Anthropogenic Aerosol Optical Depth Research Articles

Impact of ocean warming on net primary production in the northern Indian Ocean: role of aerosols and freshening of surface ocean.

Warming due to climate change stratifies the upper ocean and reduces nutrient input to the photic zone resulting in a decline in net primary production (NPP). On the other hand, climate change increases both anthropogenic aerosol input into the atmosphere and the river discharge due to the melting of glaciers on land resulting in enhanced nutrient inputs to the surface ocean and NPP. To examine the balance between these two processes, spatial and temporal variations in the rate of warming, NPP, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and sea surface salinity (SSS) were studied between 2001 and 2020 in the northern Indian Ocean. Strong heterogeneity in the warming of the sea surface was observed in the northern Indian Ocean with significant warming in the south of 12°N. Insignificant trends in warming were observed in the northern Arabian Sea (AS), north of 12°N, during winter and fall, and western Bay of Bengal (BoB) during winter, spring, and fall associated with higher levels of anthropogenic AOD (AAOD) due to a reduction in incoming solar radiation. The decline in NPP was observed in the south of 12°N in both AS and BoB and correlated inversely with SST suggesting that a weak supply of nutrients due to upper ocean stratification controlled NPP. Despite warming, the weak trends in NPP in the north of 12°N were associated with higher AAOD levels and their rate of increase suggesting that the deposition of nutrients from the aerosols seems to be compensating for declining trends due to warming. The decrease in sea surface salinity confirmed an increase in river discharge, and nutrient supply led to weak NPP trends in the northern BoB. This study suggests that the enhanced atmospheric aerosols and river discharge played a significant role in warming and changes in NPP in the northern Indian Ocean, and these parameters must be included in the ocean biogeochemical models for accurate prediction of possible changes in the upper ocean biogeochemistry in the future due to climate change.

Towards an improved representation of carbonaceous aerosols over the Indian monsoon region in a regional climate model: RegCM

Abstract. Mitigation of carbonaceous aerosol emissions is expected to provide climate and health co-benefits. The accurate representation of carbonaceous aerosols in climate models is critical for reducing uncertainties in their climate feedback. In this regard, emission fluxes and aerosol life cycle processes are the two primary sources of uncertainties. Here, we demonstrate that the incorporation of a dynamic ageing scheme and emission estimates that are updated for the local sources improves the representation of carbonaceous aerosols over the Indian monsoon region in a regional climate model, RegCM, compared with its default configuration. The respective mean black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) surface concentrations in 2010 are estimated to be 4.25 and 10.35 µg m−3 over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in the augmented model. The BC column burden over the polluted IGP is found to be 2.47 mg m−2, 69.95 % higher than in the default model configuration and much closer to available observations. The anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) increases by more than 19 % over the IGP due to the model enhancement, also leading to a better agreement with observed AOD. The respective top-of-the-atmosphere, surface, and atmospheric anthropogenic aerosol short-wave radiative forcing are estimated at −0.3, −9.3, and 9.0 W m−2 over the IGP and −0.89, −5.33, and 4.44 W m−2 over Peninsular India (PI). Our results suggest that the combined effect of two modifications leads to maximum improvements in the model performance in regions where emissions play a dominant role.

Enhanced Atmospheric Pollutants Strengthened Winter Convective Mixing and Phytoplankton Blooms in the Northern Arabian Sea

AbstractThe recent increase in atmospheric pollutants (aerosols) over the northern Indian Ocean due to an increase in industrial activity in South and Southeast Asia decreased air temperature (AT) leading to the strengthening of winter convective mixing and promotion of phytoplankton blooms in the northern Arabian Sea (AS). To test this hypothesis, the variability in meteorological and surface ocean properties was analyzed for a period of 4 decades (1979–2018) in the northern AS. The total and anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) increased at a rate of 0.05 and 0.07 per decade respectively in the recent decades associated with a decrease in AT over the northern AS during winter. The estimated decrease in AT due to increasing AOD accounts for 0.18°C over the AS and it is close to that of the mean decrease in AT from 1994 to 2018 of 0.25°C. This increased the difference in temperature between the sea surface and atmosphere and enhanced specific humidity in the atmosphere resulting in the strengthening of convective mixing in the northern AS as evidenced by the deepening of the depth of 20°C isotherm in the recent decades during winter. Enhanced nutrient concentration and phytoplankton biomass were observed in the photic zone during winter further confirming that convective mixing strengthened in the recent decades in the northern AS than hitherto hypothesized as weakening due to the warming of the Eurasian landmass. The enhanced nutrients supported diatoms blooms, which are prey for Noctiluca scintillans to initiate the bloom in the AS in the recent decades.

Decadal variations in natural and anthropogenic aerosol optical depth over the Bay of Bengal: the influence of pollutants from Indo-GangeticPlain.

Perennial increase in atmospheric pollution over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and South China Sea is reported due to increase in human population and industrial activity in South and Southeast Asia. Based on total aerosol optical depth (AOD) derived from MODIS (moderate resolution imaging resolution imaging spectroradiometer), natural and anthropogenic fractions were derived. The seasonality and spatial variability in rate of increase in total, natural, and anthropogenic AOD fractions were examined over the BoB using data collected between 2001 and 2019. Both total and anthropogenic AOD displayed statistically significant rate of increase in the northwest BoB (NWB) and western coastal BoB (WCB) regions during 2001 to 2019 whereas the long-term changes are insignificant in the other regions of BoB. Significant increase in AOD in the NWB and WCB regions is mainly contributed by dominant outflow of anthropogenic emissions from Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) area of Indian subcontinent. The magnitude of AOD decreased by half from northern BoB to equatorial region due to increase in distance from the source region. The contribution of anthropogenic AOD was >70% to total AOD with higher contribution during winter and lower during summer. The rate of increase in both total and anthropogenic AOD was close to 0.104 and 0.099 per decade in the NWB and 0.069 and 0.059 per decade in the WCB region between 2001 and 2019. The rate of increase in total and anthropogenic AOD decreased from 2001-2009 (0.164 and 0.115 per decade respectively) to 2010-2019 (0.068 and 0.076 per decade respectively) in the NWB region. Significant increase in anthropogenic AOD by 50 and 30% was observed during El Niño and La Niña periods respectively than normal year in both northwest BoB (NWB) and western coastal (WCB) regions due to change in strength and direction of winds. Although some fraction of anthropogenic AOD is found over the entire BoB, significant rate of increase in anthropogenic AOD is found only about 23% of the area of BoB than hitherto reported as entire BoB. The impact of atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic aerosols on biogeochemical processes, such as primary production and ocean acidification, needs further evaluation.

Sectoral emissions contributions to anthropogenic aerosol scenarios over the Indian subcontinent and effects of mitigation on air quality, climate, and health

Over the last few decades, there have been substantial changes in sectoral anthropogenic emissions over India, modifying the region’s air quality and radiation budget. However, these sectoral contributions are still poorly understood. This study attempts to estimate the anthropogenic aerosols and SO2 emissions from different sectors over the Indian subcontinent and their implications for regional climate and human health using the RegCM4.4 regional climate model and the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) global model. We consider current emissions as well as emissions with a mitigation scenario for the year 2030. The RegCM simulations with ECLIPSE v5a as emissions inventory for 2000 and 2015 show high SO2 emissions from the energy sector, substantially contributing to anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AODanthro) and climate forcing. The residential and transport sectors’ imprint on climate forcing is increased in 2015 compared to 2000. Higher AODanthro (0.35-0.45) occurrence days substantially decrease under a mitigation scenario by 5-10% over the Indo-Gangetic Plain. In particular, over 5�megacities (Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, and Bangalore) of India, the concentrations of black carbon, organic carbon, and particulate matter ≤2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are substantially reduced under the mitigation scenario; however, SO2 is increased. The reduction of pollutants contributes to significantly reducing life expectancy loss in all cities. This study advocates the need for future emission control policies with a synergy between air quality and climate change.

First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect

Abstract. We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on anthropogenic aerosol emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., 2018). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries for anthropogenic aerosol. All scenarios, except SSP3-70 and SSP4-60, show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range from 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol from high- and low-end scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing anthropogenic aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The ERF of anthropogenic aerosol for the mid-2090s ranges from −0.15 W m−2 for SSP1-19 to −0.54 W m−2 for SSP3-70, i.e. the mid-2090s ERF is 30 %–108 % of the value in the mid-2000s due to differences in the emission pathway alone. Assuming a stronger Twomey effect changes these ERFs to −0.39 and −0.92 W m−2, respectively, which are similar to estimates obtained from models with complex aerosol parameterisations. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 W m−2 associated with natural variability highlight the necessity to average over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF; this is in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just 1 year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.

Anthropogenic aerosol effects on East Asian winter monsoon: The role of black carbon‐induced Tibetan Plateau warming

AbstractThis study investigates anthropogenic aerosol effects on East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) with Community Atmospheric Model version 5. In winter, the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth is the largest over southern East Asia and adjacent oceans. The associated EAWM change, however, is the most significant in northern East Asia, which is characterized by a significant surface cooling in northern East Asia and an acceleration of the jet stream around 40°N, indicating an intensification of the EAWM northern mode. Such an intensification is attributed to anthropogenic black carbon (BC)‐induced Tibetan Plateau (TP) warming. The BC is mostly transported from northern South Asia by wintertime westerly and southwesterly and then deposited on snow, giving rise to a reduction of surface albedo and an increase of surface air temperature via the snow‐albedo feedback. The TP warming increases meridional temperature gradient and lower tropospheric baroclinicity over northern East Asia, leading to the jet stream acceleration around 40°N and the westward shift of East Asian major trough via the transient eddy‐mean flow feedback. Such upper tropospheric pattern favors more cold air outbreak, leading to a large surface cooling in northern East Asia. In southern East Asia, the effect of nonabsorbing aerosols is dominant. The solar flux at surface is significantly reduced directly by scattering of nonabsorbing aerosols and indirectly by intensification of short wave cloud forcing. Accordingly, the surface air temperature in southern East Asia is reduced. The precipitation is also significantly reduced in South China and Indo‐China Peninsula, where the aerosol indirect effect is the largest.

Seasonality in anthropogenic aerosol effects on East Asian climate simulated with CAM5

This study investigates the seasonality in anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) distributions and their effects on clouds and precipitation in East Asia with the Community Atmospheric Model version 5. The differences between the model experiments with and without anthropogenic emissions exhibit a northward shift of the maximal AOD change in East Asia from March to July and then a southward withdrawal from September to November, which are induced by East Asian monsoon circulation. Associated with the shift, the direct and semi-direct effects of the anthropogenic aerosols are the most pronounced in spring and summer, with a maximum center in North China during summer and a secondary center in South China during spring. The cloud liquid water path and shortwave cloud forcing changes, however, are the weakest in North China during summer. The indirect effect is the strongest in South China during spring, which is related to the large amount of middle-low level clouds in cold seasons in East China. A positive feedback between aerosol induced surface cooling and low-level cloud increase is identified in East China, which acts to enforce the aerosol indirect effect in spring. Accordingly, the climate response to the anthropogenic aerosols is also characterized by a northward shift of reduced precipitation from spring to summer, leading to a spring drought in South China and a summer drought in North China. The spring drought is attributed to both direct and indirect effects of the anthropogenic aerosols, while the summer drought is primarily determined by the aerosols' direct effect.

Direct radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Indian summer monsoon circulation

The direct radiative impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the dynamics of Indian summer monsoon circulation are examined using the regional climate model version 4.1 (RegCM4.1). High anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AAOD >0.1) and surface shortwave cooling ( 0.2 °C due to the dimming effect of anthropogenic aerosols. The aerosol-induced cooling leads to an increase in surface pressure over the local hotspots in the Indian landmass, which reduces the land-sea pressure contrast resulting in weakening of summer monsoon circulation. The simulated surface pressure anomaly also inhibits moisture transport from the BoB towards Indian landmass thereby enhancing precipitation over the BoB and parts of the east coast of India. The impacts are interpreted as conservative estimates because of the underestimation of AAOD by the model due to uncertainties in emission inventory and biases in simulated meteorology. Our results demonstrate the direct radiative impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Indian monsoon circulation and call for future studies combining the dynamical and microphysical impacts, which are not considered in this study.

A global model simulation of present and future nitrate aerosols and their direct radiative forcing of climate

Abstract. The ammonia cycle and nitrate particle formation are introduced into the LMDz-INCA (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, version 4 – INteraction with Chemistry and Aerosols, version 3) global model. An important aspect of this new model is that both fine nitrate particle formation in the accumulation mode and coarse nitrate forming on existing dust and sea-salt particles are considered. The model simulates distributions of nitrates and related species in agreement with previous studies and observations. The calculated present-day total nitrate direct radiative forcing since the pre-industrial is −0.056 W m−2. This forcing corresponds to 18% of the sulfate forcing. Fine particles largely dominate the nitrate forcing, representing close to 90% of this value. The model has been used to investigate the future changes in nitrates and direct radiative forcing of climate based on snapshot simulations for the four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and for the 2030, 2050, and 2100 time horizons. Due to a decrease in fossil fuel emissions in the future, the concentration of most of the species involved in the nitrate–ammonium–sulfate system drop by 2100 except for ammonia, which originates from agricultural practices and for which emissions significantly increase in the future. Despite the decrease of nitrate surface levels in Europe and North America, the global burden of accumulation mode nitrates increases by up to a factor of 2.6 in 2100. This increase in ammonium nitrate in the future arises despite decreasing NOx emissions due to increased availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate. The total aerosol direct forcing decreases from its present-day value of −0.234 W m−2 to a range of −0.070 to −0.130 W m−2 in 2100 based on the considered scenario. The direct forcing decreases for all aerosols except for nitrates, for which the direct negative forcing increases to a range of −0.060 to −0.115 W m−2 in 2100. Including nitrates in the radiative forcing calculations increases the total direct forcing of aerosols by a factor of 1.3 in 2000, by a factor of 1.7–2.6 in 2030, by 1.9–4.8 in 2050, and by 6.4–8.6 in 2100. These results show that the agricultural emissions of ammonia will play a key role in the future mitigation of climate change, with nitrates becoming the dominant contributor to the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth during the second half of the 21st century and significantly increasing the calculated aerosol direct forcing. This significant increase in the influence that nitrate exerts on climate in the future will at the same time affect regional air quality and nitrogen deposition to the ecosystem.

Reassessment of satellite‐based estimate of aerosol climate forcing

AbstractLarge uncertainties exist in estimations of aerosol direct radiative forcing and indirect radiative forcing, and the values derived from global modeling differ substantially with satellite‐based calculations. Following the approach of Quaas et al. (2008; hereafter named Quaas2008), we reassess satellite‐based clear‐ and cloudy‐sky radiative forcings and their seasonal variations by employing updated satellite products from 2004 to 2011 in combination with the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) fraction obtained from model simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System‐Chemistry‐Advanced Particle Microphysics (GEOS‐Chem‐APM). Our derived annual mean aerosol clear‐sky forcing (−0.59 W m−2) is lower, while the cloudy‐sky forcing (−0.34 W m−2) is higher than the corresponding results (−0.9 W m−2 and −0.2 W m−2, respectively) reported in Quaas2008. Our study indicates that the derived forcings are sensitive to the anthropogenic AOD fraction and its spatial distribution but insensitive to the temporal resolution used to obtain the regression coefficients, i.e., monthly or seasonal based. The forcing efficiency (i.e., the magnitude per anthropogenic AOD) for the clear‐sky forcing based on this study is 19.9 W m−2, which is about 5% smaller than Quaas2008's value of 21.1 W m−2. In contrast, the efficiency for the cloudy‐sky forcing of this study (11 W m−2) is more than a factor of 2 larger than Quaas2008's value of 4.7 W m−2. Uncertainties tests indicate that anthropogenic fraction of AOD strongly affects the computed forcings while using aerosol index instead of AOD from satellite data as aerosol proxy does not appear to cause any significant differences in regression slopes and derived forcings.

Improving Calculation Accuracies of Accumulation-Mode Fractions Based on Spectral of Aerosol Optical Depths

Anthropogenic aerosols are released into the atmosphere, which cause scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation, thus exerting a direct radiative forcing on the climate system. Anthropogenic Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) calculations are important in the research of climate changes. Accumulation-Mode Fractions (AMFs) as an anthropogenic aerosol parameter, which are the fractions of AODs between the particulates with diameters smaller than 1μm and total particulates, could be calculated by AOD spectral deconvolution algorithm, and then the anthropogenic AODs are obtained using AMFs. In this study, we present a parameterization method coupled with an AOD spectral deconvolution algorithm to calculate AMFs in Beijing over 2011. All of data are derived from AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) website. The parameterization method is used to improve the accuracies of AMFs compared with constant truncation radius method. We find a good correlation using parameterization method with the square relation coefficient of 0.96, and mean deviation of AMFs is 0.028. The parameterization method could also effectively solve AMF underestimate in winter. It is suggested that the variations of Angstrom indexes in coarse mode have significant impacts on AMF inversions.

Anthropogenic aerosol optical depth during days of high haze levels in the Beijing winter

Anthropogenic aerosol optical depth during days of high haze levels in the Beijing winter

Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols over oceans from satellite observations

Anthropogenic aerosols play an important role in the atmospheric energy balance. Anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its accompanying shortwave radiative forcing (RF) are usually simulated by numerical models. Recently, with the development of space-borne instruments and sophisticated retrieval algorithms, it has become possible to estimate aerosol radiative forcing based on satellite observations. In this study, we have estimated shortwave direct radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols over oceans in all-sky conditions by combining clouds and the Single Scanner Footprint data of the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES/SSF) experiment, which provide measurements of upward shortwave fluxes at the top of atmosphere, with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products. We found that globally averaged aerosol radiative forcing over oceans in the clear-sky conditions and all-sky conditions were −1.03±0.48 W m−2 and −0.34 ±0.16 W m−2, respectively. Direct radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols shows large regional and seasonal variations. In some regions and in particular seasons, the magnitude of direct forcing by anthropogenic aerosols can be comparable to the forcing of greenhouse gases. However, it shows that aerosols caused the cooling effect, rather than warming effect from global scale, which is different from greenhouse gases.

Updated estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite observations and comparison against the Hadley Centre climate model

The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) includes a comparison of observation‐based and modeling‐based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative forcing. In this comparison, satellite‐based studies suggest a more negative aerosol direct radiative forcing than modeling studies. A previous satellite‐based study, part of the IPCC comparison, uses aerosol optical depths and accumulation‐mode fractions retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at collection 4. The latest version of MODIS products, named collection 5, improves aerosol retrievals. Using these products, the direct forcing in the shortwave spectrum defined with respect to present‐day natural aerosols is now estimated at −1.30 and −0.65 Wm−2 on a global clear‐sky and all‐sky average, respectively, for 2002. These values are still significantly more negative than the numbers reported by modeling studies. By accounting for differences between present‐day natural and preindustrial aerosol concentrations, sampling biases, and investigating the impact of differences in the zonal distribution of anthropogenic aerosols, good agreement is reached between the direct forcing derived from MODIS and the Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM2‐A over clear‐sky oceans. Results also suggest that satellite estimates of anthropogenic aerosol optical depth over land should be coupled with a robust validation strategy in order to refine the observation‐based estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing. In addition, the complex problem of deriving the aerosol direct radiative forcing when aerosols are located above cloud still needs to be addressed.