Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through Research Articles

An Empirical Study on Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Sectorial Inflation of Pakistan

This study empirically examined the exchange rate pass through (ERPT) in sectoral inflation of Pakistan for the period 2007M6 to M62018 by applying the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model. The study has used consistent monthly data with 2007-08 base year. The empirical results showed that due to 1 percentage point increase in depreciation of Pak rupee against US dollar, monthly transport inflation increased by 0.90 percentage points, monthly restaurant inflation increased by 0.78 percentage points, monthly food inflation increased by 0.27 percentage points and monthly housing inflation increased by 0.32 percentage points in the long run. It means that exchange rate has positive and significant effect on monthly transport inflation, monthly restaurant inflation, monthly food inflation and monthly housing inflation. All required diagnostic tests have been performed to verify that there is no heteroscedasticity, no autocorrelation, stability of model, and normality of estimated residuals. The study concluded that ERPT may be estimated for inflation in sub-indices of CPI as a regular practice by monetary authorities to rationalize asymmetric effects of depreciation on different sectors of the economy

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through in India: A Non-linear ARDL Approach

This study makes an attempt to examine the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in India from 1993M4 to 2021M3. In the empirical literature, the relationship between the exchange rate and the price was found to be linear. However, in emerging economies recently the asymmetric relationship between these variables is noticed: the effect of appreciation on price is found to be negligible while the effect of depreciation is found to be significant. To study this behaviour, we have used non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model by employing five variables (viz., exchange rate, consumer price, output gap, money supply and oil prices). The structural break techniques are used to examine the differential effects of the pass-through. It found that exchange rate shocks do not lead to significant changes in consumer prices in the long run. In terms of policy, this means that the ERPT has insignificant consequences for monetary policy, and depreciation might pose a little threat to price stability. It is also established that oil price shocks are not one of the major determinants of inflation in the country and they do not pose serious challenges to price stability. Economic growth and monetary expansion also do not seem to pose any risks to price stability in the long run. JEL Classification: E31, E37, E52, F31

Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Egypt

Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Egypt

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in Ghana: Evidence from EMD-NARDL Approach

This paper analyses the US dollar exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ghana from January 1990 to January 2020 using the empirical mode decomposition-based nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model (EMD-NARDL). This model eliminates the noise component of the underlying data and captures the short- and long-run nonlinearities. We find evidence of cointegration between denoised series of consumer prices and exchange rate and asymmetric pass-through in both the short- and long-run. Specifically, exchange rate pass-through was found to be in the long-run incomplete in the period of depreciation and statistically zero pass-through in the period of appreciation. In the short-run, the exchange rate pass-through in periods of depreciation is near complete; that is, 81% against 74% in periods of appreciation. We recommend that monetary authorities consistently monitor exchange rate behaviour and maintain efficient exchange rate management policies to ensure stable consumer prices. This could be achieved through proper and timely policy interventions using the available monetary policy tools such as foreign exchange reserves.

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkish Imports of Cocoa Beans

The present paper uses asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling where a nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate yields results that are different than those yielded by linear models. We study cocoa imports for Turkey with advanced ARDL and nonlinear ARDL frameworks. Our findings reveal that there is considerable asymmetry for the case of Turkish cocoa bean imports from Côte d’Ivoire. Compared with imports from Ghana, there are significant differences in Turkish importers’ preferences when choosing between the two cocoa bean providers. Our results provide support for the nonlinear adjustment of the real Turkish lira–US dollar exchange rate and a hint of imperfect rivalry in Turkish cocoa bean imports.

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Inflation in Turkey: A NARDL Approach

Inflation expectation resulting from the exchange rate increases is one of the widely discussed topics in the literature. The extent of the effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation, and the duration of the impact are essential data that should be considered in determining disinflation policies. The literature findings show that the high level of rises in the exchange rate pass-through much faster on inflation, especially in dollarized economies with high inflation inertia. On the other hand, it has been revealed that the relationship between exchange rate inflation is asymmetrical. The Turkish economy, which struggles with chronicle higher inflation, has experienced a currency crisis in 2018. Therefore, to analyse the effect of exchange rate on inflation in Turkey is very important for the effectiveness of the fight against inflation and developing a policy proposal in this direction. This study examined the asymmetric relationships between exchange rate and inflation using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for 2004:Q1 – 2019:Q4. Findings indicate that the exchange rate pass-through into inflation is asymmetric in Turkey in the long-run. Besides, a decrease in the exchange rate has no statistically significant effect on inflation, but an increase also increases inflation in the short-run.

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Southeast Asian Rice Trade

AbstractAsian countries consume approximately 90% of the world’s rice supply. Between 2007 and 2014, Thailand, Vietnam, and India accounted for 60% of the world’s exports of rice. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) econometric model is utilized to estimate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on rice trade in Southeast Asia. Focusing on the largest importing countries and exporting country by volume, the analysis considers Malaysian, Indonesian, the Philippines, and Chinese rice imports from Thailand. Results show that importing countries’ state trading enterprises (STEs) generally do not follow profit-maximizing behavior in reacting to exchange rate volatility.

Exchange rate pass-through in the Caucasus and Central Asia

This article estimates the extent and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in seven Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries using monthly data over the January 1995–May 2020 period. The estimations are performed using the local projections method. We find that the average pass-through in the CCA is about 10% on impact and about 25% after 12 months. There is no evidence of asymmetric ERPT with respect to the size and the sign of exchange rate changes. The pass-through is broadly unchanged in fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes. There has been a downward shift in the speed of ERPT in the aftermath of the global financial crisis as CCA countries have entered a relatively low inflation environment. The pass-through estimates could be used by the CCA monetary authorities for inflation projections. The absence of nonlinearities in the pass-through with respect to the exchange rate regime suggests that transition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes in the region is not likely to impose additional inflationary costs.

An Analysis of Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through on Export Prices in Korea and Japan

An Analysis of Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through on Export Prices in Korea and Japan

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import and Export Prices for Turkey: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Approach

This paper re-examines the exchange rate pass-through into trade prices in Turkey to observe possible asymmetries. This exercise is done using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. We provide empirical evidence that the impact of exchange rate into import and export prices are asymmetric, meaning that the export and import prices respond differently to a change in exchange rate depending on the direction. Moreover, we observe that the pass-through coefficients decline after Turkey adopts floating exchange rate regime. This result has important implications in terms of monetary policy.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Caucasus and Central Asia

This paper estimates the extent and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in seven Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries using monthly data over the January 1995–May 2020 period. The estimations are performed using the local projections method. We find that the average pass-through in the CCA is about 10 percent on impact and about 25 percent after 12 months. There is no evidence of asymmetric ERPT with respect to the size and the sign of exchange rate changes. The pass-through is broadly unchanged in fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes. There has been a downward shift in the speed of ERPT in the aftermath of the global financial crisis as CCA countries have entered a relatively low inflation environment. The pass-through estimates could be used by the CCA monetary authorities for inflation projections. The absence of non-linearities in the pass-through with respect to the exchange rate regime suggests that transition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes in the region is not likely to impose additional inflationary costs.

Asymmetric impact of exchange rate pass-through into employees' wages in sub-Saharan Africa: panel non-linear threshold estimation

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to investigate the asymmetric impact of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) on employees' wages via consumer prices in 15 major oil-exporting countries from sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1996-2017 using the panel threshold regression model.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology used in this article was built on non-linear panel threshold regression models developed by Hansen (1996, 1999) threshold regression. The authors first tested for the existence of threshold-effect in ERPT and wage nexus using 1,000 bootstrap replications and 400 grid searches to obtain an optimal threshold. We also estimated that asymmetric ERPT on employees' wages reacts differently when the inflation-threshold exceeds beyond a 15.12% threshold level.FindingsOur findings showed that asymmetric ERPT is incomplete and indicates that an increase by one standard deviation in real exchange rate causes a decline in employees' wages by 2.69%.Research limitations/implicationsThe policy implications of our results are drawn from the significant threshold estimates. However, a significant threshold value of 15.12 is an inflation-threshold estimates that split our 330 observations into the lower (upper) regimes. Further, an inflation rate beyond the threshold value is likely to have an asymmetric ERPT on employees' wages in the 15 major oil-exporting sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries.Practical implicationsThe practical implication of the study is when ERPT exceeds the threshold, the effect of real exchange rate variations is passed on to employees' wages. It is widely believed that labor productivity increase with increased minimum wages. Nevertheless, there is contention as regards the effects on employment and poverty. As rising goods prices make the minimum wage increased homogeneous of degree zero.Social implicationsConsiderable increased ERPT on imported goods reduces employees' wages purchasing ability from import-dependent countries through import prices. Once it has documented, this also reduces welfare via deteriorations of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and marginal propensity to savings (MPS).Originality/valueThis article integrates labor purchasing power into the analysis of ERPT using non-linear dynamic panel heterogeneous threshold regression. It extends the Hansen (1996, 1999) dynamic panel threshold models to exchange rate pass-through in SSA economies.

The Impact of Exchange Rate on US Imports of Salmon: A Two-Stage Demand Model Approach

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the impact of the exchange rate on trade flows by using a two-stage demand model. The elasticity of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) derived from the model is determined by demand elasticity, excess supply elasticity, elasticity of substitution, and market share. The empirical case is the US salmon import market. For the primary export countries, the elasticity of ERPT ranges between 0.37 and 0.62 in the long run. Although the empirical results suggest a partial ERPT in this market, there is no evidence of an asymmetric ERPT, as revealed by the simulated ERPT elasticities.

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through into Korea’s Export Prices to China

This paper analyzes the ERPT (Exchange Rate Pass-Through) into Korea’s aggregate export price and prices of 18 industries to China, under the HS (Harmonized System) classification, utilizing monthly data from July 2005 to November 2017. By adopting the bound test, long-term co-integration relationships have been established in 17 industries, when assuming symmetric ERPT effects. All industries are co-integrated in the long-run when assuming the ERPT effects are asymmetric. By employing linear ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) and nonlinear ARDL model, the estimation results show that the ERPT into Korea’s aggregate export prices to China is -0.38. The degree of ERPT effects varies across industries. Asymmetric ERPT effects into Korea’s export prices to China are detected in most of the industries. Our findings suggest that exchange rate policies are crucial to adjust Korea-China export prices. Pricing power should be enhanced in some less competitive industries.

Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ghana: is there asymmetry?

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to reexamine the speed and magnitude of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThe Johansen Maximum Likelihood approach is employed in the estimation of different models of symmetric and asymmetric ERPT. Specifically asymmetric ERPT models with respect to the direction and size of exchange rate changes are estimated.FindingsResults reveal that even though a depreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate will lead to an increase of consumer prices in the long-run, it is not statistically significant. Evidence also suggests a significant asymmetry with respect to direction and size of exchange rate changes. This indicates that the right ERPT model is an asymmetric model. Specifically ERPT is found to be incomplete but relatively higher in periods of depreciation than in periods of appreciation; that is 53 percent against 3 percent. ERPT is also higher during episodes of large changes (about 51 percent).Research limitations/implicationsIt would have been interesting to analyze the impact on consumer prices through changes in import prices. That approach was not adopted due to lack of consistent data on import prices in Ghana.Practical implicationsIt is imperative that the monetary authorities critically monitor exchange rate movements in order to be able to take swift policy action so as to counteract any inflationary pressures from the external sector. In particular, much attention should be paid to events and arrangements that could result in large depreciation of the exchange rate.Originality/valueWhile previous studies have assumed a symmetric ERPT model for Ghana, this paper is unique in that it investigates the most appropriate model for examining ERPT in Ghana whether symmetric or an asymmetric.

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through in Sudan: Does Inflation React Differently during Periods of Currency Depreciation?

Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model, we confirm that the response of consumer prices to the changes in the exchange rate is asymmetric in the short and long run. The analysis reveals that moderate inflation is associated with currency depreciation while no material effect is observed during appreciation in the short run. In the long run, depreciation is passed through to consumer prices rather than appreciation. We find that 10 per cent depreciation in the Sudanese pound leads to approximately an eight percentage point increase in consumer price levels. The result — inflation in Sudan is largely driven by sharp depreciation episodes — suggests the need to mitigate the disruptive effects of sharp depreciations. We find that the impact of oil price shocks on domestic inflation is insignificant, a finding that is consistent with the recent international evidence.

Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico

This paper applies a nonlinear Autoregressive Distribute Lag to examine the exchange rate pass-through into consumer price inflation in Mexico. Overall, the evidence confirmed that ignoring the asymmetric (sign) effect of exchange rate movements on inflation may lead to incorrect inferences and policy conclusions. Exchange rate fluctuation is transferred to prices level more during currency depreciation than appreciation. We compare the macroeconomic performances between pre- and post-inflation targeting, and our findings reaffirmed that the pass-through has weakened significantly after launching inflation targeting in 2001. This result implies that low inflation in the sample period examined is good for Mexico because exchange rate pass-through declines after 2001. Consumer prices have become less responsive to exchange rate movements. We further observe a revival (strengthening) of oil price pass-through to domestic inflation in the post- inflation targeting period.

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through Behavior over the Business Cycle

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through Behavior over the Business Cycle

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models

Abstract This paper examines the presence of asymmetric behavior in exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to CPI inflation in 12 euro area (EA) countries. Using a class of nonlinear smooth transition models, the author tests for asymmetry with respect to the direction and the magnitude of exchange rate changes. On the one hand, the author finds only 5 out of 12 EA countries showing asymmetric pass-through related to exchange rate appreciations and depreciations. Results are somewhat mixed with no clear evidence about the direction of asymmetry. On the other hand, the author reports strong evidence that ERPT responds asymmetrically to the size of exchange rate changes as a result of presence of menu costs. The degree of ERPT is found to be higher for large exchange rate changes than for small ones in 9 out of 12 EA countries.

Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries

The aim of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effect of exchange rate variations on prices over the short- and long-run in four major developed countries. To this end, we estimate a mark-up model for prices using a novel and simple asymmetric cointegrating model, with positive and negative partial sum decomposition of the nominal exchange rates. Our results show that prices react differently to appreciations and depreciations over the long-run, an effect that was previously ignored in the literature. In particular, we provide evidence that depreciations are passed through prices more than appreciations, a result that might suggest weak competition structures. This result has important implications for the proper conduct of monetary policy.