Arctic Economy Research Articles

Экономическая динамика и эколого-экономическая устойчивость арктических регионов России

This paper explores the environmental and economic resilience of the regions within the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). We define a region's environmental and economic resilience as its capacity to withstand external shocks, independently restore the balance between its economy and environment, and transform while maintaining or improving the balance between its environmental and economic systems. The study's relevance stems from the rapid industrialization of the Russian Arctic in recent years and the constraints on investment in environmental technologies, green production, and management. The study discusses an analysis of macroeconomic, environmental, and economic indicators of the Russian Arctic regions, examining their interrelations during the pandemic crisis and under the pressure of Western sanctions. From 2018 to 2022, the anthropogenic impact on the environment in the Russian Arctic gradually declined, although the situation varied for individual indicators depending on trends in the regional sectors. Regions were identified that lead in environmental and economic resilience as well as those showing increased anthropogenic impact despite declining industrial production. A multidimensional classification of regions in the Russian Arctic was developed based on indicators characterizing the state of the environmental and economic spheres. Clusters of regions with high, low, and limited levels of environmental and economic resilience were identified. The study revealed that the macroeconomic situation in these regions is more dynamic than their environmental and economic conditions. Macroeconomic indicators in the Arctic regions demonstrate different trends during periods of external shocks. Overall, the Russian Arctic economy was sensitive to the 2020 crisis; the 2022 sanctions had a negative impact on economies focused on Western markets, and in 2023, macroeconomic dynamics slowed down across all regions of the Russian Arctic. Further research is necessary to understand the factors influencing the environmental and economic resilience of the Russian Arctic regions under current conditions.

Производительность труда в российской Арктике: структурная динамика и регионально-отраслевые тенденции

Labor productivity is a key indicator of economic development and public well-being. This study assesses the structural shifts, regional dynamics, and sectoral trends in the domain of labor productivity in the Russian Arctic from 2011 to 2021, identifying aggregated economic sectors. The findings reveal that labor productivity levels in the Russian Arctic exceed the national average, primarily due to the resource-based nature of regional economies. However, a major issue is the persistently high level of interregional differentiation in labor productivity within the Arctic. The study demonstrates that an initially high level of labor productivity does not necessarily ensure long-term growth. An analysis of structural shifts in labor productivity over the past decade indicates a shift towards the market sector of the Arctic economy, evidenced by an increased share in gross regional product (GRP) and a decrease in time worked. Within the market sector, several trends are observed: the leading role of the extractive industry is maintained due to its expanding share in GRP; the role of agriculture is growing, reflected in a decreased share of hours worked; and the importance of other market sector branches, particularly transport, communication, and electric power, is diminishing as their share of total hours worked increases. The observed decline in labor productivity within the non-market sector suggests the potential for negative social consequences for the Arctic population. An analysis of labor productivity growth rates indicates that the leading sectors in terms of growth are mining, finance and business services, construction, and trade. These sectors can be considered sources of economic growth in the Arctic. Interregional differences in labor productivity growth rates within the same sector of the Arctic economy suggest the influence of regional factors, highlighting the potential for discovering unique reserves of productivity growth in each region.

Потенциал и возможности освоения угольных запасов арктической части Красноярского края

This study focuses on the development of coal deposits in the western part of the Russian Arctic. Historically, the Arctic economy has relied on its mineral resources. Advancements in science and technology related to Arctic resource development have facilitated production in previously inaccessible and remote territories of the Russian Arctic, including areas on the Arctic shelf. Much of this progress can be attributed to the proactive strategic policies of the government and collaboration with Western partners. However, the current geopolitical landscape has introduced challenges to the implementation of many Arctic projects. New economic trends, including shifts in market orientation and technical obstacles, necessitate the adaptation of Arctic resource projects to the prevailing conditions. Coal projects, especially those aimed at export, are particularly susceptible to these challenges, as highlighted in this study. Therefore, the goal of the study was to identify the key processes associated with the implementation of new coal projects at the present stage. Geographically, the study encompasses the western part of the Russian Arctic, focusing on coal projects potentially interconnected with the development of the Northern Sea Route and its infrastructure. The paper offers an overview of the status of coal deposits in this Arctic region, examining the interplay between regulatory frameworks governing Arctic coal projects, and the consequences and risks of developing the new Syradasai deposit, located in the Arctic part of the Krasnoyarsk region.

Assessment of the demographic potential of municipalities of the Arctic zone of Yakutia

The prospects for the development of Arctic regions are of great interest today for the entire scientific community, in view of the strategic status of these territories. The implementation of large resource projects is impossible without preserving and developing its demographic potential. This article discusses issues related to the state and development of the demographic potential of the Arctic regions of Yakutia. The role of natural growth and migration in the formation of the population of the Arctic regions was revealed. Understanding the reasons for the outflow of the population will allow in the future to form a modern regional policy regarding the spatial development of the Arctic regions of Yakutia. The subject of the study is the demographic potential of the Yan group of districts. Interest in the group of regions under consideration is caused by a historically formed territorial production complex for the extraction of ore minerals (primarily tin and gold), as well as promising plans for the development of new deposits. The creation of energy (PATES) and transport infrastructure (Yana road, Nizhneyansk and Ust7Kuiga ports) allows us to assess the regions of the Yan group as a single promising zone for the growth of the republic’s Arctic economy. Due to the above circumstances, it becomes necessary to assess its demographic potential. The materials for the study were the official data of the territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), presented in annual statistical collections.

The Game Effect: Comparison of Game and Nongame Learning Environments Using the Example of “Arctic Economy”

Virtual environments open up far-reaching possibilities with respect to knowledge impartation. Nevertheless, they have the potential to negatively influence learning behaviour. As a possible positive determinant, especially in the digital context, the moment“game” can be listed. Accordingly, previous studies prove an overall positive influence of <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">serious games</i> on learning success and motivation. However, the current state of research only allows for careful and few conclusions in terms of a nuanced differentiation of this influence. Thus, this study differentiates on a deeper level with regard to different parameters of learning success and motivation. The aim of the study is to quantify and evaluate a possible influence of the factor “game” with regard to these parameters. Two versions of the modular software environment <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Arctic Economy</i> , a game and a non-game version, served as the basis for evaluation. Both versions were compared in a field experiment, with randomized group formation (N=97) and repeated measures. The data analysis showed the game group having a tendency to demonstrate better learning performance. In the differentiated analysis, a significant effect can be proven: Subjects in the game group were able to remember facts more easily than subjects in the non-game group (group difference retention rate <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\overline{x}{=}$</tex-math></inline-formula> 17%). In addition, participants showed an average of 46 capable of linking the application's content with reality. The identified “game effect” can therefore be classified as highly significant in the context of this study.

Перспективное освоение угольных запасов Арктики на основе пространственной организации коммуникаций

In the current conditions of economic instability, the problem of developing the regional space of the Arctic zone, where huge reserves of hydrocarbons and other minerals are concentrated, which are the main driver of the future development of the Arctic economy, is becoming increasingly important. The development of the Arctic region was strongly influenced by the international environment, which, on the one hand, poses a threat to the Arctic mineral projects, and on the other hand, opens up new opportunities for their successful implementation. Against this background, the task of the Arctic coal industry within the framework of spatial and regional development is the territorial and production optimization of production and transportation of coal products. The purpose of the study is to analyze current trends in the development of the coal mining market in the new geo-economic and political conditions, which results in the proposed approaches to the spatial organization of the transport communications system, allowing maximizing the economic and export potential of the prospective development of Arctic coal reserves. It has been established that the current situation greatly affects the energy market. Russian coal market is being transformed under the influence of geo-economic transformations, the formation of new coal mining centers is shifting eastwards closer to the Asia-Pacific region, which will become the main center of coal trade in the near future. The study concludes that the efficiency of the development of Arctic coal reserves directly depends on the spatial organization of a complex system of integrated production and transport corridors (IPTC) that combine the production and logistics chain of mining and transportation of coal products into a single holistically integrated space of sea, coastal and land communications. On the basis of the analysis of the Taimyr coal basin, a priority level for the prospective development of mineral resources has been determined, based on a combination of factors that condition the economic and export potential of coal deposits.

МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ОСНОВЫ СОЗДАНИЯ ЦИФРОВОГО ДВОЙНИКА АРКТИЧЕСКОЙ ЗОНЫ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

A decisive role in the Development Strategy of the Russian Arctic 2035 is given to integration processes which involve the formation of scientific foundations and the use of digital technologies to manage the economy of the regions of the Russian Arctic. The feasibility of developing this topic is determined by the requirements of strengthening interregional integration in the management of the Russian Arctic economy, which should ensure the creation of a new configuration of interactions through the introduction of uniform management standards. The formation of a single economic space on the territory of the Arctic zone is a key factor for fulfilling the tasks of achieving the development goals of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.

Кластерный анализ арктических поселений Якутии с позиции концепции резильентности

Shifting the focus from the anti-crisis agenda to the tasks of contributing to the achievement of national goals in the Arctic requires the development of new approaches to the implementation of state policy in these territories of the Russian Federation, taking into account modern trends: reconfiguring relations with the vector to the East and reorienting to the development of anchor settlements as geostrategic points of Russia. In modern realities, priorities have been set – the development of the Northern Sea Route and mineral resource centers, the im-plementation of economic and infrastructure projects, and the creation of a new Arctic economy. New ap-proaches are also required to “fine-tune” the tools to increase/ensure the sustainability of the economic sys-tems of strategically important Arctic regions. In this regard, an assessment of the socio-economic develop-ment of the municipal districts of the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) using cluster analysis is given. In the article it is considered by the authors as an effective tool of “pre-planning” and one of the tools for selecting potential candidate settlements for inclusion in the list of strategic territories of the Arctic, which is es-pecially relevant in the light of the forthcoming development by the executive authorities of master plans for the development of reference settlements of the Arctic zone of Russia and comprehensive plans for socio-economic development until 2035.

Resetting Processes for Economic Development in the Arctic

JUSTNORTH is an EU-funded Climate Action Project . Dr Corine Wood-Donnelly explains the project’s broad stakeholder engagement, which helps to resolve critical issues in developing Arctic economies.

Стратегирование потенциала развития Арктических регионов с целью реализации политики импортонезависимости

The current sanctions, pandemic, and geopolitical situation demand new strategies and models of territorial sustainable development. The article considers the theoretical and methodological aspects of the innovative and industrial potential of the Russian Arctic as part of the ongoing import phase-out. The development potential of this macroterritory depends on the implementation of its human, infrastructural, financial, and industrial potentials. The author developed a five-stage algorithm of balanced indicators that assess the industrial and innovative potential of a region and applied it to the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation. The regions that revealed a below-average potential were tested for bottlenecks and acquired a sevenfold strategy for sustainable development. The research facilitates the assessment, decision-making, strategizing, strategy implementation, and road-mapping of the Arctic economy. Territorial management based on high-performance decision support systems is able to improve the economic activity of the Russian Arctic, boost its macroeconomic indicators, and increase the local social standards.

МЕЖРЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЕ КЛАСТЕРЫ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ АРКТИЧЕСКИХ РЕГИОНОВ РОССИИ

The article examines the studies of creating the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation development strategy as a structural element of the national economy and a unique object in the management system of national economic enterprise, which designed along with solving the problem of further exploration of hydrocarbon resources to implement projects related to the using of modern methods of forming organizational management structures. One of these methods is the creation of clusters with operating conditions are determined by the presence of the largest oil and gas companies in the industrial sector. In this regard, the paper analyzes the possibilities of integrating regional strategies based on the creation of interregional clusters as a structure that is most conducive to strengthening the process of integrating regions’ economies that are part of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The advantage of such an organizational structure is that it allows to quickly respond to changes in the competitive environment and evaluate the results for functioning of the Russian Arctic economy as a whole with taking into account problems of each specific region.

Spatial organization of the arctic economy in conditions of modern challenges of neo-industrial development

Spatial organization of the arctic economy in conditions of modern challenges of neo-industrial development

Recruitment needs of the Russian Arctic economy: Future outlook

The article presents the results of a large­scale study devoted to the formation of forecast indicators of recruitment needs of the Russian Arctic economy as the most important geostrategic territory of the country. Information about them is presented in regional, industry and professional terms. The basic and additional sources to ensure these needs of the Russian Arctic economy have been identified. It is concluded that there is a serious shortage of the internal labor resources of the Arctic territories, hence the need to attract additional labor force, including for the implementation of investment projects. It is shown that the current situation in the system of training qualified specialists in the Arctic territories contradicts the long­term plans for the Russian Arctic development. In the context of the implementation of the state’s new Arctic strategy, the importance of building a well­thought­out state policy for staffing the Arctic territories, development of human capital sectors, and diversification of the Arctic economy is noted.

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Russian Arctic Economy (including the Energy Industry)

Ongoing climate change most pronounces itself in northern latitudes, including in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). Climate change is a complex multidirectional process that is characterized by both positive and negative effects on the functioning of territorial economic systems. In this regard, an analysis of the impacts of climate change on economic development is a particularly urgent scientific and practical task that requires comprehensive study. This research was devoted to assessing the probable impacts of climate transformations on the parameters of the economic development of the AZRF regions. The authors created a methodological approach to the assessment of the costs of the effects of climate change for the economy of the AZRF regions, taking into account the average predicted dynamics of surface air temperature and key regional economic specializations, as well as the degree of susceptibility of various industries to the climate change. The energy industry was considered in particular detail since it is the basis for all of the other industries and is the guarantor of life support for the populations that live in the extreme Arctic climate. Calculations have shown that the accumulated economic effects of climate change as a whole for the AZRF economy during the period 2020–2050 will be negative and have been estimated as having a cost of more than RUB 8 trillion (or nearly USD 111 billion in 2020 prices), which would be about 3% of total Russian Arctic GRP in average annual terms.

Влияние пандемии СOVID-19 на рынки труда арктических территорий циркумполярных стран.

The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened human safety and well-being, has outlined new requirements for the functioning of sectors of the economy and social sphere that directly determine the conditions of life, and has required timely comprehension of the COVID-19 pandemic consequences as part of updating the measures of social and economic support. Assessing the impact of the current crisis situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor markets of circumpolar countries was the purpose of this study. The objectives of the study included an analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economies of circumpolar countries, an analysis of governmental measures to mitigate the socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, an analysis of employment and unemployment rates in 2019–2020, and a rationale for the role of government in reducing social tensions in Arctic labor markets. The labor markets of regions whose territories are fully attributed to the Russian Arctic, as well as labor markets of the Arctic territories of Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland and Sweden were the object of this study. As a result of the study, it was determined that the greatest decline was observed in consumer demand-oriented sectors of the economy. It has been revealed that the labor markets have been negatively affected by the decline in the number of small and medium-sized businesses and individual entrepreneurs. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by a special assessment of the cumulative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and governmental measures to limit its spread on employment and unemployment indicators that identify trends in Arctic labor markets. The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that its main conclusions are aimed at updating the measures of employment regulation in the labor markets of the Russian Arctic. The prospects for further research are determined by the long-term nature of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for the Arctic economies and the formation of appropriate proposals and recommendations for adapting labor markets in the Russian Arctic to the emerging situation.

An Indigenous Anthropocene: Subsistence Colonization and Ecological Imperialism in the Soviet Arctic in the 1920s and Early 1930s

Abstract This article examines the role of Indigenous practices in the development of the Soviet Arctic in the 1920s and 1930s. In the 1920s the Committee of the North and the State Planning Committee (Gosplan) believed that the development of the natural resources of the far north was feasible only with the help of the Indigenous population. They saw Indigenous peoples who were able to benefit from the north, despite its harsh environmental conditions, as guides for Soviet technocrats. Ethnographers and researchers of the north formed a discourse concerning the subsistence (promyslovaia) colonization of the Arctic, which would involve the rationalization of traditional economic sectors, such as reindeer herding, fishing, and hunting. During the Great Break of the late 1920s and early 1930s, the Committee of the North planned an extensive expansion of subsistence colonization to the undeveloped territories of the far north. Its attitude united with the practices of ecological imperialism when agriculture began to be introduced into northern territories. Traditional economic activities became part of industrial agriculture. The construction of state farms (sovkhozy) oriented toward reindeer herding and hunting aimed to implement this ecological imperialism. However, subsistence colonization suffered a crushing defeat during a reorganization of the Arctic economy in the mid-1930s. Indigenous peoples of the north and their traditional economic activities became superfluous in the development paradigm pursued by Soviet technocrats.

Assessment of the Production Potential of the Arctic Mining Sector

It is defined that the development of the world economic system in modern conditions is largely determined by the consumption of natural and, first of all, mineral resources. The process of exploiting Arctic mineral resources is complicated by specific features associated with taking into account climatic features, increased costs and conditions of economic activity. It is shown that in recent years experts showed increased interest in assessing industrial potential which is determined by the need to increase the pace of territorial innovation and industrial development. In this regard the aim of the work is to assess the production potential of the mining sector of the Arctic economy which determines the possibilities of using the entire set of resources for effective growth. The performed analysis of the production potential of the Arctic mining sector showed significant differences in the functioning of industrial enterprises in the Arctic regions. It is determined that the Arctic regions are characterized by raw materials specialization. The extraction and processing of minerals in the Arctic regions accounts for more than 50% of the added value and about 60% of tax revenues to the budgetary system of the Russian Federation.It is concluded that the most significant production potential of the Arctic mining sector is typical for the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the minimum - for the Murmansk Region and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. It is shown that in terms of production potential the Arctic regions are ahead of the average Russian values but at the same time they are characterized by a low level of innovation activity.To increase the production potential of the Arctic mining sector it is necessary to conduct scientific research in the direction of ensuring the competitiveness of industry sectors and greening production primarily through the development and implementation of modern innovation technologies.

The Northern Sea Route in the national strategic planning system

Subject. This article analyzes the system of State strategic management and planning against the background of significant changes in the external macroenvironment – political, economic, and social, as well as changes in the spatial organization of the Russian economy with a focus on the Arctic region. Objectives. The article aims to determine the relationship between the national strategic planning documents that determine the long-term development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), and analyze the possibilities of developing Arctic oil and gas reserves, which largely depend on the creation of a system of sea communications. Methods. The study is based on a general-research approach. Systematized legislative and regulatory acts of the Russian Federation regulating the issues of State strategic planning were an information base. Results. Based on the analysis and systematization of the regulatory strategic documents of the Russian Federation for 2014–2020 related to the development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and the Northern Sea Route, the article defines the NSR’s role in changing the spatial organization of the country's economy and shows its strategic importance for the economic security of Russia. Conclusions. In the current system of strategic planning, the Northern Sea Route is actually the core of the Arctic economy of Russia. There are new opportunities for developing entrepreneurship and improving the socio-economic situation of the Arctic areas.

Technological Windows of Opportunity for Russian Arctic Regions: Modeling and Exploitation Prospects

The problems of exploitation of technological windows of opportunity are of particular scientific and practical interest in terms of the development of Russia’s national economy, and the Arctic region, which has a strong mineral and raw materials potential, is important in terms of its use for achieving the technological and national security of the Russian state. Considering this, the study of the theoretical and methodical aspects of the development of emerging technological windows of opportunity is important and relevant for the regions of the Russian Arctic zone. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential and reserves for exploitation of the emerging technological windows of opportunity during the deployment of a new technological order by mobilizing material and human capital in the Arctic regions. Methodological tools for the study of this problem included dynamic series analysis, structural analysis, comparison, description, descriptive statistics, cross-correlation analysis, production function model and its visualization. An analytical review of scientific publications, a set of tools and methods of research, allowed to obtain the following scientific results: A significant variability in the contribution of science-intensive and high-tech industry to the formation of gross value added in the Arctic region has been revealed; meanwhile, we can note stable dynamics of the contribution of the Arctic economy to the gross domestic product (GRP) of Russia as a whole. There is a steady excess of the productivity index over the Russian average, which can be regarded as a potential for growth of high-tech components of labor in the development of the economy of the Arctic region. There is a negative statistically significant relationship between the share of the gross regional product of the Arctic in the Russian GRP and the share of gross value added (GVA) of science-intensive products in the Arctic GRP, which can be regarded as a factor preventing the exploitation of the emerging technological windows of opportunity. The construction of a model of production function of technological windows of opportunities for the Arctic zone of Russia pointed to the presence of potential in the exploitation of emerging technological windows in the Arctic zone of Russia in the development of human capital through the activation and use of high labor productivity, creating high-performance jobs. The results of the study, its findings and its proposals can be used in the development, monitoring and implementation of state federal and regional programs and projects aimed at improving the level of technology and science intensity of production in the Arctic zone, improving its competitiveness, which is highly important for the national economy.

Indigenous economies in the Arctic

There is a growing global interest in Arctic natural resources that have a strong influence on the local economies. The Arctic economy is a rather unique phenomenon encompassing Indigenous practices, local economic activities, and industrial development. Indigenous economies vary across the Arctic states and exhibit divergent economic mixtures. In globalizing societies and full market economies, traditional Indigenous economies are changing and perceived especially by the non-Indigenous to be a tribute to old customs rather than a way of life that is being followed by the young generation. However, certain groups of the contemporary Indigenous populations in the Arctic continue to preserve their culture and ensure the continuation of Indigenous ways of life. The development of Indigenous communities is closely linked to their economic well-being, on the one hand, and to their culture and traditions, on the other. Our article contributes to the discussion on the significance of Indigenous economies in providing sustainability in terms of Indigenous communities, their culture, and traditions. The research objective is to identify strategies and tools that sustain Indigenous economies as well as the goals of various stakeholders in encouraging and supporting the traditional economic activities of Indigenous peoples. We contrast three countries—Russia, Finland, and the United States (Alaska)—and discuss some governmental strategies that can be employed for preserving unique Indigenous economies. The research methods consist of a content analysis of state and regional legislation and strategies, social studies of stakeholders’ opinions, case studies describing market infrastructure, and economic activities as well as features of traditional lifestyles and Indigenous knowledge typical of these regions.