Area Of International Trade Research Articles

Enhancing forecast accuracy using combination methods for the hierarchical time series approach.

This study aims to investigate whether combining forecasts generated from different models can improve forecast accuracy rather than individual models using the hierarchical time series. Various approaches of hierarchical forecasting have been considered; a bottom-up, top-down, and an optimal combination approach. Autoregressive moving averages (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ETS) were used as forecasting models in creating forecasting for all levels in the hierarchy to show the effect of different forecasting methods for each hierarchical model. The results indicated that the Minimum Trace Sample estimator (MinT-Sample) and the bottom-up approaches with the ARIMA model have good predictive performance than other approaches. Moreover, the forecasts from the MinT-Sample and bottom-up approaches were combined using five different combining methods. The experimental results showed that the (AC) method is superior to all other combining methods and more accurate than other individual models at level zero (international total trade in Egypt) and level one (total exports, and total imports). So, combining forecasts generated from different models by hierarchical time series leads to more accurate forecasting of the value of imports and exports which will improve the overall international trade performance, and that is through using the forecasting values of imports and exports to plan for improving the trade balance and drawing up a more efficient production policy. Finally, the study recommends using hierarchical forecasting methods in the areas of international trade, and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry could adopt the results of this study to produce precise forecasts for international trade. Moreover, the results of this study are to be a guide for the researchers to apply these approaches in other fields to improve the performance of forecasting.

Latin America and the Caribbean’s Productivity: The Role of Pro-Market Policies, Institutions, Infrastructure, and Natural Resource Endowments

This paper examines the role played by pro-market policies, institutions, natural resources, and infrastructure on the total factor productivity (TFP) of twenty Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 2000–2018. In estimating the TFP, we use the Färe-Primont index based on DEA. We have verified cointegration and estimated the long-run parameters by the grouped-mean FMOLS estimator. For measuring the impact of institutions, natural resources, and infrastructure, we have used the Productive Capacity Indexes of UNCTAD. We found a positive effect of all these variables on the TFP. Natural resources and energy play the most important role. Followed by information and communication technology and institutions quality. Transport infrastructure has played a minor role. The pro-market policies have been measured by the Fraser Institute indexes. We verified the positive impact of pro-market policies in the area of international trade and financial openness through six different variables. Finally, we considered three areas to measure the impact of domestic regulations and policies; credit, labor and business. We could verify a positive impact of credit and business pro-market policies, but we did not get statistically significant results from the labor regulations index.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on India’s Exports and Imports (With Reference to Selected Principal Commodities of Agricultural and Manufacture Sectors)

Actually from the years of evolution till the very recent covid-19 pandemic, trade has evolved and changed theme scenario of various things in the entire globe. From monopoly to perfect competition, from domestic to global trading and again back to the local trading due to covid-19 pandemic situations changed. The cultural, political, monetary, social development have been possible due to trade in the world and if at all trade is stopped it may hinder the economic growth and smooth relations. Recently India introduced its new foreign trade policy for 2021-2026 intending to become an economy of USD 5 trillion along with making India a superior in the area of International trade. Covid -19 pandemic led trade disruption worldwide, but the agricultural and food sector proved to be more resilient than other sectors of the economy. Whereas the scale of disruption has significantly affected business and manufacturing is no exception and it has had implication on production, demand supply chain. In this context, an attempt has been made in this paper to enlighten the overall India’s exports and imports from 2016-2021and also focus on the imports and exports of principle agricultural commodities as well as manufacturing commodities. The study also tries to undertake the immediate and potential impact of pandemic on exports and imports of India.

International cooperation USA in biological and biotechnological R&D: directional dynamics and spatial structure

The long dominance of the United States of America in many areas of international trade has determined its central place in the global market for biological and biotechnological research and development, the implementation of which in various regions and countries of the world is controlled not only by the federal government, but also by transnational corporations and non- profit international organizations affiliated with the United States. Considering the complexity of studying trade and intermediary chains in a globalized world, the author made an attempt to study the industry dynamics and spatial structure of US international cooperation in the field of biological and biotechnological R&D since the early 1950s. and until 2020 based on the results of an economic and statistical analysis of the absolute and relative indicators of their financing by various American customers. The data obtained made it possible to identify a number of structural and dynamic trends in the cooperation under study in the context of specific areas. Based on the well-known theoretical and factual data, confirmed by the empirical results of this study, the fundamental importance of the US expansion in the field of biological and biotechnological R&D, which is constantly growing in time and expanding in the world space, is seen as one of the tools for preserving by the largest American business and power not only economic, but also political influence, through the stabilization of the "American-centric" world- system, the stability of which is under threat.

Emerging Powers, Leadership, and South–South Solidarity: The Battle Over Special and Differential Treatment at the WTO

AbstractEmerging powers, such as China and India, have used claims of developing world leadership and South–South solidarity to strengthen their bargaining position in WTO negotiations. Yet analysis of the growing battle over special and differential treatment (SDT) suggests that such claims are increasingly tenuous. The question of how emerging economic powers should be classified and treated under global trade rules has become an acute source of conflict in the trade regime. The emerging powers insist on access to SDT as an unconditional right of developing countries. But in a debate dominated by the emerging and established powers, the interests of most developing countries have been largely overlooked. Drawing on the cases of agriculture and fisheries – two areas of international trade of particular importance to the developing world – I show that extending SDT to the emerging powers is increasingly problematic for global development. In these areas, many emerging economies are now among the world's largest subsidizers, and the harmful effects of their policies are felt most keenly by other developing countries. Granting SDT to exempt emerging subsidizers from WTO disciplines would therefore undermine efforts to use global trade rules to promote global development, as well as to protect the environment.

USTRUSHNA AT THE GREAT SILK ROAD

The country of Ustrushna, originally mentioned as a political structure in the early medieval written sources, was formed in terms of geographical location between Fergana, Chach, Sughd, mainly in the left bank of the Syrdarya. The convenient natural location of Ustrushna, located on the international trade caravan routes, served as an important factor for the development of domestic and foreign trade here. The article analyzes the issue of ancient and medieval caravan routes, which are the branches of the northern branch of the Great Silk Road through the territory of Ustrushna. In the course of studying the problem, it was noted that trade routes in the territory of “ancient Ustrushna” began to form from the earliest times (IV-II centuries BC) and developed in later periods, and in subsequent periods the towns and villages of Ustrushna specialized in certain areas of international trade. shows.

Особенности применения инструментов централизованного и децентрализованного внешнеторгового принуждения

Measures of foreign trade restriction are a set of restrictive actions taken against the violator of the norms of international law to ensure the fulfillment of obligations imposed on them within the framework of the institute of international legal responsibility. The application of these measures is based on strict observance of the principles of legitimacy, in connection with which it was found that their essence lies in the introduction of temporary retaliatory restrictions in the field of violated obligations, forcing the delinquent to ensure the restoration of the rights and interests of participants in international economic relations affected by his illegal actions. Most of these measures are concentrated in the field of international trade exchange and are implemented through the use of instruments of foreign trade coercion, which are a set of practical means and methods of restricting export-import operations, the impact of which affects all areas of international trade, thereby providing comprehensive pressure on the violator. Further consideration of these instruments allowed us to establish that the methods of their impact can be based on the use of market mechanisms or the establishment of direct prohibitions. In accordance with this, it is customary to classify the instruments of foreign trade coercion into customs tariff and non-tariff restrictions, the arsenal of which is steadily expanding, including through means of a veiled nature.

PRIVATE INTERNATIONAL LAW / CONFLICT OF LAWS AND DIAMOND TRADE

Any researcher of South African diamond laws would find it inevitable that such research discusses the relationship between international diamond transactions and conflict of laws. This is particularly evident in cases where legal disputes have arisen pertaining to such transactions. This article will make reference to the terms “private international law” and “conflict of laws” interchangeably, although “conflict of laws” will be preferred for reasons of taste rather than logic. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the concept of conflict of laws in general and how it significantly impacts the manner in which courts will ultimately decide on the law to be applied in a matter possibly involving inter alia international diamond transactions. This demonstrates the consistent relevance of conflict of laws particularly in light of the global economy. The correct identification and understanding of conflict of laws’ principles can be stretched to accommodate all other areas of international trade. However, for the purposes of understanding how diamond trade is impacted by conflict of laws in South Africa, this paper will be limited to the legal context of diamond-relevant trade and the latest guidelines provided by our courts in relation to the choice of law in matters where conflict of laws has arisen.

Brexit and trade policy: an analysis of the governance of UK trade policy and what it means for health and social justice

BackgroundThere is an extensive body of research demonstrating that trade and globalisation can have wide-ranging implications for health. Robust governance is key to ensuring that health, social justice and sustainability are key considerations within trade policy, and that health risks from trade are effectively mitigated and benefits are maximised. The UK’s departure from the EU provides a rare opportunity to examine a context where trade governance arrangements are being created anew, and to explore the consequences of governance choices and structures for health and social justice. Despite its importance to public health, there has been no systematic analysis of the implications of UK trade policy governance. We therefore conducted an analysis of the governance of the UK’s trade policy from a public health and social justice perspective.ResultsSeveral arrangements required for good governance appear to have been implemented – information provision, public consultation, accountability to Parliament, and strengthening of civil service capacity. However, our detailed analyses of these pillars of governance identified significant weaknesses in each of these areas.ConclusionThe establishment of a new trade policy agenda calls for robust systems of governance. However, our analysis demonstrates that, despite decades of mounting evidence on the health and equity impacts of trade and the importance of strong systems of governance, the UK government has largely ignored this evidence and failed to galvanise the opportunity to include public health and equity considerations and strengthen democratic involvement in trade policy. This underscores the point that the evidence alone will not guarantee that health and justice are prioritised. Rather, we need strong systems of governance everywhere that can help seize the health benefits of international trade and minimise its detrimental impacts. A failure to strengthen governance risks poor policy design and implementation, with unintended and inequitable distribution of harms, and ‘on-paper’ commitments to health, social justice, and democracy unfulfilled in practice. Although the detailed findings relate to the situation in the UK, the issues raised are, we believe, of wider relevance for those with an interest of governing for health in the area of international trade.

Does the European Single Market Exist in the Era of a Coronavirus Pandemic? The Case of Intra and Extra-EU Trade in COVID-19-related Products

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an extraordinary event for the EU Member States and a period wherein EU legislation and the efficiency of EU institutions have been put to the test. The crisis triggered by the decisions made by governments in Europe (which were motivated by their wishes to protect the health and lives of their peoples and to satisfy the rapid demand for drugs, personal protective equipment, and medical devices) disrupted market forces. Although most of these measures were based on both domestic and EU legislation, they seriously hindered the smooth functioning of the EU Single Market, including the free movement of goods. This paper aims to find out whether EU legislation succeeded in coping with the challenges triggered by COVID-19 in the field of international trade and whether measures taken by the European Commission with a view to complying with the rules of the EU Single Market adequately took care of the needs stemming from the COVID-19 outbreak and whether it properly tackled protectionist instruments adopted by the Member States. We have focused on international trade and the free movement of goods within the EU as they both constitute the cornerstone of EU economic integration. We found that although EU legislation was not tailored specifically for the times of a COVID-19 pandemic, in the area of international trade (including intra-EU trade), as well as in the field of placing goods on the market, it provided extraordinary solutions. Apparently, the explanations and guidelines provided by the Commission have limited the scope of individual protectionist and interventionist actions of the Member States.

Post-terrorism image recovery of tourist destination: a qualitative approach using Fuzzy-VIKOR


 Purpose
 
 This study aims to cover issues regarding traveling to a tourist destination which has seen war and terrorism. These problems can be addressed altogether, as they are interrelated. Based on tourists’ opinions, this paper aims to focus on measures or steps that can be taken to ensure changing their perceptions about a certain destination.
 
 
 
 Design/methodology/approach
 
 This study targets tourism experts for their opinions regarding the measures most necessary to change the perceptions of tourists. Their opinions were extracted through a questionnaire based on three criteria with four alternatives. Furthermore, raw data extracted are studied using the Fuzzy-VIKOR technique to rank the alternatives in order of importance. Moreover, the questionnaire also aims to know the perception of participants by asking them what would make them trust a destination with a history of terrorism.
 
 
 
 Findings
 
 The problems captivate the attention of government, guiding them to ensure that they need to focus more on physical security of tourists if they expect tourism industry to thrive. It was found that the steps needed to be taken are in the areas of international trade, cultural exchange programs and social media advertising.
 
 
 
 Originality/value
 
 Research based on improving tourist perception of Pakistan to develop Pakistan as a tourist destination is scarce. The study takes four different alternatives into account for image recovery and based on those alternatives, it provides a unique solution to the government in this regard with the necessary steps they need to take and attempts to help the government ensure tourism expansion in the country.
 

The history of the principle of transparency in international trade law

The present article focuses on the evolution of the principle of transparency and its role in international trade law. The basis of the study is the international legal framework for the transparency requirements, most notably GATT 1947 and GATT 1994. The article traces the roots of transparency in international law and analyses its consecutive development throughout the 20th century and early 21st century. Author applied a number of general scientific and specific legal methods during the study. They allowed to carry out a comprehensive research and analysis the major international treaties in the area of international trade and their evolving provisions on transparency. Author concludes that transparency has become one of the fundamental provisions in the current WTO system. This is indeed confirmed by the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism, which now treats the transparency-related claims as substantive claims. Author shows that it was not the case under the GATT 1947 system, which was inefficient to tackle non-transparent measures that started to occur in early 1970s. As a result, such measures severely impacted bilateral trade between many contracting parties to GATT 1947, mostly between Japan and the United States. Author also shows that the United States were the original architect of the transparency provision in GATT 1947, which was largely based on the American administrative law and was called to create a level playing field for American companies in foreign markets, as the United States provided a high level of transparency domestically. Later on, it was also the United States who advocated for the expansion of the transparency requirements in GATT 1994, and eventually ended up being targeted by numerous transparency-related claims in the framework of the Dispute Settlement Mechanism.

International aid, trade and investment and access and allocation

The access to goods and their allocation (who gets what, when, where and how) is one of the analytical problems of the 2009 Earth System Governance (ESG) Science and Implementation Plan (Biermann, in: Earth System Governance project report, IHDP no. 1, International Human Dimensions Program, Bonn). The 2009 Science Plan distinguishes three dimensions of access: fair outcomes, adequate pathways and effective reallocation. This paper answers the question: how have scholars used concepts related to access and allocation in their research related to international aid, trade and investment. In other words, what have we learnt from the environmental governance literature about who gets what, when and why in the areas of international trade, aid or investment? To date there has not been an attempt to synthesise the findings of this research and this is the gap that this paper addresses. The paper first highlights the key themes in the literature on access and allocation from a justice perspective. It analyses the literature of the ESG and related communities over the last 10 years on international aid, trade, and investment, drawing out the important issues and findings. This study found that most papers applied empirical case study methodologies, highlighted how governance deficits contributed to environmental injustice and were normatively premised on the need to solve the particular and case based problems of global inequality related to resource use and distribution. However, existing studies fell short of identifying the conceptual preconditions and ideal parameters for fair access and allocation of environmental resources in international economic systems. Future research is needed on the extent, nature and causes of the underlying normative and structural elements of the international economic systems that entrench unfair access and allocation of environmental goods and services; on the nature and protagonists of environmental rights and duties and on the elements of governance that may guarantee fair access and allocation in international trade, aid and investment.

Trump’s Foreign Policy and International Trade Law

Donald Trump ha orientado su política exterior hacia dos objetivos económicos principales en materia de comercio exterior. El primero consiste en luchar por un fair trade que reequilibre la relación comercial de Estados Unidos con sus socios comerciales, a través de una lógica que privilegie a los intereses estadounidenses por encima de la búsqueda de intereses comunes. En virtud del segundo objetivo se busca frenar la des-localización de actividades productivas de Estados Unidos para impulsar la creación de nuevos empleos y estimular el crecimiento de la economía interna. Estos dos objetivos de la política exterior de Trump han sacudido profundamente los pilares más fundamentales del derecho del comercio internacional: un conjunto normativo, construido después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial para dar sustento jurídico a las relaciones económicas del nuevo orden internacional liberal. En primer lugar, el neoproteccionismo de la política exterior de Trump constituye una contestación frontal del libre comercio como paradigma dominante del derecho del comercio internacional. En segundo lugar, el confirmado bilateralismo de dicha política es el exacto opuesto del multilateralismo, promovido por las normas e instituciones de la regulación jurídica del comercio internacional. Tanto el neoproteccionismo como el bilateralismo manifiestan la existencia de una crisis más profunda de la cooperación entre Estados en el orden internacional liberal de la posguerra.

Role of Harmonization and Unification in Perspective of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor Physical Infrastructure and Applicable Laws

This research paper centers on logistics investment policies both in legal and social manners for current and future China Pakistan trade with reference to CPEC. With further improvement, many other regional economic players in prospective time may join the CPEC projects, where Afghanistan, Central Asian and SAARC states are prominent to enter for the said purpose. There are different practices around the world to achieve socio economic progress. Hence a unified and harmonized system of applicable rules and regulation is required forthwith in order to get benefits from CPEC. This research paper primarily deals with the history of China Pakistan relations in the context of CPEC and Belt and Road Initiative and their benefits to Pakistan. Furthermore, the role of harmonization and unification among legal rules and physical infrastructure is discussed to find benefits and better solutions. This study applies legal research process where historical method is conducted to observe the history of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which further includes China Pakistan trade relations and their situation regarding logistics investment in CPEC. Furthermore, comparative legal research is applied to find out the differences among Pakistan legal system and international laws to make foreign investment more beneficial. This research concludes that domestic legislation in Pakistan in the areas of logistics and transportation is very limited in scope. Furthermore, such legislation does not cover the broad area of international trade. In current situation it is pertinent for Pakistan to introduce and revise such legislations and codes and not doing so China may again ask Pakistan to enact law as per his own benefits which he did while Pakistan amend Competition and special economic zone laws. Furthermore, CPEC in future will invite many other trade partners for their investment contribution in the region. This necessitates Pakistan to build strong physical infrastructure and negotiate further trade agreements and relevant legislation with other partners in the region and not only rely upon bilateral agreements with China.

Impacto del programa educativo: Comercio Internacional y Aduanas en el desarrollo de las Pymes en los municipios de Comalcalco y Paraíso del Estado de Tabasco

The majority of SMEs in the municipalities of Comalcalco and Paraíso, in the State of Tabasco, are largely unaware of the various activities that take place in the context of the activities that correspond to the specific area of International Trade and the alternative topics that it brings as a consequence , as well as the lack of personnel highly knowledgeable of the changes in negotiation that are propitiated at every moment in the global markets, for that reason it is important to analyze, evaluate and determine the impact that the University has had in the Chontalpa region. Polytechnic of the Gulf of Mexico offers the Degree in International Trade and Customs, and know if it has provided the human resource with professional characteristics for the development of such tasks. The object of study is limited to the State of Tabasco, specifically in the municipalities of Comalcalco and Paraíso. It is very important to mention that in the face of all the changes that arise in foreign trade, companies need to be inserted in the global levels of competitiveness and development, which allow them to have a presence in national and international markets to make strategic investment alliances and cooperation.

Post-terrorism image recovery of tourist destination: a qualitative approach using Fuzzy-VIKOR

Purpose This study aims to cover issues regarding traveling to a tourist destination which has seen war and terrorism. These problems can be addressed altogether, as they are interrelated. Based on tourists’ opinions, this paper aims to focus on measures or steps that can be taken to ensure changing their perceptions about a certain destination. Design/methodology/approach This study targets tourism experts for their opinions regarding the measures most necessary to change the perceptions of tourists. Their opinions were extracted through a questionnaire based on three criteria with four alternatives. Furthermore, raw data extracted are studied using the Fuzzy-VIKOR technique to rank the alternatives in order of importance. Moreover, the questionnaire also aims to know the perception of participants by asking them what would make them trust a destination with a history of terrorism. Findings The problems captivate the attention of government, guiding them to ensure that they need to focus more on physical security of tourists if they expect tourism industry to thrive. It was found that the steps needed to be taken are in the areas of international trade, cultural exchange programs and social media advertising. Originality/value Research based on improving tourist perception of Pakistan to develop Pakistan as a tourist destination is scarce. The study takes four different alternatives into account for image recovery and based on those alternatives, it provides a unique solution to the government in this regard with the necessary steps they need to take and attempts to help the government ensure tourism expansion in the country.

International challenges and opportunities: Putting the EU’s positions into words

Europe is facing numerous challenges, many of which are unprecedented either in their scale or in their nature. These challenges include uncertainties about the future of the liberal international order and the rise of populist movements in the West. And there are also tensions and reform pressures in the areas of international trade, climate change and extreme weather events; pressures linked to migration from the Middle East and North Africa; hybrid threats and cyberattacks; and problems related to the expected departure of the UK from the EU by the end of March 2019. During its forthcoming Council Presidency in autumn 2019, Finland will have the opportunity to propose new solutions to these and other challenges. This article argues that it is important for Europe’s leaders to clearly articulate and put into words what the EU’s positions and objectives are on the world stage. Without clear positions and objectives, the EU will not be able to represent its member states and citizens as effectively as it should.

How post‐Brexit Britain can become a global trade hub

Linda Yueh argues that opening up services sectors around the world could help the UK economy exploit one of the fastest growing areas of international trade

THE ISSUE OF CORRUPTION IN THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE-QUESTIONING THE ARBITRATORS’ JURISDICTION?

Corruption and a private dispute resolution - two disciplines that have nothing in common? Contrarily. The area of international trade is, as a consequence of liberalization and globalization, free of many economical, legal and physical barriers between countries today. The international cooperation between subjects of different states and the exchange of goods and services is going hand in hand with a risky growth of international criminal activities. The jurisdiction of national judges has been limited in this field since the existence of an alternative dispute resolution that is more suitable to the global and commercial needs and claims. The aim of this paper is to analyze whether it is appropriate, in the context of the international arbitration proceedings, to raise an issue of corruption that may have affected or otherwise distorted the performance of a contract. The conclusion of this paper reveals that such issues should be permitted to be raised by the arbitrators in arbitral proceedings since the principal decision-making powers of the arbitrators in the area of international trade is undeniable.