Atmospheric Data Assimilation Research Articles

Impact of Channel Selection with Different Bandwidths on Retrieval at 50–60 GHz

Microwave hyperspectral instruments represent one of the main atmospheric sounders of China’s next-generation Fengyun meteorological satellites. In order to better apply microwave hyperspectral observations in the fields of atmospheric parameter retrieval and data assimilation, this paper analyzes the sensitivity of trace gases to five selected bandwidth channels using a radiative transfer model based on the simulated data of microwave hyperspectral radiances at 50–60 GHz. This method uses information entropy and a weighting function to select channels and analyze the impact of this on the retrieval accuracy of atmospheric profiles before and after channel selection. The experimental results show that channel selection can reduce the number of channels by approximately 74.05% while maintaining a large amount of information content, and this retrieval effect is significantly better than that of MWTS-III. After channel selection, the 10 MHz, 30 MHz, and 50 MHz bandwidths have the best retrieval results in the stratosphere, whole atmosphere, and troposphere, respectively. When considering the number of channels, computational scale, and retrieval results comprehensively, the channel selection method is effective.

Airborne lidar measurements of atmospheric CO2 column concentrations to cloud tops made during the 2017 ASCENDS/ABoVE campaign

Abstract. We measured the column-averaged atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio (XCO2) to a variety of cloud tops with an airborne pulsed multi-wavelength integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar during NASA's 2017 ASCENDS/ABoVE airborne campaign. Measurements of height-resolved atmospheric backscatter profiles allow this lidar to retrieve XCO2 to cloud tops, as well as to the ground, with accurate knowledge of the photon path length. We validated these measurements with those from an onboard in situ CO2 sensor during spiral-down maneuvers. These lidar measurements were 2–3 times better than those from previous airborne campaigns due to our using a wavelength step-locked laser transmitter and a high-efficiency detector for this campaign. Precisions of 0.6 parts per million (ppm) were achieved for 10 s average measurements to mid-level clouds and 0.9 ppm to low-level clouds at the top of the planetary boundary layer. This study demonstrates the lidar's capability to fill in XCO2 measurement gaps in cloudy regions and to help resolve the vertical and horizontal distributions of atmospheric CO2. Future airborne campaigns and spaceborne missions with this capability can be used to improve atmospheric transport modeling, flux estimation and carbon data assimilation.

Application of GOES-16 Atmospheric Temperature-Profile Data Assimilation in a Hurricane Forecast

This paper selects the case of the Atlantic hurricane “Michael” in 2018 to evaluate the accuracy of the GOES-16 atmospheric temperature profile during the hurricane and its effect on forecasting. Based on the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, the assimilation of GOES-16 atmospheric temperature-profile products was achieved by using three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and the ensemble transform Kalman filter/three-dimensional variational (ETKF/3DVAR) hybrid system (Hybrid) systems. And the impact of geostationary satellite GOES-16 atmospheric temperature-profile data assimilation on a hurricane forecast is evaluated. The results show that, during the hurricane, the root mean square errors of the GOES-16 atmospheric temperature profile are all within 2 k at the height of 200–1000 hPa, and the quality of the data is generally good. Assimilating the GOES-16 atmospheric temperature-profile data can indeed effectively improve the analysis increment and improve the prediction results. The assimilation increment obtained by the hybrid system has obvious “flow-dependent” characteristics, which can reasonably improve the initial field of the model. Its temperature increment has an obvious spiral structure, which is in line with the characteristics of the hurricane, and the adjustment of the wind field and geopotential height field is also more beneficial to the development of the hurricane. It has a positive impact on the forecast of track, intensity, and precipitation, and the hybrid system is improved more obviously. In addition, from the RMSE of the analysis field and the forecast field relative to the observation data of different elements, the hybrid system is superior to the 3DVar system.

Comparative study of strongly and weakly coupled data assimilation with a global land–atmosphere coupled model

Abstract. This study explores coupled land–atmosphere data assimilation (DA) for improving weather and hydrological forecasts by assimilating soil moisture (SM) data. This study integrates a land DA component into a global atmospheric DA system of the Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (NICAM-LETKF) and performs both strongly and weakly coupled land–atmosphere DA experiments. We explore various types of coupled DA experiments by assimilating atmospheric observations and SM data simultaneously. The results show that analyzing atmospheric variables by assimilating SM data improves the SM analysis and forecasts and mitigates a warm bias in the lower troposphere where a dry SM bias exists. On the other hand, updating SM by assimilating atmospheric observations has detrimental impacts due to spurious error correlations between the atmospheric observations and land model variables. We also find that assimilating SM by strongly coupled DA is beneficial in the Sahel and equatorial Africa from May to October. These regions are characterized by seasonal variations in the precipitation patterns and benefit from updates in the atmospheric variables through SM DA during periods of increased precipitation. Additionally, these regions coincide with those identified in the previous studies, where a global initialization of SM would enhance the prediction skill of seasonal precipitation.

A weakly coupled land surface analysis with SMAP radiance assimilation improves GEOS medium‐range forecasts of near‐surface air temperature and humidity

AbstractThe NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) employs a hybrid four‐dimensional ensemble‐variational (Hybrid‐4DEnVar) atmospheric data assimilation system to provide global, near‐real time weather analysis and forecast products. This study introduces a land analysis into the GEOS Hybrid‐4DEnVar system to additionally assimilate L‐band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature observations over land from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission, which are highly sensitive to surface (∼0–5 cm) soil moisture. This weakly coupled land analysis impacts the simulated and forecast atmosphere through the land–atmosphere exchange processes encoded in the atmospheric model. Retrospective assimilation experiments for boreal summer 2017 were conducted with the system at 50 km horizontal resolution. The SMAP assimilation is shown to mitigate errors in screen‐level (2 m) specific humidity (q2m) and temperature (T2m), with regional reductions in the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of q2m and maximum daily T2m by up to 0.4 g·kg−1 and 0.3 K, respectively. These improvements are somewhat smaller than those found in a precursor study that used the atmospheric analysis in the simpler, 3‐dimensional variational (3DVar) atmospheric assimilation configuration of the current GEOS reanalysis; Hybrid‐4DEnVar provides overall better near‐surface background estimates than 3DVar and therefore leaves less room for improvement. Finally, in the Hybrid‐4DEnVar system with SMAP assimilation, forecasts of q2m and T2m have significantly improved anomaly correlation and RMSE (99% confidence) at lead times out to 5 days compared to the Hybrid‐4DEnVar system without SMAP assimilation, with medium‐range lead times extended by ∼3 hr for q2m and ∼2 hr for T2m. Slight but nevertheless significant improvements are also seen for temperature forecasts at the 925 and 850 hPa levels and lead times out to 4 days. Humidity forecasts at 925 and 850 hPa are improved out to 1.5‐day lead time with 90% confidence.

Estimation of AMSU-A Radiance Observation Impacts in an LETKF-Based Atmospheric Global Data Assimilation System: Comparison with EFSO and Observing System Experiments

Abstract This work assesses the contribution of assimilating AMSU-A satellite-based radiance measurements to a global data assimilation system based on an atmospheric general circulation model and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). The radiance measurements were from three channels that are sensitive to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The contribution of these measurements, or AMSU-A observation impact, was estimated both through ensemble-based forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) and observing system experiments (OSEs). Two streams of data-denial experiments for the AMSU-A observations were performed for about one month during winter in each hemisphere. The OSEs quantified the accumulated observation impact by cycling (repeating) data denials: including AMSU-A observations reduced the total observation impact for all observations of each data assimilation cycle. In contrast, EFSO estimated AMSU-A to increase the total observation impact. The opposing effects were attributed to the accumulated observation impact in the OSEs; the accumulation could stabilize the data assimilation cycles. In both experiments, the accumulated observation impact of AMSU-A was strongest in the upper troposphere, particularly in the austral midlatitudes where westerly jets exist and observations of other types are sparse. EFSO also assessed AMSU-A to have the most beneficial observation impact in similar locations. The AMSU-A observation impact tended to accumulate just downstream of where EFSO estimated the beneficial observation impact signals. The accumulated AMSU-A observation impact was tied to dynamic processes in the upper-tropospheric and general stratospheric circulation. Therefore, EFSO helps estimate the beneficial distributions of AMSU-A accumulated observation impact by considering their dynamical propagation. Significance Statement The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) satellite radiance assimilation technique was successfully integrated into the Atmospheric General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator (AFES)–LETKF data assimilation system. We conducted OSEs and used EFSO to assess the AMSU-A observation impact. The two estimation methods identified opposite observation impacts due to the cycling (repeating) OSEs of the AMSU-A observations. We interpreted the causes of the opposite estimations. However, even for the cycling OSEs, EFSO appeared to help estimate distributions of the accumulated observation impact. It is important to consider the dynamical propagation of accumulated observation impact in general circulation.

Evaluation of four meteorological reanalysis datasets for satellite-based PM2.5 retrieval over China

Meteorological reanalysis data is widely used for satellite-based retrieval of fine particulate matter (PM2.5); however, selecting appropriate data for specific regional applications remains a challenge. In China, numerous studies have used different meteorological reanalysis datasets for PM2.5 modeling, but few studies have provided their standards for data selection. In this study, we first evaluated the performance of four reanalysis datasets in China: the fifth-generation ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2), the GEOS-FP Atmospheric Data Assimilation System, and the Final Operational Model Global Tropospheric Analyses (FNL). The validation results show that ERA5 was the most accurate in terms of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and boundary layer height, whereas FNL had the highest uncertainty. The spatial accuracy of all four reanalysis datasets in the eastern region of China was notably higher than that in the western region (Qinghai-Tibet Plateau), owing to complex terrain and few ground-based observations for assimilation. We found that the use of ERA5 exhibited the best agreement with in situ measurements for PM2.5 retrieval, followed by MERRA2 and GEOS-FP, while FNL was the most inaccurate. Compared with FNL, ERA5 exhibited improved accuracy in retrieving PM2.5 during summer seasons by 12%, and reduced underestimation on heavy pollution days. Our results demonstrated that the ERA5 meteorological reanalysis is preferable for better PM2.5 retrieval in China. This study provides an actional guideline for selecting meteorological reanalysis data in subsequent satellite-based PM2.5 retrieval studies in China.

Ensemble‐Based Data Assimilation of GPM DPR Reflectivity: Cloud Microphysics Parameter Estimation With the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM)

AbstractDirect assimilation of Dual‐frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) data of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite is challenging mainly due to its long revisiting intervals relative to the time scale of precipitation, and precipitation location errors. This study explores a method for improving precipitation forecasts using GPM DPR through model parameter estimation. We developed a 28 km mesh global atmospheric data assimilation system that integrates the Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) coupled with a satellite radar simulator. Using the NICAM‐LETKF and GPM DPR observations, this study estimates a model cloud physics parameter corresponding to snowfall terminal velocity. To overcome the difficulties of long revisiting intervals and precipitation location errors, we propose a parameter estimation method based on a two‐dimensional histogram known as the contoured frequency by temperature diagram (CFTD). Parameter estimation effectively mitigated the gap between simulated and observed CFTD, resulting in improved 6 hr precipitation forecasts.

Assimilation of GNSS Zenith Total Delay in NAVGEM

AbstractA new data source from ground‐based stations that track global navigation satellite system (GNSS) transmitters has been implemented in the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) with the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System‐Accelerated Representer. The observable is the ground‐based zenith total delay (ZTD) at each ground station. This ground‐based GNSS ZTD represents the tropospheric delay of the propagation of GNSS radio L‐band signal between the transmitters and the ground stations after correcting for ionospheric effects. Here, we present the implementation procedure, quality control, single observation test, bias correction scheme, and data impact assessment. One of the critical elements in the quality control scheme is to correct for the difference between the observing ground station elevation and the numerical model terrain. A single observation test shows comparable impact from this new data source to a single radiosonde observation at a single level. The ZTD biases estimated from a 6‐month experiment run are generally small, but have a dependency on the processing center and are computed separately for each station. The forecast sensitivity to observation impact diagnosis from a 3‐month experiment demonstrates that a single ZTD observation shows similar impact as the average impact from a single tangent point of a GNSS Radio Occultation profile. The assimilation of ZTD observations also significantly improves the forecast skill by 0.25%–0.75% for wind, temperature, and precipitable water and by 1%–2% for geopotential height in the Southern Hemisphere beyond 3 days.

Impacts of Northeastern Pacific Buoy Surface Pressure Observations

Abstract Under the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) Program, ocean drifting buoys (drifters) that provide surface pressure observations were deployed in the northeastern Pacific Ocean to improve forecasts of U.S. West Coast high-impact weather. We examine the impacts of both AR Recon and non-AR Recon drifter observations in the U.S. Navy’s global atmospheric data assimilation (DA) and forecast system using data-denial experiments and forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) analysis, which estimates the impact of each observation on the 24-h global forecast error total energy. Considering all drifters in the eastern North Pacific for the 2020 AR Recon season, FSOI indicates that most of the beneficial impacts come from observations in the lowest quartile of observed surface pressure values, particularly those taken late in the DA window. Observations in the upper quartile have near-neutral impacts on average and are slightly nonbeneficial when taken late in the DA window. This may occur because the DA configuration used here does not account for model biases, and innovation statistics show that the forecast model has a low pressure bias at high pressures. Case studies and other analyses indicate large beneficial impacts coming from observations in regions with large surface pressure gradients and integrated vapor transport, such as fronts and ARs. Data-denial experiments indicate that the assimilation of AR Recon drifter observations results in a better-constrained analysis at nearby non-AR Recon drifter locations and counteracts the NAVGEM pressure bias. Assimilating the AR Recon drifter observations improves 72- and 96-h Northern Hemisphere forecasts of winds in the lower and middle troposphere, and geopotential height in the lower, middle, and upper troposphere. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to understand how observations of atmospheric pressure at the ocean surface provided by drifting buoys impact weather forecasts. Some of these drifting buoys were deployed under a program to study atmospheric rivers (ARs) to improve forecasts of high-impact weather on the West Coast. We find that these observations are most effective at reducing forecast errors when taken in regions near fronts and cyclones. The additional drifting buoys deployed under the AR Reconnaissance project reduce forecast errors at 72 and 96 h over North America and the Northern Hemisphere. These results are important because they illustrate the potential for improving forecasts by increasing the number of drifting buoy surface pressure observations over the world oceans.

Assessment of Geo-Kompsat-2A Atmospheric Motion Vector Data and Its Assimilation Impact in the GEOS Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

Korea’s second geostationary meteorological satellite, Geo-Kompsat-2A (Geostationary-Korean Multi-Purpose Satellite-2A, GK2A), was successfully launched on 4 December 2018. GK2A generates Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) every 10 min in the full disk area. This data has been disseminated via Global Telecommunication System (GTS) since 25 October 2019. This article evaluates the quality of GK2A AMVs in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The data show slow wind speed biases at 200–300 hPa and 600–800 hPa in the northern and southern hemispheres. These biases are caused by observation height assignment errors near jet streams. The Equivalent Blackbody Temperature (EBBT) method of GK2A tends to assign clouds at higher altitude, which mainly causes slow wind speed biases, especially in the lower atmosphere. The IR/WV intercept method of GK2A assigns clouds slightly lower in the atmospheric layers below the altitude of 400 hPa, which causes positive biases. Quality control (QC) criteria to select the most suitable GK2A AMV data for assimilation are presented based on these quality assessments. A new QC criterion utilizing height errors within the GEOS ADAS is introduced to exclude data with slow wind speed biases and large errors. GEOS forecast accuracy is slightly improved after assimilating GK2A AMVs along with other conventional, radiance, and satellite winds which include AMVs made by the Himawari-8 satellite in nearly the same observational area of GK2A. Additionally, the present work shows that GEOS forecasts can be significantly improved, especially in the tropics and southern hemisphere after assimilating GK2A data in the absence of Himawari-8 AMVs. This study demonstrates that GK2A AMV data is a valuable data source to enhance the robustness of GEOS ADAS.

Assessment of Retrieved GMI Emissivity over Land, Snow, and Sea Ice in the GEOS System

Abstract Directly assimilating microwave radiances over land, snow, and sea ice remains a significant challenge for data assimilation systems. These data assimilation systems are critical to the success of global numerical weather prediction systems including the Global Earth Observing System–Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS). Extending more surface sensitive microwave channels over land, snow, and ice could provide a needed source of data for numerical weather prediction particularly in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Unfortunately, the accuracy of emissivity models currently available within the GEOS-ADAS along with other data assimilation systems are insufficient to simulate and assimilate radiances. Recently, Munchak et al. published a 5-yr climatological database for retrieved microwave emissivity from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) aboard the GPM mission. In this work the database is utilized by modifying the GEOS-ADAS to use this emissivity database in place of the default emissivity value available in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), which is the fast radiative transfer model used by the GEOS-ADAS. As a first step, the GEOS-ADAS is run in a so-called stand-alone mode to simulate radiances from GMI using the default CRTM emissivity, and replacing the default CRTM emissivity models with values from Munchak et al. The simulated GMI observations using Munchak et al. agree more closely with observations from GMI. These results are presented along with a discussion of the implication for GMI observations within the GEOS-ADAS.

Inland lake temperature initialization via coupled cycling with atmospheric data assimilation

Abstract. Application of lake models coupled within earth-system prediction models, especially for predictions from days to weeks, requires accurate initialization of lake temperatures. Commonly used methods to initialize lake temperatures include interpolation of global sea-surface temperature (SST) analyses to inland lakes, daily satellite-based observations, or model-based reanalyses. However, each of these methods have limitations in capturing the temporal characteristics of lake temperatures (e.g., effects of anomalously warm or cold weather) for all lakes within a geographic region and/or during extended cloudy periods. An alternative lake-initialization method was developed which uses two-way-coupled cycling of a small-lake model within an hourly data assimilation system of a weather prediction model. The lake model simulated lake temperatures were compared with other estimates from satellite and in situ observations and interpolated-SST data for a multi-month period in 2021. The lake cycling initialization, now applied to two operational US NOAA weather models, was found to decrease errors in lake surface temperature from as much as 5–10 K vs. interpolated-SST data to about 1–2 K compared to available in situ and satellite observations.

Continuum Covariance Propagation for Understanding Variance Loss in Advective Systems

Motivated by the spurious variance loss encountered during covariance propagation in atmospheric and other large-scale data assimilation systems, we consider the problem for state dynamics governed by the continuity and related hyperbolic partial differential equations. This loss of variance is often attributed to reduced-rank representations of the covariance matrix, as in ensemble methods for example, or else to the use of dissipative numerical methods. Through a combination of analytical work and numerical experiments, we demonstrate that significant variance loss, as well as gain, typically occurs during covariance propagation, even at full rank. The cause of this unusual behavior is a discontinuous change in the continuum covariance dynamics as correlation lengths become small, for instance in the vicinity of sharp gradients in the velocity field. This discontinuity in the covariance dynamics arises from hyperbolicity: the diagonal of the kernel of the covariance operator is a characteristic surface for advective dynamics. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that standard numerical methods for evolving the state are not adequate for propagating the covariance, because they do not capture the discontinuity in the continuum covariance dynamics as correlations lengths tend to zero. Our analytical and numerical results demonstrate in the context of mass conservation that this leads to significant, spurious variance loss in regions of mass convergence and gain in regions of mass divergence. The results suggest that developing local covariance propagation methods designed specifically to capture covariance evolution near the diagonal may prove a useful alternative to current methods of covariance propagation.

Coupled data assimilation at ECMWF: current status, challenges and future developments

AbstractThis article presents coupled data assimilation (DA) activities at the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Coupled DA is an essential component of the ECMWF Earth‐system strategy. It aims at providing consistent initial conditions to the coupled atmosphere, land, and ocean forecast model. The article introduces the different DA systems and observing systems for each Earth‐system component. It discusses challenges related to observation consistency, availability, and sustainability across the components. It gives a review of coupling methodologies and presents coupling methods in development at the ECMWF. The current ECMWF system relies on weakly coupled DA approaches between land and atmosphere, between wave and atmosphere, and between ocean and atmosphere. Research on coupled DA has been centred on outer loop coupling developments and evaluation, focused on ocean–atmosphere coupling for reanalysis and for numerical weather prediction. The latest configuration of the ocean–atmosphere outer loop coupling combines weak and outer loop coupling methods. The article discusses the challenges in assimilating surface‐sensitive observations and it presents opportunities that coupled DA offers to enhance the exploitation of interface observations. It presents recent developments on land–atmosphere forward operator coupling and multilayer snow‐emission modelling and shows the potential for coupled radiative transfer modelling at low‐frequency passive microwave. The article discusses ongoing developments of in‐house sea‐surface temperature analysis based on coupled skin temperature assimilation. It presents preliminary results that demonstrate meaningful upper ocean temperature increments when assimilating skin temperature information from four‐dimensional variational assimilation. Coupled assimilation results are illustrated and discussed in the context of several applications related to reanalysis, scatterometer impact on coupled ocean–atmosphere, tropical cyclone, impact of weakly coupled sea‐ice–atmosphere data assimilation as well as land surface coupled DA case studies. These examples illustrate benefits and challenges of coupled DA developments. The article discusses future plans of coupled DA developments in support of ECMWF's Earth‐system 2021–2030 strategy.

Land–Snow Data Assimilation Including a Moderately Coupled Initialization Method Applied to NWP

Abstract Initialization methods are needed for geophysical components of Earth system prediction models. These methods are needed from medium-range to decadal predictions and also for short-range Earth system forecasts in support of safety (e.g., severe weather), economic (e.g., energy), and other applications. Strongly coupled land–atmosphere data assimilation (SCDA), producing balanced initial conditions across the land–atmosphere components, has not yet been introduced to operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Most NWP systems have evolved separate data assimilation (DA) procedures for the atmosphere versus land/snow system components. This separated method has been classified as a weakly coupled DA system (WCDA). In the NOAA operational short-range weather models, a moderately coupled land–snow–atmosphere assimilation method (MCLDA) has been implemented, a step forward from WCDA toward SCDA. The atmosphere and land (including snow) variables are both updated within the DA using the same set of observations (aircraft, radiosonde, satellite radiances, surface, etc.). Using this assimilation method, land surface state variables have cycled continuously for 6 years since 2015 for the 3-km NOAA HRRR model and with CONUS cycling since 1997. Month-long experiments were conducted with and without MCLDA for both winter and summer seasons using the 13-km Rapid Refresh model with atmosphere (50 levels), soil (9 levels), and snow (up to 2 layers if present) on the same horizontal grid. Improvements were evident for 2-m temperature for all times of day out to 6–12 h for both seasons but stronger in winter. Better temperature forecasts were also shown in the 1000–900-hPa layer corresponding roughly to the boundary layer. Significance Statement Accuracy of weather models depends on accurate initial conditions for soil temperature and moisture as well as for the atmosphere itself. This paper describes a moderately coupled data assimilation method that modifies soil conditions based on forecast error corrections indicated by atmospheric observations. This method has been tested for a month-long period in summer and winter and shown to consistently improve short-range forecasts of 2-m temperature and moisture. This coupled data assimilation method is used already in NOAA operational short-range models to improve its prediction skill for clouds, convective storms, and general weather conditions.

Comparison of the Potential Impact to the Prediction of Typhoons of Various Microwave Sounders Onboard a Geostationary Satellite

A microwave radiometer onboard a geostationary satellite can provide for the continuous atmospheric sounding of rapidly evolving convective events even in the presence of clouds, which has aroused great research interest in recent decades. To approach the problem of high-spatial resolution and large-size antennas, three promising geostationary microwave (GEO-MW) solutions—geostationary microwave radiometer (GMR) with a 5 m real aperture antenna, geostationary synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (GeoSTAR) with a Y-shaped synthetic aperture array, and geostationary interferometric microwave sounder (GIMS) with a rotating circular synthetic aperture array—have been proposed. To compare the potential impact of assimilating the three GEO-MW sounders to typhoon prediction, observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) with the simulated 50–60 GHz observing brightness temperature data were conducted using the mesoscale numerical model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and WRF Date Assimilation-Four dimensional variational (WRFDA-4Dvar) assimilation system for Typhoons Hagibis and Bualoi which occurred in 2019. The results show that the assimilation of the three GEO-MW instruments with 4 channels of data at 50–60 GHz could lead to general positive impacts in this study. Compared with the control experiment, for the two cases of Bualoi and Hagibis, GMR improves the average 72 h typhoon track forecast accuracy by 24% and 43%, GeoSTAR by 33% and 50%, and GIMS by 10% and 29%, respectively. Overall, the three GEO-MW instruments show considerable promise in atmospheric sounding and data assimilation. The difference among these positive impacts seems to depend on the observation error of the three potential instruments. GeoSTAR is slightly better than the other two GEO-MW sounders, which may be because it has the smallest observation error of the 4 assimilation channels. Generally, this study illustrates that the performance of these three GEO-MW sounders is potentially adequate to support assimilation into numerical weather prediction models for typhoon prediction.

An update on the 4D-LETKF data assimilation system for the whole neutral atmosphere

Abstract. The four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter (4D-LETKF) data assimilation system for the whole neutral atmosphere is updated to better represent disturbances with wave periods shorter than 1 d in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region. First, incremental analysis update (IAU) filtering is introduced to reduce the generation of spurious waves arising from the insertion of the analysis updates. The IAU is better than other filtering methods, and also is commonly used for middle atmospheric data assimilation. Second, the order of horizontal diffusion in the forecast model is changed to reproduce the more realistic tidal amplitudes that were observed by satellites. Third, the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) observations in the stratosphere and mesosphere also are assimilated. The performance of the resultant analyses is evaluated by comparing them with the mesospheric winds from meteor radars, which are not assimilated. The representation of assimilation products is greatly improved not only for the zonal mean field but also for short-period and/or horizontally small-scale disturbances.

An FSO-based Optimization Framework for Improved Observation Performance: Theoretical Formulation and Experiments with NAVDAS-AR/NAVGEM

Abstract The forecast sensitivity to observations (FSO) is embedded into a new optimization framework for improving the observation performance in atmospheric data assimilation. Key ingredients are introduced as follows: the innovation-weight parametrization of the analysis equation, the FSO-based evaluation of the forecast error gradient to parameters, a line search approach to optimization, and an efficient mechanism for step length specification. This methodology is tested in preliminary numerical experiments with the Naval Research Laboratory Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System-Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) and the U.S. Navy’s Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) at a T425L60 resolution. The experimental setup relies on a verification state produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to estimate the analysis and short-range forecast errors. Parameter tuning is implemented in a training stage valid for April 1-14 of 2018 and aimed at improving the use of assimilated observations in reducing the initial-condition errors. Assessment is carried out for April 15 – May 31 of 2018 to investigate the performance of the weighted assimilation system in reducing the errors in analyses and 24-hour model forecasts. In average, as compared with the control run and verified against the ECMWF analyses, the weighted approach provided 17.4% reduction in analysis errors and 3.1% reduction in 24-hour forecast errors, measured in a dry total energy norm. Observation impacts are calculated to assess the use of various observation types in reducing the analysis and forecast errors. In particular, assimilation of satellite wind data is significantly improved through the innovation-weighting procedure.

The Aerosol Module in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (v2.2 and v2.3): accounting for aerosol transmittance effects on the radiance observation operator

Abstract. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), a sensor-based radiative transfer model, has been used within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system for directly assimilating radiances from infrared and microwave sensors. We conducted numerical experiments to illustrate how including aerosol radiative effects in CRTM calculations changes the GSI analysis. Compared to the default aerosol-blind calculations, the aerosol influences reduced simulated brightness temperature (BT) in thermal window channels, particularly over dust-dominant regions. A case study is presented, which illustrates how failing to correct for aerosol transmittance effects leads to errors in meteorological analyses that assimilate radiances from satellite infrared sensors. In particular, the case study shows that assimilating aerosol-affected BTs significantly affects analyzed temperatures in the lower atmosphere across several regions of the globe. Consequently, a fully cycled aerosol-aware experiment improves 1–5 d forecasts of wind, temperature, and geopotential height in the tropical troposphere and Northern Hemisphere stratosphere. Whilst both GSI and CRTM are well documented with online user guides, tutorials, and code repositories, this article is intended to provide a joined-up documentation for aerosol absorption and scattering calculations in the CRTM and GSI. It also provides guidance for prospective users of the CRTM aerosol option and GSI aerosol-aware radiance assimilation. Scientific aspects of aerosol-affected BT in atmospheric data assimilation are briefly discussed.