Aquaplanet Simulations Research Articles

Response of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves to Surface Temperature Forcing in Aquaplanet Simulations

AbstractThis study investigates changes in the propagation and maintenance of convectively coupled Kelvin waves (KWs) in response to surface warming. We use a set of three aquaplanet simulations made with the Community Atmospheric Model version 6 by varying the sea surface temperature boundary conditions to represent the current climate as well as warmer (+4 K) and cooler (−4 K) climates. Results show that KWs accelerate at the rate of about 7.1%/K and their amplitudes decrease by 4.7%/K. The dampening of KWs with warming is found to be associated with a weakening of the internal thermodynamic feedback between diabatic heating and temperature anomalies that generates KW eddy available potential energy (EAPE). The phase speed of KWs closely matches that of the second baroclinic mode KW in −4 K, while the phase speed of KWs is approximately that of the first baroclinic mode KW in +4 K. Meanwhile, the coupling between the two baroclinic modes weakens with warming. We hypothesize that in −4 K, as the first and second baroclinic modes are strongly coupled, KWs destabilize by positive EAPE generation within the second baroclinic mode and propagate more slowly, following the second baroclinic mode KW phase speed. In +4 K, as the first and second baroclinic modes decouple, KWs are damped by negative EAPE generation within the first baroclinic mode and propagate faster, following the first baroclinic mode KW phase speed.

The Influence of Large‐Scale Spatial Warming on Jet Stream Extreme Waviness on an Aquaplanet

AbstractThe effect of modified equator‐to‐pole temperature gradients on the jet stream by low‐level polar warming and upper‐level tropical warming is not fully understood. We perform aquaplanet simulations to quantify the impact of different sea surface temperature distributions on jet stream strength, large wave amplitudes and extreme waviness. The responses to warming in the waviness metrics Sinuosity Index and Local Wave Activity are sensitive to the latitude range over which they are calculated. Therefore, we use a latitude range that accurately represents the position of the jet. The uniform warming scenario strengthens the jet and reduces large wave amplitudes. Reductions in meridional temperature gradients lead to weakened mid‐latitudinal jet strength and show significant decreases in large wave amplitudes and jet stream waviness. These findings contradict the mechanism that weakened jet streams increase wave amplitudes and extreme jet stream waviness. We conclude that weakened jet streams do not necessarily become wavier.

ITCZ Response to Disabling Parameterized Convection in Global Fixed‐SST GFDL‐AM4 Aquaplanet Simulations at 50 and 6 km Resolutions

AbstractAs the community increases climate model horizontal resolutions and experiments with removing moist convective parameterizations entirely, it is imperative to understand how these advances affect the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We investigate how the ITCZ responds to deactivating parameterized convection at two resolutions, 50 and 6 km, in fixed sea surface temperature, aquaplanet simulations with the NOAA GFDL AM4 atmospheric model. Disabling parameterized convection at 50 km resolution narrows the ITCZ and increases its precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) maximum by ∼78%, whereas at 6 km resolution doing so widens the ITCZ and decreases its P–E maximum by ∼50%. Using the column‐integrated moist static energy budget, we decompose these tropical P–E responses into contributions from changes in atmospheric energy input (AEI), gross moist stability, and gross moisture stratification. At 6 km, the ITCZ weakens due to increased gross moist stability. Disabling the convective parameterization at this finer resolution deepens the circulation, favoring more efficient poleward energy transport out of the deep tropics and reduced precipitation in the core of the ITCZ. Conversely, at 50 km the ITCZ strengthening is primarily driven by AEI, which in turn stems primarily from increased low cloud amount and thus longwave cloud radiative cooling in the Hadley cell subsiding branch. The Hadley circulation overturning intensifies to produce poleward energy fluxes that compensate the longwave cooling, yielding a stronger ITCZ. We further show that the low level diabatic heating profiles over the descending region are instrumental in understanding such diverse responses.

Aquaplanet simulations with winter and summer hemispheres: model setup and circulation response to warming

Abstract. To support further understanding of circulation changes in a warming climate, an idealised aquaplanet model setup containing summer and winter hemispheres is presented, and the results of circulation changes under warming are discussed. First, a setup is introduced that enables aquaplanet simulations with a warmer and a colder hemisphere, including realistic-looking summer and winter jet streams, storm tracks, and precipitation patterns that are fairly similar to observations, as well as a more intense and equatorward storm track in the winter compared to the summer hemisphere. The sea surface temperature (SST) distribution used here is inspired by the June–July–August zonal mean SST found in reanalysis data and is flexible to allow control of the occurrence of a single or double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The setup is then used to investigate circulation changes under uniform warming, as motivated by recent research. For example, the stronger poleward shift of the storm tracks during summer compared to winter is reproduced. Furthermore, the jet waviness decreases under warming when compared on isentropes with maximum wind speed or isentropes at similar heights in pressure space. Jet stream waviness increases under warming when compared at similar-valued isentropes but primarily because the corresponding isentrope is closer to the surface in the warmer climate and waviness climatologically increases downwards in the atmosphere. A detailed analysis of the changes in wave amplitude for different wavenumbers confirms that the amplitude of large waves increases with warming, while that of short waves decreases with warming. The reduction in wave amplitude of short synoptic waves is found to dominate in the jet core region, where jet waviness also decreases and is more pronounced on the equatorward side of the jet. Long waves increase in amplitude on the poleward side of the jet and at upper stratospheric levels, which is consistent with increased jet waviness at these levels. The projected increased amplitude of planetary waves and the reduced amplitude of synoptic waves are thus clear in our aquaplanet simulations and do not require zonal asymmetries or regional warming patterns. During so-called high-amplitude wave events, there is no evidence for a preferential phase of Rossby waves of wavenumbers 5 or 7, indicating the crucial role of stationary waves forced by orography or land–sea contrast in establishing previously reported preferential phases. We confirm that feature-based block detection requires significant tuning to the warmer climate to avoid the occurrence of spurious trends. After adjustment for changes in tropopause height, the block detection used here shows no trend in the summer hemisphere and an increase in blocking in the colder hemisphere. We also confirm previous findings that the number of surface cyclones tends to decrease globally under warming and that the cyclone lifetimes become shorter, except for very long-lived cyclones.

Tropical Cyclones and Equatorial Waves in a Convection‐Permitting Aquaplanet Simulation With Off‐Equatorial SST Maximum

AbstractTropical weather phenomena—including tropical cyclones (TCs) and equatorial waves—are influenced by planetary‐to‐convective‐scale processes; yet, existing data sets and tools can only capture a subset of those processes. This study introduces a convection‐permitting aquaplanet simulation that can be used as a laboratory to study TCs, equatorial waves, and their interactions. The simulation was produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere (MPAS‐A) using a variable resolution mesh with convection‐permitting resolution (i.e., 3‐km cell spacing) between 10°S and 30°N. The underlying sea‐surface temperature is given by a zonally symmetric profile with a peak at 10°N, which allows for the formation of TCs. A comparison between the simulation and satellite, reanalysis, and airborne dropsonde data is presented to determine the realism of the simulated phenomena. The simulation captures a realistic TC intensity distribution, including major hurricanes, but their lifetime maximum intensities may be limited by the stronger vertical wind shear in the simulation compared to the observed tropical Pacific region. The simulation also captures convectively coupled equatorial waves, including Kelvin waves and easterly waves. Despite the idealization of the aquaplanet setup, the simulated three‐dimensional structure of both groups of waves is consistent with their observed structure as deduced from satellite and reanalysis data. Easterly waves, however, have peak rotation and meridional winds at a slightly higher altitude than in the reanalysis. Future studies may use this simulation to understand how convectively coupled equatorial waves influence the multi‐scale processes leading to tropical cyclogenesis.

On the Resolution Sensitivity of Equatorial Precipitation in a GFDL Global Atmospheric Model

AbstractWe performed a series of aquaplanet simulations at the horizontal resolution from 50 to 6 km with identical parameterization settings using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model version 4 implemented with the two‐moment Morrison‐Gettelman cloud microphysics with prognostic precipitation (GFDL AM4‐MG2). At the finer resolution, the global mean resolved‐scale precipitation increases and that from cumulus parameterization decreases. The model also simulates less/thinner clouds over the low latitudes and more/thicker clouds over the high latitudes as the resolution increases. The precipitation over the deep tropics is investigated in detail. We find little resolution sensitivity in the daily mean precipitation extremes. Changes of the equatorial resolved precipitation with resolution cannot be fully explained by the resolution dependence in the vertical velocity amplitude. We report a robust sensitivity in the convective organization over the deep tropics to the model resolution. In simulations of finer resolution, the localized convection is suppressed, and the organized convective system associated with large‐scale circulations becomes more prominent.

The relationship between extra-tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation in idealised current and future climates

Abstract. Extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) are the main cause of precipitation in the mid-latitudes, and there is substantial evidence that ETC-related precipitation will increase in the future. However, little is known about how this will impact on the dynamical strength of ETCs, and whether the impact will differ for different types of ETCs. We quantify the linear relationship between maximum vorticity and ETC-related precipitation in the current and idealised future climates and determine how this relationship depends on the structure and characteristics of the ETC. Three 10-year-long aqua-planet simulations are performed with a state-of-the-art global model, OpenIFS, that differ in their specified sea surface temperature (SST) distributions. A control simulation, a uniform warming simulation, and a polar amplification simulation are performed. ETCs are objectively identified using the feature-tracking software TRACK, and k-means clustering is applied to the ETC precipitation field to group the ETCs into clusters with similar precipitation structures. In all experiments, ETCs with stronger maximum vorticity are associated with more precipitation. For all cyclones considered together, we find that the slope of the linear relationship between maximum cyclone vorticity and ETC precipitation is larger in the uniform warming and polar amplification simulations than in the control simulation. We hypothesise that if an increase in precipitation in warmer climates were to feed back, via diabatic heating and potential vorticity anomalies, onto the dynamical intensity of the ETCs, precipitation and vorticity would increase at similar rates, and hence the slope of the linear regression line between precipitation and vorticity would remain similar. Our results indicate either that there is no feedback or that the increase in vorticity due to diabatic heating is masked by the decrease in the Eady growth rate which occurs in both the uniform warming and polar amplification simulations compared to the control. The k-means clustering identifies four distinct and physically realistic types of ETCs which are present in all experiments meaning that the average precipitation patterns associated with ETCs are unlikely to change in the future. The strongest dependency between ETC maximum vorticity and precipitation occurs for ETCs that have the most precipitation associated with the warm front. ETCs with the heaviest precipitation along the cold front, which are the most intense storms in terms of maximum vorticity, also exhibit a strong dependency between precipitation and maximum vorticity, but this dependency is weaker and has a smaller correlation coefficient than the warm-front ETCs. Not all ETC types exhibit a strong dependency between precipitation and maximum vorticity. ETCs located at high latitudes with weak precipitation show little dependency due to the lack of moisture, whereas ETCs with the precipitation located mainly in the centre of the ETCs have the weakest linear regression slope, which is likely due to the lack of upper-level forcing. These results stress that despite small changes in the strength of the cyclones, the precipitation increases are large, indicating potential future increases in flooding associated with cyclones.

Vapor buoyancy increases clear-sky thermal emission

The molar mass of H2O (18 g mol−1) is smaller than that of dry air (29 g mol−1), which makes humid air lighter than dry air with the same temperature and pressure. This vapor buoyancy (VB) effect has been traditionally considered small in large-scale climate dynamics and even neglected in some leading climate models. Here, using theory and aquaplanet simulations with prescribed surface temperatures, we show that VB increases tropospheric air temperature, and that the warmer atmosphere emits more clear-sky thermal radiation by about 2–4 W m−2 in the dry subtropical areas, a significant radiative effect. We then analyze Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures and realistic topography. The results show that VB can increase clear-sky thermal radiation by up to 5 W m−2 over the ocean and about 15 W m−2 over the subtropical arid land regions. The radiative effect over arid land is amplified by a substantial increase of surface temperature due to VB. Our results highlight the role of VB in regulating Earth’s energy balance both at the top of the atmosphere and at the land surface. This study points to new ways to improve climate models and their simulated energy balance.

Responses of Global Atmospheric Energy Transport to Idealized Groundwater Conditions in a General Circulation Model

Abstract The representation of groundwater dynamics in land surface models and their roles in global precipitation variations has received attention in recent years. Studies have revealed the overall higher soil moisture but rather diverse precipitation changes after incorporating the groundwater component in climate models. However, groundwater effects on large-scale atmospheric energy transport, the fundamental atmospheric variable regulating Earth’s climate, have not been explored thoroughly. In this study, a pair of idealized experiments corresponding to contrast globally fixed water table depths by AMIP-type simulations in the Community Earth System Model was conducted. In the wet (shallow water table) experiments, an increased meridional surface temperature gradient makes the mean meridional energy transports and Hadley circulation stronger than dry (deep water table) experiments over the tropics. Such energy transport changes are primarily attributed to the dynamic contribution (intensified Hadley circulation). The wet experiments make the simulated world be like an aquaplanet simulation with less land–sea temperature contrast and the enhancement (reduction) of mean meridional circulation (stationary eddies) energy transports. Furthermore, the South Asian monsoon circulation in the wet experiment shows a southward shift in the premonsoon season (April–June) and slight weakening in the mature phase (July and August). This study explores the impacts of the soil conditions caused by various water table depths on global energy transport and has further implications for climate model developments and experiment designs.

Monsoon Seasonality Advanced by Opposite‐Hemisphere Continental Drift

AbstractCharacteristics of regional monsoons are largely determined by continental configuration. Motivated by the impacts of Australia on the East Asian monsoon, we investigate the modulation of the monsoon by opposite‐hemisphere continent using aquaplanet simulations with idealized continents. Simulation results show that the monsoon seasonality is advanced significantly by a near‐equator continent in the opposite‐hemisphere. In the early boreal summer, the rapid cooling of the Southern Hemisphere continents forms a high pressure on it, leading to enhanced cross‐equatorial flow and premoistening of the Northern Hemisphere monsoon, thus promoting the monsoon onset. This mechanism requires the opposite‐hemispheric continent to be within a 25° tropical belt to activate this mechanism. The results imply that the continental drift of Australia over the past 40 Ma might have shaped the seasonality of the East Asian monsoon over the geological timescale.

Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature

Abstract Previous work identified an anthropogenic fingerprint pattern in TAC(x, t), the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT), but did not explicitly consider whether fingerprint identification in satellite TAC(x, t) data could have been influenced by real-world multidecadal internal variability (MIV). We address this question here using large ensembles (LEs) performed with five climate models. LEs provide many different sequences of internal variability noise superimposed on an underlying forced signal. Despite differences in historical external forcings, climate sensitivity, and MIV properties of the five models, their TAC(x, t) fingerprints are similar and statistically identifiable in 239 of the 240 LE realizations of historical climate change. Comparing simulated and observed variability spectra reveals that consistent fingerprint identification is unlikely to be biased by model underestimates of observed MIV. Even in the presence of large (factor of 3–4) intermodel and inter-realization differences in the amplitude of MIV, the anthropogenic fingerprints of seasonal cycle changes are robustly identifiable in models and satellite data. This is primarily due to the fact that the distinctive, global-scale fingerprint patterns are spatially dissimilar to the smaller-scale patterns of internal TAC(x, t) variability associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The robustness of the seasonal cycle detection and attribution results shown here, taken together with the evidence from idealized aquaplanet simulations, suggest that basic physical processes are dictating a common pattern of forced TAC(x, t) changes in observations and in the five LEs. The key processes involved include GHG-induced expansion of the tropics, lapse-rate changes, land surface drying, and sea ice decrease.

The Role of Water Vapor in the Response of the Extratropical Circulation of Earth‐Like Planets to Obliquity Changes

AbstractIn this study, we use idealized aquaplanet simulations of Earth‐like planets to explore the large‐scale atmospheric circulation’s response to changes in shortwave radiation, through changes in the planet obliquity, and in longwave radiation, through changes in the prescribed optical depth. We primarily focus on the extratropical circulation and the counterintuitive weakening of extratropical eddy activity, and associated precipitating storm tracks, with increased obliquity. We show that on high‐obliquity planets with a small surface thermal inertia, net energy deficit during the winter months is primarily balanced by the latent energy component of the atmospheric heat capacity, which buffers any significant atmospheric cooling. As temperatures finally start to decrease, condensational latent heat release of atmospheric moisture further slows down the cooling and keeps the winter pole warmer than the midlatitudes until after the winter solstice. This prevents vigorous baroclinic eddy activity, which lives off the potential energy stored in the sloping isopycnals, as well as the development of a Ferrel cell and storm track. For planets with larger surface heat capacity, we see a similar suppression, with the energy storage in the ocean surface, rather than atmospheric latent energy storage, primarily balancing the net energy loss during the winter months. These results suggest that, regardless of surface thermal inertia, water‐covered high‐obliquity Earth‐like planets would not experience significant extratropical storm activity and highlight the need for a proper characterization of polar properties in planetary modeling and observational investigations.

Seasonally and Regionally Dependent Shifts of the Atmospheric Westerly Jets under Global Warming

Abstract A distinct feature of the atmospheric circulation response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing is the poleward shift of the zonal-mean westerly jet. The dynamical mechanisms of the zonal-mean poleward jet shift have been extensively studied in literature. At seasonal/regional scales, however, the westerly jets can shift equatorward, such as in the early-summer Asia–Pacific region, the late-winter America–Atlantic region, and the winter/spring east Pacific. These equatorward jet shifts imply climate impacts distinct from those of the poleward shifts, yet their causes are not well understood. Here, based on a hierarchy of coupled, prescribed-SST, and aquaplanet simulations, we attribute the seasonal/regional equatorward jet shifts to the enhanced tropical upper-level warming (ETUW), which arises from both the tropical moist adiabat and the enhanced equatorial surface warming. By steepening the meridional temperature gradient in the subtropical upper-to-middle level and assisted by positive eddy feedback, the ETUW increases the zonal wind equatorward of the climatological jet. When the regional/seasonal meridional temperature gradients (or equivalently the westerly jets) are weak and peak close to the tropics, the ETUW effect overcomes the poleward jet-shift mechanisms and leads to the equatorward jet shifts. This climatological-state dependency is consistently seen in the decomposed jet responses to uniform warming and surface warming pattern, and further demonstrated through idealized aquaplanet experiments with designed climatological states. For uniform warming, the ETUW arising from moist adiabat makes the general poleward jet shifts insignificant in the aforementioned favorable regions/seasons. For warming pattern, the ETUW from enhanced equatorial warming drives substantial equatorward jet shifts in these favorable seasons/regions.

Effect of the Grell‐Freitas Deep Convection Scheme in Quasi‐Uniform and Variable‐Resolution Aquaplanet CAM Simulations

AbstractThe Grell‐Freitas deep convection scheme (GF) has been implemented in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) with the nonhydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales dynamical core. Aquaplanet simulations have been performed with a global quasi‐uniform resolution mesh with ∼120 km grid spacing and a variable resolution mesh employing a circular refined region with ∼30 km grid spacing centering at the equator and ∼120 km elsewhere. GF produces overall patterns of the general circulations comparable to those of other aquaplanet experiments, including those produced using the default Zhang‐McFarlane convection scheme (ZM) in CAM Version 5.4. GF alleviates the overestimated occurrence of weak intensity precipitation characteristic of ZM due to GF's different closure methods and deep‐convection trigger conditions. Compared to ZM, the GF characteristics of the equatorial Kelvin waves are closer to observations. GF also better simulates precipitation at variable resolution, with no unrealistic wave distortion by the refinement. Overall, GF shows less sensitivity of convective precipitation and heating/moistening tendencies to changes in horizontal resolution compared to ZM. However, vertically overlapped total cloud fraction simulated with GF in the tropics is more sensitive to the resolution than ZM due to the larger resolution‐sensitivity of high‐level cloud fraction in the tropics.

Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front

Abstract. The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data indicate a tripole pattern of change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In this study, the tripole pattern is qualitatively reproduced by simulating the change of a storm track generated downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature (SST) front under uniform warming on an aquaplanet. The simulated tripole pattern consists of reduced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) upstream and equatorward of the SST front, extended and poleward shifted enhanced EKE downstream of the SST front, and a regionally reduced EKE increase at polar latitudes. In the absence of the idealized SST front, in contrast, the storm track exhibits a poleward shift but no tripole pattern. A detailed analysis of the EKE and eddy available potential energy (EAPE) sources and sinks reveals that the changes are locally driven by changes in baroclinic conversion rather than diabatic processes. However, globally the change in baroclinic conversion averages to zero; thus the observed global EAPE increase results from diabatic generation. In particular, resolved-scale condensation plus parameterized cloud physics dominate the global EAPE increase followed by longwave radiation. Amplified stationary waves affect EKE and EAPE advection, which contributes to the local EKE and EAPE minimum at polar latitudes. Feature-based tracking provides further insight into cyclone life cycle changes downstream of the SST front. Moderately deepening cyclones deepen less in a warmer climate, while strongly deepening cyclones deepen more. Similarly, the average cyclone becomes less intense in a warmer climate, while the extremely intense cyclones become more intense. Both results hold true for cyclones with genesis in the vicinity of the SST front and elsewhere. The mean cyclone lifetime decreases, while it increases for those cyclones downstream of the SST front. The mean poleward displacement between genesis and maximum intensity increases for the most intense cyclones, while averaged over all cyclones there is a mild reduction and the result depends on the definition of the displacement. Finally, the number of cyclones decreases by approximately 15 %. Aquaplanet simulations with a localized SST front thus provide an enriched picture of storm track dynamics and associated changes with warming.

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part II: Summer Monsoons

Abstract The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet control simulations and experiments with a highly idealized narrow tropical continent (0°–45°W, 30°S–30°N). We compare the two setups to contrast the characteristics of oceanic and continental rainbands and investigate monsoon development in GCMs with CMIP5-class dynamics and physics. Over land, the rainy season occurs close to the time of maximum insolation. Other than in its timing, the continental rainband remains in an ITCZ-like regime akin to deep-tropical monsoons, with a smooth latitudinal transition, a poleward reach only slightly farther than that of the oceanic ITCZ (about 10°), and a constant width throughout the year. This confinement of the monsoon to the deep tropics is the result of a tight coupling between regional rainfall and circulation anomalies: ventilation of the lower troposphere by the anomalous meridional circulation is the main limiting mechanism, while ventilation by the mean westerly jet aloft is secondary. Comparison of two subsets of TRACMIP simulations indicates that a low heat capacity determines, to a first degree, both the timing and the strength of the regional solsticial circulation; this lends support to the choice of idealizing land as a thin slab ocean in much theoretical literature on monsoon dynamics. Yet, the timing and strength of the monsoon are modulated by the treatment of evaporation over land, especially when moisture and radiation can interact. This points to the need for a fuller exploration of land characteristics in the hierarchical modeling of the tropical rainbands.

Robust Expansion of Extreme Midlatitude Storms Under Global Warming

AbstractExtreme extratropical storms are among the most impact‐relevant weather events in the midlatitudes. Under global warming, extreme storms are expected to intensify; however, little is known about the response of their spatial structure. Here, we show that with warming, extreme storms not only become stronger, but also grow larger. By employing multi‐model projections from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and an idealized aquaplanet simulation, we demonstrate that global warming leads to a robust increase in extreme storm size that is relatively spatially uniform in the midlatitudes and consistent among the models. The physical mechanism for the size increase is the increase in the Rossby deformation radius due to the increase in low‐level dry static stability with warming. The storm expansion adds a substantial contribution (2.6%/K), along with the increase in precipitation intensity (3.2%/K), to the increase in storm total precipitation. The results improve our understanding and have significant implications for climate mitigation.

Differences in Tropical Rainfall in Aquaplanet Simulations With Resolved or Parameterized Deep Convection

AbstractThis study investigates the effects of resolved deep convection on tropical rainfall and its multi‐scale variability. A series of aquaplanet simulations are analyzed using the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere with horizontal cell spacings from 120 to 3 km. The 3‐km experiment uses a novel configuration with 3‐km cell spacing between 20°S and 20°N and 15‐km cell spacing poleward of 30°N/S. A comparison of those experiments shows that resolved deep convection yields a narrower, stronger, and more equatorward intertropical convergence zone, which is supported by stronger nonlinear horizontal momentum advection in the boundary layer. There is also twice as much tropical rainfall variance in the experiment with resolved deep convection than in the experiments with parameterized convection. All experiments show comparable precipitation variance associated with Kelvin waves; however, the experiment with resolved deep convection shows higher precipitation variance associated with westward propagating systems. Resolved deep convection also yields at least two orders of magnitude more frequent heavy rainfall rates (>2 mm hr−1) than the experiments with parameterized convection. A comparison of organized precipitation systems demonstrates that tropical convection organizes into linear systems that are associated with stronger and deeper cold pools and upgradient convective momentum fluxes when convection is resolved. In contrast, parameterized convection results in more circular systems, weaker cold pools, and downgradient convective momentum fluxes. These results suggest that simulations with parameterized convection are missing an important feedback loop between the mean state, convective organization, and meridional gradients of moisture and momentum.

The Midlatitude Response to Polar Sea Ice Loss: Idealized Slab-Ocean Aquaplanet Experiments with Thermodynamic Sea Ice

Abstract Slab-ocean aquaplanet simulations with thermodynamic sea ice are used to study the zonally symmetric mechanisms whereby polar sea ice loss impacts the midlatitude atmosphere. Imposed sea ice loss (difference without and with sea ice with historical CO2 concentration) leads to global warming, polar amplified warming, and a weakening of poleward atmospheric energy transport and the midlatitude storm-track intensity. The simulations confirm an energetic mechanism that predicts a weakening of storm-track intensity in response to sea ice loss, given the change of surface albedo and assuming a passive ocean. Namely, sea ice loss increases the absorption of shortwave radiation by the surface (following the decrease of surface albedo), which increases surface turbulent fluxes into the atmosphere thereby weakening poleward atmospheric energy transport. The storm-track intensity weakens because it dominates poleward energy transport. The quantitative prediction underlying the mechanism captures the weakening but underestimates its amplitude. The weakening is also consistent with weaker mean available potential energy (polar amplified warming) and scales with sea ice extent, which is controlled by the slab-ocean depth. The energetic mechanism also operates in response to sea ice loss due to melting (difference of the response to quadrupled CO2 with and without sea ice). Finally, the midlatitude response to sea ice loss in the aquaplanet agrees qualitatively with the response in more complex climate models. Namely, the storm-track intensity weakens and the energetic mechanism operates, but the method used to impose sea ice loss in coupled models impacts the surface response.

The Flexible Modelling Framework for the Met Office Unified Model (Flex-UM, using UM 12.0 release)

Abstract. The Met Office Unified Model (UM) is a world-leading atmospheric weather and climate model. In addition to comprehensive simulations of the atmosphere, the UM is capable of running idealised simulations, such as the dry physics Held–Suarez test case, radiative convective equilibrium and simulating planetary atmospheres other than Earth. However, there is a disconnect between the simplicity of the idealised UM model configurations and the full complexity of the UM. This gap inhibits the broad use of climate model hierarchy approaches within the UM. To fill this gap, we have developed the Flexible Modelling Framework for the UM – Flex-UM – which broadens the climate model hierarchy capabilities within the UM. Flex-UM was designed to replicate the atmospheric physics of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) idealised moist physics aqua-planet model. New parameterisations have been implemented in Flex-UM, including simplified schemes for convection, large-scale precipitation, radiation, boundary layer and sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions. These idealised parameterisations have been implemented in a modular way, so that each scheme is available for use in any model configuration. This has the advantage that we can incrementally add or remove complexity within the model hierarchy. We compare Flex-UM to ERA5 and aqua-planet simulations using the Isca climate modelling framework (based on the GFDL moist physics aqua-planet model) and comprehensive simulations of the UM (using the GA7.0 configuration). We also use two SST boundary conditions to compare the models (fixed SST and a slab ocean). We find the Flex-UM climatologies are similar to both Isca and GA7.0 (though Flex-UM is generally a little cooler, with higher relative humidity and a less pronounced storm track). Flex-UM has a single Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the slab-ocean simulation but a double-ITCZ in the fixed-SST simulation. Further work is needed to ensure that the atmospheric energy budget closes to within 1–2 W m−2, as the current configuration of Flex-UM gains 9–11 W m−2 (the range covers the two SST boundary conditions). Flex-UM greatly extends the modelling hierarchy capabilities of the UM and offers a simplified framework for developing, testing and evaluating parameterisations within the UM.