Ash Fall Hazard Research Articles

Assessing lava flow susceptibility at neighbouring volcanoes: Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo volcanoes, Virunga Volcanic Province

Assessing volcanic hazards in locations exposed to multiple central volcanoes requires to consider multiple potential eruption sources and their respective characteristics. While this is common practice in ashfall hazard assessment, this is generally not considered for topography-controlled volcanic flow processes. Yet, in volcanic areas with closely spaced volcanic systems, eruptions fed from several contrasted volcanic systems might threaten one given area. Considering the case of the Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes in the Virunga Volcanic Province (D.R.Congo), we present a method to produce a combined lava flow inundation susceptibility map that integrates both volcanoes. The spatial distribution of the probability of vent opening for the next eruption is separately constrained for both volcanoes based on the mapping of historical and pre-historical eruptive vents and fissures. The Q-LavHa lava flow probability model is then calibrated separately for each volcano, considering several historical lava flows of Nyamulagira (2004, 2006, 2010) and Nyiragongo (2002). The maps for the two volcanoes are thereafter integrated based on a weighted sum of both individual lava flow inundation probability maps, assuming historically-based relative eruption frequency of the two volcanoes. The accuracy of this probabilistic susceptibility map for the most active volcanic region in Africa was unfortunately validated by the May 2021 lava flow produced by Nyiragongo. This map was discussed and validated in 2019 with local scientists, as well as representatives of disaster management and urban planning institutions, but was not included in the regional contingency plan ahead of the 2021 eruption crisis. Updating the volcanic crisis and evacuation management plans with this lava flow probability map could contribute to reinforce risk awareness among the population and inform the future development of the city of Goma.

Revisiting the Holocene tephrochronology of northwestern Argentina: Insights from geochemical characterization of the tephras from the Tafí valley

In the southernmost sector of the Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ), spanning from 23° to 28°S, there is an estimated count of 30–40 potentially active volcanoes. Due to its remote location, the primary volcanic threat in this area during explosive eruptions is the dispersal and fallout of tephra. Among various approaches, tephrochronological studies have proven to be the most effective in compiling a comprehensive record of recent explosive eruptions in this region. The intermontane valleys nestled at the eastern foothills of the Andes, situated around 200–300 km from the volcanic arc, harbor a Holocene stratigraphic record containing multiple layers of tephra. These layers are evidence of the recurrence of substantial volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) during recent times, particularly within the last 10,000 years. Improving the tephrochronological knowledge of the southernmost edge of the CVZ constitutes a crucial initial step in evaluating the ash-fall hazard of this region. In this context, the Tafí valley emerges as a prominent candidate for serving as a dependable tephrochronological "anchor point" for regional correlations. Its strength lies in its conspicuous record of Holocene tephras and its well-documented morpho-stratigraphic setting, which has been rigorously constrained by absolute age dating. Despite these advantages, some of the Holocene tephras found within Tafí valley remain uncharacterized in terms of both glass shard and mineral geochemistry. This limitation has consequently hindered their utility in facilitating regional correlations. Thus, we present the glass shard and mineral composition of these uncharacterized Holocene tephras previously identified within Tafí valley. Our findings have not only enhanced regional correlations beyond the Tafí valley but have also provided more precise source constraints. Ultimately, our work represents an upgrade of the Holocene tephrochronological framework of Northwestern Argentina and a stride toward a more reliable assessment of volcanic hazard and risk within the region.

Long-term ash dispersal dataset of the Sakurajima Taisho eruption for ashfall disaster countermeasure

Abstract. A large volcanic eruption can generate large amounts of ash which affect the socio-economic activities of surrounding areas, affecting airline transportation, socio-economics activities, and human health. Accumulated ashfall has devastating impacts on areas surrounding the volcano and in other regions, and eruption scale and weather conditions may escalate ashfall hazards to wider areas. It is crucial to discover places with a high probability of exposure to ashfall deposition. Here, as a reference for ashfall disaster countermeasures, we present a dataset containing the estimated distributions of the ashfall deposit and airborne ash concentration, obtained from a simulation of ash dispersal following a large-scale explosive volcanic eruption. We selected the Taisho (1914) eruption of the Sakurajima volcano, as our case study. This was the strongest eruption in Japan in the last century, and our study provides a baseline for a worst-case scenario. We employed one eruption scenario (OES) approach by replicating the actual event under various extended weather conditions to show how it would affect contemporary Japan. We generated an ash dispersal dataset by simulating the ash transport of the Taisho eruption scenario using a volcanic ash dispersal model and meteorological reanalysis data for 64 years (1958–2021). We explain the dataset production and provide the dataset in multiple formats for broader audiences. We examine the validity of the dataset, its limitations, and its uncertainties. Countermeasure strategies can be derived from this dataset to reduce ashfall risk. The dataset is available at the DesignSafe-CI Data Depot: https://www.designsafe-ci.org/data/browser/public/designsafe.storage.published/PRJ-2848v2 or through the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.17603/ds2-vw5f-t920 by selecting Version 2 (Rahadianto and Tatano, 2020).

Ash fall hazard maps for a large-scale eruption of Sakurajima volcano considering daily wind fields over a one-year period

Ash fall hazard maps for a large-scale eruption of Sakurajima volcano considering daily wind fields over a one-year period

Modeling Ash Dispersal From Future Eruptions of Taupo Supervolcano

AbstractHazard analysis at caldera volcanoes is challenging due to the wide range of eruptive and environmental conditions that can plausibly occur during renewed activity. Taupo volcano, New Zealand, is a frequently active and productive rhyolitic caldera volcano that has hosted the world's youngest known supereruption and numerous smaller explosive events. To assess ashfall hazard from future eruptions, we have simulated atmospheric ash dispersal using the Ash3d model. We consider five eruption scenarios spanning magma volumes of 0.1–500 km3 and investigate the main factors governing ash dispersal in modern atmospheric conditions. Our results are examined in the context of regional synoptic weather patterns (Kidson types) that provide a framework for assessing the variability of ashfall distribution in different wind fields. For the smallest eruptions (~0.1‐km3 magma), ashfall thicknesses >1 cm are largely confined to the central North Island, with dispersal controlled by day‐to‐day weather and the dominance of westerly winds. With increasing eruptive volume (1–5‐km3 magma), ashfall thicknesses >1 cm would likely reach major population centers throughout the North Island. Dispersal is less dependent on weather patterns as the formation of a radially expanding umbrella cloud forces ash upwind or crosswind, although strong stratospheric winds significantly restrict umbrella spreading. For large eruptions (50–500‐km3 magma), powerful expansion of the umbrella cloud results in widespread ashfall at damaging thicknesses (>10 cm) across most of the North Island and top of the South Island. Synoptic climatology may prove a useful additional technique for long‐term hazard planning at caldera volcanoes.

Newspaper reporting of the April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise, part 2: framing the hazard

An analysis of the front pages of 120 consecutive editions of the local newspaper for the island of La Réunion (France), “Le Journal de L’Ile de La Réunion”, published before, during and after the April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise reveals that its front page is an ideal vehicle for maximizing information delivery and recall during a volcanic eruption. Supported by flash tests, and by cross-checking with a content analysis of information given within the newspaper, we find that the front page is an effective gauge for the hazard frame which, for the case examined here, involved six volcanic hazards (pit-crater collapse, lava flows, gas, air fall, ocean entry lava flow and bench collapse), as well as the issue of evacuation. We found that crater collapse and lava flow hazards were framed using their natural colors and clear imagery of the phenomenon, tied to context-setting explanations within the newspaper. However, for lava flows in particular there was an element of spectacle and promotion of sightseeing, with photographs always featuring sightseers invariably taking photographs. After the end of the eruption reporting became almost entirely focused on tourists and sightseeing. Gas and ash fall hazard were framed using images and words of the victims, so that it became worrying and frightening, and associated with panic. As a result, the volcano itself became portrayed as a monster, and the situation for the impacted population became “apocalyptic” and “hellish”. This probably contributed to the evacuation measures being described as confused and pointless, with the morale of the impacted population suffering accordingly. The ocean entry and bench collapse had no frame at all, and became associated with the dead, exotic fish that were collected; this hazard thus being framed as an interesting curiosity rather than a volcanic hazard. The front page-tracking model followed here could guide future educative measures during volcanic crises by quickly identifying, on the basis of front page analysis, hazards that are appropriately conveyed versus those that are poorly portrayed. Responses to rectify a poor frame can include reactive scientific advertising, a route that is used commonly by businesses seeking to boost sales by taking timely advantage of a developing newspaper frame, and distribution of appropriately designed and timed press releases.

Fragility Assessment of Vinyl Greenhouses and Livestock Sheds Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damage to vinyl greenhouses and livestock sheds among common agricultural facilities in South Korea. The fragility functions are derived through the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on the thickness distribution of volcanic ash observed in the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens in the USA and on agricultural facility codes and specifications in South Korea. In this study, the volcanic ash fragility functions evaluated represent the conditional probability of failure of vinyl greenhouses and livestock sheds over the full range of volcanic ash loads. For the evaluation, 4 types (i.e., automated, single span, tree crop, and double span types) of multi-hazard resisting vinyl greenhouses and 3 types (i.e., standard, coastal, and mountain types) of livestock sheds conventionally utilized in South Korea are considered. All volcanic ash fragility functions estimated in this study are fitted using parameters of the lognormal CDF (cumulative distribution function), and the obtained parameters are compiled into a database for use in the future. The volcanic ash fragility functions developed in this study are intended to be used to evaluate potential risks and losses from volcanic eruptions around the Korean Peninsula.

Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g. short-term forecasting). The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

A full holocene tephrochronology for the Kamchatsky Peninsula region: Applications from Kamchatka to North America

Geochemically fingerprinted widespread tephra layers serve as excellent marker horizons which can directly link and synchronize disparate sedimentary archives and be used for dating various deposits related to climate shifts, faulting events, tsunami, and human occupation. In addition, tephras represent records of explosive volcanic activity and permit assessment of regional ashfall hazard. In this paper we report a detailed Holocene tephrochronological model developed for the Kamchatsky Peninsula region of eastern Kamchatka (NW Pacific) based on ∼2800 new electron microprobe analyses of single glass shards from tephra samples collected in the area as well as on previously published data. Tephra ages are modeled based on a compilation of 223 14C dates, including published dates for Shiveluch proximal tephra sequence and regional marker tephras; new AMS 14C dates; and modeled calibrated ages from the Krutoberegovo key site. The main source volcanoes for tephra in the region are Shiveluch and Kliuchevskoi located 60–100 km to the west. In addition, local tephra sequences contain two tephras from the Plosky volcanic massif and three regional marker tephras from Ksudach and Avachinsky volcanoes located in the Eastern volcanic front of Kamchatka. This tephrochronological framework contributes to the combined history of environmental change, tectonic events, and volcanic impact in the study area and farther afield. This study is another step in the construction of the Kamchatka-wide Holocene tephrochronological framework under the same methodological umbrella. Our dataset provides a research reference for tephra and cryptotephra studies in the northwest Pacific, the Bering Sea, and North America.

A1-15 福島第一原発サイトにおける過去30万年間の降灰頻度(福島の火山,口頭発表)

A1-15 福島第一原発サイトにおける過去30万年間の降灰頻度(福島の火山,口頭発表)

Interdependence and dynamics of essential services in an extensive risk context: a case study in Montserrat, West Indies

Abstract. The essential services that support urban living are complex and interdependent, and their disruption in disasters directly affects society. Yet there are few empirical studies to inform our understanding of the vulnerabilities and resilience of complex infrastructure systems in disasters. This research takes a systems thinking approach to explore the dynamic behaviour of a network of essential services, in the presence and absence of volcanic ashfall hazards in Montserrat, West Indies. Adopting a case study methodology and qualitative methods to gather empirical data, we centre the study on the healthcare system and its interconnected network of essential services. We identify different types of relationship between sectors and develop a new interdependence classification system for analysis. Relationships are further categorised by hazard conditions, for use in extensive risk contexts. During heightened volcanic activity, relationships between systems transform in both number and type: connections increase across the network by 41%, and adapt to increase cooperation and information sharing. Interconnections add capacities to the network, increasing the resilience of prioritised sectors. This in-depth and context-specific approach provides a new methodology for studying the dynamics of infrastructure interdependence in an extensive risk context, and can be adapted for use in other hazard contexts.

Fragility Assessment of Agricultural Facilities Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

Abstract This paper presents findings from the assessment of the volcanic ash fragility for multi-hazard resisting vinyl greenhouse and livestock shed among the agricultural facilities. The volcanic ash fragility was evaluated by using a combination of the FOSM (first-order second-moment) method, available statistics of volcanic load, facility specifications, and building code. In this study, the evaluated volcanic ash fragilities represent the conditional probability of failure of the agricultural facilities over the full range of volcanic ash loads. For the evaluation, 6 types(ie., 2 single span, 2 tree crop, and 2 double span types) of multi-hazard resisting vinyl greenhouses and 3 types(ie., standard, coast, and mountain types) of livestock sheds are considered. All volcanic ash fragilities estimated in this study were fitted by using parameters of the GEV(generalized extreme value) distribution function, and the obtained parameters were complied into a database to be used in future. The volcanic ash fragilities obtained in this study are planning to be used to evaluate risk by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdu erupts.

Volcanic ashfall preparedness poster series: a collaborative process for reducing the vulnerability of critical infrastructure

Volcanic ashfall can be damaging and disruptive to critical infrastructure including electricity generation, transmission and distribution networks, drinking-water and wastewater treatment plants, roads, airports and communications networks. There is growing evidence that a range of preparedness and mitigation strategies can reduce ashfall impacts for critical infrastructure organisations. This paper describes a collaborative process used to create a suite of ten posters designed to improve the resilience of critical infrastructure organisations to volcanic ashfall hazards. Key features of this process were: 1) a partnership between critical infrastructure managers and other relevant government agencies with volcanic impact scientists, including extensive consultation and review phases; and 2) translation of volcanic impact research into practical management tools. Whilst these posters have been developed specifically for use in New Zealand, we propose that this development process has more widely applicable value for strengthening volcanic risk resilience in other settings.

Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology

Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region

Regional ash fall hazard II: Asia-Pacific modelling results and implications

In a companion paper (this volume), the authors propose a methodology for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. In this study, the methodology is applied to the Asia-Pacific region, determining the hazard from 190 volcanoes to over one million square kilometre of urban area. Ash fall hazard is quantified for each square kilometre grid cell of urban area in terms of the annual exceedance probability (AEP), and its inverse, the average recurrence interval (ARI), for ash falls exceeding 1, 10 and 100 mm. A surrogate risk variable, the Population-Weighted Hazard Score: the product of AEP and population density, approximates the relative risk for each grid cell. Within the Asia-Pacific region, urban areas in Indonesia are found to have the highest levels of hazard and risk, while Australia has the lowest. A clear demarcation emerges between the hazard in countries close to and farther from major subduction plate boundaries, with the latter having ARIs at least 2 orders of magnitude longer for the same thickness thresholds. Countries with no volcanoes, such as North Korea and Malaysia, also face ash falls from volcanoes in neighbouring countries. Ash falls exceeding 1 mm are expected to affect more than one million people living in urban areas within the study region; in Indonesia, Japan and the Philippines, this situation could occur with ARIs less than 40 years.

The ash-fall hazard from a Plinian eruption at Colima Volcano, Mexico

The historical eruptive activity at Colima Volcano has been characterized by Strombolian and Merapi type eruptions and Vulcanian explosions associated with dome growth, which have ended in a Plinian eruption about every 100 years. The situation now prevailing at Colima Volcano is similar to that which preceded these explosive eruptions, when a dome fills the crater. This study proposes seven scenarios for the ash-fall from a Plinian eruption, based on historical eruptive activity, isopach thickness from the 1913 Plinian eruption, land use, socioeconomic data, and a 15-year statistical wind study realized with daily radiosonde data grouped according to four altitudinal levels: 4,000-9,000 (I); 9,000-14,000 (II); 14,000-17,000 (III) and 17,000-28,000 (IV) m a.s.l., based on common wind speeds and directions. We have integrated the wind distribution at level IV and estimated the ash dispersion for a Plinian eruption. From January to March, the main impact would be towards the northeast, in April and in October, towards the east, in May, towards the north-northeast or north-northwest, from June to August, towards the northwest, in September, towards the west, and in November and December, towards the west-southwest. The fallout would damage the coniferous forests of the Colima National Park, two lagoons and three lakes. More than 30 million people living in Guadalajara, Mexico City, Leon and Colima would suffer eye, respiratory and skin problems. The proximal areas, such as Ciudad Guzman, would be subject to roof collapsing and communication problems. The agricultural and livestock sectors would suffer severe financial losses. The Queseria sugar mill, the Atenquique paper mill, and the cement plants in Zapotiltic would halt work due to chimney obstruction and machinery abrasion. Four thermoelectric plants, twenty airports and four commercial ports would be affected if the eruption occurs in summer.

Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.

A Monte Carlo methodology for modelling ashfall hazards

We have developed a methodology for quantifying the probability of particular thicknesses of tephra at any given site, using Monte Carlo methods. This is a part of the development of a probabilistic volcanic hazard model (PVHM) for New Zealand, for hazards planning and insurance purposes. We use an established program (ASHFALL) to model individual eruptions, where the likely thickness of ash deposited at selected sites depends on the location of the volcano, eruptive volume, column height and ash size, and the wind conditions. A Monte Carlo procedure allows us to simulate the variations in eruptive volume and in wind conditions by analysing repeat eruptions, each time allowing the parameters to vary randomly according to known or assumed distributions. Actual wind velocity profiles are used, with randomness included by selection of a starting date. This method can handle the effects of multiple volcanic sources, each source with its own characteristics. We accumulate the tephra thicknesses from all sources to estimate the combined ashfall hazard, expressed as the frequency with which any given depth of tephra is likely to be deposited at selected sites. These numbers are expressed as annual probabilities or as mean return periods. We can also use this method for obtaining an estimate of how often and how large the eruptions from a particular volcano have been. Results from sediment cores in Auckland give useful bounds for the likely total volumes erupted from Egmont Volcano (Mt. Taranaki), 280 km away, during the last 130,000 years.