Anthropogenic Contribution Research Articles

Anomalous Diffusion by Ocean Waves and Eddies

Understanding the dispersion of floating objects and ocean properties at the ocean surface is crucial for various applications, including oil spill management, debris tracking and search and rescue operations. While mesoscale turbulence has been recognized as a primary driver of dispersion, the role of submesoscale processes is poorly understood. This study investigates the largely unexplored mechanism of dispersion by refracted wave fields. In situ observations demonstrate significantly faster and distinct dispersion patterns for objects influenced by wind, waves and currents compared to those solely driven by ocean currents. Numerical simulations of wave fields refracted by ocean eddies corroborate these findings, revealing diffusivities that exceed those of turbulent diffusion at scales up to 10 km during energetic sea states. Our results highlight the importance of ocean waves in dispersing surface material, suggesting that refracted wave fields may play a significant role in submesoscale spreading. As atmospheric forcing at the ocean surface will only strengthen due to anthropogenic contributions, additional research into wave refraction is necessary. This requires concurrent high-resolution measurements of wind, waves and currents to inform the revisions of large-scale coupled models to better include the submesoscale physics.

Contrasting Domestic and Global Impacts of Emission Reductions in China on Tropospheric Ozone

AbstractSustained near‐surface ozone pollution despite stringent emission controls in China has drawn wide attention. However, how such rapid regional emission reductions affect global tropospheric ozone remains unexplored. Here, using an ensemble of measurements and global model simulations, we find Chinese emission reductions during 2013–2020 have increased domestic surface ozone; particularly in North China, they have decreased the global tropospheric ozone burden by 2.7 Tg (54% of China's anthropogenic contribution and 7% of global anthropogenic contribution in 2019) and ozone radiative forcing by 8.8 mW m−2 (64% of China's anthropogenic contribution and 9% of global anthropogenic contribution in 2019). Nitrogen oxides (NOx) associated nonlinear chemistry and height‐dependent atmospheric transport patterns primarily cause the contrasting impacts. Future Chinese NOx emission controls would continue to decrease global tropospheric ozone, while regional surface ozone may still increase unless NOx reductions exceed ∼53% of the 2019 level. Our results reveal the substantial benefit of regional emission reductions in China on global tropospheric ozone mitigation.

Zn Isotope Tracing Unveils Primary Anthropogenic Zn Sources in Glacial Cryoconite of the High Asian Mountains

AbstractZinc (Zn) exerts a significant influence on the global environment, terrestrial ecosystems, and human health. The application of Zn isotopes (δ66Zn) has been suggested as a potent tool for tracing environmental contamination. However, studies focusing on Zn isotope tracing within the cryosphere areas are notably limited. Here we present the first data set on Zn isotopes in glacial cryoconite, based on observations over a large regional scale in High Asian Mountains (including Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surroundings of western China). The results showed that glacial cryoconite had a general heavy Zn isotopic signature in various TP locations, with δ66Zn values ranging from −0.22‰ to +0.87‰. Employing the MixSIAR model, the overall Zn contribution source to the cryoconite was mineral dust (36%) > coal burning (33%) > non‐exhaust traffic emissions (22%) > industrial smelting (10%). We ascertained that anthropogenic sources account for the primary contribution (about 60%–73%) of Zn inputs in all glacial locations, with coal burning emerging as the foremost anthropogenic contributor (mean 33%). Anthropogenic Zn in various TP locations was primarily derived from Zn emissions resulting from coal combustion, though it is also predominantly influenced by industrial smelting source in cryoconite of the Tianshan Mountains. Our results aligned with coal combustion data from the energy inventory of western China, suggesting that regional coal burning likely represents the foremost source of atmospheric Zn pollutant emission and deposition in the High Asia mountain glaciers.

Towards an open digital catalogue of sound signatures from the underwater soundscape

Passive acoustic monitoring plays a crucial role to study the underwater soundscape. Identifying the sound signatures of specific marine species and anthropogenic contributions is a key step in assessing the impact of human activities on the acoustic environment. The project COSS (Catalogue of Sound Signatures) aims to build an open library of sound signatures from the coastal seascape of European waters. In this framework, a data management workflow is developed within FAIR principles from the storage of the metadata, ensuring integrity and traceability of the recorded datasets, to the analysis and the annotation method, providing interoperability classification of sound signatures. An interactive map provides an overview of the database. Sound events are analyzed using a home-made annotation software. Labeling is based on a tree-structure ontology with respect to the biological species, human activities and geophony. This labels standardization makes it possible to extract information at several levels of precision. In particular, this library will serve as a learning and testing base for open source AI algorithms for the automatic classification of signals of anthropogenic origin. A long-term objective is to provide a means of determining the acoustic impact of human activities on the marine environment.

A comparison of meteorological normalization of PM2.5 by multiple linear regression, general additive model, and random forest methods

PM2.5 is still one of the major atmospheric pollutants worldwide. Extracting contributions of anthropogenic emission control from the observed PM2.5 variations (PM2.5_anth), which are also strongly affected by meteorological changes, is critical for effective pollution control. Statistical and machine learning methods are usually used for such purpose, but the effectiveness of these methods is hard to evaluate due to the lack of observed anthropogenic contributions. In this study, we use the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem standard simulation to mimic PM2.5 variability in the real atmosphere, and use the model simulation with fixed meteorological fields as the “true value” for PM2.5_anth. We evaluate the effectiveness of three methods in meteorological normalization of PM2.5 on decadal (2006–2017) and synoptic (one month) scale: multiple linear regression (MLR), general additive model (GAM), and random forest (RF) algorithm. For meteorological normalization of PM2.5 on decadal scale, 67–72% of the MLR simulations show positive biases and 56–75% of the RF simulations show negative biases. The “true value” of PM2.5_anth falls within the range of meteorological normalization results of the three methods in most cases, but consistent positive/negative biases are observed in ∼30% of the cases, when meteorological changes dominate PM2.5 variability. In addition, the biases are correlated to the contribution of meteorological changes. As such, multiple statistical or machine learning methods are recommended to quantify the uncertainties associated with method choice in cases anthropogenic emission changes dominate PM2.5 variability. On synoptic scale, RF performs better in reproducing the daily variations of the PM2.5_anth differences than MLR (GAM) in all (83% of) the cases, and is recommended for meteorological normalization of PM2.5 in short-term in eastern China.

Sedimentary antimony stable isotope record of anthropogenic contamination in a karst lake in southwestern China

Anthropogenic sources of antimony (Sb) are an important driver of pollution in the Earth environment, but their roles in the historical changes of Sb pollution in lake ecosystems are currently poorly understood. This study documents the sedimentary Sb deposition fluxes in Hongfeng lake (HFL), in southwestern China during 1958–2021 and quantifies the changes of anthropogenic contributions to sediments using Sb stable isotopes. Mean Sb concentration (mean: 1.89 mg kg−1) and deposition flux (mean: 302.1 ng cm−2 a−1) in lake sediments remained relatively stable from 1958 to 1980. Sb deposition fluxes increased rapidly since 1980, peaked at 990.8 ng cm−2 a−1 in 2000, and then decreased consistently, reaching 306.9 ng cm−2 a−1 in 2021. Generally, the historical changes in Sb isotopes were anticorrelated with Sb deposition fluxes and enrichment factors, suggesting a lower ε123Sb signature in anthropogenic loading sources, and highlight the ability of Sb isotopes to distinguish anthropogenic signatures from natural processes in complex hydrological systems. Using a binary end-member mixing model, the contributions of anthropogenic sources to the accumulated of Sb in the lake sediments were estimated to be 20 % before 1980s and increased approximate 58 % during 2000–2015, then decreased to 24 % in 2021, likely reflecting the changes of degree in regional industrial activities. Our results help to better understand the response of Sb pollutions to anthropogenic activities and would in turn benefit the controls Sb contamination in lake ecosystems.

How unusual was Australia's 2017–2019 Tinderbox Drought?

Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin experienced three consecutive years of meteorological drought across 2017–2019, collectively named the ‘Tinderbox Drought’. Rainfall deficits during the three-year drought were most pronounced in the Australian cool season (April to September). Deficits in both the cool season and annual total rainfall were unprecedented in the instrumental record. However, the instrumental record provides just one of a range of equally plausible climate trajectories that could have occurred during this period. To determine if the Tinderbox Drought was outside this range, we used observational data from prior to the onset of the drought to construct Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) that emulate the stationary statistics of Australian rainfall and its connection to global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Overall, we find that rainfall deficits were most unusual in the northern Murray-Darling Basin, and during the final year of the drought. The global SST anomalies observed during the first two years of the Tinderbox Drought, particularly the cool anomalies in the central tropical Pacific and western Indian Ocean, are not typically associated with low rainfall across the Murray-Darling Basin. In terms of single-year rainfall anomalies, the only aspect of the Tinderbox Drought that was beyond the range of the LIMs was annual-total rainfall over the northern Murray-Darling Basin during 2019. This coincided with an extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event that was also beyond the range of the LIMs. When considered in terms of basin-wide rainfall over the full three years, rainfall deficits during the Tinderbox Drought were beyond the LIM range in terms of both cool-season and annual-total rainfall. This suggests an anthropogenic contribution to the severity of the drought—likely exacerbated by the 2019 extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole event.

Water quality assessment of Upper Ganga and Yamuna river systems during COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown: imprints of river rejuvenation.

Clean river water is an essential and life-sustaining asset for all living organisms. The upper Ganga and Yamuna river system has shown signs of rejuvenation and tremendous improvement in the water quality following the nationwide lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. All the industrial and commercial activity was shut down, and there was negligible wastewater discharge from the industries. This article addresses the water quality assessment from the study area, which is based on the original data of physical parameters, major and trace elements, and stable isotopes (hydrogen and oxygen) systematics during the nationwide lockdown. The impact of the lockdown could be seen in terms of an increase in dissolved oxygen (DO). Water samples were collected from the Upper Ganga and Yamuna river basins (Alaknanda, Bhagirathi, and Tons rivers) during an eight-week lockdown in Uttarakhand, India. We discussed the signs of rejuvenation of riverine based on physical parameters, major ions, trace elements, isotopic ratios, and water pollution index (WPI). Results reveal that the water quality of the entire upper basins of the Ganga has significantly improved by 93%, reflecting the signs of self-rejuvenation of the rivers. Multivariate analysis suggests a negative factor loading for an anthropogenic element ( ), implying that they contribute little to the river water during the lockdown. Further, bicarbonate ( ) is a dominant element in both river basins. The geochemical facies are mainly characterized by the ( ) type of water, suggesting that silicate rock weathering dominates with little influence from carbonate weathering in the area. The positive factor loadings of some cations, like , , and reflect their strong association with the source of origin in the lockdown phases. Stable isotopic reveals that the glaciated region contributed the most to the river basin, as evidenced by the low d-excess in riverine water compared to anthropogenic contributions. Rivers can self-rejuvenate if issues of human influence and anthropogenic activities are adequately resolved and underline our responsibility for purifying the ecosystem. We observed that this improvement in the river water quality will take a shorter time, and quality will deteriorate again when commercial and industrial activity resumes.

Chemical and isotopic composition of rainwater in the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Mexico

Given that rain is the component of precipitation that reaches the surface of the earth, and aiming to contribute to the global efforts of rainwater monitoring, we present information regarding the origin of ions and their relationship with isotopic patterns and the source of moisture for rainwater in the Mexican Caribbean, which not only may be useful for pollution and atmospheric studies, but also for estimating groundwater recharges, understanding dust nuisances, and offering information about water quality for rainwater harvesting. In this paper, we describe the chemical composition of rainwater in terms of major ions, isotopic composition, and the most probable sources of moisture in the Caribbean coastal zone of Mexico, considering the three main climatic seasons in this area. The chemistry of rainwater displayed a noticeable influence from sea-salt spray, land-blown dust, and anthropogenic impacts such as agriculture and biomass burning. We identified the predominant terrestrial origin of calcium, namely anthropogenic contributions of sulfates and nitrates, plus potassium from sea spray and anthropogenic emissions. The local meteoric water line is δ2H = 8.2 δ18O + 13.8 (R² = 0.9601) suggesting enrichment due to evaporative losses, various moisture sources and local climatic effects. Although isotope composition was not different by site, it was by season, as opposed to water chemistry. We conclude that the water chemistry responds to the local conditions of the air column below the clouds, while the isotope composition is influenced by the origin of moisture and the physical conditions in which water evaporates and condenses as well.

Detangling past and modern zinc anthropogenic source contributions in an urbanized coastal river by combining elemental, isotope and speciation approaches

The accumulation of trace metals in the environmental compartments of coastal rivers is a global and complex environmental issue, requiring multiple tools to constrain the various anthropogenic sources and biogeochemical processes affecting the water quality of these environments. The Valao fluvio-estuarine system (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) presents a challenging case of a coastal river contaminated by both modern and historical anthropogenic metal sources, located in the land and in the intra-estuary, continuously mixed by tidal cycles. This study employed a combination of spatial distribution analysis of trace metals including gadolinium (Gd), zinc (Zn) isotopic analyses, and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) to distinguish between these sources. The concentrations of metals in both dissolved (water samples) and surficial sediment compartments (Suspended Particulate Matter and sediment samples) display an overall enrichment trend from upstream to downstream. Multivariate statistical analysis allows to discriminate geogenic elements derived from watershed geology (Ti, K, and Mg) vs anthropogenic contaminants from urban runoff and domestic sewage discharges (Cu, Cr, Pb, Zn, and Gd); and legacy metal contaminants (Zn and Cd) remobilized from ancient metallurgical wastes and transported upstream in the estuary during tidal cycles. The anthropogenic Gd concentration in the dissolved compartment increases along the watercourse, highlighting continuous ongoing sewage discharge. Zinc solid speciation also indicates that Zn contribution from legacy metallurgy waste is primarily associated with sulfide-Zn and Zn-phyllosilicate in the outlet estuary, while in upstream sediments of fluvio-estuarine system, Zn is found bound to organic matter. Zinc isotope systematically reveals a progressive downstream shift to heavier isotope compositions. Upstream, the relatively pristine site and the urbanized section of the river exhibit a relatively uniform δ66/64Zn value (+0.20 ± 0.07 ‰) in suspended particulate matter (SPM) and surficial sediments. These results indicate that domestic sewage discharges contribute to Zn enrichment in sediments of the Valao fluvio-estuarine system but without modifying its isotope signature in sediments. The sediment of the downstream estuarine section shows a heavier δ66/64Zn value (+0.48 ± 0.08 ‰), indicating the strong influence of the intra-estuarine source identified as the historical metallurgic contamination. An integrated view of the geochemical tracers allows thus inferring that the untreated sewage and legacy metallurgical contamination are the primary sources of anthropogenic Zn contamination. It highlights the progressive mixing along the estuarine gradient under tidal dynamics. The influence of the former source continuously expands from the headland towards the estuary.

Greenhouse gas mitigation potential via a large-scale compulsory circular waste management system

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is a major anthropogenic contributor to climate change due to the substantial quantities of greenhouse gas (GHG) emitted by landfills and incineration. Circular waste management has shown promise in reducing GHG emissions; however, it is still in its early stages and requires further optimization. In this study, support vector machine models were developed to determine the compositional dynamics of MSW, which were then integrated to examine the interactions among composition, disposal routes, and GHG emissions. The results from analyzing large-scale transitions from traditional to circular waste management practices showed that GHG mitigation potential will be significantly enhanced as the coverage of circular waste management increases from 35% in 2025 to 100% in 2035 in China. However, these reductions will eventually decrease as waste quantities decline in response to population shrinkage. The results reveal both the GHG mitigation potential and limitations of the circular waste management mode, assisting policymakers and researchers in maximizing its mitigation potential.

Water quality and dissolved load in the Chirchik and Akhangaran river basins (Uzbekistan, Central Asia)

Uzbekistan (Central Asia) is experiencing serious water stress as a consequence of altered climate regime, past over-exploitation, and dependence from neighboring countries for water supply. The Chirchik–Akhangaran drainage basin, in the Tashkent province of Uzbekistan, includes watersheds from the Middle Tien Shan Mountains escarpments and the downstream floodplain of the Chirchik and Akhangaran rivers, major tributaries of the Syrdarya river. Water in the Chirchik–Akhangaran basin is facing potential anthropogenic pressure from different sources at the scale of river reaches, from both industrial and agricultural activities. In this study, the major and trace element chemistry of surface water and groundwater from the Chirchik–Akhangaran basin were investigated, with the aim of addressing the geogenic and anthropogenic contributions to the dissolved load. The results indicate that the geochemistry of water from the upstream catchments reflects the weathering of exposed lithologies. A significant increase in Na+, K+, SO42−, Cl−, and NO3− was observed downstream, indicating loadings from fertilizers used in croplands. However, quality parameters suggest that waters are generally suitable for irrigation purposes, even if the total dissolved solid indicates a possible salinity hazard. The concentration of trace elements (including potentially toxic elements) was lower than the thresholds set for water quality by different regulations. However, an exceedingly high concentration of Zn, Mo, Sb, Pb, Ni, U, As, and B compared with the average river water worldwide was observed. Water in a coal fly-ash large pond related to the Angren coal-fired power plants stands out for the high As, Al, B, Mo, and Sb concentration, having a groundwater contamination potential during infiltration. Spring waters used for drinking purposes meet the World Health Organization and the Republic of Uzbekistan quality standards. However, a surveillance of such drinking-water supplies is suggested. The obtained results are indicators for an improved water resource management.

Spatial mapping of greenhouse gases using a UAV monitoring platform over a megacity in China

Urban environments are recognized as main anthropogenic contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, characterized by unevenly distributed emission sources over the urban environments. However, spatial GHG distributions in urban regions are typically obtained through monitoring at only a limited number of locations, or through model studies, which can lead to incomplete insights into the heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of GHGs. To address such information gap and to evaluate the spatial representation of a planned GHG monitoring network, a custom-developed atmospheric sampler was deployed on a UAV platform in this study to map the CO2 and CH4 mixing ratios in the atmosphere over Zhengzhou in central China, a megacity of nearly 13 million people. The aerial survey was conducted along the main roads at an altitude of 150 m above ground, covering a total distance of 170 km from the city center to the suburbs. The spatial distributions of CO2 and CH4 mixing ratios in Zhengzhou exhibited distinct heterogeneities, with average mixing ratios of CO2 and CH4 at 439.2 ± 10.8 ppm and 2.12 ± 0.04 ppm, respectively. A spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed on the measured GHG mixing ratios across the city, revealing a spatial correlation range of approximately 2 km for both CO2 and CH4 in the urban area. Such a spatial autocorrelation distance suggests that the urban GHG monitoring network designed for emission inversion purposes need to have a spatial resolution of 4 km to characterize the spatial heterogeneities in the GHGs. This UAV-based measurement approach demonstrates its capability to monitor GHG mixing ratios across urban landscapes, providing valuable insights for GHG monitoring network design.

Monitoring ecosystem services with essential ecosystem service variables

In the Anthropocene, ecosystems are changing along with their capacity to support human well‐being. Monitoring ecosystem services (ESs) is required to assess the changing state of human–nature interactions. To standardize the monitoring of multiple facets of ESs, the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) recently proposed the essential ecosystem service variables (EESVs), which are organized into six classes: Ecological Supply, Use, Demand, Anthropogenic Contribution, Instrumental Value, and Relational Value. We apply the EESV framework to three case studies in British Columbia, Canada, each targeting a single ES. Using trend and intervention analysis, we show how EESVs are changing and affected by policy. We discuss key challenges and solutions while providing guidance on how to quantify EESVs. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of EESVs to harmonize metrics across conceptual frameworks, monitor ES change, and provide decision support to assess progress under various international policy conventions.

Isotopic and trace element record of changing metal source contributions to tropical freshwater Lake Naivasha (Kenya)

Lake Naivasha, Kenya's second-largest freshwater body is a wetland of international ecological importance and currently subjected to unprecedented anthropogenic influence. The study aims to chronologically reconstruct the main human activities and background weathering reactions that govern metal mobilizations into the lake and their potentially adverse effects on its ecological status. We combine extensive geochemical analyses (major, trace elements, Zn-Pb isotope ratios) in a dated lake sediment record and catchment rocks with remote sensing techniques. Downcore geochemical variations reflect natural ecosystem destabilizations occurring as early as the first half of the 20th century. These coincide with changes towards less radiogenic Pb-isotope values which persist towards the top of the core (206Pb/207Pb = 1.243 at core base ∼1843, to 206Pb/207Pb = 1.225 at ∼1978). We interpret the land-clearance for agricultural purposes on the Aberdare Range and documented early aviation activities as possible vectors of this early Pb-isotope excursion. The overlapping Pb-isotope signatures between sediment sources and anthropogenic contributions challenges a straightforward deconvolution of the two. Our conservative model calculations suggest, nevertheless, that an addition of up to ∼1.8 % Pb-gasoline influx to the total Pb flux, peaking in the 1980s is able to explain the Pb distribution trend. Homogeneous Zn-isotope compositions in sediments deposited until ∼1970s (δ66/64Zn = 0.216–0.225 ‰) do not follow major hydro-climatic events or anthropogenic forcing but likely reflect lake-specific natural cycling. Subsequent higher variations to both heavier (up to δ66/64Zn = 0.242 ± 0.005 ‰) and lighter (down to δ66/64Zn = 0.184 ± 0.003 ‰) Zn-isotope values are contemporaneous with intensification of large-scale horticultural industry in the catchment. Together with supporting indicators, the lighter Zn-isotope compositions in youngest analysed sediments (21st century) are attributable to increased biological productivity (algal blooms) and ongoing lake eutrophication. Our study demonstrates the applicability of the heavy metal isotope tool to reconstruct human influences on lake environments with complex geological settings such as the East African Rift System.

Converged ensemble simulations of climate: possible trends in total solar irradiance cannot explain global warming alone

We address the hypothetical question of whether an increasing total solar irradiance (TSI) trend, without anthropogenic contributions, could be sufficient to explain the ongoing global warming. To this end, the intermediate-complexity climate model PlaSim is used. To consider the total internal variability, we present a set of ensemble simulations, with different forcing histories in TSI and CO2 concentration, that have converged sufficiently tightly to the relevant probability distributions to provide a satisfactory bound on any spurious trend possibly arising from a sampling bias; similar bounds on any other unforced contributions to ensemble mean trends are also estimated. A key point is the consideration, among the forcing histories, the steepest increasing trend in TSI that is still consistent with observations according to a recent study; thereby, we essentially revisit corresponding TSI reconstructions, more than 20 years after their last modeling-based evaluation, by improving the analysis through taking care of all possible sources of error or uncertainty and incorporating data that have become available since then. Without any change in CO2 concentration, our TSI trend (i.e., and upper bound on actual TSI trends) is found to be insufficient to produce outcomes compatible with the observational record in global mean surface temperature (GMST) with a nonnegligible probability. We formalize our statement for quantifiers of GMST trends through evaluating their distributions over the ensemble, and we speculate that the hypothesis about the exclusive role of an increasing TSI remains implausible even beyond our particular model setup. At the same time, if we consider a constant TSI, and the observational record in CO2 concentration is applied as forcing, the simulation results and the recorded GMST match well. While we currently need to leave the question of a precise attribution open, we conclude by pointing out that an attribution of the ongoing global warming to an increasing TSI alone could be made plausible only if a bias in the set of land-based instrumental temperature measurements were increasing more rapidly than commonly estimated; an assessment of the latter possibility is out of the scope of our study, as well as addressing solar forcing mechanisms beyond the effect of TSI.

Source Attribution of Health Burdens From Ambient PM2.5, O3, and NO2 Exposure for Assessment of South Korean National Emission Control Scenarios by 2050.

We quantify anthropogenic sources of health burdens associated with ambient air pollution exposure in South Korea and forecast future health burdens using domestic emission control scenarios by 2050 provided by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Our health burden estimation framework uses GEOS-Chem simulations, satellite-derived NO2, and ground-based observations of PM2.5, O3, and NO2. We estimate 19,000, 3,300, and 8,500 premature deaths owing to long-term exposure to PM2.5, O3, and NO2, respectively, and 23,000 NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences in 2016. Next, we calculate anthropogenic emission contributions to these four health burdens from each species and grid cell using adjoint sensitivity analysis. Domestic sources account for 56%, 38%, 87%, and 88% of marginal emission contributions to the PM2.5-, O3-, and NO2-associated premature deaths and the NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences, respectively. We project health burdens to 2050 using UNEP domestic emission scenarios (Baseline and Mitigation) and population forecasts from Statistics Korea. Because of population aging alone, there are 41,000, 10,000, and 20,000 more premature deaths associated with PM2.5, O3, and NO2 exposure, respectively, and 9,000 fewer childhood asthma incidences associated with NO2. The Mitigation scenario doubles the NO2-associated health benefits over the Baseline scenario, preventing 24,000 premature deaths and 13,000 childhood asthma incidences by 2050. It also slightly reduces PM2.5- and O3-associated premature deaths by 9.9% and 7.0%, unlike the Baseline scenario where these pollutants increase. Furthermore, we examine foreign emission impacts from nine SSP/RCP-based scenarios, highlighting the need for international cooperation to reduce PM2.5 and O3 pollution.

The reward and penalty for ozone pollution control caused by natural sources and regional transport: A case study in Guangdong province

Ground-level O3 pollution in the Pearl River Delta region (PRD) is closely related to anthropogenic, natural emissions and regional transport. However, the interactions among different sources and natural intervention in modulating anthropogenic management have not been comprehensively assessed. Here, the WRF-CMAQ-MEGAN modeling system was utilized to simulate an O3 episode over PRD. The integrated source apportionment method (ISAM) and brute-force top-down combined with factor separation approach (BF-TD-FSA) were applied to quantify source contributions, impacts of individual or multiple sources on O3, and decouple interactions among various emissions; additionally, based on ISAM, O3 isopleths visualized MDA8 O3 response of different source types to anthropogenic perturbations. ISAM concluded considerable MDA8 O3 contributions of regional transport in PRD/NPRD (non-PRD areas in Guangdong province) (38.8 %/35.7 %), followed by anthropogenic (32.7 %/24.8 %), BVOC (biogenic volatile organic compounds, 23.8 %/20.3 %) and SNO (soil NO, ∼4 %) emissions. Compared to concentrated anthropogenic contributions, widespread natural contributions were observed across their source areas and along the transport pathways. The BF-TD also revealed that regional transport had the largest impact (>90 μg m−3) on MDA8 O3 while anthropogenic and BVOC emissions greatly affected downwind PRD (64.5 and 7.7 μg m−3). Negative synergy between anthropogenic and natural emissions (especially BVOC emission) suggested potential natural-induced intensification of anthropogenic impact during O3 management. The MDA8 O3 isopleths further demonstrated significant BVOC-induced reward and regional transport-induced penalty for anthropogenic NOx (ANOx) emission control benefits, leading to additional maximum MDA8 O3 decrease and increase by −27.5 and 13.8 μg m−3 in polluted high-emission grids. The natural-induced reward effect could impose loose requirements on anthropogenic reduction (decreased by 13.3 %–17.7 %) if there were no regional transport-induced control penalty. It is advisable to prioritize ANOx control and seek collaboration on air quality management with neighboring provinces to maximize the natural-induced control reward and achieve desired targets with minimal human efforts.

Marine coastal chemistry related to inland inputs in San Jorge gulf and the adjacent north coast

Coastal regions are sectors where human activities impact the marine ecosystem, and if necessary control measures are not taken, they can generate negative consequences for health and ecosystem services. Within the framework of the Pampa Azul initiative and under the One Health paradigm, the interconnection between the terrestrial and marine environments of the San Jorge Gulf and the adjacent north coast has been studied. In November, 2022, a campaign was carried out aboard the R/V “Mar Argentino” at thirty-four stations near the coast. There, for the first time, simultaneously with in-situ measurements of physical variables, macronutrients (NO3−, PO4−3, Si(OH)4 and NH4+), particulate silica (BSi and LSi), trace metals in the particulate material (Cd, Cu, Cr, Fe and Pb) and the phytoplankton community were analyzed. The results showed a high nutrient dynamic, with a significant influence of natural stratification and anthropogenic condition due to the discharge of effluents off the cities of Comodoro Rivadavia and Caleta Olivia. Under natural conditions, NO3− and Si(OH)4 limited the surface primary production by 47 % and 41 %, respectively. Additionally, due to the anthropogenic contribution, NH4+ concentration reached 3 μM, increasing the proliferation of nanophytoplankton, among other consequences. As a result of nutrient dynamics, the uptake of Si(OH)4, the growth rate of diatoms and their production of BSi were decoupled. Furthermore, a significant correlation between LSi and Fe in particulate matter was evidenced, opening new lines of research that relate dust storms to primary productivity in this marine environment. The measured concentrations of trace metals do not appear to be a biological risk; however, contamination by Cd (37.6 μg g− 1 d.w.) and Cu (214.97 μg g− 1 d.w.) off Camarones poses a significant concern that must be addressed in the immediate future.

Contributions of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases and Aerosol Emissions to Changes in Summer Precipitation Over Southern China

AbstractThis study investigates the anthropogenic contribution to the summer precipitation changes over southern China and the underlying physical mechanisms. Observations show a wetting trend over southeastern China (SEC) but a drying trend over southwestern China (SWC) in summer of 1961–2014. The dipole pattern can be reasonably reproduced by the anthropogenic forcing simulations of CMIP6 models but with weak trends under the external natural forcing simulations, suggesting the vital human contribution to the observed changes. Particularly, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) dominate the wetting trend over SEC, while the drying trend over SWC is primarily attributed to anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emissions. Further analysis shows that the GHG concentrations enhance the subtropical high over the western North Pacific (WNP) via the heterogeneous warming of the sea surface temperature, decrease the sea level pressure over eastern China, and increase the atmospheric moisture, facilitating the moisture flux convergence (MFC) and the precipitation over SEC. The GHG‐induced wetting trend is somewhat offset by the inhibited evaporation due to the AA forcing. For SWC, the decreased precipitation is influenced by the anomalous high pressure from India to WNP, which is closely associated with the enhanced Asian AA emission and the interhemispheric asymmetrical distribution of AA emissions. In the upper troposphere, the uneven AA emissions between South and East Asia and Europe weaken the East Asian summer subtropical jet, resisting the western moisture to SWC. Both factors in the low‐and‐high levels suppress the MFC and precipitation over SWC, counteracted by the thermodynamical effects of GHG forcing.