Arctic Gateways Research Articles

StraitFlux – precise computations of water strait fluxes on various modeling grids

Abstract. Oceanic transports shape the global climate, but the evaluation and validation of this key quantity based on reanalysis and model data are complicated by the distortion of the used curvilinear ocean model grids towards their displaced north poles. Combined with the large number of different grid types, this has made the exact calculation of oceanic transports a challenging and time-consuming task. Use of data interpolated to standard latitude/longitude grids is not an option, since transports computed from interpolated velocity fields are not mass-consistent. We present two methods for transport calculations on grids with variously shifted north poles, different orientations, and different Arakawa partitions. The first method calculates net transports through arbitrary sections using line integrals, while the second method generates cross sections of the vertical–horizontal planes of these sections using vector projection algorithms. Apart from the input data on the original model grids, the user only needs to specify the start and endpoints of the required section to get the net transports (for the first method) and their cross sections (for the second method). Integration of the cross sections along their depth and horizontal extent yields net transports in very good quantitative agreement with the line integration method. This allows us to calculate oceanic fluxes through almost arbitrary sections to compare them with observed oceanic volume and energy transports at available sections, such as the RAPID array or at Fram Strait and other Arctic gateways, or to compare them amongst reanalyses and to model integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs). We implemented our methods in a Python package called StraitFlux. This paper represents its scientific documentation and demonstrates its application on outputs of multiple CMIP6 models and several ocean reanalyses. We also analyze the robustness and computational performance of the tools, as well as the uncertainties in the results. The package is available on GitHub and Zenodo and can be installed using pypi.

An assessment of the CMIP6 performance in simulating Arctic sea ice volume flux via Fram Strait

Numerical models serve as an essential tool to investigate the causes and effects of Arctic sea ice changes. Evaluating the simulation capabilities of the most recent CMIP6 models in sea ice volume flux provides references for model applications and improvements. Meanwhile, reliable long-term simulation results of the ice volume flux contribute to a deeper understanding of the sea ice response to global climate change. In this study, the sea ice volume flux through six Arctic gateways over the past four decades (1979–2014) were estimated in combination of satellite observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice motion (SIM) as well as the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reanalysis sea ice thickness (SIT) data. The simulation capability of 17 CMIP6 historical models for the volume flux through Fram Strait were quantitatively assessed. Sea ice volume flux simulated from the ensemble mean of 17 CMIP6 models demonstrates better performance than that from the individual model, yet IPSL-CM6A-LR and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR outperform the ensemble mean in the annual volume flux, with Taylor scores of 0.86 and 0.50, respectively. CMIP6 models display relatively robust capability in simulating the seasonal variations of volume flux. Among them, CESM2-WACCM performs the best, with a correlation coefficient of 0.96 and a Taylor score of 0.88. Conversely, NESM3 demonstrates the largest deviation from the observation/reanalysis data, with the lowest Taylor score of 0.16. The variability of sea ice volume flux is primarily influenced by SIM and SIT, followed by SIC. The extreme large sea ice export through Fram Strait is linked to the occurrence of anomalously low air temperatures, which in turn promote increased SIC and SIT in the corresponding region. Moreover, the intensified activity of Arctic cyclones and Arctic dipole anomaly could boost the southward sea ice velocity through Fram Strait, which further enhance the sea ice outflow.

Impact of assimilation of absolute dynamic topography on Arctic Ocean circulation

The ocean circulation is typically constrained in operational analysis and forecasting systems through the assimilation of sea level anomaly (SLA) retrievals from satellite altimetry. This approach has limited benefits in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas due to data gaps caused by sea ice coverage. Moreover, assimilation of SLA in seasonally ice-free regions may be negatively affected by the quality of the Mean Sea Surface (MSS) used to derive the SLA. Here, we use the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) to investigate the impact of assimilating Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) fields on the circulation in the Arctic Ocean. This approach avoids the use of a MSS and additionally provides information on sea level in ice covered regions using measurements across leads (openings) in the sea ice. RIOPS uses a coupled ice-ocean model on a 3-4 km grid-resolution pan-Arctic domain together with a multi-variate reduced-order Kalman Filter. The system assimilates satellite altimetry and sea surface temperature together with in situ profile observations. The background error is modified to match the spectral characteristics of the ADT fields, which contain less energy at small scales than traditional SLA due to filtering applied to reduce noise originating in the geoid product used. A series of four-year reanalyses demonstrate significant reductions in innovation statistics with important impacts across the Arctic Ocean. Results suggest that the assimilation of ADT can improve circulation and sea ice drift in the Arctic Ocean, and intensify volume transports through key Arctic gateways and resulting exchanges with the Atlantic Ocean. A reanalysis with a modified Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) is able to reproduce many of the benefits of the ADT but does not capture the enhanced transports. Assimilation of SLA observations from leads in the sea ice appears to degrade several circulation features; however, these results may be sensitive to errors in MDT. This study highlights the large uncertainties that exist in present operational ocean forecasting systems for the Arctic Ocean due to the relative paucity and reduced quality of observations compared to ice-free areas of the Global Ocean. Moreover, this underscores the need for dedicated and focused efforts to address this critical gap in the Global Ocean Observing System.

Impact of increased resolution on Arctic Ocean simulations in Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of increasing resolution on Arctic Ocean simulations using five pairs of matched low- and high-resolution models within the OMIP-2 (Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2) framework. The primary objective is to assess whether a higher resolution can mitigate typical biases in low-resolution models and improve the representation of key climate-relevant variables. We reveal that increasing the horizontal resolution contributes to a reduction in biases in mean temperature and salinity and improves the simulation of the Atlantic water layer and its decadal warming events. A higher resolution also leads to better agreement with observed surface mixed-layer depth, cold halocline base depth and Arctic gateway transports in the Fram and Davis straits. However, the simulation of the mean state and temporal changes in Arctic freshwater content does not show improvement with increased resolution. Not all models achieve improvements for all analyzed ocean variables when spatial resolution is increased so it is crucial to recognize that model numerics and parameterizations also play an important role in faithful simulations. Overall, a higher resolution shows promise in improving the simulation of key Arctic Ocean features and processes, but efforts in model development are required to achieve more accurate representations across all climate-relevant variables.

Sea ice-ocean coupling during Heinrich Stadials in the Atlantic–Arctic gateway

The variability of Arctic sea-ice during abrupt stadial-interstadial shifts in the last glacial period remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the millennial-scale relationship, with a focus on Heinrich Stadials (HS), between sea-ice cover and bottom water temperature (BWT) during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 2 (64–13 ka) in the Fram Strait using new molecular sea ice biomarker data and published benthic foraminiferal BWT records. Widespread spring sea-ice cover (SpSIC) dominated the studied interval, especially in mid-late MIS 3 (45–29 ka). Yet, warm interstadials were characterized by relatively more open-ocean conditions compared to cold stadials. At the transition between a HS and the subsequent interstadial, sea ice was tightly linked to BWT with rapid reductions in SpSIC coinciding with lower BWT at the end of HS. The relative timing of the events, especially during HS 1, points to ocean warming as the key controlling factor for sea ice reduction at millennial timescales.

Exceptional sea ice loss leading to anomalously deep winter convection north of Svalbard in 2018

AbstractAn important question is will deep convection sites, where deep waters are ventilated and air-gas exchange into the deep ocean occurs, emerge in the Arctic Ocean with the warming climate. As sea ice retreats northward and as Arctic sea ice becomes younger and thinner, air-sea interactions are strengthening in the high-latitude oceans. This includes new and extreme deep convection events. We investigate the associated physical processes and examine impacts and implications. Focusing on a region near the Arctic gateway of Fram Strait, our study confirms a significant sea ice cover reduction north of Svalbard in 2018 compared to the past decade, shown in observations and several numerical studies. We conduct our study using the regional configuration Arctic and North Hemisphere Atlantic of the ocean/sea ice model NEMO, running at 1/12° resolution (ANHA12). Our numerical study shows that the open water condition during the winter of 2018 allows intense winter convection over the Yermak Plateau, as more oceanic heat is lost to the atmosphere without the insulating sea ice cover, causing the mixed layer depth to reach over 600 m. Anomalous wind prior to the deep convection event forces offshore sea ice movement and contributes to the reduced sea ice cover. The sea ice loss is also attributed to the excess heat brought by the Atlantic Water, which reaches its maximum in the preceding winter in Fram Strait. The deep convection event coincides with enhanced mesoscale eddy activity on the boundary of the Yermak Plateau, especially to the east. The resulting substantial heat loss to the atmosphere also leads to a heat content reduction integrated over the Yermak Plateau region. This event can be linked to the minimum southward sea ice volume flux through Fram Strait in 2018, which is a potential negative freshwater anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic.

Marine nitrogen-fixers in the Canadian Arctic Gateway are dominated by biogeographically distinct noncyanobacterial communities.

We describe diazotrophs present during a 2015 GEOTRACES expedition through the Canadian Arctic Gateway (CAG) using nifH metabarcoding. In the less studied Labrador Sea, Bradyrhizobium sp. and Vitreoscilla sp. nifH variants were dominant, while in Baffin Bay, a Stutzerimonas stutzeri variant was dominant. In comparison, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) was characterized by a broader set of dominant variants belonging to Desulfobulbaceae, Desulfuromonadales, Arcobacter sp., Vibrio spp., and Sulfuriferula sp. Although dominant diazotrophs fell within known nifH clusters I and III, only a few of these variants were frequently recovered in a 5-year weekly nifH times series in the coastal NW Atlantic presented herein, notably S. stutzeri and variants belonging to Desulfobacterales and Desulfuromonadales. In addition, the majority of dominant Arctic nifH variants shared low similarity (< 92% nucleotide identities) to sequences in a global noncyanobacterial diazotroph catalog recently compiled by others. We further detected UCYN-A throughout the CAG at low-levels using quantitative-PCR assays. Temperature, depth, salinity, oxygen, and nitrate were most strongly correlated to the Arctic diazotroph diversity observed, and we found a stark division between diazotroph communities of the Labrador Sea versus Baffin Bay and the CAA, hence establishing that a previously unknown biogeographic community division can occur for diazotrophs in the CAG.

Emerging phylogeographic perspective on the toxigenic diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia in coastal northern European waters and gateways to eastern Arctic seas: Causes, ecological consequences and socio-economic impacts

The diatom Pseudo-nitzschia H. Peragallo is perhaps the most intensively researched genus of marine pennate diatoms, with respect to species diversity, life history strategies, toxigenicity, and biogeographical distribution. The global magnitude and consequences of harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Pseudo-nitzschia are particularly significant because of the high socioeconomic impacts and environmental and human health risks associated with the production of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) among populations of many (although not all) species. This has led to enhanced monitoring and mitigation strategies for toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms and their toxins in recent years. Nevertheless, human adaptive actions based on future scenarios of bloom dynamics and proposed shifts in biogeographical distribution under climate-change regimes have not been implemented on a regional scale. In the CoCliME (Co-development of climate services for adaptation to changing marine ecosystems) program these issues were addressed with respect to past, current and anticipated future status of key HAB genera such as Pseudo-nitzschia and expected benefits of enhanced monitoring. Data on the distribution and frequency of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in relation to DA occurrence and associated amnesic shellfish toxin (AST) events were evaluated in a contemporary and historical context over the past several decades from key northern CoCliME Case Study areas. The regional studies comprised the greater North Sea and adjacent Kattegat-Skagerrak and Norwegian Sea, eastern North Atlantic marginal seas and Arctic gateways, and the Baltic Sea. The first evidence of possible biogeographical expansion of Pseudo-nitzschia taxa into frontier eastern Arctic gateways was provided from DNA barcoding signatures. Key climate change indicators, such as salinity, temperature, and water-column stratification were identified as drivers of upwelling and advection related to the distribution of regional Pseudo-nitzschia blooms. The possible influence of changing variables on bloom dynamics, magnitude, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution were interpreted in the context of regional ocean climate models. These climate change indicators may play key roles in selecting for the occurrence and diversity of Pseudo-nitzschia species within the broader microeukaryote communities. Shifts to higher temperature and lower salinity regimes predicted for the southern North Sea indicate the potential for high-magnitude Pseudo-nitzschia blooms, currently absent from this area. Ecological and socioeconomic impacts of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms are evaluated with reference to effects on fisheries and mariculture resources and coastal ecosystem function. Where feasible, effective adaptation strategies are proposed herein as emerging climate services for the northern CoCLiME region.

The Importance of Subsurface Productivity in the Pacific Arctic Gateway as Revealed by High‐Resolution Biogeochemical Surveys

AbstractFollowing sea‐ice retreat, surface waters of Arctic marginal seas become nutrient‐limited and subsurface chlorophyll maxima (SCM) develop below the pycnocline where nutrients and light conditions are favorable. However, the importance of these “hidden” features for regional productivity is not well constrained. Here, we use a unique combination of high‐resolution biogeochemical and physical observations collected on the Chukchi shelf in 2017 to constrain the fine‐scale structure of nutrients, O2, particles, SCM, and turbulence. We find large O2 excess at middepth, identified by positive saturation () maxima of 15%–20% that unambiguously indicate significant production occurring in middepth waters. The maxima coincided with a complete depletion of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN = NO3− + NO2− + NH4+). Nitracline depths aligned with SCM depths and the lowest extent of maxima, suggesting this horizon represents a compensation point for balanced growth and loss. Furthermore, SCM were also associated with turbulence minima and sat just above a high turbidity bottom layer where light attenuation increased significantly. Spatially, the largest maxima were associated with high nutrient winter‐origin water masses (14.8% ± 2.4%), under a shallower pycnocline associated with seasonal melt while lower values were associated with summer‐origin water masses (7.4% ± 3.9%). Integrated O2 excesses of 800–1,200 mmol m−2 in regions overlying winter water are consistent with primary production rates that are 12%–40% of previously reported regional primary production. These data implicate short‐term and long‐term control of SCM and associated productivity by stratification, turbulence, light, and seasonal water mass formation, with corresponding potential for climate‐related sensitivities.

A Review of Arctic–Subarctic Ocean Linkages: Past Changes, Mechanisms, and Future Projections

Arctic Ocean gateway fluxes play a crucial role in linking the Arctic with the global ocean and affecting climate and marine ecosystems. We reviewed past studies on Arctic–Subarctic ocean linkages and examined their changes and driving mechanisms. Our review highlights that radical changes occurred in the inflows and outflows of the Arctic Ocean during the 2010s. Specifically, the Pacific inflow temperature in the Bering Strait and Atlantic inflow temperature in the Fram Strait hit record highs, while the Pacific inflow salinity in the Bering Strait and Arctic outflow salinity in the Davis and Fram straits hit record lows. Both the ocean heat convergence from lower latitudes to the Arctic and the hydrological cycle connecting the Arctic with Subarctic seas were stronger in 2000–2020 than in 1980–2000. CMIP6 models project a continuing increase in poleward ocean heat convergence in the 21st century, mainly due to warming of inflow waters. They also predict an increase in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean, with the largest increase in freshwater export expected to occur in the Fram Strait due to both increased ocean volume export and decreased salinity. Fram Strait sea ice volume export hit a record low in the 2010s and is projected to continue to decrease along with Arctic sea ice decline. We quantitatively attribute the variability of the volume, heat, and freshwater transports in the Arctic gateways to forcing within and outside the Arctic based on dedicated numerical simulations and emphasize the importance of both origins in driving the variability.

Apparent biogeographical trends in Alexandrium blooms for northern Europe: identifying links to climate change and effective adaptive actions

The marine dinoflagellate Alexandrium Halim represents perhaps the most significant and intensively studied genus with respect to species diversity, life history strategies, toxigenicity, biogeographical distribution, and global magnitude and consequences harmful algal blooms (HABs). The socioeconomic impacts, environmental and human health risks, and mitigation strategies for toxigenic Alexandrium blooms have also been explored in recent years. Human adaptive actions based on future scenarios of bloom dynamics and shifts in biogeographical distribution under climate-change parameters remain under development and not yet implemented on a regional scale. In the CoCliME (Co-development of climate services for adaptation to changing marine ecosystems) project these issues were addressed with respect to past, current and anticipated future status of key HAB genera and expected benefits of enhanced monitoring. Data on the distribution and frequency of Alexandrium blooms related to paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) events from key CoCliME Case Study areas, comprising the North Sea and adjacent Kattegat-Skagerrak, Norwegian Sea, and Baltic Sea, and eastern North Atlantic marginal seas, were evaluated in a contemporary and historical context over the past several decades. The first evidence of possible biogeographical expansion of Alexandrium taxa into eastern Arctic gateways was provided from DNA barcoding signatures. Various key climate change indicators, such as salinity, temperature, and water-column stratification, relevant to Alexandrium bloom initiation and development were identified. The possible influence of changing variables on bloom dynamics, magnitude, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution were interpreted in the context of regional ocean climate models. These climate change impact indicators may play key roles in selecting for the occurrence and diversity of Alexandrium species within the broader microeukaryote communities. For example, shifts to higher temperature and lower salinity regimes predicted for the southern North Sea indicate the potential for increased Alexandrium blooms, currently absent from this area. Ecological and socioeconomic impacts of Alexandrium blooms and effects on fisheries and aquaculture resources and coastal ecosystem function are evaluated, and, where feasible, effective adaptation strategies are proposed herein as emerging climate services.

Active Nordic Seas deep-water formation during the last glacial maximum

The Nordic Seas are the primary location where the warm waters of the North Atlantic Current densify to form North Atlantic Deep Water, which plays a key part in the modern Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The formation of dense water in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean and resulting ocean circulation changes were probably driven by and contributed to the regional and global climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Here we map the source and degree of mixing of deep water in the Nordic Seas and through the Arctic Gateway (Yermak Plateau) over the past 35 thousand years using neodymium isotopes (εNd) measured on authigenic phases in deep-sea sediments with a high spatial and temporal resolution. We find that a large-scale reorganization of deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas took place between the LGM (23–18 thousand years ago) and the rapid climate shift that accompanied the subsequent deglaciation (18–10 thousand years ago). We show that homogeneous εNd signatures across a wide range of sites support LGM deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas. In contrast, during the deglaciation, disparate and spatially variable εNd values are observed leading to the conclusion that deep-water formation may have been reduced during this time.

Arctic Multiyear Ice Areal Flux and Its Connection with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations in the Winters of 2002–2021

Arctic sea ice, especially the multiyear ice (MYI), is decreasing rapidly, partly due to melting triggered by global warming, in turn partly due to the possible acceleration of ice export from the Arctic Ocean to southern latitudes through identifiable gates. In this study, MYI and total sea ice areal flux through six Arctic gateways over the winters (October–April) of 2002–2021 were estimated using daily sea ice motion and MYI/total sea ice concentration data. Inconsistencies caused by different data sources were considered for the estimate of MYI flux. Results showed that, there is a slight declining trend in the Arctic MYI areal flux over the past two decades, which is attributable to the decrease in MYI concentration. Overall speaking, MYI flux through Fram Strait accounts for ~87% of the Arctic MYI outflow, with an average of ~325.92 × 103 km2 for the winters of 2002–2021. The monthly MYI areal flux through Fram Strait is characterized with a peak in March (~55.56 × 103 km2) and a trough in April (~40.97 × 103 km2), with a major contribution from MYI concentration. The connections between sea ice outflow and large-scale atmospheric circulations such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Dipole Anomaly (DA) were investigated. High correlation coefficients (CCs) were found in winter months such as January and February. While AO and NAO (especially NAO) exhibited generally weak correlations with the MYI/total sea ice flux, DA presented strong correlations with the areal flux, especially for MYI (CC up to 0.90 in January). However, the atmospheric circulation patterns are sometimes not fully characterized by the specific indices, which could have different effects on sea ice flux and its correlation with the atmospheric indices.

Marine mammal hotspots across the circumpolar Arctic

AbstractAimIdentify hotspots and areas of high species richness for Arctic marine mammals.LocationCircumpolar Arctic.MethodsA total of 2115 biologging devices were deployed on marine mammals from 13 species in the Arctic from 2005 to 2019. Getis‐Ord Gi* hotspots were calculated based on the number of individuals in grid cells for each species and for phylogenetic groups (nine pinnipeds, three cetaceans, all species) and areas with high species richness were identified for summer (Jun‐Nov), winter (Dec‐May) and the entire year. Seasonal habitat differences among species’ hotspots were investigated using Principal Component Analysis.ResultsHotspots and areas with high species richness occurred within the Arctic continental‐shelf seas and within the marginal ice zone, particularly in the “Arctic gateways” of the north Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Summer hotspots were generally found further north than winter hotspots, but there were exceptions to this pattern, including bowhead whales in the Greenland‐Barents Seas and species with coastal distributions in Svalbard, Norway and East Greenland. Areas with high species richness generally overlapped high‐density hotspots. Large regional and seasonal differences in habitat features of hotspots were found among species but also within species from different regions. Gap analysis (discrepancy between hotspots and IUCN ranges) identified species and regions where more research is required.Main conclusionsThis study identified important areas (and habitat types) for Arctic marine mammals using available biotelemetry data. The results herein serve as a benchmark to measure future distributional shifts. Expanded monitoring and telemetry studies are needed on Arctic species to understand the impacts of climate change and concomitant ecosystem changes (synergistic effects of multiple stressors). While efforts should be made to fill knowledge gaps, including regional gaps and more complete sex and age coverage, hotspots identified herein can inform management efforts to mitigate the impacts of human activities and ecological changes, including creation of protected areas.

Temporal patterns in the soundscape of a Norwegian gateway to the Arctic

As an Arctic gateway, the Norwegian Sea sustains a rich diversity of seasonal and resident species of soniferous animals, vulnerable to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities. We show the occurrence of seasonal patterns of acoustic signals in a small canyon off Northern Norway, and investigate cetacean vocal behavior, human-made noise, and climatic contributions to underwater sound between January and May 2018. Mostly median sound levels ranged between 68.3 and 96.31 dB re 1 μPa2 across 1/3 octave bands (13 Hz–16 kHz), with peaks in February and March. Frequencies under 2 kHz were dominated by sounds from baleen whales with highest rates of occurrence during winter and early spring. During late-spring non-biological sounds were predominant at higher frequencies that were linked mainly to ship traffic. Seismic pulses were also recorded during spring. We observed a significant effect of wind speed and ship sailing time on received sound levels across multiple distance ranges. Our results provide a new assessment of high-latitude continental soundscapes in the East Atlantic Ocean, useful for management strategies in areas where anthropogenic pressure is increasing. Based on the current status of the local soundscape, we propose considerations for acoustic monitoring to be included in future management plans.

An evaluation of the E3SMv1 Arctic ocean and sea-ice regionally refined model

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a state-of-the-science Earth system model (ESM) with the ability to focus horizontal resolution of its multiple components in specific areas. Regionally refined global ESMs are motivated by the need to explicitly resolve, rather than parameterize, relevant physics within the regions of refined resolution, while offering significant computational cost savings relative to the respective cost of configurations with high-resolution (HR) everywhere on the globe. In this paper, we document results from the first Arctic regionally refined E3SM configuration for the ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-Arctic-OSI), while employing data-based atmosphere, land, and hydrology components. Our aim is an improved representation of the Arctic coupled ocean and sea-ice state, its variability and trends, and the exchanges of mass and property fluxes between the Arctic and the sub-Arctic. We find that E3SM-Arctic-OSI increases the realism of simulated Arctic ocean and sea-ice conditions compared to a similar low-resolution E3SM simulation without the Arctic regional refinement in ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-LR-OSI). In particular, exchanges through the main Arctic gateways are greatly improved with respect to E3SM-LR-OSI. Other aspects, such as the Arctic freshwater content variability and sea-ice trends, are also satisfactorily simulated. Yet, other features, such as the upper-ocean stratification and the sea-ice thickness distribution, need further improvements, involving either more advanced parameterizations, model tuning, or additional grid refinements. Overall, E3SM-Arctic-OSI offers an improved representation of the Arctic system relative to E3SM-LR-OSI, at a fraction (15 %) of the computational cost of comparable global high-resolution configurations, while permitting exchanges with the lower-latitude oceans that cannot be directly accounted for in Arctic regional models.

Multi-decadal environmental change in the Barents Sea recorded by seal teeth.

Multiple environmental forcings, such as warming and changes in ocean circulation and nutrient supply, are affecting the base of Arctic marine ecosystems, with cascading effects on the entire food web through bottom‐up control. Stable nitrogen isotopes (δ15N) can be used to detect and unravel the impact of these forcings on this unique ecosystem, if the many processes that affect the δ15N values are constrained. Combining unique 60‐year records from compound specific δ15N biomarkers on harp seal teeth alongside state‐of‐the‐art ocean modelling, we observed a significant decline in the δ15N values at the base of the Barents Sea food web from 1951 to 2012. This strong and persistent decadal trend emerges due to the combination of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the Atlantic, increased northward transport of Atlantic water through Arctic gateways and local feedbacks from increasing Arctic primary production. Our results suggest that the Arctic ecosystem has been responding to anthropogenically induced local and remote drivers, linked to changing ocean biology, chemistry and physics, for at least 60 years. Accounting for these trends in δ15N values at the base of the food web is essential to accurately detect ecosystem restructuring in this rapidly changing environment.

Decadal trend of plankton community change and habitat shoaling in the Arctic gateway recorded by planktonic foraminifera.

The Fram Strait plays a crucial role in regulating the heat and sea-ice dynamics in the Arctic. In response to the ongoing global warming, the marine biota of this Arctic gateway is experiencing significant changes with increasing advection of Atlantic species. The footprint of this 'Atlantification' has been identified in isolated observations across the plankton community, but a systematic, multi-decadal perspective on how regional climate change facilitates the invasion of Atlantic species and affects the ecology of the resident species is lacking. Here we evaluate a series of 51 depth-resolved plankton profiles collected in the Fram Strait during seven surveys between 1985 and 2015, using planktonic foraminifera as a proxy for changes in both the pelagic community composition and species vertical habitat depth. The time series reveals a progressive shift towards more Atlantic species, occurring independently of changes in local environmental conditions. We conclude that this trend is reflecting higher production of the Atlantic species in the Nordic Seas, from where they are advected into the Fram Strait. At the same time, we observe the ongoing extensive sea-ice export from the Arctic and associated cooling-induced decline in density and habitat shoaling of the subpolar Turborotalita quinqueloba, whereas the resident Neogloboquadrina pachyderma persists. As a result, the planktonic foraminiferal community and vertical structure in the Fram Strait shift to a new state, driven by both remote forcing of the Atlantic invaders and local climatic changes acting on the resident species. The strong summer export of Arctic sea ice has so far buffered larger plankton transformation. We predict that if the sea-ice export will decrease, the Arctic gateway will experience rapid restructuring of the pelagic community, even in the absence of further warming. Such a large change in the gateway region will likely propagate into the Arctic proper.

A Satellite‐Based Lagrangian Perspective on Atlantic Water Fractionation Between Arctic Gateways

AbstractWarm Atlantic Water reaches the Arctic Ocean via two gateways: the Barents Sea Opening (BSO) and Fram Strait. Here, we study the near‐surface flow of the Atlantic Water in the Nordic Seas and its fractionation between these Arctic gateways, using simulated Lagrangian trajectories based on satellite altimetry for 1994–2018. Lagrangian particles are released in the eastern Nordic Seas, where Atlantic Water flows poleward in two current cores: an inner branch along the Norwegian Continental Slope and an outer sea ward branch. The trajectories toward Fram Strait and the BSO are, in an averaged sense, largely steered by the bottom topography, and on inter‐annual timescales we find an anticorrelation in the number of particles that reach the two gateways. Most of the particles released in the inner branch enter the Barents Sea and most of the particles seeded in the outer branch reach Fram Strait. However, there is a significant cross‐over of particles from the outer to the inner branch in the Lofoten Basin, and nearly half of the total number of particles entering the BSO originate in the outer branch. This cross‐over is accomplished solely by the time‐fluctuating part of the velocity field, and it becomes stronger when the eddy kinetic energy in the Lofoten Basin is anomalously high. Thus, the outer branch may, via processes in the Lofoten Basin, be important for Barents Sea climate variability.

Possible future scenarios for two major Arctic Gateways connecting Subarctic and Arctic marine systems: I. Climate and physical–chemical oceanography

AbstractWe review recent trends and projected future physical and chemical changes under climate change in transition zones between Arctic and Subarctic regions with a focus on the two major inflow gateways to the Arctic, one in the Pacific (i.e. Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and the Chukchi Sea) and the other in the Atlantic (i.e. Fram Strait and the Barents Sea). Sea-ice coverage in the gateways has been disappearing during the last few decades. Projected higher air and sea temperatures in these gateways in the future will further reduce sea ice, and cause its later formation and earlier retreat. An intensification of the hydrological cycle will result in less snow, more rain, and increased river runoff. Ocean temperatures are projected to increase, leading to higher heat fluxes through the gateways. Increased upwelling at the Arctic continental shelf is expected as sea ice retreats. The pH of the water will decline as more atmospheric CO2 is absorbed. Long-term surface nutrient levels in the gateways will likely decrease due to increased stratification and reduced vertical mixing. Some effects of these environmental changes on humans in Arctic coastal communities are also presented.