Anticipation Of Negative Outcomes Research Articles

56 Outcome Probability Task: Association with Safety Behaviors and Avenues for Future Imaging Research

Objective:Probability bias—overestimation of the likelihood that feared social outcomes will occur—is a mechanism targeted for symptom reduction in cognitive behavioral therapy for social anxiety. Safety behaviors (i.e., the conscious and unconscious actions taken to reduce discomfort in feared social situations) are related to cognitive biases and can be manipulated to reduce probability bias. The purpose of this research was to test the hypothesis that scores from a newly developed computer task to measure probability bias, the Outcome Probability Task (OPT; Draheim & Anderson, 2022) would be associated with self-reported safety behaviors during a speech task.Participants and Methods:Participants (N=90) included diverse students from a university in a southern, metropolitan area. Individuals reported an average age of 20.74 (SD=3.57) and self-identified as 'Woman’ (69%), 'Man’ (30%), 'Transgender’ (1%), or 'Non-binary/Agender’ (1%), and 'African American or Black’ (52%), 'Asian or Asian American’ (19%), 'White’ (16%), 'Multi-racial’ (7%), 'Hispanic or Latine’ (5%), or 'Middle Eastern’ (1%). Participants viewed social images and imagined themselves in the scenarios, then rated the likelihood that they would be negatively evaluated on a 0-100% scale (higher ratings indicate greater probability bias), gave a speech, and completed a standardized self-report measure of safety behaviors to rate how often they engaged in avoidant safety behaviors during the speech.Results:Results from a linear regression indicated that OPT scores (ß=.43) were positively associated with self-reported safety behaviors during a speech task, R2 = .19, F(1, 88) = 20.02, p < .001, 95% CI [0.170, 0.443].Conclusions:Negatively biased expectations about fear-relevant social situations—measured by a digital imagery task, the OPT—may contribute to increased engagement in avoidant safety behaviors during a speech task among a convenience sample. Outcome probability bias has previously only been measured through self-report, and the OPT is a promising new measure to multi-modally assess this aspect of social cognition. This task could be used along with imaging techniques to better understand the functional brain activity involved in outcome probability bias. Future studies could explore how activity in the orbitofrontal cortex, which is associated with the anticipation of negative outcomes, relates to responses on the OPT. If there is a connection, this brain region could be an indicator of improvement following intervention, such as cognitive behavioral therapy, for probability biases involved in social anxiety.

Do Independent Director Departures Predict Future Bad Events?

Following surprise independent director departures, affected firms have worse stock and operating performance, are more likely to restate earnings, face shareholder litigation, suffer from an extreme negative return event, and make worse mergers and acquisitions. The announcement returns to surprise director departures are negative, suggesting that the market infers bad news from surprise departures. We use exogenous variation in independent director departures triggered by director deaths to test whether surprise independent director departures cause these negative outcomes or whether an anticipation of negative outcomes is responsible for the surprise director departure. Our evidence is more consistent with the latter.

Neural response during anticipation of monetary loss is elevated in adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Objectives: Risky behaviour seriously impacts the life of adult patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Such behaviours have often been attributed to their exaggerated reward seeking, but dysfunctional anticipation of negative outcomes might also play a role. Methods: The present study compared adult patients with ADHD (n = 28) with matched healthy controls (n = 28) during anticipation of monetary losses versus gains while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and skin conductance recording. Results: Skin conductance was higher during anticipation of losses compared to gains in both groups. Affective ratings of predictive cues did not differ between groups. ADHD patients showed increased activity in bilateral amygdalae, left anterior insula (region of interest analysis) and left temporal pole (whole brain analysis) compared to healthy controls during loss versus gain anticipation. In the ADHD group higher insula and temporal pole activations went along with more negative affective ratings. Conclusions: Neural correlates of loss anticipation are not blunted but rather increased in ADHD, possibly due to a life history of repeated failures and the respective environmental sanctions. Behavioural adaptations to such losses, however, might differentiate them from controls: future research should study whether negative affect might drive more risk seeking than risk avoidance.

Management Insights

Management Insights

The Dark Side of Outside Directors: Do They Quit When They are Most Needed?

Following surprise independent director departures, affected firms have worse stock and operating performance, are more likely to restate earnings, face shareholder litigation, suffer from an extreme negative return event, and make worse mergers and acquisitions. The announcement returns to surprise director departures are negative, suggesting that the market infers bad news from surprise departures. We use exogenous variation in independent director departures triggered by director deaths to test whether surprise independent director departures cause these negative outcomes or whether an anticipation of negative outcomes is responsible for the surprise director departure. Our evidence is more consistent with the latter.

Personality Factors Explaining the Individual Difference in Self-leakage

Self-leakage is defined as a subjective sense that one's inner state is leaking out for others to know without verbal expression, causing anticipation of negative outcomes. A similar phenomenon is egorrhea symptoms of “taijin kyofusho” (social phobia). The mechanism of self-leakage has not yet been hypothesized, and we aimed at proposing a causal model in the present study. Path analysis suggested that self-leakage was partly caused by the tendency to have delusional ideations and trait anxiety, i.e., interpretation bias. But, contrary to our prediction, social anxiety, fear of negative evaluation, and public self-consciousness did not have enough influence on self-leakage.

Individual Differences in Insular Sensitivity During Loss Anticipation Predict Avoidance Learning

The anterior insula has been implicated in both the experience and the anticipation of negative outcomes. Although individual differences in insular sensitivity have been associated with self-report measures of chronic anxiety, previous research has not examined whether individual differences in insular sensitivity predict learning to avoid aversive stimuli. In the present study, insular sensitivity was assessed as participants anticipated monetary losses while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found that insular responsiveness to anticipated losses predicted participants' ability to learn to avoid losses (but not to approach gains) in a behavioral test several months later. These findings suggest that in addition to correlating with self-reported anxiety, heightened insular sensitivity may promote learning to avoid loss.

Automatic Thoughts and Cognitive Restructuring in Cognitive Behavioral Group Therapy for Social Anxiety Disorder

The goal in (Heimberg, R. G. (1991). A manual for conducting Cognitive Behavior Group Therapy for social phobia (2nd ed), Unpublished manuscript) cognitive behavioral group therapy (CBGT) for social anxiety disorder (social phobia) is to challenge irrational automatic thoughts and create exposures to provide disconfirming evidence for these irrational thoughts as well as habituation to fearful stimuli. Yet little is know about the types of thoughts reported by socially anxious individuals in therapy or which thoughts therapists select for cognitive restructuring in CBGT sessions. The present study analyzed the semantic content of automatic thoughts reported in CBGT and found that the most common thoughts related to poor social performance, negative labels by others, and the anticipation of negative outcomes in feared situations. Principle components analyses indicated the automatic thoughts reflected three underlying themes: Experiencing Anxiety, Negative Self-Evaluation, and Fear of Negative Evaluation. The paper also describes exploratory analyses of which thoughts became the focus of cognitive restructuring exercises and their relationship to treatment outcome. Implications for cognitive therapy are also discussed.