Attributable Disability-adjusted Life-years Research Articles

Population analysis of ischemic stroke burden, risk factors in the United States: pre- and post-mechanical thrombectomy

ObjectivesTo provide an updated analysis of the burden of ischemic stroke in the United States. Materials and methodsUsing the Global Burden of Disease database, we estimated age-standardized, population-adjusted rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years from 2010-2019, with regional comparisons. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years were compared in 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 to assess the potential effect of increased mechanical thrombectomy use. The attributable, disability-adjusted life years for twenty risk factors were estimated, ranked, and trended. ResultsIncident ischemic strokes decreased by 11.4% across the study period from 65.7 (55.9-77.3) to 58.2 (49.0-69.5) per 100,000. Prevalence (-8.2%), mortality (-1.9%), and disability-adjusted life years (-4.4%) all declined. All regions showed reductions in all burden measures, with the South consistently having the highest burden yet the largest reduction in incidence (-12.6%) and prevalence (-10.5%). Deaths (p<0.0001) and DALYs (p<0.0001) significantly differed between the pre- and post-mechanical thrombectomy eras. Total attributable disability-adjusted life years for all risk factors decreased from 304.7 (258.5-353.2) in 2010 to 288.9 (242.2-337.2) in 2019. In 2019, the risk factors with the most disability-adjusted life years were hypertension, hyperglycemia, and obesity with no state-based differences. Across the study period, disability-adjusted life years attributable to leading risk factors decreased among men but decreased less or increased among women. ConclusionsThe burden of ischemic stroke decreased during the study period. Declines in deaths and disability-adjusted life years suggest a mitigating impact of mechanical thrombectomy. While disability-adjusted life years attributable to leading risk factors decreased, sex-based disparities were observed.

Effect of air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in North Africa and the Middle East: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Air pollution is the sixth highest risk factor for attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in North Africa and the Middle East, but the relative importance of different subtypes of air pollution and any potential differences in their health effects by population demographics or country-level socioeconomic factors have not been fully explored. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of high ambient particulate matter less than 2·5 μm in size (PM) and ambient ozone air pollution on disease burden, mortality, and life expectancy in 21 countries in the North Africa and the Middle East super-region from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. The study data were derived from GBD 2019, examining data from 1999 to 2019 in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, the types of air pollution investigated included PM pollution and ambient ozone pollution. PM pollution itself was categorised as household air pollution from solid fuels and ambient PM pollution. The burden attributable to each risk factor, directly or indirectly, was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and DALYs. The summary exposure value (SEV) as the relative risk-weighted prevalence of exposure was extracted to compare the distribution of excess risk times the exposure level in a population where everyone is at maximum risk and ranges from zero (no excess risk exists in a population) to 100 (highest risk). The effect of air pollution on life expectancy was estimated via a cause-deleted life table analysis. The age-standardised DALYs rate attributable to air pollution declined by 44·5%, from 4884·2 (95% uncertainty interval 4381·5-5555·4) to 2710·4 (2317·3-3125·6) per 100 000 from 1990 to 2019. Afghanistan (6992·3, 5627·7-8482·7), Yemen (4212·4, 3241·3-5418·1), and Egypt (4034·8, 3027·7-5138·6) had the highest age-standardised DALYs rates attributable to air pollution in 2019 per 100 000, whereas Türkiye (1329·2, 1033·7-1654·7), Jordan (1447·3, 1154·2-1758·5), and Iran (1603·0, 1404·7-1813·8) had the lowest rates. During the study period, the age-standardised SEV of air pollution (PM and ambient ozone in total) decreased by 10·9% (5·8-17·7%) in the super-region, whereas the SEV of ambient ozone pollution alone increased by 7·7% (0·7-14·3%). Among the components of PM pollution, the SEV of ambient PM pollution increased by 40·1% (25·2-63·7%); however, the SEV of household air pollution from solid fuels decreased by 70·6% (64·1-77·0%). Among the investigated types of air pollution, 98·9% of the DALYs from air pollution in the super-region were attributable to PM pollution. If air pollution had been lowered to the theoretical minimum risk exposure levels for 2019, then the average life expectancy would have been 1·6 years higher. The burden attributable to air pollution substantially decreased in the study period across the super-region as a whole. Most of the burden from air pollution is attributed to PM pollution, the exposure to which has substantially increased in the past three decades. Interventions and policies that reduce population exposure to PM pollution could potentially increase the average life expectancy in the super-region. This finding calls for concerted efforts from governments and public health authorities in the super-region to tackle air pollution as an important threat to population health. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Determinants of cigarette smoking and smoking frequency among women of reproductive age in Nigeria: evidence from a nationwide cross-sectional survey

BackgroundSmoking is a leading cause of avoidable deaths and attributable disability-adjusted life years globally. Yet, the determinants of smoking practices among women are understudied. This study assessed the determinants of smoking and smoking frequency among women of reproductive age in Nigeria.Methods and materialsData from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) were used in this study (n = 41,821). The data were adjusted for sampling weight, stratification, and cluster sampling design. The outcome variables were smoking status and smoking frequency (daily smoking and occasional smoking). The predictor variables included women’s socio-demographic and household characteristics. Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to evaluate the association between outcome and predictor variables. All variables significant in bivariate analyses were further analysed using complex sample logistics regression. Statistical significance was set at a p-value < 0.05.ResultsThe prevalence of smoking among women of reproductive age is 0.3%. The prevalence of smoking frequency is 0.1% (daily) and 0.2% (occasionally). Overall, women aged 25-34 (AOR = 2.13, 95%CI: 1.06-4.29, ρ = 0.034), residing in the South-south region (AOR = 9.45, 95%CI: 2.04-43.72, ρ <0.001), being formerly married (AOR = 3.75, 95%CI: 1.52-9.21, ρ = 0.004), in female-headed households (AOR = 2.56, 95%CI: 1.29-5.08, ρ = 0.007) and owning mobile phones (AOR = 2.10, 95%CI: 1.13-3.90, ρ = 0.020) were more likely to smoke. Whereas female-headed households (AOR = 4.34, 95%CI: 1.37-13.77, ρ = 0.013) and being formerly married (AOR = 6.37, 95%CI: 1.67-24.24, ρ = 0.007) predisposed to daily smoking, age 15-24 (AOR = 0.11, 95%CI: 0.02-0.64, ρ = 0.014) was protective of daily smoking among women. Owning mobile phones (AOR = 2.43, 95%CI: 1.17-5.06, ρ = 0.018) increased the odds of occasional smoking among women.ConclusionsThe prevalence rates of smoking and smoking frequency are low among women of reproductive age in Nigeria. Women-centred approaches to tobacco prevention and cessation must become evidence-informed by incorporating these determinants into interventions targeting women of reproductive age in Nigeria.

Estimating the changing burden of disease attributable to interpersonal violence in South Africa for 2000, 2006 and 2012.

South Africa (SA)'s high rate of interpersonal violence persists as a leading public health problem for the country. The first South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA1) in 2000 quantified the long-term mental and physical health burden attributable to interpersonal violence by supplementing the direct injury burden of disease attributable to interpersonal violence injuries with the substantial contribution of mental health, behavioural and reproductive health consequences accruing from exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) and child sexual abuse. To revise and improve these estimates by including the additional burden from other forms of child maltreatment, community violence, sexual violence by non-partners, and bullying victimisation in SA for 2000, 2006 and 2012, and trends over time. We used comparative risk assessment methods to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) for interpersonal violence. This method requires inputs on the prevalence of exposure to the interpersonal violence risk factor subtypes, namely child maltreatment, bullying, IPV, sexual violence by non-partners and other community violence; the burden of related health outcomes (mortality and morbidity); and relative risks of health outcomes in individuals exposed to the risk factor v. those unexposed. We estimated the PAF for the combinations of all interpersonal violence subtypes together to estimate the burden attributable to interpersonal violence overall for 2000, 2006 and 2012. Between 2000 and 2012, there was a decrease in interpersonal violence age-standardised attributable death rates from 100 to 71 per 100 000. In the second South African Comparative Risk Assessment Study (SACRA2), estimates of the attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for interpersonal violence for the year 2000 were revised, from 1.7 million to 2 million DALYs, taking into account attributable mortality and disability from additional forms of violence. There was a decrease in DALYs attributable to interpersonal violence from 2 million in 2000 to 1.75 million in 2012, accounting for 8.5% of the total burden for SA, ranking second highest, after unsafe sex, among 18 risk factors evaluated in 2012. Overall, interpersonal violence-attributable DALYs decreased substantially but remain high. The reduction in age-standardised attributable death rates indicates that some policy and social intervention aspects are effective. Further strengthening of existing laws pertaining to interpersonal violence, and other prevention measures, are needed to intensify the prevention of violence, particularly gender-based violence. Additional forms of violence included in this analysis have improved our understanding of the interpersonal violence burden, but the attributable burden in males, although exceedingly high, remains an underestimate. There is a need to improve the epidemiological data on prevalence and risks for the different types of interpersonal violence, particularly for males.

The actual burden of obesity—accounting for multimorbidity

The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing worldwide, and this is forecast to continue in the coming years. One in two adults in the USA are projected to have obesity by 2030, and about one in four to have severe obesity. 1 Ward ZJ Bleich SN Cradock AL et al. Projected U.S. state-level prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity. N Engl J Med. 2019; 381: 2440-2450 Crossref PubMed Scopus (434) Google Scholar Excessive weight has been causally linked to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer, 2 Larsson SC Burgess S Causal role of high body mass index in multiple chronic diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis of Mendelian randomization studies. BMC Med. 2021; 19: 320 Crossref PubMed Scopus (5) Google Scholar and its attributable disability-adjusted life-years have been estimated to have more than doubled since 1990. 3 Dai H Alsalhe TA Chalghaf N Riccò M Bragazzi NL Wu J The global burden of disease attributable to high body mass index in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study. PLoS Med. 2020; 17e1003198 Crossref Scopus (88) Google Scholar However, the studies that established these associations often assessed a single or a few diseases rather than reflecting the actual burden of the entire clinical spectrum, when several obesity-related morbidities coexisted. Body-mass index and risk of obesity-related complex multimorbidity: an observational multicohort studyObesity is associated with diverse, increasing disease burdens, and might represent an important target for multimorbidity prevention that avoids the complexities of multitarget preventive regimens. Full-Text PDF Open Access

Local attributable burden disease to PM 2.5 ambient air pollution in Medellín, Colombia, 2010-2016.

Background: Exposure to 2.5-micron diameter air pollutants (PM 2.5) has been associated with an increased risk of illness and death worldwide; however, in Latin American health impacts assessment of this risk factor is scarce. Medellín is one of the most polluted cities in the region, with a population growth rate that is twice as high as that of other Colombian cities, which implies a growing population at risk. Methods: A descriptive study of the disease burden was carried out using the city as the unit of observation. Health events were selected based on epidemiologic evidence and the availability of the population attributable fraction associated with PM 2.5. The mortality records were taken from the module of deceased of the Single Registry of Affiliates of the Health System; the morbidity records were taken from the Individual Health Services Registries. For the estimation of the burden of disease, the current Global Burden of Disease guidelines were followed. Results: Attributable disability-adjusted life years to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 pollution (DALYs PM2.5) constituted 13.8% of total burden of the city. Males showed the greatest loss of DALYs PM2.5 due to acute events, while in women the greatest loss was due to chronic events. Ischemic heart disease, chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract, and influenza and pneumonia were the events that contributed the most to DALYs PM2.5. 71.4% of the DALYs PM2.5 corresponded to mortality, mainly in the population over 65 years of age. Regarding attributable morbidity, acute events were more prevalent in both sexes, especially due to respiratory diseases Conclusion: Premature death among the elderly population has the greatest weight on burden of disease attributable to ambient PM 2.5 pollution, mainly due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, without significant differences according to gender.

COVID-19 and prepandemic all-cause inequalities in disability-adjusted life-years due to multiple deprivation: a Scottish Burden of Disease study

BackgroundCOVID-19 has caused major social, environmental, and economic changes. The mechanisms that shape health inequalities have resulted in COVID-19 outcomes following the same pattern. We aimed to estimate overall, and inequalities in, COVID-19 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Scotland during 2020. These were scaled against prepandemic DALYs due to inequalities in multiple deprivation combined across all causes. MethodsDALYs were estimated with an international consensus model with Scottish national deaths and daily cases as data inputs. Health loss valuation was defined with the aspirational reference life table and disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Years of life lost were estimated for each area-based deprivation quintile of the Scottish population. Years lived with disability were distributed to deprivation quintiles, based on the distribution of estimates of years of life lost. Inequalities in rates were measured by the relative index of inequality (RII); slope index of inequality (SII); and attributable DALYs, with the least deprived quintile as a reference category. Prepandemic estimates were for 2018, derived from the Scottish Burden of Disease study. Permissions were granted by the Privacy Advisory Committee, National Health Service, National Services Scotland. FindingsMarked inequalities were observed across several measures in 2020 (Jan 1 to Dec 31). The SII was 2048–2289 COVID-19 DALYs per 100 000 people. The COVID-19 DALYs rate in the most deprived areas (2748–3067 per 100 000 people) was around 58% higher than the mean population rate (RII=1·16), with 40% (n=38 925–43 284) of COVID-19 DALYs attributed to inequalities in multiple deprivation. In the wider context, overall COVID-19 DALYs (n=96 519–108 243) were approximately a fifth of the annual prepandemic DALYs (n=535 298) attributable to inequalities in multiple deprivation. InterpretationThe impact of COVID-19 in Scotland was not shared equally across areas experiencing different levels of deprivation. The extent of COVID-19 inequality was similar to annual DALYs due to diabetes. Implementing effective policy interventions to reduce health inequalities must be at the forefront of plans to recover and improve population health. Communicating the effect of pre-existing inequalities by scaling against COVID-19 could be a useful means to retaining, and increasing, both policy and public engagement and response over tackling inequality. FundingNone.

Burden of disease induced by public overexposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (SUVR) at the national and subnational levels in Iran, 2005–2019

Estimating the burden of diseases induced by overexposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (SUVR) can help to prioritize environmental health interventions. The age-sex specific and cause-specific mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to overexposure to SUVR at the national and subnational levels in Iran, 2005–2019 were estimated. The burden of disease induced by overexposure to SUVR was quantified in four steps as follows: (1) estimating exposure to SUVR, (2) estimating total incidences and deaths of target causes, (3) assessing population attributable fractions of the target causes for the SUVR, and (4) calculating the attributable burden of disease. The attributable DALYs, deaths, age-standardized DALY rate, and age-standardized death rate at the national level were determined to be respectively 21896, 252, 42.59, and 0.56 in 2005 and were respectively changed to 28665, 377, 38.76, and 0.53 in 2019. The contributions of causes in the attributable DALYs at the national level were different by year and sex and for both sexes in 2019 were as follows: 46.15% for cataract, 20.36% for malignant skin melanoma, 16.07% for sunburn, 12.41% for squamous-cell carcinoma, and 5.01% for the other five causes. The contributions of population growth, population ageing, risk exposure, and risk-deleted DALY rate in the temporal variations of the attributable burden of disease in the country were +20.73%, +20.68%, +2.01%, and −12.51%. The highest and lowest provincial attributable age-standardized DALY rates in 2019 were observed in Fars (46.8) and Ardebil (32.7), respectively. The burden of disease induced by exposure to SUVR caused relatively low geographical inequality in health status in Iran. Due to increasing trends of the SUVR as well as the attributable burden of disease, the preventive interventions against the SUVR overexposure should be considered in the public health action plan all across the country.

Socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 DALYs in Scotland, 2020

AimOur aim was to estimate the overall, and inequalities in the, population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland, measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2020.MethodsNational deaths and daily case data were input into the consensus model outlined by the European Burden of Disease Network, to estimate DALYs. Total Years of Life Lost (YLL) were estimated, and for each deprivation quintile of the Scottish population. Years Lived with Disability (2% of all DALYs) were proportionately distributed to deprivation quintiles, based on YLL estimates. Socioeconomic inequalities were measured by the Relative Index of Inequality (RII), Slope Index of Inequality (SII), and attributable DALYs were estimated by using the least deprived quintile as a reference. Results were presented as a range, using a sensitivity based on YLL estimates using: cause-specific; and COVID-19 related deaths.ResultsCOVID-19 DALYs ranged from 96,500 to 108,200 in 2020, representing the second leading cause of disease/injury in Scotland, in 2020. Marked socioeconomic inequalities were observed across several measures. The difference between the most and least deprived areas, measured by SII, was 2,048 to 2,289 DALYs per 100,000. The RII was 1.16, meaning that the rate in the most deprived areas was around 58% higher than the mean rate of the population. DALYs attributable to differences in socioeconomic status accounted for 40% of total COVID-19 DALYs.ConclusionsThe direct population health impact of COVID-19 in 2020 was substantial. Despite unprecedented mitigation efforts, in Scotland, a single case in early 2020 developed to having an impact second only to ischaemic heart disease. This impact was not shared equally, and socioeconomically deprived areas were hit hardest, a result confirmed across all measures of inequality. DALY estimation on both the ongoing direct, and indirect, pandemic harms will evidence the extent of impact on overall, and inequalities in, population health.Key messages The population impact of COVID-19 has been highly damaging. When measured by DALYs, the population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland, during 2020, was second only to ischaemic heart disease.The population health impact of COVID-19 has not been shared equally, a result confirmed across all measures of socioeconomic inequality.

Inequalities in population health loss by multiple deprivation: COVID-19 and pre-pandemic all-cause disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Scotland

BackgroundCOVID-19 has caused almost unprecedented change across health, education, the economy and social interaction. It is widely understood that the existing mechanisms which shape health inequalities have resulted in COVID-19 outcomes following this same, familiar, pattern. Our aim was to estimate inequalities in the population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland, measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2020. Our secondary aim was to scale overall, and inequalities in, COVID-19 DALYs against the level of pre-pandemic inequalities in all-cause DALYs, derived from the Scottish Burden of Disease (SBoD) study.MethodsNational deaths and daily case data were input into the European Burden of Disease Network consensus model to estimate DALYs. Total Years of Life Lost (YLL) were estimated for each area-based deprivation quintile of the Scottish population. Years Lived with Disability were proportionately distributed to deprivation quintiles, based on YLL estimates. Inequalities were measured by: the range, Relative Index of Inequality (RII), Slope Index of Inequality (SII), and attributable DALYs were estimated by using the least deprived quintile as a reference.ResultsMarked inequalities were observed across several measures. The SII range was 2048 to 2289 COVID-19 DALYs per 100,000 population. The rate in the most deprived areas was around 58% higher than the mean population rate (RII = 1.16), with 40% of COVID-19 DALYs attributed to differences in area-based deprivation. Overall DALYs due to COVID-19 ranged from 7 to 20% of the annual pre-pandemic impact of inequalities in health loss combined across all causes.ConclusionThe substantial population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland was not shared equally across areas experiencing different levels of deprivation. The extent of inequality due to COVID-19 was similar to averting all annual DALYs due to diabetes. In the wider context of population health loss, overall ill-health and mortality due to COVID-19 was, at most, a fifth of the annual population health loss due to inequalities in multiple deprivation. Implementing effective policy interventions to reduce health inequalities must be at the forefront of plans to recover and improve population health.

Local attributable burden disease to PM 2.5 ambient air pollution in Medellín, Colombia, 2010–2016

Background: Exposure to 2.5-micron diameter air pollutants (PM 2.5) has been associated with an increased risk of illness and death worldwide; however, in Latin American health impacts assessment of this risk factor is scarce. Medellín is one of the most polluted cities in the region, with a population growth rate that is twice as high as that of other Colombian cities, which implies a growing population at risk. Methods: A descriptive study of the disease burden was carried out using the city as the unit of observation. Health events were selected based on epidemiologic evidence and the availability of the population attributable fraction associated with PM 2.5. The mortality records were taken from the module of deceased of the Single Registry of Affiliates of the Health System; the morbidity records were taken from the Individual Health Services Registries. For the estimation of the burden of disease, the current Global Burden of Disease guidelines were followed. Results: Attributable disability-adjusted life years to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 pollution (DALYs PM2.5) constituted 13.8% of total burden of the city. Males showed the greatest loss of DALYs PM2.5 due to acute events, while in women the greatest loss was due to chronic events. Ischemic heart disease, chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract, and influenza and pneumonia were the events that contributed the most to DALYs PM2.5. 71.4% of the DALYs PM2.5 corresponded to mortality, mainly in the population over 65 years of age. Regarding attributable morbidity, acute events were more prevalent in both sexes, especially due to respiratory diseases Conclusion: Premature death among the elderly population has the greatest weight on burden of disease attributable to ambient PM 2.5 pollution, mainly due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, without significant differences according to gender.

Local attributable burden disease to PM 2.5 ambient air pollution in Medellín, Colombia, 2010-2016.

Background: Exposure to 2.5-micron diameter air pollutants (PM 2.5) has been associated with an increased risk of illness and death worldwide; however, in Latin American health impacts assessment of this risk factor is scarce. Medellín is one of the most polluted cities in the region, with a population growth rate that is twice as high as that of other Colombian cities, which implies a growing population at risk. Methods: A descriptive study of the disease burden was carried out using the city as the unit of observation. Health events were selected based on epidemiologic evidence and the availability of the population attributable fraction associated with PM 2.5. The mortality records were taken from the module of deceased of the Single Registry of Affiliates of the Health System; the morbidity records were taken from the Individual Health Services Registries. For the estimation of the burden of disease, the current Global Burden of Disease guidelines were followed. Results: Attributable disability-adjusted life years to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 pollution (DALYs PM2.5) constituted 13.8% of total burden of the city. Males showed the greatest loss of DALYs PM2.5 due to acute events, while in women the greatest loss was due to chronic events. Ischemic heart disease, chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract, and influenza and pneumonia were the events that contributed the most to DALYs PM2.5. 71.4% of the DALYs PM2.5 corresponded to mortality, mainly in the population over 65 years of age. Regarding attributable morbidity, acute events were more prevalent in both sexes, especially due to respiratory diseases Conclusion: Premature death among the elderly population has the greatest weight on burden of disease attributable to ambient PM 2.5 pollution, mainly due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, without significant differences according to gender.

Ambient particulate matter burden of disease in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

BackgroundAir pollution is one of the top 10 global health risk factors and has been associated with premature mortality, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, respiratory, and metabolic disease. Currently, there is a lack of health assessments on the public health impacts of air pollution in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. AimThis study aims to assess the ambient particulate matter burden of disease in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. MethodsA comparative risk assessment (CRA) using the 2017 Global Burden of Disease was performed to estimate ambient particulate matter exposure, mortality, and lost years of a healthy life. Saudi Arabia population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2.5), at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution was estimated using satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. The CRA for PM2.5 was based on relative risks originated from epidemiological studies using integrated exposure-response functions for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, lower respiratory infections, and type 2 diabetes. Mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to PM2.5 were estimated at the national level for all ages and both sexes from 1990 to 2017. ResultsIn 2017, the annual exposure to ambient particulate matter in the population-weighted mean PM2.5 in Saudi Arabia was 87.9 μg/m3 (95% UI 29.6–197.9). The PM2.5 population-weighted mean has increased by 24% since 1990. Annual deaths attributable to PM2.5 were estimated at 8536 (95% UI 6046–11,080), representing 9% of the total annual deaths in Saudi Arabia. In 2017, 315,200 (95% UI 231,608–401,926) DALYs were attributable to PM2.5. Males contributed to 67% (209,822 (95% UI 151,322–277,503)) of DALYs, and females contributed to 33% (105,378 (95% UI 76,014–135,269) of DALYs. Ischemic heart disease represented 44% of the PM2.5 attributable DALYs, followed by type 2 diabetes (20%), lower respiratory infections (13%), stroke (11%), COPD (10%), and tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (3%). In 2017, 240,966 (95% UI 168,833–319,178) years of life lost (YLL) and 74,234 (95% UI 50,229–100,410) years lived with disability (YLD) were attributed to PM2.5. ConclusionAmbient particulate matter is the fifth health risk factor in Saudi Arabia, contributing 9% of total mortality. Over the past 27 years, estimated exposure levels of PM2.5 in Saudi Arabia have been above WHO's air quality guidelines. Although since 2011 mortality and DALY rates attributable to PM2.5 have decreased, air pollution concentrations continue to increase. National and local authorities in Saudi Arabia should consider policies to reduce industrial and traffic-related air pollution in combination with the strengthening of current investments and improvements in health care and prevention services.

Burden of high sodium diet in Brazilian population: Global Burden of Disease 2017 estimates

Abstract High-sodium diet leads to significant health problems such as high blood pressure, chronic kidney disease, ventricular hypertrophy and stroke. In Brazil, 2008 survey data have shown an average intake of 4.7 g/day of sodium, equivalent to 12 g/day of salt. In 2014, the average ofsalt intake estimated was 9.3 g/day. In both surveys, the numbers are higher than the international recommendation of 5g/day of salt. Considering this excessive consumption and the invisibility of the major consequences of such lifestyle, the aim of this study was to estimate the burden of diseases due to a high-sodium diet in Brazil. We used the high-sodium diet attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and deaths estimates of the Global Burden of Disease study in 2017 among Brazilian. The burden of high-sodium diet was assessed using a comparative risk assessment approach, which allows the calculation of the population attributable fraction of each disease that has an established relation with this behavior. Input data from Brazil to reach such estimates have included surveys that report the dietary sodium. Data on disease occurrence and mortality were obtained from health information systems and health surveys. In 2017, high-sodium diet contributed with a significant number of deaths (51,434, 95% U.I.: 9,266-105,118) and DALYs (988,258, 95% U.I.: 139,943-2,149,179) in Brazil. The states of Northern Region presented lower mortality rates (Roraima: 11.1/100,000; 95% U.I.: 1.5-24.0 and Amapa: 10.6/100,000; 1.5-23.5), while those in the Southeast have higher mortality rates (Rio de Janeiro: 33.2/100,000; 95% U.I.: 5.4-68.1 and São Paulo: 32.0/100,000; 95% U.I.: 3.5-49.6). The same pattern by states was observed for DALYs. These findings are significant and support the urgent necessity of strategies to reinforce the promotion of a healthy diet, restricted in ultra-processed foods high in sodium, among the Brazilian population in order to prevent early morbidity and mortality. Key messages Salt consumption in Brazil is high and contributes to a significant number of deaths and DALYs. It is necessary to increase and reinforce actions that promote the Brazilian traditional food, such as the Brazilian Food Guide, and also the sodium reduction agreements with industries.

P1947Trends in prevalence, mortality and morbidity associated with high systolic blood pressure in Brazil from 1990 to 2017: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Abstract Background Hypertension remains the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease worldwide. In Brazil, a third of adults have hypertension. The prevalence and impact of this risk factor on disease burden in Brazil and its federal units should be assessed in order to better address the issue. Objective To describe trends in prevalence and burden of diseases attributable to high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) among Brazilians ≥25 years old according to sex and federal units using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment developed for the GBD study to estimate trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), by sex, and federal units for HSBP from 1990 to 2017. This study included 14 HSBP-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for evidence of causation. HSBP was defined as ≥140mmHg for prevalence estimates and, to evaluate the burden of HSBP, a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) of 110–115 mmHg was considered. We estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to HSBP. We also explored the drivers of trends in attributable burden of HSBP, as well as the relation of HSBP burden and sociodemographic development. Results In Brazil, the prevalence of HSBP is 18.9 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI] 18.5 to 19.3%) and the age-standardized death rate attributable to HSBP decreased from 189.2 (95%UI 168.5 to 209.2) deaths to 104.8 (95%UI 94.9 to 114.4) deaths per 100,000 from 1990 to 2017. In spite of that, the total number of deaths attributable to HSBP increased 53.4% and HSBP raised from 3rd to 1st position, as the leading risk factor for deaths during the period. Regarding total DALYs, HSBP raised from 4th in 1990 to 2nd cause in 2017 - in the last, only behind smoking. The main driver in the change of HSBP burden in Brazil is population aging. Across federal units, the reduction in the age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP are heterogeneous and the greater reduction correlated to higher sociodemographic development. Conclusions The age-standardized death and DALY rates attributable to HSBP are decreasing in Brazil, probably as results of successful public health policies for primary prevention and control of HSBP. However, the reduction was more significant in federal units with higher sociodemographic development, suggesting that the effect of health policies was heterogeneous. Moreover, HSBP has become the main risk factor for death in the country, mainly due to population aging. As such, the Brazilian health system should increase investments in policies to address the situation and prepare itself to cope with higher burden of HSBP in the near future. Acknowledgement/Funding The GBD 2017 Brazil study is primarily funded by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Physical activity profile of the Iranian population: STEPS survey, 2016

BackgroundInsufficient physical activity (IPA) is one of the leading causes of premature mortality through the increased burden of non-communicable diseases. From 1990 to 2017, the percentage of low physical activity attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALY) increased globally by 1.5 times and 2-fold in Iran, causing more than 1.2 million deaths worldwide and 18,000 deaths in Iran in 2017. Reports suggest that Iran, a developing middle-income country, suffers from a high level of IPA. Socioeconomic and cultural alterations along with the country’s developments expose the population to IPA risk. We aimed to describe IPA prevalence in Iran’s adult population, categorized by demographics, geographical region, and activity domains to assess the present pattern of physical inactivity and its domains in the country.MethodsIn 2016, in order to represent Iran’s adult population, adult participants (n: 30541) from 30 provinces were selected using systematic proportional to size cluster sampling. Physical activity (PA) was assessed via the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire, calculating the Metabolic Equivalent of Task (MET) value in minutes per week for work, recreation, and transport domains. Insufficient physical activity (IPA) was defined according to WHO’s recommendation (less than 600 METs per week). Adjusted odds ratios of IPA associates for sociodemographic, lifestyle related variables, and metabolic risk factors were reported.ResultsA high prevalence of IPA was seen in the total population (54.7%, 95%CI: 54.0–55.3) with a considerable difference between the two genders (males: 45.3% (95%CI: 44.3–46.3); females: 61.9% (95%CI: 61.0–62.7)). Work-related activity was the domain with the greatest percentage of total PA, whereas, both genders lacked recreational activities. In our findings, being female, a housekeeper, younger and living in urban areas were significantly associated with higher levels of IPA. Moreover, insufficient fruit and vegetable consumption, lack of alcohol consumption, having a personal vehicle, and finally, having a medical history of diabetes were significantly associated with the presence of IPA in our population. Among the study population, 33.6% (95%CI: 33.0–34.2) had at least 4 h of sedentary behavior in a typical day.ConclusionsWidespread IPA among the Iranian adult population is of major concern. In our findings, we observed a considerable gap in the prevalence and pattern of IPA between the two genders. Additionally, IPA was associated with living in urban areas, unhealthy lifestyle habits and a history of other metabolic risk factors. Thus, a prompt initiative for population-specific actions should be taken.

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Global statistics on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use: 2017 status report.

This review provides an up-to-date curated source of information on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use and their associated mortality and burden of disease. Limitations in the data are also discussed, including how these can be addressed in the future. Online data sources were identified through expert review. Data were obtained mainly from the World Health Organization, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. In 2015, the estimated prevalence among the adult population was 18.4% for heavy episodic alcohol use (in the past 30days); 15.2% for daily tobacco smoking; and 3.8, 0.77, 0.37 and 0.35% for past-year cannabis, amphetamine, opioid and cocaine use, respectively. European regions had the highest prevalence of heavy episodic alcohol use and daily tobacco use. The age-standardized prevalence of alcohol dependence was 843.2 per 100 000 people; for cannabis, opioids, amphetamines and cocaine dependence it was 259.3, 220.4, 86.0 and 52.5 per 100 000 people, respectively. High-income North America region had among the highest rates of cannabis, opioid and cocaine dependence. Attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were highest for tobacco smoking (170.9 million DALYs), followed by alcohol (85.0 million) and illicit drugs (27.8 million). Substance-attributable mortality rates were highest for tobacco smoking (110.7 deaths per 100 000 people), followed by alcohol and illicit drugs (33.0 and 6.9 deaths per 100 000 people, respectively). Attributable age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs for alcohol and illicit drugs were highest in eastern Europe; attributable age-standardized tobacco mortality rates and DALYs were highest in Oceania. In 2015 alcohol use and tobacco smoking use between them cost the human population more than a quarter of a billion disability-adjusted life years, with illicit drugs costing further tens of millions. Europeans suffered proportionately more, but in absolute terms the mortality rate was greatest in low- and middle-income countries with large populations and where the quality of data was more limited. Better standardized and rigorous methods for data collection, collation and reporting are needed to assess more accurately the geographical and temporal trends in substance use and its disease burden.

Abstract P062: The Impact of High Fasting Plasma Glucose on Cardiovascular Health at the State-level in the United States

Introduction: High fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the impact of FPG on CVD mortality and morbidity at the state-level in the US has not been systematically evaluated. Objective: To quantify the number of CVD deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high FPG by age, sex, year and state among US adults from 1990 to 2016. Methods: We used a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) to estimate the mean FPG level by age, sex, year and state. The inputs to the ST-GPR model included data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, state-specific prevalence of obesity, and per-capita lag-distributed income in each state. Using the mean FPG and prevalence of diabetes in each state, we characterized the distribution of the FPG at the state-level. Then, we used the Global Burden of Disease study comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the CVD deaths and DALYs attributable to high FPG. Results: In 2016, there were 180,440 CVD deaths attributable to high FPG in the United States: 77% due to ischemic stroke, 21% due to cerebrovascular disease, and &lt;1% due to peripheral artery disease. Alaska had the lowest attributable death rate for both males and females (66.9 per 100,000 and 55.4 per 100,000, respectively) and West Virginia had the highest attributable death rate for both males and females (227.3 per 100,000 and 186.4 per 100,000, respectively). This is contrasted to DALYS, where Colorado had the lowest attributable DALYS rate for both males and females (1,732 DALYS per 100,000 1,379 DALYS per 100,000, respectively) and West Virginia had the highest attributable DALY rate for both males and females (5,219 DALYS per 100,000 and 3,965 DALYS per 100,000, respectively). (Figure) Conclusions: Our results highlight the need for evidence-based intervention to control FPG to effectively prevent CVD.