Changes In Annual Temperature Research Articles

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Changes on the Development of Sprat (Sprattus sprattus phalericus) (Pisces: Clupeidae) Living on the South-Western Shelf of Crimea

A study of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) on the South-Western shelf of the Crimea in 2000–2020 was conducted. The equations of trends in the change of SST are found. It is shown that according to the nature of changes in the average annual sea temperature, three periods can be divided: 2000–2007, 2008–2013 and 2014–2020. The influence of changes in the average annual SST on the development of pelagic fish of the cold-waters complex (on the example of the Black Sea sprat) is considered. Changes in the main parameters of populations and their relationship with the change in the average annual SST were found. It was found that the observed increase in sea temperature negatively affected the development of the sprat population, the average age of the population decreased by 1.3 times, in general, the population was rejuvenated, the average size and weight of individuals decreased.

Influence of climate change on flowering phenology of Yoshino cherry at its southern distribution limit.

To clarify the influence of climate change on the flowering phenology of Yoshino cherry at its southern distribution limit, we examined the relationship between cold exposure for endodormancy release (chilling requirement) and heat requirement for bud growth on Hachijojima Island, Japan, from 1948 to 2024. Cold exposure and heat requirement had a significant relationship approximated by linear or log-linear functions. In years with less cold exposure, the first flowering dates were much later than normal, in accordance with the higher heat requirement. Our results indicate that the variation in the balance between cold exposure and heat requirement depending on the pattern of annual air temperature change is likely to vary the first flowering date greatly at the distribution limit of Yoshino cherry.

Changes in Climatological Variables at Stations around Lake Erie and Lake Michigan

Climatological variables undergo changes over time, and it is important to understand such dynamic changes at global, regional, and local levels. While global and regional studies are common in the study of climate, such studies at a local level are not as common. The aim of this article is to study temporal changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature variables at specific stations located on the rims of Lake Erie and Lake Michigan. The identification of changes is carried out by applying change-point analysis to precipitation, snowfall, and temperature data from Buffalo, Erie, and Cleveland stations located on the rim of Lake Erie and at Chicago, Milwaukee, and Green Bay stations located on the rim of Lake Michigan. We adopt mainly the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) method to identify the number and locations of change points, and then we apply the generalized likelihood ratio statistic to test for the statistical significance of the identified change points. We follow this up by finding 95% confidence intervals for those change points that were found to be statistically significant. The results from the analysis show that there are significant changes in precipitation, snowfall, and temperature variables at all six rim stations. Changes in precipitation show consistently significant increases, whereas there is no similar consistency in snowfall increases. Temperature increases are generally quite sharp, and they occur consistently around 1985. Overall, upon combining the amounts of changes from all six stations, the average amount of change in annual average temperature is found to be 0.96 °C, the average percentage of change in precipitation is 16%, and the average percentage of change in snowfall is 17%. The changing local climatic conditions identified in the study are important for local city planners, as well as residents, so that they can be well prepared for changing climatic scenarios.

Surface Warming Constraint Projects Less Permafrost Thawing in High Mountain Asia

AbstractReliable projections of permafrost change are crucial for estimating permafrost carbon loss. However, potential model biases in surface air temperature may yield unrealistic projections of future permafrost area. Here, by leveraging the emergent relationship between equilibrium climate sensitivity and projected changes in mean annual air temperature over High Mountain Asia (HMA), we mitigate the overestimated local warming rates and excessive thawing of permafrost associated with the “hot model” problem in models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. After constraint, permafrost area over HMA will reduce by 37%, 64% and 99% in 2081–2100 relative to present‐day under the SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. In contrast, the unconstrained projections tend to overestimate the loss of permafrost area by nearly 10% under the low and mid‐emission scenarios due to the overestimation of local warming rates. These findings are crucial for policymaking and provide valuable insights into global permafrost projection.

The Streamflow Response to Multi‐Day Warm Anomaly Events: Sensitivity to Future Warming and Spatiotemporal Variability by Event Magnitude

AbstractPersistent warm temperature anomalies can drive streamflow in regions where snow and glacier melt are important constituents of streamflow. However, the spatiotemporal variability of the streamflow response depends on both the magnitude of the forcing temperature anomalies and the nature of the underlying hydrological system. Here we ask: when, where, and for what magnitude of temperature anomalies will the streamflow response change most rapidly under warming? We use observed streamflow and temperature for 868 basins across Canada to quantify the streamflow response during warm temperature anomalies and how such responses vary in space, time, and by anomaly magnitude. We first identify two temporal modes of the streamflow response, one in autumn and one in spring, the relative strength of which varies by climate. We then use sinusoidal approximations of seasonal temperature cycles to characterize the sensitivity of such modes to changes in annual temperature. At individual basins, we find that relative to moderate warm events, the streamflow response to more extreme warm events is more sensitive to changes in mean annual temperatures, and this sensitivity is greatest in the coastal, southern, and central regions of Canada. Our results have implications for how the hydrological impacts of extreme events, such as heatwaves, will change in space and time under future climate change.

Identifying temperature refuges in Utah using temperature, biota, and habitat data

AbstractUnderstanding where on landscapes to make investments, such as designating protected areas, is a critical component of biodiversity management. Locations for management actions should achieve current management objectives while also having the best chance of continued success in the future. Climate change has the potential to undermine biodiversity management, as it may lead to substantial changes in environmental conditions that are outside local managers' control. Following changes in environmental conditions, areas on the landscape may become unsuitable for the species or habitats that the initial actions were intended to benefit. The potential for local actions to be undermined by global‐scale threats makes it essential to account for and minimize exposure to temperature change. We present a series of analyses identifying priority areas for wildlife and habitat management. We conducted our analyses using a systematic landscape planning approach that identifies areas within species' ranges or current distributions of key habitats that are predicted to be less affected by future temperature change. We used the ranges of 142 animal and 149 plant species identified as species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) together with the distributions of 14 terrestrial and 19 aquatic key habitats in Utah, USA. We measured temperature change in 2 ways: as changes in mean annual temperature between 2020 and the year 2100 (temperature difference) and by quantifying how far a species range or habitat would have to shift to maintain its current temperature envelope (climate velocity). We identified the sub‐watersheds with hydrologic unit code 12 (HUC 12) that collectively encompassed the ranges of our SGCNs and key habitats while minimizing overall exposure to temperature change. These high priority HUC 12s represented areas that were not only hotspots for SGCNs and key habitats but also acted as temperature refugia, where management actions are likely to be robust to temperature change. We hope that our identification of high‐priority HUC 12s will help inform and guide future management actions to improve their long‐term outcomes.

Impact of newer climate data for technical analysis of residential building energy use in the United States

In this study, we describe an analysis indicating the relative importance of newer hourly weather files for simulation analysis of the energy use of residential buildings in North America.Results show that older TMY3 (ending 2005) data compared with newer TMY2021 (2007–2021) data are less appropriate for the best prediction of low-energy buildings. The balance of heating and cooling is significantly altered in the more recent TMY files with potential impacts on best performing energy efficiency measures. With 64 high profile North American locations evaluated, we found heating to be approximately 11% lower with the newer data, while cooling was increased by a similar amount percentage wise. However, the dominance of space heating in North America made decreases to heating considerably larger in an absolute sense so that overall space conditioning energy fell.Small changes in annual temperature can have large impacts. For all electric homes with air source heat pumps, we found that a change of 1 °C to outdoor temperature can produce about a 19 % change in space conditioning energy. The newer data also shows increased average solar electric output from simulated rooftop photovoltaic systems, likely due to more sophisticated solar irradiance data. Water heating was about 3 % lower given rising groundwater temperatures and inlet water temperatures to water heating systems. Results also showed that the newer data tended to increase savings from comprehensive building efficiency efforts in all electric buildings. This largely takes place because higher temperatures in winter allow air source heat pumps to meet heating needs more efficiently. Generally, the direction of these influences ease pathways to reach zero energy buildings in North America.

Spatially Heterogeneous Responses of Planktonic Foraminiferal Assemblages Over 700,000 Years of Climate Change

ABSTRACTAimTo determine the degree to which assemblages of planktonic foraminifera track thermal conditions.LocationThe world's oceans.Time PeriodThe last 700,000 years of glacial–interglacial cycles.Major Taxa StudiedPlanktonic foraminifera.MethodsWe investigate assemblage dynamics in planktonic foraminifera in response to temperature changes using a global dataset of Quaternary planktonic foraminifera, together with a coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) at 8000‐year resolution. We use ‘thermal deviance’ to assess assemblage responses to climate change, defined as the difference between the temperature at a given location and the bio‐indicated temperature (i.e., the abundance‐weighted average of estimated temperature optima for the species present).ResultsAssemblages generally tracked annual mean temperature changes through compositional turnover, but thermal deviances are evident under certain conditions. The coldest‐adapted species persisted in polar regions during warming but were not joined by additional immigrants, resulting in minimal assemblage turnover. The warmest‐adapted species persisted in equatorial regions during cooling with similarly minimal assemblage change. Assemblages at mid‐latitudes mostly tracked temperature cooling and warming.Main ConclusionsPlanktonic foraminiferal assemblages were generally able to track or endure temperature changes: as climate warmed or cooled, bio‐indicated temperature also became warmer or cooler, although to a variable degree. At polar sites under warming and at equatorial sites under cooling, the change in bio‐indicated temperature was less than, or even opposite to, what would be expected from estimated environmental change. Nevertheless, all studied species persisted across the study interval, regardless of thermal deviance—a result that highlights the resilience and inertia of planktonic foraminifera on an assemblage level to the last 700,000 years of climate change.

Constraining future surface air temperature change on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract The rapid warming of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades has led to severe consequences, including the melting of glaciers and snow cover, which further accelerates warming. Accurately projecting the magnitude of future warming is crucial for effective climate change adaptation. However, the projection of future temperature change is model dependent. In this study, we demonstrate a significant correlation between the historical intermodel warming trend and future temperature change, suggesting this relationship could be used to calibrate the best estimate of projections and reduce the uncertainty by observations. For a high emission scenario, the constraint helps to narrow down the uncertainty range of annual and summer temperature change on the western TP by up to 2 °C and 4 °C, respectively, in the end of this century. The most substantial calibrated increase of future change is in winter up to 2 °C, followed by autumn with an increase of up to about 1 °C. Discrepancies of historical warming trend among different observation datasets expose the largest impact on the constrained best estimate compared with emergent relationship derived from different climate models and historical periods.

Utilizing Time Series and Regression Analysis for Predicting Annual Surface Temperature Changes in the Philippines: An Empirical Approach

Utilizing Time Series and Regression Analysis for Predicting Annual Surface Temperature Changes in the Philippines: An Empirical Approach

Local summer temperature changes over the past 440 ka revealed by the total air content in the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core

Abstract. Seasonal temperature reconstructions from ice cores are missing over glacial–interglacial timescales, preventing a good understanding of the driving factors of Antarctic past climate changes. Here the total air content (TAC) record from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core is analyzed over the last 440 ka (thousand years). While the water isotopic record, a tracer for annual mean surface temperature, exhibits a dominant ∼100 kyr cyclicity, the TAC record is associated with a dominant ∼40 kyr cyclicity. Our results show that the TAC record is anti-correlated with the mean insolation over the local astronomical summer half-year. They also show for the first time that it is highly anti-correlated with local summer temperature simulated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We propose that (1) the local summer insolation controls the local summer temperature; (2) the latter, through the development of temperature gradients at the near-surface of the ice sheet (<2 m), is affecting the surface snow structure; and (3) those snow structure changes propagating down to the bottom of the firn through densification are eventually controlling the pore volume at the bubble close-off and consequently the TAC. Hence, our results suggest that the EDC TAC record could be used as a proxy for local summer temperature changes. Also, our new simulations show that the mean insolation over the local astronomical summer half-year is the primary driver of Antarctic summer surface temperature variations, while changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheet configurations play a more important role in Antarctic annual surface temperature changes.

English

The present study is to understand how climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature vary over time and how those changes affect stream flow in the Jhelum River basin in Pakistan under different emission scenarios A2 and B2. The simulation results of HadCM3 were employed to create potential climate change scenarios with the Statistically Downscale Model (SDSM). The calibrated model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to forecast imminent stream flow to develop a proposed future climate change scenario. Results indicated that cooling patterns were identified in the north portion of the study area whereas warming patterns were detected in the south portion. The projected mean annual maximum temperature (Tmax) of 2020’s 2050’s and 2080’s would be 0.3 oC, 0.8 oC, and 0.99 oC, respectively, under the A2 scenario. The changes in mean annual minimum temperature (Tmin) were also observed as it would be 0.4 oC, 0.7 oC, and 1.4 oC during 2020’s (2021-2040), 2050’s (2041-2070) and 2080’s (2071-2100), respectively. Similarly, it was observed that average annual rainfall would rise by 14%, 10%, and 20% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, in the Mangla basin. The results showed an increase in annual stream flows of 100% (1545 m3/sec), with increases in the winter and autumn seasons of up to 409% and 211%, respectively, and a drop in the spring and summer seasons of up to 29% and 25%, respectively, in the 2080’s compared to baseline. Water managers should consider the current trends and variability brought on by climate change to improve water management where water is scarce.

Numerical analysis of stress distribution in the pressurized composite pipe buried in the soil

In the present research work, a comprehensive study on the stress analysis in the two composite pipes bonded by a layer of DP 410 adhesive and a socket buried in the soil has been performed. The pipe material was considered as a four layers of epoxy-fiber glass with different fiber orientations (cross-ply, angle-ply and quasi-isotropic). The soil dimensions and properties as well as the traffic load (H-20) were based on AASHTO. The simulation of the stress analysis was performed using ANSYS software. In the present study, the influences of bed distance, temperature change, internal pressure, traffic load, fiber orientation angle and layups, and gap distance on stress distribution in the buried composite pipe have been investigated. The findings revealed that the annual temperature change in the soil and the pipe enhances the stresses in the joint components to a maximum value of 5.5 MPa at a pipe temperature of −22 °C. Moreover, the outcomes indicated that the adhesive layer is the most sensitive component to any rise in the load prism, as well as other loads, for a buried pipe at a depth of 120 cm. The maximum and minimum state for von Mises stress component were related to, in turn, quasi-isotropic and angle-ply laminations.

Climate change in the Biebrza Basin—Projections and ecohydrological implications

Over the last decades observed climate change in Poland had a significant impact on the condition and functioning of the environment. Thus, it is crucial to analyze further future changes to be able to cope with the potential effects of changing climate conditions. In this study, we aimed to assess the impact of projected climate change on meteorological and hydrological conditions in the Biebrza Basin. We analyzed seasonal and annual changes in air temperature, precipitation, streamflow and flood characteristics using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We examined projected changes for two future time horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using an ensemble of nine EUROCORDEX model scenarios. Climate change projections indicated an increase in precipitation by up to +17 % (+117 mm) and air temperature by up to 3.8 °C by the end of the 21st century. In the analyzed flow gauges a considerable increase in low and mean flows is projected in the future. High flows are projected to slightly decrease for Sztabin, remain at a similar level for Dębowo and slightly increase for Osowiec and Burzyn. Flood area and volume will slightly increase in future horizons. The greatest increase in flood duration (by up to 16 days) is projected for RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. It seems, that the expected hydrological conditions, both in the short and long term, will become more stable and improve the conditions for the development of wetlands.

Seasonal tissue-specific gene expression in wild crown-of-thorns starfish reveals reproductive and stress-related transcriptional systems.

Animals are influenced by the season, yet we know little about the changes that occur in most species throughout the year. This is particularly true in tropical marine animals that experience relatively small annual temperature and daylight changes. Like many coral reef inhabitants, the crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), well known as a notorious consumer of corals and destroyer of coral reefs, reproduces exclusively in the summer. By comparing gene expression in 7 somatic tissues procured from wild COTS sampled on the Great Barrier Reef, we identified more than 2,000 protein-coding genes that change significantly between summer and winter. COTS genes that appear to mediate conspecific communication, including both signalling factors released into the surrounding sea water and cell surface receptors, are up-regulated in external secretory and sensory tissues in the summer, often in a sex-specific manner. Sexually dimorphic gene expression appears to be underpinned by sex- and season-specific transcription factors (TFs) and gene regulatory programs. There are over 100 TFs that are seasonally expressed, 87% of which are significantly up-regulated in the summer. Six nuclear receptors are up-regulated in all tissues in the summer, suggesting that systemic seasonal changes are hormonally controlled, as in vertebrates. Unexpectedly, there is a suite of stress-related chaperone proteins and TFs, including HIFa, ATF3, C/EBP, CREB, and NF-κB, that are uniquely and widely co-expressed in gravid females. The up-regulation of these stress proteins in the summer suggests the demands of oogenesis in this highly fecund starfish affects protein stability and turnover in somatic cells. Together, these circannual changes in gene expression provide novel insights into seasonal changes in this coral reef pest and have the potential to identify vulnerabilities for targeted biocontrol.

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

ҚЫЗЫЛОРДА ОБЛЫСЫНДАҒЫ АУА ТЕМПЕРАТУРАСЫНЫҢ 1961...2020 ЖЫЛДАР АРАЛЫҒЫНДА ӨЗГЕРУІ

The purpose of the article is to analyze the dynamics of air temperature, one of the most obvious indicators of climate change, and to determine the long-term trends of air temperature change in Kyzylorda region. Kyzylorda region is located in the south-west of Kazakhstan, is characterized by arid climate and belongs to the zone of ecological disaster. In this paper, the authors studied the changes in air temperature in the period from 1961 to 2020 based on the nonparametric statistical method of Mann–Kendall. The Mann-Kendall method is used to determine whether there is a monotonic trend in the studied data. The Mann–Kendall test is aimed at increasing the accuracy of the result of time series estimation and allows to determine the presence of a trend. The obtained results are characterized by a significant change in temperature in time series of Kyzylorda region. It is noted that for the selected period, to assess changes in the criterion Sen, the average annual temperature changes increased by 0.02...0.05°C. Seasonal trends showed an increase in average temperatures during the year, and the summer months significantly contributed to the warming observed in Kyzylorda region. The obtained data can serve as a basis for assessing both regional climate change and for assessing the ecological state, as meteorological parameters, namely air temperature is one of the important indicators in the study of atmospheric air pollution in Kyzylorda region.

Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature

Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect of annual temperature changes. However, the roles of precipitation, temperature variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections of climate models with empirical dose–response functions translating shifts in temperature means and variability, rainfall patterns and extreme precipitation into economic damage, we show that at +3 °C global average losses reach 10% of gross domestic product, with worst effects (up to 17%) in poorer, low-latitude countries. Relative to annual temperature damage, the additional impacts of projecting variability and extremes are smaller and dominated by interannual variability, especially at lower latitudes. However, accounting for variability and extremes when estimating the temperature dose–response function raises global economic losses by nearly two percentage points and exacerbates economic tail risks. These results call for region-specific risk assessments and the integration of other climate variables for a better understanding of climate change impacts.

Analysis of rapid snow and ice cover loss in mountain glaciers of arid and semi-arid regions using remote sensing data

This article investigates the effects of climate change on snow cover and glacier in mountainous glacial areas in northern region of Iran. Due to the lack of glacier measuring stations, accurately assessing changes in snow cover over the past two decades is a challenge for water experts. This research instead utilized remote sensing data from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite in Google Earth Engine (GEE) system covering the period from 2000 to 2020. The annual temperature changes near the Earth's surface, using ERA5 data, showed a significant increase of 1.5 °C in average temperature over the past thirty years. The Mann-Kendall test confirms the statistical significance of the temperature rise, with a significance value of 3.5 and a p-value of 0.002. For MODIS data validation, two methods of overall accuracy and the Kappa coefficient were used with 93% and 85% of accuracy. While the annual snowfall and volume have remained relatively stable over the past 20 years, the findings indicate a decreasing trend of snow cover during warmer months (summer) due to rising air temperatures. The findings show a strong negative correlation coefficient of −0.8 between snow cover and annual average temperature. The results indicate a 30% decrease in summer snow cover compared to the spatial extent of two decades ago. The rapid snowmelt poses a significant threat to permanent glaciers in the region as the protective snow cover diminishes, putting these glaciers at risk of completely melting in the future. The loss of these glaciers will have severe consequences for the environment, including impacts on local water supplies, river flows, and the ecosystem.

Impact of permafrost degradation on the extreme increase of dissolved iron concentration in the Amur river during 1995–1997

Primary production in the Sea of Okhotsk is largely supported by dissolved iron (dFe) transported by the Amur river, indicating the importance of dFe discharge from terrestrial environments. However, little is known about the mechanisms of dFe discharge into the Amur river, especially in terms of long-term change in dFe concentration. In the Amur river, extreme increase in dFe concentration was observed between 1995 and 1997, the cause of which remains unclear. As a cause of this iron anomaly, we considered the impact of permafrost degradation. To link the permafrost degradation to long-term variation in dFe concentration, we examined the changes in annual air temperature (Ta), accumulated temperature (AT), and net precipitation for three regions (northeast, south, and northwest) of the basin between 1960 and 2006. Ta and AT were relatively high in one out of every few years, and were especially high during 1988–1990 continuously. Net precipitation in late summer (July to September) has increased since 1977 and has stayed positive until 2006 throughout the basin. Most importantly, we found significant correlations between Ta and late summer dFe concentration with a 7-year lag (r = 0.54–0.69, p < 0.01), which indicate a close relationship between high Ta in year Y and increased late summer dFe concentration in year Y + 7. This correlation was the strongest in northeastern Amur basin where permafrost coverage is the highest. Similar 7-year lag correlation was also found between AT in the northeastern basin and late summer dFe concentration (r = 0.51, p < 0.01). Based on our findings, we propose the following hypothesis as a cause of iron anomaly. (1) Increased net precipitation since 1977 has increased soil moisture, which created suitable conditions for microbial dFe generation; (2) permafrost degradation during the warm years of 1988–1990 promoted iron bioavailability and led to the intensive dFe generation in the deeper part of the active layer; and (3) dFe took approximately 7 years to reach the rivers and extremely increased dFe concentration during 1995–1997. This is the first study to suggest the time-lagged impact of permafrost degradation on iron biogeochemistry in the Amur river basin.