Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Research Articles

Impact of Crop Production on Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1981 – 2018

This study examined the impact of crop production on economic growth in Nigeria utilizing annual time series data from 1981 to 2018. The study used Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction test, the impulse response functions and variance decomposition for data analysis after the data series were checked against unit root problem using the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. The study tested and found that increase in the production of cassava, cocoyam, groundnut, guinea corn, maize, millet, rice and yam spurs economic growth in Nigeria in the long-run except for cotton production and with only groundnut production contributing significantly to the output of the Nigerian economy in the short- run. The study, therefore recommends that the Nigerian government should encourage farmers in the production of crops through supply of fertilizer to increase their productivity and food output while improving their use of modern seedlings and technology in the production that may in turn increase the crop production while farmers should be encouraged to adapt best practices in farming to maximize crop yield.

Analysis of the Effects of Money Market Fund Mobilization on the Dynamics of Nigerian Economic Growth

Economic growth is a function of some productive efforts among which savings mobilizations is considered very vital. This study examines savings mobilization strategy and its impact on Nigeria’s economic growth during the year 2001-2022.This is vested with the objectives to investigate the effect of banking density, savings rates and money supply on economic growth. The study relies on time series data sourced from the publication of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (GDPGR) was adopted as dependent variable, while Banking Density (BD), Savings Rates (SR) and Money Supply (MS) were the independent variables. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test was employed, to test the stationarity. The Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ADRL) was used to ascertain the relationship between the variables alongside Vector Error Correction Model (VCM). Post estimation diagnostic tools used include Breuch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test and the CUSUM test for stability. From the ARDL, β-coefficient and the associated probabilities were adopted to determine the extent and direction of relationship on economic growth. Data were tested at 5% level of significance; it was discovered that banking density and savings rates affected economic growth positively but with insignificant effects, while money supply affected economic growth negatively with insignificant effect. The study therefore recommends amongst others, that stakeholders, be directed towards entrenching higher banking density as opposed to banking desert, and that money supply should be made dynamic in accordance with economic realities.

Analisis Kausalitas Nilai Tukar Rupiah/USD, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nikkei225, Shanghai Index Composite (SSEC) Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG)

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative effect on global stock markets. In addition, the increase in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 further increased the volatility of the exchange rate. This study aims to determine whether there is a causal relationship between the Exchange Rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the Nikkei225 Index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) and the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). The research method used is the Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test, and Granger Causality. The results of the study using Granger Causality indicate that the Exchange Rate, DJIA Index, and Nikkei225 Index have a causal relationship to the Composite Stock Price Index. The SSEC index does not have a causal relationship with the Composite Stock Price Index. This means that the JCI movement has the influence of the Exchange Rate, the DJIA Index, and the Nikkei225 Index.

Effect of Selected Macro-Economic Variables on Securities Performance at the Nairobi Securities Exchange, Kenya

The equity securities market is an integral component of any country's financial system, and its performance is intertwined with the broader macro-economic environment. Equity securities market determines the state of the economy; this is through stock and asset prices fluctuations as well as company earnings with corresponding dividend policies, and multiple macroeconomic variables. The inherent problem has been how do changes in specific macro-economic variables affect the performance of the equity securities market at the Security Exchange. This study sought to establish the influence of the selected macro-economic variables on equity securities market performance at Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE). The specific objectives were to establish the effects of exchange rate; interest rate; inflation rate; money supply; and Gross Domestic Product on equity share prices fluctuations based on the NSE-20 from when the economy was liberalized. The study was guided by the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the Arbitrage Pricing Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis. An explanatory research design was used to determine the effect of selected macro-economic variables on securities exchange market performance. Annual time series secondary data for the periods 1986 to 2022 was used. Findings of diagnostic test demonstrated that there was no multicollinearity among the independent variables, residuals were homoscedastic, and there was no autocorrelation among the residuals. The results of Shapiro wilk normality test showed that the study's variables were normally distributed. The Augmented dickey fuller unit root test both showed that there was no unit root and that the variables had a short run relationship. The study findings were: the exchange rate (indicating negative and significant effect on equity security indices; the interest rate indicating negative and significant effect on equity security indices; inflation rate indicating positive and significant effect on equity security indices; money supply which indicates a negative and significant effect on equity security indices; and gross domestic product had a positive and significant effect on equity security indices. The study concluded that exchange rate, interest rate and money supply significantly affect equity security indices negatively while inflation rate and gross domestic product significantly affect equity security indices positively. The study therefore recommends the Central bank of Kenya to employ measures intervening foreign exchange markets to stabilize the currency, implement appropriate interest rate policies, and maintaining adequate foreign exchange reserves. The policy makers should prioritize price stability and monitor the growth of money supply to ensure it remains in line with the country's economic fundamentals. Policy makers should also strike a delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth by closely monitoring economic indicators and adjusting interest rates accordingly.

Assessing the Impact of Cashless Banking on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Notwithstanding the availability of cashless banking instrument in Nigeria, its definite impact on economic growth has not been well established. The goal of this study is to determine how Nigeria's economic growth is impacted specifically by cashless banking. Multiple regression analysis employing the ordinary least-square (OLS) approach was used in a quantitative design. However, the federal office of statistics and the CBN annual report provided the secondary data for this study. The relevance of the data is examined using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root tests were also used in several tests to determine the viability of the model assumptions. The data indicate that point-of-sale terminals were relevant for economic growth throughout the study period. The results shows that cashless banking have significant effect on GDP in the long run. Users' education, availability in the hinterlands and security of the gadgets for the operators could enhance wide usage and acceptability. The government and bankers should work harder on building infrastructure and launching aggressive public awareness efforts in the meanwhile.

Savings Mobilization Efforts of the Nigerian Money Market and Economic Growth

Economic growth is a function of some productive efforts among which savings mobilizations is considered very vital. This study examined saving mobilization efforts of the Nigerian money market and the effects on economic growth during the year 2001 – 2022.Vested with the objectives to investigate the effect of banking density, savings rates and money supply on economic growth. The study relied on time series data sourced from the publication of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (GDPGR) was adopted as dependent variable, while Banking Density (BD), Savings Rates (SR) and Money Supply (MS) were the independent variables. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test was employed, to test the stationarity. The Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ADRL) was used to ascertain the relationship between the variables alongside Vector Error Correction Model (VCM). Post estimation diagnostic tools used include; Breuch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test and the CUSUM test for stability. From the ARDL, β-coefficient and the associated probabilities were adopted to determine the extent and direction of relationship on economic growth. Data were tested at 5% level of significance, it was discovered that banking density and savings rates affected economic growth positively but with insignificant effects, while money supply affected economic growth negatively with insignificant effect. The study therefore recommends amongst other, that stakeholders, be directed towards entrenching higher banking density as opposed to banking desert, and that money supply should be made dynamic in accordance with economic realities.

Effects of energy consumption on human development and industrial sector performance in selected Sub-Saharan Africa and OECD countries: comparative analysis

ABSTRACT The objectives of this study are to implicitly investigate the relationship that exist between energy consumption (renewable and non-renewable energy) and human development (with the Human Development Index as proxy); and energy consumption and industrial sector performance (with industrial output as proxy) in selected sub-Saharan Africa and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Four groups of models were specified and estimated using Panel data for 21 countries according to income criteria from 1990 to 2022. These data were analyzed using Panel Ordinary Least Square (OLS) before which they were filtered with the use of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test while the Johansen cointegration test was used to justify the long-run relationship among all included variables. The findings of this study revealed that energy consumption was positively related and statistically significant in explaining changes in human development and industrial sector performance in the selected sub-Saharan Africa and the OECD countries. However, changes in Human Development Index (HDI) were not statistically significant in explaining changes inindustrial sector performance in both regions. The results of the estimated models revealed a three-way directional causality among the selected variables. Additionally, it was established that a significant gap exist in human development, energy consumption and industrial sector performance, in favour of the selected OECD countries. Furthermore, it was also established that energy consumption and industrial output are potent determinants of human development in the selected OECD and sub-Saharan African Countries.

CASH CRUNCH AND THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY

This study examined cash crunch and the Nigerian economy. To achieve this objective, relevant data used spanning from 1981-2022 were obtained for the review period from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Indicators. Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Unit root test, Granger causality and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression were the analytical tools for this study. Real Gross Domestic Product growth rate (RGDPgr) was used as the dependent variable, while Cash crunch proxy with prime lending rate (CC), Domestic credit by Banks to private sector (DCBPS), Loan to deposit ratio (LDR), Inflation Rate (INFR), Money supply growth rate (MSgr) as the independent variables. Based on the analysis, there exist positive relationship between RGDPgr, CC, DCBS, LDR, and M2gr and a negative relationship existed RGDPgr and INFR. The F-statistic of the regression output stood at 6.208930, this implies that the regression plane is statistically significant. It was also, revealed that cash crunch had negative and significant effect on the Nigerian economy C = -11.97721, P < 0.05 (0.0265 < 0.05), while the overall Prob.(F-Statistic) 0.000302 is less than the 0.05 level of significance implies that there is a statistical significant relationship between the variables. R2= 0.463044 implies that about 46.30% of the total variation in the model specified was accounted for by the independent variables. LDR is platykurtic, RGDPgr, CC, DCBPS, INFR and M2gr are leptokurtic, according to the descriptive analysis, which also showed that all the variables were normally distributed; All the variables were stationary and significant at their respective values. There is the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables indicated by Johansen co-integration equation. Therefore, cash crunch has negative effect on investment in an economy. In conclusion, cash crunch had negative and significant impact on the expansion of Nigerian economy for the period studied. The study recommended that the government through CBN should modified most of its tools and incorporate some of the macro prudential variables in its dealings so as to have robust grips of the economy with the intention of suppressing the adverse effect of inflationary pressure in the economy.
 Keywords: Cash Crunch, Domestic Credit By Banks To Private Sector, Inflation, Money Supply And Nigerian Economy.

Agricultural Financing and Economic Growth in Nigeria

This research investigated the impact of agricultural finance on the economic development of Nigeria between the years 1986 and 2022. The Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund, bank loans to farmers, government spending on agriculture, and real gross domestic product were used as substitutes for agricultural funding. This analysis relies on time-series data culled from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistics bulletin. This research utilised the following data analysis methods: the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression tool, the Error Correction Model technique, the Johansen Cointegration test, and the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. In congruent with the study’s results, there is a substantial relationship between agricultural bank loans and Nigeria’s real GDP. In addition, the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—the monetary worth of all final products and services produced inside Nigeria—is highly correlated with the amount of money the government spends on agriculture. A substantial and important relationship exists between Nigeria’s Real Gross Domestic Product and the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund. The results of the research indicate that the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund, government investment in agriculture, and bank loans all made substantial improvements to Nigeria’s economic development. It has been suggested, among other recommendations, that increasing the volume and size of agricultural loans by reducing the interest rate will facilitate greater economic development in the nation.

An Empirical Analysis of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators and Agricultural Value Added in Nigeria

This study seeks to establish the relationship between agriculture value added and some selected macroeconomic factors in Nigeria from 2000-2022. Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root tests, co-integration test with Auto regressive Distributed Lag Bound test, Auto regressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model analysis were carried out on the data for the variable. The results revealed that GDP per capita (LNGDPC) (proxy for market size) has negative affect on agriculture value added while exchange rate (LNREXR), foreign direct investment (LNFDI) (proxy for technology), and index of human capital per person (LNIHC) (proxy for labour) exhibit positive impact on agriculture value added in Nigeria in the long run. As such, Nigerian government should promote policies (security issues) that are directed at attracting more foreign direct investment inflow to the agricultural sector so as to boost technology and agriculture value added. Similarly, it is critical to invest in human capital through training and education, given that agricultural technology is rapidly evolving. Lastly, through fiscal and monetary policies management, it is also vital for Nigerian government to increase agriculture value added by controlling inflation and building a stable exchange rate that will enhance foreign exchange earnings, encourage flexibility and competitiveness of farmer.

Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate on Price Level in Nigeria

The study focus on Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate on Price Level in Nigeria from 1988 to 2016 with variables as Inflation, exchange rate, tariff rate, import and interest rate. The research employed the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) regression method with the pre-test of Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test. The regression result showed a negative and insignificant relationship between exchange rate and inflation, tariff rate was negative and significant in relationship with inflation, while import was positively and insignificantly related to inflation, interest rate was having a positive but not significant relationship with inflation. We recommend that moderate or realistic tariff rate be negotiated among trading partners. Also local production of goods for export that will counter the negative impact of import to avoid imported inflation and strict monitoring of the activity of CBN and commercial banks in exchange rate dealing to avoid unnecessary and unproductive use of dollars.

Examining the agriculture-induced environment curve hypothesis and pollution haven hypothesis in Rwanda: the role of renewable energy

Agriculture has a main impact on increasing the economy of most developing countries, and energy policies in fighting climate change have a vital role in strengthening economic growth. This paper studies the impact of agriculture, trade openness and green energy on CO2 emissions in Rwanda during 1990–2022. Phillips- Peron and Augmented Dickey fuller unit root test affirmed the stationary of data, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bound testing confirmed a long-run relationship among variables. The study employed an ARDL approach.Findings from long-run elasticities showed that 1% increase in agriculture productivity increased carbon dioxide emissions by 1.94%; 1% increase in trade openness increased carbon dioxide emissions by 0.16%; whereas 1% increase in renewable energy consumption and GDP per capita decreased carbon dioxide emissions by 2.71% and 2%, respectively. The result confirmed the induced environment curve and the pollution haven hypothesis in Rwanda. Moreover, green energy consumption and GDP per capita decreases CO2 emissions eventually, which supports the validity of environment Kuznets curve in Rwanda.The findings recommend that an increase in renewable energy usage and trade reforms accompanied by strong environmental policies to reduce CO2 emissions will develop the agriculture sector and regional economy.Graphical

EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE AND INTEREST RATES ON MANUFACTURING SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA: ARCH AND GARCH APPROACH

This study evaluates the effects of exchange, and interest rates on manufacturing sector performance in Nigeria. The data were sourced from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) and the Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the analysis. The unit root test was performed on the formulated model using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) method. The log of manufacturing sector contribution to GDP (MUFQ), exchange rate (LEXR), inflation rate (LIFR), and bank size (LBKS) were integrated at order zero I(0) while and the log of interest rate spread (LIRS). was stationary at order one I(1), as shown by the Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test. In order to determine whether there is a long-run relationship between interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation, a bound test was conducted using the Auto-regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model. High volatility in exchange and interest rates have a positive effect on manufacturing sector performance, as shown by the results of the Auto-regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bound test, and the results from Arch and Garch corroborate these findings. Auto-regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) results indicated a positive and statistically significant relationship between the exchange rate and the performance of the manufacturing sector over time at 0.05 level. However, bank size revealed a positive but insignificant relationship with manufacturing sector performance in the short-run, while the coefficient of interest rate spread and inflation rate were both negative and significantly influenced manufacturing sector performance in the current year period. The paper concludes that Nigeria's manufacturing sector is strongly correlated with the country's exchange and interest rates. The study recommended amongst others that as a result of too much dependence on oil, the federal government should peg the local currency rate and mandate the deposit money banks through the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) to maintain a single digit interest rate. This would boost investors’ confidence on the Nigerian economy as well as the financial system while efforts should be taken to diversify the economy to ease the pressure from the local currency.

Stock Market Integration and Corporate Investment in Nigeria: A Critical Analysis

Low level of corporate investment in Nigeria coupled with poor financial base of a single stock exchange market system bring the need for the study to critically examined the effect of stock market integration on corporate investment in Nigeria from 1986 to 2022. The study adopted Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The data used for this study were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Statistical Bulletin (2022). The ADF showed that the real exchange rate, lending interest rate, and trade openness were all integrated of order zero (∆ = 0); while, stock market integration and corporate investment were integrated of order one (∆ = 1). The ADF result showed that stock market integration exhibited a non-stability trend over the years, real exchange rate showed a negative sign but non-significant at 5%; while, lending interest rate and trade openness was negative and significant. The study concluded that stock market integration was volatile over the years which limited the rate of impacting corporate investment in Nigeria; while, lesser interest rate and trade liberation promote corporate investment. The study recommended that in order to fast ease stock market integration, which is crucial for economic progress, the Nigerian Exchange Group NGX should aim toward ensuring that each listed firm on the market have a strong market capitalization through encouraging different ownership structure to possess their respective stock value

Foreign Aids and Sustainable Development in Nigeria: An Application of Dynamic Least Squares Approach

The impact of foreign aid in donor and recipient countries is largely unsettled amongst existing studies, as well as, literature. This is attributed to the various arguments for and against the benefits of foreign aid, as it relates to sustainable development. As such, the study examined the effect of foreign aids on sustainable development in Nigeria from 1986-2021. The study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen Co-integration test, Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) and Granger Causality test. The ADF result showed that sustainable development, foreign aids, exchange rate, inflation rate and trade openness were stationary at first level difference. Also Johansen co-integration test confirmed a long-run relationship between the variables. The DOLS result revealed that, foreign aid, exchange rate and trade openness were significant with each exhibiting a direct link with sustainable development at 5%; while, that of foreign aid was at 10%. This suggests that inflow of foreign aids in different forms is essential for resource conservation. Also, inflation rate showed an inverse and significant link with sustainable development at 5%. In addition, a bi-directional causality was established between foreign aid and sustainable development. The study concluded that foreign aids in different forms, exchange rates stability and high exportation that comply with environmental sustainability boost Nigeria's sustainable development growth, but spiral inflation worsens it. Thus, it is advised that government should declare an emergency over environmental issues in order to guarantee an increase in the flow of foreign aid into environmental sustainability.

Investigating Asymmetric Effects of Electronic Payment on Money Supply for India using Non-linear ARDL Model

Money supply in India is analysed using a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to see how several factors, such as electronic payments, exchange rate, interest rates and inflation, affect the money supply. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test and the Phillips–Perron unit root test are utilized to confirm that the variables are stationary. In the bounds test of the NARDL as well as Johansen–Juselius cointegration test, this study finds evidence of cointegration amongst variable used in the study. NARDL testing model is employed to investigate the dissimilar influences on variables with short- and long-run dynamics. Short-term estimates suggest that the money supply ( M1) is most responsive to positive shocks involving retail payments, the exchange rate and interest rates, but negative shocks involving card payment and prepaid payment instruments. A reduction in card payment, as well as a positive increase in retail payment, the prepaid payment instrument, the exchange rate and the interest rate, would all have major effects on M3 in short run. In addition, a long-term finding demonstrates that all of the variables have a significant influence on the money supply ( M1) in its mixed form while all of the factors, with the exception of the one involving card payments, have a considerable impact on the money supply ( M3). Wald test results confirm the existence of asymmetric influences which can have significant lessons for policymakers.

Human Capital Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

This study examined the impact of human capital development on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. Annual time series data on the dependent variable, real gross domestic product growth rate (RGDPG), alongside the independent variables, including government expenditure on education, government expenditure on health as well as gross fixed capital formation were sourced and collected from Central Bank of Nigeria [1] Statistical Bulletin, while the annual time series data on primary, secondary and tertiary school enrolments were collected from UNESCO [2] Institute for Statistics. The series were tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test. The result showed a mix of variables integrated of order one, I(1) and of order zero, I(0). The Bounds test for cointegration showed the existence of long run relationship amongst the variables as the F-statistic value of approximately 3.43 was found to be higher than the 5% upper bounds value of 3.28. The results of the ARDL method of analysis revealed that in the long run, government expenditure on education and tertiary school enrolment had insignificant negative impact on economic growth while government expenditure on health, gross fixed capital formation, primary and secondary school enrolments had insignificant positive impacts on economic growth. On the other hand, in the short run, while government expenditure on education exhibited significant negative impact on economic growth, government expenditure on health had significant positive impact on economic growth. Gross fixed capital formation impacted positively on economic growth, primary school enrolment had negative impact while secondary and tertiary enrolments had positive impact on economic growth. Consequently, the study recommended among others that the government should set incremental annual targets expenditure on health aimed at achieving the Abuja agreement of 15% of total public expenditure in the health sector. This will create multiplier effect in the long run and serve as a boost to economic growth in the country.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF BREXIT REFERENDUM ON THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EURO AND POUND STERLING: RESIDUAL AUGMENTED LEAST SQUARE BASED EVIDENCE

Purpose- The aim of this study is to investigate the economic effects of Brexit from the viewpoint of exchange rates. This research studies the impact of Brexit on long-run relationship between euro and pound sterling. It is crucial to assess how Britain’s vote to leave the European Union affects long-term relationship between euro and pound sterling because such action may have significant financial and economic implications on both economies (Diez et al., 2019; Korus & Celebi, 2019; Nagarakatte & Natchimuthu, 2022). Methodology- This study utilizes daily trade-weighted real effective exchange rate indices for euro (EUR) and pound sterling (GBP) over the period of January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2019 to investigate the impact of Brexit referendum took place on June 23, 2016 on the long-run relationship between euro and pound sterling. We exclude European sovereign debt crisis and pandemic periods. As stated previously, this study considers June 23, 2016 as the reference to assess the impact of Brexit on the relationship between currencies. Therefore, our analysis involves three periods including full sample period, pre- and post-Brexit. Empirical investigation relies on residual augmented least squares (RALS) based approach. Due to Im & Schmidt (2008), Im, Lee, & Tieslau (2014), and Lee, Lee, & Im (2015), we use RALS-based unit root test and cointegration analysis. While traditional tests (augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root and Engle-Granger cointegration) assume that error terms are normally distributed, which is a very strict assumption, RALS-based tests relax that condition. We also conduct Granger (non-) causality test proposed by Toda & Yamamoto (1995) to investigate the direction(s) of possible causalities between euro and pound sterling for each period. Findings- RALS based unit root test results suggest that the time series of exchange rates contain unit root for full sample, pre- and post-Brexit periods. The only exception is the time series of sterling pound is I (0) in post-Brexit period. According to the unit root test results, we can conclude that foreign exchange markets in both economies follow weak form efficiency for all sample periods. However, this is not valid for the sub sample where the time series of pound sterling is stationary at level, in post-Brexit. RALS based cointegration test results show that there is no cointegration between the time series of EUR and GBP. This general result is confirmed by both models, RALS ADL and RALS EG2. However, we observe a cointegrating relationship between two currencies in post-Brexit period when we treat GBP as the dependent variable. According to the Granger non-causality test results, we fail to reject null hypothesis and conclude that there is no causality running from EA to UK and vice versa for all sample periods. Test results reveal one exception. In the post-Brexit period, EUR Granger causes GBP implying that the past values of EUR are useful to forecast GBP. Conclusion- Interdependence of world economies is increasing as the financial integration is deepening. Key political, economic, and financial developments in the global world should be followed and assessed. Such developments at home or abroad may influence the prospects. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the outcomes of Brexit-like events that clearly have impact on economic and financial environment to take necessary actions. Keywords: Exchange rates, Brexit referendum, Euro, Pound Sterling, RALS Cointegration Test JEL Codes: C32, F31, G15

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Nigeria Economic Growth

The study analyzed the impact of foreign direct investment on Nigeria economic growth over the period of 1987- 2017. The main type of data used in this study is secondary; sourced from various publications of Central Bank of Nigeria, such as; Statistical Bulletin, Annual Reports and Statement of Accounts. The regression analysis of the Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test (ADF) and Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) were the estimation technique employed in this study to determine the stationarity/order of integration and the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and economic growth. The findings revealed and concluded that there exists a long run relationship between foreign direct investments on the Nigeria economic growth. That is, economic growth is directly related to inflow of foreign direct investment and it is also statistical significant at 5% level. This implies that foreign direct investment is an engine of economic growth. The paper recommended that government should liberalize the foreign sector in Nigeria so that all barriers to trade such as arbitrary tariffs; import and export duties and other levies should be reduced so as to encourage investors.

ARDL Approach to Government Revenue and Economic Performance of Nigeria: Post Structural Adjustment Programme

This study examined effect of government revenue on economic performance of Nigeria during the post structural adjustment programme and extracted relevant data in Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin from 1986 to 2018. The data were transformed to annual growth rates and subjected to stationarity test using the augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test so as to ascertain the suitable analytical technique. It was found that percentage change in real gross domestic product was integrated at first difference while percentage changes in oil and non-oil revenue were each integrated at level. Hence, we employed ARDL Bounds test to examine the relationship of the variables and established that oil revenue has no short run effect on economic performance while on the long run, there was positive but insignificant effect on economic performance of Nigeria during the period studied. The result also established that non-oil revenue has positive insignificant effect on economic performance both on short and long run equilibrium positions. However, the study provided evidence that collectively, government revenue has significant effect on economic performance of Nigeria and therefore recommends that government should enact and implement the petroleum industry governance bill and employ revenue on critical infrastructure that would stimulate growth of the economy