Anomalous Diabatic Heating Research Articles

The contribution of Arabian Sea warming to decreasing summer precipitation in the northern Greater Mekong Subregion

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) is one of the world's most important agricultural regions. Over recent decades, the declining trend in precipitation has caused more frequent droughts over the northern plateau of the GMS, and this has led to a significant reduction in agricultural productivity. These drought events can also affect agriculture within the middle and lower parts of the Mekong River basin. To reveal the main causes of the decline in precipitation, this study investigates interdecadal variations in summer precipitation over the northern GMS during 1979–2022. Results indicate that summer conditions over the northern GMS entered a relatively dry period after the late 1990s. The interdecadal decrease in summer precipitation is closely associated with the warming of the northern Arabian Sea (AS), which induces a cyclonic anomaly that enhances local precipitation and associated diabatic heating. The anomalous diabatic heating induces a downstream Rossby wave train that intensifies the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern and causes the South Asian high (SAH) to extend farther southeastwards. The southeastward-displaced SAH induces easterly anomalies over the northern Bay of Bengal (BOB) that weaken the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) southwesterly flows and reduce moisture transport from the northern BOB to the northern GMS. The southeastward displacement of the SAH also causes anomalous descent over the northern GMS. Both conditions result in reduced precipitation over the northern GMS. Numerical experiments substantiate the proposed modulating role of AS warming in the interdecadal decrease in summer precipitation over the northern GMS.

Subseasonal relationship between the zonal oscillation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the South Asia High

This study investigates relationship between the zonal oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the South Asia High (SAH). As the WPSH extends westward, in upper-troposphere the SAH shows conspicuous eastward extension in 10–25-day period, while weak zonal movement in 25–50-day period. In 10–25-day period, the zonal oscillation of the SAH lags the movement of the WPSH by about one day. It is closely related with a westward moving anomalous high from the south of the Japan to the continent. Further analysis shows that the WPSH-related precipitation plays the significant role in the variation of this anomalous high. Accompanied with the westward extension of the WPSH, in lower-troposphere an anomalous anticyclonic circulation occupies the western Pacific. It enhances the moisture transportation to the east side of the SAH, causing above-normal precipitation here. With the enhancement of the precipitation, the anomalous diabatic heating induces divergence anomaly in upper-troposphere, and further stimulates anomalous high by the horizontal divergence effect, leading to the eastward extension of the SAH. In 25–50-day period, due to the weaker convective anomaly, the WPSH is unable to extend farther westward. As the result, less moisture is transported and the anomalous moisture convergence is restricted to the north of Yangtze River, and so is the precipitation. At the east side of the SAH it is dominated by the anomalous cooling, unfavorable for the stimulation of the anomalous high, and thus, the zonal oscillation of the SAH.

Unraveling the Indian monsoon’s role in fueling the unprecedented 2022 Marine Heatwave in the Western North Pacific

An unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) event occurred in the middle-high latitudes of the western North Pacific during the summer of 2022. We demonstrate that excessive precipitation thousands of kilometers away fuels this extreme MHW event in July 2022. In the upper atmosphere, a persistent atmospheric blocking system, forming over the MHW region, reduces cloud cover and increases shortwave radiation at the ocean surface, leading to high sea surface temperatures. Atmospheric perturbations induced by latent heat release from the extreme precipitation in the Indian summer monsoon region enhance this atmospheric blocking through the propagation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves. Our hypothesis is verified by using a numerical model that is forced with the observed atmospheric anomalous diabatic heating. This study sheds light on how a subtropical extreme event can fuel another extreme event at middle-high latitudes through an atmospheric teleconnection.

Atmospheric modes fiddling the simulated ENSO impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the Northwest Pacific

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is crucial to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, most state-of-the-art climate models exhibit a consistent pattern of uncertainty in the simulated TC genesis frequency (TCGF) over the WNP in ENSO phases. Here, we analyze large ensemble simulations of TC-resolved climate models to identify the source of this uncertainty. Results show that large uncertainty appears in the South China Sea and east of the Philippines, primarily arising from two distinct atmospheric modes: the Matsuno-Gill-mode (MG-mode) and the Pacific-Japan-like pattern (PJ-mode). These two modes are closely associated with anomalous diabatic heating linked to tropical precipitation bias in model simulations. By conditionally constraining either of the modes, we can significantly reduce model uncertainty in simulating the dipole structure of the TCGF anomalies, confirming that it is the atmospheric circulation bias in response to tropical precipitation bias that causes uncertainty in the simulated WNP TCGF.

Synoptic characteristics of heatwave events in Australia during austral summer of 1950/1951–2019/2020

AbstractAustralia has experienced increasing number of heatwave events (HWEs) in recent decades. This study aims to examine key synoptic features of austral summer HWEs over Australia during 1950/1951–2019/2020. Based on ERA5‐reanalysis and rotated empirical orthogonal functions, HWEs in Australia are categorized into four types according to where they often occur together: East Australia (EA), North Australia (NA), West Australia (WA) and Southeast Australia (SEA). Our results reveal that while anomalous anticyclones at 500 hPa level are the typical synoptic circulations responsible for HWEs of each subregion, their specific mechanisms differ between subregions. The atmospheric heat budget at 850 hPa level shows that anomalous diabatic heating promotes the onset of HWEs in each subregion. While anomalous vertical advection and adiabatic heating due to the anomalous subsidence play an important role in maintaining HWEs till their demise in NA, they only help trigger HWEs in EA, SEA and WA. Our results also suggest that anomalous advection of climatological mean temperature is important to both the onset and persistence of HWEs in EA and SEA, while it only helps sustain (trigger) HWEs in NA (WA). The advection of anomalous temperature also acts to trigger HWEs in EA, SEA and WA. On the surface, upward long‐wave radiation and sensible heat flux contribute to the development of HWEs, whereas both of them are reduced in SEA due to the enhanced anomalous cyclones near the surface and the decreased land–air temperature difference. These findings help improve understanding of the synoptic characteristics and distinctive mechanisms of HWEs in different subregions of Australia.

Enhanced ENSO-Unrelated Summer Variability in the Indo–Western Pacific under Global Warming

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important but not the only source of interannual variability over the Indo–western Pacific. Non-ENSO forced variability in the region has received recent attention because of the implications for rainy-season prediction. Using a 35-member CESM1 Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and 30 CMIP6 models, this study shows that the ensemble means project intensified interannual variability for precipitation, low-level winds, and sea level pressure under global warming, associated with the enhanced large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) over the tropical northwestern (NW) Pacific after the ENSO signal is removed. A decomposition based on the column water vapor budget reveals that enhanced precipitation variability is due to the increased background specific humidity. The resultant anomalous diabatic heating intensifies the AAC, which further strengthens the precipitation anomalies. Over the tropical NW Pacific, the wind-induced evaporative cooling on the southeastern flank of the AAC is countered by the increased shortwave radiation due to the strengthened precipitation reduction. Tropospheric temperature anomalies in the ensemble means show no significant change, suggesting no apparent change of the interbasin positive feedback between the AAC and northern Indian Ocean SST. Intermodel analysis based on CMIP6 reveals that models with a larger increase in ENSO-unrelated precipitation variability over the NW Pacific are associated with stronger background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, due to the modulated Walker and Hadley circulations.

The Atmospheric Response to Meridional Shifts of the Gulf Stream SST Front and Its Dependence on Model Resolution

Abstract The Gulf Stream (GS) plays a key role in shaping the North Atlantic climate. Moreover, the associated sea surface temperature (SST) front undergoes interannual-to-decadal variability that is thought to force significant atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, general circulation models do not accurately reproduce the atmospheric response to SST front variability as estimated from observations. In this work we analyze the atmospheric response to the GS SST front (GSF) shifts in a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs (1950–2014). The atmospheric response is found to be resolution dependent. Only the high-resolution simulations produce a wintertime response similar to observed anomalies. More specifically, (i) analysis of the atmospheric thermodynamic balance close to the GSF showed that the anomalous diabatic heating associated to the GSF displacement is mainly balanced by vertical motion and by meridional transient eddy heat transport (not the case for low-resolution models), while (ii) the large-scale response includes a meridional shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet and storm track homodirectional to the GSF displacement. This atmospheric response is accompanied by changes in low-level baroclinicity close to and north of the GSF, resulting from the oceanic forcing and the zonal atmospheric circulation anomalies respectively. The low-level baroclinicity anomalies lead to changes in baroclinic eddy activity and, ultimately, in the jet via eddy–mean flow interaction. Considering the two-way nature of air–sea interactions, using historical atmosphere-only simulations is a powerful way to isolate the impact of realistic oceanic variability on the atmosphere. Our results suggest that interannual-to-decadal predictability may be higher than what low-resolution models currently indicate.

Modulation of Coupled Modes of Tibetan Plateau Heating and Indian Summer Monsoon on Summer Rainfall over Central Asia

Abstract It has been suggested that summer rainfall over central Asia (CA) is significantly correlated with the summer thermal distribution of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). However, relatively few studies have investigated their synergistic effects of different distribution. This study documents the significant correlations between precipitation in CA and the diabatic heating of TP and the ISM in summer based on the results of statistical analysis and numerical simulation. Summer precipitation in CA is dominated by two water vapor transport branches from the south that are related to the two primary modes of anomalous diabatic heating distribution contributed by the TP and ISM precipitation, that is, the “+−” dipole mode in the southeastern TP and the Indian subcontinent (IS), and the “+−+” tripole mode in the southeastern TP, the IS, and southern India. Both modes exhibit obvious midlatitude Silk Road pattern (SRP) wave trains with cyclone anomalies over CA, but with different transient and stationary eddies over South Asia. The different locations of anomalous anticyclones over India govern two water vapor transport branches to CA, which are from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The water vapor flux climbs while being transported northward and can be transported to CA with the cooperation of cyclonic circulation. The convergent water vapor and ascending motion caused by cyclonic anomalies favor the precipitation in CA. Further analysis corroborates the negative south Indian Ocean dipole in February could affect the tripole mode distribution of TP heating and ISM via the atmospheric circulation, water vapor transport, and anomalous Hadley cell circulation. The results indicate a reliable prediction reference for summer precipitation in CA.

Forcing Convection to Aggregate Using Diabatic Heating Perturbations.

Tropical deep convection can aggregate into large clusters, which can have impacts on the local humidity and precipitation. Sea surface temperature (SST) gradients have been shown to organize convection, yet there has been little work done to investigate the impact of diabatic heating perturbations in the atmosphere on the aggregation of convection. Here we investigate how anomalous diabatic heating of the atmospheric column, through an idealized aerosol plume, affects the existence and mechanisms of convective aggregation in non‐rotating, global radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations. We show that the aerosol forcing has the ability to increase the degree of aggregation, especially at lower SSTs. Detailed investigation shows that the diabatic heating source incites a thermally driven circulation, forced by the shortwave perturbation. The increase in aggregation is caused in part by this circulation, and in part by the longwave heating anomalies occurring due to the surface convergence of moisture and convection. At higher SSTs, longwave feedbacks are crucial for the aggregation of convection, even with the shortwave heating perturbation. At lower SSTs, convection is able to aggregate with the shortwave perturbation in the absence of longwave feedbacks. These perturbations provide a link to studying the effects of absorbing aerosol plumes on convection, for example during the Indian monsoon season. We argue that, as there is aggregation for plumes with realistic aerosol absorption optical depths, this could be an analogue for real‐world organization in regions with high pollution.

Remote influence of the interannual variability of the Australian summer monsoon on wintertime climate in East Asia and the western North Pacific

AbstractAnomalous convective activity in the Tropics forced by sea surface temperature (SST) variability exerts significant remote influence that provides a basis for seasonal prediction in the extratropics. In austral summer convective activity exhibits pronounced interannual variability over northern Australia (NAUS), which is, however, unlikely forced by SST anomalies but essentially a manifestation of internal variability of the Australian summer monsoon (AUSM) system. Based on observational data, the present study reveals its significant remote impacts on the wintertime climate in East Asia and the western North Pacific. The anomalous AUSM excites the Western Pacific (WP) pattern, as confirmed through an atmospheric general circulation model experiment. Through this cross-equatorial teleconnection, the enhanced AUSM leads to the strengthening of the East Asian winter monsoon with a colder winter over the Korean Peninsula and western Japan and reduced precipitation over southern China. The Okhotsk sea-ice extent decreases under warm anomalies and weakened offshore winds. The weakened AUSM leads to the same anomalies but with the opposite polarities. Our observational data analysis and numerical experiments reveal that the WP-like anomalies are excited by the propagation of stationary Rossby waves generated by anomalous upper-level divergent wind from NAUS that extends into the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet. The climatological Hadley circulation is essential in this process. The concomitant anomalous diabatic heating over East Asia and feedback forcing by transient eddies along the Pacific stormtrack act to further amplify the WP-like response.

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictability of Onset Dates of South China Sea Summer Monsoon: A Perspective of Meridional Temperature Gradient

AbstractThe onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) has traditionally been ascribed to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on an interannual timescale, but the two do not correspond in some years. The present study applies harmonic analysis on the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) in mid–upper troposphere over South China Sea (SCS) and decomposes the onset process to be a slow-varying seasonal cycle and transient subseasonal component. The ENSO-related air temperature anomaly in the southern SCS provides seasonal predictability of SCSSM onset by a stable and robust relationship between ENSO and MTG seasonal cycle. However, in the northern SCS, the MTG is regulated by an intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of extratropical air temperature with a significant 10–30-day period. This ISO originates over the western TP, then propagates eastward and gets enhanced by anomalous diabatic heating due to spring rainfall anomaly over South China, as a result of subseasonal thermal forcing of TP. When the ISO arrives to the north of the SCS, it directly changes the tropospheric temperature to modulate the MTG. Meanwhile, the upper-level circulation associated with the ISO alters the meridional potential vorticity advection and pumping effect, followed by the anomalous low-level westerly wind and monsoon convection over the SCS. The SCSSM onset is evidently disrupted from its seasonal cycle when this ISO is more active. Since the independence of its intensity from ENSO, this extratropical ISO over TP and South China provides additional subseasonal predictability of the onset dates of the SCSSM.

Madden–Julian Oscillation–Induced Suppression of Northeast Pacific Convection Increases U.S. Tornadogenesis

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on U.S. tornadogenesis using atmospheric reanalysis and model experiments. Our analysis shows that the impact of MJO on U.S. tornadogenesis is most significant in May–July and during MJO phases 3–4 and 5–6 (P3456). These MJO phases are characterized by anomalous ascending motion over the Maritime Continent (MC) and anomalous subsidence over the northeast Pacific (EP), generating anomalous diabatic heating and cooling, respectively. These in turn generate large-scale atmospheric conditions conducive to tornadogenesis in the United States, enhancing the North American low-level jet (NALLJ) and thus increasing the influx of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to the United States and increasing the low-level wind shear and convective available potential energy along its path. Conversely, during MJO phases 1–2 and 7–8, the opposite patterns of atmospheric anomalies appear over the United States producing unfavorable environments for U.S. tornadogenesis. We further investigate the underlying mechanism for MJO-induced atmospheric circulations conducive to U.S. tornadogenesis using a linear baroclinic model (LBM). The LBM is forced by diabatic heating over the MC and cooling over the EP, which characterizes the P3456 MJO phase. The model experiment reproduces an anomalous ridge over the southern United States and associated anomalous low-level anticyclone that enhances the NALLJ and increases tornadic environmental parameters. Additional sensitivity experiments prescribing the diabatic heating over the MC and diabatic cooling over the EP independently demonstrate that diabatic cooling over the EP is the main driver for producing regional atmospheric conditions favorable for U.S. tornadogenesis.

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau and its northern margins on the mid-latitude Westerly Jet over Central Asia in summer

The upper-troposphere Westerly Jet is currently maintained in the mid-latitudes of Central Asia during summer, the strength and movement of which are closely related to the variations in precipitation in arid Central Asia. However, little is known about how this Westerly Jet has changed during the Cenozoic, although it is known that the Tibetan Plateau has a crucial role in the modern Asian climate. We conducted a set of numerical experiments to examine the effects of the Tibetan Plateau and the topography of its northern margins (the Pamir Plateau, the Tian Shan mountains and the Mongolian Plateau) on the Westerly Jet in summer. The mid-latitude Westerly Jet is significantly intensified with the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. The center of the jet stream moves about 1° to the north. This strengthening and shift in the Westerly Jet are primarily due to the strong atmospheric heat source induced by the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. With the inclusion of the Pamir Plateau and Tian Shan mountains, the Westerly winds in the northern axis of the jet are strengthened while the southern part is weakened, resulting in a continuous northward shift in the Westerly Jet stream. Similar to the effects of the Tibetan Plateau, anomalous diabatic heating appears with the inclusion of the Pamir Plateau and Tian Shan mountains and the intensity of the Westerly Jet is slightly weakened. The Westerly Jet is also weakened, but stops moving northward, when the Mongolian Plateau is uplifted. This is a result of continuous northward warming. The mid-latitude Westerly Jet therefore experienced distinct changes during the Cenozoic in association with the development of the atmospheric heat source in summer as a result of the stepwise uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, Tian Shan mountains and Mongolian Plateau. This may have influenced the aridity of the Asian interior and the transport of eolian dust.

Subseasonal Zonal Oscillation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High during Early Summer

This study examines the features and dynamical processes of subseasonal zonal oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during early summer, by performing a multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis on daily winds and a diagnosis on potential vorticity (PV) at 500 hPa for the period 1979–2016. The first MV-EOF mode is characterized by an anticyclonic anomaly occupying southeastern China to subtropical western North Pacific regions. It has a period of 10–25 days and represents zonal shift of the WPSH. When the WPSH stretches more westward, the South Asian high (SAH) extends more eastward. Above-normal precipitation is observed over the Yangtze–Huaihe River (YHR) basin. Suppressed convection with anomalous descending motion is located over the subtropical western North Pacific. The relative zonal movement of the SAH and the WPSH helps to establish an anomalous local vertical circulation of ascending motion with upper-level divergence over the YHR basin and descending motion with upper-level convergence over the subtropical western Pacific. The above local vertical circulation provides a dynamic condition for persistent rainfall over the YHR basin. An enhanced southwest flow over the WPSH’s western edge transports more moisture to eastern China, providing a necessary water vapor condition for the persistent rainfall over the YHR basin. A potential vorticity diagnosis reveals that anomalous diaba-tic heating is a main source for PV generation. The anomalous cooling over the subtropical western Pacific produces a local negative PV center at 500 hPa. The anomalous heating over the YHR basin generates a local positive PV center. The above south–north dipolar structure of PV anomaly along with the climatological southerly flow leads to northward advection of negative PV. These two processes are conducive to the WPSH’s westward extension. The vertical advection process is unfavorable to the westward extension but contributes to the eastward retreat of the WPSH.

Revisiting the ENSO Teleconnection to the Tropical North Atlantic

One of the most robust remote impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the teleconnection to tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) in boreal spring. However, important questions still remain open. In particular, the timing of the ENSO–TNA relationship lacks understanding. The three previously proposed mechanisms rely on teleconnection dynamics involving a time lag of one season with respect to the ENSO mature phase in winter, but recent results have shown that the persistence of ENSO into spring is necessary for the development of the TNA SST anomalies. Likewise, the identification of the effective atmospheric forcing in the deep TNA to drive the regional air–sea interaction is also lacking. In this manuscript a new dynamical framework to understand the ENSO–TNA teleconnection is proposed, in which a continuous atmospheric forcing is present throughout the ENSO decaying phase. Observational datasets in the satellite era, which include reliable estimates over the ocean, are used to illustrate the mechanism at play. The dynamics rely on the remote Gill-type response to the ENSO zonally compensated heat source over the Amazon basin, associated with perturbations in the Walker circulation. For El Niño conditions, the anomalous diabatic heating in the tropical Pacific is compensated by anomalous diabatic cooling, in association with negative rainfall anomalies and descending motion over northern South America. A pair of anomalous cyclonic circulations is established at upper-tropospheric levels in the tropical Atlantic straddling the equator, displaying a characteristic baroclinic structure with height. In the TNA region, the mirrored anomalous anticyclonic circulation at lower-tropospheric levels weakens the northeasterly trade winds, leading to a reduction in evaporation and of the ocean mixed layer depth, hence to positive SST anomalies. Apart from the dominance of latent heat flux anomalies in the remote response, sensible heat flux and shortwave radiation anomalies also appear to contribute. The “lagged” relationship between mature ENSO in winter and peaking TNA SSTs in spring seems to be phase locked with the seasonal cycle in both the location of the mechanism’s centers of action and regional SST variance.

Mechanisms for concurrent low-latitude circulation anomalies responsible for persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley

Concurrent position shifts of the mid-level western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the upper-level South Asia high (SAH) are regarded as significant precursors for persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). By performing composite analyses, accountable vorticity genesis and dissipation are diagnosed based on a potential vorticity–diabatic heating theory. The results indicate that about 1 week preceding precipitation onset, a wave-like pattern of anomalous diabatic heating (Q) initiates its northwestward propagation from equatorial central Pacific. Subsequently, this wave-like pattern induces substantial changes in both horizontal and vertical structure of local Q along the propagating route. Forced negative vorticities in key areas result in the zonal approach between the SAH and the WPSH. During PEPEs, two thermal-induced vertical circulation cells take shape, with common strong ascent centered in the YRV. These anomalous cells are capable of self-maintaining for a few days via positive feedback processes. The WPSH and the SAH are therefore anchored in respective favorable positions for PEPEs. Simultaneously, descending motion of these two cells increases local solar radiation and decreases upward latent heat flux from surface, facilitating warmer underlying surface and swift accumulation of lower-level moisture. Correspondingly, enhanced heating to the north and rapid developing cyclone over warmer sea surface to the south combine to terminate above positive feedback processes. Finally, both the WPSH and the SAH retreat to their normal positions, accompanied by a quick decay of PEPEs.

Impact of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature tripole on the East Asian summer monsoon

A strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is usually concurrent with the tripole pattern of North Atlantic SST anomalies on the interannual timescale during summer, which has positive (negative) SST anomalies in the northwestern North Atlantic and negative (positive) SST anomalies in the subpolar and tropical ocean. The mechanisms responsible for this linkage are diagnosed in the present study. It is shown that a barotropic wave-train pattern occurring over the Atlantic-Eurasia region likely acts as a link between the EASM and the SST tripole during summer. This wave-train pattern is concurrent with geopotential height anomalies over the Ural Mountains, which has a substantial effect on the EASM. Diagnosis based on observations and linear dynamical model results reveals that the mechanism for maintaining the wave-train pattern involves both the anomalous diabatic heating and synoptic eddy-vorticity forcing. Since the North Atlantic SST tripole is closely coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the relationships between these two factors and the EASM are also examined. It is found that the connection of the EASM with the summer SST tripole is sensitive to the meridional location of the tripole, which is characterized by large seasonal variations due to the north-south movement of the activity centers of the NAO. The SST tripole that has a strong relationship with the EASM appears to be closely coupled with the NAO in the previous spring rather than in the simultaneous summer.

The Indian Monsoon Circulation Response to El Niño Diabatic Heating

The response of the boreal summer mean tropical circulation to anomalies in diabatic heating during the strong El Niño events of 1972, 1987, and 1997 is studied, with particular focus on the Indian region. In experiments with the atmospheric general circulation model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, anomalous diabatic heating fields are added to the full temperature tendency of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3). The boundary conditions are specified climatological sea surface temperatures everywhere but over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans, where a slab-ocean model is used. The vertical structure of the added heating is idealized with a single maximum at 600 hPa. The added heating in the experiments was chosen on the basis of the 1972, 1987, and 1997 diabatic heating anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans diagnosed from reanalyses. Integrations extended from May to August with 20 different initial conditions. The 1972 and 1987 experiments produced an anomalous anticyclonic circulation extending westward toward the Indian region, accompanied by negative total (added plus CAM3 produced) diabatic heating anomalies over India. A similar result was obtained for 1997 when only the Pacific Ocean diabatic heating was added. The heating over the central Pacific is shown to be more important than the western Pacific cooling. When the added heating also took into account anomalies over the Indian Ocean, the anomalous anticyclonic circulation weakens, while the total Indian heating anomaly is quite small. These results suggest the importance of the Indian Ocean heating for the 1997 monsoon circulation, but do not constitute a complete explanation since the Indian Ocean heating was given a priori.

Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010

A global perspective is developed on a number of high impact climate extremes in 2010 through diagnostic studies of the anomalies, diabatic heating, and global energy and water cycles that demonstrate relationships among variables and across events. Natural variability, especially ENSO, and global warming from human influences together resulted in very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in several places that played a vital role in subsequent developments. Record high SSTs in the Northern Indian Ocean in May 2010, the Gulf of Mexico in August 2010, the Caribbean in September 2010, and north of Australia in December 2010 provided a source of unusually abundant atmospheric moisture for nearby monsoon rains and flooding in Pakistan, Colombia, and Queensland. The resulting anomalous diabatic heating in the northern Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans altered the atmospheric circulation by forcing quasi‐stationary Rossby waves and altering monsoons. The anomalous monsoonal circulations had direct links to higher latitudes: from Southeast Asia to southern Russia, and from Colombia to Brazil. Strong convection in the tropical Atlantic in northern summer 2010 was associated with a Rossby wave train that extended into Europe creating anomalous cyclonic conditions over the Mediterranean area while normal anticyclonic conditions shifted downstream where they likely interacted with an anomalously strong monsoon circulation, helping to support the persistent atmospheric anticyclonic regime over Russia. This set the stage for the “blocking” anticyclone and associated Russian heat wave and wild fires. Attribution is limited by shortcomings in models in replicating monsoons, teleconnections and blocking.

A Model Investigation of Aerosol-Induced Changes in Boreal Winter Extratropical Circulation

AbstractThe authors examine the key characteristics of the boreal winter extratropical circulation changes in response to anthropogenic aerosols, simulated with a coupled atmosphere–slab ocean general circulation model. The zonal-mean response features a pronounced equatorward shift of the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet owing to the midlatitude aerosol cooling. The circulation changes also show strong zonal asymmetry. In particular, the cooling is more concentrated over the North Pacific than over the North Atlantic despite similar regional forcings. With the help of an idealized model, the authors demonstrate that the zonally asymmetrical response is linked tightly to the stationary Rossby waves excited by the anomalous diabatic heating over the tropical east Pacific. The altered wave pattern leads to a southeastward shift of the Aleutian low (and associated changes in winds and precipitation), while leaving the North Atlantic circulation relatively unchanged.Despite the rich circulation changes, the variations in the extratropical meridional latent heat transport are controlled strongly by the dependence of atmospheric moisture content on temperature. This suggests that one can project reliably the changes in extratropical zonal-mean precipitation solely from the global-mean temperature change, even without a good knowledge of the detailed circulation changes caused by aerosols. On the other hand, such knowledge is indispensable for understanding zonally asymmetrical (regional) precipitation changes.