Atmospheric Flow Regimes Research Articles

Flow Dependence of Medium-Range Precipitation Forecast Skill over California

Abstract This study employs a long time series (1997–2017) of reforecasts based on a version of the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System to evaluate the dependence of medium-range (i.e., 3–15 days) precipitation forecast skill over California on the state of the large-scale atmospheric flow. As a basis for this evaluation, four recurrent large-scale flow regimes over the North Pacific and western North America associated with precipitation in a domain encompassing northern and central California were objectively identified in ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data for November–March 1981–2017. Two of the regimes are characterized by zonal upper-level flow across the North Pacific, and the other two are characterized by wavy, blocked flow. Forecast verification statistics conditioned on regime occurrence indicate considerably lower medium-range precipitation skill over California in blocking regimes than in zonal regimes. Moreover, forecasts of blocking regimes tend to exhibit larger errors and uncertainty in the synoptic-scale flow over the eastern North Pacific and western North America compared with forecasts of zonal regimes. Composite analyses for blocking forecasts reveal a tendency for errors to develop in conjunction with the amplification of a ridge over the western and central North Pacific. The errors in the ridge tend to be communicated through the large-scale Rossby wave pattern, resulting in misforecasting of downstream trough amplification and, thereby, moisture flux and precipitation over California. The composites additionally indicate that error growth in the blocking ridge can be linked to misrepresentation of baroclinic development as well as upper-level divergent outflow associated with latent heat release. Significance Statement This study examines the degree to which the medium-range (out to ∼2-week lead time) precipitation forecast skill over California depends on the large-scale atmospheric flow regime over the North Pacific. An evaluation of retrospective model forecasts from ECMWF for 1997–2017 reveals that the skill tends to be considerably lower in regimes featuring a wavy, “blocked” North Pacific jet stream than in regimes featuring a west–east-oriented jet stream. This difference in skill relates to a tendency for forecasts of blocked regimes to exhibit significantly larger errors than forecasts of zonal regimes. The results could aid forecasters by increasing situational awareness and informing the interpretation and application of model forecasts for precipitation affecting California.

In-orbit aerodynamic coefficient measurements using SOAR (Satellite for Orbital Aerodynamics Research)

The Satellite for Orbital Aerodynamics Research (SOAR) is a CubeSat mission, due to be launched in 2021, to investigate the interaction between different materials and the atmospheric flow regime in very low Earth orbits (VLEO). Improving knowledge of the gas–surface interactions at these altitudes and identification of novel materials that can minimise drag or improve aerodynamic control are important for the design of future spacecraft that can operate in lower altitude orbits. Such satellites may be smaller and cheaper to develop or can provide improved Earth observation data or communications link-budgets and latency. In order to achieve these objectives, SOAR features two payloads: (i) a set of steerable fins which provide the ability to expose different materials or surface finishes to the oncoming flow with varying angle of incidence whilst also providing variable geometry to investigate aerostability and aerodynamic control; and (ii) an ion and neutral mass spectrometer with time-of-flight capability which enables accurate measurement of the in-situ flow composition, density, velocity. Using precise orbit and attitude determination information and the measured atmospheric flow characteristics the forces and torques experienced by the satellite in orbit can be studied and estimates of the aerodynamic coefficients calculated. This paper presents the scientific concept and design of the SOAR mission. The methodology for recovery of the aerodynamic coefficients from the measured orbit, attitude, and in-situ atmospheric data using a least-squares orbit determination and free-parameter fitting process is described and the experimental uncertainty of the resolved aerodynamic coefficients is estimated. The presented results indicate that the combination of the satellite design and experimental methodology are capable of clearly illustrating the variation of drag and lift coefficient for differing surface incidence angle. The lowest uncertainties for the drag coefficient measurement are found at approximately 300 km, whilst the measurement of lift coefficient improves for reducing orbital altitude to 200 km.

Semi‐implicit integration of the unified equations in a mass‐based coordinate: model formulation and numerical testing

This paper derives the unified equations of Arakawa and Konor rigorously formulated in a suitable mass‐based sigma coordinate and develops an efficient semi‐implicit integration scheme. The unified equations accurately capture the non‐hydrostatic small‐scale effects and retain the hydrostatic compressibility of the flow at large scales. As with the classical quasi‐hydrostatic equations, the underlying approximations filter vertically propagating acoustic waves. In contrast to the quasi‐hydrostatic equations, however, the filtering property of the unified equations requires that the wind field satisfy a divergence constraint similar to anelastic and pseudo‐incompressible (small‐scale limit) soundproof systems. An efficient semi‐implicit integration scheme for the unified equation system is achieved by combining a constant‐coefficient linear partitioning approach with an iterative implicit treatment of the nonlinear residuals arising from the soundproof divergence constraint. The resulting linear implicit problem to be solved at each iteration may be reduced to a single Helmholtz equation with horizontally homogeneous coefficients, which is akin to the one typically solved in the semi‐implicit integration of the quasi‐hydrostatic equations. The stability and accuracy of the developed semi‐implicit scheme for the unified equations in the mass‐based coordinate is numerically assessed by means of standard vertical plane test cases in linear and nonlinear atmospheric flow regimes. Moreover, in order to ascertain the convergence of the iterative semi‐implicit scheme, the test cases also include a large‐scale 3D configuration that resembles the stiffness typically encountered in global atmospheric models.

Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data

Abstract. We derive a minimal dynamical systems model for the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude jet dynamics by embedding atmospheric data and by investigating its properties (bifurcation structure, stability, local dimensions) for different atmospheric flow regimes. The derivation is a three-step process: first, we obtain a 1-D description of the midlatitude jet stream by computing the position of the jet at each longitude using ERA-Interim. Next, we use the embedding procedure to derive a map of the local jet position dynamics. Finally, we introduce the coupling and stochastic effects deriving from both atmospheric turbulence and topographic disturbances to the jet. We then analyze the dynamical properties of the model in different regimes: one that gives the closest representation of the properties extracted from real data; one featuring a stronger jet (strong coupling); one featuring a weaker jet (weak coupling); and one with modified topography. Our model, notwithstanding its simplicity, provides an instructive description of the dynamical properties of the atmospheric jet.

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation at local and regional scales: a case study of the Belgian coast

Together, large‐scale atmospheric circulation and local winds determine the occurrence of storm surges that may result in disastrous erosion. This study investigates the interrelationships between large‐scale atmospheric flow and local wind regimes as driving factors of erosion at the Belgian coast. The large‐scale atmospheric circulation is examined in terms of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and it is analysed and compared with regional‐scale circulation patterns (i.e. circulation weather types) and local wind regimes, on both annual and seasonal timescales. The results indicate that a strengthening of the positive winter NAO phase can result in an increase in the frequencies of west (W), southwest (SW) and northwest (NW) directional weather types, leading to local wind speeds in excess of 8ms−1, propagating towards the coast. These conditions are likely to lead to erosive events at the coast. By contrast, a weakening of the winter NAO phase can favour the development of northeast (NE), north (N), east (E) and southeast (SE) weather types. The NE and E types generate particularly strong winds, which potentially worsen erosion at the coast. The E and SE types do not, however, affect wind at a local scale. Thus, the extent to which the wind regime at the Belgian coast is sensitive to the winter NAO is a function of the equilibrium between the NAO effects and the regional atmospheric flow direction. In this study, a downscaling conceptual model is developed which relates climate to large‐scale and local‐scale coastal erosion forcing factors. A better understanding of the variability of, and the interrelationships between, climate, meteorology and erosion can help us to adapt to the changes in coastal evolution driven by climate change, improving the prospects of long‐term coastal resilience.

Ejective and Sweeping Motions Above a Peatland and Their Role in Relaxed-Eddy-Accumulation Measurements and Turbulent Transport Modelling

The three turbulent velocity components, water vapour ( $$\text {H}_2\text {O}$$ ), carbon dioxide ( $$\text {CO}_{2}$$ ), and methane ( $$\text {CH}_{4}$$ ) concentration fluctuations are measured above a boreal peatland and analyzed using conditional sampling and quadrant analysis. The overarching question to be addressed is to what degree lower-order cumulant expansion methods describe transport efficiency and the relative importance of ejections and sweeps to momentum, $$\text {CH}_{4}$$ , $$\text {CO}_{2}$$ and $$\text {H}_2\text {O}$$ fluxes across a range of atmospheric flow regimes. The patchy peatland surface creates distinctly different source and sink distributions for the three scalars in space and time thereby adding to the uniqueness of the set-up. The measured and modelled fractional contributions to the momentum flux show that sweep events dominate over ejections in agreement with prior studies conducted in the roughness sublayer. For scalar fluxes, ejections dominate the turbulent fluxes over sweeps. While ejective motions persist longer for momentum transport, sweeping events persist longer for all three scalars. Third-order cumulant expansions describe many of the results detailed above, and the results are surprising given the highly non-Gaussian distribution of $$\text {CH}_{4}$$ turbulent fluctuations. Connections between the asymmetric contributions of sweeps and ejections and the flux-transport term arising in scalar turbulent-flux-budget closure are derived and shown to agree reasonably well with measurements. The proposed model derived here is much simpler than prior structural models used to describe laboratory experiments. Implications of such asymmetric contributions on, (i) the usage of the now proliferating relaxed-eddy-accumulation method in turbulent flux measurements, (ii) the constant-flux assumption, and (iii) gradient-diffusion closure models are presented.

Corrigendum to “Evaluating Linkages between Atmospheric Blocking Patterns and Heavy Rainfall Events across the North-Central Mississippi River Valley for Different ENSO Phases”

Over the last six to seven decades, there has been a substantial increase in atmospheric research to better understand the dynamics and evolution of atmospheric blocking events. It is well known that atmospheric blocking serves as a catalyst for increasing the frequency of atmospheric flow regime stagnation and forecast unpredictability. This study built upon the results of previous work by expanding upon the findings of various climatologies and case studies. This work analyzes specific trends observed in association with atmospheric blocking predominantly across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Such trends include the relationship between the size, duration, and onset position of atmospheric blocking events and the frequency, duration, and intensity of heavy rainfall events across the central United States. A strong focus is placed on examining the duration and spatial extent of atmospheric blocking which has been found to influence the intensity of heavy rainfall events. The goal is to further bridge the gap between the location and duration of blocking highs and the intensity, duration, and frequency of heavy rainfall events which occur downstream of such blocking events.

The Dynamic Character of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regimes in a Near-Term Climate Change Projection

The dynamic character of an enstrophy-based diagnostic, previously used in the study of atmospheric blocking, is examined here, in near-term future simulations from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) and version 5 (IPSL-CM5) climate models of the Northern Hemisphere flow for moderate climate change scenarios. Previous research has shown that integrated regional enstrophy (IE) increases during blocking onset and decay, which is a reflection of planetary-scale instability. In addition, IE has been shown previously to increase during flow regime transitions in general, even those not associated with blocking events. Here, a 31-year IE diagnostic time series is examined for changes in short term (5–40 days) planetary-scale variability that may correspond flow regime changes in an increased carbon dioxide environment. The time-series analysis herein indicates that the IE diagnostic provides evidence for approximately 30–35 atmospheric flow regime transitions per year in a warmer climate, which is similar to that of the control run and the latest 30-year observed climate, as derived from re-analyses. This result has implications regarding the predictability of weather in a warmer world.

Evaluating Linkages between Atmospheric Blocking Patterns and Heavy Rainfall Events across the North-Central Mississippi River Valley for Different ENSO Phases

Over the last six to seven decades, there has been a substantial increase in atmospheric research to better understand the dynamics and evolution of atmospheric blocking events. It is well known that atmospheric blocking serves as a catalyst for increasing the frequency of atmospheric flow regime stagnation and forecast unpredictability. This study built upon the results of previous work by expanding upon the findings of various climatologies and case studies. This work analyzes specific trends observed in association with atmospheric blocking predominantly across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Such trends include the relationship between the size, duration, and onset position of atmospheric blocking events and the frequency, duration, and intensity of heavy rainfall events across the central United States. A strong focus is placed on examining the duration and spatial extent of atmospheric blocking which has been found to influence the intensity of heavy rainfall events. The goal is to further bridge the gap between the location and duration of blocking highs and the intensity, duration, and frequency of heavy rainfall events which occur downstream of such blocking events.

Sensitive versus Rough Dependence under Initial Conditions in Atmospheric Flow Regimes

In this work, we will identify the existence of “rough dependence on initial conditions” in atmospheric phenomena, a concept which is a problem for weather analysis and forecasting. Typically, two initially similar atmospheric states will diverge slowly over time such that forecasting the weather using the Navier-Stokes equations is useless after some characteristic time scale. With rough dependence, two initial states diverge very quickly, implying forecasting may be impossible. Using previous research in atmospheric science, rough dependence is characterized by using quantities that can be calculated using atmospheric data and quantities. Rough dependence will be tested for and identified in atmospheric phenomena at different time scales using case studies. Data were provided for this project by archives outside the University of Missouri (MU) and by using the MU RADAR at the South Farm experiment station.

An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators.

The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5-10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motions are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.

Swell dissipation by induced atmospheric shear stress

AbstractObservations of swell dissipation across oceans reveal a significant loss of energy that can be the result of many of processes. Among these candidate mechanisms, this paper examines the properties of the viscous air‐sea boundary layer driven by swells in order to characterize the induced atmospheric flow regime and its associated viscous dissipation over swells. A series of 3‐D numerical experiments is carried out with a RANS model and appropriate turbulence closure. These experiments reveal a laminar to turbulent transition in the near free‐surface region for a common range of characteristic amplitudes and periods of swells under stationary conditions. At low Reynolds number, laminar conditions prevail and computed decay rates conform to the analytical formulation μν of the Stokes interfacial boundary layer for this problem. The turbulent regimes are characterized as well, and the new decay rates follow a nondimensional relation above (e.g., amplitude larger than 1.1 m for a 14 s monochromatic wave period). Typical decay rates are up to 4 times above the laminar values, which is a factor 10 less than the largest rates estimated for oceanic conditions. A sensitivity analysis is finally conducted to evaluate the influence of the stationary hypothesis. It demonstrates a short setup length and low relative variations of the unsteady decay rates for laminar, transitioning and developed turbulent conditions, which confirms the evaluation of steady decay rates.

Statistical–dynamical downscaling of present day and future precipitation regimes in the Aksu river catchment in Central Asia

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to determine present day and future high-resolution rainfall distributions in the catchment of the river Aksu at the southern slopes of the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia. First, a circulation weather type (CWT) classification is employed to define typical lower atmospheric flow regimes from ERA-40 reanalysis data. Selected representatives of each CWT are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM 4.8 at a horizontal grid resolution of 0.0625°, using the ERA-40 reanalysis data as boundary conditions. Finally, the simulated representatives are recombined to obtain a high-resolution rainfall climatology for present day climate. The methodology is also applied to ensemble simulations of three different scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 to derive projections of rainfall changes until 2100.Comparisons of downscaled seasonal and annual rainfall with observational data suggest that the statistical–dynamical approach is appropriate to capture the observed present-day precipitation climatology over the low lands and the first elevations of the Tienshan Mountains. On the other hand, a strong bias is found at higher altitudes, where precipitation is clearly underestimated by SDD.The application of SDD to the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble reveals that precipitation changes by the end of the 21st century depend on the season. While for autumn an increase of seasonal precipitation is found for all simulations, a decrease in precipitation is obtained during winter for most parts of the Aksu catchment. The spread between different ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble members is strongest in spring, where trends of opposite sign are found. The largest changes in rainfall are simulated for the summer season, which also shows the most pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Most ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 realizations indicate a decrease of annual precipitation over large parts of the Tienshan, and an increase restricted to the southeast of the study area. These results provide a good basis for downscaling present-day and future rainfall distributions for hydrological purposes.

Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective

Attribution of extreme events shortly after their occurrence stretches the current state-of-theart of climate change assessment. To help foster the growth of this science, this article illustrates some approaches to answering questions about the role of human factors, and the relative role of different natural factors, for six specific extreme weather or climate events of 2011. Not every event is linked to climate change. The rainfall associated with the devastating Thailand floods can be explained by climate variability. But long-term warming played a part in the others. While La Nina contributed to the failure of the rains in the Horn of Africa, an increased frequency of such droughts there was linked to warming in the Western Pacific– Indian Ocean warm pool. Europe's record warm temperatures would probably not have been as unusual if the high temperatures had been caused only by the atmospheric flow regime without any long-term warming. Calculating how the odds of a particular extreme event have change...

Hamiltonian particle‐mesh simulations for a non‐hydrostatic vertical slice model

AbstractA Lagrangian particle method is developed for the simulation of atmospheric flows in a non‐hydrostatic vertical slice model. The proposed particle method is an extension of the Hamiltonian particle mesh (HPM) [Frank J, Gottwald G, Reich S. 2002. The Hamiltonian particle‐mesh method. In Meshfree Methods for Partial Differential Equations, Lecture Notes in Computational Science and Engineering, Vol. 26, Griebel M, Schweitzer M (eds). Springer‐Verlag: Berlin Heidelberg; 131–142] and provides preservation of mass, momentum, and energy. We tested the method for the gravity wave test in Skamarock W, Klemp J. 1994. Efficiency and accuracy of the Klemp‐Wilhelmson time‐splitting technique. Monthly Weather Review 122: 2623–2630 and the bubble experiments in Robert A. 1993. Bubble convection experiments with a semi‐implicit formulation of the Euler equations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 50: 1865–1873. The accuracy of the solutions from the HPM simulation is comparable to those reported in these references. A particularly appealing aspect of the method is in its non‐diffusive transport of potential temperature. The solutions are maintained smooth largely due to a ‘regularization’ of pressure, which is controlled carefully to preserve the total energy and the time‐reversibility of the model. In case of the bubble experiments, one also needs to regularize the buoyancy contributions. The simulations demonstrate that particle methods are potentially applicable to non‐hydrostatic atmospheric flow regimes and that they lead to a highly accurate transport of materially conserved quantities such as potential temperature under adiabatic flow regimes. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Atmospheric teleconnections and flow regimes under future climate projections

This paper presents an analysis of the low-frequency variability of the midtropospheric atmospheric flow of the Northern Hemisphere during winter in terms of teleconnection patterns and atmospheric flow regimes. Teleconnection patterns have been determined by two different methods, correlation analysis and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Flow regimes have been determined by analysing the structure of a spherical probability density function in a low-dimensional state space spanned by the three leading empirical orthogonal functions. To assess the ability of state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), multi-model simulations for present day conditions, performed for the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been analysed. The comparison with observations reveals, that state-of-the-art AOGCMs are able to describe the low-frequency variability in terms of teleconnections and flow regimes realistically. The analyses of simulations for future climate scenarios reveal changes in the strengths of the centers of action. Concerning climate regimes, two new regimes appear and additionally, slight changes were found in the structure of some regimes.

North American Snow Depth and Climate Teleconnection Patterns

Abstract Snow–atmosphere relationships have been studied for nearly half a century, but the primary focus has been on snow extent variability, largely because of the relative scarcity of snow depth data. A recently released North American snow depth dataset, with extensive spatial coverage and multidecadal temporal duration, provides a new opportunity to compare snow depth–climate relationships with snow extent–climate relationships over North America. Robust concurrent lead and lag correlations are observed between snow depth and two major climate modes, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern, across North America and throughout the snow season. In contrast, snow extent exhibits a less coherent relationship with PDO and PNA except in late spring, which can be interpreted as a residual of the snow depth–climate mode relationship. A regional signature for the snow depth–PDO/PNA relationship is also identified, centered over interior central-western North America. Smaller scales mask the regional effect of PDO and PNA because of local snow depth variability, while larger continental scales exceed the regional domain of the climate mode teleconnections. Overall these results suggest that North American snow depth variability may have greater climatic causes and consequences than snow extent. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the observed snow depth–climate teleconnection patterns such as the surface energy balance, moisture transport, and atmospheric flow regimes are briefly discussed.

A Hidden Markov Model Perspective on Regimes and Metastability in Atmospheric Flows

Abstract In this study, data from three atmospheric models are analyzed to investigate the existence of atmospheric flow regimes despite nearly Gaussian statistics of the planetary waves in these models. A hierarchy of models is used, which describes the atmospheric circulation with increasing complexity. To systematically identify atmospheric regimes, the presence of metastable states in the data is searched for by fitting so-called hidden Markov models (HMMs) to the time series. A hidden Markov model is designed to describe the situation in which part of the information of the system is unknown or hidden and another part is observed. Within the context of this study, some representative variable of planetary-scale flow (e.g., mean zonal flow or leading principal component) is known (“observed”), but its dynamics may depend crucially on the overall flow configuration, which is unknown. The behavior of this latter, “hidden” variable is described by a Markov chain. If the Markov chain possesses metastable (or quasi persistent) states, they are identified as regimes. In this perspective, regimes can be present even though the observed data have a nearly Gaussian probability distribution. The parameters of the HMMs are fit to the time series using a maximum-likelihood approach; well-established and robust numerical methods are available to do this. Possible metastability of the Markov chain is assessed by inspecting the eigenspectrum of the associated transition probability matrix. The HMM procedure is first applied to data from a simplified model of barotropic flow over topography with a large-scale mean flow. This model exhibits regime behavior of its large-scale mean flow for sufficiently high topography. In the case of high topography, the authors find three regimes, two of which correspond to zonal flow and the third to blocking. Next, a three-layer quasigeostrophic model is used as a prototype atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). Its first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) is similar to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and exhibits metastability. For this model, two regime states are found: one corresponding to the positive phase of the AO with large amplitude and decreased variability of the streamfunction field, and another corresponding to the negative AO phase with small amplitude and increased variability. Finally, the authors investigate a comprehensive GCM. The leading four EOFs of this model show no signs of metastability. The results of the barotropic flow over topography and of the quasigeostrophic model suggest that the observed small skewness of planetary wave probability density functions (PDFs) is an imprint of blocked circulation states.

Inconsistency between atmospheric dynamics and temperatures during the exceptional 2006/2007 fall/winter and recent warming in Europe

Europe witnessed unprecedented warmth persisting throughout fall and winter 2006–2007, with only a few cold breaks. Whether this anomaly and recent warming in Europe can be linked to changes in atmospheric dynamics is a key question in the climate change prospective. We show that despite the fall/winter atmospheric flow was favorable to warmth, it cannot explain alone such an exceptional anomaly. Observed temperatures remained well above those found for analogue atmospheric circulations in other fall and winter seasons. Such an offset is also found during the last decade and culminates in 2006/2007. These observational results suggest that the main drivers of recent European warming are not changes in regional atmospheric flow and weather regimes frequencies, contrasting with observed changes before 1994.

LGM Summer Climate on the Southern Margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet: Wet or Dry?*

Abstract Regional climate simulations are conducted using the Polar fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with a 60-km horizontal resolution domain over North America to explore the summer climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 000 calendar years ago), when much of the continent was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). Output from a tailored NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulation of the LGM climate is used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for Polar MM5. LGM boundary conditions include continental ice sheets, appropriate orbital forcing, reduced CO2 concentration, paleovegetation, modified sea surface temperatures, and lowered sea level. The simulated LGM summer climate is characterized by a pronounced low-level thermal gradient along the southern margin of the LIS resulting from the juxtaposition of the cold ice sheet and adjacent warm ice-free land surface. This sharp thermal gradient anchors the midtropospheric jet stream and facilitates the development of synoptic cyclones that track over the ice sheet, some of which produce copious liquid precipitation along and south of the LIS terminus. Precipitation on the southern margin is orographically enhanced as moist southerly low-level flow (resembling a contemporary Great Plains low-level jet configuration) in advance of the cyclone is drawn up the ice sheet slope. Composites of wet and dry periods on the LIS southern margin illustrate two distinctly different atmospheric flow regimes. Given the episodic nature of the summer rain events, it may be possible to reconcile the model depiction of wet conditions on the LIS southern margin during the LGM summer with the widely accepted interpretation of aridity across the Great Plains based on geological proxy evidence.