Price Assumptions Research Articles

Heat pump and thermal energy storage: Influences of photovoltaic, the control strategy, and price assumptions on the optimal design

Combining heat pump, thermal energy storage, and photovoltaic is a common option to increase renewable energy usage in building energy systems. While research finds that optimal system design depends on the control, design guidelines neglect an influence of (1) photovoltaic, (2) the supervisory control, and (3) prices assumptions on the design of heat pump and thermal energy storage. We analyze how these influences may impact the optimal design. To analyze possible impacts, a pre-screening approach is used to identify relevant model input combinations with a potentially high influence on the optimal design. Applying a simulation-based design optimization with a detailed building energy system model, we optimize three cases: no photovoltaic, no supervisory control, and a state-of-the-art supervisory control. Results indicate that cost optimal design does not change with photovoltaic or the supervisory control, but heat pump size increases with higher electricity prices. For the storage, maximizing the size achieves high self-sufficiency degrees, but cost optimal design changes only for selected price assumptions. Overall, we find that neglecting photovoltaic and surplus control in the system design is a valid assumption. However, price assumptions should be included to allow simple but optimal design rules in current guidelines.

Integrating liquid hydrogen infrastructure at airports: Conclusions from an ecosystem approach at Rotterdam The Hague Airport

Aviation is a contributor to global warming. Hydrogen-powered aircraft are seen as an important option to decarbonise parts of commercial aviation. Airports have a pivotal role in facilitating the development of ground infrastructure. This paper provides a broader perspective on the supply and handling of liquid hydrogen, and necessary airport developments, to enable hydrogen-powered aviation. Hydrogen-related airport development projects at Rotterdam The Hague Airport (RTHA) are presented and discussed, and a detailed overview of the airport’s liquid hydrogen (LH2) storage facility is given. To link the ongoing developments to future needs, a LH2 demand scenario for RTHA is determined for the years 2040 and 2050. Based on this demand, analysis of levelised cost of hydrogen for relevant value chains were conducted. This study exemplifies that the LH2 value chain for an airport depends on individual characteristics of the airport and its surroundings. The hydrogen demand, the airport’s proximity to larger hydrogen hubs (import and/or production hubs) and the availability of local renewable resources, which influence electricity price and hydrogen production and liquefaction costs, are key parameters and heavily influence the airport LH2 value chain. Conceptualisation and future development of hydrogen infrastructure for airport supply should take into account the above factors. LH2 demand at RTHA in the year 2050 is predicted to range between 8–14kt. Under the given electricity price assumptions, local production and liquefaction of hydrogen at the airport is not seen as a viable option, as cost savings can be achieved by making use of the Port of Rotterdam’s large hydrogen production and import cluster nearby. The work shows that trailer-based logistics for both the delivery of LH2 to the airport and subsequent usage of these trailers in the storage and dispensing process at the airport seems the most viable for RTHA (and airports that show similarities). This further indicates that current small-scale LH2 demonstration at airports provides important lessons for scaling up.

An uneasy truce: a post-intervention gas market in Eastern Australia

We present our analysis of the East Coast fundamentals and our long-term gas price assumptions through 2033 in Wallumbilla and the southern states. The paper concludes that the market has a chance to return from the brink of dysfunction. The replacement of lower-cost legacy supply near demand centres with higher-cost coal seam gas (CSG) from a remote region in another state through limited infrastructure – or liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports – fundamentally signals higher prices even as domestic demand declines from 520 PJ in 2023 to 425 PJ in 2033 with possible intermittent increases during coal retirements. Added to the mix is long-term demand and policy uncertainty, the current era of monetary tightening and vanishing finance for fossil fuel projects. The relationship between East Coast gas producers in Australia and the federal government appears to have de-escalated following the inclusion of potential price cap exemptions in the recently released mandatory code of conduct for the domestic wholesale gas market. Gas remains a crucial long-term input in the manufacturing sector and will continue to support gas intensive industries if price alignment can be achieved, which is what will be needed to ensure the gas sector’s longevity in the energy transition. We also discuss the role of gas in the National Electricity Market which is headed for an increasingly chaotic coal exit, keeping gas extremely relevant to support system resilience.

Do Weather Derivatives Mitigate the Revenue Risk of Farmers?—The Case of Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, China

This research probes the potential of weather derivatives as tools for mitigating the variability of crop yields due to climatic uncertainties in China. Centered on Tongliao City in Inner Mongolia, the study exploits a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to dissect and simulate 32 years of local precipitation data, thereby achieving a simulation of high reliability. Further exploration through a multiple linear regression model confirms a marked positive relationship between rainfall amounts and maize yields. By combining precipitation put options and the total revenue function for farmers, mathematical derivations yield specific expressions for optimal trading quantities and risk hedging efficiency. The research findings show that, using an assumption of a maize price that is 3 CNY/kg, when farmers purchase around 6.22 precipitation put options they can achieve 67.9% risk hedging efficiency. This highlights the significant role of precipitation put options under specific conditions in reducing the risk of decreased maize yields due to reduced precipitation. However, in practical markets, variations in maize prices and the price change unit (λ) are inevitable. Through further analysis, this study reveals that as these factors change, the optimal trading quantity and hedging efficiency also undergo varying degrees of adjustment. The investigation lays a theoretical groundwork for the practical application and empirical validation of weather derivatives within China’s agrarian sector. However, the study underscores the necessity of a holistic approach to market dynamics to refine hedging strategies. Future decision making must integrate market fluctuations, and adopting transparent pricing mechanisms is critical for enhanced risk management and the advancement of sustainable agricultural practices.

Technical-Economic Analysis of Energy Efficiency Solutions for the Industrial Steam System of a Natural Gas Processing Plant

Steam, which is primarily employed as a heat transfer medium in process plants, is one of the most widely utilized energy carriers in the industrial sector. One of the factors that affects the cost of steam is how well the condensate collection, steam supply, and return systems of industrial steam systems perform. In a case study, the steam systems of a natural gas processing plant were simulated. The amount of demineralized water loss and, consequently, the identification of various solutions to improve the system were analyzed. The whole steam system was simulated using the MEASUR software platform (v 1.2), and by placing the operational information of the steam system, it was possible to create a baseline for the system, model saving solutions, and finally, provide a technical and economic evaluation of the solutions. Due to the high loss of steam condensate in the SRU steam system (more than 3000 kg per hour), solutions to improve the energy efficiency of the SRU steam system in the form of a maximum recovery of steam condensate (replacement of defective steam traps, redesign of the low-pressure condensate collection network, and high-pressure waste condensate collection) were evaluated with two price assumptions of current energy prices and real prices (the energy saving value of one cubic meter of natural gas is equal to 13 cents). The results show that, for current prices, the investment return period will be between 11.8 and 3.8 months. Moreover, in the main steam system of the refinery (unit 9200), there are three solutions: replacing and repairing defective steam traps, installing an expansion turbine instead of a steam pressure relief valve (PRV), and other solutions (including increasing boiler efficiency, automatic control of the boiler, and energy recovery boiler blowdown) under two price assumptions, the current and real prices of natural gas and demineralized water, were evaluated, and the modeling results show that the investment return period for each of the above solutions at the current prices is 10.2, 186, and 13.3, respectively. The investment return period is based on assuming real fuel and BFW prices are equal to 2.0, 37.6, and 1.7, respectively.

Technoeconomic Analysis for Green Hydrogen in Terms of Production, Compression, Transportation and Storage Considering the Australian Perspective

This current article discusses the technoeconomics (TE) of hydrogen generation, transportation, compression and storage in the Australian context. The TE analysis is important and a prerequisite for investment decisions. This study selected the Australian context due to its huge potential in green hydrogen, but the modelling is applicable to other parts of the world, adjusting the price of electricity and other utilities. The hydrogen generation using the most mature alkaline electrolysis (AEL) technique was selected in the current study. The results show that increasing temperature from 50 to 90 °C and decreasing pressure from 13 to 5 bar help improve electrolyser performance, though pressure has a minor effect. The selected range for performance parameters was based on the fundamental behaviour of water electrolysers supported with literature. The levelised cost of hydrogen (LCH2) was calculated for generation, compression, transportation and storage. However, the majority of the LCH2 was for generation, which was calculated based on CAPEX, OPEX, capital recovery factor, hydrogen production rate and capacity factor. The LCH2 in 2023 was calculated to be 9.6 USD/kgH2 using a base-case solar electricity price of 65–38 USD/MWh. This LCH2 is expected to decrease to 6.5 and 3.4 USD/kgH2 by 2030 and 2040, respectively. The current LCH2 using wind energy was calculated to be 1.9 USD/kgH2 lower than that of solar-based electricity. The LCH2 using standalone wind electricity was calculated to be USD 5.3 and USD 2.9 in 2030 and 2040, respectively. The LCH2 predicted using a solar and wind mix (SWM) was estimated to be USD 3.2 compared to USD 9.6 and USD 7.7 using standalone solar and wind. The LCH2 under the best case was predicted to be USD 3.9 and USD 2.1 compared to USD 6.5 and USD 3.4 under base-case solar PV in 2030 and 2040, respectively. The best case SWM offers 33% lower LCH2 in 2023, which leads to 37%, 39% and 42% lower LCH2 in 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively. The current results are overpredicted, especially compared with CSIRO, Australia, due to the higher assumption of the renewable electricity price. Currently, over two-thirds of the cost for the LCH2 is due to the price of electricity (i.e., wind and solar). Modelling suggests an overall reduction in the capital cost of AEL plants by about 50% in the 2030s. Due to the lower capacity factor (effective energy generation over maximum output) of renewable energy, especially for solar plants, a combined wind- and solar-based electrolysis plant was recommended, which can increase the capacity factor by at least 33%. Results also suggest that besides generation, at least an additional 1.5 USD/kgH2 for compression, transportation and storage is required.

Macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic first wave in the world

The paper seeks to identify the essential global-economic macro-shocks resulting from efforts by consumers, firms, or government policies to reduce social distancing, which caused a sharp temporary change in the world economy during the pandemic outbreak in the second quarter of 2020. The purpose is fulfilled using a simple two-period real-business cycle model. The observed reaction of the global economy in the second period of 2020 is measured by the deviation of the time series of GDP and its components, labor, labor income, and average labor product in the USA and EU from the log-quadratic trend. The model can replicate the observed economic response by reducing the total factor productivity, labor demand, and labor supply—no need to assume sticky prices. As a sudden drop in performance is supposed, followed by a modest recovery already in the following period, it is not assumed that the government would be able to avert it in time with fiscal or monetary policy. Moreover, the assumption of variable prices and supply-side shocks does not support such a policy.

A Displacement-Dependent Limit-Equilibrium Slice Method for Slope Stability Analysis

Displacement and factor of safety are two crucial pieces of information about slope stability, but the traditional limit-equilibrium slice method has a significant defect; that is, it cannot reflect slope displacement. In this paper, a displacement-dependent limit-equilibrium slice method is proposed based on the soil shear constitutive model and Morgenstern–Price assumption of interslice forces to establish the relationship between the factor of safety and displacement. In addition to the overall factor of safety, point factors of safety and point displacements can also be obtained using the proposed method to characterize the displacement-dependent slope stability. The point factor of safety and shear displacement of each soil slice calculated using the proposed method are slightly higher and smaller than those calculated by the modified displacement-dependent Janbu method. The iterative process of the proposed method is simpler and more stable than that of the modified displacement-dependent Janbu method. Calculation results of four examples show that the point factors of safety at the upper and lower ends of the slide mass are generally smaller than those at the middle part of the slip body, and the shear displacement of the soil slice near the slope top is generally larger than those at the other positions. The proposed method associates the factors of safety with slope displacements, which allows us to quantitatively assess the slope stability immediately in practice by monitoring the displacements of some key points on it.

The economics of public transport electrification: A case study from Victoria, Australia

We investigate the economic, climate and electricity market implications of public bus fleet electrification based on the Melbourne Metropolitan region. We employ a novel fleet-level analysis, under tariff-based least-cost depot charging to compare the total cost of ownership (TCO) over 12 years of battery electric vehicle (BEV) against diesel bus fleets in a transitioning power sector. We also estimate impacts on electricity demand and carbon emissions, across purchase years between 2022 and 2039. We find that while the upfront costs of BEV bus fleets are considerably higher than diesel, they are more economical to operate in the long run, although our calculations are sensitive to diesel price assumptions. Electricity prices only have a minor impact on the TCO of BEV buses. Using a power sector transition scenario that mirrors Australia's Glasgow (COP26) commitments of net-zero economy wide emissions by 2050, we find that purchasing a BEV fleet in 2022 (0.42 MtCO2e) results in 74% less operational greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than an equivalent diesel fleet (1.6 MtCO2e). If grid decarbonisation beyond 2022 would not proceed, BEV bus fleet emissions (at 2.03 MtCO2e) would be 27% higher than diesel. This suggests that an average 27% reduction of night-time grid emissions (over the next 12 years) is required for BEV buses to have lower emissions than diesel. One of our key policy recommendations is to co-optimise power and transport sector transitions by ensuring greater pass through of wholesale market pricing signals.

Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy

We evaluate the economic usefulness of oil price forecasts by means of conditional forecasting of five US macroeconomic indicators. First, we forecast oil prices using a mixed sampling frequency framework, where oil prices are driven by information available at high-frequency; and subsequently we proceed with our macroeconomic conditional forecasts. Overall, there is diminishing importance of oil price forecasts for inflation projections, whereas the reverse holds true for inflation expectations, industrial production and producers price index. An array of arguments is presented as to why this might be the case. Our findings remain robust to alternative forecasting frameworks and model specifications.

Open-source project feasibility tools for supporting development of the green ammonia value chain

Ammonia plays a vital role in feeding the world through fertilizer production, as well as having other industrial uses. However, current ammonia production processes rely heavily on fossil fuels, mostly natural gas, to generate hydrogen as a feedstock. There is an urgent need to re-design and decarbonise the production process to reduce greenhouse emissions and avoid dependence on volatile gas markets and a depleting resource base. Renewable energy driven electrolysis to generate hydrogen provides a viable pathway for producing carbon-free or green ammonia. However, a key challenge associated with producing green ammonia is managing low cost but highly variable wind and solar renewable energy generation for hydrogen electrolysis while maintaining reliable operation of the less flexible ammonia synthesis unit. To date, green ammonia production has only been demonstrated at pilot scale, and optimising plant configurations and scaling up production facilities is an urgent task. Existing feasibility studies have demonstrated the ability to model and cost green ammonia production pathways that can overcome the technical and economic challenges. However, these existing approaches are context specific, demonstrating the ability to model and cost green ammonia production for defined locations, with set configurations. In this paper we present a modelling framework that consolidates the array of configurations previously studied into a single framework that can be tailored to the location of interest. Our open-source green ammonia modelling and costing tool dynamically simulates the integration of renewable energy with a wide range of balancing power and storage options to meet the flexible demands of the green ammonia production process at hourly time resolution over a year or more. Unlike existing models, the open-source implementation of our tool allows it to be used by a potentially wide range of stakeholders to explore their own projects and help guide the upscaling of green ammonia as a pathway for decarbonisation. Using Gladstone in Australia as a case study, a 1 million tonne per annum (MMTPA) green ammonia plant is modelled and costed using price assumptions for major equipment in 2030 provided by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Using a hybrid (solar PV and wind) renewable energy source and Battery Energy Storage System as balancing technology, we estimate a levelized cost of ammonia (LCOA) between 0.69 and 0.92 USD kgNH3-1. While greater than historical ammonia production costs from natural gas, falling renewables costs and emission reduction imperatives suggest a major future role for green ammonia.

The economic value of photovoltaic performance loss mitigation in electricity spot markets

Photovoltaic (PV) performance is affected by reversible and irreversible losses. These can typically be mitigated through responsive and proactive operations and maintenance (O&M) activities. However, to generate profit, the cost of O&M must be lower than the value of the recovered electricity. This value depends both on the amount of recovered energy and on the electricity prices, which can vary significantly over time in spot markets. The present work investigates the impact of the electricity price variability on the PV profitability and on the related O&M activities in Italy, Portugal, and Spain. It is found that the PV revenues varied by 1.6 × to 1.8 × within the investigated countries in the last 5 years. Moreover, forecasts predict higher average prices in the current decade compared to the previous one. These will increase the future PV revenues by up to 60% by 2030 compared to their 2015–2020 mean values. These higher revenues will make more funds available for better maintenance and for higher quality components, potentially leading to even higher energy yield and profits. Linearly growing or constant price assumptions cannot fully reproduce these expected price trends. Furthermore, significant price fluctuations can lead to unexpected scenarios and alter the predictions.

Cost-Effectiveness, Burden of Disease and Budget Impact of Inclisiran: Dynamic Cohort Modelling of a Real-World Population with Cardiovascular Disease.

ObjectiveWe aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness, burden of disease and budget impact of inclisiran added to standard-of-care lipid-lowering therapy in the real-world secondary cardiovascular prevention population in Switzerland.MethodsAn open-cohort Markov model captured event risks by sex, age and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol based on epidemiological and real-world data. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction with add-on inclisiran was based on trial results and translated to meta-analysis-based relative risks of cardiovascular events. Unit costs for 2018 were based on publicly available sources, adopting a Swiss healthcare system perspective. Price assumptions of Swiss francs (CHF) 500 and CHF 3,000 per dose of inclisiran were evaluated, combined with uptake assumptions for burden of disease and budget impact. The assessment of cost-effectiveness used a discount rate of 3% per year. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and extensive scenario analyses.ResultsPatients treated with inclisiran gained a 0.291 qualityadjusted life-year at an incremental cost per QALY gained of CHF 21,107/228,040 (life-long time horizon, discount rate 3%) under the lower/higher price. Inclisiran prevented 1025 cardiovascular deaths, 3425 acute coronary syndrome episodes, and 1961 strokes in 48,823 patients ever treated during 10 years; the 5-year budget impact was CHF 49.3/573.4 million under the lower/higher price. Estimates were sensitive to calibration targets and treatment eligibility; burden of disease/budget impact results also to uptake. Limitations included uncertainties about model assumptions and the size and characteristics of the population modelled.ConclusionsInclisiran may be cost-effective at a willingness to pay of CHF 30,000 if priced at CHF 500; a threshold upwards of CHF 250,000 will be required if priced at CHF 3000. Inclisiran could enable important reductions in cardiovascular burden particularly under broader eligibility with a budget impact range from moderate to high depending on price.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40273-022-01152-8.

Product Quality, Promotion And Price Perception Of Purchasing Decisions (Study On Consumers Of Kopi Janji Jiwa Tembalang Semarang City)

The consequences of product quality, promotion, and price assumption to the purchase decision in Coffee Kopi Janji Jiwatembalang Semarang. Respondents wore non-random sampling illustration methods. This illustration is wearing Purposive Sampling method, there are also criteria used are consumers or customers of the lowest age of 15 years, minimun once tasted coffee Kopi Janji Jiwa Semarang and the last had arrived at Kopi Janji Jiwa Tembalang Semarang. Methods of collecting information by wearing questionnaires and have been tested for validity and reliability. In testing product quality variables, the promotional decameter price assumption to the researcher's purchase provisions put on multiple linear regression analysis. There are also results showing if the quality of the product, promotion and price assumptions have a positive and significant influence.

The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate.

The objective of this study is to explore the impact of commodity price volatility on the governments’ fiscal balance. Using a dynamic panel data model for 108 countries from 1993 to 2018, this study finds that governments’ fiscal balance deteriorates with commodity price volatility, especially for commodity-exporting economies. A one standard deviation increase in commodity price volatility leads to a reduction of approximately 0.04 units in the fiscal balance as a percentage of gross domestic product. Further, we examine the role of real interest rates in influencing the relationship between commodity price volatility and fiscal balance. The empirical results suggest that the negative impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance can be mitigated with a lower real interest rate. This implies under the sticky price assumption, an accommodative monetary policy could be effective in moderating the negative effect of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance.

Simulation-based decision-making system for optimal mine production plan selection

Price uncertainty is one of the major uncertainties in the life of mine (LOM) planning process which can have a decisive effect on the overall profitability. Today’s mine planning software tools provide block-sequencing optimisation for a given static price assumption that is then used as a basis of managerial decision-making process. This paper proposes a complementary approach to this by introducing a simulation-based decision-making tool that, with the help of simulation, seeks for the optimal mine plan when a managerially estimated price development with minimum and maximum boundaries is used as a data input for the given period. To demonstrate the approach, a realistic gold mine case study is presented with five alternative and technically feasible mine plans calculated in a static optimiser from a commercial mine planning software package. These mine planning scenarios are then subjected to price uncertainty in simulation with and without a price trend assumption to highlight the effect of price on the mine’s expected performance. Based on the results, we derive and demonstrate a simulation-based system that automates the matching of optimal mine plan with the managerial insight of long-term price development.

Oil Price Assumptions for Macroeconomic Policy

Oil Price Assumptions for Macroeconomic Policy

Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators for Eurozone and Greece: How Useful are the Oil Price Assumptions?

Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators for Eurozone and Greece: How Useful are the Oil Price Assumptions?

A combined optimization of the sizing and the energy management of an industrial multi-energy microgrid: Application to a harbour area

• Sizing and operation combined optimization is proposed for an industrial microgrid. • Multi-energy microgrid is studied, with electricity and hydrogen as energy vectors. • The proposed objective functions aim to maximize incomes while minimizing expenses. • Ways of valorisation are compared: self-consumption, electricity and hydrogen sale. • The sizing and economical results are sensitive to investment and price assumptions. The current evolution of technical and environmental regulations and the recent development of hydrogen mobility require technological breakthroughs in the industrial areas, such as in harbours. Thus, multi-energy microgrids integrating low-carbon energy sources, electrical and hydrogen loads and storage solutions have to be designed. To improve their economic viability, the microgrid components must be carefully sized and the energy must be distributed in the most cost-effective way at any time. So as to foster the expansion of multi-energy microgrids in industrial areas, we propose in this paper a two-level optimization for the energy management and the sizing, applied to an original multi-energy scenario considering electricity and hydrogen as energy vectors. The designed energy management optimization takes into account an objective of economic profitability and constraints related to the availability of the sources and storage solutions, their reliability and the costs. The sizing optimization aims to propose different solutions allowing the benefits to be maximized and the expenses to be minimized. One of the main contributions of the paper is to compare the possible ways of valorisation of the energy available in an industrial microgrid. The results show that the sale of hydrogen allows income to be increased, in addition to self-consumption and sale to the electrical grid, but the electrolyzer involves high investments costs. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is presented and shows that the investment costs of electrolyzer and battery and the hydrogen selling price are key points in the optimal design.

Study on coal to methanol of Arutmin coal

The Indonesian government has encouraged coal mining companies to expand into coal downstream industries. In response to this policy, PT. Arutmin Indonesia has conducted a pre-feasibility study on the construction of a coal-to-methanol plant. The plant was located in the Pulau Laut Utara Coal Terminal (NPLCT). The plant is designed to produce 3.0 million tons of methanol/year. The raw material is supplied from the Sarongga coal mine, about 5 km away from NPLCT. The coal-to-methanol process was simulated using ChemCad to solve chemical and energy problems. Based on heat & material balance simulation results, the plant requires coal of 6.0 million tons/year as a raw material. Air Product technology was chosen for coal gasification and Davy Technology for methanol synthesis. Air product gasifier requires lower oxygen to produce syngas than other technologies, thereby reducing oxygen production costs. The plant needs an investment cost of USD 3.0 billion. With the assumption of a methanol price of 311 USD/ton and 20 years of tax holiday incentives, the financial analysis results show that the construction of coal-to-methanol plant is financially feasible with an NPV value of 289.7 million USD and an IRR of 13.35%.