Astrometric Noise Research Articles

Closeby Habitable Exoplanet Survey (CHES). I. Astrometric Noise and Planetary Detection Efficiency Due to Stellar Spots and Faculae

The Closeby Habitable Exoplanet Survey (CHES) is dedicated to the astrometric exploration for habitable-zone Earth-like planets orbiting solar-type stars in close proximity, achieving unprecedented microarcsecond precision. Given the elevated precision, meticulous consideration of photocenter jitters induced by stellar activity becomes imperative. This study endeavors to model the stellar activity of solar-type stars, compute astrometric noise, and delineate the detection limits of habitable planets within the astrometric domain. Simulations were conducted for identified primary targets of CHES, involving the generation of simulated observed data for astrometry and photometry, accounting for the impact of stellar activity. Estimation of activity levels in our sample was achieved through chromospheric activity indices, revealing that over 90% of the stars exhibited photocenter jitters below 1 μas. Notably, certain proximate stars, such as α Cen A and B, displayed more discernible noise arising from stellar activity. Subsequent tests were performed to evaluate detection performance, unveiling that stellar activity tends to have a less pronounced impact on planetary detectability for the majority of the stars. Approximately 95% of the targets demonstrated a detection efficiency exceeding 80%. However, for several cold stars, e.g., HD 32450 and HD 21531, with the habitable zones close to the stars, a reduction in detection efficiency was observed. These findings offer invaluable insights into the intricate interplay between stellar activity and astrometric precision, significantly advancing our understanding in the search for habitable planets.

VaDAR: Varstrometry for Dual AGN Using Radio Interferometry

Binary and dual active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are an important observational tool for studying the formation and dynamical evolution of galaxies and supermassive black holes. An entirely new method for identifying possible AGN pairs makes use of the exquisite positional accuracy of Gaia to detect astrometrically variable quasars, in tandem with the high spatial resolution of the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA). We present a new pilot study of radio observations of 18 quasars (0.8 ≤ z ≤ 2.9), selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR16Q and matched with the Gaia DR3. All 18 targets are identified by their excess astrometric noise in Gaia. We targeted these 18 quasars with the VLA at 2–4 GHz (S band) and 8–12 GHz (X band), providing resolutions of 0.″65 and 0.″2, respectively, in order to constrain the origin of this variability. We combine these data with ancillary radio survey data and perform radio spectral modeling. The new observations are used to constrain the driver of the excess astrometric noise. We find that ∼44% of the target sample is likely to be either candidate dual AGN or gravitationally lensed quasars. Ultimately, we use this new strategy to help identify and understand this sample of astrometrically variable quasars, demonstrating the potential of this method for systematically identifying kiloparsec-scale dual quasars.

Varstrometry for Off-nucleus and Dual Sub-kiloparsec Active Galactic Nuclei (VODKA): Very Long Baseline Array Searches for Dual or Off-nucleus Quasars and Small-scale Jets

Dual and off-nucleus active supermassive black holes are expected to be common in the hierarchical structure formation paradigm, but their identification at parsec scales remains a challenge due to strict angular resolution requirements. We conducted a systematic study using the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) to examine 23 radio-bright candidate dual and off-nucleus quasars. The targets are selected by a novel astrometric technique (varstrometry) from Gaia, aiming to identify dual or off-nucleus quasars at (sub)kiloparsec scales. Among these quasars, eight exhibit either multiple radio components or significant (>3σ) positional offsets between the VLBA and Gaia positions. The radio emission from the three candidates, which exhibit multiple radio components, is likely to originate from small-scale jets based on their morphology. Among the remaining five candidates with significant VLBA-Gaia offsets, three are identified as potential dual quasars at parsec scales, one is likely attributed to small-scale jets, and the origin of the last candidate remains unclear. We explore alternative explanations for the observed VLBA-Gaia offsets. We find no evidence for optical jets at kiloparsec scales, nor any contamination to Gaia astrometric noise from the host galaxy; misaligned coordinate systems are unlikely to account for our offsets. Our study highlights the promise of the varstrometry technique in discovering candidate dual or off-nucleus quasars and emphasizes the need for further confirmation and investigation to validate and understand these intriguing candidates.

A Hunting Expedition For High-Order Hierarchies

ABSTRACT Stellar hierarchical systems of high order containing more than three stars are rare and fascinating objects; their discovery and study highlight still unknown aspects of star formation and early evolution. We matched eclipsing binaries discovered by Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite with a Gaia catalogue of wide binaries and selected candidate quadruple (or higher order) systems based on excessive astrometric noise. A subset of 192 southern candidates located within 500 pc was observed by speckle interferometry, and we resolved for the first time 50 close pairs, confirming their high-order (from four to five components) multiplicity. These observations are reported, and some remarkable hierarchical systems are discussed.

Exploring Thousands of Nearby Hierarchical Systems with Gaia and Speckle Interferometry

There should be about 10,000 stellar hierarchical systems within 100 pc with primary stars more massive than 0.5 M ⊙, and a similar amount of less-massive hierarchies. A list of 8000 candidate multiples is derived from wide binaries found in the Gaia Catalog of Nearby Stars where one or both components have excessive astrometric noise or other indicators of inner subsystems. A subset of 1243 southern candidates were observed with high angular resolution at the 4.1 m Southern Astrophysical Research Telescope, and 503 new pairs with separations from 0.″03 to 1″ were resolved. These data allow estimation of the inner mass ratios and periods, and help to quantify the ability of Gaia to detect close pairs. Another 621 hierarchies with known inner periods come from the Gaia catalog of astrometric and spectroscopic orbits. These two nonoverlapping groups, combined with existing ground-based data, bring the total number of known nearby hierarchies to 2754, reaching a completeness of ∼22% for stars above 0.5 M ⊙. Distributions of their periods and mass ratios are briefly discussed, and the prospects of further observations are outlined.

Astrometric detection of binary asteroids

ABSTRACT Binary asteroids probe thermal-radiation effects on the main-belt asteroids’ evolution. We discuss the possibility of detecting binary minor planet systems by the astrometric wobble of the centre of light around the centre of mass. This method enables the exploration of the phase-space of binary asteroids, which is difficult to explore using common detection techniques. We describe a forward model that projects the centre-of-light position with respect to the centre of mass, as it is seen by the observer. We study the performance of this method using simulated Gaia-like data. We apply the astrometric method to a subset of the Gaia DR2 Solar system catalogue and find no significant evidence of binary asteroids. This is likely because the Gaia DR2 removed astrometric outliers, which in our case may be due to astrophysical signals. Applying this method to binary asteroid (4337) Arecibo, for which Gaia DR3 reported a possible astrometric signal with a period of P = 32.85 ± 0.38 h, reveals a possible 2.2σ solution with a period of 16.26 h (about half the reported period). We find a small, marginally significant, excess of astrometric noise in the known binary asteroid population from Pravec et al. relative to the entire asteroid population in the Gaia DR2 Solar system catalogue. We also discuss some caveats like precession and asteroid rotation.

A non-detection of red supergiant convection in Gaia

ABSTRACT Large-scale surface convection on red supergiants (RSGs) can lead to shifts in the photocentre of the star that might be measured by Gaia and used as a new probe of the surface dynamics of these rare but important stars. Unlike brightness variations, photocentre motions would provide information on the physical scale of the convective cells. The signal would be that RSGs show an excess astrometric noise at the level of a few per cent of the stellar radius. Unfortunately, we find that the excess astrometric noise level of Gaia EDR3 is roughly an order of magnitude too large to detect the predicted motions and that RSGs have excess astrometric noise indistinguishable from other stars of similar magnitude, colour, or parallax. The typical excess astrometric noise steadily decreases with G magnitude (for G < 11 mag), so it is crucial to compare stars of similar brightness.

The η Aquilae System: Radial Velocities and Astrometry in Search of η Aql B

The classical Cepheid η Aql was not included in past Leavitt Law work because of a presumed complicating orbit due to a known B9.8V companion. To determine the orbit of η Aql B, we analyze a significant number of radial velocity (RV) measurements from eight sources. With these we establish the RV variation due to Cepheid pulsation, using a model with 12 Fourier coefficients, while solving for velocity offsets required to bring the RV data sets into coincidence. RV residuals provide no evidence of orbital motion, suggesting either nearly face-on orientation or a very long period. Reanalysis of Hubble Space Telescope Fine Guidance Sensor astrometry now includes reference star parallax and proper motion priors from Gaia EDR3. As modeling confirmation, we reanalyze ζ Gem in parallel, deriving values for its parallax and proper motion consistent with Gaia EDR3, and consistent with the Benedict 2007 Leavitt Law. In an effort to further characterize η Aql B, we hypothesize that η Aql residuals larger than those of the associated reference stars or a parallax inconsistent with EDR3 and the Benedict 2007 Leavitt Law indicate unmodeled orbital motion. Using the astrometric noise or parallax mismatch with EDR3, we estimate possible periods and mass for η Aql B. Ascribing photocenter motion to the photometric variation of the Cepheid, η Aql A, yields a plausible separation that is consistent with a long period and explains the lack of RV variation. None of these approaches yields an unassailable characterization of the η Aql A–B system.

Astrometric identification of nearby binary stars II: Astrometric binaries in the Gaia Catalogue of Nearby Stars

Abstract We examine the capacity to identify binary systems from astrometric deviations alone. We apply our analysis to the Gaia eDR3 and DR2 data, specifically the Gaia Catalogue of Nearby Stars. We show we must renormalize (R)UWE over the local volume to avoid biasing local observations, giving a Local Unit Weight Error (LUWE). We use the simple criterion of LUWE>2, along with a handful of quality cuts to remove likely contaminants, to identify unresolved binary candidates. We identify 22,699 binary candidates within 100 pc of the Sun (just under 10 per cent of sources in this volume). We find an astrometric binary candidate fraction of around 20 per cent for giant stars, 10 per cent on the Main Sequence and lower than 1 per cent for White Dwarfs. We also look for Variability Induced Movers, by computing the correlation between photometric variability and astrometric noise - and show that VIMs may dominate the binary population of sub-Solar mass MS stars. We discuss the possibility and limitations of identifying non-luminous massive companions from astrometry alone, but find that our method is insensitive to these. Finally, we compare the astrometric deviations of MS binaries to the simulated sample from paper I, which show excellent agreement, and compute the astrometric candidate binary fraction as a function of absolute magnitude.

Multiwavelength Mitigation of Stellar Activity in Astrometric Planet Detection

Abstract Astrometry has long been a promising technique for exoplanet detection. At the theoretical limits, astrometry would allow for the detection of smaller planets than previously seen by current exoplanet search methods, but stellar activity may make these theoretical limits unreachable. Astrometric jitter of a Sun-like star due to magnetic activity in its photosphere induces apparent variability in the photocenter of order 0.5 mR ⊙. This jitter creates a fundamental astrophysical noise floor preventing detection of lower-mass planets in a single spectral band. By injecting planet orbits into simulated solar data at five different passbands, we investigate mitigation of this fundamental astrometric noise using correlations across passbands. For a true solar analog and a planet at 1 au semimajor axis, the 6σ detection limit set by stellar activity for an ideal telescope at the best single passband is 0.01 Earth masses. We found that pairs of passbands with highly correlated astrometric jitter due to stellar activity, but with less motion in the redder band, enable higher-precision measurements of the common signal from the planet. Using this method improves detectable planet masses at 1 au by up to a factor of 10, corresponding to at best 0.005 Earth masses for a Sun-like star with a perfect telescope. Given these results, we recommend that future astrometry missions consider proceeding with two or more passbands to reduce noise due to stellar activity.

Astrometric Precision Tests on TESS Data

Astrometry at or below the microarcsec level with an imaging telescope assumes that the uncertainty on the location of an unresolved source can be an arbitrarily small fraction of the detector pixel, given a sufficient photon budget. This paper investigates the geometric limiting precision, in terms of CCD pixel fraction, achieved by a large set of star field images, selected among the publicly available science data of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission. The statistics of the distance between selected bright stars (G ≃ 5 mag), in pixel units, is evaluated, using the position estimate provided in the TESS light curve files. The dispersion of coordinate differences appears to be affected by long term variation and noisy periods, at the level of 0.01 pixel. The residuals with respect to low-pass filtered data (tracing the secular evolution), which are interpreted as the experimental astrometric noise, reach the level of a few milli-pixel or below, down to 1/5900 pixel. Saturated images are present, evidencing that the astrometric precision is mostly preserved across the CCD columns, whereas it features a graceful degradation in the along column direction. The cumulative performance of the image set is a few micropixel across columns, or a few 10 μpx along columns. The idea of astrometric precision down to a small fraction of a CCD pixel, given sufficient signal to noise ratio, is confirmed by real data from an in-flight science instrument to the 10−6 pixel level. Implications for future high precision astrometry missions are briefly discussed.

Astrometric excess noise in Gaia EDR3 and the search for X-ray binaries

ABSTRACT Astrometric noise (ϵ) in excess of parallax and proper motion is a potential signature of orbital wobble (ω) of individual components in binary star systems. The combination of X-ray selection with astrometric noise could then be a powerful tool for robustly isolating accreting binaries in large surveys. Here, we mine the Gaia EDR3 catalogue for Galactic sources with significant values of astrometric noise over the parameter space expected for known and candidate X-ray binaries (XRBs). Cross-matching our sample with the Chandra Source Catalogue returns a primary sample of ≈6500 X-ray sources with significant ϵ. X-ray detection efficiency for objects with significant ϵ is a factor of ≈4.5 times higher than in a matched control sample exhibiting low ϵ. The primary sample branches off the main sequence much more than control objects in colour–mag space, and includes a higher fraction of known binaries, variables, and young stellar object class types. However, values of ϵ reported in the Gaia pipeline releases so far can exceed expectations for individual XRBs with known semimajor axis size and other system parameters. It is likely that other factors (possibly attitude and modelling uncertainties, as well as source variability) currently dominate the observed excess noise in such systems. Confirmation of their nature must therefore await future Gaia releases. The full X-ray matched catalogue is released here to enable legacy follow-up.

Completeness of the Gaia-verse – IV. The astrometry spread function of Gaia DR2

ABSTRACT Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2) published positions, parallaxes, and proper motions for an unprecedented 1331 909 727 sources, revolutionizing the field of Galactic dynamics. We complement this data with the astrometry spread function (ASF), the expected uncertainty in the measured positions, proper motions, and parallax for a non-accelerating point source. The ASF is a Gaussian function for which we construct the 5D astrometric covariance matrix as a function of position on the sky and apparent magnitude using the Gaia DR2 scanning law and demonstrate excellent agreement with the observed data. This can be used to answer the question ‘What astrometric covariance would Gaia have published if my star was a non-accelerating point source?’. The ASF will enable characterization of binary systems, exoplanet orbits, astrometric microlensing events, and extended sources that add an excess astrometric noise to the expected astrometry uncertainty. By using the ASF to estimate the unit weight error of Gaia DR2 sources, we demonstrate that the ASF indeed provides a direct probe of the excess source noise. We use the ASF to estimate the contribution to the selection function of the Gaia astrometric sample from a cut on astrometric_sigma5d_max showing high completeness for G < 20 dropping to ${\lt} 1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in underscanned regions of the sky for G = 21. We have added an ASF module to the python package scanninglaw (https://github.com/gaiaverse/scanninglaw) through which users can access the ASF.

Wide binaries are rare in open clusters

ABSTRACT The population statistics of binary stars are an important output of star formation models. However, populations of wide binaries evolve over time due to interactions within a system’s birth environment and the unfolding of wide, hierarchical triple systems. Hence, the wide binary populations observed in star-forming regions or OB associations may not accurately reflect the wide binary populations that will eventually reach the field. We use Gaia DR2 data to select members of three open clusters, Alpha Per, the Pleiades, and Praesepe and to flag cluster members that are likely unresolved binaries due to overluminosity or elevated astrometric noise. We then identify the resolved wide binary population in each cluster, separating it from coincident pairings of unrelated cluster members. We find that these clusters have an average wide binary fraction in the 300–3000 au projected separation range of 2.1$\pm ^{0.4}_{0.2}$ per cent increasing to 3.0$\pm ^{0.8}_{0.7}$ per cent for primaries with masses in the 0.5–1.5 M⊙ range. This is significantly below the observed field wide binary fraction, but shows some wide binaries survive in these dynamically highly processed environments. We compare our results with another open cluster (the Hyades) and two populations of young stars that likely originated in looser associations (young moving groups and the Pisces-Eridanus stream). We find that the Hyades also has a deficit of wide binaries while the products of looser associations have wide binary fractions at or above field level.

Determining the mass of the planetary candidate HD 114762 b using Gaia

The first planetary candidate discovered by Latham et al. (1989, Nature, 339, 38) with radial velocities around a solar-like star other than the Sun, HD 114762 b, was detected with a minimum mass of 11 MJ. The small v sin i ∼ 0 km s−1 that is otherwise measured by spectral analysis indicated that this companion of a late-F subgiant star better corresponds to a massive brown dwarf (BD) or even a low-mass M-dwarf seen nearly face-on. To our knowledge, the nature of HD 114762 b is still undetermined. The astrometric noise measured for this system in the first data release, DR1, of the Gaia mission allows us to derive new constraints on the astrometric motion of HD 114762 and on the mass of its companion. We use the method GASTON, introduced in a preceding paper, which can simulate Gaia data and determine the distribution of inclinations that are compatible with the astrometric excess noise. With an inclination of 6.26.2+1.9−1.3 degree, the mass of the companion is constrained to Mb = 108+31−26 MJ. HD 114762 b thus indeed belongs to the M-dwarf domain, down to brown dwarfs, with Mb > 13.5 MJ at the 3σ level, and is not a planet.

Unrecognized astrometric confusion in the Galactic Centre

The Galactic Centre is a highly crowded stellar field and frequent unrecognized events of source confusion, which involve undetected faint stars, are expected to introduce astrometric noise on a sub-mas level. This confusion noise is the main non-instrumental effect limiting the astrometric accuracy and precision of current near-infrared imaging observations and the long-term monitoring of individual stellar orbits in the vicinity of the central supermassive black hole. We self-consistently simulate the motions of the known and the yet unidentified stars to characterize this noise component and show that a likely consequence of source confusion is a bias in estimates of the stellar orbital elements, as well as the inferred mass and distance of the black hole, in particular if stars are being observed at small projected separations from it, such as the star S2 during pericentre passage. Furthermore, we investigate modeling the effect of source confusion as an additional noise component that is time-correlated, demonstrating a need for improved noise models to obtain trustworthy estimates of the parameters of interest (and their uncertainties) in future astrometric studies.

Modeling collision probability for Earth-impactor 2008 TC3

We study the evolution of the Earth collision probability of asteroid 2008 TC3 using a short observational arc and small numbers of observations. To assess impact probability, we use techniques that rely on the orbital-element probability density function characterized using both Markov-chain Monte-Carlo orbital ranging and Monte-Carlo ranging. First, we evaluate the orbital uncertainties for the object from the night of discovery onwards and examine the collapse of the orbital-element distributions in time. Second, we examine the sensitivity of the results to the assumed astrometric noise. Each of the orbits obtained from the MCMC ranging method is propagated into the future (within chosen time bounds of the expected impact), and the collision probability is calculated as a weighted fraction of the orbits leading to a collision from the Earth. We compare the results obtained with both methods.

Feasibility of performing space surveillance tasks with a proposed space-based optical architecture

Under ESA contract an industrial consortium including Aboa Space Research Oy (ASRO), the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), and the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), proposed the observation concept, developed a suitable sensor architecture, and assessed the performance of a space-based optical (SBO) telescope in 2005. The goal of the SBO study was to analyse how the existing knowledge gap in the space debris population in the millimetre and centimetre regime may be closed by means of a passive optical instrument. The SBO instrument was requested to provide statistical information on the space debris population in terms of number of objects and size distribution. The SBO instrument was considered to be a cost-efficient with 20 cm aperture and 6° field-of-view and having flexible integration requirements. It should be possible to integrate the SBO instrument easily as a secondary payload on satellites launched into low-Earth orbits (LEO), or into geostationary orbit (GEO). Thus the selected mission concept only allowed for fix-mounted telescopes, and the pointing direction could be requested freely. Since 2007 ESA focuses space surveillance and tracking activities in the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) preparatory program. Ground-based radars and optical telescopes are studied for the build-up and maintenance of a catalogue of objects. In this paper we analyse how the proposed SBO architecture could contribute to the space surveillance tasks survey and tracking. We assume that the SBO instrumentation is placed into a circular sun-synchronous orbit at 800 km altitude. We discuss the observation conditions of objects at higher altitude, and select an orbit close to the terminator plane. A pointing of the sensor orthogonal to the orbital plane with optimal elevation slightly in positive direction (0° and +5°) is found optimal for accessing the entire GEO regime within one day, implying a very good coverage of controlled objects in GEO, too. Simulations using ESA’s Program for Radar and Optical Observation Forecasting (PROOF) in the version 2005 and a GEO reference population extracted from DISCOS revealed that the proposed pointing scenario provides low phase angles together with low angular velocities of the objects crossing the field-of-view. Radiometric simulations show that the optimal exposure time is 1–2 s, and that spherical objects in GEO with a diameter of below 1 m can be detected. The GEO population can be covered under proper illumination nearly completely, but seasonal drops of the coverage are possible. Subsequent observations of objects are on average at least every 1.5 days, not exceeding 3 days at maximum. A single observation arc spans 3° to 5° on average. Using a simulation environment that connects PROOF to AIUB’s program system CelMech we verify the consistency of the initial orbit determination for five selected test objects on subsequent days as a function of realistic astrometric noise levels. The initial orbit determination is possible. We define requirements for a correlator process essential for catalogue build-up and maintenance. Each single observation should provide an astrometric accuracy of at least 1”–1.5” so that the initially determined orbits are consistent within a few hundred kilometres for the semi-major axis, 0.01 for the eccentricity, and 0.1° for the inclination.

Bayesian exoplanet tests of a new method for MCMC sampling in highly correlated model parameter spaces

The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a powerful technique for facilitating Bayesian non-linear model fitting. In many cases, the MCMC exploration of the parameter space is very inefficient, because the model parameters are highly correlated. Differential evolution MCMC is one technique that addresses this problem by employing multiple parallel chains. We present a new method that automatically achieves efficient MCMC sampling in highly correlated parameter spaces, which does not require additional chains to accomplish this. It was designed to work with an existing hybrid MCMC (HMCMC) algorithm, which incorporates parallel tempering, simulated annealing and genetic cross-over operations. These features, together with the new correlated parameter sampler, greatly facilitate the detection of a global minimum in χ 2 . The new HMCMC algorithm is very general in scope. Two tests of the algorithm are described employing (a) exoplanet precision radial velocity (RV) data and (b) simulated space astrometry data. The latter test explores the accuracy of parameter estimates obtained with the Bayesian HMCMC algorithm on the assumed astrometric noise.

SIM PlanetQuest Key Project Precursor Observations to Detect Gas Giant Planets around Young Stars

ABSTRACTWe present a review of precursor observing programs for the SIM PlanetQuest Key Project devoted to detecting Jupiter‐mass planets around young stars. In order to ensure that the stars in the sample are free of various sources of astrometric noise that might impede the detection of planets, we have initiated programs to collect photometry, high‐contrast images, interferometric data, and radial velocities for stars in both the northern and southern hemispheres. We have completed a high‐contrast imaging survey of target stars in Taurus and the Pleiades and found no definitive common proper motion companions within 1″ (140 AU) of the SIM targets. Our radial velocity surveys have shown that many of the target stars in Sco‐Cen are fast rotators, and a few stars in Taurus and the Pleiades may have substellar companions. Interferometric data of a few stars in Taurus show no signs of stellar or substellar companions with separations of 5–50 mas. The photometric survey suggests that approximately half of the stars initially selected for this program are variable to a degree (1 σ > 0.1 mag) that would degrade the astrometric accuracy achievable for that star. While the precursor programs are still a work in progress, we provide a comprehensive list of all targets and rank them according to their viability as a result of the observations taken to date. The observable that removes by far the most targets from the SIM young stellar object (YSO) program is photometric variability.