Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies Research Articles

Equatorial Western–Central Pacific SST Responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation–ENSO Sequence

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, is well known to affect the extratropical climate via atmospheric teleconnections. Extratropical atmospheric variability may in turn influence the occurrence of ENSO events. The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), as the secondary dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, has been recognized as a potential precursor for ENSO development. This study demonstrates that the preexisting winter NPO signal is primarily excited by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial western–central Pacific. During ENSO years with a preceding winter NPO signal, which accounts for approximately 60% of ENSO events observed in 1979–2021, significant SST anomalies emerge in the equatorial western–central Pacific in the preceding autumn and winter. The concurrent presence of local convection anomalies can act as a catalyst for NPO-like atmospheric circulation anomalies. In contrast, during other ENSO years, significant SST anomalies are not observed in the equatorial western–central Pacific during the preceding winter, and correspondingly, the NPO signal is absent. Ensemble simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observed SST anomalies in the tropical western–central Pacific can well reproduce the interannual variability of observed NPO. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the observed NPO–ENSO relationship is that the preceding winter NPO is a companion to ENSO development, driven by the precursory SST signal in the equatorial western–central Pacific. Our results suggest that the lagged relationship between ENSO and the NPO involves a tropical–extratropical two-way coupling rather than a purely stochastic forcing of the extratropical atmosphere on ENSO.

Winter “warm Arctic-cold Eurasia” pattern and its statistical linkages to oceanic precursors during the era of satellite observations

AbstractA striking recurrent feature of winter climate variability is the “warm Arctic-cold Eurasia” (WACE) pattern of opposite sign anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) in the Barents Sea region and midlatitude Eurasia. Its origins and mechanisms are hotly debated, and its predictability remains unknown. This study investigates statistical relationships of the winter WACE dipole with concurrent anomalies of atmospheric circulation and oceanic precursors during the era of satellite observations. The results reveal a high potential for seasonal predictability of not only the WACE dipole but also several related indicators of winter climate variability, including the Arctic and Eurasian SAT anomalies. During subperiods of extreme covariability between the Arctic and Eurasian SATs around the early 1980s and late 2000s, most of the WACE variability is explained by ocean temperature and surface turbulent heat flux anomalies in the Barents Sea region during the preceding months. Anomalies in summer Atlantic water temperature (AWT) and autumnal sea surface temperature (SST) in this region explain about 70–80% of the variance of the following winter WACE variability during all events of strong Arctic-Eurasian SAT covariability. Analysis of SST variability in the Arctic-North Atlantic region suggests that the winter WACE link to the summer AWT anomalies reflects an atmospheric response to a large-scale surface reemergence of ocean temperature anomalies. However, this linkage had been robust only until the early 2000s. Since then, the winter WACE variability has been strongly related to autumnal SST anomalies in the Barents Sea region and the North Pacific.

On the Divergent Evolution of ENSO After the Coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023

AbstractCoastal El Niño is an extreme situation of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with sea surface temperature warming confined in the far‐eastern equatorial Pacific. Some coastal El Niños evolve into a basin scale El Niño, and some don't, implying a diversity in ENSO evolutions after a coastal El Niño event. In this study, the coastal El Niños in 2017 and 2023 are selected to examine their subsequent evolution. Both coastal El Niños developed after a La Niña, with the former followed by a La Niña and the latter by a basin‐scale El Niño. The cold (warm) subsurface temperatures in 2017 (2023) were key factors leading to the divergent ENSO evolution. Convection over the western tropical Pacific and the atmospheric circulation anomalies across the equatorial Pacific also contributed to the differences. Model predictions suggest that differences in ENSO evolution after a coastal El Niño are associated with differences in ENSO predictability.

Solar Influences on Winter Atmospheric Circulation Over the Ural, North Atlantic and North Pacific Regions: Pitchfork‐Like Relationships

AbstractLi's previous study found a one‐to‐two correspondence relationship between the total solar irradiance (TSI) and monthly anomalies of the Ural atmospheric circulation during winter months. This relationship roughly meets the so‐called supercritical pitchfork bifurcation model, hence termed a pitchfork‐like (PL) relationship. Here, we extend this study and provide more evidence to support previous findings. By analyzing data from 192 winter months and estimating the joint probability density function, we find that over the Ural, North Atlantic, and North Pacific regions, there are all PL relationships between the TSI and geopotential height anomalies at pressure levels no higher than 700 hPa. When the TSI gradually decreases and passes a critical threshold of 1360.9 W m−2, the preferred circulation patterns undergo a regime transition from one regime to two others. When TSI < 1360.9 W m−2, positive and negative geopotential height anomalies occur at nearly equal frequencies within the same TSI range. This quantitative relation is met in almost the whole troposphere in each region. We suggest that the occurrence of PL relationships may be associated with the interaction between the westerly flow and topographic barriers; The decrease in TSI can regulate this interaction by reducing the stability of background westerly flow over all three regions, via increasing the land‐ocean thermal contrast and altering the planetary wavenumber‐2 wave at the mid‐high latitudes. Our work highlights the same quantitative relation between the TSI and the monthly mean geopotential height anomalies of three regions in winter, which has important implications for seasonal climate prediction.

Rainfall variability and its teleconnection with atmospheric circulation anomalies over southern and southeastern region, Ethiopia

Rainfall variability and its teleconnection with atmospheric circulation anomalies over southern and southeastern region, Ethiopia

Interannual synchronization of the North American summer monsoon and the North Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis frequency

Variations of the North American summer monsoon (NASM) and North Atlantic tropical cyclone (NATC) activities strongly influence climate anomalies in North America, with serious potential risk to life and property. Despite the scientific importance of this topic, the possible linkage between the NASM and the NATC genesis frequency remains unexplored. Here, we aim to examine the relationship between interannual variations of the NASM intensity and the NATC genesis frequency based on observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Our results show a strong association between the NASM intensity and the NATC genesis frequency during the extended boreal summer, with a good synchronization between their interannual variations. In years with stronger (weaker) NASM intensity, the NATC genesis frequency tends to be higher (lower). The observed NASM–NATC synchronization may be explained by two pathways: tropical-ocean-driven pathway and monsoon-heating-driven pathway. In the tropical-ocean-driven pathway, the tropical Pacific and Atlantic interbasin sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies play a critical role in bridging the NASM and NATC, by modulating the cross-Central American wind. Simulations of the tropical Pacific–Atlantic interbasin SST anomalies are critical for CMIP6 models to capture the observed linkage between the NASM and the vertical wind shear over the NATC main development region (MDR). In the monsoon-heating-driven pathway, the heating source due to the rainfall anomalies associated with the NASM can trigger atmospheric circulation anomalies through the Gill-type response, thereby affecting the NATC by changing the vertical wind shear over the MDR. This study demonstrates a connection between interannual variations of the NASM and the NATC genesis frequency, results of which can be used to advance our understanding of the monsoon–TC relationship and increase research focus on the interannual NASM–NATC synchronization in climate prediction.

Spatiotemporal evolution patterns and underlying formation mechanisms of monsoon rainfall across eastern China: A complex network perspective

Quantifying the evolution patterns and forming causes of monsoon rainfall is essential for prediction and mitigation of resultant hydrometeorological hazards. This study proposed a complex network-based framework to investigate these aspects over eastern China throughout the monsoon season. Based on the extracted heavy precipitation events (HPEs) at each grid within the monsoon season and twenty segmented phases, event synchronization and complex networks were utilized to construct HPE synchronized networks and HPE delayed networks, respectively. The former were utilized to identify monsoon rainfall subregions over eastern China, and further investigate the evolution rules of monsoon rainfall and associated hazard risks across the monsoon season. The latter were employed to investigate the spatial propagation patterns of monsoon rainfall within eastern China and individual subregions during their respective rainy seasons. Furthermore, the driving mechanisms behind the spatial propagation of monsoon rainfall within various subregions were explored by diagnosing the typical spatial propagation periods of monsoon rainfall and relevant regional atmospheric circulation anomalies. Results show that there are ten monsoon rainfall subregions over eastern China. Across these subregions, the monsoon rainfall undergoes seven sequential stages, including three stationary periods, two abrupt northward jumps and one southward retreat. As phases progress, zones with high hazard risks migrate within South China (SC), Yangtze River Basin (YRB), and Liaohe River Basin (LRB) with area first increasing and then decreasing from mid-April to early August. Diverse spatial propagation patterns of monsoon rainfall within various subregions arise from variations in the surrounding atmospheric circulation systems, resulting in anomalous wind patterns and moisture distribution. These anomalies, in turn, foster favorable conditions for monsoon rainfall to propagate along anomalous water vapor transport pathways. These findings advance our understanding of monsoon systems and associated hazard risks, shedding new light on their predictability.

A comparison of the impacts of two consecutive double-peaked La Niña events on Antarctic sea ice in austral spring

Abstract Among 9 La Niña events since 1980, there are 7 double-peaked La Niña events which typically persist for two years and peak twice in the two consecutive boreal winters. In the study, the individual impacts of the first and second peak episodes of such La Niña on the Antarctic sea ice in austral spring (September to November) were compared. The results suggest a difference. The first episode induces a tripolar distribution of sea ice concentration (SIC) with negative anomaly in the Bellingshausen Sea sandwiched with positive anomalies in the Ross Sea and the northeastern Weddell Sea. The second causes a SIC reduction in most parts of the Southern Ocean except for the eastern Ross-western Amundsen Seas where an increase is observed. Mechanistically, the first episode forces one single Rossby wave train propagating southeastward, causing a strong cyclone anomaly over the eastern Ross-Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas along with a weak anticyclone over the Weddell Sea. In comparison, the second La Niña excites two branches of Rossby wave trains emanating from the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and the central equatorial Pacific, respectively, which induce three anomalous anticyclones and two anomalous cyclones over the Southern Ocean. These different atmospheric circulation anomalies shape their different sea ice distributions between the two La Niña episodes through both dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The modeling results from CAM5 verify these differences.

Interannual Variability of August Precipitation in China Associated With the Antarctic Sea Ice Anomaly

AbstractThrough observational analysis and atmospheric simulation experiments, the relationship between sea ice in the region of South Pole and August precipitation in China was determined. Results indicate that the leading mode of August precipitation in China is significantly correlated with July sea ice concentration (SIC) in South Pole, specifically in eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Typically, the SIC growth is followed by positive rainfall anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and Northeast China (NEC), while South China (SC) is under the control of negative rainfall anomalies. Precisely, owing to the temporal persistence of sea ice in the South Polar region from May to August, sea ice anomalies exert a strong influence on August atmospheric stability in EIO of Southern Hemisphere via regulating turbulent heat flux and air temperature anomalies. As SIC increases, the atmospheric circulation in horizontal exhibits the characteristics of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) positive phase, affecting the zonal wind anomalies. Subsequently, the anomalous circulation with a barotropic structure propagates to Australia and the East Asian via the strengthened vertical meridional cells and zonal winds. Moreover, numerical simulations confirm that due to the growth of South Polar sea ice in EIO, abnormal cyclone and anticyclone appear over North China and SC respectively, together with the moisture converging anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of YRB, and diverging anomalies in SC. Accordingly, these atmospheric circulation anomalies triggered by Antarctic sea ice conducive to a wet (dry) August in northern (southern) China.

European Summer Wet-Bulb Temperature: Spatiotemporal Variations and Potential Drivers

Abstract Heat stress is projected to intensify with global warming, causing significant socioeconomic impacts and threatening human health. Wet-bulb temperature (WBT), which combines temperature and humidity effects, is a useful indicator for assessing regional and global heat stress variability and trends. However, the variations of European WBT and their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Using observations and reanalysis datasets, we demonstrate a remarkable warming of summer WBT during the period 1958–2021 over Europe. Specifically, the European summer WBT has increased by over 1.0°C in the past 64 years. We find that the increase in European summer WBT is driven by both near-surface warming temperatures and increasing atmospheric moisture content. We identify four dominant modes of European summer WBT variability and investigate their linkage with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies. The first two leading modes of the European WBT variability exhibit prominent interdecadal to long-term variations, mainly driven by a circumglobal wave train and concurrent sea surface temperature variations. The last two leading modes of European WBT variability mainly show interannual variations, indicating a direct and rapid response to large-scale atmospheric dynamics and nearby sea surface temperature variations. Further analysis shows the role of global warming and changes in midlatitude circulations in the variations of summer WBT. Our findings can enhance the understanding of plausible drivers of heat stress in Europe and provide valuable insights for regional decision-makers and climate adaptation planning. Significance Statement Wet-bulb temperature, which takes into account the combined effect of temperature and humidity, is a good indicator for assessing heat stress. In the context of global warming, heat stress is anticipated to escalate, posing significant risks to human health and causing socioeconomic losses. However, variations in wet-bulb temperature and the associated physical mechanisms have received limited attention. This study aims to improve our understanding of the temporal and spatial variations and the potential driving mechanisms of summer wet-bulb temperature across Europe in recent decades. We have observed a noteworthy increase in summer wet-bulb temperature, indicating a regional intensification of heat stress, particularly within the last 10 years. We further investigate the connections between variations in summer wet-bulb temperature, large-scale atmospheric circulation, and sea surface temperature. Additionally, we explore their associations with global warming and changes in midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The outcomes of this study not only contribute to establishing a scientific basis for evaluating heat-related risks in Europe but also facilitate preparedness for future climate adaptation and mitigation at both regional and local scales.

Potential Predictability of Two-Year Droughts in the Missouri River Basin

Abstract Potential predictability of two-year droughts indicated by low runoff in consecutive April-September seasons in the Upper (UMRB) and Lower (LMRB) Missouri River Basin are examined with observed estimates and climate models. The majority of annual runoff is generated in April-September, which is also the main precipitation and evapotranspiration season. Physical features related to low April-September runoff in both UMRB and LMRB include a dry land surface state indicated by low soil moisture, low snowpack indicated by low snow water equivalent, and a wave train across the Pacific-North American region that can be generated internally by the atmosphere or forced by the La Niña phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. When present in March, these features increase the risk of low runoff in the following April-September warm seasons. Antecedent low soil moisture significantly increases low runoff risks in each of the following two April-September, as the dry land surfaces decrease runoff efficiency. Initial low snow water equivalent, especially in the Missouri River headwaters of Montana, generates less runoff in the subsequent warm season. La Niña increases the risk of low runoff during the warm seasons by suppressing precipitation via dynamical-induced atmospheric circulation anomalies. Model simulations that differ in their radiative forcing suggest that climate change increases the predictability of two-year droughts in the Missouri River Basin related to La Niña. The relative risk of low runoff in the second April-September following a La Niña event in March is greater in the presence of stronger radiative forcing.

Summer Russian Heat Waves Linked to Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in 2010 and 2016

Abstract This study investigates dominant features of the atmospheric circulation evolution associated with extreme heat waves (HWs) in Russia during the summers of 2010 and 2016, respectively, and their possible association with Arctic sea ice loss. Results show that a region of Russia (20°–70°E, 45°–65°N) experienced a lasting 44-day HW event from 4 July to 16 August 2010 and a 26-day HW event from 2 to 27 August 2016. The associated atmospheric circulation anomalies are characterized by the summer Arctic cold anomaly in the mid- to low troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Ural Mountains. Simulation experiments forced by summer Arctic sea ice anomalies reproduce the major characteristics of observational associations. Observations and numerical simulations indicate that summer Arctic sea ice anomaly is conducive to the formation of the summer Arctic cold anomaly, which is often accompanied by the enhanced baroclinicity in most of the Arctic troposphere and increased and decreased meridional temperature gradient in the high and midlatitudes, respectively. Such a configuration strengthens westerly winds over most of the Arctic and weakens zonal westerly over the southern Ural Mountains. This anomalous zonal wind pattern establishes the background conditions for the sustained positive geopotential height anomaly in the mid- to low troposphere that dynamically facilitates the prevalence of Russian HW events. Moreover, when compared with 2016, the weaker meridional potential vorticity gradient anomaly in the summer of 2010 prolonged the persistence of Ural blocking, which may lead to longer HW events in Russia.

European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years

Abstract. Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to the increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying mechanisms remain elusive, however. One potential link occurs through the ocean as the loss of sea ice and glacial ice leads to increased freshwater fluxes into the ocean. Thus, in this study, we examine the link between North Atlantic freshwater anomalies and European summer weather. Combining a comprehensive set of observational products, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies are associated with a sharper sea surface temperature front between the subpolar and the subtropical North Atlantic in winter, an increased atmospheric instability above the sea surface temperature front, and a large-scale atmospheric circulation that induces a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current, strengthening the sea surface temperature front. In the following summer, the lower-tropospheric winds are deflected northward along the enhanced sea surface temperature front and the European coastline, forming part of a large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly that is associated with warmer and drier weather over Europe. The identified statistical links are significant on timescales from years to decades and indicate an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance, with the exact regions and amplitudes of the warm and dry weather anomalies over Europe being sensitive to the location, strength, and extent of North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in the preceding winter.

Analysis and comparison of water vapor transport features and circulation anomalies during the super-strong Meiyu period of 2020 and 1998*

2020 and 1998 are the strongest Meiyu years in recent decades. The characteristics of the super-strong Meiyu precipitation and water vapor sources in 2020 and 1998 were compared, and the atmospheric circulation anomalies and the forcing factor SST were examined. (1) In 2020, the Meiyu duration, accumulated precipitation, and number of rainstorm days were greater than in 1998, and the highest since 1961. The Meiyu period in 2020 experienced 11 rainstorm processes. In 1998, a typical “second Meiyu” phenomenon occurred, and the area of heavy rainfall in 1998 was located further southward than that in 2020 (2) The contribution of the Bay of Bengal-South China Sea (BOB-SCS) to the total supply of water vapor in 2020 and 1998 was 43.0% and 42.0%, respectively, i.e., much higher than that of the climatological mean (25.5%). In 2020, the sources that provide most water vapor were the BOB, SCS, and central Pacific Ocean, while in 1998 were the Arabian Sea, BOB, and the western Pacific Ocean. (3) During the Meiyu period in 2020 and 1998, the position of atmospheric circulation pattern “two ridges and one trough” are different. Analysis of the vertical structure revealed that the specific humidity intensity above the area of heavy rainfall in 1998 was weaker than that in 2020, and the low-level convergence zone was further south and not as strong as in 2020. The positions of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) in 1998 were both further south than those in 2020, which resulted in the more southerly locations of the southwesterly jet stream and rain belt. It should be pointed out that, the important contributions of the SST anomalies in the equatorial central eastern Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean to the anomalous WNPAC in 1998 and 2020, respectively.

Connection of Summer Surface Temperature Anomalies between the East European Plain–West Siberian Plain and North America on the Interannual Time Scale

Abstract This study identifies a significantly positive relationship between summer surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over two remote regions in the Eurasian continent and North America during the period 1979–2021 on the interannual time scale. The former region includes the East European Plain and the West Siberian Plain, and the latter region includes central and eastern North America. The regionally averaged summer SAT anomalies show a correlation coefficient of 0.66 between these two regions, which is significant at the 99% confidence level. This intercontinental SAT relationship can be explained by a wavelike pattern of circulation anomalies, which is the leading mode of upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in summer. Further analysis suggests that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific and North Atlantic in the preceding spring, being coupled with the leading mode of atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Pacific–Atlantic sector, persist into summer and affect the SATs in the two remote regions, resulting in the intercontinental SAT connection. Significance Statement Summer surface air temperature (SAT) has profound effects on public health and agricultural production. Here we find a significantly positive relationship between interannual variations of summer SATs over two remote regions, one in the Eurasian continent and the other in North America. This intercontinental relationship in SATs can be explained as a result of atmosphere–ocean coupling over the Pacific and North Atlantic in the preceding spring. The result is likely to be a critical implication for the seasonal forecast of SAT variations over the two regions. In addition, the concurrence of higher or lower temperatures in these two regions may have impacts on global grain production, since these two regions include many major grain-producing areas in the world.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought events in 34 major global river basins during 1901–2021

Meteorological drought is a crucial driver of various types of droughts; thus, identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought at the basin scale has implications for ecological and water resource security. However, differences in drought characteristics between river basins have not been clearly elucidated. In this study, we identify and compare meteorological drought events in 34 major river basins worldwide using a three-dimensional drought-clustering algorithm based on the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index on a 12-month scale from 1901 to 2021. Despite synchronous increases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), with precipitation increasing by more than three times the PET, 47 % (16/34) of the basins showed a tendency towards drought in over half their basin areas. Drought events occurred frequently, with more than half identified as short-term droughts (lasting less than or equal to three months). Small basins had a larger drought impact area, with major drought events often originating from the basin boundaries and migrating towards the basin centre. Meteorological droughts were driven by changes in sea surface temperature (SST), especially the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or other climate indices. Anomalies in SST and atmospheric circulation caused by ENSO events may have led to altered climate patterns in different basins, resulting in drought events. These results provide important insights into the characteristics and mechanisms of meteorological droughts in different river basins worldwide.

Interdecadal Change in the Covariability of the Tibetan Plateau and Indian Summer Precipitation and Associated Circulation Anomalies

This study investigates the interdecadal change in the covariability between the Tibetan Plateau (TP) east–west dipole precipitation and Indian precipitation during summer and primarily explores the modulation of atmospheric circulation anomalies on the covariability. The results reveal that the western TP precipitation (WTPP), eastern TP precipitation (ETPP), and northwestern Indian precipitation (NWIP) have covariability, with an in-phase variation between the WTPP and NWIP and an out-of-phase variation between the WTPP and ETPP. Moreover, this covariability was unclear during 1981–2004 and became significant during 2005–2019, showing a clear interdecadal change. During 2005–2019, a thick geopotential height anomaly, which tilted slightly northward, governed the TP, forming upper- and lower-level coupled circulation anomalies (i.e., anomalous upper-level westerlies over the TP and lower-level southeasterlies and northeasterlies around the southern flank of the TP). As such, the upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies synergistically modulate the summer WTPP, ETPP, and NWIP, causing the covariability of summer precipitation over the TP and India during 2005–2019. The upper- or lower-level circulation anomalies cannot independently result in significant precipitation covariability. During 1981–2004, the upper- and lower-level circulation anomalies were not strongly coupled, which caused precipitation non-covariability. The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and tropical Atlantic (TA) may synergistically modulate the upper- and lower-level coupled circulation anomalies, contributing to the covariability of the WTPP, ETPP, and NWIP during 2005–2019. The modulation of the WNP and TA SSTs on the coupled circulation anomalies was weaker during 1981–2004, which was therefore not conducive to this precipitation covariability. This study may provide valuable insights into the characteristics and mechanisms of spatiotemporal variation in summer precipitation over the TP and its adjacent regions, thus offering scientific support for local water resource management, ecological environment protection, and social and economic development.

North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices: Links with summer and winter temperature and precipitation in north‐west Europe, including persistence and variability

AbstractVariability in seasonal weather in north‐west Europe is substantially determined by jet stream variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been well studied as a key representation of this jet stream variability, but other circulation indices are also important. Here the first three principal component empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH), which broadly correspond to the NAO, the East Atlantic pattern (EA) and Scandinavian pattern (SCA), as well as jet speed and latitude, are correlated with temperature and precipitation anomalies over Europe with a focus on north‐west Europe, as well as measures of persistence and variability. In high summer (July and August), all three of the principal EOFs are significantly correlated with extreme temperatures in large areas of northern Europe. In winter, for much of north‐west Europe, both temperatures and precipitation are positively correlated with the jet speed, and precipitation is negatively correlated with EOF3. There is some non‐stationarity in some of the relationships, notably between winter precipitation and EOF1, and between July/August precipitation and EOF2. In addition to single variate correlations, multiple correlation coefficients are also used to determine areas of significant correlation when combining two or three of the circulation indices. The multiple correlation analyses show that combining the three EOFs produces significant correlations with temperature and precipitation over much of Europe. These analyses provide scope for using seasonal forecasts to predict likely temperature and precipitation anomalies based on predicting the atmospheric circulation anomalies and downscaling them. Improved seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation, including persistence and variability, will be useful to a number of users, such as agrifood, transport, energy supply and insurance.

Shift of soil moisture-temperature coupling exacerbated 2022 compound hot-dry event in eastern China

Compound hot-dry events (CHDEs) are among the deadliest climate hazards and are occurring with increasing frequency under global warming. The Yangtze River Basin in China experienced a record-breaking CHDE in the summer of 2022, causing severe damage to human societies and ecosystems. Recent studies have emphasized the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies in driving this event. However, the contribution of land–atmosphere feedback to the development of this event remains unclear. Here, we investigated the impacts of soil moisture-temperature coupling on the development of this concurrent heatwave and drought. We showed that large amounts of surface net radiation were partitioned to sensible heat instead of latent heat as the soil moisture-temperature coupling pattern shifted from energy-limited to water-limited under low soil moisture conditions, forming positive land–atmosphere feedback and leading to unprecedented hot extremes in August. The spatial heterogeneity of hot extremes was also largely modulated by the land–atmosphere coupling strength. Furthermore, enhanced land–atmosphere feedback has played an important role in intensifying CHDEs in this traditional humid region. This study improves the understanding of the development of CHDEs from three aspects, including timing, intensity, and spatial distribution, and enables more effective early warning of CHDEs.

Mutating ENSO Impact on Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones Under Global Warming

AbstractA prominent feature of the western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) anomaly in response to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a distinct west‐east dipole structure in the present‐day (PD) climate. Here, large ensemble high‐resolution simulations show that the current dipole may transform into a monopole under global warming (GW). In the PD climate, the ENSO‐induced dipole effect on TCGF is mainly observed in late autumn. However, GW accelerates this effect into the summer by amplifying atmospheric circulation anomalies. Consequently, this leads to a significant increase in the coastal TCGF during the development phase of El Niño under GW. Meanwhile, it weakens the anomalous anticyclonic circulation during late autumn, leading to an increase in coastal TCGF during the mature phase of El Niño, and vice versa. Therefore, the combined effect suggests a potential trend toward spatial homogenization during ENSO phases under GW.