ASPirin In Reducing Events In The Elderly Research Articles

Outcome risk model development for heterogeneity of treatment effect analyses: a comparison of non-parametric machine learning methods and semi-parametric statistical methods

BackgroundIn randomized clinical trials, treatment effects may vary, and this possibility is referred to as heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE). One way to quantify HTE is to partition participants into subgroups based on individual’s risk of experiencing an outcome, then measuring treatment effect by subgroup. Given the limited availability of externally validated outcome risk prediction models, internal models (created using the same dataset in which heterogeneity of treatment analyses also will be performed) are commonly developed for subgroup identification. We aim to compare different methods for generating internally developed outcome risk prediction models for subject partitioning in HTE analysis.MethodsThree approaches were selected for generating subgroups for the 2,441 participants from the United States enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized controlled trial. An extant proportional hazards-based outcomes predictive risk model developed on the overall ASPREE cohort of 19,114 participants was identified and was used to partition United States’ participants by risk of experiencing a composite outcome of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. Next, two supervised non-parametric machine learning outcome classifiers, decision trees and random forests, were used to develop multivariable risk prediction models and partition participants into subgroups with varied risks of experiencing the composite outcome. Then, we assessed how the partitioning from the proportional hazard model compared to those generated by the machine learning models in an HTE analysis of the 5-year absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo in each subgroup. Cochran’s Q test was used to detect if ARR varied significantly by subgroup.ResultsThe proportional hazard model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the estimated risk scores; the decision tree model was used to generate 6 subgroups (6 automatically determined tree leaves); and the random forest model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the prediction probability as risk scores. Using the semi-parametric proportional hazards model, the ARR at 5 years was 15.1% (95% CI 4.0–26.3%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. Using the random forest model, the ARR at 5 years was 13.7% (95% CI 3.1–24.4%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. The highest outcome risk group in the decision tree model also exhibited a risk reduction, but the confidence interval was wider (5-year ARR = 17.0%, 95% CI= -5.4–39.4%). Cochran’s Q test indicated ARR varied significantly only by subgroups created using the proportional hazards model. The hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo therapy did not significantly vary by subgroup in any of the models. The highest risk groups for the proportional hazards model and random forest model contained 230 participants each, while the highest risk group in the decision tree model contained 41 participants.ConclusionsThe choice of technique for internally developed models for outcome risk subgroups influences HTE analyses. The rationale for the use of a particular subgroup determination model in HTE analyses needs to be explicitly defined based on desired levels of explainability (with features importance), uncertainty of prediction, chances of overfitting, and assumptions regarding the underlying data structure. Replication of these analyses using data from other mid-size clinical trials may help to establish guidance for selecting an outcomes risk prediction modelling technique for HTE analyses.

Gender-specific aspects of socialisation and risk of cardiovascular disease among community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study using machine learning algorithms and a conventional method

BackgroundGender influences cardiovascular disease (CVD) through norms, social relations, roles and behaviours. This study identified gender-specific aspects of socialisation associated with CVD.MethodsA longitudinal study was conducted, involving 9936 (5,231 women...

A Thorough Literature Review of the Potential Benefits and Drawbacks of Long-Term Aspirin Use for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.

This article examines the role of aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. It highlights findings from major studies such as ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly), ARRIVE (Aspirin to Reduce Risk of Initial Vascular Events), and ASPREE-XT (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly - eXTension) , among others. The review focuses on aspirin's role in primary prevention for specific populations including older adults, diabetics, hypertension patients, rheumatoid arthritis patients, kidney transplant recipients, and those with specific lipoprotein(a) genotypes, among other groups. We review these studies, noting aspirin's role in reducing events such as myocardial infarctions and its potential for increasing bleeding risks. The review also considers the implications for patients with kidney disease, referencing the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study and the International Polycap Study-3 (TIPS-3) trial. Additionally, it addresses the shifting paradigms in guidelines from the US Preventive Services Task Force and other entities, underscoring the importance of individualized aspirin use by balancing benefits against bleeding risks. The article further explores the concept of platelet reactivity, discusses strategies for improving adherence to aspirin therapy, and identifies existing research gaps, such as the phenomenon of aspirin resistance. It concludes by suggesting potential areas for future investigation to enhance understanding and application of aspirin in cardiovascular disease prevention.

Testosterone and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in older men: further analysis of the ASPREE study

A cardiovascular safety trial of testosterone in men with cardiovascular risk factors or disease found no difference in rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) or death but noted more atrial fibrillation (AF) events in testosterone-treated men. We investigated the relationship between endogenous testosterone concentrations with risk of developing AF in healthy older men. Post-hoc analysis of 4570 male participants in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study. Men were aged ≥ 70 years, had no history of cardiovascular disease (including AF), thyroid disease, prostate cancer, dementia, or life-threatening illnesses. Risk of AF was modelled using Cox proportional hazards regression. Median (IQR) age was 73.7 (71.6-77.1) years and median (IQR) follow-up 4.4 (3.3-5.5) years, during which 286 men developed AF (15.3 per 1000 participant-years). Baseline testosterone was higher in men who developed incident AF compared men who did not [17.0 (12.4-21.2) vs 15.7 (12.2-20.0) nmol/L]. There was a non-linear association of baseline testosterone with incident AF. The risk for AF was higher in men with testosterone in quintiles (Q) 4&5 (Q4:Q3, HR=1.91; 95%CI=1.29-2.83 and Q5:Q3HR=1.98; 95%CI=1.33-2.94). Results were similar after excluding men who experienced MACE or heart failure during follow-up. Circulating testosterone concentrations within the high-normal range are independently associated with an increased risk of incident AF amongst healthy older men. This suggests that AF may be an adverse consequence of high-normal total testosterone concentrations. National Institute on Aging and National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health; Australian Government (NHMRC, CSIRO); Monash University; and AlfredHealth.

318 Discovering Subgroups with Supervised Machine Learning Models for Heterogeneity of Treatment Effect Analysis

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The goal of the study is to provide insights into the use of machine learning methods as a means to predict heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) in participants of randomized clinical trials. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Using data from 2,441 participants enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized controlled trial of daily low-dose aspirin vs placebo in the United States, we developed multivariable risk prediction models for the composite outcome of dementia, disability, or death. We used two machine learning techniques, decision trees and random forests, to develop novel non-parametric outcomes classifiers and generate risk-based subgroups. The comparator method was an extant semi-parametric proportional hazards predictive risk model. We then assessed HTE by examining the 5-year absolute risk reduction (ARR) of aspirin vs placebo in each risk subgroup. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: In the random forest classifier, the ARR at 5 years in the highest risk quintile was 13.7% (95% CI 3.1% to 24.4%). For the semi-parametric proportional hazards model, the ARR in the highest risk quintile was 15.1% (95% CI 4.0% to 26.3%). These results were comparable and provide evidence of the viability of internally developed parsimonious non-parametric machine learning models for HTE analysis. The decision tree model results (5-year ARR = 17.0%, 95% CI= -5.4% to 39.4% in the highest risk subgroup) exhibited more uncertainty in the results. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: None of the models detected significant HTE on the relative scale; there was substantial HTE on the absolute scale in three of the models. Treatment benefit on the absolute scale may be regarded as bearing greater clinical importance and may be present even in the absence of benefit on the relative scale.

Association of serum phosphate, calcium and alkaline phosphatase with risk of incident fractures in healthy older adults.

Aging increases fracture risk through bone loss and microarchitecture deterioration due to an age-related imbalance in bone resorption and formation during bone remodelling. We examined the associations between levels of phosphate, calcium, and alkaline phosphatase, and fracture risk in initially-healthy older individuals. A post-hoc analysis of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial recruited 16,703 Australian participants aged ≥70 years and 2,411 US participants aged ≥65 years. Analyses were conducted on ASPREE-Fracture substudy participants from Australia with serum calcium, phosphate, and alkaline phosphatase measurement. Fracture data were collected post-randomization. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Phosphate, calcium, and alkaline phosphatase were analysed in deciles (D1-D10), with deciles 4-7 (31-70%) as the reference category. Restricted cubic spline curves were used to identify nonlinear associations. Of the 9915 participants, 907 (9·2%) persons had incident fractures recorded over 3·9 (SD 1·4) years. In the fully adjusted model, males in the top decile (D10) of phosphate had 78% higher risk of incident fracture (HR 1·78, 95% CI 1·25-2·54). No such association was observed for females (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·83-1·44). The population attributable fraction in men within the D10 phosphate category is 6·9%. This result confirms that, high-normal serum phosphate levels are associated with increased fracture risk in older men.

The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank: Methodology and participant characteristics.

ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE), a placebo-controlled prevention trial of low dose aspirin, provided the opportunity to establish a biospecimen biobank from initially healthy persons aged 70+ years for future research. The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank (ASPREE Biobank) collected, processed and stored blood and urine samples at -80degC or under nitrogen vapour at two timepoints, three years apart, from a willing subset of Australian ASPREE participants. Written informed consent included separate opt-in questions for biomarker and genetic testing. Fractionated blood and urine were aliquoted into multiple low-volume, barcoded cryotubes for frozen storage within 4 hours of collection. Specially designed and outfitted mobile laboratories provided opportunities for participation by people in regional and rural areas. Detailed, high quality demographic, physiological and clinical data were collected annually through the ASPREE trial. 12,219 participants contributed blood/urine at the first timepoint, 10,617 of these older adults provided 3-year follow-up samples, and an additional 1,712 provided saliva for DNA. The mean participant age was 74 years, 54% were female and 46% lived outside major cities. Despite geographical and logistical challenges, nearly 100% of blood/urine specimens were processed and frozen within 4 hours of collection into >1.4 million aliquots. After a median of 4.7 years, major clinical events among ASPREE Biobank participants included 332 with dementia, 613 with cardiovascular disease events, 1259 with cancer, 357 with major bleeds and 615 had died. The ASPREE Biobank houses and curates a large number of biospecimens collected prior to the clinical manifestations of major disease, and 3-year follow-up samples, all linked to high quality, extensive phenotypic information. This provides the opportunity to identify or validate diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers, and potentially study biological effectors, of ageing-related diseases or maintenance of older-age good health.

Occupational characteristics and disability-free survival after retirement age: an exploratory analysis from the ASPREE study.

Certain occupational characteristics have been linked with poor health and reduced longevity. However, the association between occupational characteristics and survival free of disability in a post-retirement age group has not been investigated. We investigated outcomes in 12,215 healthy older Australian adults in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) sub-study. The ISCO-88 major occupational groups, settings, and activity levels were assigned based on free-text job descriptions. The Finnish Job Exposure Matrix was used to assign occupational characteristics to the three longest-held jobs. The primary endpoint, disability-free survival, was defined as a composite measure of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. The endpoint of all-cause mortality was analyzed separately. Because of multiple exploratory analyses, only those associations with a two-sided value of p less than 0.005 were considered statistically significant. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. Having worked in an 'elementary' occupation was associated with a reduction in disability-free survival. A specific impact on disability-free survival was observed among those whose work had involved high accident risk and adverse social climate. No significant relationship was identified with those previously exposed to sedentary work, vigorous physical activity, work primarily outdoors, or a range of other occupational characteristics. All-cause mortality was not increased among any of the occupational groups. This exploratory study found a reduction in disability-free survival among people who worked in 'elementary' occupations, with specific risks associated with occupations involving high accident risks and adverse social climate.

Association of plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level with risk of incident dementia: a cohort study of healthy older adults

Recent studies have reported associations between high plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and risk of all-cause mortality, age-related macular degeneration, sepsis and fractures, but associations with dementia risk remain unclear. To determine whether high plasma HDL-C levels are associated with increased incident dementia risk in initially-healthy older people. We conducted a post-hoc analysis of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial; a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of daily low-dose aspirin in healthy older people. ASPREE recruited 16,703 participants aged ≥70 years (from Australia) and 2411 participants aged ≥65 years (from the US) between 2010 and 2014. Participants had no diagnosed cardiovascular disease, dementia, physical disability, or life-threatening illness at enrolment and were cognitively healthy (3MS score ≥78). All-cause dementia was a primary trial endpoint, and determined by DSM-IV criteria. Cox regression was used to examine hazard ratios between HDL-C categories <40mg/dL, 40-60mg/dL (reference category), 60-80mg/dL, and >80mg/dL and dementia. Restricted cubic spline curves were used to determine nonlinear associations. Data analysis was performed from October 2022 to January 2023. Of the 18,668 participants, 850 (4.6%) cases of incident dementia were recorded over 6.3 (SD 1.8) years. Participants with high HDL-C (>80mg/dL) had a 27% higher risk of dementia (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03, 1.58). Age stratified analyses demonstrated that the risk of incident dementia was higher in participants ≥75 years compared to participants <75 years (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.10, 1.83 vs HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.68, 1.51). Associations remained significant after adjusting for covariates including age, sex, country of enrolment, daily exercise, education, alcohol consumption, weight change over time, non-HDL-C, HDL-C-PRS, and APOE genotype. In a population of initially-healthy older adults aged ≥75 years, high HDL-C levels were associated with increased risk of all-cause dementia. National Institutes of Health, USA; National Health and Medical Research Council Australia; Monash University (Melbourne, VIC, Australia); and the Victorian Cancer Agency (Australia).

Long-term occupational exposures on disability-free survival and mortality in older adults.

The impact of long-term occupational exposures on health in older adults is increasingly relevant as populations age. To date, no studies have reported their impact on survival free of disability in older adults. We aimed to investigate the association between long-term occupational exposure and disability-free survival (DFS), all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in initially healthy older adults. We analysed data from 12 215 healthy participants in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study whose mean age was 75 years. Their work history was collated with the 'ALOHA-plus JEM' (Job Exposure Matrix) to assign occupational exposures. The primary endpoint, DFS, was a composite measure of death, dementia or persistent physical disability. The secondary endpoint, mortality, was classified according to the underlying cause. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for confounders. A total of 1835 individuals reached the DFS endpoint during the median 4.7 years follow-up period. Both ever-high and cumulative exposure to all dusts and all pesticides during a person's working years were associated with reduced DFS. Compared to no exposure, men with high exposure to dusts and pesticides had a reduced DFS. Neither of these exposures were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. Men with high occupational exposure to solvents and women exposed to dusts experienced higher all-cause and cancer-related mortality. Long-term occupational exposure to all dusts and pesticides was associated with a reduced DFS and increased mortality in community-dwelling healthy older adults.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Cardiovascular Resilience Identifies Protective Variation in the CETP Gene.

Background The risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) increases sharply with age. Some older individuals, however, remain unaffected despite high predicted risk. These individuals may carry cardioprotective genetic variants that contribute to resilience. Our aim was to assess whether asymptomatic older individuals without prevalent ASCVD carry cardioprotective genetic variants that contribute to ASCVD resilience. Methods and Results We performed a genome-wide association study using a 10-year predicted ASCVD risk score as a quantitative trait, calculated only in asymptomatic older individuals aged ≥70 years without prevalent ASCVD. Our discovery genome-wide association study of N=12 031 ASCVD event-free individuals from the ASPREE (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) trial identified 2 independent variants, rs9939224 (P<5×10-8) and rs56156922 (P<10-6), in the CETP (cholesteryl ester transfer protein) gene. The CETP gene is a regulator of plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipoprotein(a) levels, and it is a therapeutic drug target. The associations were replicated in the UK Biobank (subpopulation of N=13 888 individuals aged ≥69 years without prevalent ASCVD). Carriers of the identified CETP variants (versus noncarriers) had higher plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, lower plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and reduced risk of incident ASCVD events during follow-up. Expression quantitative trait loci analysis predicted the identified CETP variants reduce CETP gene expression across various tissues. Previously reported associations between genetic CETP inhibition and increased risk of age-related macular degeneration were not observed among the 3917 ASPREE trial participants with retinal imaging and genetic data available. Conclusions Common genetic variants in the CETP gene region are associated with cardiovascular resilience during aging. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583.

Diagnostic accuracy of self-reported age-related macular degeneration in the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons

BackgroundThe validity of findings from epidemiological studies using self-report of ophthalmic conditions depends on several factors. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of self-reported age-related macular degeneration (AMD) among older Australians enroled in a primary prevention clinical trial and compared diagnostic accuracy between demographic subgroups.MethodsAt baseline (2010–2015), Australian sub-study participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial, underwent bilateral two-field, 45° non-mydriatic colour retinal photography. Beckman classification of any-stage AMD was used as the reference standard diagnosis. Participants were asked whether a doctor had ever diagnosed them with “macular degeneration” (the index test) via a paper-based questionnaire as part of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) within the first year of enrolment.ResultsIn total, 4193 participants were included (aged 70–92 years, 50.8% female). Of those, 262 (6.3%) reported having AMD and 92 (2.2%) were unsure. Retinal grading detected 2592 (61.8%) with no AMD, 867 (20.7%) with early, 686 (16.4%) with intermediate and 48 (1.1%) with late AMD (n = 1601 with any-stage AMD, 38.2%). Self-reported AMD had 11.4% sensitivity (95% CI 9.9–13.1) and 96.9% specificity (95% CI 96.2–97.6) for any-stage AMD, with 69.8% and 63.9% positive and negative predictive values. Sensitivity was higher among participants with late-stage AMD (87.5%), older participants (26.8%), and those with poorer vision (41.0%).ConclusionsAlthough most participants with late-stage AMD were aware of having AMD, the majority with early and intermediate AMD were not. Therefore, findings from studies that rely on disease self-report should be interpreted with caution.

The association between adverse events in later life and mortality in older individuals

BackgroundStress can have adverse impacts on health, particularly when it is chronic or resulting from major adverse events. Our study investigated whether relatively common adverse events in older individuals were associated with an increased risk of death, as well as cause-specific death and potential gender differences. MethodsParticipants were 12896 community-dwelling Australians aged ≥70 years at enrolment into the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) study and without known life-limiting disease. A questionnaire administered in the year after enrolment, collected information on ten adverse events experienced in the past year. Mortality status was verified by multiple sources including health records and the National Death Index across a maximum of 10 years. Underlying causes of death were determined using clinical information by two adjudicators. Cox-proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate mortality risk. ResultsTwo of the ten adverse events were associated with an increased risk of mortality in fully adjusted models. A 69% increased risk of mortality was observed in participants who reported their spouse/partner had recently died (95% CI: 1.19–2.39, P < 0.01). Cancer-related but not cardiovascular deaths also increased. Participants with a seriously ill spouse/partner also had a 23% increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.02–1.48, P = 0.03). There was a tendency for these associations to be stronger among men than women. LimitationsPerceived stress and cortisol were not measured, thus limiting our understanding of the psychological and physiological impacts of adverse events. ConclusionsExperiencing adverse events in later-life, especially the death of a spouse/partner, may be a risk factor for earlier mortality. These findings may increase public health awareness and better inform initiatives for particular groups, including bereaved men.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in older adults is associated with frailty and social disadvantage.

The burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is growing rapidly, as is the number of older adults globally. However, relatively few studies have been performed evaluating the prevalence and risk factors for MASLD in older adults. As such, we aimed to identify the prevalence of MASLD in older adults, as well as sociodemographic, clinical, functional and biochemical associations. The study population included older adults without a history of cardiovascular disease, dementia or independence-limiting functional impairment who had participated in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomised trial. MASLD was defined using the Fatty Liver Index (FLI). Associations were identified using Poisson regression with robust variance for FLI ≥ 60 vs FLI < 30. 9097 Australian participants aged ≥70 years had complete biochemical and anthropometric data to identify MASLD. The study population had a mean age of 75.1 ± 4.3 years and was 45.0% male. Almost one-third (33.0%) had prevalent MASLD, and the prevalence decreased with increasing age (adjusted RR [aRR] 0.96, 95% CI: 0.96-0.97). MASLD was also negatively associated with social advantage (aRR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.90-0.99) and exercise tolerance and was positively associated with diabetes mellitus (aRR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.16-1.29), hypertension (aRR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.22-1.41), male sex (aRR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.57-1.74), pre-frailty (aRR: 1.99, 95% CI: 1.82-2.12) and frailty (aRR: 2.36, 95% CI: 2.16-2.56). MASLD and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) results were 100% concordant. This study in a large cohort of relatively healthy community-dwelling older adults shows that MASLD is common, decreases with age and is associated with poorer metabolic health, social disadvantage and frailty.

Low-Dose Aspirin and the Risk of Stroke and Intracerebral Bleeding in Healthy Older People

Low-dose aspirin has been widely used for primary and secondary prevention of stroke. The balance between potential reduction of ischemic stroke events and increased intracranial bleeding has not been established in older individuals. To establish the risks of ischemic stroke and intracranial bleeding among healthy older people receiving daily low-dose aspirin. This secondary analysis of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of daily low-dose aspirin was conducted among community-dwelling people living in Australia or the US. Participants were older adults free of symptomatic cardiovascular disease. Recruitment took place between 2010 and 2014, and participants were followed up for a median (IQR) of 4.7 (3.6-5.7) years. This analysis was completed from August 2021 to March 2023. Daily 100-mg enteric-coated aspirin or matching placebo. Stroke and stroke etiology were predetermined secondary outcomes and are presented with a focus on prevention of initial stroke or intracranial bleeding event. Outcomes were assessed by review of medical records. Among 19 114 older adults (10 782 females [56.4%]; median [IQR] age, 74 [71.6-77.7] years), 9525 individuals received aspirin and 9589 individuals received placebo. Aspirin did not produce a statistically significant reduction in the incidence of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 0.89; 95% CI, 0.71-1.11). However, a statistically significant increase in intracranial bleeding was observed among individuals assigned to aspirin (108 individuals [1.1%]) compared with those receiving placebo (79 individuals [0.8%]; HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.84). This occurred by an increase in a combination of subdural, extradural, and subarachnoid bleeding with aspirin compared with placebo (59 individuals [0.6%] vs 41 individuals [0.4%]; HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 0.98-2.16). Hemorrhagic stroke was recorded in 49 individuals (0.5%) assigned to aspirin compared with 37 individuals (0.4%) in the placebo group (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 0.87-2.04). This study found a significant increase in intracranial bleeding with daily low-dose aspirin but no significant reduction of ischemic stroke. These findings may have particular relevance to older individuals prone to developing intracranial bleeding after head trauma. ISRCTN.org Identifier: ISRCTN83772183.

Socio-Demographic, Lifestyle, and Clinical Characteristics of Early and Later Weight Status in Older Adults: Secondary Analysis of the ASPREE Trial and ALSOP Sub-Study.

To identify the socio-demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics associated with self-reported weight status in early (age 18 years) and late (age ≥ 70 years) adulthood. The number of participants was 11,288, who were relatively healthy community-dwelling Australian adults aged ≥70 years (mean age 75.1 ± 4.2 years) in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) sub-study. Self-reported weight at the study baseline (age ≥ 70 years) and recalled weight at age 18 years were collected. Height measured at baseline was used to calculate the BMI at both time points. Individuals were categorised into one of five 'lifetime' weight status groups: healthy weight (at both age 18 year and ≥70 years), overweight (at either or both times), non-obese (age 18 year) to obesity (age ≥70 years), obesity (age 18 years) to non-obese (age ≥ 70 years), and early and later life obesity (at age 18 years and ≥70 years). Participants who experienced obesity in early and/or late adulthood were at a higher risk of adverse clinical characteristics. Obesity in late adulthood (regardless of early adulthood weight status) was associated with high proportions of hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia, whereas obesity in early adulthood (regardless of late adulthood weight status) was associated with lower cognitive scores (on all four measures). Healthy or overweight weight status in early and later adulthood was associated with more favourable socioeconomic, lifestyle, and clinical measures. Obesity in early adulthood was associated with lower cognitive function in later adulthood, whereas obesity in later adulthood was associated with hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia.

Association of Proton Pump Inhibitor Use With Incident Dementia and Cognitive Decline in Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study

Prior studies have suggested that proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use is associated with increased risk of dementia; however, these have been limited by incomplete assessment of medication use and failure to account for confounders. Furthermore, prior studies have relied on claims-based diagnoses for dementia, which can lead to misclassification. We investigated the associations of PPI and histamine-2 receptor antagonist (H2RA) use with dementia and cognitive decline. We conducted a post hoc analysis of ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE), a randomized trial of aspirin in the United States and Australia, including 18,934 community-based adults ≥65 years of all races/ethnicities. Baseline and recent PPI and H2RA use were determined according to review of medications during annual in-person study visits. Incident dementia was defined according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria. Secondary endpoints include cognitive impairment, no dementia (CIND) and changes in cognition. Associations of medication use with dementia and CIND outcomes were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. Changes in cognitive test scores were examined using linear mixed-effects models. Baseline PPI use vs nonuse was not associated with incident dementia (multivariable hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-1.08), CIND (multivariable hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-1.09), or with changes in overall cognitive test scores over time (multivariable B,-0.002; standard error, 0.01; P= .85). Similarly, no associations were observed between H2RA use and all cognitive endpoints. In adults ≥65 years of age, PPI and H2RA use were not associated with incident dementia, CIND, or decline in cognition over time. These data provide reassurance about the safety of long-term use of PPIs among older adults.

The association of allopurinol with persistent physical disability and frailty in a large community based older cohort.

The protective effects of allopurinol on physical function in older adults are not well understood, despite its potential to improve functional gains and reduce sarcopenia. This study aims to determine the association between allopurinol, persistent physical disability, and frailty in older gout patients. This analysis used data from a randomized trial in an older cohort, ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE). ASPREE recruited 19,114 participants aged ≥65 years without prior cardiovascular events, dementia, or independence-limiting physical disability at trial enrolment. This analysis examined the association of baseline and time-varying allopurinol use with persistent physical disability and new-onset frailty in participants with gout at baseline (self-report or use of any anti-gout medications). Frailty was measured using the Fried frailty phenotype (score ≥3/5) and a deficit accumulation frailty index (FI) (score >0.21/1.0). Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used for main analyses. This analysis included 1155 gout participants, with 630 taking allopurinol at baseline and 525 not. During a median follow-up of 5.7 years, 113 new allopurinol users were identified. Compared with nonusers, baseline allopurinol use was associated with a significant risk reduction of persistent physical disability (Adjusted HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.92, p = 0.03). The strength of the association was modestly attenuated in the time-varying analysis (Adjusted HR 0.56, 0.29-1.08, p = 0.08). No significant associations with frailty measures were observed for either baseline allopurinol use (Fried frailty: Adjusted HR 0.83, 0.62-1.12; FI: Adjusted HR 0.96, 0.74-1.24) or time-varying allopurinol use (Fried frailty: Adjusted HR 0.92, 0.69-1.24; FI: Adjusted HR 1.02, 0.78-1.33). Allopurinol use in older adults with gout is associated with a reduced risk of persistent physical disability but not associated with risk of frailty.

Longitudinal association between handgrip strength, gait speed and risk of serious falls in a community-dwelling older population.

Both grip strength and gait speed can be used as markers of muscle function, however, no previous study has examined them in the same population with respect to risk of falls. In this prospective cohort study, utilising data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial and ASPREE-Fracture substudy, we analysed the association of grip strength and gait speed and serious falls in healthy older adults. Grip strength was measured using a handheld dynamometer and gait speed from 3-metre timed walks. Serious falls were confined to those involving hospital presentation. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations with falls. Over an average of 4.0±1.3 years, amongst 16,445 participants, 1,533 had at least one serious fall. After adjustment for age, sex, physical activity, body mass index, Short Form 12 (state of health), chronic kidney disease, polypharmacy and aspirin, each standard deviation (SD) lower grip strength was associated with 27% (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.17-1.38) higher risk of falls. The results remained the same for males and females. There was a dose-response relationship in the association between grip strength and falls risk. The higher risk of falls was observed in males in all body mass index (BMI) categories, but only in obese females. The association between gait speed and falls risk was weaker than the association between grip strength and falls risk. All males and only obese females with low grip strength appear to be at the greatest risk of serious falls. These findings may assist in early identification of falls.

Self-rated eyesight among healthy older Australians: Baseline results of the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons.

We aimed to describe the self-reported level of eyesight amongst a cohort of relatively healthy older Australian adults, and to investigate associations between poorer self-rated eyesight and demographic, health, and functional characteristics METHODS: The ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) study was embedded in a multisite trial which recruited independently living Australians from general practices (2010-2014). Self-rated eyesight was recorded on a paper-based questionnaire as Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor, Very poor, or Completely blind at the baseline study wave RESULTS: Data from 14 592 participants (aged 70-95 years, 54.61% female) were included in this cross-sectional analysis. Eighty percent of participants reported excellent or good eyesight (n = 11 677). People with complete blindness were precluded from enrolling but 299 participants (2.0%) reported poor or very poor eyesight, and 2616 rated their eyesight as fair (17.9%). Lower levels of eyesight were associated with being older, female, fewer years of formal education, a primary language other than English, smoking, and self-reported macular degeneration, glaucoma, retinopathy, cataracts, and hearing problems (each p ≤ 0.021). People with lower levels of eyesight had a higher number of falls, frailty characteristics, and depressive symptoms, and lower mental and physical health functioning scores (each p < 0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Whilst most of these healthy older Australians reported good or excellent eyesight, a notable minority reported poor or very poor eyesight, and this was associated with a range of poorer health measures. These findings support the need for additional resources to prevent vision loss and associated sequelae.