Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk Research Articles

Inflammatory Biomarkers and Risk of Psychiatric Disorders

Individuals with psychiatric disorders have been reported to have elevated levels of inflammatory biomarkers, and prospective evidence is limited regarding the association between inflammatory biomarkers and subsequent psychiatric disorders risk. To assess the associations between inflammation biomarkers and subsequent psychiatric disorders risk. This was a prospective cohort study including individuals from the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort, with no prior psychiatric diagnoses and having a measurement of at least 1 inflammatory biomarker. Data from the UK Biobank were used for validation. Longitudinal trajectories of studied biomarkers were visualized before diagnosis of psychiatric disorders in the AMORIS cohort via a nested case-control study. In addition, genetic correlation and mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted to determine the genetic overlap and causality of the studied associations using publicly available GWAS summary statistics. Inflammatory biomarkers, eg, leukocytes, haptoglobin, immunoglobulin G (IgG), C-reactive protein (CRP), platelets, or albumin. Any psychiatric disorder or specific psychiatric disorder (ie, depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders) was identified through the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Eighth, Ninth, and Tenth Revision codes. Among the 585 279 individuals (mean [SD] age, 45.5 [14.9] years; 306 784 male [52.4%]) in the AMORIS cohort, individuals with a higher than median level of leukocytes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11; 95% CI, 1.09-1.14), haptoglobin (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.12-1.14), or CRP (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04) had an elevated associated risk of any psychiatric disorders. In contrast, we found an inverse association for IgG level (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.89-0.94). The estimates were comparable for depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders, specifically, and these results were largely validated in the UK Biobank (n = 485 620). Analyses of trajectories revealed that individuals with psychiatric disorders had higher levels of leukocytes and haptoglobin and a lower level of IgG than their controls up to 30 years before the diagnosis. The MR analysis suggested a possible causal relationship between leukocytes and depression. In this cohort study, inflammatory biomarkers including leukocytes, haptoglobin, CRP, and IgG were associated with a subsequent risk of psychiatric disorders, and thus might be used for high-risk population identification. The possible causal link between leukocytes and depression supports the crucial role of inflammation in the development of psychiatric disorders.

Elevated Uric Acid Is Associated With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation: Results From the Swedish AMORIS Cohort.

Background The role of uric acid is gaining increasing importance in the evaluation of cardiovascular disease, but its relationship with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. This study aims to investigate the association between uric acid levels and risk of new-onset AF. Methods and Results A total of 339 604 individuals 30 to 60 years of age and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline (1985-1996) in the Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-Mortality Risk) cohort were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF. Cox regression models were used to examine the association between uric acid and AF, adjusting for potential confounders and stratifying by incident cardiovascular disease. Over a mean follow-up of 25.9 years, 46 516 incident AF cases occurred. Compared with the lowest uric acid quartile, each of the upper 3 quartiles were associated with an increased risk of AF in a dose-response manner. Adjusted hazard ratios were 1.09 (95% CI, 1.06-1.12) for second quartile, 1.19 (95% CI, 1.16-1.23) for third quartile, and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.41-1.49) for fourth quartile. The association was similar among individuals with and without incident hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, or coronary heart disease. The dose-response pattern was further supported in a subsample of individuals with repeated measurements of uric acid. Conclusions Elevated uric acid was associated with an increased risk of AF, not only among people with cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors but also among those without. Future investigations are needed to examine whether lowering uric acid is relevant for AF prevention.

Serum Total Bilirubin and Risk of Cancer: A Swedish Cohort Study and Meta-Analysis.

Simple SummarySeveral studies published to date have shown inconclusive results in the association between serum bilirubin and risk of site-specific cancer types and overall cancer. Therefore, there is a need to further investigate this association. Data from the large Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort study was used. We found that overall high levels of bilirubin had no association with overall cancer risk. However, a positive association was found between melanoma and breast cancer risk. On the other hand, an inverse association was found between high levels of bilirubin and risk of gynecological and lung cancers. Further studies are required to establish if bilirubin can be used as a biomarker for risk assessment and/or as a novel therapeutic target.Bilirubin has strong antioxidant properties that have been hypothesized to be preventive against the development of cancer. Thus, we aimed to investigate the association between serum total bilirubin (STB) and risk of overall and site-specific cancers in the large Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort. We also performed a systematic review and meta-analysis for specific cancer types (colorectal, breast and lung). We found no association between high levels of STB and risk of overall cancer. Regarding site-specific cancer, there was an inverse association between increased STB and lung cancer (Hazard Ratio (HR) for the 4th quartile (Q4) vs. Q1: 0.50; 95%CI: 0.44–0.59) and gynecological cancer (HR for Q4 vs. Q1: 0.86; 95%CI: 0.76–0.99). A positive association was found with melanoma (HR for Q4 vs. Q1: 1.25; 95%CI: 1.06–1.47) and breast cancer (HR for Q4 vs. Q1: 1.13; 95%CI: 1.01–1.25) risk. The meta-analysis showed an inverse association between high levels of STB and risk of lung cancer (Relative risk (RR): 0.69; 95%CI: 0.55–0.86). No associations were seen for colorectal and breast cancer risk. Further studies are required to establish if bilirubin can be used as a biomarker for risk assessment and/or as a novel therapeutic target.

Blood-Based Biomarkers and Long-term Risk of Frailty-Experience From the Swedish AMORIS Cohort.

BackgroundFrailty is associated with reduced quality of life, poor health outcomes, and death. Past studies have investigated how specific biomarkers are associated with frailty but understanding biomarkers in concert with each other and the associated risk of frailty is critical for clinical application.MethodsUsing a sample aged ≥59 years at baseline from the Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk) cohort (n = 19 341), with biomarkers measured at baseline (1985–1996), we conducted latent class analysis with 18 biomarkers and used Cox models to determine the association between class and frailty and all-cause mortality.ResultsFour classes were identified. Compared to the largest class, the Reference class (81.7%), all other classes were associated with increased risk of both frailty and mortality. The Anemia class (5.8%), characterized by comparatively lower iron markers and higher inflammatory markers, had hazard ratio (HR) = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.38, 1.73 for frailty and HR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.65, 1.87 for mortality. The Diabetes class (6.5%) was characterized by higher glucose and fructosamine, and had HR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.43, 1.77 for frailty and HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.64, 1.85 for mortality. Finally, the Liver class (6.0%), characterized by higher liver enzyme levels, had HR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.01, 1.30 for frailty and HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.31, 1.50 for mortality. Sex-stratified analyses did not show any substantial differences between men and women.ConclusionsDistinct sets of commonly available biomarkers were associated with development of frailty and monitoring these biomarkers in patients may allow for earlier detection and possible prevention of frailty, with the potential for improved quality of life.

A Dynamic Aspartate-to-Alanine Aminotransferase Ratio Provides Valid Predictions of Incident Severe Liver Disease.

The aspartate‐to‐alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR) is associated with liver fibrosis, but its predictive performance is suboptimal. We hypothesized that the association between AAR and liver disease depends on absolute transaminase levels and developed and validated a model to predict liver‐related outcomes in the general population. A Cox regression model based on age, AAR, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level (dynamic AAR [dAAR]) using restricted cubic splines was developed in Finnish population‐based health‐examination surveys (FINRISK, 2002‐2012; n = 18,067) with linked registry data for incident liver‐related hospitalizations, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver death. The model was externally validated for liver‐related outcomes in a Swedish population cohort (Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk [AMORIS] subcohort; n = 126,941) and for predicting outcomes and/or prevalent fibrosis/cirrhosis in biopsied patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), chronic hepatitis C, or alcohol‐related liver disease (ALD). The dynamic AAR model predicted liver‐related outcomes both overall (optimism‐corrected C‐statistic, 0.81) and in subgroup analyses of the FINRISK cohort and identified persons with >10% risk for liver‐related outcomes within 10 years. In independent cohorts, the C‐statistic for predicting liver‐related outcomes up to a 10‐year follow‐up was 0.72 in the AMORIS cohort, 0.81 in NAFLD, and 0.75 in ALD. Area‐under‐the‐curve (AUC) for detecting prevalent cirrhosis was 0.80‐0.83 in NAFLD, 0.80 in hepatitis C, but only 0.71 in ALD. In ALD, model performance improved when using aspartate aminotransferase instead of ALT in the model (C‐statistic, 0.84 for outcome; AUC, 0.82 for prevalent cirrhosis). Conclusion: A dAAR score provides prospective predictions for the risk of incident severe liver outcomes in the general population and helps detect advanced liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. The dAAR score could potentially be used for screening the unselected general population and as a trigger for further liver evaluations.

Elevated Apolipoprotein B/A-1 Ratio is Associated With an Increased Risk of Aortic Stenosis: Experience From the AMORIS Cohort

Lipoproteins are associated with acquired aortic valve stenosis (AS). This study investigated whether an elevated apolipoprotein (apo)B/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased risk of AS and if this association was influenced by a history of a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) defined as stroke, myocardial infarction or revascularisation. A study was undertaken of 131,816 individuals, aged ≥30 years, from the Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk (AMORIS) cohort, with measurements of apolipoproteins B and A-1 at health examinations during 1985-1996. There were fewer women and the average age was 4 years older in the highest apoB/apoA-1 quintile compared with the lowest. Being overweight, having reduced renal function and diabetes mellitus were more frequent. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride and apolipoprotein B levels were higher in the top apoB/apoA-1 quintile. During follow-up through 2011, non-rheumatic aortic valve disease was diagnosed in 2,999 individuals (2.3%). Using ICD-10 codes from 1997, AS was identified in 1,887 patients. An elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased incidence of aortic valve disease after multivariable adjustment [hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) for the fifth vs first quintile of 1.28 (1.09-1.50)]. Restricting the analyses to incident AS during 1997-2011 yielded an HR of 1.41 (1.15-1.72). This increased incidence was primarily seen in women and individuals aged ≥65 years. History of MACE did not influence these associations. An elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio was associated with an increased incidence of AS, particularly in women and individuals aged ≥65 years, regardless of previous MACE.

Ability of Noninvasive Scoring Systems to Identify Individuals in the Population at Risk for Severe Liver Disease

Noninvasive scoring systems are used to identify persons with advanced liver fibrosis. We investigated the ability of scoring systems to identify individuals in the general population at risk for future liver-related events. We collected data from the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk cohort on persons 35 to 79 years old who had blood samples collected from 1985 through 1996. We collected APRI (n= 127,302), BARD (n= 75,303), FIB-4 (n= 126,941), Forns (n= 122,419), and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis scores (NFS, n= 13,160). We ascertained incident cases of cirrhosis or complications by linking Swedish health data registers. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for severe liver disease at 5, 10, and a maximum follow-up time of 27 years. The predictive ability of the scores was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and C-statistics analyses. Our specific aims were to investigate the predictive capabilities of scoring systems for fatal and nonfatal liver disease, determine whichscoring system has the highest level of accuracy, and investigate the predictive abilities of the scoring systems in persons with a higher probability of NAFLD at baseline. A similar proportion of individuals evaluated by each scoring system developed cirrhosis or complications thereof (1.0%-1.4%). The incidence of any outcome was increased in intermediate- and high-risk groups compared with low-risk groups, with HRs at 10 years in the high-risk group ranging from 1.67 for the BARD score to 45.9 for the APRI score. The predictive abilities of all scoring systems decreased with time and were higher in men. All scoring systems were more accurate in persons with risk factors for NAFLD at baseline, with AUROCs reaching 0.83. Higher scores from noninvasive scoring systems to evaluate fibrosis are associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis in a general population, but their predictive ability is modest. Performance was better when patientswere followed for shorter time periods and in persons with a higher risk of NAFLD, with AUROC values reaching 0.83. New scoring systems are needed to evaluate risk of fibrosis in the general population and in primary care.

Serum immunoglobulin levels and the risk of bladder cancer in the AMORIS Cohort

BackgroundThe anti-tumour T-cell response in bladder cancer has been shown to correlate with response to treatment and prognosis. However, little is known about the role of humoral immunity in this highly immunogenic human cancer, which is characterised by a high mutation-associated neoantigen load and a strong response to immunotherapy. In the present study, we interrogated the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk Study (AMORIS) to explore the relationship between pre-diagnostic serum immunoglobulin levels and the risk of developing bladder cancer. MethodsOur analysis included all AMORIS participants aged 20 years or older, who had all three major serum immunoglobulins (IgA, IgM, IgG) recorded at the same baseline measurement (n = 29,876). All participants were free from bladder cancer at the time of measurement. Samples were obtained between 1985–1996, with follow-up information until 2011. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the association between bladder cancer risk and different levels of pre-diagnostic serum immunoglobulins. ResultsDuring a mean follow-up period of 15.31 years, 163 (0.5%) individuals were diagnosed with bladder cancer. Multivariate Cox regression showed an inverse association between pre-diagnostic serum IgM levels ≥ 1.4 g/L and bladder cancer risk compared to serum IgM levels < 1.4 g/L [HR: 0.68 (95% CI 0.45–1.03)]. Corresponding associations could not be established for serum IgA or IgG. ConclusionOur findings implicate serum IgM in the pathogenesis of bladder cancer and suggest that the concept of humoral immune surveillance against cancer warrants further mechanistic investigation.

Metabolic profiles to predict long-term cancer and mortality: the use of latent class analysis

BackgroundMetabolites are genetically and environmentally determined. Consequently, they can be used to characterize environmental exposures and reveal biochemical mechanisms that link exposure to disease. To explore disease susceptibility and improve population risk stratification, we aimed to identify metabolic profiles linked to carcinogenesis and mortality and their intrinsic associations by characterizing subgroups of individuals based on serum biomarker measurements. We included 13,615 participants from the Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk Study who had measurements for 19 biomarkers representative of central metabolic pathways. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was applied to characterise individuals based on their biomarker values (according to medical cut-offs), which were then examined as predictors of cancer and death using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsLCA identified four metabolic profiles within the population: (1) normal values for all markers (63% of population); (2) abnormal values for lipids (22%); (3) abnormal values for liver functioning (9%); (4) abnormal values for iron and inflammation metabolism (6%). All metabolic profiles (classes 2–4) increased risk of cancer and mortality, compared to class 1 (e.g. HR for overall death was 1.26 (95% CI: 1.16–1.37), 1.67 (95% CI: 1.47–1.90), and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.05–1.41) for class 2, 3, and 4, respectively).ConclusionWe present an innovative approach to risk stratify a well-defined population based on LCA metabolic-defined subgroups for cancer and mortality. Our results indicate that standard of care baseline serum markers, when assembled into meaningful metabolic profiles, could help assess long term risk of disease and provide insight in disease susceptibility and etiology.

Baseline serum folate, vitamin B12 and the risk of prostate and breast cancer using data from the Swedish AMORIS cohort

PurposeThe roles of folate and vitamin B12 in prostate cancer (PCa) or breast cancer (BC) development are unclear. We investigated their roles using the prospective Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk (AMORIS) study.Methods8,783 men and 19,775 women with vitamin B12 and folate serum measurements were included. Their associations with PCa and BC risk categories were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsDuring mean follow-up of 13 years, 703 men developed PCa. There was an inverse association between folate > 32 nmol/L and high-risk PCa [hazard ratio (HR) 0.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02–0.90], and a positive association between folate < 5 nmol/L and metastatic PCa (HR 5.25, 95% CI 1.29–21.41), compared with folate 5–32 nmol/L. No associations with vitamin B12 were found. 795 women developed BC during mean follow-up of 14 years. When restricting to the fasting population, there was a positive association between folate > 32 nmol/L and BC (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.06–2.04).ConclusionHigh folate levels may protect against PCa and low folate levels may increase risk of metastatic PCa. High fasting folate levels may be associated with an increased BC risk. Vitamin B12 was not found to be linked with risk of PCa or BC. Longitudinal studies with serum and dietary information could help define new prevention targets and add information on the role of folate fortification.

Serum immunoglobulin levels and the risk of bladder cancer in the AMORIS Cohort

Abstract Background The anti-tumour T-cell response in bladder cancer has been shown to correlate with response to treatment and prognosis. However, little is known about the role of humoral immunity in this highly immunogenic human cancer, which is characterised by a high mutation-associated neoantigen load and a strong response to immunotherapy. In the present study, we interrogated the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk Study (AMORIS) to explore the relationship between pre-diagnostic serum immunoglobulin levels and the risk of developing bladder cancer. Methods Our analysis included all AMORIS participants aged 20 years or older, who had all three major serum immunoglobulins (IgA, IgM, IgG) recorded at the same baseline measurement (n = 29,876). All participants were free from bladder cancer at the time of measurement. Samples were obtained between 1985–1996, with follow-up information until 2011. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the association between bladder cancer risk and different levels of pre-diagnostic serum immunoglobulins. Results During a mean follow-up period of 15.31 years, 163 (0.5%) individuals were diagnosed with bladder cancer. Multivariate Cox regression showed an inverse association between pre-diagnostic serum IgM levels ≥ 1.4 g/L and bladder cancer risk compared to serum IgM levels Conclusion Our findings implicate serum IgM in the pathogenesis of bladder cancer and suggest that the concept of humoral immune surveillance against cancer warrants further mechanistic investigation.

Associations between prediagnostic blood glucose levels, diabetes, and glioma

Previous literature indicates that pre-diagnostic diabetes and blood glucose levels are inversely related to glioma risk. To replicate these findings and determine whether they could be attributed to excess glucose consumption by the preclinical tumour, we used data from the Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk (AMORIS) (n = 528,580) and the Metabolic syndrome and Cancer project (Me-Can) cohorts (n = 269,365). We identified individuals who were followed for a maximum of 15 years after their first blood glucose test until glioma diagnosis, death, emigration or the end of follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and their interactions with time were estimated using Cox time-dependent regression. As expected, pre-diagnostic blood glucose levels were inversely related to glioma risk (AMORIS, Ptrend = 0.002; Me-Can, Ptrend = 0.04) and pre-diagnostic diabetes (AMORIS, HR = 0.30, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.53). During the year before diagnosis, blood glucose was inversely associated with glioma in the AMORIS (HR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.93) but not the Me-Can cohort (HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.56). This AMORIS result is consistent with our hypothesis that excess glucose consumption by the preclinical tumour accounts for the inverse association between blood glucose and glioma. We discuss additional hypothetical mechanisms that may explain our paradoxical findings.

Glucose and lipoprotein biomarkers and breast cancer severity using data from the Swedish AMORIS cohort

BackgroundThe lipid and glucose metabolisms are postulated as possible intermediary mechanisms in linking obesity and breast cancer (BC). Links between serum lipid and glucose biomarkers and BC risk has been observed in the Swedish Apolipoprotein MORtality RISk (AMORIS) cohort. We conducted a follow-up analysis including information on tumour characteristics.MethodsOne thousand eight hundred twenty-four women diagnosed with BC, with serum biomarker levels of glucose, triglycerides, cholesterol (total, HDL, and LDL), and apolipoproteins A-1 and B recorded in a routine health check at baseline were included. BC severity was split into categories (good, moderate, and poor prognosis) based on ER status, TNM stage, and age at diagnosis. Proportional odds models were used to obtain odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), with the interval time between baseline measurement and BC diagnosis accounted for.ResultsSerum glucose and the ApoB/ApoA-1 ratio showed a non-statistically significant positive association with BC severity (proportional OR: 1.25 (95%CI: 0.92–1.70) for glucose (</≥ 5.60 mmol/L) and 1.31 (95%CI: 0.97–1.76) for ApoB/A-1 ratio (</≥ 1). The proportion of severe and moderate BC was modestly greater across all abnormal serum biomarker groups.ConclusionsDespite the size and detail of data in AMORIS, we only found a modest positive association between serum levels of glucose, apoB/ApoA-1 and BC severity, suggesting that these factors are not the main players in linking obesity and BC aggressiveness.

A latent class model for competing risks

Survival data analysis becomes complex when the proportional hazards assumption is violated at population level or when crude hazard rates are no longer estimators of marginal ones. We develop a Bayesian survival analysis method to deal with these situations, on the basis of assuming that the complexities are induced by latent cohort or disease heterogeneity that is not captured by covariates and that proportional hazards hold at the level of individuals. This leads to a description from which risk-specific marginal hazard rates and survival functions are fully accessible, 'decontaminated' of the effects of informative censoring, and which includes Cox, random effects and latent class models as special cases. Simulated data confirm that our approach can map a cohort's substructure and remove heterogeneity-induced informative censoring effects. Application to data from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men cohort leads to plausible alternative explanations for previous counter-intuitive inferences on prostate cancer. The importance of managing cardiovascular disease as a comorbidity in women diagnosed with breast cancer is suggested on application to data from the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk Study. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Serum Calcium and the Risk of Breast Cancer: Findings from the Swedish AMORIS Study and a Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies.

To investigate the association between serum calcium and risk of breast cancer using a large cohort and a systematic review with meta-analysis. From the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) Study we included 229,674 women who had baseline measurements of serum total calcium and albumin. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the association between total and albumin-corrected calcium and breast cancer risk. For the systematic review, an electronic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE databases was performed to identify other prospective cohorts assessing the relationship between serum calcium and breast cancer risk. We pooled the results of our AMORIS cohort with other eligible studies in a meta-analysis using a random effects model. I2 test was used to assess heterogeneity. In the AMORIS study, 10,863 women were diagnosed with breast cancer (mean follow-up: 19 years). We found an inverse association between total serum calcium and breast cancer when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile (HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.88–0.99, p value for trend 0.04) and similar results using albumin-corrected calcium. In the systematic review, we identified another two prospective cohorts evaluating pre-diagnostic serum total calcium and breast cancer. Combining these studies and our findings in AMORIS in a meta-analysis showed a protective effect of serum calcium against breast cancer, with a summary RR of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.66–0.97). No substantial heterogeneity was observed. Our findings in AMORIS and the meta-analysis support an inverse association between serum calcium and breast cancer risk, which warrants mechanistic investigations.

Association between prediagnostic glucose, triglycerides, cholesterol and meningioma, and reverse causality.

Background:Although meningioma is a benign tumour, it may cause significant morbidity. Obesity and diabetes are positively associated with meningioma. To evaluate the potential effects of obesity-related prediagnostic glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol on meningioma and of prediagnostic meningioma on these biomarkers, we conducted a cohort study.Methods:We identified 41 355 individuals in the Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk cohort with values for these biomarkers within 15 years before meningioma diagnosis, death, migration or the end of follow-up. We then estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and their interactions with time and age using Cox regression.Results:Meningioma was diagnosed in 181 women and 115 men whose median follow-up time was 7 years. Fasting serum glucose level was inversely related to meningioma among women (Ptrend=0.0006) but not men (Ptrend=0.24). Prediagnostic diabetes was inversely related to meningioma in both sexes combined (HR=0.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.29-0.71), as was serum cholesterol within the year before diagnosis (HR=0.50, 95% CI 0.34-0.72).Conclusions:Paradoxically, hyperglycaemia is inversely associated with meningioma in women. This finding does not necessarily negate the positive role of obesity or diabetes in meningioma development; rather, it may indicate that their effects depend on the stage of development. Furthermore, the prediagnostic tumour may reduce serum cholesterol levels.

Abstract P5-07-06: A competing risks analysis of the association between prediagnostic serum glucose and lipids and breast cancer survival

Abstract Background: Abnormal levels of glucose and lipids may be linked to survival after breast cancer (BC) diagnosis, but their association to other causes of mortality such as cardiovascular (CV) disease may result in a competing risk problem and invalidate conventional analyses. Methods: We assessed serum glucose, triglycerides (TG) and total cholesterol (TC) measured prospectively three months to three years before diagnosis in 1,798 women with BC in the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk Study (AMORIS). In addition to using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, we employed latent class proportional hazards models to capture any heterogeneity of associations between these markers and BC death. The latter method was extended to include the primary outcome (BC death) and competing outcomes (CV death and death from other causes), allowing latent class-specific hazard estimation for cause-specific deaths. Results: No association between prediagnostic glucose, TG or TC with BC death was observed with Cox regression. With latent class proportional hazards model, two latent classes (Class I and II) were identified in the cohort. Class I, comprising the majority (81.5%) of BC patients, had an increased risk of BC death following higher TG levels (HR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.01-3.45 for every log TG increase). Lower overall survival was observed in Class II, but no association for BC death was found. On the other hand, TC positively corresponded to CV death in Class II, and similarly, glucose to death from other causes. Conclusion: Higher TG was associated with an increased risk of BC death in the majority of BC patients. Our study also identified a subgroup of BC patients at higher risk of early death likely driven by other metabolic-related diseases, which adds to our understanding into BC survival in presence of competing outcomes. Citation Format: Wulaningsih W, Vahdaninia M, Rowley M, Holmberg L, Garmo H, Malmstrom H, Lambe M, Hammar N, Walldius G, Jungner I, Coolen A, Van Hemelrijck M. A competing risks analysis of the association between prediagnostic serum glucose and lipids and breast cancer survival. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-07-06.

Metabolic serum biomarkers for the prediction of cancer: a follow-up of the studies conducted in the Swedish AMORIS study.

The Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk study (AMORIS) contains information on more than 500 biomarkers collected from 397,443 men and 414,630 women from the greater Stockholm area during the period 1985–1996. Using a ten-digit personal identification code, this database has been linked to Swedish national registries, which provide data on socioeconomic status, vital status, cancer diagnosis, comorbidity, and emigration. Within AMORIS, 18 studies assessing risk of overall and site-specific cancers have been published, utilising a range of serum markers representing glucose and lipid metabolism, immune system, iron metabolism, liver metabolism, and bone metabolism. This review briefly summarises these findings in relation to more recently published studies and provides an overview of where we are today and the challenges of observational studies when studying cancer risk prediction.Overall, more recent observational studies supported previous findings obtained in AMORIS, although no new results have been reported for serum fructosamine and inorganic phosphate with respect to cancer risk. A drawback of using serum markers in predicting cancer risk is the potential fluctuations following other pathological conditions, resulting in non-specificity and imprecision of associations observed. Utilisation of multiple combination markers may provide more specificity, as well as give us repeated instead of single measurements. Associations with other diseases may also necessitate further analytical strategies addressing effects of serum markers on competing events in addition to cancer. Finally, delineating the role of serum metabolic markers may generate valuable information to complement emerging clinical studies on preventive effects of drugs and supplements targeting metabolic disorders against cancer.

Serum Glucose and Lipids in Relation to Gastrointestinal Cancer Risk

Metabolic syndrome has been linked to an increased cancer risk, but the role of serum glucose and lipids in gastrointestinal malignancies is unclear. We aimed to assess risk of esophageal, stomach, colon and rectal cancer using serum levels of glucose and lipid components. From the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) study, we selected 540,309 participants (aged >20 years) with baseline measurements of glucose, total cholesterol (TC), and triglycerides (TG) of whom 84,774 had baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), apolipoprotein B (apoB) and apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess glucose and lipid components in relation to esophageal, stomach, colon and rectal cancer risk. Similar analyses were performed for aggressive disease, using gastrointestinal cancer-specific death as outcome proxy. An increased risk of incident esophageal cancer was observed in persons with high glucose and TG (hazard ratio [HR] for the fourth quartile compared to the first, 2.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42-3.68) and low LDL, LDL/HDL ratio, TC/HDL ratio, log (TG/HDL) and apoB/apoA-I ratio. High glucose was also related to increased stomach, colon and rectal cancer risks, while high TG was positively related with colon cancer risk, and high TC with rectal cancer risk. For aggressive disease, a positive link was observed with glucose in those diagnosed with esophageal, stomach, colon and rectal cancer. A similar trend was found for TG in esophageal cancer and TC in rectal cancer (HR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.10-2.17] and 2.86 [95% CI, 1.49-5.49] for every increase in log TG and TC in rectal cancer, respectively). Serum glucose and lipids were associated with an increased risk of incident and aggressive gastrointestinal cancer. These findings further solidify the potential role of these biomarkers in the development of gastrointestinal malignancies.

Serum calcium and risk of gastrointestinal cancer in the Swedish AMORIS study

BackgroundObservational studies have indicated that high calcium intake may prevent colorectal cancer, but as for randomized trials the results are inconclusive. Meanwhile, limited data on the link between serum calcium and cancer risk is available. We investigated the relation between serum calcium and risk of different gastrointestinal cancers in a prospective study.MethodsA cohort based on 492,044 subjects with baseline information on calcium (mmol/L) and albumin (g/L) was selected from the Swedish Apolipoprotein MOrtality RISk (AMORIS) study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse associations between standardised levels, quartiles and age/sex-specific categories of serum calcium and risk of oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal cancer and also colorectal cancer combined, while taking into account serum albumin and other comorbidities.ResultsDuring 12 years of follow-up, we identified 323 incident oesophageal cancers, 782 stomach cancers, 2519 colon cancers, and 1495 rectal cancers. A positive association was found between albumin-adjusted serum calcium and risk of oesophageal [HR: 4.82 (95% CI: 2.07 – 11.19) for high compared to normal age-specific calcium levels] and colon cancer [e.g. HR: 1.07 (95% CI: 1.00 – 1.14) for every SD increase of calcium] as well as colorectal cancer [e.g. HR: 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.11) for every SD increase of calcium] in women. In men there were similar but weaker non-statistically significant trends.ConclusionThe positive relation between serum calcium, oesophageal cancer and colorectal cancer calls for further studies including calcium regulators to evaluate whether there is a true link between calcium metabolism and development of gastrointestinal cancer.