Application Of Ecological Niche Modeling Research Articles

Climatic envelopes of the genus Lacerta Linnaeus, 1758 in Türkiye: an application of ecological niche modeling.

Six species belonging to the genus Lacerta live in Türkiye. In this study, both present and future potential distribution maps were created based on occurrence data and climatic variables for these six species. Two scenarios for future projections (shared socioeconomic pathways, SSPs,: 245 and 585) and two timeframes (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) were used. The present and future potential distributions of these species were compared. As a result, it was predicted that the distribution ranges in the six species will expand in the future, and this expansion has revealed new environments.

Assessment of Potential Distribution of <I>Dipterocarpus turbinatus</I> C.f. Gaertn in Mahananda Wildlife Sanctuary of Darjeeling District, North Bengal through MaxEnt Model

The prospective application of ecological niche modeling can be seen in this study, which maps the potential distribution of Dipterocarpus turbinatus , one of the indigenous tree species in the Mahananda Wildlife Sanctuary. This study has also tested the efficiency of the MaxEnt model whether it has given accurate and précised result about the species distribution. In study area Mahananda Wildlife Sanctuary, Data was collected for multiple sample points at different location using GPS of the target species namely Dipterocarpus turbinatus (Garjan) over the entire Mahananda Wildlife Sanctuary area. The South-Western region of the study area has shown the higher potential, followed by the South-Eastern and Northern region. The prediction ranges from 0 to 1, 0 suggesting no potential for the occurrence and 1 shows high potential for the occurrence of the Dipterocarpus turbinatus . The North-Western region followed by Eastern region has shown the minimum support for the distribution of the Dipterocarpus turbinatus . Potential distribution of the Dipterocarpus turbinatus was predicted by MaxEnt model which involved multiple predictor variables like bioclimatic variables, elevation, slope, soil, LULC, and human influence index, where the maximum contribution of elevation was 39.1% having 14.2 % followed by Human Influence Index and soil 12.7% contribution respectively.

HydroClim Data Portal: Cyberinfrastructure for providing high-resolution GIS modeled streamflow and water temperature data to researchers

Freshwater ecosystems play a key role in sustaining aquatic biodiversity. However, human alterations to watersheds and climate change are reducing critical habitat and the viability of populations of many aquatic species. The environmental changes have also had significant adverse impacts on water temperatures and streamflow. The changes in temperature and precipitation forecast over the next century are expected to affect the freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity to an even greater extent than in the past. The aims of the HydroClim project are to provide openly accessible data on two key measures of stream conditions in the United States (US) and Canada for use in research, to increase public understanding of issues involving water resources, and to provide training opportunities for scientists who will be responsible for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity in the future. The project has used contemporary air temperature and precipitation data and future climate data from multiple Global Climate Model scenarios to generated high-resolution, spatially explicit, monthly streamflow and water temperature data for all watersheds across the US and Canada from 1950–2099 through multiple Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic models. This presentation describes a cyberinfrastructure we developed for hosting the HydroClim data, consisting of a relational database and a web-based data portal that allows scientists to query and download the data. We have imported almost 1.9 billion HydroClim data records into the system. At the time of this submission, 1.3 billion records of historical data and predicted streamflow and water temperature model data are available in the HydroClim data portal for 26 watersheds in the United States. The HydroClim data are also being integrated with fish occurrence data from Fishnet 2, via the Fishnet 2 API (Application Programming Interface), which provides occurence data records for over 4.1 million species lots representing over 40 million specimens in ichthyological research collections. Our plan is to extract and merge environmental data from Hydroclim API, with fish occurrences containing geospatial information from the Fishnet 2 API, displaying the integrated data on web-based interactive hydrological maps in different time-series, and providing a tool for visualizing ecosystem diversity. The combined Hydroclim and Fishnet2 data can be used for ecological niche modeling applications, such as predicting the future distribution of threatened and endangered freshwater fish species. I will describe the cyberinfrastructure of HydroClim data portal and some of the ways the data can be used in biodiverisity research in the future.

Analysis of the application of ecological niche modeling in phylogeographic studies: contributions, challenges, and future

The combined application of ecological niche modeling in phylogeographic studies has contributed to better understanding the relationship between the patterns of genetic variation of species and the abiotic conditions where their populations have evolved. This has allowed broadening and strengthening the spectrum of phylogeographic questions and hypotheses to be tested, based on the increasing availability of data, algorithms, and models. However, when these two approaches are combined, some of their limitations are also added, despite taking advantage of their strengths. This review explores some of the latest contributions of this application. We found that 44 % of the studies reviewed address the effect of the environment on the diversification and structure of lineages; 20 % of the models concern mammals and 27 %, reptiles; and 34 % of the articles addressed the biota of the Nearctic region. This review also explores the most important challenges and future perspectives resulting from this synergy.

An evaluation of transferability of ecological niche models

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is used widely to study species’ geographic distributions. ENM applications frequently involve transferring models calibrated with environmental data from one region to other regions or times that may include novel environmental conditions. When novel conditions are present, transferability implies extrapolation, whereas, in absence of such conditions, transferability is an interpolation step only. We evaluated transferability of models produced using 11 ENM algorithms from the perspective of interpolation and extrapolation in a virtual species framework. We defined fundamental niches and potential distributions of 16 virtual species distributed across Eurasia. To simulate real situations of incomplete understanding of species’ distribution or existing fundamental niche (environmental conditions suitable for the species contained in the study area; N* F ), we divided Eurasia into six regions and used 1–5 regions for model calibration and the rest for model evaluation. The models produced with the 11 ENM algorithms were evaluated in environmental space, to complement the traditional geographic evaluation of models. None of the algorithms accurately estimated the existing fundamental niche (N* F ) given one region in calibration, and model evaluation scores decreased as the novelty of the environments in the evaluation regions increased. Thus, we recommend quantifying environmental similarity between calibration and transfer regions prior to model transfer, providing an avenue for assessing uncertainty of model transferability. Different algorithms had different sensitivity to completeness of knowledge of N* F , with implications for algorithm selection. If the goal is to reconstruct fundamental niches, users should choose algorithms with limited extrapolation when N* F is well known, or choose algorithms with increased extrapolation when N* F is poorly known. Our assessment can inform applications of ecological niche modeling transference to anticipate species invasions into novel areas, disease emergence in new regions, and forecasts of species distributions under future climate conditions.

Comparative analysis of remotely-sensed data products via ecological niche modeling of avian influenza case occurrences in Middle Eastern poultry

BackgroundEcological niche modeling integrates known sites of occurrence of species or phenomena with data on environmental variation across landscapes to infer environmental spaces potentially inhabited (i.e., the ecological niche) to generate predictive maps of potential distributions in geographic space. Key inputs to this process include raster data layers characterizing spatial variation in environmental parameters, such as vegetation indices from remotely sensed satellite imagery. The extent to which ecological niche models reflect real-world distributions depends on a number of factors, but an obvious concern is the quality and content of the environmental data layers.MethodsWe assessed ecological niche model predictions of H5N1 avian flu presence quantitatively within and among four geographic regions, based on models incorporating two means of summarizing three vegetation indices derived from the MODIS satellite. We evaluated our models for predictive ability using partial ROC analysis and GLM ANOVA to compare performance among indices and regions.ResultsWe found correlations between vegetation indices to be high, such that they contain information that overlaps broadly. Neither the type of vegetation index used nor method of summary affected model performance significantly. However, the degree to which model predictions had to be transferred (i.e., projected onto landscapes and conditions not represented on the landscape of training) impacted predictive strength greatly (within-region model predictions far out-performed models projected among regions).ConclusionOur results provide the first quantitative tests of most appropriate uses of different remotely sensed data sets in ecological niche modeling applications. While our testing did not result in a decisive "best" index product or means of summarizing indices, it emphasizes the need for careful evaluation of products used in modeling (e.g. matching temporal dimensions and spatial resolution) for optimum performance, instead of simple reliance on large numbers of data layers.

Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test.

Climate Change and Biodiversity: Some Considerations in Forecasting Shifts in Species' Potential Distributions

Global climate change and its broad spectrum of effects on human and natural systems has become a central research topic in recent years; biodiversity informatics tools?particularly ecological niche modeling (ENM)?have been used extensively to anticipate potential effects on geographic distributions of species. Misuse of these tools, however, is counterproductive, as biased conclusions might be reached. In this paper, I discuss some issues related to niche theory, geographic distributions, data quality, and algorithms, all of which are relevant when using ENM in climate change projections for biodiversity. This assortment of opinions and ideas is presented in the hope that ENM applications to climate change questions can be made more realistic and more predictive.

Predicting the Distribution of the Amphibian Pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in the New World1

ABSTRACTOne application of ecological niche modeling is predicting suitable areas for the establishment of invasive species. Herein, I model the fundamental niche of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogen linked to amphibian declines on several continents. Niche models were generated with the Genetic Algorithm of Rule‐Set Prediction using point distribution data of the pathogen and digital maps of environmental variables integrated in a GIS environment. The distribution of regions suitable for B. dendrobatidis in the New World is extensive and includes significant portions of: (1) Sierra Madre Occidental pine‐oak forest; (2) Sonoran and Sinaloan dry forest; (3) Veracruz moist forest; (4) Central America east from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec; (5) Caribbean Islands; (6) temperate forest in Chile and western Argentina south of latitude 30°S; (7) Andes above 1000 m of altitude in Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador; (8) eastern slopes of the Andes in Peru and Bolivia; (9) Brazilian Atlantic forest; (10) Uruguay, Paraguay, and northeastern Argentina; (11) southwestern and Madeira‐Tapajós Amazonian tropical rainforests. The regions with the highest suitability for B. dendrobatidis include habitats that contain the world's most diverse amphibian faunas. Models were built with New World localities, but also showed strong predictability for B. dendrobatidis localities in the Old World. Out of a total of 59 reported Old World localities for B. dendrobatidis, 56 occurred within regions with high predicted suitability. I also present analyses of the environmental envelope of B. dendrobatidis and discuss the implications of the results for the conservation of amphibians in the neotropics.