Application Of Multi-attribute Utility Theory Research Articles

An application of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) to the prioritization of rural roads to improve rural accessibility in Nigeria

Good quality rural road infrastructure seems to contribute substantially to improvements in several socio-economic indicators in rural areas: increases accessibility to markets, educational and health facilities, and stimulates economic activities. However, several millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa do not live in proximity to an all-season road. A robust process of prioritizing roads for upgrade is needed to ensure efficient allocation of scarce resources in a manner that will maximize accessibility to key social amenities and economic opportunities. This study uses Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) to examine how rural roads in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria may be prioritized for upgrade to maximize access to key socio-economic facilities. In our analysis, the rural roads to be prioritized are the alternatives while the decision criteria are: social, economic, demographic, financial, and political. The MAUT is preferred to the commonly-used Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) because the number of alternatives is large. Geographic information system (GIS) techniques are applied to process some of the data used in the performance matrix of the MAUT. We specify non-linear marginal utility functions for the criteria. Scenario analyses are also carried out to examine the impact of changes in the weights of the criteria on the utility score of each alternative. The study identifies 10 roads that will yield the highest socio-economic benefits and promote rural accessibility. Finally, the study recommends that decision-makers adopt a similar approach in selecting rural roads for upgrade, instead of selecting roads based on political considerations.

The application of multi-attribute utility theory for a market share-based design evaluation

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to use the concepts of the multi-attribute utility theory to develop a model to evaluate the design of low-density residential units to increase the profit of the company from a certain design, by assessing the changes in the market shares as a result of the built unit’s attributes.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed platform consists of two stages: Stage I or relational model development and Stage II or design evaluation. Stage I is concerned with developing a mathematical model that links design variables (e.g. the R-Value of the building envelope and construction material) with the assessment attributes (e.g. price and carbon emissions). Stage II ensures the fulfillment of the corporation’s goals in maximizing profit and market shares using multi-attribute utility theory.FindingsThe application of the proposed model on a case study – a single-family house – shows that reducing the selling price of the unit is not always the best marketing strategy builders should pursue to increase their sales and accordingly their profit, as accounting for other attributes (e.g. performance, operational cost and environmental impact) leads to larger changes in the market shares and accordingly in profit.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitations of this research are manifested in the following points: it does not account for the impact of the marketing campaigns on the market shares; it considers the profit as a percentage of the construction cost; and it has not been validated on high-density residential buildings.Practical implicationsThis research provides speculative builders with a platform that allows the objective evaluation of houses’ designs prior to introducing them to the market so builders can increase their market shares and consequently their profit. The proposed platform also contributes to increasing the sustainable performance of the housing industry, as it allows for the assessment of the design against economic, environmental and social attributes concurrently, which ensures a balanced consideration of the built houses on sustainability pillars.Social implicationsThe proposed platform for design evaluation extends the assessment attributes beyond the traditionally considered economic and environmental attributes. By doing so, it assists decision-makers in evaluating the potential social influence of the proposed design and, as a result, reduces the unwanted impact.Originality/valueThis research combines the concepts of multi-attribute utility with market studies to develop an objective decision support tool for evaluating the design of speculative houses to increase the sustainable performance of the builders without compromising on their profit.

Hedge Fund Investing or Mutual Fund Investing: An Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory

This paper contrasts high-risk, hedge fund trading, with low-risk, mutual fund trading, in terms of their differing utility functions. We envision hedge funds, led by informed traders who use information to seek out investment opportunities, timing market conditions, with the expectation that prices will move in their favor. Directional hedge funds act to influence prices, while non-directional hedge funds do not act to influence prices. We present utility functions based on steeply-sloping Laplace distributions and hyperbolic cosine distributions, to describe the actions of directional hedge fund traders. Less steeply-sloping lognormal distributions, Coulomb wave functions, quadratic utility functions, and Bessel utility functions are used to describe the investing style of non-directional hedge fund traders. Flatter Legendre utility functions and inverse sine utility functions describe the modest profit-making aspirations of mutual fund traders. The paper’s chief contribution is to develop optimal prices quantitatively, by intersecting utility functions with price distributions. Price distributions for directional hedge fund returns are portrayed as sharp increases and decreases, in the form of jumps, in a discrete arrival Poisson-distributed process. Separate equations are developed for directional hedge fund strategies, including event-driven arbitrage, and global macro strategies. Non-directional strategies include commodity trading, risk-neutral arbitrage, and convertible arbitrage, with primarily lognormal pricing distributions, and some Poisson jumps. Mutual funds are perceived to be Markowitz portfolios, lying on the Capital Market Line, or the International Capital Market Line, tangent to the Efficient Frontier of minimum variance-maximum return portfolios.

Relação entre práticas parentais e marcos do desenvolvimento motor no primeiro ano de vida

INTRODUÇÃO: Os pais são responsáveis por organizar uma variedade de experiências dentro de casa e na comunidade, que favorecem o desenvolvimento infantil. Embora seja importante e amplamente estudado nos diferentes domínios do desenvolvimento, existem poucos estudos sobre a relação entre práticas parentais e o desenvolvimento motor. OBJETIVO: Verificar quais práticas parentais estão mais relacionadas com o desenvolvimento motor no primeiro ano de vida. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal, exploratório, metodologia Apoio Multicritério à Decisão e Correlação de Spearman. Foram aplicados questionários estruturados sobre práticas parentais e marcos do desenvolvimento motor no primeiro ano de vida em 35 pais ou cuidadores de crianças com idade entre 12 a 24 meses. RESULTADOS: Verificou-se que de quatro a seis meses as práticas de não deixar no berço, colocar de pé com apoio, colocar no chão, dar brinquedos variados, apresentaram correlação moderada e inversa com quatro apoios (r= -0,440 p= 0,010), engatinhar (r= -0,418 p= 0,013) e passos (r= -0,397 p= 0,018). Entre seis a doze meses as práticas de não deixar no berço, colocar de pé com apoio, estimular passos, apresentaram correlação moderada e inversa com sentar-se (r= -0,368 p=0,030), sentar-se bem (r= -0,388 p= 0,021), em pé (r=-0,407 p= 0,015) e passos (r= -0,373 p= 0,027). CONCLUSÃO: Foi possível verificar que há relação entre as práticas parentais e o surgimento dos marcos do desenvolvimento motor no primeiro ano de vida, a partir de 4 meses de idade. Aquelas práticas relacionadas com a oferta de material para aprendizagem e liberdade de movimento foram as mais favoráveis.

Network level bridges maintenance planning using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory

Bridge infrastructure managers are facing multiple challenges to improve the availability and serviceability of ageing infrastructure, while the maintenance planning is constrained by budget restrictions. Many research efforts are ongoing, for the last few decades, ranging from development of bridge management system, decision support tools, optimisation models, life cycle cost analysis, etc. Since transport infrastructures are deeply embedded in society, they are not only subject to technical requirements, but are required to meet the requirements of societal and economic developments. Therefore, bridge maintenance planning should accommodate multiple performance goals which need to be quantified by various performance indicators. In this paper, an application of Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) for bridge maintenance planning is illustrated with a case study of bridges from the Netherlands road network. MAUT seeks to optimise multiple objectives by suggesting a trade-off among them and finally assigns a ranking to the considered bridges. Moreover, utility functions of MAUT appropriately account for the involved uncertainty and risk attitude of infrastructure managers. The main contribution of this study is in presenting a proof-of-concept on how MAUT provides a systematic approach to improve the decision-making of maintenance planning by making use of available data, accommodating multiple performance goals, their uncertainty, and preferences of infrastructure managers.

Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life-Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis.

In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) results (LCA-MCDA) as a method of incorporating values of a hypothetical federal acquisition manager into the assessment of risks and benefits of emerging photovoltaic materials. Specifically, we compare adoption of copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) devices with molybdenum back contacts to alternative devices employing graphite or graphene instead of molybdenum. LCA impact results are interpreted alongside benefits of substitution including cost reductions and performance improvements through application of multi-attribute utility theory. To assess the role of uncertainty we apply Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We find that graphene or graphite back contacts outperform molybdenum under most scenarios and assumptions. The use of decision analysis clarifies potential advantages of adopting graphite as a back contact while emphasizing the importance of mitigating conventional impacts of graphene production processes if graphene is used in emerging CZTS devices. Our research further demonstrates that a combination of LCA and MCDA increases the usability of LCA in assessing product sustainability. In particular, this approach identifies the most influential assumptions and data gaps in the analysis and the areas in which either engineering controls or further data collection may be necessary.

Application of multi-attribute utility theory for sustainable energy decisions in commercial buildings

Purpose – Despite substantial advances in technologies enhancing the energy efficiency of buildings, they remain the largest consumers of energy in the USA compared with other sectors. In addition, the current rating systems for sustainable buildings do not reflect all potential energy savings during the design, construction, and occupancy of the built environment. The purpose of this paper is to examine the application of multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) as a framework for quantifying energy decisions made during the design phase of a building construction project. Design/methodology/approach – The MAUT method was applied to a case study, and the results were compared with subjective results from the decision makers. Analysis of the results suggested that MAUT is a decision analysis tool that could aid decision makers in communicating their decision criteria and expectations. Findings – Findings from this research suggest that using an analysis method provides the decision makers with a systematic way to include their concerns and preferences and specific requirements of the project along with the criteria for sustainable energy and the built environment at the same time. Using a multi-criteria, decision-making method provides the decision makers with quantitative information, which facilitates the comparison of alternatives. MAUT enabled the various stakeholders of the project to collaborate on the inputs of the problems and allowed the decision makers to communicate their priorities and expectations more effectively. Originality/value – The findings indicated that MAUT provides stakeholders with a quantitative and holistic approach to decision making in which they can track changes in parameters during the process. The implementation of MAUT as a decision analysis tool in designing construction projects ultimately could lead to better decision making for sustainable building designs.

Coherence and correspondence in engineering design: informing the conversation and connecting with judgment and decision-making research

AbstractI show how the coherence/correspondence distinction can inform the conversation about decision methods for engineering design. Some engineers argue for the application of multi-attribute utility theory while others argue for what they call heuristics. To clarify the differences among methods, I first ask whether each method aims at achieving coherence or correspondence. By analyzing statements in the design literature, I argue that utility theory aims at achieving coherence and heuristics aim at achieving correspondence. Second, I ask if achieving coherence always implies achieving correspondence. It is important to provide an answer because while in design the objective is correspondence, it is difficult to assess it, and coherence that is easier to assess is used as a surrogate. I argue that coherence does not always imply correspondence in design and that this is also the case in problems studied in judgment and decision-making research. Uncovering the conditions under which coherence implies, or does not imply, correspondence is a topic where engineering design and judgment and decision-making research might connect.

A review of methods for capacity identification in Choquet integral based multi-attribute utility theory: Applications of the Kappalab R package

The application of multi-attribute utility theory whose aggregation process is based on the Choquet integral requires the prior identification of a capacity. The main approaches to capacity identification proposed in the literature are reviewed and their advantages and inconveniences are discussed. All the reviewed methods have been implemented within the Kappalab R package. Their application is illustrated on a detailed example.

On the Application of Multiattribute Utility Theory to Models of Choice

Ellsberg (The Quarterly Journal of Economics 75, 643–669 (1961); Risk, Ambiguity and Decision, Garland Publishing (2001)) argued that uncertainty is not reducible to risk. At the center of Ellsberg’s argument lies a thought experiment that has come to be known as the three-color example. It has been observed that a significant number of sophisticated decision makers violate the requirements of subjective expected utility theory when they are confronted with Ellsberg’s three-color example. More generally, such decision makers are in conflict with either the ordering assumption or the independence assumption of subjective expected utility theory. While a clear majority of the theoretical responses to these violations have advocated maintaining ordering while relaxing independence, a persistent minority has advocated abandoning the ordering assumption. The purpose of this paper is to consider a similar dilemma that exists within the context of multiattribute models, where it arises by considering indeterminacy in the weighting of attributes rather than indeterminacy in the determination of probabilities as in Ellsberg’s example.

Quadratic distances for capacity and bi-capacity approximation and identification

The application of multi-attribute utility theory based on the Choquet integral requires the prior identification of a capacity if the utility scale is unipolar, or of a bi-capacity if the utility scale is bipolar. In order to implement a minimum distance principle for capacity or bi-capacity approximation or identification, quadratic distances between capacities and bi-capacities are studied. The proposed approach, consisting in solving a strictly convex quadratic program, has been implemented within the GNU R kappalab package for capacity and nonadditive integral manipulation. Its application is illustrated on two examples.

Multi-Attribute Utility Theory and Adaptive Techniques for Intelligent Web-based Educational Software

This paper describes how the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory can be combined with adaptive techniques to improve individualised teaching in an Intelligent Learning Environment (ILE). The ILE is called Web F-SMILE, it operates over the Web and is meant to help novice users learn basic skills of computer use. Tutoring is dynamically adapted to the individual learner based on the learner modelling component of the system and the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) that is employed to process the information about the user. As a result, MAUT provides a way for the system to select on the fly the best possible advice to be presented to users. Advice is dynamically formed based on adaptive presentation techniques, where adaptation is performed at the content level and adaptive navigation support, which is performed at the link level of the hyperspace of the tutoring system. The adaptivity of learning depends on factors such as the learner’s habits, prior knowledge and skills, which are used as criteria for the application of MAUT in the educational software. In this way, a novel combination of MAUT with adaptive techniques is used for intelligent web-based tutoring.

Original Research: Beliefs and Attitudes of Middle Aged Lesbians About Hysterectomy

Objective: The aim of this study was to identify the beliefs and attitudes of lesbians aged 30–65 years regarding hysterectomy. Design: This qualitative study comprised 12 lesbians in three focus groups, utilizing a semistructured guided discussion technique based on qualitative application of Multiattribute Utility Theory. Participants were chosen to represent various stages of decision making, and women who had undergone a hysterectomy were excluded from the study. Setting: All sessions were conducted in a Houston health clinic serving the lesbian community. Measurements: Transcripts were analyzed using Nonnumerical Unstructured Data Indexing Searching and Theorizing (NUD*IST). Results: Major categories, comprising multiple themes, were perceived outcomes of hysterectomy, help-seeking, and experiences with the physician or with the medical establishment. The lesbians in the study revealed both positive and negative outcomes of hysterectomy on sexuality. Loss associated with hysterectomy was perceived as physical, emotional, and ontological. Partner support emerged as a salient outcome. There were varying attitudes toward the use of hormone replacement following hysterectomy. For the lesbians, being in charge of decisions concerning their bodies was crucial, and they would seek information from a number of sources, including two or more physicians, before making a decision regarding hysterectomy. Although the women reported negative experiences with physicians, these experiences were not related to the physician's gender or sexual orientation. Conclusion: While being sensitive to the needs of lesbian patients, physicians also must keep in mind that hysterectomy is an individual decision.

Multiple risks in multi-objective forest planning: integration and importance

Multiple risks were integrated in multi-objective forest planning with the scenario technique and with an application of multi-attribute utility theory. The sources of risks were divided into three categories: risks related to inventory data, risks arising from unknown future states of nature, and risks associated with the decision maker's preferences. Stochastic models and other procedures for producing scenarios of inventory data, growth rate, mortality and natural regeneration of trees, success of tree planting, timber prices, cost level, and importance of management objectives are described. Some of the models for the scenarios were based on empirical data and obtained from earlier investigations, while others were specified by parameters given by the decision maker. The decision maker's attitude toward risk was integrated in planning via the distribution of a utility index. The utility index was computed from an additive utility function. Cumulative points of the distribution were weighed in a manner reflecting decision maker's risk preferences. The weighed utility index was used as the ultimate criterion when searching for the optimal plan. Optimization was done using a heuristic algorithm. The case study conducted indicated that both risks and attitude toward risks affect the choice of plan; optimal plans produced by a deterministic system were different from the stochastic optima, and a risk-neutral decision maker had optima different from those of risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers. Depending on the decision maker's attitude toward risk, utility losses ranging from 0.1% to 4.5% were to be expected when the deterministic optimum was selected. Implementing a risk-neutral decision maker's optimal plan caused utility losses less than 3.5% for risk-averse and risk-seeking decision makers.

A Multiattribute Utility Analysis of Alternatives for the Disposition of Surplus Weapons-Grade Plutonium

This paper describes an application of multiattribute utility theory to support the selection of a technology for the disposition of surplus weapons-grade plutonium by the Department of Energy (DOE). This analysis evaluated 13 alternatives, examined the sensitivity of the recommendations to the weights and assumptions, and quantified the potential benefit of the simultaneous deployment of several technologies. The measures of performance that were identified through the creation of a hierarchy of objectives helped to organize the information collected during the evaluation process, and the results of the analysis were presented to DOE on several occasions. This analysis supported the final DOE recommendation to pursue a strategy of the parallel development of two of the most preferred technologies.

Public Affairs Decision Making in the U.S. Air Force: An Application of Multiattribute Utility Theory

Public relations decision making by U.S. Air Force public affairs personnel was evaluated by using multiattribute utility theory. Exploratory cluster analysis revealed that only 48% of the decisions adequately fit the public relations excellence criteria of accommodation and long-term relationship building. Fourteen percent of the decisions were based on asymmetrical options with a clear emphasis on leverage for the organization, and 37% of the decisions focused on communication tactics. There was a negative correlation between strength of relationship with the supervisor and preference for symmetrical solutions. Furthermore, female employees reported a weaker relationship with their supervisors than their male counterparts.

Outcome measurement in economic evaluation

Outcome measurement in economic evaluation

Cryptosporidiosis: multiattribute evaluation of six diagnostic methods

Six diagnostic methods (Giemsa staining, Ziehl-Neelsen staining, auramine-rhodamine staining, Sheather's sugar flotation, an indirect immunofluorescence procedure, and a modified concentration-sugar flotation method) for the detection of Cryptosporidium spp. in stool specimens were compared on the following attributes: diagnostic yield, cost to perform each test, ease of handling, and ability to process large numbers of specimens for screening purposes by batching. A rank ordering from least desirable to most desirable was then established for each method by using the study attributes. The process of decision analysis with respect to the laboratory diagnosis of cryptosporidiosis is discussed through the application of multiattribute utility theory to the rank ordering of the study criteria. Within a specific health care setting, a diagnostic facility will be able to calculate its own utility scores for our study attributes. Multiattribute evaluation and analysis are potentially powerful tools in the allocation of resources in the laboratory.

An application of multiattribute utility theory to the planning of emergency medical services

This research considers the problem of relating Emergency Medical Services (EMS) to patient outcome. The hypothesis is that response time alone may be misleading as an EMS performance criterion. This research uses methods for approximating multiattribute utility functions to consider both response time and on-the-scene care. The final result is an optimization problem where the response time and desired personnel requirements are decision variables. These are important inputs in the planning for Emergency Medical Services.

Application of multi-attribute utility theory to measure social preferences for health states.

A four-attribute health state classification system designed to uniquely categorize the health status of all individuals two years of age and over is presented. A social preference function defined over the health state classification system is required. Standard multi-attribute utility theory is investigated for the task, problems are identified and modifications to the standard method are proposed. The modified methods is field tested in a survey research project involving 112 home interviews. Results are presented and discussed in detail for both the social preference function and the performance of the modified method. A recommended social preference function is presented, complete with a range of uncertainty. The modified method is found to be applicable to the task--no insurmountable difficulties are encountered. Recommendations are presented, based on our experience, for other investigators who may be interested in reapplying the method in other studies.