Arc Of Instability Research Articles

Social representations of the Arab youth: Factors and trends of regional development

The article examines the situation in the Middle East and North Africa region (the so-called Afrasian arc of instability) in the context of the social representations of the local youth. Based on the empirical study conducted with the authors method, the authors assess the youths ideas about the most important factors for the effective social-political development of the region. The research methodology is based on the analysis of 12 trends that determine the regional development in the Arab East. The study allowed to assess the social-political potential of the Arab youth as a specific and influential demographic group ready to contribute to the development agenda for the Arab East. The authors identify the Arab youths social preferences regarding the main development trends in the region; show that in the political struggle, young people do not act alone, their aspirations are closely intertwined with national goals; prove that there is an active search for ways out of the economic crisis, for strengthening national sovereignty and ensuring peace and security. All these problems have become urgent in recent years in the Middle East region for a number of its countries strives to solve difficult problems of overcoming the destructive impact of the Arab Spring. The article presents the youth priority requests such as demands for the quality legal relations, developing national idea, and ensuring national security by strengthening military force and possessing weapons of restraint. One of the basic preferences of the Arab youth is preserving sovereignty, reducing external influences and creating a strong alliance of the Middle Eastern states. Rapprochement with leading world powers and regional associations (named as West, East and Russia) seems to be on the periphery of the Arab youth interests.

Climate change, health, and conflict in Africa's arc of instability.

Climate change, health, and conflict in Africa's arc of instability.

The Eurasian Arc of Instability and New Challenges to Russia

The Eurasian Arc of Instability and New Challenges to Russia

CSTO Model Lawmaking as a Response to Challenges and Threats from the Eurasian Arc of Instability

CSTO Model Lawmaking as a Response to Challenges and Threats from the Eurasian Arc of Instability

МЕЗОРЕГИОН ПРИКАСПИЯ: КУЛЬТУРНЫЕ КОДЫ И ТРАНСПОРТНЫЕ КОЛЬЦА

The fundamental instability of the global world, associated with the technological limitation as a marker of globalization, precedes the crisis. Mankind is currently facing a succession of crises, in which the Covid-19 pandemic being only an outward representation, a media "face". The crisis of globalization can follow two paths: First, a transformation through chaos, a "savannah world", "grey zones" where no laws except the law of force apply. Second, transformation through the creation of macro-regions. Both options imply a high risk of military conflicts throughout the space of globalization and, above all, in Southeast Asia, which will lead to an arc of instability affecting Russian interests. The key area determining the behavior of the arc of instability is the Caspian Sea region. At present, of the four possible versions of the post-global world (as of 2015: infrastructure colonialism, cosmocolonialism, ecological capitalism, macro-regionalization) two remain. Ecological capitalism has been transformed into inclusive capitalism, and macro-regionalisation turned out to be the only alternative to the initiative of K. Schwab. Currently, the macro-region is understood in three senses - geopolitical, geographical and administrative. Geographically linked 'blocks', which are the basis of geoplanetary macro-regions, can be called meso-regions. The article considers six versions of the Caspian Sea mesoregionalization: "Transcaucasia", "Anatolia", SENTO, "Pre-Caspian", "Iranian-speaking Oikumene" and "Pyatimorye". It is stated that only the strategically grounded inertial "Anatolian mesoregion" scenario and the geographically grounded realistic "Pre-Caspian" scenario have a notable probability of implementation. Of these, only the second meets Russia's interests. The military, political and economic alliance between Russia and Iran could become the core of such a region. The Caspian Sea mesoregion is economically and logistically based on the meridional North- South transport corridor. It is shown that this corridor should be connected not only to the latitudinal routes, but also to the ring infrastructure, uniting the Transcaucasus in a single whole. hus, the transition from the necessary conditions for the formation of a mesoregion (geographical connectivity, broadly understood security, common interests) to sufficient conditions is carried out. These sufficient conditions include the transition from geographical connectivity to infrastructural and economic connectivity, the creation of a "ring economy" and a "ring identity". However, in addition to transport and economic connectivity and overall military and political security, the core of a mesoregion should also have a high level of social and socio-ethnic cohesion and a common goal setting, which would allow it to be stable against external cultural and semantic manipulation. In other words, one of the sufficient conditions for the existence of a mesoregion is the unity or, at least, the compatibility of the cultural codes of the ethnic groups comprising the region. The article gives a definition of the cultural code and a sketchy way of its calculation, briefly describes the cultural codes of the Caspian countries and draws a conclusion about their compatibility and the possibility of constructing a common cultural code of the region around the interaction of Russian and Persian/Iranian cultures. Such a cultural code can be transmitted through a geoplanetary educational canon.

ЄМЕНСЬКИЙ КОНФЛІКТ В РАМКАХ «ХОЛОДНОЇ ВІЙНИ» НА БЛИЗЬКОМУ СХОДІ: ГЕОПОЛІТИЧНИЙ АСПЕКТ

Розглянуто проблему конфлікту в Ємені, як елемента проксі-війни між Саудівською Аравією та Іраном. В результаті чинників різного характеру, звичайне релігійне протистояння двох великих конфесій ісламу, переросло в регіональний конфлікт, в якому замішані інтереси множин держав-лідерів. Наведено хронологію подій переростання конфесійного внутрішнього конфлікту в регіональний. Проаналізовано зацікавленість і таємна роль в конфлікті Саудівської Аравії, США, Ірану, Об'єднаних Арабських Еміратів, а також Ізраїлю. Встановлено, що Ємен сьогодні став майданчиком для розширення впливу не тільки для Ірану і Саудівської Аравії, а й для інших передових держав за рахунок важливих судноплавних маршрутів. Зроблено спробу вивчення зв'язку між подіями і гравцями в регіоні з використанням теорії ігор.

VI. Netherlands Defence and Security Policy: Coping with the ‘New Normal’?

Life for European defence planners has, regrettably, become relatively straightforward since 2014. From 1990 to 2014, security and defence policy development in the Netherlands – informed by both a transatlantic and European mind-set – tended to closely follow NATO and EU thinking. Future risks to European interests, and Dutch interests, were associated with the arc of instability: that would be the future operational environment for which the Dutch military needed to prepare. The main focus of Dutch security and defence policy up to 2014 was the promotion of the rule of international law and the deployment of the armed forces in peacekeeping and peace-enforcement operations around the world. Internal debates ensued within the Ministry of Defence leadership about spending priorities. The Ministry of Defence is forced to limit its ambitions to restore the combat readiness of units, their personal equipment, combat-support capabilities, and weapon systems, all of which have suffered from years of intense deployments and increased wear and tear.

THE CURRENT STATE OF THE EURASIAN ARC OF INSTABILITY: THE SPHERES OF INFLUENCE AND THE SHIFT OF INSTABILITY FROM THE WESTERN TO THE EASTERN FLANK

Abstract. This article focuses on the general analysis of the present situation along the Eurasian Arc of Instability, as well as comparison of geopolitical processes simultaneously going on its western and eastern flanks. Currently, the Eurasian Arc of Instability for the first time in the history stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean and has numerous offshoots, which like the tentacles entangle countries and regions trapped in its sphere of influence, plunging them into the abyss of a long-term controlled destabilization. The fundamental geopolitical contradictions between the global and regional actors in Eurasia provide a permanent upgrade of this “Bickford fuse” and its “burning” in the direction from west to east.

The South Pacific: ‘arc of instability’ or ‘arc of opportunity’?

The term ‘arc of instability’ was first used in 1999 to describe the security challenges facing the South Pacific. It subsequently came to dominate Australian political discourse, although its veracity was critiqued. This article considers how Australia's political discourse about the region has evolved since 1999 and what impact this has had on Australia's relationships in the region. It begins by outlining why the arc of instability characterization emerged and how it contributed to the securitization of the South Pacific, which justified Australia's policy of new interventionism in the region. It concludes by considering whether it might be time to recharacterize the region as an ‘arc of opportunity’. This recharacterization may shift the political discourse to focus on the South Pacific's potential and opportunities, desecuritize Australia's relationship with the region and diffuse concerns about continued Australian intervention by articulating a more cooperative approach.

Peace and war journalism in the New Zealand media: Reporting on ‘the arc of instability’ in the Pacific

The Fourth Estate role of the media in a democracy is to inform its citizens and to be a forum for debate about political issues so that the citizenry is able to make informed decisions about the role its government plays. New Zealand portrays itself as a leading democracy in the Pacific, but how much do New Zealanders know about what is happening among the country’s neighbours? This article is an exploratory study on media coverage of four countries in Melanesia which have experienced conflict to assess the degree to which a peace/conflict journalism approach as opposed to a war/violence journalism approach is used. A content analysis of Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report programme was conducted between June and July 2012 to assess the reporting on the four Melanesian countries: Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. According to Pilger (2011) war journalism is reporting on what those in power say they do, whereas peace journalism is what those in power actually do. Lynch and McGoldrick (2005) state that peace journalism ‘is when editors and reporters make choices—of what stories to report and how to report them—that create opportunities for society at large to consider and value non-violent responses to conflict’ (p. 5). The framing of New Zealand media reporting as either war journalism or peace journalism will be an indication of how information about conflict in Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu is presented to a New Zealand audience.

Building future sustainability and democratic practices: The role of adult education in post-conflict communities

This paper documents and analyses a range of literature and policy statements that identifies issues and looks at the role which adult education plays in building communities and peace in post-conflict states. This paper explores and documents these developments in countries in close proximity to Australia which have been viewed by the former Australian government as constituting an ‘arc of instability’. This is a term which will be critically discussed in the paper for the way in which it positions the nations of the Pacific and Australia’s foreign policy as well as its aid and development policy. This paper reviews existing orthodox approaches to the region and development and discusses the criticisms that have been levelled at the status quo.

China and the Global Jihad Network

The global jihadist network in Eurasia is growing as terrorism spreads from the Middle East to the geographically broader “arc of instability,” which covers North Africa, West Asia, Central Asia, and South Asia. Influenced by their close ties with global jihadism, the terrorist groups targeting China openly challenge the legitimacy of China's administration in Xinjiang by raising the banners of liberty, freedom, and human rights, while advocating attacks against civilians to arouse worldwide attention. Pressured by the terrorists, some nonviolent Xinjiang separatist groups are becoming increasingly radical in their actions. To address the “three evil” forces of terrorism, separatism, and extremism, Beijing has emphasized economic and social development in western China and pursued a “three-ring” strategy for antiterrorism consisting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China-India-Israel antiterrorism cooperation, and tacit China-U.S.-Pakistan cooperation. The 2010 Shanghai World Expo and its counterterrorism protocols will test the efficacy of this approach.

Enhancing Security in the Pacific Through Regionalism

The Auckland Declaration of the Pacific Islands Forum adopted the following as part of its overarching vision which brought about the Pacific Plan: Leaders believe the Pacific region can, should and will be a region of peace, harmony, security and economic prosperity, so that all of its people can lead free and worthwhile lives. It is interesting to note that at the outset of the formulation of the Pacific Plan, the vision upon which it was drafted encapsulated the Forum Island Countries (FIC) desire for the Pacific to be a region of peace, harmony and security which will lead to economic prosperity and ensure the freedom of all our people. However, far from what the name of the region implies, the Pacific has not been a pacific (meaning peaceful) region and has had a share of its conflicts, constitutional crises, political violence that has even led to some academics such as Reilly to suggest that the Pacific is becoming Africanized particularly due to the conflict and crises experienced in the Melanesian countries of the FIC leading to its labeling as the “Arc of Instability”. Notwithstanding, other academics such as Firth contend that Oceania is not Africa and has its unique challenges, constraints regarding security but there has been general consensus that the security situation in a number of FIC has deteriorated having a negative impact on the general outlook for the region. This paper aims at discussing whether security for the pacific can be enhanced through regionalism. In order to analyze this I will discuss the security issues that has affected the region focusing in particular on the period after 2001; what are some of the regional measures and the regional mechanisms that have been used by the Pacific Island Forum as a response to these security issues; the role of Australia and New Zealand in the implementation of the regional responses; and to determine the effectiveness of these regional responses through analyzing their application in the Solomon Islands crisis and in Fiji post 2006.

The Feasibility of State Government in the Solomon Islands: Its Strengths and Weaknesses

The Solomon Islands has had a long and turbulent history of political volatility. This volatility has been due mainly to the many conflicting interests that are further constrained by the fact that the Solomon Islands is made up of many heterogeneous tribal clans or groups, each with their own interests and each trying to maximize utility in terms of their social, political, and economic aspirations. This inherent friction led to the violence and crises experienced in the Solomon Islands during the 2000 Malaitan Eagles takeover of the government and the subsequent retaliation from the Guadalcanal islanders. Multiple theorists and writers including Reilly (2000) and Henderson and Watson (2005) refer to the Solomon Islands as a failed state and that it is part of the arc of instability which generally covers the Melanesian group inclusive of Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, and Fiji. Whether this holds true or not is open to interpretation, however, the volatility and turbulent political experiences shared amongst these countries points to the special characteristics of their colonial past and further back to pre-modern times in the very formation of their societies and cultures.In response to the political crises in the Solomon Islands, there has been an intervention by the Pacific Islands Forum countries invoking the Biketawa Declaration that resulted in the deployment of the Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI), spearheaded by the Australian Government. This assistance mission is still actively deployed to date and the results of which remain unclear in terms of the political and economic stability that it hopes to provide.Coupled with the response to the Solomon Islands crisis by the RAMSI and targeted aid programs by UNDP, AUSAID and other international aid donors has been the notion that economic development, political reforms and better delivery of public and essential services will aid the return of the Solomon Islands to a viable State. One of the main political reforms is the call for state governments to be implemented in the Solomon Islands as a better system of governance and delivering public goods and targeted development to the people. This paper will focus on the feasibility of having a federal system requiring state government and analyze the strengths and weaknesses of such a federal system of multi-level governance in the context of the Solomon Islands. In order to ease the burden of analysis, the paper will cover the following thematic scope:1. Theoretical aspects of Multi-level governance, federalism and devolution.2. The Feasibility of a federal system of state government in the Solomon Islands.a. Background and History of the Solomon Islandsb. The Political Crises of 2000c. State Government as a response to fragmented interests and multi-centrismd. Strengths and weaknesses of the call for State/Provincial governmentse. Feasibility of State governments3. Conclusion

Synopsis of the Africanization of the South Pacific Thesis: Is the Africanization Thesis a True Diagnosis of Instability in Melanesia

Ben Reilly (2000) states in his article titled “The Africanization of the South Pacific” in the Australian Journal of International Affairs that these are troubling times for Democracy in the South Pacific. In the last 3 decades the Pacific has seen a growing trend of political uncertainty and instability that has resulted in armed conflict and in political violence (Henderson and Watson, 2005). Of particular interest is the fact that the majority of the instability and uncertainty has been occurring within Melanesia.Henderson and Watson (2005) have used the term “Arc of Instability” to describe the aforementioned Melanesian States and this is reflective of the level of political instability and uncertainty that these States have experienced.This paper looks at the main arguments proffered by Reilly in his Africanization of the South Pacific Thesis and aims to focus the discussion in the light of whether it is a true and proper diagnosis of what has been manifested in the South Pacific Region. For ease of analysis, I will concentrate on the Melanesian States in particularly Fiji and the Solomon Islands to determine the extent of the relativity of Reilly’s Thesis.

Diversity reportage in Aotearoa: Demographics and the rise of the ethnic media

For more than two decades, diversity has been a growing mantra for the New Zealand news media. Initially, the concept of biculturalism—partnership with the indigenous tangata whenua—was pre-eminent in the debate, but as the nation’s Pasifika and ethnic media have flourished and matured and demographics have rapidly changed, multiculturalism has become increasingly important and challenging. The regional media relationship in the context of contested notions such as the ‘arc of instability’ and the impact of coups and crises on journalists has become critical. Projected demographics by Statistics New Zealand indicate that the country’s Asian population will almost double by 2026. The Pasifika and Māori populations are also expected to grow by 59 and 29 per cent respectively. Māori, Pasifika and ethnic media in Aotearoa/New Zealand are also steadily expanding with implications for the media industry and journalism educators. This article examines the regional trends and how initiatives such as the Pacific Media Centre and new journalism courses with an emphasis on diversity are addressing the challenges.

Constituting Vanuatu: Societal, Legal and Local Perspectives

Governance in Vanuatu has been a source of concern for Australia as it forms part of Australia’s ‘Arc of Instability.’ Vanuatu has adopted a modified Westminster system as that system is often advocated as the model for constitutions and governance around the world. In various former colonies local populations were expected to simply absorb its liberal democratic principles apparently on some assumption that such principles were an innate part of human nature. Most readings of history would come to a different conclusion. Vanuatu illustrates this error and the complexities of a society that not only creates a broad challenge for governance, but undermines the credibility of simplistic, universalist approaches of liberal solutions, including institutional transplants, to these challenges. This paper asks questions about the nature and status of law in and governance of society in Vanuatu and then examines various answers, from broad social perspectives and academic sources to interviews conducted among members of the Vanuatu community. It concludes that the system fails as insufficiently attuned to the realities of the society that makes up Vanuatu. That is to say the system fails to effectively address the needs and interests of the population, and fails to sufficiently incorporate the indigenous systems in situ.

Frontline reporting, ethos and perception: Media challenges in the South Pacific

Abstract: The Melanesian sub‐region of the South Pacific, in particular, has been branded by some political analysts as an ‘arc of instability’ because of upheavals such as coups (Fiji), ethnic conflict (Solomon Islands), paramilitary revolts (Vanuatu), and secessionist rebellion and civil war (Bougainville‐Papua New Guinea and the Southern Highlands). Simplistic notions and prejudices about the region pose challenges for journalists attempting to report with depth, context and analytical skill. Pressures and dilemmas for the news media continue to gain momentum in the South Pacific, often from a cultural as well as socio‐political dimension. While the media in some countries is refreshingly outspoken and courageous, in others it has a trend towards self‐censorship. This article critiques coverage in the region and some of the problems in an age of globalisation and preoccupation with security. It also sketches the challenges for media education designed to contest images of the region beyond ‘coups, conflicts and contraband’.

Accessing energy resources in the arc of instability

Australia is currently 65% self-sufficient in oil production. Australian refineries import oil from a range of sources, including PNG, which is a substantial oil producer. Oil Search is Operator of oil projects in PNG. This paper concentrates on PNG rather than other countries in the arc of instability. To keep the industry healthy, PNG developers need to find more oil, to keep costs in check and to maintain relations with landowners. PNG has been politically and financially stable of late. The proposed PNG Gas Project, to pipe gas from PNG to Australia, would be of national importance for PNG and has the potential to enhance PNG's stability and independence.

Le crépuscule de la Coutume : culture et politique à l'heure du tournant néolibéral dans le Pacifique Sud

<titre>Waning Customs: Culture and Politics with the Advent of The Neoliberal Trend in the South Pacific </titre> The post-September 11,2001 years have been characterized in Melanesia by the direct re-engagement of the former colonial powers (Australia and New Zealand) and by the obligation imposed on the young Oceanic states to implement neoliberal political and economic &#8220;reforms&#8221;. An &#8220;arc of instability&#8221; supposedly stretches from Timor to Fiji, with a string of &#8220;failed states&#8221; of which the dereliction can only be treated by military intervention and the establishment of structural adjustment plans considered as a cure-all. This article sheds light on this turning point in international relations and undertakes to analyze its local repercussions with respect to traditions, in a context in which Melanesian societies and cultures are now regarded with an openly critical eye by the former colonial powers. The decline of ethnocultural nationalisms in the region, enshrined as state ideologies in the aftermath of independence, has a number of parallels with the current situation of biculturalism, a state institution in New Zealand since the 1980s, which is also now in crisis.