Volcanic Hazard Assessment Research Articles

Novel age constraints on offshore islets around Taiwan with implications for the Northern Taiwan Volcanic Zone

Determining the exact age of volcanic activity in the Northern Taiwan Volcanic Zone (NTVZ) is essential for comprehending Taiwan's tectonic evolution. The timing and duration of the volcanic processes that formed the NTVZ remain uncertain despite the availability of geochronological, geochemical, and geophysical data. While extensive efforts have been directed towards investigating the age of the Tatun Volcanic Group, the primary feature of the NTVZ, many other aspects require further examination. This study concentrates on two offshore islets in the northern region of the NTVZ. We present new 40Ar/39Ar ages of 0.252 ± 0.018 Ma for a lava flow, representing an early stage of volcanic activity, and 0.118 ± 0.012 Ma for a dike, representing the latest stage of volcanic activity around Pengjia Islet. A sample collected from Mianhua Islet did not yield a reasonable age due to high uncertainty, likely attributable to young and low radiogenic argon. Field observations support the interpretation that volcanic activity on both islets is considerably younger than previously estimated. This study corroborates the hypothesis from geophysical studies that submarine NTVZ features to record a potentially active magmatic reservoir offshore of northern Taiwan. By refining our understanding of spatio-temporal patterns in volcanic activity, this study contributes to volcanic hazard assessment in Taiwan and surrounding areas.

Probabilistic hazard analyses for a small island: methods for quantifying tephra fall hazard and appraising possible impacts on Ascension Island

Proximal to the source, tephra fall can cause severe disruption, and populations of small volcanically active islands can be particularly susceptible. Volcanic hazard assessments draw on data from past events generated from historical observations and the geological record. However, on small volcanic islands, many eruptive deposits are under-represented or missing due to the bulk of tephra being deposited offshore and high erosion rates from weather and landslides. Ascension Island is such an island located in the South Atlantic, with geological evidence of mafic and felsic explosive volcanism. Limited tephra preservation makes it difficult to correlate explosive eruption deposits and constrains the frequency or magnitude of past eruptions. We therefore combined knowledge from the geological record together with eruptions from the analogous São Miguel island, Azores, to probabilistically model a range of possible future explosive eruption scenarios. We simulated felsic events from a single vent in the east of the island, and, as mafic volcanism has largely occurred from monogenetic vents, we accounted for uncertainty in future vent location by using a grid of equally probable source locations within the areas of most recent eruptive activity. We investigated the hazards and some potential impacts of short-lived explosive events where tephra fall deposits could cause significant damage and our results provide probabilities of tephra fall loads from modelled events exceeding threshold values for potential damage. For basaltic events with 6–10 km plume heights, we found a 50% probability that tephra fallout across the west side of the island would impact roads and the airport during a single explosive event, and if roofs cannot be cleared, three modelled explosive phases produced tephra loads that may be sufficient to cause roof collapse (≥ 100 kg m−2). For trachytic events, our results show a 50% probability of loads of 2–12 kg m−2 for a plume height of 6 km increasing to 898–3167 kg m−2 for a plume height of 19 km. Our results can assist in raising awareness of the potential impacts of tephra fall from short-lived explosive events on small islands.

VOLCANBOX: a software platform for Volcanic Hazard Assessment

Volcanic eruptions have an intrinsic multi-hazard nature, in which a variety of volcanic products (lava flows, fallout, lahars, and pyroclastic flows) and associated hazards (seismic shocks, landslides, tsunamis, or floods) may interact and impact sequentially. Volcanic hazard assessment relies on probabilistic approaches based on the past eruptive history, from which scientists identify eruptive scenarios and their expected recurrence. However, not enough attempts have yet been made to address volcanic hazard assessment in a systematic way, based on principles that may be equally applicable to different volcanoes and volcanic zones regardless of their particular nature. Hence, we present VOLCANBOX, a new multiplatform (GNU/Linux, MacOS, Windows) system designed to conduct long-and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and risk analysis in a systematic and rational manner, aimed at reducing volcanic risk by anticipating future eruptions. VOLCANBOX includes several sets of software tools designed to evaluate long and short-term volcanic hazards, to conduct vulnerability analysis, and to assist decision-makers during the management of a volcanic crisis. VOLCANBOX can be implemented before an emergency, in order to identify optimum mitigating actions and how these may have to be adapted as new information is obtained. VOLCANBOX is aimed at experts in volcanic hazard and risk assessment and management and is designed to facilitate the interaction and cooperation between scientists, policy makers and civil protection agencies to anticipate volcanic disasters in a timely manner, by quantifying volcanic hazards, understanding volcanic unrest, forecasting volcanic eruptions, and identifying the most probable scenarios in a simple and clear manner.

Statistical analysis of the ground deformation of Vulcanian explosions at Sakurajima volcano, Japan

The forecast of pulsatory explosions during volcanic unrest periods is an essential issue for the assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards. Although various precursors are detectable through geophysical and geochemical monitoring, difficulties remain in precisely constraining possible scenarios. A probabilistic approach is effective in assessing risk while considering various uncertainties. Sakurajima volcano characterized by frequent Vulcanian activity is one of the suitable fields for the probabilistic forecast of pulsatory explosions. Their inflation-deflation patterns of ground deformation related to Vulcanian explosions are useful for evaluating the imminence and size of the next event. The large database obtained from its vigorous activity can contribute to statistical analysis. In this study, aiming the probabilistic forecast of the timing and size of explosions, we investigated the duration of inflation and volume changes at the pressure source using strain records of over 5000 events of Sakurajima volcano. Then, a stochastic model was estimated to explain the distribution of these events. The log-logistic distribution was found to be an appropriate model for data distribution, indicating the presence of competing processes, such as pressurization and depressurization, in the conduit. The model parameters of the log-logistic distribution temporally fluctuated reflecting the volcanic activity, especially increasing the magma supply from a deep region. We also suggested a methodology to constrain the probabilities of the likely timing and size of an imminent explosion using real-time strain monitoring and an estimated model distribution. Although some improvements would be needed for practical forecasting, our approach could be useful in predicting possible ash hazards.

Limited arc magmatism and seismicity due to extensive mantle wedge serpentinization in the Makran subduction zone

Subduction processes usually involve extensive seismicity and create voluminous magmatic arcs by mantle wedge melting caused by dehydration of the subducting slab, but the Makran subduction zone has anomalously low seismicity and magmatism. Here we explain these anomalous features by 60–65% serpentinization in the peridotitic shallow mantle wedge based on our new integrated seismic, magnetic, gravity and isostatic model across the Makran subduction zone. The low-angle, slow Makran subduction provides ample time for the slab to release sufficient amounts of fluids for creating a large volume of rheologically weak serpentinite. This reduces seismicity by lowering the friction between the slab and surrounding rocks. Further, very little fluid is left in the slab when it reaches the melting depth, which explains the limited arc magmatism. Around 100 km depth, the subduction switches from low-angle to almost vertical. Our model demonstrates the combined effects of subduction rate and dip on mantle serpentinization with implication for assessment of seismic and volcanic hazards in subduction systems.

Cosmogenic 3He chronology of postglacial lava flows at Mt Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand

Abstract. Accurate volcanic hazard assessments rely on a detailed understanding of the timing of past eruptions. While radiometric methods like 40Ar/39Ar or K/Ar are by far the most conventional lava flow dating tools, their low resolution for young (<20 ka) deposits interferes with the development of precise chronologies of recent effusive activity on most volcanoes. Mt Ruapehu (Aotearoa / New Zealand) has produced many lava flows throughout its history, but the precise timing of many recent eruptions remains largely unknown. In this study, we use cosmogenic 3He exposure dating to provide 23 eruption ages of young lava flows at Ruapehu. We then compare our results with existing 40Ar/39Ar and paleomagnetic constraints, highlighting the value of cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating in refining recent eruptive chronologies. Of the 23 sampled flows, 16 provided robust eruption ages (5 %–20 % internal 2σ; n≥3) between ca. 20 and 8 ka, except for one lava flow that erupted at around 43 ka, and their age distribution indicates that, during the last 20 kyr, effusive activity at Ruapehu peaked at 17–12 ka and at 9–7.5 ka. Nearly identical eruption ages of lavas located in different flanks of the volcanic edifice suggest concurrent activity from multiple vents during relatively short time intervals (0–2 kyr) at around 13, 10, and 8 ka. We analysed four individual lava flows previously dated by 40Ar/39Ar, two of which yield eruption ages older than the older limit of the 2σ interval of the radiometric dates, but the good clustering of individual samples from our sites suggests that our results better represent the real eruption age of these flows. Our 3He-based chronology shows excellent agreement with paleomagnetic constraints, suggesting that production rate uncertainties are unlikely to impact the accuracy of our eruption ages. This study demonstrates how cosmogenic nuclide dating can provide greater detail on the recent effusive chronology of stratovolcanoes, helping to resolve the low resolution of and difficulty in applying radiometric dating methods to young lava flows.

The Andean Southern Volcanic Zone: a review on the legacy of the latest volcanic eruptions

The Andean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) concentrates many of the most active volcanoes of the Andean continental arc, as well as the region’s most recent and impactful volcanic eruptions. In this contribution, we briefly revise the general characteristics of the SVZ volcanism and provide a synthesis of the scientific findings related to the latest volcanic eruptions (430 peer-reviewed publications with over 9,000 citations, with large-magnitude (VEI 4-5) eruptions being the most studied. Our study shows that SVZ research has been primarily focused on environmental and atmospheric impacts (29%), eruption descriptions and physical volcanology (20%), volcanic hazard and risk assessments (15%), and other investigations complementary to volcanology. Whereas the least silicic eruptions (e.g., Llaima 2008-2009 and Villarrica 2015) shed light on magma replenishment and degassing dynamics controlling eruption styles, intermediate eruptions (andesitic-dacitic) offered clues on either rapid or slow eruption initiation, with relevant findings on phreatic-to-magmatic style transitions and eruption triggering mechanisms. On the other hand, silicic (i.e., rhyolite-rhyodacite) eruptions provided unique observations on rapid magma ascent, high-rate magma extrusion, rheology, fragmentation processes, and style transitions. These recent eruptions have also inspired a new generation of tephrochronological, tephrostratigraphical, and physical volcanology studies, aimed at assessing the long-term (kyr-scale) evolution of the volcanic systems and their associated hazards. We debate how the knowledge gained from research and the long-term human coexistence with volcanoes are relevant to reducing volcanic risk in the SVZ. Finally, we discuss how challenges and opportunities emerging from other disciplines can complement our understanding of volcanism in this active region.

A multi-methodological approach to record dynamics and timescales of the plumbing system of Zaro (Ischia Island, Italy)

Determining the time spans of processes related to the assembly of eruptible magma at active volcanoes is fundamental to understand magma chamber dynamics and assess volcanic hazard. This information can be recorded in the chemical zoning of crystals. Nevertheless, this kind of study is still poorly employed for the active volcanoes of the Neapolitan area (Southern Italy), in particular, for Ischia island where the risk is extremely high and this information can provide the basis for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. For these reasons, we acquired chemical composition on clinopyroxene crystals erupted at Ischia during the Zaro eruption (6.6 ± 2.2 ka) and performed numerical simulations of the input of mafic magma into a trachytic reservoir, in order to investigate various aspects of pre-eruptive dynamics occurring at different timescales. This event emplaced a ~ 0.1 km3 lava complex, in which the main trachytic lava flows host abundant mafic to felsic enclaves. Previous petrological investigation suggested that mafic magma(s) mixed/mingled with a trachytic one, before the eruption. In this work, the clinopyroxene zoning patterns depict the growth of crystals in different magmatic environments, recording sequential changes occurred in the plumbing system before the eruption. The evolution of the plumbing system involved a hierarchy of timescales: a few hours for magma mingling caused by mafic recharge(s) and likely occurred multiple times over a decade during which a dominant magmatic environment was sustained before the eruption. Such timescales must be considered in volcanic hazard assessment at Ischia and similar active volcanoes in densely populated areas.

Sulfur Impurities: The Overlooked Process in Volcanic Hazard Assessment

One of the most intriguing questions of modern volcanology is the inception of an eruption. Despite efforts to detect premonitory signals, numerous unpredicted eruptions have occurred recently. It has been suggested that these unpredicted eruptions might be explained by viscosity variations in elemental sulfur accumulated within the hydrothermal systems present in several volcanic settings under the influence of organics, hydrocarbons, hydrogen sulfide, halogens, and ammonia. Changes in impure sulfur viscosity are more complex than those in pure S, invoked decades ago to trigger eruptions by system sealing in volcanoes hosting a crater lake. Growing evidence suggests that sulfur accumulation is a common process, not restricted to crater lakes. Moreover, both types and amounts of gas species released at the surface, critical for volcano monitoring, would be altered, following chemical reactions involving impure S, invalidating signals used to issue alerts. Impure sulfur behavior may explain puzzling degassing and contrasting signals reported at volcanoes and restless calderas worldwide, with implications for hazard assessment and volcanic-risk-mitigation strategies.

Modeling SO2 dispersion from future eruptions in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Auckland city (pop. 1.7 M) is Aotearoa New Zealand’s largest city and an important economic hub. The city is built upon the active intraplate basaltic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). An AVF eruption would cause considerable impacts. An important component of volcanic risk management is assessing the likely volcanic hazards to help inform emergency planning and other preparedness activities. Previous volcanic hazard assessments for the AVF, particularly those for emergency planning scenarios, have modeled multiple volcanic hazards including lava flows, pyroclastic density currents, ballistic projectiles and tephra fall. Despite volcanic gas being an important and impactful hazard from intraplate basaltic field eruptions, there has been limited consideration of volcanic gas in AVF hazard assessment to date. This project is one of the first to quantitatively assess potential volcanic gas hazards for an explosive eruption scenario. For basaltic volcanism, sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas is typically the most consequential volcanic gas emitted. The aim of this exploratory study was to model SO2 dispersion from a high impact eruption during weather conditions conducive to high ground level pollutant concentrations. Since ground level SO2 concentrations are influenced by complex wind patterns resulting from interactions of locally driven flow circulations and topographically influenced weather, we modeled SO2 dispersion using the HYSPLIT model, a state-of-the art hybrid Eulerian and Lagrangian dispersion model widely used for volcanic gases, using high-resolution meteorological forcing fields given by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Modeled air parcel trajectories and ground level SO2 concentrations illustrate the effect of the converging sea breeze winds on SO2 dispersion. Under worst-case dispersion conditions, extensive areas of up to hundreds of square kilometers to the north and northwest of the eruption location would exceed New Zealand short-term (24 h) air quality standards and guidelines for SO2, indicating heightened health risks to downwind communities. Using this numerical modeling approach, this work presents a methodology for future applications to other AVF eruption scenarios, with a wider range of meteorological conditions that can help in exploring consequences for health services such as anticipated emergency department respiratory admissions.

Exploiting PlanetScope Imagery for Volcanic Deposits Mapping

During explosive eruptions, tephra fallout represents one of the main volcanic hazards and can be extremely dangerous for air traffic, infrastructures, and human health. Here, we present a new technique aimed at identifying the area covered by tephra after an explosive event, based on processing PlanetScope imagery. We estimate the mean reflectance values of the visible (RGB) and near infrared (NIR) bands, analyzing pre- and post-eruptive data in specific areas and introducing a new index, which we call the ‘Tephra Fallout Index (TFI)’. We use the Google Earth Engine computing platform and define a threshold for the TFI of different eruptive events to distinguish the areas affected by the tephra fallout and quantify the surface coverage density. We apply our technique to the eruptive events occurring in 2021 at Mt. Etna (Italy), which mainly involved the eastern flank of the volcano, sometimes two or three times within a day, making field surveys difficult. Whenever possible, we compare our results with field data and find an optimal match. This work could have important implications for the identification and quantification of short-term volcanic hazard assessments in near real-time during a volcanic eruption, but also for the mapping of other hazardous events worldwide.

Revisiting the Holocene tephrochronology of northwestern Argentina: Insights from geochemical characterization of the tephras from the Tafí valley

In the southernmost sector of the Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ), spanning from 23° to 28°S, there is an estimated count of 30–40 potentially active volcanoes. Due to its remote location, the primary volcanic threat in this area during explosive eruptions is the dispersal and fallout of tephra. Among various approaches, tephrochronological studies have proven to be the most effective in compiling a comprehensive record of recent explosive eruptions in this region. The intermontane valleys nestled at the eastern foothills of the Andes, situated around 200–300 km from the volcanic arc, harbor a Holocene stratigraphic record containing multiple layers of tephra. These layers are evidence of the recurrence of substantial volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) during recent times, particularly within the last 10,000 years. Improving the tephrochronological knowledge of the southernmost edge of the CVZ constitutes a crucial initial step in evaluating the ash-fall hazard of this region. In this context, the Tafí valley emerges as a prominent candidate for serving as a dependable tephrochronological "anchor point" for regional correlations. Its strength lies in its conspicuous record of Holocene tephras and its well-documented morpho-stratigraphic setting, which has been rigorously constrained by absolute age dating. Despite these advantages, some of the Holocene tephras found within Tafí valley remain uncharacterized in terms of both glass shard and mineral geochemistry. This limitation has consequently hindered their utility in facilitating regional correlations. Thus, we present the glass shard and mineral composition of these uncharacterized Holocene tephras previously identified within Tafí valley. Our findings have not only enhanced regional correlations beyond the Tafí valley but have also provided more precise source constraints. Ultimately, our work represents an upgrade of the Holocene tephrochronological framework of Northwestern Argentina and a stride toward a more reliable assessment of volcanic hazard and risk within the region.

Review of bomb and ash flows: Genesis and case studies of a subset of block and ash flow deposits

Pyroclastic density currents with an abundance of cauliflower-shaped bombs are an uncommon type of deposit, called bomb and ash flow (BoAF) deposits in several papers. Although they are similar to block and ash flow (BAF) deposits (e.g., rich in juvenile blocks and breadcrusted bombs), they are often related to eruptions of mafic to intermediate magmas. In the current study, we analyze and compare historical and prehistorical BoAF-generating eruptions at Asama and Aso (Japan), Mayon (Philippines), Mt. Spurr (United States), Fuego (Guatemala), Arenal (Costa Rica), Cotopaxi and Tungurahua (Ecuador), and Láscar and Tilocálar volcanoes (Chile). Our review indicates that BoAFs show a substantial contribution of juvenile rounded material but with different rheologies and fragmentation mechanisms. This juvenile material is typically basaltic or andesitic, as it is more susceptible to form volcanic bombs with scoriaceous cauliflower textures. Thus, BoAFs could be a subset of the BAF deposits. The study and recognition of this type of deposit in volcanic sequences could be misinterpreted as a ballistic bomb deposit or even a hot bomb-rich lahar deposit, therefore, its appropriate interpretation is fundamental for volcanic hazard assessment.

Feeders vs arrested dikes: A case study from the Younger Stampar eruption in Iceland

Understanding the mechanical conditions for dike arrest and associated surface deformation or, alternatively, dike propagation to the surface to supply magma to an eruption, is of fundamental importance for volcanology in general and for volcanic hazards in particular. Here we present the results of a study of an outcrop located in the Reykjanes Peninsula, SW Iceland, where one dike became arrested only 5 m below the surface of an active volcanic system, without inducing any brittle deformation at the surface. In the same outcrop, at a distance of 30 m, a feeder dike is exposed. Both dikes are associated with the Younger Stampar eruption (1210–1240 CE). We reconstructed a high-resolution 3D model, through drone surveys and Structure from Motion (SfM) techniques, on which we collected detailed structural data combined with field surveys. These data, integrated with petrographic and geochemical analyses, became inputs to Finite Element Method (FEM) numerical models, made using the COMSOL Multiphysics® software. Our results indicate that compression exerted by the intrusion of the feeder dike (inferred to have been emplaced first) can explain the arrest of the second dike and the absence of induced brittle deformation even if the dike tip is only 5 m below the surface. Furthermore, the contrasting mechanical properties of the layers that constitute the outcrop, with alternating stiff lavas and compliant tuffs, raise (concentrate) the compressive stresses in the lava flows ahead of the second dike, thereby encouraging its arrest. Both the dikes are basaltic, but the earlier emplaced feeder dike is crystal poor and slightly more evolved than the later emplaced arrested dike. The results throw a new light on the conditions for dike arrest and (the lack of) dike-induced brittle deformation at very shallow depths in active rift zones, with important implications for volcanic-hazard assessments.

Frontiers of thermobarometry: GAIA, a novel Deep Learning-based tool for volcano plumbing systems

The anatomy of the plumbing system of active volcanoes is fundamental to understand how magma is stored and channeled to the surface. Reliable geothermobarometric estimates are, therefore, critical to assess the depths and temperatures of the complex system of magmatic reservoirs that form a volcano apparatus. Here, we developed a novel Machine Learning approach (named GAIA, Geo Artificial Intelligence thermobArometry) based upon Feedforward Neural Networks to estimate P-T conditions of magma (clinopyroxene) storage and migration within the crust. Our Feedforward Neural Network method applied to clinopyroxene compositions yields better uncertainties (Root-Mean-Square Error and R2 score) than previous Machine Learning methods and set the basis for a novel generation of reliable geothermobarometers, which extends beyond the paradigm associated to crystal-liquid equilibrium. Also, the bootstrap procedure, inherent to the Feedforward Neural Network architecture, permits to perform a rigorous assessment of the P-T uncertainty associated to each clinopyroxene composition, as opposed to the Root-Mean-Square Error representing the P-T uncertainty of whole set of clinopyroxene compositions.As a test, we applied GAIA to assess P-T conditions of five Italian volcanoes (Somma-Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, Etna, Stromboli, Volcano), which are among the most dangerous volcanic centres in Europe. The results on the depths of the plumbing systems are in excellent agreement with those obtained with independent geophysical and geodetic surveys, and provide further evidence to current models of volcano plumbing systems consisting of physically-separated reservoirs interconnected by a network of conduits channelling magma en route to the surface. The results on the magma (clinopyroxene crystallization) temperatures are also in agreement with other estimates, albeit obtained considering - mainly but not only - thermodynamically-based clinopyroxene-liquid geothermometers.GAIA can set robust estimates of magma storage, segregation, and ascent conditions within the plumbing system of active volcanoes, helping to unravel P-T variations, if any, during their eruptive history and providing robust clues to volcanic hazard assessment.

Pliocene-to-Holocene volcano-tectonic activity on Mohéli Island (Comoros archipelago) constrained by new K[sbnd]Ar ages

The volcanism of the Comoros archipelago (from west to east: Grande Comore, Mohéli, Anjouan, and Mayotte islands) has been under renewed scientific scrutiny since the eruption of a new submarine volcanic edifice (Fani Maoré) which begun in May 2018 east of Mayotte. West of Mayotte, Mohéli island has received little attention from the geoscience community, despite its largely uneroded volcanic landscapes suggesting a recent activity that has not been dated. Here we address this gap in knowledge by applying KAr geochronology on groundmass and major-trace element analyses to subaerial and submarine rocks, in an attempt to reconstruct the volcano-tectonic and geochemical evolution of Mohéli. Our results show that Mohéli's volcano-tectonic evolution proceeded in two constructional stages, including a primary edification along a N070°E axis from before ca. 3.8 Ma to ca. 3 Ma (Stage 1), and a second construction along a N110°E ridge shaping the present-day island since ca. 2 Ma (Stage 2). The two stages were separated by an increased subsidence (≥0.2 mm/yr) that drowned a large part of the N070°E primary edifice. The two identified volcano-tectonic stages are reflected also in the geochemical evolution of emitted magmas, which were moderately silica-undersaturated in Stage 1 and moderately to highly silica-undersaturated in Stage 2. Silica undersaturation increases with time up to the olivine melilitite field, together with enrichments in Ca, P, and incompatible trace elements, suggesting the increasing contribution of a metasomatized mantle in melts. The coeval changes of construction orientations and magmas compositions of Mohéli suggest a modification in the tectonics of the Comoros related to magmatism at about 2 Ma. The most recent volcanic morphology investigated is an olivine nephelinite lava flow on the north coast of the island dated at 8 ± 2 ka. This finding of Holocene volcanism on Mohéli implies that the entire Comoros archipelago should be considered as an active zone in any volcanic hazard assessment. The melilite-bearing rocks of Mohéli share geochemical similarities with those of Mayotte and of the Cenozoic volcanic provinces of Madagascar, further pointing to similar melting sources and magmatic processes over the Mozambique channel.

Probabilistic volcanic mass flow hazard assessment using statistical surrogates of deterministic simulations

Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments require (1) an identification of the hazardous volcanic source; (2) estimation of the magnitude-frequency relationship for the volcanic process; (3) quantification of the dependence of hazard on magnitude and external conditions; and (4) estimation of hazard exceedance from the magnitude-frequency and hazard intensity relationship. For volcanic mass flows, quantification of the hazard is typically undertaken through the use of computationally expensive mass flow simulators. However, this computational expense restricts the number of samples that can be used to produce a probabilistic assessment and limits the ability to rapidly update hazard assessments in response to changing source probabilities. We develop an alternate approach to defining hazard intensity through a surrogate model that provides a continuous estimate of simulation outputs at negligible computational expense, demonstrated through a probabilistic hazard assessment of dome collapse (block-and-ash) flows at Taranaki volcano, New Zealand. A Gaussian Process emulator trained on a database of simulations is used as the surrogate model of hazard intensity across the input space of possible dome collapse volumes and configurations, which is then sampled using a volume-frequency relationship of dome collapse flows. The demonstrated technique is a tractable solution to the problem of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment, with the surrogates providing a good approximation of the simulator, and is generally applicable to volcanic hazard and geo-hazard assessments that are limited by the demands of numerical simulations and changing source probabilities.

Multi-method constraints on the age and timescale of silicic small-volume eruptions of Puketerata Volcanic Complex, Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Accurate dating of young eruptions from explosive volcanoes is essential for forecasting future eruptions and for defining the hazardscape of volcanic fields. However, precise dating of Quaternary eruptions is often challenging due to limited number of applicable dating methods or lack of datable eruptive phases. Moreover, small volume eruptions (e.g., monogenetic type), despite their significance on regional scale, have traditionally deserved less attention than their large volume counterparts. Puketerata is a maar-lava dome complex in the central Taupō Volcanic Zone (New Zealand), encompassing mafic and silicic phreatomagmatic eruptions with well-preserved pyroclastic deposits sourced from closely spaced vents. Its most recent activity is estimated to ca. 16 ka based on medial and distal stratigraphic surveys. Here, we carried out two independent age determinations and an additional paleomagnetic analysis on the volcanic succession of the Puketerata maar-lava dome complex with an aim to unravel the timing of volcanic activity. Combined U-Th disequilibrium and (U-Th)/He dating of zircon from two lava domes yielded eruption ages of 11.3 ± 2.6 ka and 11.3 ± 1.7 ka, which are concordant with the radiocarbon ages of 11.3–11.7 ka obtained on charcoal from the base of the pyroclastic sequence. Paleomagnetic data on the lavas from the two lava domes suggest at least ~ 100 years difference between their emplacements. Our geochronological results and new stratigraphic observations suggest that the volcanic/magmatic history of the Puketerata is complex with multiple eruptions within a small, confined area, where the most recent eruptions occurred only at ca. 11.5 ka, which is significantly younger than previously thought. This provides an additional datum for volcanic hazards assessment and stratigraphic correlations in New Zealand.Graphical

Zircon age spectra to quantify magma evolution

Abstract The past decades have seen tremendous advances in analytical capabilities regarding the sensitivity, spatial selectivity, and instrumental precision of U-Th-Pb zircon geochronology. Along with improved zircon pretreatment to mitigate the effects of Pb-loss, these advancements have resulted in the emergence of U-Th-Pb dating as the most widely used geochronometer. In parallel, it became increasingly obvious that modern analytical techniques can resolve zircon age dispersal beyond instrumental uncertainties and that this dispersion cannot be attributed to Pb-loss or inheritance. Hence, there is a pressing need to refine statistical procedures for displaying and interpreting dispersed age data from volcanic and plutonic rocks, where zircon ages were traditionally assigned to the quasi-instantaneous events of eruption and magma emplacement, respectively. The ability to resolve zircon age spectra, which often range over timescales of 103–106 years, also offers new opportunities to monitor magmatic processes, because zircon crystallization directly relates to the temperature and composition of its host melt. This relation is, at least for typical subalkaline melt compositions, well calibrated by multiple zircon saturation experiments, although absolute saturation temperatures derived from them can vary by tens of degrees. Moreover, zircon saturation thermometry is supported by the trace element and isotopic inventory of zircon, which records the thermochemical and compositional evolution of melts at high fidelity. Here, we first review the properties of true zircon age spectra that are defined by a statistically robust overdispersion relative to analytical uncertainties. Secondly, we evaluate existing models and present new models that aim to quantitatively translate the properties of zircon age spectra into parameters controlling the longevity and thermal evolution of crustal magma bodies such as magma recharge flux and duration. These developing approaches, which aspire to capture all processes that affect the formation and dispersal of zircon in dynamic crustal magma systems, have the potential to foster an improved understanding of magmatism with implications for volcanic hazard assessment, geothermal energy uses, and the origins of ore deposits.

Magnetotelluric investigations at Andean volcanoes: Partial melt or saline magmatic fluids?

Knowledge of the architecture of active magmatic systems is important for both volcanic hazard assessment and evaluating potential geothermal energy production and metals recovery from magmatic fluids. Increasingly, magmatic systems are imaged using the magnetotelluric method to detect electrically conductive partial melt and/or saline magmatic fluid reservoirs. We review recent magnetotelluric studies at eight Andean volcanoes, revealing electrical conductivity anomalies with variable magnitudes and locations. Six of the studied volcanoes exhibit three main electrical conductivity anomalies, located at shallow (<3 km), intermediate (≈5 km), and deep (>10 km) depths. The shallow anomalies are often thin and laterally extensive, consistent with clay cap alteration layers, while the deep anomalies are generally interpreted as partial melt reservoirs. The intermediate depth anomalies, although also often attributed to partial melt, have less clear origins. By analysing laboratory-derived electrical conductivity relationships, we show that the intermediate depth anomalies are generally most consistent with saline magmatic fluids stored in porous rock. However, other geophysical and petrological data suggest that localised partial melt also exists at intermediate depths. Therefore, the intermediate depth anomalies likely represent mixed melt and saline magmatic fluid systems, such as those responsible for forming magmatic-hydrothermal alteration zones and copper porphyry deposits. At individual volcanoes, refining the generalised three layer model proposed here by using additional geophysical or petrological data is key to constraining the resources and/or hazard potential of the magmatic system.