Arellano-Bond Estimator Research Articles

Reconsidering the impact of environmental, social and governance practices on firm profitability

PurposeThis paper investigates the relationship between commitment to ESG practices and firm performance using a synthetic index based on ESG disclosure and ESG performance scores.Design/methodology/approachUsing the Mazziotta-Pareto aggregation method, we develop a novel synthetic index of ESG engagement based on ESG rating and disclosure. This index is employed in a dynamic panel regression, implemented using the Arellano-Bond estimator, to explain profitability in a sample of 146 listed Canadian firms over the period spanning from 2014 to 2021.FindingsESG practices may either foster or hinder firm performance. In particular, a synergy emerges between the social and environmental dimensions of ESG practices, shedding light on the relevance of high standards in terms of environmental and social activities.Practical implicationsThe study emphasizes the significance of acknowledging the various facets of ESG engagement and the necessity of transcending the current constraints of accessible ESG data and ratings. Synthetic indices combining different types of ESG information may contribute to mitigating the problems created by strategic disclosure on the part of firms, which typically results in undesirable practices such as greenwashing and social washing.Originality/valueThis is the first study that applies the Mazziotta-Pareto method to develop a synthetic index of ESG engagement, tackling each pillar separately. Moreover, when investigating the effect of ESG engagement on profitability, we allow for cross-pillar synergies and/or trade-offs.

The Influence of Board Characteristics on Corporate Social Performance

This paper explores the relationship between relevant board characteristics and the corporate social performance represented by the Social pillar of ESG scores. By applying the generalised method of moments (GMM) system version of the Arellano-Bond estimator, we analyse the 50 biggest and most traded companies in the Eurozone from 2015 to 2022. Our empirical evidence shows that more gender-diverse and independent boards, as well as the presence of a CSR sustainability committee, enhance corporate social performance. These results are largely confirmed by investigating the four sub-pillars of Social score, i.e. Human Rights, Workforce, Product Responsibility, and Community. To our knowledge, this paper is the first to highlight how high corporate governance standards positively affect the Social pillar in the Euro Stoxx 50 index context. Our findings provide important implications for several stakeholders, including regulators and policymakers. Increasing attention should be paid to board characteristics to improve corporate social performance.

Profit shifting to tax havens: Withholding tax impact on passive flows from Poland

This paper aims to identify determinants and channels of tax avoidance through passive flows to tax havens using harmful tax competition, considering the effect of changes in withholding tax regulations. For the empirical analysis, we exploit the data of 110 ​907 nonresidents from 134 countries that gain passive flows paid by Polish taxpayers. We utilise data from IFT-2R returns on withholding tax (WHT) for 2012–2019. We use a two-stage Arellano-Bond estimator of the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) with instrumental variables for dynamic panel data and the difference-in-differences method. We show that the amendment to the withholding tax legislation, preceded by a no-avoidance clause in 2017, reduced passive flows overall and separately from the manufacturing and service sectors, primarily profit-shifting through interest, royalties and intangible services payments. Moreover, our results confirm that the tax system tightening against aggressive tax competition has reduced passive income transfers from service companies, not manufacturing companies. Instead, the latter make higher transfers to tax havens included in both Polish and the E.U. list of countries applying harmful tax competition.

ESG controversies and profitability in the European banking sector

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Controversies and bank profitability. We analyze an unbalanced panel sample of European banks between 2015 and 2022, implementing the GMM-SYS version of the Arellano-Bond estimator for dynamic panels. The study results indicate that banks featuring more ESG controversies perform better in terms of Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Net Interest Margin. This sheds light on the potentially opportunistic behavior of credit institutions, which appear to prioritize profitability over ESG Controversies.

Examining the relationship between public debt and private consumption in European OECD countries (2011–2020)

<abstract> <p>This study examined the impact of public debt on private consumption in 26 European Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries from 2011 to 2020. Analyzing data from OECD, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund reports, we employed various statistical methods, including correlation analysis, linear regression, fixed effect, random effect, and the Generalized Method of Moments model via the Arellano-Bond estimation approach. Our findings indicated that public debt, foreign direct investments, inflation, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth positively influence private consumption, while gross fixed capital formation and exports of goods and services have a negative impact. The study underscores the need for careful consideration of the repercussions of public debt on citizens' daily lives, especially in terms of private consumption, emphasizing the crucial need for policymakers to consider the delicate balance between public debt management and sustainable economic growth in OECD countries for shaping effective economic policies that foster responsible debt management to support long-term economic development.</p> </abstract>

Do Board Characteristics Affect Banks’ Environmental Performance?

This study empirically investigates the relationship between board characteristics (board size, board independence, Corporate Social Responsibility sustainability committee, board gender diversity, CEO duality, board-specific skills) and environmental performance (emissions, environmental innovation and resource use) of a sample of banks from different countries. In detail, we use an unbalanced panel dataset of 1,644 observations for 311 banks from the United States, Europe, the UK and Canada, over the period between 2015 and 2020. Through the Fixed Effect panel model and the generalized method of moments system version of the Arellano-Bond estimator, we find that both the percentage of women on boards and the presence of the CSR sustainability committee enhance the banks’ environmental performance. These findings are confirmed by all three sub-pillars of environmental performance, that is, emissions, environmental innovation and resource use. Our results shed light on the role that certain board characteristics play in improving the environmental performance of banks.

How frequent and visible criminal violence affects housing prices: evidence from Mexico City (2007–2011)

PurposeBetween 2006 and 2012, Mexico implemented a “frontal war against organized crime”. This strategy increased criminal violence and triggered negative consequences across the country’s economic, political and social spheres. This study aims to analyse how the magnitude and visibility of criminal violence impact the housing market of Mexico City.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used different violent proxies to measure the effect of the magnitude and visibility of violence in housing prices. The structure of the data set is an unbalanced panel with no conditions of strict exogeneity. To address endogeneity, the authors calculate the first differences to estimate an Arellano–Bond estimator and use the lags of the dependent variable to instrumentalise the endogenous variable.FindingsResults suggest that the magnitude of violence negatively impacts housing prices. Similarly, housing prices are negatively affected the closer the property is to visible violence, measured through narcomessages placed next to the bodies of executed victims. Lastly, housing prices are not always affected when a violent event occurs nearby, specifically, when neighbours or potential buyers consider this event as sporadic violence.Originality/valueThere are only a few studies of violence in housing prices using data from developing countries, and most of these studies are conducted with aggregated data at the municipality or state level. The authors are using geocoded information, both violence events and housing prices, to estimate more disaggregated effects. Moreover, the authors used different proxies to measure different characteristics of violence (magnitude and visibility) to estimate the heterogeneous effects of violence on housing prices.

The Relationship between Public Expenditure and Private Investment in Developed and Developing Economies: Policy Implications Based on the Difference

ublic spending is one effective instrument of fiscal policy in both developed and developing countries. Governments use it to overcome the cyclicality of the economy and to run the economy. However, it can crowd in or crowd out private investment. Is there a difference in the public expenditure – private investment relationship between developed and developing countries? This study looks for an answer by empirically investigating the effect of public expenditure on private investment for a group of 36 developed countries and a group of 98 developing countries from 2002 to 2019. The results by the two-step difference GMM Arellano-Bond estimator seem to be counter-intuitive. Public expenditure crowds out private investment in developed countries but crowds in it in developing countries. The study uses the FE-IV estimator and the PGM estimator to check the robustness of these estimates. The study suggests some arguments to explain the validity of the counter-intuitive results and policy implications for governments in both developed and developing countries.

Long- and short-term analysis on the Human Development Index in West Nusa Tenggara

Purpose — With the low human development index in West Nusa Tenggara, this study is intended to analyze important factors in increasing the Human Development Index in an area.Method — This research combined cross-sectional data consisting of 10 regencies and cities in West Nusa Tenggara and time-series data from 2016 to 2020. In addition, a series of model tests were carried out. This research employed the Arellano-bond estimator for the dynamic panel estimation, which used first-difference (FDGMM) with robust standard error.Result — We found that the previous year's Human Development Index, poverty rate, and GDRB significantly increased the human development index in West Nusa Tenggara, especially in the short term. Meanwhile, in the long run, all variables do not affect the human development index in West Nusa Tenggara. In addition, this study revealed that the previous year's HDI, poverty rate, and GRDP only affected the short term. Moreover, long-term policies are needed to increase the HDI in West Nusa Tenggara, such as increasing community capacity, health assistance, price stabilization, and creating new jobs.Contribution — This study clarifies in practice the need for differentiating poverty reduction strategies according to their duration. This is because short-term interventions have little long-term impact on reducing poverty.

A case and framework for expanding the use of model‐free evidence

A case and framework for expanding the use of model‐free evidence

The effect of inflation on income inequality: Evidence from a non-linear dynamic panel data analysis in indonesia

This research investigates the impact of inflation on income inequality in Indonesia. This study is part of a comprehensive examination investigating which monetary policy can be utilized to lessen inequality. As a central bank objective, inflation can influence the distribution of income, wealth, and endogenous consumption, hence defining inequality. This study employed dynamic panel data analysis for linear autoregressive data using the generalized method of moments (GMM) for both first differences GMM (FD-GMM or AB-GMM) and system GMM (Sys-GMM or BB-GMM) with regional data from 58 cities in 2010-2020. The Arellano-Bond estimator reveals a positive and statistically significant association between inflation and inequality. When inflation rises, the purchasing power of the poor will decline, while the wealthiest will benefit as their non-cash assets proliferate. This study finds, indirectly, that Indonesia’s monetary policy can play a crucial role in lowering income distribution gaps. As one of the nations with an inflation-targeting framework, the Indonesian Central Bank can target the inflation rate by considering inequality. The ITF becomes the most effective monetary policy for stabilizing prices and promoting economic stability. The ITF reduces income inequality by reducing inflation rates. The study also finds that, similar to other emerging nations, economic growth in Indonesia exacerbates inequality. Poverty can be reduced by increased economic growth, but the positive impact of development on the wealthy is significantly more significant than on the poor. Therefore, economic expansion increases inequality.

Impact of ICT on regional supply chains in CEECs

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the impact of information and communication technologies and their availability in the Central and Eastern European countries that are members of the EU on regional value chains and regional supply chain management and logistics in CEECs in the context of the growing e-commerce industry.Methodology: We used a balanced data panel of 11 countries over 9 years (2011-2019) to examine the impact of ICT indicators on regional supply chains. Th e analysis included the ordinal Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the panel GMM method, which accounts for endogeneity. We implemented the Arellano-Bond estimator within the GMM framework, considering the ordinal nature of the dependent variable. This approach allowed for an effective analysis of the complex relationships in the data, considering the panel structure and the individual country observations.Results: The findings indicate that the hypothesis claiming that the integration of digital technologies in supply chains in CEEs leads to statistically significant improvements in efficiency, controllability, and cost-effectiveness, cannot be rejected. Enhanced communication, collaboration, and overall logistics performance have led to increased customer satisfaction. Additionally, the study shows a positive correlation between ICT infrastructure and logistics performance, emphasizing the crucial role of digital innovations in shaping supply chain dynamics.Conclusion: Th e study supports the hypothesis that integrating digital technologies into supply chain management in Central and Eastern Europe is associated with enhanced efficiency, resilience, and economic integration through value-added export. Th ese insights offer pathways to foster economic integration in the region.

The effect of remittance inflows on inflation in developing economies

Inflation is a topic of great debate among economists due to its positive and negative effects on the economy. Remittance inflow is a crucial source of capital that is always welcomed by developing economies for its contribution to economic development and growth. However, remittance flows can increase inflation, resulting in negative effects on the economy. Therefore, the research question is: does remittance inflow increase inflation in developing economies? For the answer, the paper employs a two-step difference GMM Arellano-Bond estimator to study the effect of remittance inflow on inflation in 88 developing economies between 2002 and 2021. The robustness of estimates is tested by the defactored instrumental variables estimation. The results report that remittance inflow reduces inflation in developing economies. Furthermore, money supply and trade openness boost inflation, while economic growth decreases it. These findings suggest some policy implications for governments in developing economies in attracting remittance inflows as a channel to control inflation, thus contributing significantly to promoting economic activities in the country.

Counter-cyclical Fiscal Policy in Developed Countries: Does Governance Hinder?

Fiscal policy is an effective instrument in helping governments in developed countries overcome a recession with a high unemployment rate or a hot economy with a high inflation rate to keep the economy on a stable path. Does governance contribute significantly to keeping this goal in these countries? The study looks for an answer by empirically investigating the role of governance in the output gap - fiscal policy relationship for a group of 27 developed countries between 2002 and 2019. It employs the difference GMM Arellano-Bond estimators and the PMG estimator for estimation and robustness check. The results provide some interesting findings. Firstly, both public spending and government revenue are counter-cyclical, confirming the counter-cyclical fiscal policy in developed countries. Secondly, governance hinders the counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The findings imply some crucial policies for governments in developed countries in running the fiscal policy.

Determinants of life expectancy at birth: a longitudinal study on OECD countries

This paper analyses the influence of several determinants on life expectancy at birth in 36 OECD countries over the 1999–2018 period. We utilized a cross-country fixed-effects multiple regression analysis with year and country dummies and used dynamic models, backward stepwise selection, and Arellano–Bond estimators to treat potential endogeneity issues. The results show the influence of per capita health-care expenditure, incidence of out-of-pocket expenditure, physician density, hospital bed density, social spending, GDP level, participation ratio to labour, prevalence of chronic respiratory diseases, temperature, and total size of the population on life expectancy at birth. In line with previous studies, this analysis confirms the relevance of both health care expenditure and health care system (physicians and hospital beds in our analysis) in influencing a country’s population life expectancy. It also outlines the importance of other factors related to population behaviour and social spending jointly considered on this outcome. Policy makers should carefully consider these mutual influences when allocating public funds, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic period.

ESG controversies and governance: Evidence from the banking industry

This study empirically investigates the relationship between the Governance pillar of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) dynamics and ESG Controversies. We include the three sub-pillars of ESG Governance (ESG Management, ESG Shareholders, and ESG CSR Strategy). Applying the generalized method of moments (GMM) system version of the Arellano-Bond estimator, we analyse a panel dataset of 567 listed banks from United States and Europe, over the period 2016–2021. The findings show a positive and statistically significant relationship between ESG Governance and ESG Controversies scores. Furthermore, we find that these results are confirmed by all three sub-pillars of ESG Governance.

Asymmetric effects of foreign capital on income inequality: The case of the Post-China 16 countries

This study empirically tests for the heterogeneous effects of foreign capital inflow on income distribution, measured by the Gini index, in the Post-China 16 (PC16) countries between 1995 and 2017. In the benchmark model, we apply fixed- and random-effects models. As an alternative model, we use a dynamic panel model based on the Arellano–Bond estimator and autoregressive distributed lag model. We investigate the effects of total foreign capital inflow and individual types of foreign capital (foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and other investments), including their equity and debt subcategories. Our results show that the foreign capital inflow to the PC16 countries offers economic benefits only to specific income groups. FDI does not have statistically significant effects on income inequality, but portfolio investment makes income distribution more heterogeneous, and other investments reduce income differences. In addition, we find that income differences are increased by debt-type FDI and portfolio debt investment. In the short run, the effects of debt-type FDI, portfolio debt investment, and other investment inflows are significantly reduced. Finally, debt-type FDI increases income inequality more in countries with higher gross domestic product and human development index values, whereas the poorest and least developed countries use the debt portfolio capital such that it increases income inequality.

Does Economic Globalisation Harm Climate? New Evidence from European Union

The issue of globalisation-induced greenhouse gas emissions is an ongoing topic and a major challenge to the EU climate goals of achieving non-zero emissions by 2050. In the light of this ongoing debate on the globalisation–environment nexus, the paper examines the impact of economic globalisation on climate in EU countries over the period 2000–2019 and provide some new empirical evidence. After applying the panel cointegration analysis and the Granger causality test, the dynamic panel analysis is performed for 26 EU countries using the Arellano–Bond estimator. For the policy perspective, the analysed sample of countries is grouped into two subpanels according to their level of development—EU countries with above-average and below-average GDP per capita. After testing the effects of different dimensions of economic globalisation and environmental taxes on GHG emissions, the results revealed the following: (1) Trade globalisation is detrimental to the climate, as trade openness significantly increases emissions in both country groups. Financial globalisation has a weaker impact and increases emissions only in below-average countries, suggesting that FDI inflows could be important for the transfer of green technologies when a country reaches higher development level. (2) Passenger transport reduces GHG emissions in both groups of countries, while FDI are beneficiary for the climate in above-average countries. (3) Environmental taxes as a proxy for environmental policy show statistically significant results, but with different outcomes in the two groups; they have a negative impact on emissions in countries that are below the GDP p/c average, indicating the shortcomings of the tax system in addressing climate change. (4) The total energy consumption increases emissions in both country groups and, thus, harms the climate. Therefore, despite the current unfavourable circumstances, EU countries should continue to expand the green economy, increase energy consumption from renewables, and develop low-carbon technologies that do not depend on imported fossil fuels.

The Effect of Health Expenditure on Life Expectancy

With this paper, we aim to analyse the effect of health expenditures and funding on the national life expectancy of OECD countries. We considered the influence of exogenous factors such as health expenditure, GDP per capita and productivity, population, infant mortality rates, potential years of life lost, deaths from cancer and the suicide rate. We used secondary data gathered between 2005 to 2018 from the annual reports of the OECD, the IMF and the World Bank. To derive the empirical results, econometric models such as linear regression, random effect, fixed effect, Hausman - Taylor Regression, GMM Model - Arellano Bond Estimation, Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE Model) and linear trend analysis through the historical and comparative method were used. Results show that health expenditures positively affect the national life expectancy of OECD countries, showing the impact and causality of national longevity in OECD countries.

The effect of crime on adolescent fertility in Colombia

The purpose of this work is to explore the role of violent crime on adolescent fertility choices. It reviews the hypothesis that violent crime shortens life expectancy, which leads individuals to make earlier decisions about childbearing. We model the adolescent fertility rate (AFR) for the 10-14 and 15-19 years age groups separately. We use a panel data set for Colombia at department level from 2003 to 2014, using Arellano-Bond estimator with department fixed effects. The empirical findings suggest that crime has a positive effect on AFR among adolescent aged 15-19, and is statistically significant at 10%. The results of this paper contribute to explaining the connection between crime and fertility choices in Colombia. It provides further insight into the different factors affecting AFR, and stimulates public debate on the need to strengthen the country’s institutions and to ensure access to quality education and the promotion of early interventions programs.