Areas Of Environmental Suitability Research Articles

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of European syngnathids over the next century

At the latitudinal interval that encompasses Europe, due to the gradual seawater warming imposed by climate change, there is now continuing evidence for a widespread pattern of poleward range shifts, often translated by expansions in the northern leading edges of distribution and contraction episodes at the southern boundaries. As the distribution of biodiversity is far from static, it seems imperative that we can predict changes in species’ geographic ranges to potentially circumvent severe biodiversity losses in the near future. Here, we focus on syngnathids, flagship species and umbrella taxa for coastal marine ecosystems, and attempt to identify areas of environmental suitability in Europe over the next century, according to distinct greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Our results seamlessly match the general and region-specific impacts of climate change projections for European seas. Especially within the Atlantic Coast, species are expected to continue poleward range shifts, with the hotspot of syngnathid diversity remaining around the Celtic-Biscay Shelf, albeit with slightly distinct species composition from that of present day. The most dramatic changes are expected within semi-enclosed areas such as the Baltic, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, where present-day endemic species diversity is likely to plunge, especially under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. When looking at the potential protective role of ‘no-take’ marine protected areas (MPAs) on European syngnathids, a clear latitudinal asymmetry emerged. From the Atlantic diversity hotspot downwards, and especially in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, the current ‘no-take’ MPA layout, if it remains static, will not be especially effective in either safeguarding syngnathid diversity or delaying the expected gradual species disappearance. Europe needs to be prepared to implement, at a continental scale, coordinated conservation measures aimed at preventing (or delaying, at the very least) the loss of its marine endemic species. As umbrella species, conservation efforts aimed at syngnathids will surely have a positive impact on coastal ecosystems.

Threats from climate change for lizard species of a Neotropical mountain range.

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for species of high altitudes. However, biodiversity conservation policies that consider mitigation strategies for long-term climate impacts are still scarce. To analyze the effects of climate change on lizards in tropical mountainous areas, we selected two species from Serra do Espinhaço (Brazil) with different thermoregulation strategies and distributions (Tropidurus montanus and Rhachisaurus brachylepis). Serra do Espinhaço mountain range is recognized as an important center of endemism and can act as a refuge for species that manage to survive climate change. We produce models of environmental suitability from bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic variables, and create projections for the present and for the year 2070 under an optimistic (RCP 4.5) and a pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climatic scenario. The results indicate that both future climate scenarios foresee a reduction of areas of environmental suitability for the studied species, but especially for the restricted distribution one (R. brachylepis). Although our results indicate that the studied species are recorded in areas of integral protection that possess climatic stability, the future will see a reduction of areas with environmental suitability, especially under the pessimistic scenario.

The future scenario of an iconic tree from the Brazilian Cerrado: perspectives on Eremanthus Less. (Asteraceae) conservation

Characterized as one of the largest biodiversity hot spots, the Cerrado ecoregion is home to a wide variety of endemic species. Several threats such as agricultural expansion and habitat fragmentation put the species of the Cerrado ecosystems and biodiversity at risk. Thus, this study analysed the genus Eremanthus, which has abundant species in the Cerrado and suffers from intense anthropogenic pressure due to overexploitation, mainly as a material utilized for the construction of fences and the extraction of essential oils. Environmental suitability was estimated for the genus for the present and future (2070), in order to characterize the importance of the climate in the species distribution and to analyse the conservation status of the genus. The Species Distribution Modelling and Gap Analysis showed that the areas of environmental suitability are limited and are found in a matrix composed of a high presence of anthropic activity, which can intensify the loss of species habitat and increase the vulnerability of the group. The studied species were classified as Endangered and Vulnerable according to IUCN criteria, presenting very reduced areas of environmental suitability projected in the future and a low percentage of species in protected areas, that may influence possible species extinctions in the genus. Thus, this study provides insights to assist in conservation planning and reinforces the importance of protecting the biodiversity of the Cerrado.

El cambio climático afectará la distribución del búho manchado mexicano (Strix occidentalis lucidaNelson 1903)

Introduction: The Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida Nelson 1903) is a subspecies threatened by habitat destruction and sensitive to climate change. It is distributed in the old forests of the United States and Mexico. Objective: To determine the potential historical (1970-2000) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060 y 2061-2080) distribution of the Mexican spotted owl under two climate change scenarios (SSP 245 and SSP 585). Materials and methods: Potential distribution was modeled using the R software with the MaxEnt algorithm, 155 geographically uncorrelated occurrence records, and five bioclimatic layers. Areas of environmental suitability were predicted for eight environmental management units in the United States and Mexico. Results and discussion: Three temperature variables contributed 93.1 % to the model prediction: mean diurnal range (44.8 %), maximum temperature of the warmest month (28.8 %) and average of the coldest quarter (19.5 %). Future scenarios showed gradual and continuous losses of suitable bioclimatic space for the bird in seven management units, especially in the high emissions scenario (SSP 585) in the Sierra Madre Oriental de México (-56.1 to -96.4 %). The Southern Rocky Mountains environmental management unit in the United States was the only one that gained suitable bioclimatic space (51.3 to 167.2 %) in all periods. Conclusion: Although changes are not significant, the loss of areas of bioclimatic suitability begins in 2030 and increases in 2041 and, therefore, climate change represents a current threat to this bird of prey.

Leguminosae endemic to the Chaco facing quaternary climate fluctuations

We investigated the influence of Quaternary climate fluctuations on the current distribution of three species of Leguminosae (Fabaceae) occurring in the Chaco. Potential distribution models of Bauhinia hagenbeckii, Muellera nudiflora and Neltuma rubriflora with a supposed endemism area were generated. The Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, Holocene Middle and current scenarios were used. The species showed a potential distribution according to the South American biogeographic history regarding the glacier regression and the formation of the Dry Diagonal. The models for each Quaternary event exhibited a tolerable AUC ≥ 0.9 for the validations. The LGM was the event that favoured the current species establishment areas in the Dry Diagonal. Quaternary climatic events were related to the current Leguminosae distribution. Bauhinia hagenbeckii and Neltuma rubriflora present similar areas of environmental suitability. Muellera nudiflora models with areas of environmental suitability were larger for the LIG and Holocene than for areas from other periods. All scenario models (LGM, HM and current scenario) highlighted the potential distribution of the three species concomitant with the glacier regression events and were consistent with the history of formation of South American dry areas.

Climate change may affect the future of extractivism in the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon forest is vulnerable to climate change and anthropic actions, such as fire and deforestation, which together represent a troubling scenario. Many traditional populations that inhabit the region depend on non-timber forest resources for food or economic sustenance. We demonstrated that climate change predicted for 2050 may affect the geographic distribution of 18 species of palms and trees that are extracted and used as resources by traditional populations living in extractive reserves (RESEX). According to our ecological niche models, 11 species may have a reduction in their areas of environmental suitability (AES), and nine of them may disappear from some RESEXs. In addition, 21 RESEXs may lose one or more species, while four may lose all their extractive species. We warn that the lack of socio-environmental diagnoses of these reserves makes it difficult to forecast social impacts and to develop mitigation measures. Finally, we identify priority places for the implementation of conservation policies for extractive species.

Spatial niche modelling of five endemic cacti from the Brazilian Caatinga: Past, present and future

AbstractClimate change, together with human activities, impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and poses a major threat to biodiversity, especially in environments with a high rate of endemism and where species are profoundly adapted to specific environmental conditions, as is the case of the seasonally dry tropical forests, noticeably the Caatinga, an exclusively Brazilian biome. The objective of this study was to build spatial niche models of five species of Cactaceae (Arrojadoa penicillata, Brasilicereus phaeacanthus, Pereskia aureiflora, Stephanocereus leucostele and Tacinga inamoena) endemic to the Caatinga and with different traits, to evaluate the impact of climate change on their geographical distribution. The species records and environmental variable values were overlaid on a grid of 6818 cells with 0.5° spatial resolution. Niche models were obtained for five types of general circulation models between ocean and atmosphere and 12 different ecological models. The ensemble ecological niche model was calculated at present and projected to past (last glacial maximum – LGM, 21 000; and mid‐Holocene – Hol, 6000 years ago) and future climate conditions (average of 2080), under the effect of climate change, in the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5. The distribution pattern of the studied species indicates an area with less environmental suitability in the LGM, followed by an expansion that began in the Hol and continued until the present period. In the future (2080), the models predicted a retraction of areas of environmental suitability, in which P. aureiflora and B. phaeacanthus, given their more restricted, marginal habitat and woody habit, present a great risk of extinction, whilst S. leucostele, A. penicillata and T. inamoena present a smaller reduction in suitable area, partly reflecting their spreading, less woody habit. Regional conservation actions for Cactaceae species and their habitat need to take these findings into account if we are to ensure the survival of these species.

EVALUATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION MODELS OF "BURITI" AND "PARATUDO", ARBOREAL SPECIES OF THE PANTANAL, WITH DATA OF THE CLIMATE OF THE QUATERNARY AND THE PRESENT

During the Quaternary, climatic variations caused changes in the size of vegetation formations in the Pantanal, promoting the expansion of seasonal forests at the beginning of the Holocene. Climatic conditions change the patterns of vegetation diversity on continental scales. Mauritia flexuosa L. f., The "Buriti", is a palm tree that explores humid environments with acid soils. While, Tabebuia aurea (Silva Manso) Benth. &Hook.f. ex S.Moore is a species of monodominant occurrence in the Pantanal in extensive areas locally denominated as "paratudal". Data sets of past eras have contributed to the study of plant species biogeography. The models of the potential distribution of these species were generated from the algorithm of the Maxent program with climatic data set of the Last Glacial Maximum (ca 22,000 years AP), Holocene Medium (ca. 6,000 years AP) and present time in two different versions. Potential distribution models with climatic packets from the present in the newer version presented areas of environmental suitability greater than in the older version. In the Holocene Middle and Late Glacial Maximum periods, the areas of environmental suitability were higher than in the newer present version. Many studies on climatic variations on the South American continent confirm the suggestions of the proposed models. The areas of environmental suitability of the species treated in the present are smaller in comparison with Last Glacial Maximum and Average Holocene. The species presented a potential distribution according to the biogeographic history of South America.

Understanding biogeographical patterns in the western Balkan Peninsula using environmental niche modelling and geostatistics in polymorphic Edraianthus tenuifolius.

The Balkan Peninsula represents one of the three southern European glacial refugia where biodiversity persisted throughout the climatically unstable Quaternary. This study considered the ‘refugia within refugia’ model, which assumes the environmental heterogeneity over time and space in larger refugia. To better understand patterns shaped during the Quaternary climatic oscillations, the present and last glacial maximum (LGM) environmental conditions and current morphological variability of Edraianthus tenuifolius, an endemic plant of the western Balkans with a well-known therphical structure, were considered. Potential present and LGM distributions were studied through environmental niche modelling using 161 data of occurrences and six bioclimatic variables, hindcasting the model to LGM conditions using three different global circulation models. To test the geographical variability of the reproductive region, 41 characters of 667 inflorescences from 35 populations within the distribution range were measured. Geographical patterns, using geostatistics together with univariate and multivariate statistical approaches, were analysed. The environmental niche model suggested the current potential distribution in correspondence to its known occurrences. The hindcast to LGM conditions suggested two separate areas of environmental suitability, one in the present-day northern Adriatic coast of Croatia (Istrian Peninsula, Kvarner) and another on the present-day south-eastern Adriatic coast (southern Dalmatia, Montenegro and northern Albania). Morphological variability showed a similar pattern, where southern populations separated from northern populations according to a major split in the central part of its distribution range (central Dalmatia). On other levels, stronger barriers were predicted to separate northern populations from the eastern Istrian Peninsula and the Kvarner area. The results suggested congruent biogeographical patterns to the already known phylogeographical structure. Both environmental niche modelling and the geographical variability of morphological characters suggested spatial partitioning, indicating the potential presence of two separate refugia during the LGM.

Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control.

Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa. Despite the effectiveness of livestock vaccines in controlling anthrax, underreporting, logistics, and limited resources makes implementing vaccination campaigns difficult. To better understand the geographic limits of anthrax, elucidate environmental factors related to its occurrence, and identify human and livestock populations at risk, we developed predictive models of the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana. We obtained data on the location and date of livestock anthrax from veterinary and outbreak response records in Ghana during 2005–2016, as well as livestock vaccination registers and population estimates of characteristically high-risk groups. To predict the environmental suitability of anthrax, we used an ensemble of random forest (RF) models built using a combination of climatic and environmental factors. From 2005 through the first six months of 2016, there were 67 anthrax outbreaks (851 cases) in livestock; outbreaks showed a seasonal peak during February through April and primarily involved cattle. There was a median of 19,709 vaccine doses [range: 0–175 thousand] administered annually. Results from the RF model suggest a marked ecological divide separating the broad areas of environmental suitability in northern Ghana from the southern part of the country. Increasing alkaline soil pH was associated with a higher probability of anthrax occurrence. We estimated 2.2 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5) million livestock and 805 (95% CI: 519, 890) thousand low income rural livestock keepers were located in anthrax risk areas. Based on our estimates, the current anthrax vaccination efforts in Ghana cover a fraction of the livestock potentially at risk, thus control efforts should be focused on improving vaccine coverage among high risk groups.

Environmental suitability for Agrilus auroguttatus (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in Mexico using MaxEnt and database records of four Quercus (Fagaceae) species

Abstract The goldspotted oak borer Agrilus auroguttatus Schaeffer is an invasive pest of three Quercus species in southern California, U.S.A. As a native and potentially indigenous exotic species, its distribution and potential damage is largely unknown in Mexico. We used the maximum entropy algorithm to determine the bioclimatic variables that may explain the distribution of A. auroguttatus, as well as its interaction with the distribution of known hosts in Mexico. Our model calculated high suitability for A. auroguttatus in the biogeographical provinces of California, the northern and southern areas of Sierra Madre Occidental and the northwestern area of the Mexican Plateau; moderate suitability was projected in the Baja California, Sonora and Sierra Madre Occidental provinces. Potential distribution of A. auroguttatus was overlapping with native ranges of Quercus agrifolia, Quercus emoryi Torrey and Quercus hypoleucoides A. Camus. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (23.6%), isothermality (23.5%), precipitation seasonality (17.3%) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (11.2%) contributed most to explaining its distribution in Mexico. The geographical interaction (i.e. the likelihood that the habitat would be suitable for coexistence) of A. auroguttatus with its hosts in Mexico was projected in the California province (46 382.60 km2, probably as an exotic species) and the northwestern areas of Mexican Plateau and Sierra Madre Occidental provinces (74 013.45 km2, probably as native). Determining the areas of environmental suitability for A. auroguttatus and its host distribution can focus ground surveys, contribute to management efforts and assist in the development of risk assessments for Mexico.

Predicting the potential distribution of Lantana camara L. under RCP scenarios using ISI-MIP models

Projections of anthropogenically-induced global climate change and its impacts on potential distributions of invasive species are crucial for implementing effective conservation and management strategies. Lantana camara L., a popular ornamental plant native to tropical America, has become naturalized in some 50 countries and is considered one of the world’s worst weeds. To increase our understanding of its potential extent of spread and examine the responses of global geographic distribution, predictive models incorporating global distribution data of L. camara were generated. These models were used to identify areas of environmental suitability and project the effects of future climate change based on an ensemble of the four global climate models (GCMs) within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparis on Project (ISI-MIP). Each model was run under the four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) using the Maximum entropy (Maxent) approach. Future model predictions through 2050 indicated an overall expansion of L. camara, despite future suitability varying considerably among continents. Under the four RCP scenarios, the range of L. camara expanded further inland in many regions (e.g. Africa, Australia), especially under the RCP85 emission scenario. The global distribution of L. camara, though restricted within geographical regions of similar latitude as at present (35°N ~ 35°S), was projected to expand equator-ward in response to future climate conditions. Considerable discrepancy in predicted environmental suitability for L. camara among GCMs highlights the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on its potential distribution and the need to improve the reliability of predictions in novel climates.