Arduous March Research Articles

Integrating local ecological knowledge and remote sensing reveals patterns and drivers of forest cover change: North Korea as a case study

Satellite-based remote sensing approaches provide a cost-efficient means to collect information on the world’s forests and to repeatedly survey large, or inaccessible, forest areas. However, it may not always be possible to ground truth–associated findings using direct ecological field surveys conducted by trained forest scientists. Local ecological knowledge (LEK) is an alternative form of data which could be used to complement, interpret and verify information from satellite data. Using a case study on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), we evaluate the potential for integrating remote sensing and LEK data, gathered with non-specialist former residents, to understand patterns and drivers of forest cover change. LEK reports often concurred with, or provided key information to enable interpretation of, satellite data. This revealed that between 1986 and 2021, North Korea experienced high, but uneven, rates of deforestation. There was a pronounced northwards deforestation shift in the mid-1990s, coinciding with a period of extreme hardship and famine (the “Arduous March”), and associated with clearance of trees in more forested northern provinces as an economic and fuel resource, and conversion of forest to agricultural cropland. Loss of forest cover in North Korea has continued and recently accelerated, to a rate of > 200 km2 per annum between 2019 and 2021. This increases the vulnerability of North Korean socio-ecological systems to future environmental change and is an obstacle to the recovery of threatened species across the Korean Peninsula. We recommend that LEK- and remote sensing–based approaches are considered within a suite of complementary techniques to analyse forest changes where ecological field surveys cannot be conducted.

The End of Feminized Migration?: Gendering Violent Borders and Geographies of North Korean Migration from the Arduous March to the COVID-19 Era

The End of Feminized Migration?: Gendering Violent Borders and Geographies of North Korean Migration from the Arduous March to the COVID-19 Era

Food Security or Food Sovereignty? Agricultural Technology Reforms after the Famine in North Korea

How did North Koreans reform their agricultural technology after the massive famine in the 1990s? While the existing literature focuses its analysis on the nexus between the state and market to assess the possibility of a transition economy, we instead examine agricultural methods and technologies employed in farmlands to evaluate the nature of technological reforms. After identifying technology reforms on the basis of primary sources published in the DPRK such as yearbooks, academic journals, and newspaper articles, as well as other materials published in South Korea, Japan, and the United States and by international organizations, we classify them into two kinds of initiatives: modernization measures that sought to address the earlier failure to modernize agricultural technologies, and ecology-friendly farming practices designed to reduce or reverse the negative externalities of industrial agriculture such as overdependence on chemical fertilizers or erosion of soil fertility. While the two are commonly seen as incompatible by scholars of agriculture, we conclude that North Koreans synthesized the two to transform their decaying industrial agriculture into a more modernized and ecology-friendly sector. They have, through these reforms, maintained food sovereignty as their pillar of agriculture but complemented it with food security on a national scale as a way to maximize their agriculture outputs. Most of these initiatives seem to continue to date although it remains to be seen if they have actually succeeded in increasing overall agricultural productivity and sustainability.

The Right to Food and Responsibility to Protect in North Korea: In the Face of Food Availability Decline and Food Entitlement Decline*

The North Korean authorities have the responsibility to protect (R2P) their people from starvation. Yet, reports of death from starvation in North Korea have been consistent since the widespread famine during the so‐called “Arduous March.” According to Amartya Sen, in a society with massive starvation and food refugees, famine crises are not merely due to food availability decline (FAD). Instead, the dominant variable in such crises is the food entitlement decline (FED) of vulnerable social groups. Therefore, since the repeated failure of the North Korean government to fulfill its responsibility justifies and obliges the international community to act, the “food entitlement” of the North Korean people needs to be further explored from social, economic, and political perspectives to help clarify and validate such international responsibility. Focusing on Kim Jong‐un's leadership since 2012, this paper explores the substance and causes of FAD and FED in North Korea and monitors any changes. To seek effective commitments from the international community, including South Korea, the current research also analyzes the impact of the persistent violation of the people's right to food on the North Korean economic‐social system and political regime, and the ensuing influence on the human rights situation with reference to the cases of Vietnam, China, and Mongolia in terms of the dichotomic social differentiation, beginnings of the civil society, and political change in the late‐communist stage.

The Weakening of Social Control in North Korea since the Arduous March: The Case of Physical Education

ABSTRACT This article shows how much the North Korean regime’s control over its people’s bodies has weakened as a result of the loosening of micro-power since the ‘Arduous March’ of the late 1990s. To track these types of micro-level change, the study uses Foucault’s disciplinary power and historico-critical ontology to explore the disciplinary power that has been exercised through physical education (PE) classes in North Korean schools for more than 70 years. According to Foucault, modern states have instituted networks of disciplinary power in their societies to control their people, using the political technique of the body. This type of power is directed at everyday life through social practices. By drawing on primary sources regarding PE in North Korea and on seven interviews with defectors, the article illustrates that micro-power began to develop a meticulous PE network in the school system from the 1950s and mass-produced a ‘New Communist Man’ in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the Arduous March disrupted the public distribution system, and both the network of micro-power and the institutional network of PE began to loosen. Subsequently, the New Communist Man in North Korea seems to be gradually being liberated from micro-power and is less likely to internalise obedience.

Developing an Agent-Based Model to Mitigate Famine Risk in North Korea: Insights from the “Artificial North Korean Collective Farm” Model

North Korea experienced a catastrophic famine in the mid-1990s that resulted in millions of deaths. This study aims to build an agent-based model to understand the risk of land degradation and famine in North Korea and explore potential solutions to mitigate this risk. The model concept reflects the general information of collective farms in North Korea, which was set in 1960, and the abstract of the social–ecological system of North Korean agriculture. The model comprises the agent, environment, and external factors. An agent is defined as a household that decides its labor allocation and land use by how much food it has. The environment is set to multiple layers that represent the soil environment of the farm, affected by agents’ decisions. The external factors reflect a land-use restriction policy, international trade (food aid), and climate change. We calibrated the model using data from North Korea and simulated various scenarios. Our findings suggest that the famine in the model would occur around 35 years later, almost reflecting the 1995 famine in the real world. The scenario-based simulations show that additional food aid or import could delay the famine, but fundamental solutions are needed to break the vicious circle of land degradation and declining food yield. Our study provides insights into the complex adaptive system of North Korean agriculture and the critical points of famine risk. Our agent-based model can be a useful tool for policymakers and researchers to explore potential solutions and inform risk management strategies.

Theches: an elusive mountain

AbstractThis article deals with the location of Mount Theches, the vantage point from which Xenophon’s Ten Thousand famously got their first sight of the sea after a long and arduous march across eastern Anatolia. It discusses what the written sources can and cannot tell us about this iconic spot, comments on the currently favoured identification (stressing its dependence on an assumption about the route the army followed to and from the vantage point), and presents three other places that can come into contention if different assumptions are made about the route. The aim is not to insist that one or other of these is the correct solution but rather to underline the point that, since we do not (and are never likely to) know how the Ten Thousand approached Theches, and since there are many points in the Pontic Mountains behind Trabzon from which the sea can be glimpsed in the far distance, the identity of Theches is a problem that does not admit of more than conjectural solution. This prompts broader reflections on the textual and the topographical, and the relationship between landscape and narrative.

The North Korean famine and inter-Korean relations - Disaster diplomacy perspective

In this study, we analyze government-level inter-Korean disaster diplomacy in order to assess the impact of the North Korean famine (1994–1998) on inter-Korean relations. By considering disasters as political shocks, we explore how the dynamics of change unfolded over time and, accordingly, whether or not the North Korean famine marked a moment of profound political change in South Korea-North Korea relations. Our study examines disaster aid as a diplomatic instrument both historically and politically, offering the first comprehensive analysis of inter-Korean disaster diplomacy. Based on a qualitative analysis of South Korean aid policies and North Korea's responses between 1995 and 2010, it is argued that despite the North Korean famine triggering a momentary rapprochement, inter-Korean relations have not changed much over the long term. Instead of focusing on spontaneously occurring calamities, such as earthquakes or tsunamis, this study presents the first examination of the long-term implications of a slow-onset, prolonged disaster: famine. By this, we contribute an underexplored perspective to disaster diplomacy literature and a new angle on the research of inter-Korean relations.

초대받지 못한 손님과 복화술사들: 탈북문학과 혐오담론

This paper explores the themes of North Korean defectors’ novels published recently, and examines the discourse of hatred against defectors in the writings. At first North Korean defectors’ literature deals with the “conditional” acceptance of North Korean defectors as our neighbors. North Korean defectors, despite their continuous migration into South Korea since the “The Arduous March” period in the mid-1990s, are still usually imagined as “kkotjebi in jangmadang” or poor children who are begging in the marketplace. This outdated popular image, keeping their neighbors indifferent or unwilling to get close to them, drives North Koreans away from the network of social relationships. Secondly, the writings point out the problem of a hierarchical view toward North Korean defectors. The widespread notion that North Korean defectors are taken care of with “our” tax develops readily into the idea that “we” are being harmed by them. The general response to defectors, which converts sympathy and compassion into indifference and exclusion, keeps them as legitimate strangers or guests who are invited by nobody. Lastly, the novels are concerned about the sufferings of the next generation. Children of North Korean female defectors and Chinese men, embarrassed with their identity in South Korea but exposed to an identity crisis and negative self-perceptions, do not receive any proper attention. By describing the reality of North Korean migrants and exemplifying the cases of solidarity and hatred in South Korea, North Korean defectors’ literary writings require us to think together about what should be done against hatred.

Alas, the Return of the Lasso

Independent of the imperative to surgically treat concomitant atrial fibrillation, surgeons should close the left atrial appendage (LAA). The Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion Study (LAAOS III)1 is the third installment of the arduous march to establish the effect of LAA closure during cardiac surgery in atrial fibrillation patients. For many, leaving a patent LAA in an atrial fibrillation patient is to turn our backs on clear evidence revealing that the LAA is a persistent danger. We know that standard of care does not translate into lifelong anticoagulation compliance.

The North Korean Famine and Inter-Korean Relations - Disaster Diplomacy Perspective

The North Korean Famine and Inter-Korean Relations - Disaster Diplomacy Perspective

Precarity to empowerment: the consequences of female North Korean defectors’ coping skills and social navigation

This ethnographic study of female North Korean defectors in the UK opens discussions on the notion that agency and social navigation can countermand economic and political precarity to the point of empowerment. I challenge existing literature and schools of thought that precarity is double edged and suggest the term of social navigation, which these women employ to traverse their shifting environment leading to unintentional empowerment. By documenting North Korean women’s plight from the 1994 to 1998 famine in North Korea to their defection to South Korea and subsequent resettlement to London’s New Malden, I plot their progression and growing confidence as they parlay precarity to empowerment. Research collected on their lives during the economic crisis in North Korea before defection revealed their resourceful and somewhat defiant ventures into capitalist-style markets. Analysing the results of the fieldwork conducted in a suburb of New Malden’s Koreatown, I discovered that these women’s adaptability and ethnic networks enabled them to not only survive uncertain situations but thrive. The shift from care-giver to bread-winner that started in North Korea was consolidated in the UK as they once again turned adversity to an advantage when the UK government decreased financial support. In the Korean community, by focusing on educational and cultural activities instead of political turmoil, those women have been able to focus on moving forward. As a result, they have found a power in themselves to make differences in their lives.

A Discourse Analysis of Power in North Korea after the ‘Arduous March’: Revolving around Michael Mann’s ‘Economic Power’ Model

A Discourse Analysis of Power in North Korea after the ‘Arduous March’: Revolving around Michael Mann’s ‘Economic Power’ Model

Dying for rights: putting North Korea's human rights abuses on the record

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) may have the worst human right record in the world. Imagine a country where you can be sentenced to a long prison term for singing a foreign song, possessing a bible, or complaining about a dire state-induced famine—and this only skims the surface. Perhaps due to preoccupation with the nuclear issue and the inability to get good data, there are few comprehensive works on rights in this benighted country. That is where Sandra Fahy's masterful catalogue of North Korea's rights abuses comes in. She believes that North Koreans ‘endlessly’ suffer a winter bereft of ordinary rights (p. 261). Her book details various types of violations: the well-known detentions without due process, torture, summary executions and the most horrible prison camps in the communist world, on top of denial of rights to movement, religious practice, food and freedom from discrimination. The famine of the 1990s was one of the worst man-made disasters of the twentieth century. It did not directly threaten the regime, but it changed the country's rights environment. The right to food is widely accepted internationally, and famine is often blamed on overpopulation and geographic or climate issues. Actually, famine in most countries results from lack of access to food, especially if it is poorly allocated due to power relations within a society, or ‘deliberate acts of commission’ (p. 47). Because famines only gradually develop, people usually do not see a clear link to the government and often do not blame officials. The North Korean official narrative that all people were joined not in famine, but in an ‘arduous march’, made it easy to blame foreign pressure on the country. The problem for the DPRK was that the famine caused ordinary people to violate laws in order to survive. Most notably, they had to seek resources from China, South Korea and beyond. The regime's failure to take action for food security meant that famine-like conditions have since reccured every few years.

Trouble Brewing: The North Korean Famine of 1954–1955 and Soviet Attitudes toward North Korea

This article, based on newly available materials from the former Soviet archives, deals with the famine that struck a large part of the North Korean countryside in the winter of 1954–1955. The famine was related to the policies of crash industrialization and collectivization favored by Kim Il-sung—or at least, this is how many contemporaries, including Soviet diplomats, saw it. The famine, mentioned only once in openly available publications of the period, sparked political instability and prompted the urgent delivery of food assistance from the USSR and China. Soviet leaders, seeing the famine as another sign of the dangerous trends of Kim Il-Sung's policies, gave Pyongyang strong “advice,” demanding a moderation of policies and partial halt of the collectivization drive. The “advice” was followed, but the entire confrontation contributed to the further buildup of tensions between Moscow and Kim Il-Sung.

Discourses on the Natural Environment in North Korea: Changing Regime Dynamics in the 1990s

ABSTRACT During the mid- and late 1990s in North Korea, a period marked by the “Arduous March”, discourse shifted from “conquering” the natural environment to “rationally using and protecting” it. It is argued in this article that this change was related to the dynamic character of the North Korean regime, which evolves according to changing circumstances. Thus, this study aims to examine this change in discourse about the natural environment, focussing on features of North Korean discourses that directly demonstrate the government’s identification of pending issues and its methods of address-ing them. It finds that the primary issues confronting the government during the Arduous March – overcoming food and economic crises and establishing the regime’s superiority – and the methods to cope with these dilemmas closely factored into the change. To enhance the reliability of this study, we examined key outlets for discourses in North Korea, including collections of the Supreme Leader’s speeches; newspapers and magazines published by the Korean Workers’ Party; and articles in academic journals authored mainly by scholars vetted by the state.

A Theoretical Understanding of the Vulnerabilities of the North Korean Youth Born in the Arduous March to Substance Use Disorders in Attachment Theory : Social-Psycho-Neurophysiological Perspectives

북한에서 마약류의 사용은 더 이상 간과할 수 없는 심각한 문제로 대두되고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 애착이론을 통해 북한청년의 물질사용장에 취약 가능성에 대해 사회, 심리, 신경 생리적 관점을 통해 이론적으로 고찰하고, 이에 대한 문제의식을 고취하고자 한다. 먼저, 사회적 관점에서 북한 청년의 불안정 애착을 유발시킬 수 있었던 고난의 행군시기의 사회적 상황과 북한의 마약류 사용 실태에 대해 제시했다. 심리적 관점에서는 북한청년의 초기 외상적 경험과 불안정 애착이 어떻게 물질사용장애의 발현에 취약요인이 되는가에 대해 애착이론의 관점에서 고찰하였다. 또한 신경 생리적 관점에서는 물질사용장애의 신경생리적 메커니즘과 애착에 의한 유아 초기 뇌 발달영역에서 공통적으로 나타나는 뇌의 해부학적 유사성과 해당 영역의 기능을 살펴보면서, 북한청년 물질사용장애 취약성의 대해 고찰했다. 끝으로 이 연구를 통해 향후 북한청년과 물질사용장애에 관한 향후 연구 방향과 기독 상담적 접근방안과 교회의 역할에 대해 제안했다.

Mobile North Korean Women and Long-Distance Motherhood: The (Re)Construction of Intimacy and the Ambivalence of Family

Over the past decade, we have witnessed a dramatic shift in the role of North Korean women, from traditional mother to breadwinner. Economic collapse, famine, and the so-called Arduous March have had unintended consequences for North Koreans, forcing them to become more active economic agents. Many North Korean women started working in the black market (jangmadang), and became extremely mobile, seeking economic opportunities in new cities, new regions, and even across national borders. As a result, the mobility of North Korean women and their economic activities in the market have had a significant influence in contemporary North Korean families. It can be argued that the traditional woman, or typical mother under patriarchy, is now considered to be less ideal, giving way to a new, economically dynamic model for women in North Korean society. North Korean women retain a strong commitment to motherhood when they cross into the Sino-North Korean borderland, and actively engage with the children they have left behind through remittances and regular phone calls. Geographical distance and their illegal status do hamper their mothering practices to an extent, causing intimacy and motherhood to undergo substantial changes in North Korean families. Nevertheless, North Korean migrant mothers still prioritize long-distance motherhood over their own personal well-being as well as that of any new families they make or join in the course of their migration trajectories.

북한의 자본스톡 추정 및 시사점 (Estimating Capital Stock in North Korea and Its Implications)

Korean Abstract: 본고는 1955~2018년중 북한의 투자시계열을 구축하고 영구재고법으로 자본스톡을 추계한 후 이를 통해 북한의 경제성장 요인을 살펴본 것이다. 자본스톡은 건설자산과 설비자산을 구분하여 추정하였다. 추정 결과 북한의 자본스톡은 1955년 이후 1989년까지 빠르게 증가하다 1990년대에 크게 감소하였으며 2000년대 이후 다시 회복되었다. 북한의 자본스톡은 2018년 현재 1989년보다 24% 높은 수준이고, GDP의 3.9배로 선진국에서 일반적으로 관측되는 3배 수준보다 많은 것으로 추정되었다. 2018년 현재 전체 자본스톡 가운데 설비자산이 8%에 불과하였는데 이는 남한의 1970~90년 평균 수준인 32%와 대비되는 모습이다. 성장회계 분석 결과 북한은 경제성장 초기에 외연적 성장을 달성하기도 하였으나 이후 총요소생산성 감소에 주로 기인하여 성장이 정체되거나 부진한 회복세를 보인 것으로 나타났다. 1990년대 경제위기를 겪었으며 2000년 이후에는 투입 증가율이 낮아진 가운데 생산성 부진이 지속되면서 저성장 기조가 유지되었다. 2017년 이후에는 제재 여파로 투입증가율이 더욱 낮아지고 생산성이 크게 감소하여 경제성장률이 급락하였다. 한편 빈곤의 덫과 유휴자본의 특징을 보인 북한의 1990년대 경제위기 이후는 레온티에프 생산함수에 기반한 해로드-도마 성장모형으로 해석해 볼 수 있다. 북한은 현재 자본재 금수조치로 성장여건이 크게 악화된 상황인 만큼 기업소와 농장의 소유구조 및 운영방식의 혁신을 통해 생산성과 효율성, 창의성을 증진하는 제도개선이 요구되고 있다. 또한 북한이 경제침체로부터 벗어나려면 인적 물적 자본 축적이 필수적인 만큼 선진국의 자본과 기술 도입을 위해 대외관계 개선 및 적극적 개방정책이 시급해 보인다. 본고의 추정에도 불구하고 개별자산의 역사적 축적과정과의 비교, 디플레이터 산출, 성장 추정에 사용되는 물량자료의 정확성 제고 등을 위한 노력이 계속되어야 한다. 특히 본고의 자본스톡 추정은 북한의 여타 거시통계의 추정 개선 작업과 연계된 만큼 아직 미완성의 잠정치로 이해되어야 한다. English Abstract: This study aims to estimate the capital stock in North Korea from 1955 to 2018, based on the perpetual inventory method, and then to explain its economic growth. The capital stock is estimated by decomposing it into construction assets and equipment assets. Estimates show that North Korea's capital stock increased rapidly from 1955 to 1989, then decreased significantly in the 1990s, and recovered since the 2000s. The capital stock estimate as of 2018 stands at 24% higher than that in 1989. The capital stock/GDP ratio as of 2018 is around 3.9 times, which is higher than 3.0, the ratio commonly observed in many advanced economies. The estimated share of equipment capital within total capital is only 8% as of 2018, which compares with the corresponding rate (32%) during the 1970-1990 period in South Korea. Growth accounting analysis shows that North Korea achieved a rapid input-led growth in the early stages of economic growth, but has since shown stagnant or sluggish growth, due mainly to a drop in total factor productivity. It suffered from the economic crisis in the 1990s, and after 2000 the low growth pattern was maintained as productivity continued to remain sluggish amid a lower input growth rate. Since 2017, the economic growth rate has plummeted due to a further drop in the input growth rate and a significant drop in productivity in the wake of sanctions. We believe that the negative GDP growth rate during the so-called “Arduous March Period,” and the low growth seen in succeeding periods that has been characterized by idle capacity with a poverty trap, can be explained by a Harrod (1939)-Domar (1946) model based on the Leontief production function as outlined in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995). As North Korea's growth conditions have deteriorated significantly due to the embargo on capital goods, it is required to improve its system that promotes productivity, efficiency and creativity through innovation in the ownership structure and management of farms and enterprises. More favorable foreign relations and an active opening policy are also necessary to attract foreign investment and technology, which is essential for human and physical capital accumulation and the resulting economic growth. Despite the estimates of this study, efforts should continue to be made to compare the historical accumulation process of individual assets, to calculate deflators, and to enhance the accuracy of production data used in estimating economic growth. In particular, the capital stock estimates in this paper should be understood as preliminary figures, as it is linked to work to improve the estimation of North Korea's other macro statistics.

A Study on Type of North Korean Parents’ Educational Support after Arduous March

A Study on Type of North Korean Parents’ Educational Support after Arduous March