring treatments on varroa infestation level in brood, to be evaluated in summer when, naturally, the population of mites increases. To test the hypothesis, two experimentally treated groups and a control group were used. The treatment consisted of brushing all capped brood with formic acid of 65% concentration in one and two applications. The obtained results show very significant differences between the treated and control groups in terms of infested cell percentages evaluated in the July–August period. Consequently, the spring treatments could be an important tool in limiting the varroa mite multiplication, but further experiments are necessary to test and adapt them to different local conditions.