In a number of recent publications, the European Commission has made transparent how it intends to remedy and sanction future found-out cartels. Undertakings that colluded should face high fines, substantial private antitrust damage claims, and be only very selectively granted leniency for cooperation. Recent and on-going academic research into known international cartel investigations sheds light on the order of the effects of collusion in terms of illegal gains, seriousness and duration of the infringement, as well as on the success of cartels in appealing Commission decisions with the CFI/ECJ. This paper exercises through the net effective (expected) liability of a representative modern international cartel. Our back-of-envelope calculus reveals that future punishments for discovered cartels are tough. Yet the expected net cartel liability, even when it fully materializes on the high levels called for by the Commission, is likely to remain far too low still to deter collusion. The Commission should therefore produce high (perceived) probabilities of detection across the board and set the right priorities in enforcement. *Department of Economics and ACLE, Universiteit van Amsterdam. Address: Roetersstraat 11, 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands, m.p.schinkel@uva.nl. Paper prepared for Frontiers of EC Antitrust Enforcement: The More Economic Approach, 25th Conference on New Political Economy, Saarbrucken, Germany, October 12-14, 2006. This paper draws on various on-going research projects, of which papers are gradually coming out. I am particularly indebted to Yuliya Bolotova, Iwan Bos, Martin Carree, John Connor, Vivek Ghosal, Andrea Guenster, Jakob Rueggeberg, Francesco Russo, Giancarlo Spagnolo and Jan Tuinstra for general discussions and comments, as well as specific pieces of information. Opinions and errors remain mine.