Assessment Of Climate Policies Research Articles

A novel approach to work towards gender-responsive urban climate policy

In collaboration with women’s organizations in India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa, an approach for a novel gender assessment of urban climate policies was developed and tested. The Gender Assessment and Monitoring of Mitigation and Adaptation (GAMMA) methodology allows for an in-depth analysis of the institutional framework and the mitigation and adaptation policies of cities. Its application by the women’s organizations in 14 pilot cities led to policy recommendations on how to integrate gender equality into urban mitigation and adaptation actions. The results of a monitoring exercise show that the project has made a significant step forward in raising awareness of gender issues and gender-responsive action at the urban level. It provides civil society organizations working on climate justice with a tool to push local governments to work towards low-carbon, resilient, gender-just and inclusive cities. It can also be used by local governments for self-assessment.

Polish climate policy in the opinion of young Poles - a pilot survey

As established in the Europe 2020 Strategy and the European Green Deal, combating climate change is one of the central elements of the European Union’s policy. As a member, Poland is obliged to develop and implement climate policy in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions so climate neutrality can be achieved by 2050. In the context of low political priority for the Polish government, the study aims to identify the level of awareness, perceptions, and attitudes of young Poles towards climate change, as well as their assessment of climate policy. To achieve this aim, a non-random sampling pilot survey was conducted among young Poles in spring 2022, using an electronic questionnaire made available via social media. While the results show respondents’ awareness of and rather high interest in the threats posed by climate change, in-depth knowledge of climate change, climate policy, and its socio-economic implications is lacking. The progress in and effectiveness of climate policy in Poland is rather assessed negatively. Based on the results, key directions for future actions are suggested for the young generation to become a force in creating a more effective climate policy.

Responsible innovation in CDR: designing sustainable national Greenhouse Gas Removal policies in a fragmented and polycentric governance system

In the assessment of climate policies, the social sciences are sometimes assigned a restricted instrumental role, focused on understanding and mitigating social and political “constraints” seen to impede the fullest achievement of a particular technological imaginary. The work presented in this paper draws on an alternative intellectual tradition, in which the technical, social and political dimensions of the problem are seen as closely intertwined, shaped by values and interests specific to each jurisdiction. The Greenhouse Gas Removal Instruments and Policies Project (GRIP), applied this approach to the design of policies for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the United Kingdom. GRIP explored what policy incentives and pathways might improve the societal assessment of different CDR technologies for further development and potential deployment. Here we analyze the views of UK policy actors questioned on different CDR options, and outline policy pathways to incentivize the research and demonstration processes necessary to determine what role CDR techniques should play in climate policy. We conclude by discussing recent policy developments in the UK, and the contours of a research agenda capable of supporting a responsible evaluation of CDR options.

Spillovers and connectedness among climate policy uncertainty, energy, green bond and carbon markets: A global perspective

Extreme weather anomalies, energy crisis and environmental degradation have garnered significant attention in the context of sustainable development. This paper analyses the spillovers among climate policy uncertainty (CPU), energy prices, green bond index, and carbon emission trading price with quantile connectedness approach. The results suggest that connectedness among variables is higher at the extreme quantiles than the median quantile, and the connectedness would strengthen during international events, such as the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, COVID-19 epidemic, and Russian-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, the dynamic spillover analysis further demonstrates that CPU consistently acts as the risk receiver and passively bears influence from other markets. The constructed theoretical mechanism provides valuable insights for a comprehensive assessment of climate policy, facilitating the orderly functioning of energy, green finance and carbon markets, and sustainable investment. Thus, the paper concludes that the significant spillover from energy, green bond and carbon markets serve as useful indicators for judging and predicting uncertainties related to climate policy.

Measuring the Circularity and Impact Reduction Potential of Post-Industrial and Post-Consumer Recycled Plastics

Post-industrial recycling (PIR) and post-consumer recycling (PCR) are measures used to sustain resources by improving material circularity and sustainability. Currently, circularity is mainly measured as the degree of reutilization of a material from 0 to 100% at the product or company level. This measure fails to assess the resource usage over multiple product life cycles. Therefore, we propose to assess circularity as (i) the frequency of resource use in products (effective circularity, eC), and as (ii) a vehicle to reduce environmental impacts (environmentally efficient circularity, eeC). Additionally, to compare the environmental impacts of using recycled materials from PIR or PCR, we analyze their impact reduction potential (IRP), indicating the environmental benefits of recycling in relation to virgin material submitted to the market. We demonstrate the suggested indicators for a case study material: polypropylene. For this polymer type, the eC ranges between 0.93 and 9.08 uses of the resource, on average, depending on collection, sorting, and recycling rates. Likewise, the eeC ranges between 0.31 and 1.50 uses per kg of CO2 equivalents emitted. PCR has a higher IRP regarding climate change impacts than PIR in all analyzed scenarios. The results reveal the relevance of PCR and PIR beyond the product life cycle. Finally, we discuss possible embeddings of the indicators in the assessment of climate policy and environmental protection measures, such as strengthening the use of PCR in contrast to PIR materials.

The IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT): A Model to Help Countries Mitigate Climate Change

The IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT): A Model to Help Countries Mitigate Climate Change

Agent‐based modeling to integrate elements from different disciplines for ambitious climate policy

AbstractAmbitious climate mitigation policies face social and political resistance. One reason is that existing policies insufficiently capture the diversity of relevant insights from the social sciences about potential policy outcomes. We argue that agent‐based models can serve as a powerful tool for integration of elements from different disciplines. Having such a common platform will enable a more complete assessment of climate policies, in terms of criteria like effectiveness, equity and public support.This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance

Updated projections of UK heat-related mortality using policy-relevant global warming levels and socio-economic scenarios

High temperatures and heatwaves are associated with significant impacts on human health. With continued global temperature increases, extreme thresholds relevant to health will be exceeded more frequently. This study provides an updated spatial analysis of heat-related mortality for the UK, using the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) at 1.5 °C–4 °C global warming levels, and embedding population and demographic data from the recently released UK Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (UK-SSPs). Climate change will lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the future, exacerbated by increased exposure due to increasing population. We find an increase from ∼1400 average annual deaths in the near-past (1990–2019) (95% CI: 1299–1485), to ∼2500 (2304–2794), ∼3700 (3280–4214), ∼8200 (7376–9072) and >18 000 (16 690–20 394) average annual deaths at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C and 4 °C respectively (assuming no adaptation). This is considered a high-end estimate due to the assumption of high population growth (UK-SSP5). Older populations are shown to be most vulnerable. A large proportion of heat-related deaths (76% (74%–79%) with 1.5 °C global warming) are attributed to more moderate (1 °C–5 °C) increases above regional temperature thresholds as opposed to extremes. Our results provide a timely update that can serve as a first step to supporting future UK climate policy and risk assessments. Future research considering nonlinearity in the health response to heat exposure is vital.

ABM-IAM: optimal climate policy under bounded rationality and multiple inequalities

Despite considerable concern about potentially inequitable effects of climate policy, models fall short in assessing their implications for policy design. To address this issue, we develop an agent-based climate-economy model, ABM-IAM, as a disaggregated, behavioural approach to integrated climate assessment. It describes networks of heterogeneous consumers, banks, power plants and firms, and is calibrated on patterns of growth and carbon dioxide emissions generated by the DICE model of Nordhaus. Whereas the latter assumes full employment and abstains from a financial sector and inequality considerations, our approach relaxes these restrictions to obtain a more reliable assessment of climate policy impacts. We show that inequalities in labour and capital income serve as essential but overlooked links between climate-change damages and optimal climate policy. Our result show that lower inequalities of labour income increase the social cost of carbon (SCC), while the impact of capital income inequalities on the SCC depends on the share of population receiving capital rents.

Environmental adjustment of the EU27 GDP: an econometric quantitative model

The use of natural resources as an input to economic growth and the interactions between economic and ecological systems have resulted in an accumulation of environmental externalities. This accumulation can negatively affect future levels of welfare and economic growth. In this paper, such dynamics are assessed and quantified by introducing explicit environmental externality variables in a production function. This is performed in an endogenous growth model where cumulative environmental externalities interact with economic growth. Using efficiency analysis, a dynamic econometric model is estimated showing the significance of a negative influence of past levels of use of natural resources on GDP over a broad range of stochastic frontier analysis estimations. The results are applied to propose an alternative specification to the production function of a modelling tool used by the European Commission for the assessment of climate policies in the European Union. The findings show that observed GDP is overestimated when environmental externalities are not considered.

On the quality of emission reductions: observed effects of carbon pricing on investments, innovation, and operational shifts. A response to van den Bergh and Savin (2021)

To meet the Paris Agreement targets, carbon emissions from the energy system must be eliminated by mid-century, implying vast investment and systemic change challenges ahead. In an article in WIREs Climate Change, we reviewed the empirical evidence for effects of carbon pricing systems on technological change towards full decarbonisation, finding weak or no effects. In response, van den Bergh and Savin (2021) criticised our review in an article in this journal, claiming that it is “unfair”, incomplete and flawed in various ways. Here, we respond to this critique by elaborating on the conceptual roots of our argumentation based on the importance of short-term emission reductions and longer-term technological change, and by expanding the review. This verifies our original findings: existing carbon pricing schemes have sometimes reduced emissions, mainly through switching to lower-carbon fossil fuels and efficiency increases, and have triggered weak innovation increases. There is no evidence that carbon pricing systems have triggered zero-carbon investments, and scarce but consistent evidence that they have not. Our findings highlight the importance of adapting and improving climate policy assessment metrics beyond short-term emissions by also assessing the quality of emission reductions and the progress of underlying technological change.

Application of CGE Models as a Climate Policy Assessment Tool: Bibliometric Analysis

In this study, we conduct a comprehensive bibliometric analysis aimed at structuring the existing economic literature that employs Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, and identifying key trends and main research areas. Using the authors’ methodology, we analyze the sample of 3760 domestic and foreign papers on CGE models published in 759 scientific journals in the period from 1995 to 2021. The main research questions are the applicability of the analyzed models for solving current environmental and economic issues and its relevance in modern realities. We show the potential of CGE models in the analysis of climate policy in Russia.

Composite risk index for designing smart climate and energy policies

This study presents an innovative model for a comprehensive, in-depth risk assessment of climate and energy policies. A risk matrix framework combined with a composite index methodology is applied to produce a risk index composed of 24 risk indicators grouped into six main risk categories - political, technical, economic, environmental, social and administrative. The model was applied to assess five different climate policy instruments, using both an ex-post and ex-ante assessment. The results highlight the critical risk factors for each policy instrument and identify existing policy vulnerabilities that require immediate mitigation action. The model could be used for decision-making at all levels of government and serve as a valuable tool for designing sustainable and successful environmental policies.

Life cycle carbon emissions of different land conversion and woody biomass utilization scenarios in Indonesia

Wood-based products can contribute to climate change mitigation by prolonging the storage of carbon in the anthroposphere. In Indonesia, however, many wood-based products originate from unsustainable sources due to widespread land-use changes over the past decades. To reconcile economic development and climate policy, a detailed and comprehensive carbon life cycle assessment is needed, covering biospheric and technospheric woody carbon flows and emissions over time. In this study, we combine dynamic material flow analysis, stock modeling, and life cycle assessment to estimate life cycle carbon emissions over time of wood products from different land conversion types in Indonesia on a hectare (ha) basis. Wood production from clear-cut primary forest conversions to oil palm, secondary forest, and timber plantations lead to net carbon emissions between 1206–1282, 436–449, and 629–958 t-CO2-eq/ha, respectively, at the end of the 200-year time horizon (TH). The counter-use scenarios of using non-renewable materials or energy instead of wood-based products for the same set of scenarios while leaving primary forests untouched display 44–57, 59–88, and 5–48% lower global warming potentials, respectively, at the end of the TH. Wood products from forest plantations on restored degraded land (DL_FP), reduced-impact logging (RIL), and improved reduced-impact logging (RIL-C) of primary forest went beyond carbon neutrality, displaying carbon removal potentials of up to around −218, −378, and −739 t-CO2-eq/ha, respectively, by year 200. At the one ha-scale, our results indicate that keeping primary forests intact is the climate-preferable option, even when emissions from the counter-use of non-renewable materials or energy are factored in, except if RIL is performed. Therefore, wood product utilization would only be favorable from a climate perspective in DL_FP or RIL pathways. These results help screen different land conversion policy options and providing information about the climate mitigation potential of wood products in different supply chains.

Bibliometric research on the development of climate change in the BRI regions

Climate change is one of the great global challenges. To clarify the research status of climate change in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) regions, the BRI countries can better deal with climate change. This study aims to improve our understanding of the status and trends of research on climate change in the BRI regions. Based on keywords associated with the BRI and climate change, we undertake bibliometric research by collecting 21,225 related SCI/SSCI articles published during 2013–2018. Statistics and analysis revealed the topics and hotspots of research on BRI and climate change. Following findings are distilled. First, although the number of published articles exhibited a rapidly growing trend, their distribution is extremely uneven. Articles were mainly published by institutions from USA, UK, China, India, and Germany, while individual contributions from most BRI countries was less than 1% of the publication volume. Second, existing studies focused on climate change impacts on BRI countries, in addition, climate mitigation and adaptation in BRI regions, especially the assessment of climate change risks and measures and policies in response to climate change, was less watched in the research. Third, not all BRI regions have been examined by researchers. South Africa, South Asia, and West Asia and North Africa are hotspots, while the Pacific and Central Asia are largely neglected. In the future, BRI countries need to improve their research ability on climate change and more attention should be paid to the field of climate mitigation, especially on the assessment of climate change risks, measures, and policies, and BRI countries in the Oceania and Central Asia regions.

System analysis of the bio‐based economy in Colombia: A bottom‐up energy system model and scenario analysis

AbstractThe transition to a sustainable bio‐based economy is perceived as a valid path towards low‐carbon development for emerging economies that have rich biomass resources. In the case of Colombia, the role of biomass has been tackled through qualitative roadmaps and regional climate policy assessments. However, neither of these approaches has addressed the complexity of the bio‐based economy systematically in the wider context of emission mitigation and energy and chemicals supply. In response to this limitation, we extended a bottom‐up energy system optimization model by adding a comprehensive database of novel bio‐based value chains. We included advanced road and aviation biofuels, (bio)chemicals, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and integrated biorefinery configurations. A scenario analysis was conducted for the period 2015–2050, which reflected uncertainties in the capacity for technological learning, climate policy ambitions, and land availability for energy crops. Our results indicate that biomass can play an important, even if variable, role in supplying 315–760 PJ/y of modern bio‐based products. In pursuit of a deep decarbonization trajectory, the large‐scale mobilization of biomass resources can reduce the cost of the energy system by up to 11 billion $/year, the marginal abatement cost by 62%, and the potential reliance on imports of oil and chemicals in the future. The mitigation potential of BECCS can reach 24–29% of the cumulative avoided emissions between 2015 and 2050. The proposed system analysis framework can provide detailed quantitative information on the role of biomass in low carbon development of emerging economies. © 2020 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Local biophysical effects of land use and land cover change: towards an assessment tool for policy makers

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) affects the climate through both biogeochemical (BGC) and biophysical (BPH) mechanisms. While BGC effects are assessed at global scale and are at the heart of climate treaties such as the Paris Agreement, BPH effects are totally absent despite their increasingly recognized impact, especially at local scale. This stems from the complexity in characterizing their climate impacts both at local and global scale, which makes it impractical to offer clear advices for the development of climate policies. To overcome this barrier, we built a prototype for an assessment tool to evaluate the local BPH impact of a series of land cover transitions. It relies on a dedicated methodology, based on satellite remote sensing data, that can estimate the local change in near surface air temperature associated with BPH effects of potential LULCC. This tool follows a tiered methodological approach, using transparent methods and mirroring what is currently provided by the IPCC to estimate the BGC effects, i.e. through different levels of increasing methodological complexity, from Tier 1 (i.e. default method and factors) to Tier 2 (i.e. similar to Tier 1 but with higher level of details and complexity) and Tier 3 (i.e. tailored solution to address national circumstances). The prototype tool enables the evaluation of the local impacts of land-related BPH effects, therefore facilitating a scientifically informed and comprehensive assessment of land-based climate policies.

Estimating the impacts of emissions trading scheme on low-carbon development

As the main climate policy, emissions trading scheme (ETS) has been proved by scholars to have significant impacts on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy consumption reduction worldwide. However, existing studies have focused mainly on the simulated impacts of ETS and few studies have poured specific attention into the actual impacts and their dynamical change, which may lead to an ambiguous understanding of ETS's performance. Here, taking China as the case study, this study investigated the net dynamic impacts of ETS policy on low-carbon development with respect to CO2 emissions, carbon intensity, energy consumption and energy intensity using a difference-in-differences method. The findings indicate that there is a positive relationship to some extent between carbon trading system and low-carbon transformation. The effect of ETS policy on low-carbon development will gradually increase over the time. When the variables population, gross domestic product, ratio of the secondary industry, technical level, and income level are controlled, these conclusions are also robust. In addition, common trend hypothesis and counterfactual test were used to confirm the reliability of the conducted difference-in-differences models. The findings are conductive to the future ETS policy-making and the research framework proposed in this study is also applicable to the assessment of global climate policy.

Impact Response Function Approach:As a Device for Bridging Gaps between Climate ChangeImpact Analyses and Policy Assessment

Impact Response Function Approach:As a Device for Bridging Gaps between Climate ChangeImpact Analyses and Policy Assessment

PRIMAP-crf: UNFCCC CRF data in IPCC 2006 categories

Abstract. All Annex I Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to report domestic emissions on an annual basis in a “Common Reporting Format” (CRF). In 2015, the CRF data reporting was updated to follow the more recent 2006 guidelines from the IPCC and the structure of the reporting tables was modified accordingly. However, the hierarchical categorisation of data in the IPCC 2006 guidelines is not readily extracted from the reporting tables. In this paper, we present the PRIMAP-crf data as a re-constructed hierarchical dataset according to the IPCC 2006 guidelines. Furthermore, the data are organised in a series of tables containing all available countries and years for each individual gas and category reported. It is therefore readily usable for climate policy assessment, such as the quantification of emissions reduction targets. In addition to single gases, the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, and NF3) is provided according to multiple global warming potentials. The dataset was produced using the PRIMAP emissions module. Key processing steps include extracting data from submitted CRF Excel spreadsheets, mapping CRF categories to IPCC 2006 categories, constructing missing categories from available data, and aggregating single gases to gas baskets. Finally, we describe key aspects of the data with relevance for climate policy: the contribution of NF3 to national totals, changes in data reported over subsequent years, and issues or difficulties encountered when processing currently available data. The processed data are available under an Open Data CC BY 4.0 license, and are available at https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2018.001.