Asian Summer Monsoon Research Articles

Earlier Seasonal March of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in the Mid-Pliocene

Abstract The mid-Pliocene (∼3.3–3 million years ago) has been considered as a potential analog for future climate, but the seasonal march of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM)—a distinctive feature of the modern EASM characterized by a northward migration of the monsoon circulation and rainband from early to late summer—remains unclear in this regard. Here, based on model simulations mainly from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2, we find that the seasonal march of the mid-Pliocene EASM is about two pentads earlier than today. It is accompanied by a northward shift of the monsoon circulation and rainband in July, resulting from both extratropical and tropical processes. For the extratropical path, greener vegetation in the midlatitudes enhances the surface warming, which reduces the meridional temperature gradient. The subsequent weakening and northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet lead to weaker zonal topographic Rossby waves, resulting in an anticyclone over East Asia. For the tropical path, exposure of the Sunda and Sahul shelves weakens the Walker circulation, which suppresses the Maritime Continent convection. The subsequent weakening of the local Hadley circulation increases precipitation in the tropical western North Pacific, which excites a Pacific–Japan meridional teleconnection with anticyclonic circulation over northern East Asia. These processes lead to a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high and hence the monsoon rainband. Our results unravel the dominant roles of vegetation and geography in the earlier seasonal march of the mid-Pliocene EASM, and its implications for potential future changes in the EASM’s seasonal march are discussed.

Optimal Atmospheric Heat Sources for the Interannual Variability of South Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractUsing a Green's function‐like approach, this study identifies optimal atmospheric heat sources for the two leading modes of South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) interannual variability. Optimal heating for the first mode, characterized by a lower‐level anomalous anticyclone over northern Bay of Bengal (BOB), is distributed over the Arabian Sea and tropical eastern Indian Ocean (EIO)‐Maritime Continent, with cooling over the BOB‐western North Pacific. In contrast, heating over the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean and equatorial Atlantic, along with cooling over the tropical EIO‐western Pacific, optimally drives the second mode, featuring an anomalous anticyclone over central‐northern India. El Niño/Southern Oscillation indirectly influences SASM by triggering heat sources resembling these optimal patterns. Other sea surface temperatures (SSTs), like those over equatorial Atlantic, can also generate similar heating structures, causing corresponding SASM anomalies. This suggests that the impact of SST modes on SASM depends on the similarity of induced heat sources to optimal patterns.

Greening of India and revival of the South Asian summer monsoon in a warmer world

While it is accepted that the tropical hydrological cycle has intensified during past interglacial periods due to changes in insolation, greenhouse gases and ice volume, their respective influences are uncertain. Here we present a pollen record from Bengal Bay to reconstruct vegetation changes in India’s core monsoon zone during two warm periods, the current and last interglacial, comparing the data with numerical model simulations to assess the influence of different forcing mechanisms. Results show tropical forest expansion between 11.7-5 ka and 127-120 ka, defining two Indian humid periods, with the last interglacial showing the strongest monsoon activity, consistent with salinity reconstructions. Model-data comparison highlights boreal summer insolation as the primary driver of vegetation dynamics and monsoon intensity during interglacial periods, with CO2 and ice-sheets having a limited effect. Vegetation remains unaffected by pre-industrial CO2 variations above 250 ppmv, a threshold value that characterizes most interglacials of the last million years.

Constrained Projections Indicate Less Delay in Onset of Summer Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea

AbstractThe summer monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea signals the beginning of the Asian summer monsoon, critical for local fisheries, agriculture and livelihoods, so communities are concerned about its potential changes under global warming. Previous projections have suggested a delay, but the extent of this delay remains uncertain, undermining the reliability of the projections. Here, we show a significant correlation between the projected shift in Bay of Bengal/South China Sea monsoon onset and present‐day sea surface temperature (SST) simulation over the western Pacific (WP). This emergent relationship arises from the spread of the precipitation response over the western‐central Pacific to WP SST, as more precipitation induces stronger tropical upper‐tropospheric warming, increasing westerly vertical shear near South Asia, and facilitating the onset delay. The rectified projections indicate that the delayed shift is almost halved compared to raw projections, and the intermodel uncertainty is reduced by 30%.

Warming Asian Drylands Inducing the Delayed Retreat of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Intensifying Autumn Precipitation in Northern China

AbstractIn the early 21st century, there was an increase in precipitation during the retreat period of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). This study aims to explore the precipitation changes and their possible causes in the context of climate change. The findings indicate that the increased precipitation primarily occurred in the Yellow—Huai River valley during the early autumn. This corresponds to a delayed retreat of the EASM with a northward shift of 0.9°N after 2002. Notably, this anomalous changes in the EASM are associated with the significant warming in two Asian dryland regions. The warming of the central Asian dryland strengthens the midlatitude high‐pressure belt and the anomaly anticyclone over northeast Asia, which restrains the development of wave troughs and westerly cold air activity. Similarly, the warming China‐Mongolia dryland enhances the anomaly anticyclone over northeast Asia through the dry soil moisture feedback and reduced latitudinal temperature gradient. These two Asian drylands thereby hold the northward shift of the westerly jet stream and the northwest extension of the Japan Sea high and the western Pacific subtropical high. These changes result in maintaining the northward EASM circulation and driving the northwest water vapor flux from the northwest Pacific, leading to moisture convergence in northern China. The China‐Mongolia dryland warming also increases the land‐sea thermal contrast, which induces a dipole pattern over East Asia and drives the northward water vapor flux from the South Sea. As a result, the rapidly warming drylands restrict westerly activity and EASM retreat, ultimately leading to increased precipitation.

Quantitative contributions of different atmospheric circulation systems to Holocene aeolian activity in northwestern China: Evidence from a closed interdune lake in the Tengger Desert hinterland

The aeolian deserts of northwestern China are major landscape types in the arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and collectively they are one of the largest dust source regions on Earth. However, owing to occurrence of sedimentary hiatuses within aeolian deposits in the deserts, we lack clear knowledge of the history of Holocene aeolian activity and the interaction between aeolian processes and their potential drivers. In this study, we extracted an environmentally sensitive grain-size component from the sediments of a closed interdune lake in the hinterland of the Tengger Desert. Our methodology included the application of End Member Analysis (EMA) of different modern sediment types from catchment to regional scales. We reconstructed aeolian activity over the past 13 cal ka BP and quantified the contributions of environmental factors. The results indicated that the EM 2 fraction of the interdune lake sediments is mainly transported by local winds and reflects changes in the intensity of aeolian activity. Based on EM 2 the strongest aeolian activity occurred during 13.0–7.0 cal ka BP, especially during 8.0–7.0 cal ka BP, and the weakest activity occurred during 7.0–3.5 cal ka BP. Aeolian activity increased after 3.5 cal ka BP, but with a gradually weakening trend. The occurrence of the weakest aeolian activity in the Tengger Desert during the Middle Holocene differs from that on the Asian Summer Monsoonal Boundary and in the area influenced by the Westerlies-dominated climate regime. Thus, there was a clearly defined spatio-temporal differentiation of Holocene aeolian activity across the deserts and dune fields of northern China. Quantitative analysis of the contributions of the potential drivers indicated that wind activity forced by different atmospheric circulation systems, rather than changes in vegetation cover, were the most important driver of regional aeolian activity, although their relative effects varied during the Holocene.

Climatic and environmental changes since last deglaciation in the steppe region of northern China and their impact on early population survival patterns

The northern Chinese steppe is situated in the periphery of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and exhibits high sensitivity to variations in monsoon intensity and global climate change. Therefore, comprehending the climatic evolution history of this region is pivotal for elucidating early human civilization development. The research focuses on a fully enclosed crater lake located in the northern Chinese steppe by utilizing n-alkanes, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) in lake sediments, based on AMS-14C dating analysis, the climatic and environmental evolution history of this region from the last deglaciation to the middle Holocene has been reconstructed, and the impact of climate change on the evolution of early human civilization is elucidated. The findings indicate that the EASM driven by summer solar radiation, exerts control over the climate and hydrology in the steppe region of northern China. Since the last deglaciation, the gradual warming and humidification of the climate environment have significantly enhanced the animal and plant resources, thereby establishing a solid foundation for the transition of early human populations in northern Chinese steppe from high-mobility hunter-gatherers to settled communities. Additionally, this climatic shift has provided an optimal backdrop for the emergence of primitive agriculture. The changes of stone tool assemblages unearthed at related sites also confirm the above views. However, the climate model underwent rapid changes during the period of 7.2–6.4 cal kyr BP, leading to the occurrence of extreme arid climate events. Consequently, regional precipitation decreased, lake ecology became imbalanced, woody plants retreated in the basin, and vegetation coverage was greatly reduced. The aforementioned factor may have played a pivotal role in the disappearance of early populations within the region. Consequently, climate and environmental change not only serve as the primary driving force behind human civilization’s development but also act as an inexorable catalyst for its decline.

Utilizing Paleoclimate Data to Analyze the Relationship Between Climate Change and Human Activities

Our research aims at finding the relationship between climatic cycle-changes and the human activities in ancient China. Most climatic changes show shifts in the precipitation volume and alternations between warm and cold periods. Through other research findings, we find the precipitation volume is closely connected with alternations of warm and cold periods. This report presents a linear comparison between the population of ancient China and the east Asia climate variables and chooses tree rings as the main indicator of the paleo-climate. Through the literature review and the data analysis, we find that (1) The dominant climate pattern in East Asia is East Asia Summer Monsoon system, causing centennial scaled climate periodicities, affecting the ecosystem and the society. (2) There are certain cycles of climate change, in which the warm period and the cold period have a certain influence on the population change. (3) The precipitation has a certain correlation with the population change. However, single temperature and precipitation cannot directly affect the population change, but also need to be combined with social and historical factors specific analysis.

Climate-related risk to maize crops in China from Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda

AbstractThe Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, invaded China late in 2018 and was responsible for substantial crop losses, especially to maize. This work focuses on the suitability of climate across China for Fall Armyworm survival and spread. It uses climate metrics derived with guidance from experts to enable assessment of the risks posed by Fall Armyworm on maize production in different regions of China. The locations and time of year when temperature conditions are within a viable range for Fall Armyworm survival (minimum temperature higher than 9.7$$^\circ$$ ∘ C and maximum temperature lower than 39.2$$^\circ$$ ∘ C) are used to estimate the spatial distribution of winter breeding and overwintering zones, which helps understand the regions and timing of Fall Armyworm migration risk into northern maize production regions. In addition, meridional wind conditions across the Yangtze River basin area are assessed, and a metric of migration potential from the winter breeding and overwintering regions in the south towards northern regions with maize production is established. Results show that temperature during the winter months currently limits Fall Armyworm winter breeding populations to the very southern regions of China (and bordering countries to the south). However, due to the consistent timing and direction of the East Asian Summer Monsoon winds, the Fall Armyworm could easily be directed northwards to the Yangtze River basin during summer months with a peak in July. For this reason, pest management actions against the Fall Armyworm on summer maize should be taken.

Strong coupling between the East Asian summer monsoon and regional hydrological conditions as evidenced by multiproxy stalagmite records for the last deglaciation

Millennial-to centennial-scale abrupt climate events during the last glacial‒interglacial transition have significant relevance to modern-day extreme climate changes, which are occurring more frequently in the context of global warming. However, the regional expression of humidity conditions during the last deglaciation and their possible forcing mechanism in northern China are controversial. Here, combined with published δ18O data, we report 35-year-resolved δ13C and 76-year-resolved Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca records from a stalagmite from 15.3 to 10.9 ka BP from Lianhua Cave, northern China. The LH4 stalagmite δ18O record clearly records a weak monsoon event during the Younger Dryas (YD) from 12.8 to 11.6 ka BP and a strong monsoon event during the Bølling-Allerød (BA) from 14.6 to 12.8 ka BP. In addition, the δ13C and trace element ratio records, which represent local hydroclimatic changes, indicate wetter conditions during the BA and drier conditions during the YD, which appear to match well with the δ18O variations on the millennial timescale. A comparison of 28 records from 17 sites along the modern margin of the China summer monsoon revealed that the BA was characterized by wet conditions; inversely, the YD was characterized by dry conditions throughout northern China, which is obviously different from the consensus of the wet YD and the dry BA in northern northeastern China. The covariance in northern China suggests that the hydrological variation may be modulated by the advance and retreat of the large-scale East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation. Further comparison revealed an anticorrelated relationship between millennial-scale precipitation changes in northern China and the middle‒lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley during the last deglaciation. This correlation is analogous to the dipole precipitation mode at present, which is likely associated with the strength and position of the westerly jet and/or the western Pacific subtropical high, both of which play important roles in the spatial distribution of precipitation over eastern China.

Maritime Continent salinity as a new predictor for South Asian summer monsoon rainfall

Maritime Continent salinity as a new predictor for South Asian summer monsoon rainfall

Seesaw between the westerlies and Asian monsoon regulates vegetation and climate during the last deglaciation in southern Northeast China

The history and drivers of hydroclimate changes during the last deglaciation in Northeast China remain contentious. We present a high-resolution record of vegetation and climate changes from Lake Buridun in southern Northeast China (SNEC), spanning the last ∼16 kyr. Multi-proxy reconstruction reveals a slight increase in precipitation prior to the end of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) and forest development during the middle Bølling warming, indicating that hydrothermal conditions regulated regional vegetation. Significant fluctuations in all millennial-scale climatic events underscore the high sensitivity of SNEC to climate change. Our record aligns with high-resolution data from both SNEC and North China, showing a persistent wetting trend during the Bølling-Allerød period. This trend coincides with changes in East Asian summer monsoon intensity and Indo-Pacific warm pool heat content but contrasts with the Greenland temperature records. During the HS1 and Younger Dryas, records show a cold-dry mode in SNEC, contrasting with the cold-wet pattern in central-eastern China caused by the prolonged Meiyu season, which corresponds to the retreat of the monsoon precipitation belt and an enhanced westerly jet. Our data, along with more comprehensive records from broader regions, suggest that hydroclimate in SNEC was dominated by the low-latitude monsoon and the high-latitude westerlies during the warm and cold phases of the last deglaciation, exhibiting a seesaw-like interaction.

A Regional Paleoclimate Record of the Tropical Aeolian Sands during the Last Deglaciation in Hainan, China

The KLD segment of the Kenweiyuan section in Wenchang, Hainan, China is a set of aeolian sand deposits of the Last Deglaciation. The chemical element and heavy mineral analysis performed in this study reveals the chemical index of alteration (CIA) in the segment to be as high as 93–95, with all the heavy minerals identified as stable and extremely stable making up 38–45% of the total. Furthermore, the zircon, tourmaline, and rutile content (ZTR index) of the segment is determined to range between 48–71. The (Al2O3 + TOFE)/SiO2 ratios display obvious fluctuations from old to new strata in the segment, with the low values corresponding to Heinrich event (H1), Dansgaard-Oeschager (D-O), and Younger Dryas (YD) and the high values corresponding to Bølling and Allerød. Our study suggests that these fluctuations are attributed to the alternation of the East Asian winter and summer monsoons. Hainan Island is also impacted by the surface ocean climate of the South China Sea, and characteristics of the KLD segment may be connected to the climate changes in the North Atlantic related to the winter monsoon season or westerlies. Furthermore, the segment presents a clear response to millennium-scale climate changes during the Last Deglaciation on Hainan Island. Based on the high CIA values in the KLD segment, and particularly due to the observed stable detrital minerals, the ratios can be linked to the overall tropical climate, indicating a relatively warm tropical climate environment in the Last Deglaciation in Hainan. The high CIA values also reveal the cause of aeolian sand formation under the tropical environmental conditions in the low latitude region of China in the Late Quaternary.

The collapse of the Ming Dynasty actually began with the Wanli megadrought: Insights from a hydroclimate reconstruction based on tree-ring δ18O over the past 460 years

Climate change has played a pivotal role in shaping Chinese history, especially during the Ming Dynasty. Previous studies have focused primarily on the Chongzhen megadrought, which is widely considered as the primary climatic perturbation behind the demise of the Ming Dynasty. However, relatively little is known about other severe drought events and their potential impact on the dynasty collapse. Additionally, the characteristics of an exceptional climatic anomaly termed the “Late Ming Weak Monsoon Period” are unclear. In this study, we reconstructed the historical variations of Palmer Drought Severity Index for July–September based on tree-ring stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) from 1556 CE to 2015 CE in southwest Chinese Loess Plateau. Our study reveals a significant weakening of the Asian summer monsoon between 1561 CE and 1661 CE, consistent with the Late Ming Weak Monsoon Period, and unravels its structural characteristics in detail. Our reconstruction also captures a distinct humidification trend over northwest China since the early 2000s. Notably, in addition to the well-known Chongzhen megadrought, our study records the severe Wanli megdrought (1585–1590 CE) during the late Ming Dynasty, an event that rarely featured in earlier studies, exhibiting comparable duration and severity to the Chongzhen megadrought. Further analysis indicates that Wanli megadrought may have served as an early trigger for the collapse of the Ming Dynasty. Furthermore, our analysis implicates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation as a contributing factor in both the Wanli and Chongzhen megadroughts, and thus to the ultimate collapse of the Ming Dynasty by affecting the Asian summer monsoon intensity.

Opportunities and barriers for skillful sub-seasonal prediction of East Asian summer precipitation

Abstract Accurate sub-seasonal (2-8 weeks) prediction of monsoon precipitation is crucial for mitigating flood and heatwave disasters caused by intra-seasonal variability (ISV). However, current state-of-the-art sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models have limited prediction skills beyond one week when predicting weekly precipitation. Our findings suggest that predictability primarily arises from strong ISV events, and the prediction skills for ISV events depend on the propagation stability of preceding signals, regardless of models. This allows us to identify opportunities and barriers (OBs) within S2S models, clarifying what the models can and cannot achieve in ISV event prediction. Focusing on the complex East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), we discover that stable propagation of Eurasian and tropical atmospheric wave trains towards East Asia serves as an opportunity. This opportunity offers a one-week leading prediction skill of up to 0.85 and skillful prediction up to 13 days ahead for 43% of all ISV events. However, the Tibetan Plateau barrier highlights the limitation of EASM predictability. Identifying these OBs will help us gain confidence in making more accurate sub-seasonal prediction.

Relationship between south asian summer monsoon and ENSO primarily modulated by ENSO intensity based on two super large ensembles

Relationship between south asian summer monsoon and ENSO primarily modulated by ENSO intensity based on two super large ensembles

Evaluating the Importance of Nitrate‐Containing Aerosols for the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer

AbstractThe Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) convection transports aerosols and their precursors from the boundary layer to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). This process forms an annually recurring aerosol layer near the tropopause. Recent observations have revealed a distinct property of the aerosol layer over the ASM region, it is nitrate‐rich. We present a newly implemented aerosol formation algorithm that enhances the representation of nitrate aerosol in the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) coupled with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The simulated aerosol chemical composition, as well as vertical distributions of aerosol size and mass, are evaluated using in situ and remote sensing observations. The simulated concentrations (ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate) and size distributions are generally within the error bars of data. We find nitrate, organics, and sulfate contribute significantly to the UTLS aerosol concentration between 15°–45°N and 0°–160°E. The two key formation mechanisms of nitrate‐containing aerosols in the ATAL are ammonium neutralization to form ammonium nitrate in regions where convection is active, and condensation of nitric acid in regions of cold temperature. Furthermore, including nitrate formation in the model doubles the surface area density in the tropical tropopause region between 15°–45°N and 0°–160°E, which alters the chlorine partitioning and subsequently impacts the rate of ozone depletion.

Moisture variability in northeast Tibet following the middle Miocene Climate transition

After the middle Miocene Climate transition, global cooling caused substantial hydrological changes in East Asia. Today, many lines of evidence indicate that inland East Asia experienced persistent aridification after the middle Miocene Climate transition. However, chemical weathering records from the South China Sea as well as late-Miocene paleolake expansions in northeastern Tibet contrast with the idea of long-term aridification after the middle Miocene Climate transition. Here, we present manganese-to-iron ratios and clay mineral contents of sediments formed approximately 14 to 10 million years ago from the Guide Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, combined with previously published records (lithology, magnetic susceptibility, redness, and strontium content). Our results show that a paleolake in the Guide Basin expanded between approximately 11.4 and 10.5 million years ago, opposite to the long-term drying trend after the middle Miocene Climate transition. On the 100-kilo-year eccentricity scale, our results demonstrate alternating moisture source variability in northeast Tibet, with precipitation predominantly delivered via the westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon. This variability could potentially be related to the movement of the westerly jet over the Tibetan Plateau. After comparison to climate model simulations, we attribute this movement to astronomical forcing and the waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Industrially induced warming triggered synchronous intensity changes in the East Asian summer and winter monsoons

Anomalies in the East Asian monsoon system significantly disrupt the densely populated East Asian region, underscoring the importance of understanding such changes and improving current predictive abilities. On the basis of instrumental records, previous studies have shown that the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and summer monsoon (EASM) interact with each other. However, owing to the lack of long-term high-resolution EAWM records, it remains unclear how and whether human activity has affected the phase relationship between the EASM and EAWM since the Industrial Revolution. In this study, we present a precisely dated high-resolution EAWM record for the last 300 years from a crater lake in northeastern China. Our results indicate that the EAWM intensity was relatively weak and fluctuated significantly between 1700 and 1850 CE. After 1850 CE, the EAWM strengthened rapidly and exceeded its intensity observed at the end of the Little Ice Age. In addition, a comparison of our reconstructed EAWM record with the published EASM record clearly shows in-phase variations during the Current Warm Period. We concluded that the climatic effects of industrially induced warming enhance the EAWM by slowing the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and increasing the meridional temperature gradient, while also strengthening the EASM by increasing hemispheric meridional gradients and affecting other large-scale processes. Under the sustained intensification of human activity, the EASM and EAWM are likely to continue exhibiting synchronous variations in the future.

Deep stratospheric intrusion events in China revealed on the ground by cosmogenic 10Be/7Be

Given the impact of deep stratospheric intrusion on air quality, the development of more extensive trace substances to quantify stratospheric intrusion intensity can better distinguish between stratospheric ozone pollution and anthropogenic factors. The ratio of cosmogenic beryllium-10 to beryllium-7 (10Be/7Be), primarily generated in the stratosphere, has the potential to identify stratospheric air masses on the ground. Here we constructed a 10Be/7Be time-series (July 2020 to September 2021) in rainwater and aerosols from Xi’an, China. Combining in-situ pollutants, reanalysis data, and model calculations support a stratospheric origin for increased 10Be/7Be and identify it as a means of quantifying intrusion intensity. It was found that anticyclones formed by the Asian summer monsoon drive a sudden increase in deep stratospheric intrusion in spring, exacerbating ozone pollution beyond China’s air quality standards. Based on the sufficiently sensitive 10Be/7Be, it further indicates the process of six weak upper atmosphere intrusions in Xi’an during winter.