Anomalous Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Role of North Atlantic warming in the extremely hot summer of 2023 in North China

Abstract A deadly heatwave hit North China in the summer of 2023, causing severe damage to human health and public infrastructure. However, the underlying physical mechanism is still unknown completely. In this study, we explore the causative role of anomalous sea surface temperatures in three oceans using observation and reanalysis data, as well as partial regression and correlation methods. This heatwave exhibited the longest maximum duration of the past 50 years. According to the probability density function, the maximum temperature also reached an unprecedented high. A long-lived anticyclone dominated North China, causing persistent downward motion and adiabatic heating, enabling the heatwave to form and continue for more than 20 d. The Indian, Pacific, and North Atlantic oceans all experienced extreme warming. However, our results indicate that North Atlantic warming played a decisive role in the occurrence of this heatwave by exciting a Rossby wave train that propagated eastward, generating the long-lived anomalous anticyclone and inducing heatwaves. In comparison, the other two oceans exhibited weak or negative contributions to the heatwave. As the North Atlantic shows an obvious warming trend with increasing global warming, more attention should be paid to its relationship with heatwaves in North China.

Synergistic effects of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on dust activities in North China during the following spring

Abstract. Dust significantly influences global weather and climate by impacting the Earth's radiative balance. Based on reanalysis datasets, this study explores how the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during winter impact dust activities in North China in the following spring. It is found that both the NAO and the ENSO significantly affect dust activities in North China, especially during their negative phases. When both are in their negative phases, their combined impact on dust activities exceeds that of each factor individually. The previous winter's NAO notably affects sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic, associated with an anomalous tripole SST pattern. These SST anomalies persist into the following spring due to their inherent persistence, inducing an anomalous atmospheric teleconnection wave train that influences dust activities in North China. The ENSO, on the one hand, directly impacts dust activities in North China by modulating circulation over the western North Pacific. Moreover, the ENSO enhances the NAO's effect on North Atlantic SST, which explains the synergistic effects of the ENSO and NAO on dust activities in North China. This study elucidates the combined role of the NAO and ENSO in influencing dust activities in North China, providing one-season-ahead signals for predicting spring dust activities in North China.

Ocean Complexity Shapes Sea Surface Temperature Variability in a CESM2 Coupled Model Hierarchy

Abstract To improve understanding of ocean processes impacting monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variability, we analyze a Community Earth System Model, version 2, hierarchy in which models vary only in their degree of ocean complexity. The most realistic ocean is a dynamical ocean model, as part of a fully coupled model (FCM). The next most realistic ocean, from a mechanically decoupled model (MDM), is like the FCM but excludes anomalous wind stress–driven ocean variability. The simplest ocean is a slab ocean model (SOM). Inclusion of a buoyancy coupled dynamic ocean as in the MDM, which includes temperature advection and vertical mixing absent in the SOM, leads to dampening of SST variance everywhere and reduced persistence of SST anomalies in the high latitudes and equatorial Pacific compared to the SOM. Inclusion of anomalous wind stress–driven ocean dynamics as in the FCM leads to higher SST variance and longer persistence time scales in most regions compared to the MDM. The net role of the dynamic ocean, as an overall dampener or amplifier of anomalous SST variance and persistence, is regionally dependent. Notably, we find that efforts to reduce the complexity of the ocean models in the SOM and MDM configurations result in changes in the magnitude of the thermodynamic forcing of SST variability compared to the FCM. These changes, in part, stem from differences in the seasonally varying mixed layer depth and should be considered when attempting to quantify the relative contribution of certain ocean mechanisms to differences in SST variability between the models.

Predictability and prediction skill of summertime East/Japan Sea surface temperature events

The East/Japan Sea (EJS), a marginal sea of the Northwestern Pacific, is one of the ocean regions showing the most rapid warming and greatest increases in ocean heatwaves over the last several decades. Predictability and skillful prediction of the summer season EJS variability are crucial, given the increasing severity of ocean temperature events impacting fisheries and reinforcing climate conditions like the East Asian rainy season, which in turn affects adjacent high-population density areas over East Asia. We use observations and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) seasonal forecast system to investigate the summertime EJS Sea Surface Temperature (SST) predictability and prediction skill. The observations and seasonal prediction system show that the summer season EJS SST can be closely linked to the previous winter air-sea coupling and predictable 8–9 months in advance. The SPEAR seasonal prediction system demonstrates skillful forecast of EJS SST events from summer to late fall, with added skill for long-lead forecasts initialized in winter. We find that winter large-scale atmospheric circulations linked to Barents Sea variability can induce persistent surface wind anomalies and corresponding northward Ekman heat transport over the East China Sea. The ocean advection anomalies that enter the EJS in prior seasons appear to play a role in developing anomalous SST during summer, along with instantaneous atmospheric forcing, as the source of long-lead predictability. Our findings provide potential applications of large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in understanding and predicting seasonal variability of East Asian marginal seas.

Enhanced interaction between ENSO and the South Atlantic subtropical dipole over the past four decades

AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, as represented by the Southern Atlantic subtropical dipole (SASD), and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean, identified by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Contrary to the previously held notion of a weak relationship between SASD and ENSO as suggested by earlier literature, our analysis reveals a substantial inverse correlation between the two. This correlation exhibits significant multi‐decadal variability, which has notably intensified over the most recent two decades compared with the preceding two decades. This intensification in the SASD–ENSO inverse correlation may be attributed to the shift in ENSO regime from predominance of eastern Pacific El Niño to central Pacific El Niño events around the turn of the century. This transition triggers wavetrains that propagate along different paths, consequently influencing the South Atlantic subtropical high and inducing alterations in anomalous SST patterns in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. These findings advance our comprehension of the interactions between South Atlantic and Pacific SST variations, which strongly influence rainfall patterns, particularly in South America and southern Africa. Understanding such teleconnection holds promise for improving sub‐seasonal to seasonal precipitation predictions in these regions.

Impact of tropical waves on extreme rainfall events during coastal El Niño

Abstract We examine the relationship between convectively coupled waves, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extreme precipitation over the western coast of South America during Coastal El Niño (COEN) events for the period spanning 1980–2023. Two types of COEN can be distinguished: (i) that occur in association with large-scale El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g. 1982/83, 1997/98), and (ii) more ‘local’ COEN–when anomalous sea surface temperature take place over the far-eastern equatorial Pacific only (e.g. 2017, 2023). During both types of COEN events, increased rainfall along the western coast of South America is associated with intense Kelvin wave activity. In addition, westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves, Rossby waves, and the MJO exhibit increased activity during local COEN events. During the recent extreme COEN 2017 and 2023, heavy rainfall occurred alongside significant WIGs, Kelvin, Rossby, and MJO events with unprecedented amplitudes propagating along western South America. Our results suggest that the probability of extreme precipitation under Coastal ENSO in western South America is strongly modulated by wave activity.

Seasonal predictions of summer compound humid heat extremes in the southeastern United States driven by sea surface temperatures

Humid heat extreme (HHE) is a type of compound extreme weather event that poses severe risks to human health. Skillful forecasts of HHE months in advance are crucial for developing strategies to enhance community resilience to extreme events1,2. This study demonstrates that the frequency of summertime HHE in the southeastern United States (SEUS) can be skillfully predicted 0–1 months in advance using the SPEAR (Seamless system for Prediction and EArth system Research) seasonal forecast system. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) basin are identified as the primary driver of this prediction skill. The responses of large-scale atmospheric circulation and winds to anomalous warm SSTs in the TNA favor the transport of heat and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to the SEUS. This research underscores the role of slowly varying sea surface conditions in modifying large-scale environments, thereby contributing to the skillful prediction of HHE in the SEUS. The results of this study have potential applications in the development of early warning systems for HHE.

What Determines the East Asian Winter Temperature during El Niño?—Role of the Early Onset El Niño and Tropical Indian Ocean Warming

Abstract Atmospheric teleconnections from the Pacific El Niño are key to determining the East Asian winter climate. Using the database for policy decision-making for future climate change (d4PDF) large-ensemble simulations, the present study investigates a mechanism for the warm and cold East Asian winters during El Niño with a focus on atmospheric teleconnections triggered by anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific. Our results show that the western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern plays a primary role in the warm winters in East Asia. The WP pattern tends to appear in years when both an early El Niño and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode develop in boreal autumn. In those years, the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) strongly warms in the following winter, forming a distinct zonal contrast in precipitation anomalies over the tropical Indo-Pacific through a reduced Walker circulation. The Rossby wave source anomalies indicate that the WP pattern is associated with the weakened Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. By contrast, the WP pattern does not dominate in the cold winters due to the absence of strong TIO warming. The present study proposes a mechanism that promotes the excitation of the WP pattern through the upper-troposphere divergence in East Asia associated with the Walker circulation modulated by the tropical Indo-Pacific interbasin interaction. Significance Statement The East Asian winter temperature variability is controlled not only by the strong atmospheric internal variability in the midlatitudes and high latitudes but also by remote forcing from the tropical ocean. Our study investigates how El Niño exerts diverse impacts on the East Asian winter temperature, depending on where atmospheric convection intensifies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. Our results show that an intense warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and the early development of El Niño are the major factors for warm winters in East Asia. Given that a precursor of the intense Indian Ocean warming appears in boreal autumn, our findings should contribute to the improvement of seasonal prediction for the East Asian winter climate.

A quantitative explanation for the large impacts of El Niño during its decaying stage

Abstract This study examines the comparative atmospheric circulation and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) relationships during the developing and decaying stages of El Niño from a meridional structure standpoint. Results indicate a transition in the variability of the first two modes of the Hadley Circulation (HC) during these stages, with the first mode exhibiting a larger explained variance in the decaying stage. The regime change in HC variability corresponds to underlying anomalous SST distributions, as confirmed by sensitive experiments. Quantitative assessment reveals the HC-SST response amplitudes are approximately two times stronger during the decaying stage compared to the developing stage. Employing the Kuo-Eliassen (KE) equation, diabatic heating anomalies during the decaying stage explain the difference in air-sea response intensity between the two stages. Diabatic heating variations are identified as the primary contributor to amplification or reduction of air-sea response intensity during the respective El Niño stages, providing insights into the different air-sea processes throughout the El Niño lifespan.

Role of the Boreal Autumn Antarctic Oscillation in Controlling the Winter Frequency of Severe Pollution Events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, China

AbstractThe Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), which is the main mode of extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere, also has a substantial effect on the Northern Hemisphere climate. We investigated the influence of the early AAO on the frequency of late severe pollution events (SPEF) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (SPEFBTH) of China during winter. The results show that the winter (December–January–February) SPEFBTH is negatively correlated with the AAO from the previous autumn (August–September–October). The controlling mechanism can be briefly described as follows: the autumn AAO is positively correlated with the mid‐latitude sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic Ocean. The SST preserves the autumn anomaly signal into the following winter. This anomalous SST regulates changes in the tropical western Indian Ocean–Intertropical Convergence Zone (IN–ITCZ) via air–sea coupling. Subsequently, as a response to the IN–ITCZ anomalies, anomalous wave trains are excited in the upper troposphere from the tropical western Indian Ocean to East Asia. In addition, the local meridional circulation is modulated; therefore, the circulation field and other meteorological elements favorable for the SPEFBTH appear and exacerbate the SPEFBTH. This study describes a new physical mechanism for the pathway of the AAO influence on subsequent SPEFBTH and finds a predictable source in the Southern Hemisphere air–sea system.

Generation Mechanisms of SST Anomalies Associated with the Canonical El Niño Focusing on Vertical Mixing

Abstract The mean vertical advection of anomalous vertical temperature gradient is considered the dominant generation mechanism of positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the canonical El Niño. However, most past studies had a residual term in their heat budget analysis and/or did not quantify the role of vertical mixing even though active vertical turbulent mixing in the upper ocean is observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific. To quantitatively assess the importance of vertical mixing, a mixed layer heat budget analysis is performed using a hindcast simulation forced by daily mean atmospheric reanalysis data. It is found that when the mixed layer depth is defined as the depth at which potential density increases by 0.125 kg m−3 from the sea surface, the development of positive SST anomalies is predominantly governed by reductions in the cooling by vertical mixing, and their magnitude is much larger than those by vertical advection. The anomalous warming by vertical mixing may be partly explained by an anomalous deepening of the thermocline that leads to a decrease in the vertical temperature gradient, giving rise to suppression of the climatological cooling by vertical mixing. Also, an anomalously thick mixed layer reduces sensitivity to cooling by the mean vertical mixing and contributes to the anomalous SST warming. On the other hand, the dominant negative feedbacks are attributed to both anomalous surface heat loss and anomalous deepening of the mixed layer that weakens warming by the mean surface heat flux.

Unravelling the signatures of submarine groundwater discharge and seawater intrusion along the coastal plains of Odisha, India: a multi-proxy approach.

Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD) and Seawater Intrusion (SWI) are two contrary hydrological processes that occur across the land-sea continuum and understanding their nature is essential for management and development of coastal groundwater resource. Present study has attempted to demarcate probable zones of SGD and SWI along highly populated Odisha coastal plains which is water stressed due to indiscriminate-exploitation of groundwater leading to salinization and fresh groundwater loss from the alluvial aquifers. A multi-proxy investigation approach including decadal groundwater leveldynamics, LANDSAT derived sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and in-situ physicochemical analysis (pH, EC, TDS, salinity and temperature) of porewater, groundwater and seawater were used to locate the SGD and SWI sites. A total of 340 samples for four seasons (85 samples i.e., 30 porewater, 30 seawater and 25 groundwater in each season) were collected and their in-situ parameters were measured at every 1-2km gap along ~ 145km coastline of central Odisha (excluding the estuarine region). Considering high groundwater EC values (> 3000 μS/cm), three probable SWI and low porewater salinities (< 32 ppt in pre- and < 25 ppt in post-monsoons), four probable SGD zones were identified. The identified zones were validated with observed high positive hydraulic gradient (> 10m) at SGD and negative hydraulic gradient (< 0m) at SWI sites along with anomalous SST (colder in pre- and warmer in post-monsoon) near probable SGD locations. This study is first of its kind along the Odisha coast and may act as initial basis for subsequent investigations on fresh-saline interaction along the coastal plains where environmental integrity supports the livelihood of coastal communities and the ecosystem.

Response of sea surface temperature to atmospheric rivers

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), responsible for extreme weather conditions, are mid-latitude systems that can cause significant damage to coastal areas. While forecasting ARs beyond two weeks remains a challenge, past research suggests potential benefits may come from properly accounting for the changes in sea surface temperature (SST) through air–sea interactions. In this paper, we investigate the impact of ARs on SST over the North Pacific by analyzing 25 years of ocean reanalysis data using an SST budget equation. We show that in the region of strong ocean modification, ocean dynamics can offset over 100% of the anomalous SST warming that would otherwise arise from atmospheric forcing. Among all ocean processes, ageostrophic advection and vertical mixing (diffusion and entrainment) are the most important factors in modifying the SST tendency response. The SST tendency response to ARs varies spatially. For example, in coastal California, the driver of enhanced SST warming is the reduction in ageostrophic advection due to anomalous southerly winds. Moreover, there is a large region where the SST shows a warming response to ARs due to the overall reduction in the total clouds and subsequent increase in total incoming shortwave radiation.

The South American precipitation trends under (or not) El Niño‐Southern Oscillation influences and relationship with large‐scale circulation

AbstractThe precipitation trend patterns in South America (SA) are determined using trend empirical orthogonal function analysis for the 1951–2016 period. The associated large‐scale tropical and extratropical anomalous circulation patterns are also examined. The words “total” and “residual” refer to the monthly anomalies and monthly anomalies without the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, respectively. The total precipitation features a positive trend in southeastern SA (SESA, southern Brazil, Uruguay, most of eastern Argentina) and northern Chile, and a negative trend over central‐eastern Brazil and central Amazonia. The residual precipitation shows an increased positive trend over most of the coastal extension of northern SA and Colombia; a weak positive trend over southern Brazil, northeastern Argentina, and northern Chile; and a negative trend over central‐eastern SA and western Amazonia. The differences between the total and residual precipitation trend patterns in tropical SA is explained as responses to total and residual zonally asymmetric anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, respectively. The total SST pattern along the equatorial Pacific configures the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which impacts ENSO variability and as response intensifies the Walker circulation. Without the ENSO, the Walker cell is mainly driven by the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, which configure residual asymmetric anomalous warming. Furthermore, the warming in the equatorial Indian and eastern Pacific Oceans, in the presence of ENSO, induces a Rossby wave train‐type anomalous pattern that extends across the South Pacific into SA and modulates the atmospheric anomalous circulation over SESA. In this region, an anomalous anticyclonic accompanied by an intensified South American Low‐Level Jet induces a moisture transport to SESA. This anticyclone is also observed in the absence of ENSO but is weaker. The results suggest the importance of ocean warming in the western Pacific‐Indian in the modulation of extratropical teleconnections to SESA in the tropical ocean warming scenario.

The Role of the Subtropical and Extratropical Southern Hemisphere Anomalous Sea Surface Temperature in the Trans‐Seasonal Influence of Southern Annular Mode on Rainfall Over Southeastern South America

AbstractThe current study explores the linkage and possible mechanisms of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) with rainfall variability over southeastern South America (SESA). The findings indicate that the preceding May SAM can modulate the subsequent rainfall over the SESA region in September‐October‐November (SON), independent of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal. Further analysis suggests that the SAM‐rainfall relationship is mainly due to the response of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subtropical and extratropical Southern Hemisphere to SAM variability via air‐sea interactions. Such SST anomalies persist to the subsequent SON and stimulate an upstream wave train extending into the study region from the South Pacific. Such wave patterns form a cyclone anomaly over SESA, indicating strong subsidence and reduced convection over the region. Meanwhile, the low‐level anomalous cyclone and anticyclone located over the subtropical South Atlantic (on the coast of the study region) are associated with easterly winds to the South (North) of the anomalous cyclone (anticyclone), which advect colder and drier air into the study region due to the cold SST over the subtropical South Atlantic and leading to increased moisture scarcity and decreased rainfall over SESA. Besides, model results based on the joint climate indices (i.e., SAM, ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) revealed a satisfactory estimate of the SON rainfall compared with either single index, indicating that the SAM can be one of the precursors of the SESA rainfall, besides ENSO and IOD.

Tropical ocean teleconnections with gross primary productivity of monsoon-Asia

The intricate oceanic climate interactions with terrestrial primary production of Asian ecosystems exert crucial social-economical-environmental repercussions. Yet, a holistic understanding of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the gross primary productivity (GPP) variations of monsoon-Asia remains constrained. This study provides a statistical framework demonstrating how SST perturbations in the tropics influence GPP fluctuations in monsoon-Asia by modulating hydrothermal conditions of different climate system components. Observation evidence explicitly illustrated the characteristic anomalous SST signatures of positive and negative GPP anomalies in South and Southeast Asia during June–August. The SST anomalies of the central-eastern tropical Pacific showed a robust negative impact on the GPP variability of South-Asia. The GPP alterations in maritime-Southeast-Asia exhibited strong connections with SST anomalies of the western Pacific (positive) and eastern equatorial Pacific (negative). The oceanic signals in the GPP variability of South-Asia and maritime-Southeast-Asia mirrored canonical El Niño and La Niña patterns. The detected SST–GPP link is feasible through large-scale atmospheric circulation variability and the consequent regional modulation of heat and moisture fluxes. The anomalous strengthening (weakening) of Walker cell enhances (reduces) water availability to plants for photosynthesis during the La Niña (El Niño) phase of the ENSO cycle and thus elevates (lowers) GPP in South-Asia and Maritime-southeast-Asia. In contrast, the enhanced GPP anomaly in mainland-Southeast-Asia depicts signs of canonical La Niña and Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) teleconnections. The positive impact of IOSD was through the modulation of the Mascarene High and the consequent impact on the monsoon. Meanwhile, decreased GPP bears the imprint of El Niño Modoki and warm tropical Indian Ocean SSTs. The atmospheric teleconnections demonstrated the delayed impact of El Niño Modoki on GPP variability through the Indian Ocean capacitor effect. Our findings could be instrumental in forecasting the probable effects on vegetation growth in monsoon-Asia associated with high-frequency tropical oceanic changes.

Characteristics and mechanism of winter marine heatwaves in the cold tongue region of the South China Sea

Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) are persistent anomalous sea surface temperature warming events that can affect the marine ecological environment and ecosystems. Here, we study the winter MHWs in the cold tongue region of the South China Sea (SCS) from 1982 to 2022. Our results show that the winter MHWs in the cold tongue region have the strongest cumulative intensity in the SCS, exceeding 45°C·day/time. These strong MHWs are due to their high mean intensity and long duration. Significant interannual variations are observed in these MHWs, with extreme MHW events occurring in the El Niño winters of 97/98 and 15/16. By employing a mixed layer heat budget analysis, we reveal that the extreme MHW event in the winter of 97/98 is caused primarily by the surface heat flux term, and secondarily by the vertical entrainment term. While the 15/16 extreme event is caused by a combination of the surface heat flux term, the vertical entrainment term and the horizontal advection term.

An attempt using equatorial waves to predict tropical sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the Atlantic zonal mode

IntroductionThe forecast for anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) events associated with Atlantic zonal mode, also known as Atlantic Niño/Niña, is full of challenge for both statistical and dynamical prediction models. MethodsThis study combines SST, wind and equatorial wave signal to construct a linear model, aiming to evaluate the potential of equatorial waves in extending the lead time of a skilful prediction for Atlantic Niño/Niña events. Wave-induced geopotential simulated by linear ocean models and potential energy flux calculated using a group-velocity-based wave energy flux scheme are involved to capture the signal of equatorial waves in the model establishment. ResultsThe constructed linear prediction model has demonstrated comparable prediction skill for the SST anomaly to the dynamical models of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) during the test period (1992-2016). Compared with the statistical forecast using SST persistence, the model notably improves the six-month-lead prediction (Anomaly correlation coefficient increases from 0.07 to 0.28), which owes to the conservation of wave energy in the narrow Atlantic basin that the Rossby waves reflected in the eastern boundary will transfer the energy back to the central equatorial basin and again affect the SST there. ConclusionThis study offers a streamlined model and a straightforward demonstration of leveraging wave energy transfer route for the prediction of Atlantic Niño/Niñas.

2023 Record marine heat waves: coral reef bleaching HotSpot maps reveal global sea surface temperature extremes, coral mortality, and ocean circulation changes

Abstract Coral reefs, the most sensitive ecosystem to high temperature, are on the precipice of mass extinction from global warming [1, 2]. 2023 was the hottest year in recorded history on land and in the sea, with dramatic and unexpected temperature increases [3, 4]. Coral Reef Bleaching HotSpot maps provide unique insight into global ocean circulation changes in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing that caused dramatic global temperature rises [1, 2]. The highest excess daily air temperatures recorded in 175 countries, as well as the most prolonged excessive sea surface temperatures, were centered around Jamaica. 2023 marked the worst coral reef bleaching yet in the Northern Hemisphere, with the Southern Hemisphere poised to follow in early 2024. The HotSpot maps strongly suggest accelerated ocean poleward heat transport, slowdown in upwelling, and decreased deep water formation linked to sharply increased 2023 anomalous sea surface and air temperatures. The 2023 distribution of severe heat and bleaching follows both spatial patterns and temporal trends first shown from a baseline 1982–2001 global SST trend analysis [5]. Increased warming of both hot and cold ocean currents shows that horizontal mixing of tropical heat to the poles is accelerating, and that vertical mixing with cold deep water is slowing down, leading to increased ocean stratification, which will cause sea temperature to increase more rapidly and CO2 mixing with the deep ocean to decrease.

Last millennium hurricane activity linked to endogenous climate variability

Despite increased Atlantic hurricane risk, projected trends in hurricane frequency in the warming climate are still highly uncertain, mainly due to short instrumental record that limits our understanding of hurricane activity and its relationship to climate. Here we extend the record to the last millennium using two independent estimates: a reconstruction from sedimentary paleohurricane records and a statistical model of hurricane activity using sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We find statistically significant agreement between the two estimates and the late 20th century hurricane frequency is within the range seen over the past millennium. Numerical simulations using a hurricane-permitting climate model suggest that hurricane activity was likely driven by endogenous climate variability and linked to anomalous SSTs of warm Atlantic and cold Pacific. Volcanic eruptions can induce peaks in hurricane activity, but such peaks would likely be too weak to be detected in the proxy record due to large endogenous variability.