Atmospheric Research Community Research Articles

How open data and interdisciplinary collaboration improve our understanding of space weather: A risk and resiliency perspective

Space weather refers to conditions around a star, like our Sun, and its interplanetary space that may affect space- and ground-based assets as well as human life. Space weather can manifest as many different phenomena, often simultaneously, and can create complex and sometimes dangerous conditions. The study of space weather is inherently trans-disciplinary, including subfields of solar, magnetospheric, ionospheric, and atmospheric research communities, but benefiting from collaborations with policymakers, industry, astrophysics, software engineering, and many more. Effective communication is required between scientists, the end-user community, and government organizations to ensure that we are prepared for any adverse space weather effects. With the rapid growth of the field in recent years, the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 maximum, and the evolution of research-ready technologies, we believe that space weather deserves a reexamination in terms of a “risk and resiliency” framework. By utilizing open data science, cross-disciplinary collaborations, information systems, and citizen science, we can forge stronger partnerships between science and industry and improve our readiness as a society to mitigate space weather impacts. The objective of this manuscript is to raise awareness of these concepts as we approach a solar maximum that coincides with an increasingly technology-dependent society, and introduce a unique way of approaching space weather through the lens of a risk and resiliency framework that can be used to further assess areas of improvement in the field.

Eastward‐Propagating Planetary Waves Prior to the January 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

AbstractEastward‐propagating planetary waves (EPWs) were investigated prior to the boreal January 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics. About 22 days before SSW onset, a background flow with jet maxima around the upper polar stratosphere and subtropical mesosphere developed due to the net forcing by gravity and planetary waves. The mesospheric wind structure was largely unstable and supported a wave geometry conducive to overreflection. With a zonal phase speed of ∼10 m s−1, EPWs appeared near their turning and critical layers as wavenumber‐2 perturbations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Accompanied by upward EPW activity from the lower stratosphere, EPW growth exhibited characteristics of wave instability and overreflection.

Background conditions for an urban greenhouse gas network in the Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan region.

As city governments take steps towards establishing emissions reduction targets, the atmospheric research community is increasingly able to assist in tracking emissions reductions. Researchers have established systems for observing atmospheric greenhouse gases in urban areas with the aim of attributing greenhouse gas concentration enhancements (and thus, emissions) to the region in question. However, to attribute enhancements to a particular region, one must isolate the component of the observed concentration attributable to fluxes inside the region by removing the background, which is the component due to fluxes outside. In this study, we demonstrate methods to construct several versions of a background for our carbon dioxide and methane observing network in the Washington, DC and Baltimore, MD metropolitan region. Some of these versions rely on transport and flux models, while others are based on observations upwind of the domain. First, we evaluate the backgrounds in a synthetic data framework, then we evaluate against real observations from our urban network. We find that backgrounds based on upwind observations capture the variability better than model-based backgrounds, although care must be taken to avoid bias from biospheric carbon dioxide fluxes near background stations in summer. Model-based backgrounds also perform well when upwind fluxes can be modeled accurately. Our study evaluates different background methods and provides guidance determining background methodology that can impact the design of urban monitoring networks.

A statistical approach to fast nowcasting of lightning potential fields

Abstract. Thunderstorms and associated hazards like lightning can pose a serious threat to people outside and infrastructure. Thus, very short-term prediction capabilities (called nowcasting) have been developed to capture this threat and aid in decision-making on when to bring people inside for safety reasons. The atmospheric research and operational communities have been developing and using nowcasting methods for decades, but most methods do not rely on formal statistical approaches. A novel and fast statistical approach to nowcasting of lightning threats is presented here that builds upon an integro-difference modeling framework. Inspiration from the heat equation is used to define a redistribution kernel, and a simple linear advection scheme is shown to work well for the lightning prediction example. The model takes only seconds to estimate and nowcast and is competitive with a more complex image deformation approach that is computationally infeasible for very short-term nowcasts.

A Total Energy Error Analysis of Dynamical Cores and Physics‐Dynamics Coupling in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)

AbstractA closed total energy (TE) budget is of utmost importance in coupled climate system modeling; in particular, the dynamical core or physics‐dynamics coupling should ideally not lead to spurious TE sources/sinks. To assess this in a global climate model, a detailed analysis of the spurious sources/sinks of TE in National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is given. This includes spurious sources/sinks associated with the parameterization suite, the dynamical core, TE definition discrepancies, and physics‐dynamics coupling. The latter leads to a detailed discussion of the pros and cons of various physics‐dynamics coupling methods commonly used in climate/weather modeling.

On the representation of aerosol activation and its influence on model-derived estimates of the aerosol indirect effect

Abstract. Interactions between aerosol particles and clouds contribute a great deal of uncertainty to the scientific community's understanding of anthropogenic climate forcing. Aerosol particles serve as the nucleation sites for cloud droplets, establishing a direct linkage between anthropogenic particulate emissions and clouds in the climate system. To resolve this linkage, the community has developed parameterizations of aerosol activation which can be used in global climate models to interactively predict cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs). However, different activation schemes can exhibit different sensitivities to aerosol perturbations in different meteorological or pollution regimes. To assess the impact these different sensitivities have on climate forcing, we have coupled three different core activation schemes and variants with the CESM-MARC (two-Moment, Multi-Modal, Mixing-state-resolving Aerosol model for Research of Climate (MARC) coupled with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 1.2)). Although the model produces a reasonable present-day CDNC climatology when compared with observations regardless of the scheme used, ΔCDNCs between the present and preindustrial era regionally increase by over 100 % in zonal mean when using the most sensitive parameterization. These differences in activation sensitivity may lead to a different evolution of the model meteorology, and ultimately to a spread of over 0.8 W m−2 in global average shortwave indirect effect (AIE) diagnosed from the model, a range which is as large as the inter-model spread from the AeroCom intercomparison. Model-derived AIE strongly scales with the simulated preindustrial CDNC burden, and those models with the greatest preindustrial CDNC tend to have the smallest AIE, regardless of their ΔCDNC. This suggests that present-day evaluations of aerosol-climate models may not provide useful constraints on the magnitude of the AIE, which will arise from differences in model estimates of the preindustrial aerosol and cloud climatology.

Real-time Environmental Applications and Display sYstem: READY

Air quality forecasters, emergency responders, aviation interests, government agencies, and the atmospheric research community are among those who require access to tools to analyze and predict the transport and dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere. Because of this need, the unique web-based Real-time Environmental Applications and Display sYstem (READY) has been under continuous development since 1997 to provide access to a suite of tools for producing air parcel trajectory and dispersion model results and displaying meteorological data.READY provides a “quasi-operational” portal to run the HYSPLIT atmospheric transport and dispersion model and interpret its results. Typical user applications include modeling the release of hazardous pollutants and volcanic ash, forest fire and prescribed burn smoke forecasting, poor air quality events, and various climatological studies. In addition, READY provides the user with quick access to meteorological data interpolated to the location of interest, helping in the interpretation of the HYSPLIT model results.

Estimating the Continental Response to Global Warming Using Pattern-Scaled Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Ice

Abstract Better constraining the continental climate response to anthropogenic forcing is essential to improve climate projections. In this study, pattern scaling is used to extract, from observations, the patterned response of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SICE) to anthropogenically dominated long-term global warming. The SST response pattern includes a warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, the high northern latitudes, and the western boundary currents. The SICE pattern shows seasonal variations of the main locations of sea ice loss. These SST–SICE response patterns are used to drive an ensemble of an atmospheric general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), over the period 1980–2010 along with a standard AMIP ensemble using observed SST—SICE. The simulations enable attribution of a variety of observed trends of continental climate to global warming. On the one hand, the warming trends observed in all seasons across the entire Northern Hemisphere extratropics result from global warming, as does the snow loss observed over the northern midlatitudes and northwestern Eurasia. On the other hand, 1980–2010 precipitation trends observed in winter over North America and in summer over Africa result from the recent decreasing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the recent increasing phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, respectively, which are not part of the global warming signal. The method holds promise for near-term decadal climate prediction but as currently framed cannot distinguish regional signals associated with oceanic internal variability from aerosol forcing and other sources of short-term forcing.

Poleward transport variability in the Northern Hemisphere during final stratospheric warmings simulated by CESM(WACCM)

AbstractObservational studies of Arctic stratospheric final warmings have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses can be advected to high latitudes and remain confined within a long‐lived “frozen‐in” anticyclone (FrIAC) for several months. It was suggested that the frequency of FrIACs may have increased since 2000 and that their interannual variability may be modulated by (i) the occurrence of major stratospheric warmings (mSSWs) in the preceding winter and (ii) the phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). In this study, we tested these observational‐based hypotheses for the first time using a chemistry climate model. Three 145 year sensitivity experiments were performed with the National Center of Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM): one control experiment including only natural variability, one with an extreme greenhouse gas emission scenario, and one without the QBO in the tropical stratosphere. In comparison with reanalysis, the model simulates a realistic frequency and characteristics of FrIACs, which occur under an abrupt and early winter‐to‐summer stratospheric circulation transition, driven by enhanced planetary wave activity. Furthermore, the model results support the suggestion that the development of FrIACs is favored by an easterly QBO in the middle stratosphere and by the absence of mSSWs during the preceding winter. The lower stratospheric persistence of background dynamical state anomalies induced by deep mSSWs leads to less favorable conditions for planetary waves to enter the high‐latitude stratosphere in April, which in turn decreases the probability of FrIAC development. Our model results do not suggest that climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) influence FrIAC occurrences.

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities.

Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061-2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario- going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.

A moist aquaplanet variant of the Held–Suarez test for atmospheric model dynamical cores

Abstract. A moist idealized test case (MITC) for atmospheric model dynamical cores is presented. The MITC is based on the Held–Suarez (HS) test that was developed for dry simulations on “a flat Earth” and replaces the full physical parameterization package with a Newtonian temperature relaxation and Rayleigh damping of the low-level winds. This new variant of the HS test includes moisture and thereby sheds light on the nonlinear dynamics–physics moisture feedbacks without the complexity of full-physics parameterization packages. In particular, it adds simplified moist processes to the HS forcing to model large-scale condensation, boundary-layer mixing, and the exchange of latent and sensible heat between the atmospheric surface and an ocean-covered planet. Using a variety of dynamical cores of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), this paper demonstrates that the inclusion of the moist idealized physics package leads to climatic states that closely resemble aquaplanet simulations with complex physical parameterizations. This establishes that the MITC approach generates reasonable atmospheric circulations and can be used for a broad range of scientific investigations. This paper provides examples of two application areas. First, the test case reveals the characteristics of the physics–dynamics coupling technique and reproduces coupling issues seen in full-physics simulations. In particular, it is shown that sudden adjustments of the prognostic fields due to moist physics tendencies can trigger undesirable large-scale gravity waves, which can be remedied by a more gradual application of the physical forcing. Second, the moist idealized test case can be used to intercompare dynamical cores. These examples demonstrate the versatility of the MITC approach and suggestions are made for further application areas. The new moist variant of the HS test can be considered a test case of intermediate complexity.

The response of ENSO flavors to mid‐Holocene climate: Implications for proxy interpretation

AbstractThe response of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to mid‐Holocene boundary conditions remains an open question: paleoclimate proxies and climate model simulations do not agree in the magnitude of the reduction of ENSO variability, while recent proxy evidence from fossil corals from the central Pacific show that the reduction in mid‐Holocene ENSO variability compared to the end of the twentieth century is not different from the reduction during other Holocene time intervals. This is inconsistent with the interpretation of lake and ocean sediment records from the eastern Pacific, which show a significant reduction compared to all other Holocene periods. In order to reconcile the seemingly conflicting proxy evidence from the eastern and central Pacific, we hypothesize that ENSO remained active during the mid‐Holocene; however, there was a change in the spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies, also known as ENSO flavors. Using National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model version 4 forced with mid‐Holocene orbital conditions, we find that the frequency of occurrence of the strongest eastern Pacific (EP) events decreases in the mid‐Holocene and their variance is reduced by ∼30%, while the frequency of central Pacific (CP) events slightly increases and their variance does not change. We also find a shift in the seasonality of EP events, but not in that of CP events. Lastly, mid‐Holocene EP events develop more slowly and decay faster. The differential response of ENSO flavors to mid‐Holocene forcing is remotely forced by the West Pacific, where a weakening of the trade winds in early boreal spring in the mid‐Holocene initiates an anomalous downwelling annual Kelvin wave, which reaches the eastern Pacific during the ENSO development season, weakens the upper ocean stratification, and results in reduced ENSO upwelling feedback. The simulated reduction in the EP flavor versus the CP flavor in the mid‐Holocene is consistent with proxy evidence: The teleconnection patterns of the two flavors with temperature, precipitation, and salinity are distinct, and proxies from different regions of the Pacific might be recording variability associated with only one of the flavors, or some combination of their relative effects.

Andean elevation control on tropical Pacific climate and ENSO

Late Cenozoic marine proxy data record a long-term transition in the tropical Pacific from El Nino-like conditions with reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, deepened thermocline, and reduced upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) to conditions similar to modern. This transition coincides with kilometer-scale uplift of the central Andes. To understand whether the rise of the Andes contributed to tropical Pacific climate evolution, we performed experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model version 4 to quantify changes in tropical Pacific climate and El Nino–Southern Oscillation as a function of Andean elevations. Our results demonstrate that uplift increases the equatorial east-west SST gradient and Walker circulation. The rise of the Andes from 1 to 3 km increases the SST gradient by 0.8°C and Walker circulation by 60% due to strengthened radiative cooling by enhanced low-cloud formation in the EEP. This cooling effect is largest in the southeastern tropical Pacific and accounts for about one half of the reconstructed SST cooling along the Peru coast. The uplift also strengthens upwelling north of the EEP, consistent with documented increases in biological productivity in this region, and decreases the frequency of El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the number of strong El Nino events. Simulated responses to Andean uplift are generally consistent with the late Cenozoic proxy records, but too small in magnitude. Taken together, our results indicate that Andean uplift was likely one of the multiple factors that contributed to the long-term evolution of both the mean climate state and the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific.

The influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on major stratospheric sudden warmings

Major stratospheric sudden warmings are prominent disturbances of the Northern Hemisphere polar winter stratosphere. Understanding the factors controlling major warmings is required, since the associated circulation changes can propagate down into the troposphere and affect the surface climate, suggesting enhanced prediction skill when these processes are accurately represented in models. In this study we investigate how different natural and anthropogenic factors, namely, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), sea surface temperatures (SSTs), anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances, influence the frequency, variability, and life cycle of major warmings. This is done using sensitivity experiments performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is able to simulate the life cycle of major warmings realistically. The QBO strengthens the climatological stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) and significantly reduces the frequency of major warmings through reduction of planetary wave propagation into the PNJ region. Variability in SSTs weakens the PNJ and significantly increases the major warming frequency due to enhanced wave forcing. Even extreme climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) do not influence the total frequency but determine the prewarming phase of major warmings. The amplitude and duration of major warmings seem to be mainly determined by internal stratospheric variability. We also suggest that SST variability, two-way ocean/atmosphere coupling, and hence the memory of the ocean are needed to reproduce the observed tropospheric negative Northern Annular Mode pattern after major warmings.

Investigating impacts of forest fires in Alaska and western Canada on regional weather over the northeastern United States using CAM5 global simulations to constrain transport to a WRF-Chem regional domain

An aerosol-enabled globally driven regional modeling system has been developed by coupling the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem). In this modeling system, aerosol-enabled CAM5, a state-of-the-art global climate model is downscaled to provide coherent meteorological and chemical boundary conditions for regional WRF-Chem simulations. Aerosol particle emissions originating outside the WRF-Chem domain can be a potentially important nonlocal aerosol source. As a test case, the potential impacts of nonlocal forest fire aerosols on regional precipitation and radiation were investigated over the northeastern United States during the summer of 2004. During this period, forest fires in Alaska and western Canada lofted aerosol particles into the midtroposphere, which were advected across the United States. WRF-Chem simulations that included nonlocal biomass burning aerosols had domain-mean aerosol optical depths that were nearly three times higher than those without, which reduced peak downwelling domain-mean shortwave radiation at the surface by ~25 W m-2. In this classic twin experiment design, adding nonlocal fire plume led to near-surface cooling and changes in cloud vertical distribution, while variations in domain-mean cloud liquid water path were negligible. The higher aerosol concentrations in the simulation with the fire plume resulted in a ~10% reduction in domain-mean precipitation coincident with an ~8% decrease in domain-mean CAPE. A suite of simulations was also conducted to explore sensitivities of meteorological feedbacks to the ratio of black carbon to total plume aerosols, as well as to overall plume concentrations. Results from this ensemble revealed that plume-induced near-surface cooling and CAPE reduction occur in a wide range of conditions. The response of moist convection was very complex because of strong thermodynamic internal variability. Key Points Nonlocal fire emissions resulted in ~10% precipitation reduction Nonlocal fire emissions reduced peak surface shortwave radiation at by 25 W m-2 An aerosol-enabled globally driven regional modeling system is developed ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Potential vorticity: Measuring consistency between GCM dynamical cores and tracer advection schemes

Ertel's potential vorticity (PV) is used as a diagnostic tool to give a direct comparison between the treatment of PV in the dynamics and the integration of PV as a passive tracer, yielding a systematic evaluation of a model's consistency between the dynamical core's integration of the equations of motion and its tracer transport algorithm. Several quantitative and qualitative metrics are considered to measure the consistency, including error norms and grid‐independent probability density functions. Comparisons between the four dynamical cores of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM) are presented. We investigate the consistency of these dynamical cores in an idealized setting: the presence of a breaking baroclinic wave. For linear flow, before the wave breaks, the consistency for each model is good. As the flow becomes nonlinear, the consistency between dynamic PV and tracer PV breaks down, especially at small scales. Large values of dynamic PV are observed that do not appear in the tracer PV. The results indicate that the spectral‐element (CAM‐SE) dynamical core is the most consistent of the dynamical cores in CAM, however the consistency between dynamic PV and tracer PV is related to and sensitive to the diffusive properties of the dynamical cores.

Sensitivity of tropospheric chemical composition to halogen-radical chemistry using a fully coupled size-resolved multiphase chemistry–global climate system: halogen distributions, aerosol composition, and sensitivity of climate-relevant gases

Abstract. Observations and model calculations indicate that highly non-linear multiphase atmospheric processes involving inorganic Cl and Br significantly impact tropospheric chemistry and composition, aerosol evolution, and radiative transfer. The sensitivity of global atmospheric chemistry to the production of marine aerosol and the associated activation and cycling of inorganic Cl and Br was investigated using a size-resolved multiphase coupled chemistry–global climate model (National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) v3.6.33). Simulated results revealed strong meridional and vertical gradients in Cl and Br species. They also point to possible physicochemical mechanisms that may account for several previously unexplained phenomena, including the enrichment of Br- in submicron aerosol and the presence of a BrO maximum in the polar free troposphere. However, simulated total volatile inorganic Br mixing ratios in the troposphere were generally higher than observed, due in part to the overly efficient net production of BrCl. In addition, the emission scheme for marine aerosol and associated Br−, which is the only source for Br in the model, overestimates emission fluxes from the high-latitude Southern Ocean. Br in the stratosphere was lower than observed due to the lack of long-lived precursor organobromine species in the simulation. Comparing simulations using chemical mechanisms with and without reactive Cl and Br species demonstrates a significant temporal and spatial sensitivity of primary atmospheric oxidants (O3, HOx, NOx), CH4, non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), and dimethyl sulfide (DMS) to halogen cycling. Globally, halogen chemistry had relatively less impact on SO2 and non-sea-salt (nss) SO42− although significant regional differences were evident. Although variable geographically, much of this sensitivity is attributable to either over-vigorous activation of Br (primarily BrCl) via the chemical mechanism or overproduction of sea-salt aerosol simulated under higher-wind regimes. In regions where simulated mixing ratios of reactive Br and Cl fell within observed ranges, though, halogen chemistry drove large changes in oxidant fields and associated chemical processes relative to simulations with no halogens. However, the overall simulated impacts of Br chemistry globally are overestimated and thus caution is warranted in their interpretation.

Recent variability of the tropical tropopause inversion layer

The recent variability of the tropopause temperature and the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) are investigated with Global Positioning System Radio Occultation data and simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Over the past decade (2001–2011) the data show an increase of 0.8 K in the tropopause temperature and a decrease of 0.4 K in the strength of the tropopause inversion layer in the tropics, meaning that the vertical temperature gradient has declined, and therefore that the stability above the tropopause has weakened. WACCM simulations with finer vertical resolution show a more realistic TIL structure and variability. Model simulations show that the increased tropopause temperature and the weaker tropopause inversion layer are related to weakened upwelling in the tropics. Such changes in the thermal structure of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere may have important implications for climate, such as a possible rise in water vapor in the lower stratosphere.

Coral Reef Habitat Response to Climate Change Scenarios

Coral reef ecosystems are threatened by both climate change and direct anthropogenic stress. Climate change will alter the physico-chemical environment that reefs currently occupy, leaving only limited regions that are conducive to reef habitation. Identifying these regions early may aid conservation efforts and inform decisions to transplant particular coral species or groups. Here a species distribution model (Maxent) is used to describe habitat suitable for coral reef growth. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model were used with Maxent to determine environmental suitability for corals (order Scleractinia). Environmental input variables best at representing the limits of suitable reef growth regions were isolated using a principal component analysis. Climate-driven changes in suitable habitat depend strongly on the unique region of reefs used to train Maxent. Increased global habitat loss was predicted in both climate projections through the 21st century. A maximum habitat loss of 43% by 2100 was predicted in RCP4.5 and 82% in RCP8.5. When the model is trained solely with environmental data from the Caribbean/Atlantic, 83% of global habitat was lost by 2100 for RCP4.5 and 88% was lost for RCP8.5. Similarly, global runs trained only with Pacific Ocean reefs estimated that 60% of suitable habitat would be lost by 2100 in RCP4.5 and 90% in RCP8.5. When Maxent was trained solely with Indian Ocean reefs, suitable habitat worldwide increased by 38% in RCP4.5 by 2100 and 28% in RCP8.5 by 2050. Global habitat loss by 2100 was just 10% for RCP8.5. This projection suggests that shallow tropical sites in the Indian Ocean basin experience conditions today that are most similar to future projections of worldwide conditions. Indian Ocean reefs may thus be ideal candidate regions from which to select the best strands of coral for potential re-seeding efforts.

A global model of meteoric sodium

A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short‐term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground‐based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.