Application Of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Research Articles

Bitcoin Price and Miner Behavior an Application of ARDL Model

Bitcoin price volatility has always been a hot topic in the economic world as well as the academia, and many researchers have explored the price dynamic formation from different aspects. This study employs the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to explain the bitcoin price formation from the perspective of miners hoarding behavior.

Commitment to capital raising for venture capital funds in India: An Application of ARDL Model

Venture capitalists (VCs) áourish on the ability to add funds to their kitty across nations. Consequently, VCsíability to convince Limited Partners (LP), who are their primary source of Önancing, plays a critical role in the venture capital investment growth in any economy. However, it is not easy to rake in capital from an investor. LPs assess the market conditions carefully before making their capital available to the VCs. This paper examines the macro-economic variables that ináuence the supply of money to venture capital funds in emerging economies such as India from an LPs perspective. The empirical analysis using Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach reveals that supply of capital to the VC funds in India is ináuenced by macro variables as well as past investment behaviours. Macro-variables such as GDP growth, interest rate spread, global liquidity, and ináation rate signiÖcantly ináuence the supply of capital to the VC funds in India. However, stock market liquidity does not ináuence the supply side of the venture capital investment. Our analysis reveals that VCsífund raising in India is highly ináuenced by their past investment relation with the LPs.

Impact of Import and Export on GDP of Egypt: Application of ARDL Model

This paper examines the applications of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in the analysis of Egypt’s import and export data concerning the consequential impacts on the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 1980 to 2010 years. Given that exports and imports significantly impact the economic status of Egypt through the balance of payment, it is therefore vital for policymakers to adequately comprehend and understand the factors affecting the revenue of the country’s economy. The study provides a wide range of elasticity estimates made from the data collected in the field. Moreover, this paper seeks to examine the current estimated import and export demand function for Egypt by employing the ARDL approach using the Eviews program. The results from ARDL approach analysis agrees with the hypothesis that Egypt has a long run relationship with export, import demand, economic growth prices of exports and imports, and volatility of an actual effective exchange rate in the market. Therefore, the imports and exports in Egypt are affected by the country’s GDP. Hence it is growth driven.

Analysis of Government Expenditure and Sectoral Employment in the Post-apartheid South Africa: Application of ARDL Model

The current study has been designed to analyse the interactions between real government spending and job creation in South Africa focusing on five major economic sectors, namely construction, financial, manufacturing, mining, and retail sectors. The main objective of the study was to determine how job creation in different economic sectors responds to changes in real government spending. To achieve this objective, the study used five different autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to analyse the long-run and shot-run relationships between government spending and employment rate in each of the aforementioned five economic sectors. The sample period consisted of quarterly observations starting from the first quarter of 1994 to last quarter of 2015. The study found a long-run relationship between government spending and job creation in the mining sector but there was no evidence of long-run relationships between government spending and jobs creation in construction, financial, manufacturing, and retail sectors. The short-run analysis showed that government spending could create jobs in all five sectors. This paper concluded that increasing government spending can only create short-term jobs but does not create lasting jobs in most sectors, except the mining sector. To increase the number of durable jobs, the South African government should therefore increase spending on mining sector.

Analysis of Government Expenditure and Sectoral Employment in the Post-apartheid South Africa: Application of ARDL Model

The current study has been designed to analyse the interactions between real government spending and job creation in South Africa focusing on five major economic sectors, namely construction, financial, manufacturing, mining, and retail sectors. The main objective of the study was to determine how job creation in different economic sectors responds to changes in real government spending. To achieve this objective, the study used five different autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to analyse the long-run and shot-run relationships between government spending and employment rate in each of the aforementioned five economic sectors. The sample period consisted of quarterly observations starting from the first quarter of 1994 to last quarter of 2015. The study found a long-run relationship between government spending and job creation in the mining sector but there was no evidence of long-run relationships between government spending and jobs creation in construction, financial, manufacturing, and retail sectors. The short-run analysis showed that government spending could create jobs in all five sectors. This paper concluded that increasing government spending can only create short-term jobs but does not create lasting jobs in most sectors, except the mining sector. To increase the number of durable jobs, the South African government should therefore increase spending on mining sector.

The Distributive Effects of Joining the Global Economy in Iran: the Application of ARDL Model

In this paper the relationship between globalization and distribution of income in Iran with using of time series data over 1977-2007 is investigated. For this purpose, we used Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and long-run and short-run relations between involved variables in model are considered. The trade intensity index is used as measure of globalization. Results indicated that, there is long-run relationship and co-integration between involved variables and the Gini coefficient. Furthermore, accompanied by other variables globalization, has a positive and significant effect on dependent variable. Value of error correction coefficient is equal to -0.90 and statistically significant and suggests a high speed of convergence to equilibrium.