Asymmetric Cointegration Research Articles

Sovereign CDS and bond credit spread dynamics in the Euro zone: evidence of an asymmetric price transmission in sovereign debt markets

In this paper, I address the price discovery process in the Euro zone sovereign credit risk markets. In particular, I analyse the dynamics between CDS spreads and bond credits spreads, which are regarded by market participants as close substitutes. Indeed, by no-arbitrage conditions there should be a close relationship between them. Recent empirical research shows that short-term deviations between the variables may arise due to market frictions, yet they disappear in the long-term. This error-correction mechanism translates into a cointegration relationship between the spreads. In contrast with recent literature and as a novelty, I show that the speed of adjustment of the error-correction mechanism may depend on the size and the sign of the departure from the long-term equilibrium relationship between credit spreads and CDS spreads. One of the implications of these findings is that deviations may even subsist in the long-run if they do not achieve a certain threshold. This asymmetric cointegration also a...

Liquidity Constraints, Loss Aversion, and Myopia: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper adopts the asymmetric error correction technique to investigate the dynamics of household consumption in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The asymmetric co-integration testing shows that households in all CEE countries but Bulgaria respond asymmetrically to negative and positive shocks. Further, the estimates of the asymmetric error correction equations show that despite underdeveloped banking sectors, households in all CEE countries asymmetrically responding to deviations but Slovakia exhibit loss aversion. As an explanation for this finding, we suggest that to smooth consumption, households in these countries deplete their savings.

On the empirical evidence of asymmetric effects in the Polish interest rate pass-through

The paper empirically examines the potential asymmetries in the interest rate pass-through in Poland. We investigate the chosen retail interest rates in commercial banks on deposits and loans denominated in the Polish currency. It is considered whether their adjustment to changes in interbank rates is asymmetric in the long term as well as in the short term. We test for asymmetric cointegration using threshold autoregressive models and momentum-threshold autoregressive models. Next, if it is possible applying the threshold error correction models, we search for asymmetries associated with the following factors: the direction of change in the money market rate, the level of the economic activity, the level of liquidity, the level of central bank's credibility, the level of expectations, and the level of competition. Finally, we test whether using the asymmetric models improves the quality of forecasts of retail bank interest rates.

Asymmetric Dynamic Interrelationships among the Greater Chinese, Japanese and US Stock Markets

Over the past decade, empirical studies have not found any evidence of cointegration relationships between the A-shares in the Shanghai/Shenzhen markets and the other indexes in foreign markets. However, by performing an asymmetric cointegration test, we surprisingly find a strong long-run asymmetric cointegration relationship linking A-shares in the Shanghai/Shenzhen markets with either the Hang Seng index or the Taiwan index, thereby confirming the concept of a Greater Chinese stock market. On the other hand, we find an insignificant long-run asymmetric cointegration relationship between the S & P500/Nikkei 225 and the A-shares in the Shanghai/Shenzhen markets. The asymmetric dynamic inter-relationships can provide an interesting point of view.

How inflationary are oil price hikes? A disaggregated look at Thailand using symmetric and asymmetric cointegration models

The present paper analyzes the inflationary effects of oil prices at the aggregate and disaggregated levels for Thailand using symmetric and asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling approaches. The cointegration test results suggest the presence of long-run relations between oil prices and the following price indices: aggregate consumer price index, non-food and beverage price index, housing and furnishing price index, energy price index, non-raw food and energy price index and transportation and communication price index. Meanwhile, food and beverage price index and raw food price index are not cointegrated with the oil prices. From the dynamic analyses, we uncover evidence for asymmetric adjustments of the aggregate consumer prices, the non-food and beverage prices and the housing and furnishing prices towards their long-run values. Further, the effects of oil prices on inflation are observed to be significant in all goods sectors in the short run. The largest impacts of oil price changes are on the energy price inflation followed by the transportation and communication price inflation and the non-raw food and energy price inflation.

THE ECONOMIC VOTING HYPOTHESIS IN THE PRESENCE OF THRESHOLD EFFECTS: EVIDENCE FROM ASYMMETRIC MODELING

The issue of asymmetry and nonlinearity in the context of economic voting was proposed as far back as the 1970s. The aim of this paper is to revisit the economic voting phenomenon by investigating the asymmetric cointegration between government popularity and economic conditions in Taiwan over the period from 1992 to 2007. We employ an advanced threshold autoregressive model and find strong evidence of threshold cointegration relationships between our observed variables. Furthermore, an asymmetric error correction model indicates that voters use different economic indicators to evaluate government popularity in different regimes and the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium is more rapid in the lower regime and slower in the higher regime. Finally, the evidence shows that the economic voting behavior is supported by the presence of the threshold effects. Based on the nonlinear, asymmetric and threshold effects, we are able to provide several critical implications concerning the governance of the incumbent political party, particularly, in relation to the promotion of economic policy aimed at improving its popularity.

A THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF ASYMMETRIC ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GHANAIAN MAIZE MARKETS

This paper analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship between retail and wholesale Ghanaian maize prices with cointegration test assuming asymmetric adjustment. Using the Enders-Siklos asymmetric cointegration tests, it is found that the retail and wholesale prices are cointegrated with threshold adjustment. Furthermore, the adjustment process is asymmetric when the retail and wholesale prices adjust to achieve the long-term equilibrium. Finally, there is faster convergence for negative deviations from long-term equilibrium than for positive deviations. These results imply that price increases tend to persist whereas decreases tend to revert quickly towards equilibrium.

Energy consumption and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: An asymmetric cointegration analysis

Cet article étudie l’existence d’effets asymétriques dans la relation énergie-croissance. En utilisant des données de PIB réel par habitant et de consommation d’énergie par habitant au cours de la période 1971-2008, nous examinons cette relation pour 12 pays africains. Pour le Gabon, le Nigeria et la Côte d’Ivoire, les résultats montrent que leur taux de croissance pourrait être affecté négativement par les politiques de conservation. Toutefois, pour le Bénin, le Kenya et le Soudan les politiques de conservation pourraient améliorer le processus de croissance dans ces pays. Classification JEL : Q43 ; C54 ; C22.

Asymmetric adjustment of diesel or petrol retail prices to crude oil price movements: New Zealand evidence

AbstractThis study has twofold objectives. Firstly, to examine the short‐ and long‐run relationships between diesel or petrol retail prices in New Zealand and crude oil prices and, secondly, to assess the response of retail sector price movements to changes in crude oil prices. The study uses both standard and hidden asymmetric cointegration methods. The major findings are as follows: the prices of diesel and petrol maintain both short‐ and long‐run relationships with crude oil prices although the pass‐through rates differ. Diesel prices are found to be symmetric in response to the changes in crude oil prices, while petrol prices respond asymmetrically to changes in crude oil prices. When crude oil prices increase, petrol prices in New Zealand increase immediately and not vice versa. The reasons for the asymmetric pricing behaviour might include higher demand for petrol than diesel, individual and tourist‐type customers rather than commercial and industrial customers, search costs, revenue‐maximising behaviour of retailers based on high demand, and government taxes and levies.

Asymmetric Effects Of Inflation On Stock Market Prices: New Empirical Evidence Using Greek Data

Since economic theory establishes a relationship between stock market returns and inflation rate, we attempt to re-evaluate the above relationship for Greece considering the possibility of nonlinearities. In particular, empirical analysis is based upon the nonlinear cointegration framework and applies the asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology, following previous work by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2011). In doing so, we permit a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process toward equilibrium, than in the classical case of a linear model. Our findings present evidence of asymmetric adjustment around a unique long-run equilibrium.

Who has more influence on Asian stock markets around the subprime mortgage crisis – the US or China?

This article employed the Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (M-TAR) model to investigate the changes in the asymmetric co-integration relationship between the US and China's stock markets and Asian stock markets of Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Korea and India around the subprime mortgage crisis. The main empirical findings demonstrated that with the application of traditional symmetric co-integration tests, the subprime mortgage crisis did not reinforce the co-movement trends between the US and China's markets and Asian markets. However, with the application of the M-TAR model for the threshold co-integration test, there was significant increase in these asymmetric co-integration relationships between them during the period of the subprime mortgage crisis, and our empirical results show evidence that the linkage between the US and China's stock markets is low, and investors can somewhat diversify risks by investing in the United States and China simultaneously.

Energy consumption and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: An asymmetric cointegration analysis

This paper investigates the asymmetric effect in the energy-growth nexus. Using the data for real GDP per capita and energy consumption per capita over the period 1971-2008, we examine the relationship for 12 sub-Saharan African countries employing hidden cointegration approach. For Gabon, Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire, the results show that their growth rates could be adversely affected by conservation policies. However, for Benin, Kenya and Sudan the results show that conservation policies could enhance the growth process in these countries. We also find instances of policy dilemma for Nigeria and Benin that conform to both the growth and the conservation hypotheses.

On the Empirical Evidence of Asymmetry Effects in the Interest Rate Pass-Through in Poland

This paper empirically examines the potential asymmetries in the interest rate pass-through in Poland. We investigate the chosen retail interest rates in commercial banks on deposits and loans denominated in the Polish currency. It is considered whether their adjustment to changes in interbank rates is asymmetric in the long term as well as in the short term. We test for asymmetric cointegration using threshold autoregressive models and momentum-threshold autoregressive models. Next, if it is possible applying the threshold error correction models, we search for asymmetries associated with the direction of change in the money market rate, the level of the economic activity, the level of liquidity in the banking sector, the central bank’s credibility and the economic agents’ expectations. Finally, we test whether using the asymmetric models improves the quality of forecasts of retail bank interest rates.

Asymmetric convergence in US financial credit default swap sector index markets

Abstract This study examines the asymmetric adjustments to the long-run equilibrium for credit default swap (CDS) sector indexes of three financial sectors – banking, financial services and insurance – in the presence of a threshold effect. The results of the momentum-threshold autoregression (M-TAR) models demonstrate that asymmetric cointegration exists for all pairs comprised of those three CDS indexes. The speeds of adjustment in the long-run are much higher in the case of adjustments from below the threshold than from above for all the pairs. The estimates of The MTAR-VEC models suggest that the dual CDS index return in each sector pair participates in the adjustment to equilibrium in the short- and long-run taken together. But in the long-run alone, only one of the two spreads in each pair participates. Policy implications are also provided.

Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework

We develop a cointegrating nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in which short- and long-run nonlinearities are introduced via positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the explanatory variables. We demonstrate that the model is estimable by OLS and that reliable long-run inference can be achieved by bounds-testing regardless of the integration orders of the variables. Furthermore, we derive asymmetric dynamic multipliers that graphically depict the traverse between the short- and the long-run. The salient features of the model are illustrated using the example of the nonlinear unemployment-output relationship in the US, Canada and Japan.

Inflation hedging effectiveness of an emerging Asian market: the case of Malaysia

This paper empirically examines the inflation-hedging property of an emerging stock market, Malaysia, for full sample (1988-2008), pre-crisis sample (1988-1996) and post-crisis sample (1999-2008) by means of asymmetric cointegration and asymmetric error-correction modelling. The focus is on the long-run relation between stock prices and consumer prices, the adjustment speed of the stock market to restore the long-run relation and their short run interactions. From the analyses, we uncover evidence supporting the long-run inflation-hedging ability of the Malaysian stock market only during the pre-crisis period. Its hedging ability, however, weakens for the full sample and is absent post-crisis. In the short run, we note that rising inflation tends to be followed by stock market decline.

Stock market and aggregate consumption asymmetry: evidence from Malaysia

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the influences of real share prices on aggregate consumption for Malaysia with the focus on whether there is asymmetry in the long‐run relation of the two variables.Design/methodology/approachThe paper specifies aggregate consumption to depend on real income and real share prices. Alternatively, imposing long‐run budget constraint, the paper specifies the relation between aggregate consumption and real share prices as ratio to real income. Then, it applies an asymmetric cointegration and error correction modeling.FindingsThe cointegration tests indicate the presence of a long‐run relation between consumption‐income ratio and share price‐income ratio. More interestingly, while changes in share prices exert short‐run causal influences on Malaysia's private consumption, evidence is found for the adjustments of consumption – income ratio to the long‐run equilibrium path only when it is above its long‐run value. The paper interprets the finding as suggesting downward revisions in the consumption patterns when there are adverse shocks in share prices and, accordingly, supports the existence of especially negative wealth effect for Malaysia.Research limitations/implicationsOwing to data limitations, the paper relies on aggregate consumption and aggregate income data. It acknowledges that the sum of non‐durable consumption and flow‐of‐services from durable purchases and labor income are more appropriate measures of, respectively, consumption and real income.Originality/valueThe findings have important implications for understanding consumption behavior in a developing country and can provide insight on the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Asymmetric pass-through and risk of interest rate: an empirical exploration of Taiwan and Hong Kong

This study employs the asymmetric threshold cointegration test suggested by Enders and Siklos (2001) and creates asymmetric EC-EGARCH(1, 1)- M model to investigate the pass-through of money-market rate to banking retail rates in Taiwan and Hong Kong. It further explores the impact of interest volatility on interest rates. Over the period of February 1988 to December 2004, we find that the interest pass-through mechanism of these two markets is noncomplete. In addition, based on the asymmetric threshold cointegration test, we discover the existence of asymmetric cointegration relationship between retail rates and market rate in both markets. In particular, while employing asymmetric EC-EGARCH (1, 1)-M model to test for the influence of money-market rate adjustment and volatility on retail rates in short-run, we find robust evidence that there exist the upward rigidity in deposit rate and the downward rigidity in lending rate in both Taiwan and Hong Kong. This finding supports the hypothesis of the collusive pricing arrangements. Furthermore, interest volatility should cause a smaller margin of variation for Taiwan's deposit/lending rates and wider margin for Hong Kong's lending rate.

Vegetable oil market and biofuel policy: An asymmetric cointegration approach

The present paper analyses the long-run relationship between vegetable oil prices and conventional diesel prices in the EU for the period 2005–2007. We applied recent developments in the threshold cointegration approach to investigate the presence of asymmetric dynamic adjusting processes between the prices of rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and soybean oil, and the price of a mineral oil: diesel. The results presented suggest a two-regime threshold cointegration model only for the rapeseed oil–diesel price pair. Thus, the rapeseed oil price adjusts rapidly to its long-run equilibrium, determined by fossil diesel prices, but this adjustment is asymmetric: it differs if the divergence between the two prices is above or below a critical threshold. Consequently, rapeseed oil appears particularly exposed to external shocks deriving from global political scenarios, suggesting the reassessment of the high quota (80%) of EU biodiesel represented by this vegetable oil.

Market volatility and retail interest rate pass-through

Using the asymmetric threshold cointegration test proposed by Enders and Siklos [Enders, W., Siklos, P., 2001. Cointegration and threshold adjustment. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19, 166–176] and the EC-EGARCH (1, 1)-M model, this study examines the interest rate pass-through mechanism between the money market rate and the retail interest rate. In addition, we also investigate the impact of the interest rate volatility on the interest rates of the U.S. and nine Asian countries. We find that the complete pass-through only exists in the U.S. deposit rate. The threshold cointegration test results show that the asymmetric cointegration relation exists in the deposit interest rate in five countries and in the lending rate in three countries. The symmetric cointegration relation exists in two countries. Besides, an estimation of the conditional means using the EC-EGARCH (1, 1)-M model shows that the effect of interest rate volatility on the retail interest rate differs from country to country. Among the eight countries that exhibit asymmetric adjustments in the short run, five of them are found to have upwards rigid adjustments in the deposit interest rate and three downwards rigid adjustments in the lending rate. The empirical results of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines support the hypothesis of collusive pricing arrangements. As to the estimation of the conditional variance, among the seven countries that exhibit asymmetric volatility, the leverage effect in the lending rate exists in two of them.