Atlantic Arctic Research Articles

Food chain without giants: modelling the trophic impact of bowhead whaling on little auk populations in the Atlantic Arctic.

In the Atlantic Arctic, bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) were nearly exterminated by European whalers between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. The collapse of the East Greenland-Svalbard-Barents Sea population, from an estimated 50 000 to a few hundred individuals, drastically reduced predation on mesozooplankton. Here, we tested the hypothesis that this event strongly favoured the demography of the little auk (Alle alle), a zooplanktivorous feeder competitor of bowhead whales and the most abundant seabird in the Arctic. To estimate the effect of bowhead whaling on little auk abundance, we modelled the trophic niche overlap between the two species using deterministic simulations of mesozooplankton spatial distribution. We estimated that bowhead whaling could have led to a 70% increase in northeast Atlantic Arctic little auk populations, from 2.8 to 4.8 million breeding pairs. While corresponding to a major population increase, this is far less than predicted by previous studies. Our study illustrates how a trophic shift can result from the near extirpation of a marine megafauna species, and the methodological framework we developed opens up new opportunities for marine trophic modelling.

A 12-year climate record of wintertime wave-affected marginal ice zones in the Atlantic Arctic based on CryoSat-2

A 12-year climate record of wintertime wave-affected marginal ice zones in the Atlantic Arctic based on CryoSat-2

Seabirds reveal mercury distribution across the North Atlantic

Mercury (Hg) is a heterogeneously distributed toxicant affecting wildlife and human health. Yet, the spatial distribution of Hg remains poorly documented, especially in food webs, even though this knowledge is essential to assess large-scale risk of toxicity for the biota and human populations. Here, we used seabirds to assess, at an unprecedented population and geographic magnitude and high resolution, the spatial distribution of Hg in North Atlantic marine food webs. To this end, we combined tracking data of 837 seabirds from seven different species and 27 breeding colonies located across the North Atlantic and Atlantic Arctic together with Hg analyses in feathers representing individual seabird contamination based on their winter distribution. Our results highlight an east-west gradient in Hg concentrations with hot spots around southern Greenland and the east coast of Canada and a cold spot in the Barents and Kara Seas. We hypothesize that those gradients are influenced by eastern (Norwegian Atlantic Current and West Spitsbergen Current) and western (East Greenland Current) oceanic currents and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. By tracking spatial Hg contamination in marine ecosystems and through the identification of areas at risk of Hg toxicity, this study provides essential knowledge for international decisions about where the regulation of pollutants should be prioritized.

Cyclone Impacts on Sea Ice Concentration in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean: Annual Cycle and Recent Changes

AbstractWe quantify sea ice concentration (SIC) changes related to synoptic cyclones separately for each month of the year in the Greenland, Barents and Kara Seas for 1979–2018. We find that these SIC changes can be statistically significant throughout the year. However, their strength varies from region to region and month to month, and their sign strongly depends on the considered time scale (before/during vs. after cyclone passages). Our results show that the annual cycle of cyclone impacts on SIC is related to varying cyclone intensity and traversed sea ice conditions. We further show that significant changes in these cyclone impacts have manifested in the last 40 years, with the strongest changes occurring in October and November. For these months, SIC decreases before/during cyclones have more than doubled in magnitude in the Barents and Kara Seas, while SIC increases following cyclones have weakened (intensified) in the Barents Sea (Kara Sea).

Warm air intrusions reaching the MOSAiC expedition in April 2020—The YOPP targeted observing period (TOP)

In the spring period of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, an initiative was in place to increase the radiosounding frequency during warm air intrusions in the Atlantic Arctic sector. Two episodes with increased surface temperatures were captured during April 12–22, 2020, during a targeted observing period (TOP). The large-scale circulation efficiently guided the pulses of warm air into the Arctic and the observed surface temperature increased from −30°C to near melting conditions marking the transition to spring, as the temperatures did not return to values below −20°C. Back-trajectory analysis identifies 3 pathways for the transport. For the first temperature maximum, the circulation guided the airmass over the Atlantic to the northern Norwegian coast and then to the MOSAiC site. The second pathway was from the south, and it passed over the Greenland ice sheet and arrived at the observational site as a warm but dry airmass due to precipitation on the windward side. The third pathway was along the Greenland coast and the arriving airmass was both warm and moist. The back trajectories originating from pressure levels between 700 and 900 hPa line up vertically, which is somewhat surprising in this dynamically active environment. The processes acting along the trajectory originating from 800 hPa at the MOSAIC site are analyzed. Vertical profiles and surface energy exchange are presented to depict the airmass transformation based on ERA5 reanalysis fields. The TOP could be used for model evaluation and Lagrangian model studies to improve the representation of the small-scale physical processes that are important for airmass transformation. A comparison between MOSAiC observations and ERA5 reanalysis demonstrates challenges in the representation of small-scale processes, such as turbulence and the contributions to various terms of the surface energy budget, that are often misrepresented in numerical weather prediction and climate models.

Asymmetric changes in temperature in the Arctic during the Holocene based on a transient run with the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

Abstract. The Arctic temperature changes are closely linked to midlatitude weather variability and extreme events, which has attracted much attention in recent decades. Syntheses of proxy data from poleward of 60∘ N indicate that there was asymmetric cooling of −1.54 and −0.61 ∘C for the Atlantic Arctic and the Pacific Arctic during the Holocene, respectively. We also present a similar consistent cooling pattern from an accelerated transient Holocene climate simulation based on the Community Earth System Model. Our results indicate that the asymmetric Holocene Arctic cooling trend is dominated by the winter temperature variability, with −0.67 ∘C cooling for the Atlantic Arctic and 0.09 ∘C warming for the Pacific Arctic, which is particularly pronounced at the proxy sites. Our findings indicate that sea ice in the North Atlantic expanded significantly during the late Holocene, while a sea ice retreat is seen in the North Pacific, amplifying the cooling in the Atlantic Arctic by the sea ice feedback. The positive Arctic dipole pattern, which promotes warm southerly winds to the North Pacific, offsets parts of the cooling trend in the Pacific Arctic. The Arctic dipole pattern also causes sea ice expansion in the North Atlantic, further amplifying the cooling asymmetry. We found that the temperature asymmetry is more pronounced in a simulation driven only by orbital forcing. The accelerated simulations lead to a partial delay in the feedback of climate processes. Therefore, we confirm the occurrence of the asymmetry of the Arctic temperature changes in un-accelerated simulations using ECBilt-CLIO, IPSL, and in TraCE-21k.

Pan-Arctic marine biodiversity and species co-occurrence patterns under recent climate

The Arctic region is experiencing drastic climatic changes bringing about potential ecological shifts. Here, we explored marine biodiversity and potential species associations across eight Arctic marine areas between 2000 and 2019. We compiled species occurrences for a subset of 69 marine taxa (i.e., 26 apex predators and 43 mesopredators) and environmental factors to predict taxon-specific distributions using a multi-model ensemble approach. Arctic-wide temporal trends of species richness increased in the last 20 years and highlighted potential emerging areas of species accrual due to climate-driven species redistribution. Further, regional species associations were dominated by positive co-occurrences among species pairs with high frequencies in the Pacific and Atlantic Arctic areas. Comparative analyses of species richness, community composition, and co-occurrence between high and low summer sea ice concentrations revealed contrasting impacts of and detected areas vulnerable to sea ice changes. In particular, low (high) summer sea ice generally resulted in species gains (loss) in the inflow and loss (gains) in the outflow shelves, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition and therefore potential species associations. Overall, the recent changes in biodiversity and species co-occurrences in the Arctic were driven by pervasive poleward range shifts, especially for wide-ranging apex predators. Our findings highlight the varying regional impacts of warming and sea ice loss on Arctic marine communities and provide important insights into the vulnerability of Arctic marine areas to climate change.

Bearded seals in the Atlantic Arctic: review of post 2010 knowledge available for informing stock assessments

The last extensive (pan-Arctic) review on knowledge available on the bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus) was conducted by Cameron et al. in 2010. As bearded seals are hunted off Svalbard and Greenland but no stock assessments are available, NAMMCO requested a status review, and if possible, an assessment of the species in its area. This literature review attempts to summarise the knowledge that has become available post 2010, with a focus on the Atlantic Arctic. A large amount of information has become available on the behaviour of the bearded seal, with hearing, vocalisation, haul-out behaviour and movement patterns (through satelitte tagging), and their phenology, being well studied. A database of baseline blood parameters is slowly being built but is still limited. New data on distribution has emerged from PAM studies and non-targeted surveys. Abundance estimates are missing for Svalbard, but partial estimates have become available for the North Water Polynya in 2009 and 2014. Additionally, observations of bearded seals from aerial line-transect surveys are available for several areas of Greenland but have not been analysed. More information has become available on the impact of anthropogenic stressors, such as climate change and other related environmental changes, although demographic impacts of changes are missing. Catch data exists for both Svalbard and Greenland, but for the latter the data needs to be thoroughly validated. In summary, information on stock structure as well as local and global abundance estimates, which are both important to assess the sustainability of current catches, are still missing. However other lines of evidence can inform the delineation of management areas and the results of a pan-arctic genetic study should become available shortly. There is survey data available from Greenland that could be used to generate local abundance estimates, the analysis of which should be prioritised.

Carbon Air–Sea Flux in the Arctic Ocean from CALIPSO from 2007 to 2020

Quantified research on the Arctic Ocean carbon system is poorly understood, limited by the scarce available data. Measuring the associated phytoplankton responses to air–sea CO2 fluxes is challenging using traditional satellite passive ocean color measurements due to low solar elevation angles. We constructed a feedforward neural network light detection and ranging (LiDAR; FNN-LID) method to assess the Arctic diurnal partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and formed a dataset of long-time-series variations in diurnal air–sea CO2 fluxes from 2001 to 2020; this study represents the first time spaceborne LiDAR data were employed in research on the Arctic air–sea carbon cycle, thus providing enlarged data coverage and diurnal pCO2 variations. Although some models replace Arctic winter Chl-a with the climatological average or interpolated Chl-a values, applying these statistical Chl-a values results in potential errors in the gap-filled wintertime pCO2 maps. The CALIPSO measurements obtained through active LiDAR sensing are not limited by solar radiation and can thus provide ‘fill-in’ data in the late autumn to early spring seasons, when ocean color sensors cannot record data; thus, we constructed the first complete record of polar pCO2. We obtained Arctic FFN-LID-fitted in situ measurements with an overall mean R2 of 0.75 and an average RMSE of 24.59 µatm and filled the wintertime observational gaps, thereby indicating that surface water pCO2 is higher in winter than in summer. The Arctic Ocean net CO2 sink has seasonal sources from some continental shelves. The growth rate of Arctic seawater pCO2 is becoming larger and more remarkable in sectors with significant sea ice retreat. The combination of sea surface partial pressure and wind speed impacts the diurnal carbon air–sea flux variability, which results in important differences between the Pacific and Atlantic Arctic Ocean. Our results show that the diurnal carbon sink is larger than the nocturnal carbon sink in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean, while the diurnal carbon sink is smaller than the nocturnal carbon sink in the Pacific Arctic Ocean.

Thermodynamical and Dynamical Impacts of an Intense Cyclone on Arctic Sea Ice

AbstractThis study investigates the thermodynamical and dynamical influences of the intense cyclone in the Arctic Ocean in August 2012 on the synoptic‐scale sea ice evolution, using the Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System (ArcIOPS). As it is hard to fully isolate sea ice loss owing to extreme cyclone from that owing to background atmospheric state in most previous studies on this topic, this study introduces a newly developed algorithm to remove the cyclone component in atmospheric forcing, and conducts sea ice and heat budget analyses in two simulations driven by atmospheric forcing with and without the cyclone. Strong impact of the intense cyclone on sea ice locates on the east side of the cyclone's path, that is, Pacific Arctic for this case. The cyclone affects sea ice in two ways. First, cyclone‐induced enhancement in ice‐ocean interaction leads to increased sea ice basal melt in the Pacific Arctic and part of the Atlantic Arctic, which induces strong sea ice area and volume loss when the cyclone's intensity peaks. Second, as the cyclone strengthens, the increases in air temperature, humidity and wind speed accelerate turbulent heat exchange at the air‐ocean and air‐ice interfaces, leading to enhanced local sea ice surface melt in the Chukchi Sea and northern Beaufort Sea. The cyclone‐induced strong winds stir sea ice leading to enhanced gradients in sea ice velocity field and thus increased sea ice deformation, which further induces strong sea ice area loss. This study also demonstrates a precise atmospheric forcing field is essential for sea ice modeling.

Wind-driven ambient noise in seasonally ice-covered waters north of the Svalbard Archipelago

This paper presents analysis of a one-year (2018–2019) recording of ambient noise (40–2000 Hz) at a seasonally ice-covered location on the continental slope between the Svalbard archipelago and the Nansen Basin, northeast Atlantic Arctic. Time series of ambient noise show highest correlations with ice concentration and wind speed. A log-wind speed regression model is fitted to spectral noise data for three categories of ice concentration. Wind-speed dependence decreases with increasing ice concentration and increases with frequency, except at high ice concentration. Periodicity in noise during the ice-covered season is related to the M2 and M4 tidal current constituents.

Skull ecomorphological variation of narwhals (Monodon monoceros, Linnaeus 1758) and belugas (Delphinapterus leucas, Pallas 1776) reveals phenotype of their hybrids.

Narwhals and belugas are toothed whales belonging to the Monodontidae. Belugas have a circumpolar Arctic and sub-Artic distribution while narwhals are restricted to the Atlantic Arctic. Their geographical ranges overlap during winter migrations in the Baffin Bay area (Canada/West Greenland) and successful interbreeding may occur. Here, we employed geometric morphometrics on museum specimens to explore the cranium and mandible morphology of a known hybrid (NHMD MCE 1356) and the cranium morphology of a putative hybrid (NHMD 1963.44.1.4) relative to skull morphological variation in the parental species. Specifically, we used 3D models of skulls from 69 belugas, 86 narwhals, and the two known/putative hybrids and 2D left hemi-mandibles from 20 belugas, 64 narwhals and the known hybrid. Skull shape analyses allowed clear discrimination between species. Narwhals are characterised by a relatively short rostrum and wide neurocranium while belugas show a more elongated and narrower cranium. Sexual size dimorphism was detected in narwhals, with males larger than females, but no sexual shape dimorphism was detected in either species (excluding presence/absence of tusks in narwhals). Morphological skull variation was also dependent on different allometric slopes between species and sexes in narwhals. Our analyses showed that the cranium of the known hybrid was phenotypically close to belugas but its 2D hemi-mandible had a narwhal shape and size morphology. Both cranium and mandible were strongly correlated, with the pattern of covariation being similar to belugas. The putative hybrid was a pure male narwhal with extruded teeth. Comparison of genomic DNA supported this result, and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope values suggested that the putative hybrid had a more benthic foraging strategy compared to narwhals. This work demonstrates that although the known hybrid could be discriminated from narwhals and belugas, detection of its affinities with these parental species was dependent on the part of the skull analysed.

Estimating spatial distributions of design air temperatures for ships and offshore structures in the Arctic Ocean

To provide some design references for ships and offshore structures to operate in the Arctic waters, we assessed the spatial distributions of design air temperatures (DATs) in the Arctic Ocean using a 40-year MERRA-2 air temperature reanalysis data (1981–2020). The DATs studied included the design temperature (tD), polar service temperature (PST), lowest anticipated service temperature (LAST), and record lowest temperature (RLT). Higher DATs were observed in the Atlantic Arctic sector than Pacific Arctic sector. The lowest DATs were mainly in the Central Arctic Ocean near Canada. Moreover, the PST was generally lower than the RLT in the summer months. The lowest yearly (summer) tD for the Northeast Passage, the Transpolar Sea Route, and the Northwest Passage were −34.2 °C (−8.7 °C), −33.4 °C (−16.2 °C), and −32.0 °C (−13.2 °C). They are used to determine the steel grade requirements for ships. Not all regions in the Arctic Ocean had a rising trend in the yearly extreme low temperature under Arctic warming, especially in some nearshore areas. Furthermore, a strategy was provided for LAST uncertainties caused by climate change. These results and treatments provided references for future polar engineering designs.

Wind- and tidal driven ambient noise in seasonally ice-covered waters north of the Svalbard archipelago.

This paper presents analysis of a 1-year (2018-2019) recording of ambient noise (40-2000 Hz) at a seasonally ice-covered location on the continental slope between the Svalbard archipelago and the Nansen Basin, northeast Atlantic Arctic. Time series of ambient noise show highest correlations with ice concentration and wind speed. A log-wind speed regression model is fitted to spectral noise data for three categories of ice concentration. Wind-speed dependence decreases with increasing ice concentration and increases with frequency, except at high ice concentration. Periodicity in noise during the ice-covered season is related to the M2 and M4 tidal current constituents.

Ocean acidification state variability of the Atlantic Arctic Ocean around northern Svalbard

The Svalbard shelf and Atlantic Arctic Ocean are a transition zone between northward flowing Atlantic Water and ice-covered waters of the Arctic. Effects of regional ocean warming, sea ice loss and greater influence of Atlantic Water or “Atlantification” on the state of ocean acidification, i.e. calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation (Ω) are yet to be fully understood. Anomalies in surface layer Ω for the climatically-vulnerable CaCO3 mineral aragonite (ΔΩ) were determined by considering the variability in Ωaragonite during late summer each year from 2014 to 2017 relative to the four-year average. Greatest sea ice extent and more Arctic-like conditions in 2014 resulted in ΔΩ anomalies of −0.05 to −0.01 (up to 45% of total ΔΩ) as a result of lower primary production. Conversely, greater Atlantic Water influence in 2015 supplied the ice-free surface layer with nitrate, which prolonged primary production to drive ΔΩ anomalies of 0.01 to 0.06 (up to 45% of total ΔΩ) in more Atlantic-like conditions. Additionally, dissolution of CaCO3 increased carbonate ion concentrations giving ΔΩ anomalies up to 0.06 (up to 52% of total ΔΩ). These processes enhanced surface water Ω, which ranged between 2.01 and 2.65 across the region. Recent sea ice retreat in 2016 and 2017 (rate of decrease in ice cover of ∼4% in 30 days) created transitional Atlantic-Arctic conditions, where surface water Ω varied between 1.87 and 2.29 driven by ΔΩ anomalies of −0.10 to 0.01 due to meltwater inputs and influence of Arctic waters. Anomalies as low as −0.12 from reduced CaCO3 dissolution in 2016 further supressed Ω. Wind-driven mixing in 2017 entrained Atlantic Water with low Ω into the surface layer to drive large ΔΩ anomalies of −0.15 (up to 58% of ΔΩ). Sea-ice meltwater provided a minor source of carbonate ions, slightly counteracting dilution effects. Ice-free surface waters were substantial sinks for atmospheric CO2, where uptake of 20.5 mmol m−2 day−1 lowered surface water Ω. “Atlantification” could exacerbate or alleviate acidification of the Arctic Ocean, being highly dependent on the numerous factors examined here that are intricately linked to the sea ice-ocean system variability.

Interannual and decadal variability of Arctic summer sea ice associated with atmospheric teleconnection patterns during 1850-2017

AbstractThe interannual and decadal variability of summer Arctic sea ice is analyzed, using the longest reconstruction (1850-2017) of Arctic sea ice extent available, and its relationship with the dominant internal variabilities of the climate system is further investigated quantitatively. The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of summer Arctic sea ice variability captures an in-phase fluctuation over the Arctic Basin. The second mode characterizes a sea ice dipolar pattern with out-of-phase variability between the Pacific Arctic and the Atlantic Arctic. Summer sea ice variability is impacted by the major internal climate patterns: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Dipole Anomaly (DA), with descending order of importance based on the multiple regression analyses. The internal climate variability of the five teleconnection patterns accounts for up to 46% of the total variance in sea ice mode 1 (thermodynamical effect), and up to 30% of the total variance in mode 2 (dynamical effect). Furthermore, the variability of sea ice mode 1 decreased from 46% during 1953-2017 to 28% during 1979-2017, while the variability of mode 2 increased from 11% during 1953-2017 to 30% during 1979-2017. The increasingly greater reduction of Arctic summer sea ice during the recent four decades was enhanced with the positive ice/ocean albedo feedback loop being accelerated by the Arctic amplification, contributed in part by the atmospheric thermodynamical forcing from -AO, +NAO, +DA, +AMO, and –PDO and by the dynamical transpolar sea ice advection and outflow driven by +DA- and +AMO-derived strong anomalous meridional winds. Further analysis, using multiple large ensembles of climate simulations and single-forcing ensembles, indicates that the mode 1 of summer sea ice, dominated by the multidecadal oscillation, is partially a forced response to anthropogenic warming.

Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3

Abstract. A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5–6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7–9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impact of SIC initialization on ocean–atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2–9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal predictability may thus shift from sea ice volume to ocean-driven processes.

Ancient refractory asthenosphere revealed by mantle re-melting at the Arctic Mid Atlantic Ridge

The upper mantle is a heterogeneous mixture of refractory and recycled crustal domains. The recycled portions, more fertile and thus preferentially melted, dominate the composition of the basalts erupted on the surface, whereas the imprint of melting of the refractory counterparts is more difficult to discern from the basalt chemistry. Contrasting radiogenic isotopic signatures of mid-ocean ridge basalts and oceanic mantle, however, show that Hf isotope ratios may provide hints for melting of refractory source materials despite ubiquitous magma mixing during ascent and stalling in the crust. This property may allow identifying contributions from depleted mantle materials unseen in other isotope systematics in basalts. Here, we show that basalts from Mohns and Knipovich ridges, two >500-km long oblique super-segments in the Arctic Atlantic, have distinctly high Hf isotope ratios, not mirrored by comparatively high Nd and low Sr and Pb isotope ratios. These compositions can be explained if a highly depleted asthenospheric mantle melts beneath this section of the Arctic Mid Atlantic Ridge. We argue that this depleted source consists of high proportions of ancient (>1 Ga), ultra-depleted mantle, previously drained of enriched components before being re-melted in its current location following a recent ridge-jump, allowing the identification of ultra-depleted mantle components in the arctic subridge mantle.

Spatial variation in vital rates and population growth of thick-billed murres in the Atlantic Arctic

Understanding spatiotemporal variation in vital rates and population growth rates is a central aim of population ecology, and is critical to conservation of migratory species where different populations may spend the non-breeding season in sometimes widely separated areas. However, estimating those parameters and identifying the underlying drivers of variation for species migrating to remote areas is challenging. The thick-billed murre Uria lomvia is a colonial seabird with a pan-Arctic distribution. Previous studies have documented large-scale spatial variation in population growth in the species’ Atlantic range, with eastern populations declining and western populations being stable, and suggested that this variation was linked to conditions in the wintering areas. We analyse variation in breeding success and adult survival from colonies throughout the Atlantic range, construct region-specific stochastic population models, and compare model predictions to observed colony growth rates. Breeding success was uniformly high in Greenland and Iceland, lower and more variable in Spitsbergen, Bjørnøya and Hudson Bay, and low at Jan Mayen. Adult survival was average or high in all colonies during the 2010s. Observed colony growth rates were lower than modelled growth rates for most populations. This suggests that pre-breeding survival or breeding propensity must have been lower than assumed in many of these populations. Low pre-breeding survival could be linked to poor feeding conditions in fall and winter, possibly influenced by large-scale oceanographic variation. Our results support the idea that seabird populations not subject to breeder mortality due to anthropogenic causes are regulated mainly through variation in pre-breeding survival.

Arctic chironomids of the northwest North Atlantic reflect environmental and biogeographic gradients

AbstractAimWhile we understand broad climate drivers of insect distributions throughout the Arctic, less is known about the role of spatial processes in determining these relationships. As such, there is a need to understand how spatial controls may influence our interpretations of chironomid environment relationships. Here, we evaluated whether the distribution of chironomids followed spatial gradients, or were primarily controlled by environmental factors.LocationEastern Canadian Arctic, Greenland, Iceland.TaxonNon‐biting midges (Chironomidae).MethodsWe examined chironomid assemblages from 239 lakes in the western North Atlantic Arctic region (specifically from the Arctic Archipelago of Canada, two parts of west Greenland (the southwest and central west) and northwest Iceland). We used a combination of unconstrained ordination (Self Organizing Maps); a simple method with only one data matrix (community data), and constrained ordination (Redundancy Analysis); a canonical ordination with two datasets where we extracted structure of community related to environmental data. These methods allowed us to model chironomid assemblages across a large bioregional dimension and identify specific differences between regions that were defined by common taxa represented across all regions in high frequencies, as well as rare taxa distinctive to each region found in low frequencies. We then evaluated the relative importance of spatial processes versus local environmental factors.ResultsWe find that environmental controls explained the largest amount of variation in chironomid assemblages within each region, and that spatial controls are only significant when crossing between regions. Broad‐scale biogeographic effects on chironomid distributions are reflected by the distinct differences among chironomid assemblages of Iceland, central‐west Greenland, and eastern Canada, defined by the presence of certain common and low‐frequency, rare taxa for each region. Environmental gradients, especially temperature, defined species distributions within each region, whereas spatial processes combine with environmental gradients in determining what mix of species characterizes each broad and geographically distinct island region in our study.Main conclusionsWhile biogeographic context is important for defining interpretations of environmental controls on species distributions, the primary control on distributions within regions is environmental. These influences are fundamentally important for reconstructing past environmental change and better understanding historical distributions of these insect indicators.