Volume-area Scaling Research Articles

From global glacier modeling to catchment hydrology: bridging the gap with the WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme

Coupled glacio-hydrological models have recently become a valuable method for predicting the hydrological response of catchments in mountainous regions under a changing climate. While hydrological models focus mostly on processes of the non-glacierized part of the catchment with a relatively simple glacier representation, the latest generation of standalone (global) glacier models tend to describe glacier processes more accurately by using new global datasets and explicitly modeling ice-flow dynamics. Yet, to the authors' knowledge, existing catchment-scale coupled glacio-hydrological models either do not include these most recent advances in glacier modeling or are simply not available to other users. By making use of the capabilities of the free, distributed, physically-based Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) and the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), a coupling scheme is developed to bridge the gap between global glacier representation and local catchment hydrology. The WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme is used to further assess the impacts under future climates on the glaciological and hydrological processes in the Gepatschalm catchment (Austria), by considering a combination of three climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Additionally, the results are compared to the original WaSiM model with the integrated Volume-Area (VA) scaling approach for modeling glaciers. Although both models (WaSiM with VA scaling and WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme) perform very similar during the historical simulations (1971–2010), large discrepancies arise when looking into the future (2011–2100). In terms of runoff, the VA scaling model suggests a reduction of the mean monthly peak between 10–19%, whereas a reduction of 26–41% is computed by the coupling scheme. Similarly, results suggest that glaciers will continuously retreat until 2100. By the end of the century, between 20–43% of the 2010 glacier area will remain according to the VA scaling model, but only 1–23% is expected to remain with the coupling scheme. The results from the WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme raises awareness of including more sophisticated glacier evolution models when performing hydrological simulations at the catchment scale in the future. As the WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme is released as open-source software, it is accessible to any interested modeler with limited or even no glacier knowledge.

Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099

Abstract Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios.

Allometric scaling of retrogressive thaw slumps

Abstract. In the warming Arctic, retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) has emerged as the primary thermokarst modifier of ice-rich permafrost slopes, raising urgency to investigate the distribution and intensification of disturbances and the cascade of effects. Tracking RTS is challenging due to the constraints of remote sensing products and a narrow understanding of complex, thaw-driven landforms; however, high-resolution elevation models provide new insights into geomorphic change. Structural traits, such as RTS depth of thaw or volume, can be obtained through allometric scaling. To address fundamental knowledge gaps related to area–volume scaling of RTS, a suitable surface interpolation technique was first needed to model pre-disturbance topography upon which volume estimates could be based. Among eight methods with 32 parameterizations, natural neighbour surface interpolation achieved the best precision in reconstructing pre-disturbed slope topography (90th percentile root mean square difference ±1.0 m). An inverse association between RTS volume and relative volumetric error was observed, with uncertainties < 10 % for large slumps and < 20 % for small to medium slumps. Second, a multisource slump inventory (MSI) for two study areas in the Beaufort Delta (Canada) region was developed to characterize the diverse range of disturbance morphologies and activity levels, which provided consistent characterization of thaw-slump-affected slopes between regions and through time. The MSI delineation of high-resolution hillshade digital elevation models (DEMs) for three time periods (airborne stereo-imagery, lidar, ArcticDEM) revealed temporal and spatial trends in these chronic mass-wasting features. For example, in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, a +38 % increase in active RTS counts and +69 % increase in total active surface area were observed between 2004 and 2016. However, the total disturbance area of RTS-affected terrain did not change considerably (+3.5 %) because the vast majority of active thaw slumping processes occurred in association with past disturbances. Interpretation of thaw-driven change is thus dependent on how active RTS is defined to support disturbance inventories. Our results highlight that active RTS is tightly linked to past disturbances, underscoring the importance of inventorying inactive scar areas. Third, the pre-disturbance topographies, MSI digitizations, and DEMs were integrated to explore allometric scaling relationships between RTS area and eroded volume. The power-law model indicated non-linearity in the rates of RTS expansion and intensification across scales (adj-R2 of 0.85, n= 1522) but also revealed that elongated, shoreline RTS reflects outliers poorly represented by the modelling. These results indicate that variation in the allometric scaling of RTS populations is based on morphometry, terrain position, and complexity of the disturbance area, as well as the method and ontology by which slumps are inventoried. This study highlights the importance of linking field-based knowledge to feature identification and the utility of high-resolution DEMs in quantifying rates of RTS erosion beyond tracking changes in the planimetric area.

Glacier Volume Estimation Using Laminar-Flow and Volume–Area Scaling Techniques in the Chenab Basin

Glacier Volume Estimation Using Laminar-Flow and Volume–Area Scaling Techniques in the Chenab Basin

Keynote lecture. Forecasting the inundation of postfire debris flows

In the semi-arid regions of the western United States, postfire debris flows are typically runoff generated. The U.S. Geological Survey has been studying the mechanisms of postfire debris-flow initiation for multiple decades to generate operational models for forecasting the timing, location, and magnitude of postfire debris flows. Here we discuss challenges and progress for extending operational capabilities to include modeling postfire debris-flow inundation extent. Analysis of volume and impacted area scaling relationships indicated that postfire debris flows do not conform to assumptions of geometric self-similarity. We documented sensitivity of impacted areas to rainfall intensity using a candidate methodology for generating inundation hazard assessments. Our results emphasize the importance of direct measurements of debris-flow volume, inundated area, and high temporal resolution rainfall intensity.

Improving the accuracy of glacial lake volume estimation: A case study in the Poiqu basin, central Himalayas

• We present a new volume-scaling law specific to moraine-dammed lakes. • The new equation shows a more robust performance than other published formulas. • The total lake volume in the Poiqu basin has increased by 148% from 1974 to 2020. Lake volume is a critical parameter in the prediction of potential flood volume and peak discharge in the risk assessment of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). As existing volume–area scaling relationships often blur the complexity of lake geometry, we presented a new volume-scaling law specific to moraine-dammed lakes, derived from a large lake bathymetry dataset. The relationship was based on the premise that lake geometry parameters (i.e., area, volume, width/length ratio) scale predictably. We then critically evaluated the performance of the new approach and compared it with 19 existing empirical relationships by examining a database of glacial lake bathymetry obtained without repeated measurements. Overall, the new volume-scaling relationship showed a more robust performance than other published formulas. In addition, an intriguing result was that regional differences were not always controlled by the predictability of lake volumes, that is, there were no regional restrictions on the use of the new method, at least not in the Himalayas. Finally, using the new approach and high-resolution Landsat imagery, our results of sequential mapping of all lakes in the Poiqu basin indicated that the total lake volume has increased by 148% from 1974 to 2020. Compared with other formulas, the lake volume estimation approach proposed in this paper provides an approximate mean value, which provides a key input parameter for flood simulation and a new alternative for estimating lake volume.

Towards accurate quantification of ice content in permafrost of the Central Andes – Part 2: An upscaling strategy of geophysical measurements to the catchment scale at two study sites

Abstract. With ongoing climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand how much water is stored as ground ice in areas with extensive permafrost occurrence, as well as how the regional water balance may alter in response to the potential generation of meltwater from permafrost degradation. However, field-based data on permafrost in remote and mountainous areas such as the South American Andes are scarce. Most current ground ice estimates are based on broadly generalized assumptions such as volume–area scaling and mean ground ice content estimates of rock glaciers. In addition, ground ice contents in permafrost areas outside of rock glaciers are usually not considered, resulting in a significant uncertainty regarding the volume of ground ice in the Andes and its hydrological role. In Part 1 of this contribution, Hilbich et al. (2022a) present an extensive geophysical data set based on electrical resistivity tomography and refraction seismic tomography surveys to detect and quantify ground ice of different landforms and surface types in several study regions in the semi-arid Andes of Chile and Argentina with the aim to contribute to the reduction of this data scarcity. In Part 2 we focus on the development of a strategy for the upscaling of geophysics-based ground ice quantification to an entire catchment to estimate the total ground ice volume (and its approximate water equivalent) in the study areas. In addition to the geophysical data, the upscaling approach is based on a permafrost distribution model and classifications of surface and landform types. In this paper, we introduce our upscaling strategy, and we demonstrate that the estimation of large-scale ground ice volumes can be improved by including (i) non-rock-glacier permafrost occurrences and (ii) field evidence through a large number of geophysical surveys and ground truthing information. The results of our study indicate that (i) conventional ground ice estimates for rock-glacier-dominated catchments without in situ data may significantly overestimate ground ice contents and (ii) substantial volumes of ground ice may also be present in catchments where rock glaciers are lacking.

Scaling relations reveal global and regional differences in morphometry of reservoirs and natural lakes

Water bodies provide essential ecosystem services linked to morphometric features that might differ between natural lakes and reservoirs. We use the HydroLAKES global dataset to quantitatively compare large (area > 1 km2) reservoirs and natural lakes in terms of scaling exponents between morphometric measures (volume, area, shore length). These exponents are further compared to those expected from geometrical assumptions and constraints. Lakes cover a larger range of volumes for the same range of surface areas than reservoirs, and have a larger volume-area scaling exponent. The volume-area scaling exponent for reservoirs (but not natural lakes) and the area-shore length exponent for all water bodies follow the predictions for self-affine surfaces. Land cover and terrain influence the scaling relations more for lakes than for reservoirs. These morphometric differences may be used to model the impact of reservoirs and lakes on hydrological processes and associated ecosystem services at regional to global scales.

Estimation of glacier stored water in the Bhaga basin using laminar flow and volume-area scaling methods

Reliable estimates of glacier stored water are necessary for water resources management of Himalayan rivers. Extreme climate and rugged Himalayan terrain make it challenging to apply field methods. Therefore, the investigation used a technique based on glacier surface velocity, slope, and laminar flow law. We have estimated the stored water of 319 glaciers covering 320 ± 16 km2 area in the Bhaga basin. Glacier surface velocity and thickness of 64 glaciers are estimated using an open-source COSI-Corr and automated Himalayan Glacier Thickness Mapper (HIGTHIM) tool. The average surface velocity is calculated as 8 ± 0.06 myr−1, and the mean glacier ice thickness ranges from 28 ± 3.8 to 82 ± 11.2 m. We developed a new Volume-Area scaling relationship based on the estimates from the HIGTHIM tool in this work. The volume of the remaining 255 glaciers of the basin is estimated using this scaling relation. The total glacier stored water of Bhaga glaciers is estimated as 15 ± 2.8 Gt. The technique provides better estimates of glacier stored water, providing primary input for further hydrological investigations in the Bhaga basin.

Prediction of changes in water balance of Nam Co Lake under projected climate change scenarios

ABSTRACT This study predicts future variations in simulated water balance components of Nam Co Lake under projected climate change scenarios using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model in conjunction with the degree-day melt (DDM) model coupled with the glacier volume-area scaling law. We deduced that the water balance of Nam Co Lake will increase under all selected representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, but it will become negative from 2073 onward (under RCP8.5). Compared to 1981–2010, from 2011 to 2100, the projected Nam Co Lake levels show an increase at a rate of 0.63, 0.70, and 0.41 m/a under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with an area expansion of 778, 855, and 537 km2 and a corresponding water volume increase of 155, 17, and 94 km3, respectively; from 2011 to 2100, the lake area will expand by 38.6%, 42.4%, and 26.6% under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively.

Role of landslides on the volume balance of the Nepal 2015 earthquake sequence

The 7.8 Mw earthquake that struck Nepal on April 25th, 2015 triggered over 21,000 landslides over an area of more than 25,000 km2. These landslides contributed to mass wasting, partially compensating the tectonic uplift by the earthquake. In this paper we quantify the volume balance resulting from the 2015 earthquake uplift (or subsidence) and landslide erosion. Starting from a new complete earthquake-induced landslide inventory, we calculated landslide volume by adopting different strategies for low-mobility and high-mobility landslides, considering also the potential supply of sediments to the drainage network. The results show that the contribution of earthquake-induced landslides to erosion is about one order of magnitude smaller than the vertical coseismic displacement. We found landslide volume values, due to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, ranging between 251 (− 15/ + 16) Mm3 up to 1503 (− 183/ + 210) Mm3 based on the adopted method, and a volume due to coseismic vertical displacement of 2134 (± 1269) Mm3 for the whole area. The volume balance of the 2015 Nepal earthquake is strongly dominated by tectonic displacement. We show that these estimates depend on several uncertainties. We identified and quantified uncertainties related to: (1) the choice of empirical volume-area scaling relationships and their parameters; (2) the completeness and quality of landslide inventory through comparison with available inventories; (3) the approach adopted for the assessment of elongated landslide volume; (4) the InSAR displacement data.

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

The volume of glaciers in Iceland (∼3,400 km3in 2019) corresponds to about 9 mm of potential global sea level rise. In this study, observations from 98.7% of glacier covered areas in Iceland (in 2019) are used to construct a record of mass change of Icelandic glaciers since the end of the 19th century i.e. the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in Iceland. Glaciological (in situ) mass-balance measurements have been conducted on Vatnajökull, Langjökull, and Hofsjökull since the glaciological years 1991/92, 1996/97, and 1987/88, respectively. Geodetic mass balance for multiple glaciers and many periods has been estimated from reconstructed surface maps, published maps, aerial photographs, declassified spy satellite images, modern satellite stereo imagery, and airborne lidar. To estimate the maximum glacier volume at the end of the LIA, a volume–area scaling method is used based on the observed area and volume from the three largest ice caps (over 90% of total ice mass) at 5–7 different times each, in total 19 points. The combined record shows a total mass change of −540 ± 130 Gt (−4.2 ± 1.0 Gt a−1on average) during the study period (1890/91 to 2018/19). This mass loss corresponds to 1.50 ± 0.36 mm sea level equivalent or 16 ± 4% of mass stored in Icelandic glaciers around 1890. Almost half of the total mass change occurred in 1994/95 to 2018/19, or −240 ± 20 Gt (−9.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1on average), with most rapid loss in 1994/95 to 2009/10 (mass change rate −11.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1). During the relatively warm period 1930/31–1949/50, mass loss rates were probably close to those observed since 1994, and in the colder period 1980/81–1993/94, the glaciers gained mass at a rate of 1.5 ± 1.0 Gt a−1. For other periods of this study, the glaciers were either close to equilibrium or experienced mild loss rates. For the periods of AR6 IPCC, the mass change rates are −3.1 ± 1.1 Gt a−1for 1900/01–1989/90, −4.3 ± 1.0 Gt a−1for 1970/71–2017/18, −8.3 ± 0.8 Gt a−1for 1992/93–2017/18, and −7.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1for 2005/06–2017/18.

Possible biases in scaling-based estimates of glacier change: a case study in the Himalaya

Abstract. Approximate glacier models are routinely used to compute the future evolution of mountain glaciers under any given climate-change scenario. A majority of these models are based on statistical scaling relations between glacier volume, area, and/or length. In this paper, long-term predictions from scaling-based models are compared with those from a two-dimensional shallow-ice approximation (SIA) model. We derive expressions for climate sensitivity and response time of glaciers assuming a time-independent volume–area scaling. These expressions are validated using a scaling-model simulation of the response of 703 synthetic glaciers from the central Himalaya to a step change in climate. The same experiment repeated with the SIA model yields about 2 times larger climate sensitivity and response time than those predicted by the scaling model. In addition, the SIA model obtains area response time that is about 1.5 times larger than the corresponding volume response time, whereas scaling models implicitly assume the two response times to be equal to each other. These results indicate the possibility of a low bias in the scaling model estimates of the long-term loss of glacier area and volume. The SIA model outputs are used to obtain parameterisations, climate sensitivity, and response time of glaciers as functions of ablation rate near the terminus, mass-balance gradient, and mean thickness. Using a linear-response model based on these parameterisations, we find that the linear-response model outperforms the scaling model in reproducing the glacier response simulated by the SIA model. This linear-response model may be useful for predicting the evolution of mountain glaciers on a global scale.

HyLands 1.0: a hybrid landscape evolution model to simulate the impact of landslides and landslide-derived sediment on landscape evolution

Abstract. Landslides are the main source of sediment in most mountain ranges. Rivers then act as conveyor belts, evacuating landslide-derived sediment. Sediment dynamics are known to influence landscape evolution through interactions among landslide sediment delivery, fluvial transport and river incision into bedrock. Sediment delivery and its interaction with river incision therefore control the pace of landscape evolution and mediate relationships among tectonics, climate and erosion. Numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) are well suited to study the interactions among these surface processes. They enable evaluation of a range of hypotheses at varying temporal and spatial scales. While many models have been used to study the dynamic interplay between tectonics, erosion and climate, the role of interactions between landslide-derived sediment and river incision has received much less attention. Here, we present HyLands, a hybrid landscape evolution model integrated within the TopoToolbox Landscape Evolution Model (TTLEM) framework. The hybrid nature of the model lies in its capacity to simulate both erosion and deposition at any place in the landscape due to fluvial bedrock incision, sediment transport, and rapid, stochastic mass wasting through landsliding. Fluvial sediment transport and bedrock incision are calculated using the recently developed Stream Power with Alluvium Conservation and Entrainment (SPACE) model. Therefore, rivers can dynamically transition from detachment-limited to transport-limited and from bedrock to bedrock–alluvial to fully alluviated states. Erosion and sediment production by landsliding are calculated using a Mohr–Coulomb stability analysis, while landslide-derived sediment is routed and deposited using a multiple-flow-direction, nonlinear deposition method. We describe and evaluate the HyLands 1.0 model using analytical solutions and observations. We first illustrate the functionality of HyLands to capture river dynamics ranging from detachment-limited to transport-limited conditions. Second, we apply the model to a portion of the Namche Barwa massif in eastern Tibet and compare simulated and observed landslide magnitude–frequency and area–volume scaling relationships. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of explicitly simulating landsliding and sediment dynamics over longer timescales for landscape evolution in general and river dynamics in particular. With HyLands we provide a new tool to understand both the long- and short-term coupling between stochastic hillslope processes, river incision and source-to-sink sediment dynamics.

Volume-area scaling for debris-covered glaciers

AbstractA volume-area scaling relation is commonly used to estimate glacier volume or its future changes on a global scale. The presence of an insulating supraglacial debris cover alters the mass-balance profile of a glacier, potentially modifying the scaling relation. Here, the nature of scaling relations for extensively debris-covered glaciers is investigated. Theoretical arguments suggest that the volume-area scaling exponent for these glaciers is ~7% smaller than that for clean glaciers. This is consistent with the results from flowline-model simulations of idealised glaciers, and the available data from the Himalaya. The best-fit scale factor for debris-covered Himalayan glaciers is ~60% larger compared to that for the clean ones, implying a significantly larger stored ice volume in a debris-covered glacier compared to a clean one having the same area. These results may help improve scaling-based estimates of glacier volume and future glacier changes in regions where debris-covered glaciers are abundant.

Detailed Lacustrine Calving Iceberg Inventory from Very High Resolution Optical Imagery and Object-Based Image Analysis

In the field of iceberg and glacier calving studies, it is important to collect comprehensive datasets of populations of icebergs. Particularly, calving of lake-terminating glaciers has been understudied. The aim of this work is to present an object-based method of iceberg detection and to create an inventory of icebergs located in a proglacial lagoon of San Quintín glacier, Northern Patagonia Icefield, Chile. This dataset is created using high-resolution WorldView-2 imagery and a derived DEM. We use it to briefly discuss the iceberg size distribution and area–volume scaling. Segmentation of the multispectral imagery produced a map of objects, which were classified with use of Random Forest supervised classification algorithm. An intermediate classification product was corrected with a ruleset exploiting contextual information and a watershed algorithm that was used to divide multiple touching icebergs into separate objects. Common theoretical heavy-tail statistical distributions were tested as descriptors of iceberg area and volume distributions. Power law models were proposed for the area–volume relationship. The proposed method performed well over the open lake detecting correctly icebergs in all size bands except 5–15 m2 where many icebergs were missed. A section of the lagoon with ice melange was not reliably mapped due to uniformity of the area in the imagery and DEM. The precision of the DEM limited the scaling effort to icebergs taller than 1.7 m and larger than 99 m2, despite the inventory containing icebergs as small as 4 m2. The work demonstrates viability of object-based analysis for lacustrine iceberg detection and shows that the statistical properties of iceberg population at San Quintín glacier match those of populations produced by tidewater glaciers.

Basic Physics and the Shape of Glaciers

Glaciers provide an impressive application of fluid mechanics and materials, and thermal physics. The basic microphysical properties of ice determine the shape of a glacier or ice cap. The order of magnitude of the maximum ice thickness is predicted using Weisskopf’s heuristic argument for the maximum height of a mountain, which involves only the specific latent heat of fusion and the acceleration of gravity. The local thickness of a glacier depends on the assumed ice rheology. The equations describing the steady state longitudinal glacier profile differ greatly for perfectly plastic ice and for ice following Glen’s law. Analytical solutions of these equations are derived: they fit well the data for ice caps but less so for alpine glaciers. Volume-area scaling, a major tool of glaciology, is discussed in relation with glacier profiles.

Modeling past and future variation of glaciers in the Dongkemadi Ice Field on central Tibetan Plateau from 1989 to 2050

ABSTRACT Glacier mass balance change is among the best indicators of glacier response to climate change. Due to its inaccessibility and limited observation, little is known about the change to the Dongkemadi Ice Field (DIF) in the Tanggula Mountains located in the source region of the Yangtze River in central Tibetan Plateau. Here, an enhanced temperature index–based glacier model considering glacier area change was applied to study the temporal–spatial variation in mass balance on the DIF from 1989 to 2012 and to assess its response to climate change. The model was forced by reconstructed temperature and precipitation from adjacent national meteorological stations and validated by comparing with field observations from the Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier (XDG). Results show that the simulated mass balance is in good agreement with the observations (R 2 = 0.75, p < .001), and the model can reasonably reproduce well the glacier mass change. Then the model was applied to twenty individual glaciers in DIF and forced by the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) from 2013 to 2050 to project their further variation. In the future, the mass balance of glaciers in DIF shows a continuously negative trend with a linear rate of −0.16 m water equivalent (w.e.) a−1 in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and −0.35 m w.e. a−1 in RCP 8.5. Most of the glaciers’ equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) will reach or exceed their maximum elevation after the 2030s. By coupling a modified volume–area scaling method with the mass balance model, results showed that areas of the individual glaciers in DIF will lose about 12.10 to 30.66 percent under RCP4.5 and 14.06 to 38.76 percent under RCP8.5, and the volume of the DIF will lose about 1.18 km3 in RCP4.5 and 1.44 km3 in RCP8.5 by the end of 2050. In addition, the terminuses of glaciers experienced the largest percentage losses and most of the glaciers’ front position will reach ~5,520 m a.s.l. in RCP 4.5 and 5,570 m a.s.l. in RCP 8.5, the latter of which is nearly close to the DIF average ELA in 1989. The clearly increasing summer air temperature may be the main reason for glacier shrinkage in the DIF. If the warming trend continues, glaciers in DIF may further retreat with continued glacial melt or even mostly disappear by the end of the century.

Glacier-Surface Velocity Derived Ice Volume and Retreat Assessment in the Dhauliganga Basin, Central Himalaya – A Remote Sensing and Modeling Based Approach

Himalayan glaciers are a storehouse of fresh water and play a significant role in influencing the runoff through numerous perennial rivers flowing over the Indo-Gangetic plains, providing freshwater to the second largest populated country in the world. For suitable management of this water resource, measurement of glacier-ice volume is extremely important in the current scenario of climate change and water scarcity. To address this concern, the present study endeavors to find a suitable methodology to quantify glacier volume and retreat in the Central Himalaya. Herein, two methods were implemented to estimate the total glacier ice volume - conventional area-based scaling method and glacier-surface velocity based modeling technique. The availability of field data allowed a validation assessment to be carried out on two Himalayan glaciers (Chhota Shigri and Satopanth). Here, we propose a volume-area power law, appropriate for the application in the context of Himalayan glaciers. The ice volume of 15 glaciers larger than 1 km2 calculated using a spatially distributed ice thickness model is 3.78 × 109 m3 (f=0.8), with an overall uncertainty of 18.4%. The total volume of the remaining glaciers in the basin, calculated using a tuned volume-area scaling relation is 2.71 × 109 m3. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the influence of input parameters on the model and volume-area scaling performance. The study also incorporates investigation of the glacier bed topography for discrete identification of the overdeepening sites in the glacier valley which are potential lake formation sites in the future. A total of 54 overdeepening sites covering an area of 2.85 km2 have been identified. In addition, the relative glacier area loss of the glaciers is investigated using historical CORONA and Landsat satellite imageries. Glaciers with a smaller area and those with lower mean ice thickness near the terminus shrank significantly more, as compared to the larger ones. The total area of the selected larger glaciers is estimated to be 68 km2 in 2015 and deglaciation of 4.7 km2 is observed over the period of 48 years that accounts for 6.9% of the total area in 1968.

Exploring landslide erosion volume–area scaling relationships by slip depth using changes in DTMs for basin sediment volume estimation

Landslides produce large quantities of sediment deposits and reduce reservoir life. This study investigated landslides at the Shihmen Reservoir basin in Taiwan that were induced by Typhoon Sinlaku and Typhoon Jangmi in 2008. We formulate scaling relationships between landslide erosion volume and area and conclude that sediment budget can be estimated based on the easier-todetermine landslide erosion area. The methodologies applied for the investigation were geomorphological analysis through 5 m × 5 m digital terrain models (DTMs) of the basin created before and after the landslide events and spatial analysis through a geographic information system. The erosion area and volume of landslides were measured through the subtraction of DTMs produced before and after the events. Statistical analysis revealed that the landslide erosion frequency–magnitude distribution exhibited power-law behaviors with a scaling exponent of 2.15 for the frequency–area distribution and 1.66 for the frequency–volume distribution. This paper proposes different scaling relationships for different moving depths, and landslide erosion volumes were estimated on the basis of depth; thus, landslides of different scales can be distinguished to avoid errors in volume estimation. Two different scaling exponents are proposed: 1.21 for landslide erosions with depths of less than 2 m and 1.01 for landslide erosions with depths of more than 2 m. The proposed scaling relationships are practical for landslide erosion volume estimation by different depths according to the landslide area, and they can provide preliminary results for sediment budget planning in a reservoir basin.