Annular Mode Research Articles

Rapid decline in extratropical Andean snow cover driven by the poleward migration of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies.

Seasonal snow in the extratropical Andes is a primary water source for major rivers supplying water for drinking, agriculture, and hydroelectric power in Central Chile. Here, we used estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to analyze changes in snow cover extent over the period 2001-2022 in a total of 18 watersheds spanning approximately 1,100km across the Chilean Andes (27-36°S). We found that the annual snow cover extent is receding in the watersheds analyzed at an average pace of approximately 19% per decade. These alarming trends have impacted meltwater runoff, resulting in historically low river streamflows during the dry season. We examined streamflow records dating back to the early 1980s for 10 major rivers within our study area. Further comparisons with large-scale climate modes suggest that the detected decreasing trends in snow cover extent are likely driven by the poleward migration of the westerly winds associated with a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

Climate Extremes in the New Zealand Region: Mechanisms, Impacts and Attribution

ABSTRACTAs global surface temperatures have increased with human‐induced climate change, notable compound climate extremes in the New Zealand (NZ) region associated with atmospheric heatwaves (AHWs) and marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in the past 6 years. Natural modes of variability that also played a key role regionally include the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and changes in the location and strength of the westerlies as seen in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Along with mean warming of 0.8°C since 1900, a negative phase of the IPO, La Niña phase of ENSO and a strongly positive SAM contributed to five compound warm extremes in the extended austral summer seasons (NDJFM) of 1934/35, 2017/18, 2018/19, 2021/22 and 2022/23. These are the most intense coupled ocean/atmosphere (MHWs/AHWs) heatwaves on record with average temperature anomalies over land and sea +0.8°C to 1.1°C above 1991–2020 averages. The number of days above 25°C and above the 90th percentile of maximum temperature has increased, while the number of nights below 0°C and below the 10th percentile has decreased. Coastal waters around NZ recently experienced their longest MHW in the satellite era (1982‐present) of 289 days through 2023. The estimated recurrence interval reduces from 1 in 300‐years for the AHW event during the 1930s climate to a 1 in 25‐year event for the most recent decade. Consequences include major loss of ice of almost one‐third volume from Southern Alps glaciers from 2017 to 2021 with rapid melt of seasonal snow in all four cases. Above‐average temperatures in the December/January grape flowering period resulted in advances in veraison (the onset of ripening); and higher‐than‐average grape yields in 2022 and 2023 vintages. Marine impacts include widespread sea‐sponge bleaching around northern and southern NZ.

IMPROVING METHODS FOR PREDICTING THE STRUCTURE OF GAS-LIQUID FLOW IN HORIZONTAL PIPES

Analysis of existing research on the hydrodynamics of two-phase mixtures allows us to trace the main trends in the development of engineering calculation methods, as well as identify the most promising approaches for developing algorithms for predicting the patterns of gas-liquid flows in horizontal pipes. Predicting the patterns of two-phase flows is necessary to solve a number of applied problems related to the design of field pipeline systems, monitoring of operational parameters during the transportation of well products, calculation of hydraulic pressure drop in pipes, etc. Conventionally, in creating methods for predicting flow regimes in horizontal pipes, there are stages based on empirical approaches, mechanistic modeling and unification of hydrodynamic criteria for assessing the processes of patterns transformations of two-phase flows. Approaches based on the unification of hydrodynamic models of gas-liquid flows are noted as promising directions in the development of hydrodynamic forecasting criteria. The principles of unification consist in bringing to uniformity a mathematical apparatus capable of predicting all possible patterns of gas-liquid flow in vertical, inclined and horizontal pipes based on known volumetric flow rates of liquid and gas. The article proposes the improvement of known unification approaches in the development of criteria for predicting the annular and dispersed-bubble patterns of gas-liquid flow in field pipes. The verification of the obtained algorithms for pattern prediction of annular and dispersed-bubble modes of horizontal gas-liquid flow was carried out.

Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability triggered by Southern Annular Mode and deep convection

Antarctic sea ice exerts great influence on Earth’s climate by controlling the exchange of heat, momentum, freshwater, and gases between the atmosphere and ocean. Antarctic sea ice extent has undergone a multidecadal slight increase followed by a substantial decline since 2016. Here we utilize a 300-yr sea ice data assimilation reconstruction and two NOAA/GFDL and five CMIP6 model simulations to demonstrate a multidecadal variability of Antarctic sea ice extent. Stronger westerlies associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) enhance the upwelling of warm and saline water from the subsurface ocean. The consequent salinity increase weakens the upper-ocean stratification, induces deep convection, and in turn brings more subsurface warm and saline water to the surface. This salinity-convection feedback triggered by the SAM provides favorable conditions for multidecadal sea ice decrease. Processes acting in reverse are found to cause sea ice increase, although it evolves slower than sea ice decrease.

Observed Associations between Fire Danger and Climate Modes and Their Representation in ACCESS-S2

Abstract The increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in Australia, driven by climate change, pose a significant threat to ecosystems, lives, and property. This study examines the impact of climate drivers, specifically El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and two modes of persistent high pressure in the Australia–Pacific region, on extreme fire danger. By analyzing observed and simulated fire danger in relation to these climate drivers, we aim to enhance our understanding of climate–fire mechanisms and contribute to Australia’s bushfire preparedness. Our findings indicate that all assessed drivers influence extreme fire danger, with key influences related to the drivers’ established relationships with rainfall and temperature. El Niño, positive IOD, and negative SAM events generally increase extreme fire danger across most of Australia and in most seasons. The two modes of Australian blocking exhibit similar effects, varying spatially. Specific phases of the MJO have significant seasonal relationships with fire danger. In some instances, increased fire danger is not directly linked to temperature or precipitation changes but rather driven by remote teleconnections, airflow, or pressure anomalies. Evaluating the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting systems in representing these relationships is crucial for the effective prediction and mitigation of fire hazards. The leading Australian climate simulation model effectively reproduces observed relationships but reveals biases in capturing certain aspects of climate variability. Advancements in this field would enhance fire weather forecasts, including those by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology with lead times of up to 4 months. Significance Statement This assessment of climate–fire relationships and modeling accuracy is pivotal in understanding the factors behind severe fire events and improving future predictions and mitigation. Prior research has already established links between elevated fire weather conditions and these climate drivers, highlighting their potential for predicting severe fire events. This study aims to deepen our comprehension of the factors driving severe fire events and facilitate improved bushfire risk management in Australia.

Opposite Trends in the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere Between Mid‐Winter and Early Spring Linked to Surface Temperature Anomalies

AbstractTrends in the coupled stratosphere‐troposphere system during the 1979–2022 period are investigated in the Northern Hemisphere using reanalysis datasets. More upward planetary wave propagation in December is shown to precede the deceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in January. This deceleration prevents the waves from continuing to propagate upward in February and favors an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex in March. This is associated with an increased Northern Hemisphere annular mode in March in the stratosphere and the troposphere. Trends show a moderate significance level because of strong interannual variability. Recent seasons whose anomalies project onto the trends are those for which wave‐1 anomaly constructively interferes with wave‐1 climatology in December, which occurs when there is warming in an area extending from Eastern Canada to Greenland and slight cooling over Eurasia. It shows the potential for predicting the springtime stratospheric polar vortex from wintertime wave‐1 anomalies.

Trend and teleconnection analysis of temperature extremes in New South Wales, Australia

AbstractThis study investigates possible trends and teleconnections in temperature extremes in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data covering the period 1971–2021 at 26 stations located in NSW were used. Three indices, which focus on daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and average daily temperature in terms of Excessive Heat Factor (EHF) were investigated to identify the occurrence of heatwaves (HWs). The study considered HWs of different durations (1-, 5-, and 10-days) in relation to intensity, frequency, duration, and their first occurrence parameters. Finally, the influences of three global climate drivers, namely – the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated with associated heatwave attributes for extended Austral summers. In this study, an increasing trend in both hot days and nights was observed for most of the selected stations within the study area. The increase was more pronounced for the last decade (2011–2021) of the investigated time period. The number, duration and frequency of the heatwaves increased over time considering the EHF criterion, whereas no particular trend was detected in cases of TX90 and TN90. It was also evident that the first occurrence of all the HWs shifted towards the onset of the extended summer while considering the EHF criterion of HWs. The correlations between heatwave attributes and climate drivers depicted that heatwave over NSW was positively influenced by both the IOD and ENSO and negatively correlated with SAM. The findings of this study will be useful in formulating strategies for managing the impacts of extreme temperature events such as bushfires, floods, droughts to the most at-risk regions within NSW.

Predictability of the 2020 Strong Vortex in the Antarctic Stratosphere and the Role of Ozone

AbstractThe Antarctic vortex of October–December 2020 was the strongest on record in the satellite era for the season in the mid‐ to lower stratosphere. However, it was poorly predicted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational seasonal climate forecast system of that time, ACCESS‐S1, even at a short lead time of a month. Using the current operational forecast system, ACCESS‐S2, we have, therefore, tried to find a primary cause of the limited predictability of this event and conducted forecast sensitivity experiments to understand the potential role of ozone in the event and its associated anomalies of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and rainfall over south–eastern Australia and western Patagonia. Here, we show that the 2020 strong vortex event did not follow the canonical dynamical evolution seen in previous strong vortex events in spring but suddenly appeared as a result of the record‐low upward propagating wave activity in September 2020. The ACCESS‐S2 forecasts significantly underestimated the negative wave forcing in September even at zero lead time, irrespective of the ozone configuration, therefore falling short in predicting the record strength of the polar vortex in late spring 2020. Nevertheless, ACCESS‐S2 with prescribed realistic ozone that had large anomalies in the Antarctic stratosphere significantly better predicted the strong vortex and the subsequent positive SAM and related rainfall anomalies over south–eastern Australia and western Patagonia in the austral summer of 2020–21. This highlights the potentially important role of ozone variations for seasonal climate forecasting as a source of long‐lead predictability.

Unravelling the Influence of ENSO and SAM Patterns on Skate Growth: The Case of the Shorttail Yellownose Skate in Patagonia, Argentina

ABSTRACTIn recent decades, the growth, physiology and distribution of many elasmobranch species have been altered as a result of environmental changes that affect prey abundance, availability and composition. Consequently, variations in nutrient input during climate events could manifest in the growth of their hard tissues. This study focuses on assessing the impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the growth of Shorttail Yellownose skate (Zearaja brevicaudata) in Patagonia, Argentina. To achieve this, vertebrae from 115 Z. brevicaudata specimens were analysed, and growth rings were dated and measured. By using cubic splines with varying flexibility, we constructed three standard chronologies. Generalized additive models (GAMs), the chronology with the best the R‐bar () and expressed population signal (EPS) were employed and values obtained from them linked to annual time series data of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and SAM, considering lags in the biological response. Surprisingly, no significant association was found with the MEI time series. However, a noteworthy positive association emerged between the chronology and the SAM time series lagged by 1 year, suggesting that SAM‐related climatic conditions could delay their transfer into the Patagonian marine ecosystem, subsequently impacting the growth of this ectothermic predator.

Contrasting influence of the 1997 and 2015 El Niño on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Role of the Southern Hemisphere

This study provides comprehensive analysis on the contrasting effects caused by the 1997 and 2015 historical El Niño events linked with the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The presence of strong southeast-northwest oriented cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies during 1997, that spatially extended from southwest Pacific to Southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) in comparison to the 2015 event is the robust feature. Evidently, these anomalies are closely related to interaction between cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over South Pacific Convergence Zone (south Australia). During 2015, the conjunction of Modoki II and classical El Niño triggered an asymmetrical equatorial circulation throughout the Indo-western Pacific (IWP) and thereby stimulated the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) through troposphere and stratospheric pathway mechanism. In addition, in 2015, SAM impacted the Indian Ocean, which intern affected ISM rainfall. Positive SAM associated with westward shift of anticyclone over south of Australia alters the circulation by inducing westerly winds over the South Indian Ocean, thereby suppressing Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and inducing drought conditions over India during 2015. Moreover, the AUS index, an indicator for IOD strength in boreal summer, is a bridging factor prevalent over mid-latitude regions in the southern hemisphere. Results from this study indicate the complex interaction of southern hemisphere atmospheric flow and its role in modulating the Indian Ocean region thereby ISM rainfall. A better understanding of these underlying mechanism can significantly enhance the predictive skills and projections of monsoon variability and extremes.

Tropospheric amplification of stratosphere–troposphere coupling

AbstractDuring northern winter the stratospheric polar vortex is highly variable — even breaking down completely during sudden stratospheric warmings. The strength of the stratospheric polar vortex is observed to be coupled to surface weather, primarily through swings in the phase of the Northern Annular Mode — which is nearly uuivalent to polar‐cap sea‐level pressure. Pressure changes (as a function of height) are largest at the surface, which is difficult to reconcile with the remote effects of stratospheric variability. This conundrum requires some mechanism(s) to amplify the polar sea‐level pressure anomalies. A simple, intuitive explanation has remained elusive. We use Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) reanalyses to investigate the reason that stratospheric variability causes large polar sea‐level pressure changes. The main result of this paper is that vertical movement of the polar tropopause is essential in understanding how surface pressure changes are generated. The strength of the polar vortex is strongly coupled to the height of the polar tropopause, resulting in stretching/compression of the polar tropospheric air column. This causes pressure changes that are largest at the surface. For example, the lowering of the polar tropopause during a sudden stratospheric warming leads to a compression and spin down of the tropospheric column and is therefore associated with higher polar sea‐level pressure. This mechanism can be compared to the textbook example of conservation of potential vorticity as an air column moves over a mountain range — except in this case the column depth changes because the stratosphere is changing the height of the tropopause. The observed vertical profile of pressure changes matches closely what would be expected from the stretching/compression mechanism. The higher polar sea‐level pressure associated with a sudden stratospheric warming is due mainly to mass moving into the polar cap within the troposphere, rather than rearranged mass in the stratosphere.

Global assessment of interannual variability in coastal urban areas and ecosystems

Abstract Both seasonal and extreme climate conditions are influenced by long-term natural internal variability. However, in general, long-term hazard variation has not been incorporated into coastal risk assessments. There are coastal regions of high interest, such as urban areas, where a large number of people are exposed to hydrometeorological hazards, and ecosystems, which provide protection, where long-term natural variability should be considered a design factor. In this study, we systematized climate analysis to identify high-interest regions where hazard long-term variability should be considered in risk assessment, disaster reduction, and future climate change adaptation and protection designs. To achieve this goal, we examined the effect of the leading modes of climate variability (Arctic Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation) on the variation in the recurrence of extreme coastal hazard events, including as a first step sea surface temperature, winds, and waves. Neglecting long-term variability could potentially lead to the underperformance of solutions, or even irreversible damage that compromises the conditions of ecosystems for which nature-based solutions are designed.

Filling in Munk’s ‘orbital gap’ in climate and sea-level variability

Abstract This study explores the linkage between lunar precessions, solar activity, plus their interactions, and the interannual variability of climate indices and Australian sea level. The focus is on variability longer than the lunar nodal cycle (18.6 years), but shorter than millennia, also known as orbital gap. Climate indices include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation Index, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Southern Annular Mode. Long-term (> 100 years) sea-level data were examined at Fremantle (Western Australia) and Fort Denison (Sydney, Eastern Australia). Periodicities associated with gravitational and radiational forces were fitted to 3-yr- and 5-yr-filtered records of each climate index and of sea-level records. All fits, 10 for climate indices and 12 for sea level, explained the variance of all filtered records remarkably well (>60%). Findings suggest that lunar precessions and their interactions with solar activity may be connected to interannual variations in oceanic mixing. Mixing leads to climate variability through transport of heat, mass and solutes in the atmosphere and ocean, and ultimately relates to interannual sea-level variability. This study represents the possibility of astronomic effects on Earth’s environmental variables, beyond the internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system.

Supraglacial lake evolution and its drivers in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Abstract Supraglacial lakes on Antarctic ice shelves can have far-reaching implications for ice-sheet stability, highlighting the need to understand their dynamics, controls and role in the ice-sheet mass budget. We combine a detailed satellite-based record of seasonal lake evolution in Dronning Maud Land with a high-resolution simulation from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional to identify drivers of lake variability between 2014 and 2021. Correlations between summer lake extents and climate parameters reveal complex relationships that vary both in space and time. Shortwave radiation contributes positively to the energy budget during summer melt seasons, but summers with enhanced longwave radiation are more prone to surface melting and ponding, which is further enhanced by advected heat from summer precipitation. In contrast, previous winter precipitation has a negative effect on summer lake extents, presumably by increasing albedo and pore space, delaying the accumulation of meltwater. Downslope katabatic or föhn winds promote ponding around the grounding zones of some ice shelves. At a larger scale, we find that summers during periods of negative southern annular mode are associated with increased ponding in Dronning Maud Land. The high variability in seasonal lake extents indicates that these ice shelves are highly sensitive to future warming or intensified extreme events.

Exploring sea-ice transport dynamics at the eastern gate of the Ross Sea

As Antarctic sea-ice extent continues to reach record lows, significant efforts have been directed towards understanding the underlying processes and their regional differences within the Southern Ocean. Here, we explore the dynamics of zonal sea-ice transport at the eastern gate of the Ross Sea from 1988 to 2023 using GIOMAS-model and ERA5-reanalysis data. Our analysis reveals a modest overall increase in eastward sea-ice transport (3.721 ± 0.672 km³/month per decade), with diverging trends in the coastal and open ocean zones. Driven by easterly winds and the Antarctic Slope Current, the predominant westward transport in the coastal region experienced a significant rise during the early 2000s, followed by a steep decline post-2011. Conversely, driven by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the strong open-ocean transport exhibited a moderate increase towards the Amundsen Sea until the late 1990s, which was interrupted by a reversal in 2007. The variability of the zonal sea-ice transport and its underlying conditions (sea-ice concentration, thickness, and zonal drift) revealed considerable shifts throughout the different decades and on seasonal scales. During austral winter, approximately half of the zonal sea-ice transport variability seems to be driven by large-scale teleconnections, including the Southern Annular Mode, Southern Oscillation Index, Amundsen Sea Low and the Zonal Wave 3 with considerable impacts on the wind stress field. Whereas during summer, the Southern Oscillation Index emerges as the dominant driver, exhibiting a significant positive correlation (r=0.55, p<0.001) that reflects ENSO’s influence, while other teleconnections play minimal roles. Our study highlights the complex nature of sea-ice transport through the eastern gate of the Ross Sea towards the Amundsen Seas, where contrasting climatic conditions are known to occur.

Late Holocene record of subantarctic glacier variability in Table Fjord, Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands

The subantarctic islands between 40 and 60°S are circum-polar landmasses influenced by the southern westerly wind (SWW) belt whose latitudinal shifts are driven by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) over decadal timescales. In the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, the Kerguelen Islands (49°S) form a volcanic archipelago that is home to the Cook Ice Cap (CIC). Atmospheric drying favored by a poleward migration of the SWW induced a dramatic shrinkage of the CIC over the past 50 years. Current knowledge of how this decline compares with the natural variability of the CIC is unclear and based exclusively on geomorphological records with limited temporal resolution. This paper introduces a 4 kyr marine record built from a transect of giant piston cores collected in Table Fjord, southwestern margin of the CIC. Interpretation of sedimentary and geochemical proxies is supported by statistical correlations with the CIC surface mass balance on the instrumental timescale, and by the age overlapping with dated landforms and deposits over the last two millennia. High-resolution geochronological data (137Cs and 210Pb inventories along with 63 AMS 14C dates) corrected from a local marine reservoir age allowed reconstructing glacier variability at a multidecadal resolution. The CIC was paced by periods of glacial advances at 3.4–2.8, 2.3–1.7, and 1.35–1.15 ka cal BP, followed by a two-stage ‘Little Ice Age’ maximum between 0.7 ka cal BP and the early 20th century. Comparison with paleoenvironmental records from the subantarctic fringe zone and the southern mid-latitudes suggests SWW-driven precipitation (wetter and windier conditions) were the main driver of centennial-scale glacier variability in the Kerguelen Islands, notably after 2.3 ka cal BP. The Kerguelen record thereby supports a zonally-synchronous, hemispheric-wide SWW pattern pacing Southern Ocean climatic variability in a SAM-like mode. The Little Ice Age maximum ice extent results from the coincidence of cold conditions caused by an equatorward shift of the Polar Front, an oceanic front bordering the Kerguelen archipelago resulting in lower sea surface temperatures, together with wetter conditions favored by strengthened SWW.

Spatial and temporal variability of the freezing level in Patagonia's atmosphere

Abstract. The height of the 0 °C isotherm (H0), which commonly signals the freezing level, denotes the lowest altitude within the atmosphere where the air temperature reaches 0 °C. This can be used as an indicator of the transition between rain and snow, making it useful for monitoring and visualizing the height of freezing temperatures in the atmosphere. We study the spatial and temporal variability of H0 across Patagonia (41–54° S) for the 1959–2021 period using reanalysis data from ERA5. Our results indicate that the average isotherm in Patagonia is 1691 m above sea level (m a.s.l.). The spatial distribution of the annual mean field highlights the contrast in the region, with an average maximum of 2658 m a.s.l. in the north and minimum of 913 m a.s.l. in the south. Regarding seasonal variability in the region, H0 ranges from 575 m a.s.l. (winter) to 3346 m a.s.l. (summer). Further, the significant trends calculated over the period show positive values in the whole area. This indicates an upward annual trend in the H0, between 8.8 and 36.5 m per decade from 1959–2021, with the higher value observed in northwestern Patagonia. These upward trends are stronger during summer (8–61 m per decade). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was performed on H0 anomalies. The first EOF mode of H0 variability accounts for 84 % of the total variance, depicting a monopole structure centred in the northwestern area. This mode exhibits a strong and significant correlation with the spatial average H0 anomaly field (r=0.85), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM; r= 0.58), temperature at 850 hPa in the Drake Passage (r=0.56), and sea surface temperature off the western coast of Patagonia (r=0.66), underscoring the significant role of these factors in influencing the vertical temperature profile within the region. The spatial distribution of the second (8 %) and third (4.4 %) EOF modes depicts a dipole pattern, offering additional insights into the processes influencing the 0 °C isotherm, especially on the western slope of Patagonia.

Near‐surface wind variability in Prydz Bay and Amery Ice Shelf region, East Antarctica: A four‐decade SOM analysis

AbstractNear‐surface wind fields in the Prydz Bay and Amery Ice Shelf region of East Antarctica play a crucial role in the formation and variability of Antarctic Bottom Water, a cold, dense water mass that sinks and spreads across the deep ocean basins influencing ocean circulation and modulating earth's climate system. This study investigates the primary modes of variability of these wind fields using the self‐organizing map (SOM) method and data from the latest version of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ReAnalyses (ERA5), spanning four decades from 1979 to 2020. While the wind field climatology, characterized by small seasonal variation, is dominated by katabatic and large‐scale forcing, the spatial patterns of the primary variability modes are mainly influenced by synoptic system activities. The overall trend in annual wind speed anomalies is positive across the study region, with the exception of the southwestern part and central Prydz Bay. However, significant trends are observed in only two out of nine SOM nodes (nodes 4 and 9), which collectively explain less than 30% of the averaged trends over the region. The interannual variability in the seasonal occurrences of certain nodes is linked to several well‐known climate modes, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode and Zonal Wavenumber 3. Our results provide a reference for forecasting the occurrence frequency of specific patterns, which could help mitigate the impact of extreme wind events through improved forecasting.

Evidence for large-scale climate forcing of dense shelf water variability in the Ross Sea

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), which supplies the lower limb of the thermohaline circulation, originates from dense shelf water (DSW) forming in Antarctic polynyas. Here, combining a long mooring record of DSW measurements with numerical simulations and satellite data, we show that significant correlation exists between interannual variability of DSW production in the Ross Sea polynyas, where DSW contributes between 20–40% of the global AABW production, and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The correlation is largest when the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is weakened and shifted east of the Ross Sea. During positive SAM phases, enhanced offshore winds and lower air temperatures over the western Ross Sea increase sea ice production and promote DSW formation, with the opposite response during negative SAM phases. These processes ultimately modulate AABW thickness in the open ocean. A projected positive shift of the SAM and eastward displacement of the ASL thus has implications for the future of DSW and AABW formation.

The cooperative effects of November Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover on the Eurasian surface air temperature in January–February

AbstractDue to their significant influence on large‐scale atmospheric circulation and climate anomalies, the variability of Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover during late autumn and their combined effects have garnered increasing attention. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism underlying the covariation among the Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC), Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) and the ensuing winter Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT). The statistics results of singular value decomposition suggest a significant linkage between the decreased BKS SIC, zonal “negative–positive” dipole SCE anomalies over Eurasia in November and cold Eurasian SAT in January–February (JF). Observational diagnosis analyses about the meridional moisture, heat transport and surface heat flux demonstrate that subpolar Eurasian anticyclonic circulation plays a crucial role in connecting the predominant modes of SIC and SCE. Furthermore, the BKS SIC and Eurasian SCE anomalies can jointly excite upward‐propagating planetary waves into the stratosphere, while simultaneously reducing the subpolar meridional temperature gradient. This results in westerly wind deceleration and favours the continuous planetary wave propagation. Consequently, the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly weakened, along with negative Northern Annular Mode anomalies propagating downward from the stratosphere to troposphere. Negative‐phase Arctic Oscillation anomalies correspondingly develop during JF, resulting in widespread cold anomalies over the Eurasian continent. These results are further confirmed by numerical sensitivity experiments from the Community Atmosphere Model forced by the above mentioned SIC and SCE anomalies. The empirical hindcast model analyses further suggest that the prediction skill of JF Eurasian SAT is enhanced when both the November BKS SIC and Eurasian SCE signals are considered.