Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Research Articles

Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Food Security in India: A CGE Modelling Approach

Ensuring food security is not only the responsibility of the national government but the right of the common people of the nation. In order to keep track of the issue, the Indian government has decided to undertake bulk procurement of basic food crops like paddy, wheat and coarse serial; and distribute them to the downtrodden people at a very nominal price. In this paper, we have applied Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling based on India’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to study the impacts of trade liberalisation and food subsidy policies on the macroeconomic variables. We find that, subsidy policy in basic food crops like, paddy, wheat and coarse cereals along with some reallocation of budgetary expenditures in other developmental activities will certainly reduce food insecurity, destitution and hunger among the targeted population. This will increase overall social welfare as in the whole process of food transfer mechanism, the upper tier of the urban and rural population will have to sacrifice less than the welfare gain enjoyed by the targeted rural and urban population.

Labour Supply Curves for EU Member and Candidate States: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper introduces a more sophisticated modelling of the labour market functioning of the European member and candidate states through the introduction of labour supply curves in an applied general equilibrium model. A labour supply curve offers a middle way in labour supply modelling, sitting between the two commonly adopted extremes of spare capacity and full employment. The first part of the paper outlines the theoretical foundation of the labour supply curve. Real world data is then used to derive labour supply curves for each member state, along with Croatia and Turkey. Finally, the impact of the newly specified labour markets on the results of an illustrative scenario involving reform of the common agricultural policy is explored. The results of computable general equilibrium analysis with the labour supply curve confirm the theoretical expectation that modelling the labour supply through an upwards-sloping curve produces results that lie between the extremes of spare capacity of the labour factor and fully employed labour. This specification captures a greater degree of heterogeneity in the labour markets of the member and candidate states, allowing for a more nuanced modelling of the effects of policy reform, including welfare effects.

Impact of exchange rate reforms on Sudan's economy: Applied general equilibrium analysis

Exchange rate is one of the major trade policy instruments used to correct current account deficit. This study used the standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to analyze the possible effects of exchange rate policy on the Sudanese economy. Sudan social accounting matrix (SAM) for year 2000 was used as a core database for the model. The results revealed that depreciation of exchange rate improved the GDP, due to improvement in the balance of trade, regardless of deterioration in total absorption level and agricultural exports benefits more from depreciation than the industrial sector. On the other hand, appreciation resulted in deterioration of gross domestic product (GDP) and improvement of private consumption. Finally, depreciation of the exchange rate had better implication on the economy as a whole and on the agricultural sector in particular, than appreciation of the exchange rate. Key words: Exchange rate, computable general equilibrium model, social accounting matrix.

Corporate Tax Policy and Unemployment in Europe: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

AbstractThis paper analyses the impact of corporate taxes on structural unemployment, using an applied general equilibrium model for the European Union. We find that the unemployment and welfare effects of corporate taxes differ considerably among European countries. The magnitude of these effects rises in particular in the broadness of the corporate tax base of a country, and the strength of international spillover effects through foreign direct investment. The effect on unemployment is smaller if the substitution elasticity between labour and capital is large, if international spillover effects operate primarily via multinational profit shifting, and with small labour market imperfections. Although the effect of corporate taxes on unemployment may be smaller than the effect of labour and value‐added taxes (e.g. under relatively strong real wage resistance), the welfare costs of corporate taxation are typically larger for most European countries under plausible parameters, especially under strong international spillovers.

Tax Reform, Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil: an Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

This case study considers two frequently advocated approaches to reducing indirect taxation in Brazil: reduction in taxes on food; reduction in taxes on intermediate inputs to agriculture. To asses the effects of both on income distribution poverty levels, a bottom-up general equilibrium model of Brazil (TERM-BR) is linked to a microsimulation model. It is shown that one of the favoured policies is more poverty reducing, the other more income inequality reducing. Perhaps even more importantly, the analysis demonstrates that the two policies lead to very different outcomes in terms of inter-state transfers; a major political barrier to reform in a federal state.

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Nepal: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Nepal aggressively liberalized its foreign trade during the 1990s. This paper attempts to estimate the impact of trade liberalization on household welfare and poverty in Nepal through the construction of a regional CGE model. The model disaggregates factors of production - capital, land, and labor - by region (urban, Terai and hills/mountains) in order to establish direct links between sector of activity, factor remuneration, and household income. In particular, certain activities are more intensive in factors from a given region (e.g. the manufacturing sector is more intensive in urban factors of production and the agriculture sector is more intensive in Terai factor of production). Regional factor remuneration in turn maps into regional household income. We find that trade liberalization reduces the nominal returns to urban factors of production in comparison with rural factors of production, resulting in a reduction in the relative income of urban households. Rural and urban households consume roughly the same share of industrial goods, but rural households consume relatively more agricultural goods and fewer services. As the fall in consumer prices in the latter two sectors are similar, there is little rural-urban difference in the variation in consumer price indices. Consumer prices generally fall in roughly the same proportion as nominal incomes such that there are negligible welfare changes. However, poverty falls substantially, with the greatest impact in rural Terai, followed by the rural hills and the mountain region, and least in urban areas.

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Nepal: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Nepal aggressively liberalized its foreign trade during the 1990s. This paper attempts to estimate the impact of trade liberalization on household welfare and poverty in Nepal through the construction of a regional CGE model. The model disaggregates factors of production - capital, land, and labor - by region (urban, Terai and hills/mountains) in order to establish direct links between sector of activity, factor remuneration, and household income. In particular, certain activities are more intensive in factors from a given region (e.g. the manufacturing sector is more intensive in urban factors of production and the agriculture sector is more intensive in Terai factor of production). Regional factor remuneration in turn maps into regional household income. We find that trade liberalization reduces the nominal returns to urban factors of production in comparison with rural factors of production, resulting in a reduction in the relative income of urban households. Rural and urban households consume roughly the same share of industrial goods, but rural households consume relatively more agricultural goods and fewer services. As the fall in consumer prices in the latter two sectors are similar, there is little rural-urban difference in the variation in consumer price indices. Consumer prices generally fall in roughly the same proportion as nominal incomes such that there are negligible welfare changes. However, poverty falls substantially, with the greatest impact in rural Terai, followed by the rural hills and the mountain region, and least in urban areas.

Tax Reform, Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper analyzes the impacts of three different indirect tax policies on the Brazilian economy: reduction of indirect taxes over the main household consumption products; reduction of indirect taxes over the main inputs used in agriculture; and the reduction of indirect taxes over all products in a specific region (Sao Paulo state) in Brazil. The analysis was carried out with the aid of an inter-regional static general equilibrium model of the country that was linked to a micro-simulation model used for poverty and income distribution analysis. The first two simulations showed that the policies have potential to improve income distribution, mainly benefiting the lower income families in the poorest regions. The reduction of indirect taxes over goods and services in Sao Paulo state shows that this state would benefit more compared to the other states, an example of the so called fiscal war. This policy also points to some regressive effects of the tax policies on income distribution, since it disproportionately benefits the higher income groups located in the Sao Paulo state. The strong fall significant drop in tax collection should be taken as a sign for restraining policy implementation.

Applied general equilibrium analysis of renewable energy policies

In this paper we develop an applied general equilibrium framework for assessing socio-economic impacts of alternative renewable energy policies and apply it to the bioenergy sector. The policy scenarios are assessed in a comparative static analysis. The numerical simulation results allow us to assess and compare welfare and distributional impacts of alternative renewable energy policies. Our empirical findings suggest that the bioenergy sector in Poland would benefit most from an indirect tax reduction. According to our simulation results, reducing the fossil energy sectors’ subsidies would be the second best policy option.

Tax Reform, Income Distribution and Poverty in Brazil: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper analyses the impacts of three different indirect tax policies on the Brazilian economy: reduction of indirect taxes over the main household consumption products: reduction of indirect taxes over the main inputs used in agriculture; and the reduction of indirect taxes over all products in a specific region (Sao Paulo State) in Brazil. The analysis was carried out with the aid of an inter-regional static general equilibrium model of the country that was linked to a micro-simulation model used for poverty and income distribution analysis. The first two simulations showed that the policies have potential to improve income distribution, mainly benefiting the lower income families in the poorest regions. The reduction of indirect taxes over goods and services in Sao Paulo state shows that this state would benefit more compared to the other states, an example of the so called fiscal war. This policy also points to some regressive effects of the tax policies on income distribution, since it disproportionately benefits the higher income groups located in the Sao Paulo state. The strong fall significant drop in tax collection should be taken as a sign for restraining policy implementation.

Corporate Tax Policy and Unemployment in Europe: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper analyzes the impact of corporate taxes on structural unemployment, using an applied general equilibrium model for the European Union. We find that the unemployment and welfare effects of corporate taxes differ considerably among European countries. The magnitude of these effects rise in particular in the broadness of the corporate tax base of a country, and the strength of international spillover effects through foreign direct investment. The effect on unemployment is smaller if the substitution elasticity between labour and capital is large, if international spillover effects operate primarily via multinational profit shifting, and if equilibrium forces on the labour market are strong. Although the effect of corporate taxes on unemployment may be smaller than the effect of labour and value-added taxes (e.g. under relatively strong real wage resistance), the welfare costs of corporate taxation are typically larger for most European countries under plausible parameters, especially under strong international spillovers.

Reforming Social Welfare in Germany: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

AbstractIn this paper, the effects of social assistance reform proposals are discussed for the case of Germany using a computable general equilibrium model that incorporates a discrete choice model of labour supply. This allows us to identify general equilibrium effects of the reforms on wages and unemployment. The simulation results show that general equilibrium wage reactions mitigate labour supply effects and that unemployment in fact decreases. Wage reactions are thus sufficiently strong to prevent additional labour supply from translating into higher unemployment. The simulations indicate that major cuts in welfare payments are necessary to produce substantial employment effects.

Applied general equilibrium analysis of trade liberalisation on land-based sectors in Malaysia and Indonesia

This paper presents general equilibrium evaluations of forest sector trade for Southeast Asian exporters. The four scenarios examined range from the 1994 Uruguay Round tariff reductions to a complete liberalisation of forest and agricultural products trade. We find that simultaneous reductions in forest and agricultural sector tariffs make Indonesia and Malaysia worse off. For Indonesia, this is due to the fall in forest rent and agricultural tariff revenues. Malaysia has the highest ratio of agricultural imports to total land-based sector imports, the rise in agricultural prices thus hits Malaysian consumers the hardest. We find that terms of trade effect omitted from the partial equilibrium framework may reduce the welfare calculations for Malaysia and Indonesia in the forest sector trade by as much as 106 and 58%, respectively. This points to the importance of general equilibrium modelling in the logging industry. The same applies to other sector specific analyses where trade is concentrated between few countries.

Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation - An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany and India

Germany has committed itself to reducing its carbon emissions by 25 percent in 2005 as compared to 1990 emission levels. To achieve this goal, the government has recently launched an environmental tax reform which entails a continuous increase in energy taxes in conjunction with a revenue-neutral cut in non-wage labor costs. This policy is supposed to yield a double dividend, reducing both, the problem of global warming and high unemployment rates. In addition to domestic actions, international treaties on climate protection allow for the supplementary use of flexible instruments to exploit cheaper emission reduction possibilities elsewhere. One concrete option for Germany would be to enter joint implementation with developing countries such as India where Germany pays emission reduction abroad rather than meeting its reduction target solely by domestic action. In this paper, we investigate whether an environmental tax reform cum joint implementation (JI) provides employment and overall efficiency gains as compared to an environmental tax reform stand-alone (ETR). We address this question in the framework of a large-scale general equilibrium model for Germany and India where Germany may undertake joint implementation with the Indian electricity sector. Our main finding is that joint implementation offsets adverse effects of carbon emission constraints on the German economy. JI significantly lowers the level of carbon taxes and thus reduces the total costs of abatement as well as negative effects on labor demand. In addition, JI triggers direct investment demand for energy efficient power plants produced in Germany. This provides positive employment effects and additional income for Germany. For India, joint implementation equips its electricity industry with scarce capital goods leading to a more efficient power production with lower electricity prices for the economy and substantial welfare gains.

Indra-Industry Trade, Endogenous Technical Change, Wage Inequality and Welfare

By using alternative intra-industry trade models (1. New goods cannot be introduced into the economy; 2. The possibility for a set of capital goods available in the economy to vary; the models consider the existence of intersectoral linkages), I show by means of Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) analysis that trade rises wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers; but the impact on wage inequality is far larger, when countries are assumed to exchange differentiated capital goods. The latter result has been obtained by using an imperfect competitive model, which embodies a sector bias technological change that arises from trade. In addition, the gains from trade, insignificant under the standard trade hypotheses, are extraordinarily large when endogenous technological change is taken into account. The main policy conclusion is that if policy makers of flexible wage economies introduce trade barriers to reduce wage inequality, these protective measures, by affecting the diffusion of technology, would cause a large welfare loss. [D58, f12, F43, J3, O3]

Strategic Apportionment of the State Corporate Income Tax: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Using an eight-region, eight-sector applied general equilibrium model, we find that when imposed independently, single-factor sales policies may have substantially positive economic development imp...

Intra-Industry Trade, Endogenous Technological Change, Wage Inequality and Welfare

By using alternative intra-industry trade models (1. - New goods cannot be introduced into the economy; 2. - The possibility for a set of capital goods available in the economy to vary; the models consider the existence of intersectoral linkages), I show by means of Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) analysis that globalisation (either lower transport costs or lower tariffs) rises wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers as well as within each group; but the impact on wage inequality is far larger, when countries are assumed to exchange differentiated capital goods. The latter result has been obtained by using an imperfect competitive model, which embodies a sector bias technological change that arises from trade. In addition, the gains from trade, insignificant under the standard trade hypotheses, are extraordinarily large when endogenous technological change is taken into account. The main policy conclusion is that if policy makers of flexible wage economies introduce trade barriers to reduce wage inequality, these protective measures, by affecting the diffusion of technology, would cause a large welfare loss.

Economic Effects of an Uncoordinated Versus a Coordinated Carbon Dioxide Policy in the European Union: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

The objective of this paper is to quantify the economic effects of introducing carbon-reduction policies in the European Union (EU). For this purpose, we use linked applied general equilibrium (AGE) models for 11 EU member countries. This method enables us to measure the change in competitiveness for domestic industries; the effect on growth, employment and inflation in member countries; and the costs and benefits of a coordinated versus an uncoordinated approach to adhere to an EU target of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Unemployment is high in the EU, and many economists believe that this problem as well as global warming can be solved by a CO2 tax, where tax revenues are used to reduce employers’ contributions to social insurance. Then, hopefully, a'double dividend will result for the environment as well as for the labor market. In one simulation, each country implements a CO2 tax to limit CO2 emissions by 10%. As an alternative to this uncoordinated approach, we calculated an overall CO2 tax for the EU to limit the CO2 emissions of the EU by 10%. We will measure the effects on the labor market, on economic performance and on trade flows under the uncoordinated CO2 policy, and will compare the results with the coordinated CO2 policy of an overall CO2 reduction for the EU.

APEC and Its Developing Members: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Regional Trading Arrangements

APEC and Its Developing Members: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Regional Trading Arrangements

Motor-Fuel Taxes and Household Welfare: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

The shifts in expenditure patterns of motor-fuel tax receipts that have occurred over the last decade typically are not included in the incidence estimates of these taxes. We explicitly incorporate these changing expenditure patterns into our analysis of distributional impacts of motor-fuel tax increases using an applied general equilibrium framework. Our results indicate that the greater the proportion of motor-fuel tax revenue devoted to general uses, the greater is the absolute and relative burden of the lowest income household, and the more regressive is the policy with respect to the overall distributional structure.