Annual Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

An Assessment of Changes in the Thermal Environment during the COVID-19 Lockdown: Case Studies from the Greenland and Norwegian Seas

The COVID-19 lockdown had a significant impact on human activities, reducing anthropogenic heat and CO2 emissions. To effectively assess the impact of the lockdown on the thermal environment, we used the sliding paired t-test, which we improved from the traditional sliding t-test by introducing the paired t-test for sliding statistical tests, to test the abrupt change in the thermal environment. Furthermore, an additive decomposition model and wavelet analysis method were used to analyze the characteristics of trend and irregular change, coherence, and phase difference of the time series data with respect to the thermal environment. We chose the Greenland Sea and the Norwegian Sea, regions highly sensitive to changes in climate and ocean circulation, as case studies and used remote sensing data of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric CO2 concentration data obtained from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center from January 2015 to December 2021 for the analysis. The results show that although the annual spatial mean SST in 2020 is lower than the mean of all 7 years in most areas of the two seas, there is no evidence of a significant mutation in the decrease in the SST during the lockdown in 2020 compared with the temperatures before, according to the sliding paired t-test. The analysis of the irregular components of the monthly mean SST decomposed by an additive decomposition model also does not show the anomalously low SST during the lockdown in 2020. In addition, the lockdown had almost no impact on the increasing trend of CO2 concentration. The wavelet analysis also shows that there is no obvious anomaly in coherence or phase difference between the periodic variation of the SST and the CO2 concentrations in 2020 compared with other years. These results suggest that the direct effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on the thermal environment of the study area could be negligible.

An Assessment of Changes in the Thermal Environment during the COVID-19 Lockdown: Case Studies from the Greenland and Norwegian Seas

The COVID-19 lockdown had a significant impact on human activities, reducing anthropogenic heat and CO2 emissions. To effectively assess the impact of the lockdown on the thermal environment, we used the sliding paired t-test, which we improved from the traditional sliding t-test by introducing the paired t-test for sliding statistical tests, to test the abrupt change in the thermal environment. Furthermore, an additive decomposition model and wavelet analysis method were used to analyze the characteristics of trend and irregular change, coherence, and phase difference of the time series data with respect to the thermal environment. We chose the Greenland Sea and the Norwegian Sea, regions highly sensitive to changes in climate and ocean circulation, as case studies and used remote sensing data of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric CO2 concentration data obtained from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center from January 2015 to December 2021 for the analysis. The results show that although the annual spatial mean SST in 2020 is lower than the mean of all 7 years in most areas of the two seas, there is no evidence of a significant mutation in the decrease in the SST during the lockdown in 2020 compared with the temperatures before, according to the sliding paired t-test. The analysis of the irregular components of the monthly mean SST decomposed by an additive decomposition model also does not show the anomalously low SST during the lockdown in 2020. In addition, the lockdown had almost no impact on the increasing trend of CO2 concentration. The wavelet analysis also shows that there is no obvious anomaly in coherence or phase difference between the periodic variation of the SST and the CO2 concentrations in 2020 compared with other years. These results suggest that the direct effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on the thermal environment of the study area could be negligible.

Assessing satellite-derived wind speeds: insights from buoy measurements and analysis of deviation factors

ABSTRACT To evaluate the latest generation of satellite wind speed from AMSR2, ASCAT, GMI, SSMIS, SMAP, and WindSat, buoy measurements were obtained from buoys in coastal and tropical open ocean areas. Root mean square errors were calculated, resulting in values of 1.19 m/s for AMSR2, 1.25 m/s for ASCAT, 1.37 m/s for GMI, 1.38 m/s for SSMIS, 2.48 m/s for SMAP, and 1.18 m/s for WindSat. Numerous data pairs fall above the 45-degree line, mainly due to decreased buoy ac-curacy during high winds. Factors contributing to this include underestimation of buoy readings due to rough sea states and wind profile distortion. Satellite biases exhibit unimodal fluctuations over a one-year cycle, aligning with annual sea surface temperature variations. Statistical effects in extreme wind speed range cause abnormal fluctuations in statistics. Higher latitudes experi-ence larger deviations due to rough sea state. Ocean currents affect satellite wind speed observa-tions, particularly when aligned with wind direction. Coastal wind speed gradients primarily influenced from land contamination like rugged mountainous terrain along the West Coast of North America. Coastal upwelling also contributes to bias, with the west coast showing higher bias. A global comparison between SMAP and WindSat retrieval wind speeds demonstrates SMAP’s poor ability to monitor general wind speeds and validates the satellite-buoy experiment.

Climatology and variability of sea surface temperature in the Azores region and its relation to climate indices

Daily sea surface temperature (SST) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer from 1982 to 2020 were used to study the spatiotemporal variability and climatology of SST in the Azores. In addition, the relationships between the SST anomaly (SSTA) and three climate index time series for the period 1982–2020 were investigated: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The spatiotemporal variability and climatology of the SST were studied by analyzing annual, seasonal, and monthly mean SST time series and climate fields. Relationships between the SSTA and climate index time series were investigated using Pearson's correlation analysis and wavelet coherence analysis. The annual mean SST time series shows a positive linear trend of about 0.027°C per year over the period 1982–2020. The spatial variability of the linear trend shows that the positive trend is consistent throughout the study area, ranging from 0.024 to 0.034°C per year. The spatial variability is not uniform, and high values of the trend are observed in the upper northwestern part and southwestern half of the basin. Seasonal mean SST fields show a positive North-South latitudinal gradient, with higher temperatures in the south, especially in the southwestern basin. In addition, the seasonal mean SST fields show possible coastal upwelling signatures along the coast of the Azores islands in different seasons. The results of Pearson's correlation analysis between basin-averaged, de-trended monthly mean SSTA and climate indices show that SSTA shows a significant positive correlation with SOI and a negative correlation with ONI from 1982 to 2020. NAO shows positive correlation with SSTA for the December-January-February season. Wavelet coherence analysis confirms significant coherences between the Azores SSTA and the climate-ocean indices at certain time scales and periods.

Historical Marine Cold Spells in the South China Sea: Characteristics and Trends

Marine cold spells (MCSs) are extreme ocean temperature events impacting marine organisms, yet their characteristics and trends in the South China Sea (SCS) historical period remain unclear. This study systematically analyzes sea surface temperature (SST) and MCSs in the SCS using satellite observation data (OISSTv2.1) from 1982 to 2022. The climatological mean SST ranges from 22 °C near the Taiwan Strait to 29 °C near the Nansha Islands, showing notable variations. Annual SST anomalies demonstrate a heterogeneous spatial trend of approximately 0.21 ± 0.16 °C/decade (p < 0.01) across the SCS, indicating an increase in SST over time. MCS analysis uncovers spatial non-uniformity in frequency, with higher values near the Beibu Gulf and Hainan Island, and longer durations in the northeastern coastal areas. Statistical analysis indicates normal distributions for frequency and duration trends but skewness for intensity and cumulative intensity, reflecting extreme values. Winter months exhibit larger MCS occurrence areas and higher mean intensities, illustrating seasonal variability. Anticipated changes will significantly impact the ecological structure and functioning of the SCS.

On the Estimation of the Interannual Variability of the Ocean Surface Temperature in the Area of the Peruvian Upwelling

The interannual variability of the ocean surface temperature in the area of the Peruvian upwelling for the period 1980–2022 is considered according to the satellite archive GODAS (Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) using the methods of multivariate statistical analysis. Local foci of significant trends, for average annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) values, were identified near the Peruvian offshore. Four regions (clusters) were obtained, which describe the variability of SST in front off Peru, which could be used to pretend to develop a prognostic oceanographic model. Furthermore, coincidences of temperature fluctuations were found between the first cluster and the region N3+4

Mesoscale mosaics of interannual variations in surface temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, and their relation in a coastal fishing ground

AbstractTo test the potential of high‐resolution satellite image analysis for assessing and predicting the mesoscale (<10 km in this study) effects of climate and environmental change on temperature and primary productivity in fishing grounds, we conducted satellite image analysis around an island in a coastal strait west of Japan from 2018 to 2023. We observed a distinct north–south gradient in sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) over approximately 20 km of the transect, which was likely affected by the current system. The model configuration suggests that the frequency of southward currents during winter–spring can control the magnitude of spring phytoplankton blooms. In the study region, an increase in SST at a rate of 0.06–0.13°C y−1 occurred during the study period, accompanied by a decrease in CHL. The north–south gradient in the rate of change suggests that the variation in the temperature and flow rate of the Kuroshio Current into the study area was due to these abrupt changes. The relationship between the annual mean SST and CHL was also spatially heterogeneous, showing a higher sensitivity of CHL to SST in the southwest of the island than in the north. In addition to the intrusion of warm and oligotrophic Kuroshio waters, the spread of less saline and more eutrophic coastal waters likely influenced this spatial heterogeneity. The satellite image analysis in the present study successfully revealed mesoscale mosaics of environmental conditions in coastal fishery grounds.

Environmental drivers of global variation in home range size of terrestrial and marine mammals.

As animal home range size (HRS) provides valuable information for species conservation, it is important to understand the driving factors of HRS variation. It is widely known that differences in species traits (e.g. body mass) are major contributors to variation in mammal HRS. However, most studies examining how environmental variation explains mammal HRS variation have been limited to a few species, or only included a single (mean) HRS estimate for the majority of species, neglecting intraspecific HRS variation. Additionally, most studies examining environmental drivers of HRS variation included only terrestrial species, neglecting marine species. Using a novel dataset of 2800 HRS estimates from 586 terrestrial and 27 marine mammal species, we quantified the relationships between HRS and environmental variables, accounting for species traits. Our results indicate that terrestrial mammal HRS was on average 5.3 times larger in areas with low human disturbance (human footprint index [HFI] = 0), compared to areas with maximum human disturbance (HFI = 50). Similarly, HRS was on average 5.4 times larger in areas with low annual mean productivity (NDVI = 0), compared to areas with high productivity (NDVI = 1). In addition, HRS increased by a factor of 1.9 on average from low to high seasonality in productivity (standard deviation (SD) of monthly NDVI from 0 to 0.36). Of these environmental variables, human disturbance and annual mean productivity explained a larger proportion of HRS variance than seasonality in productivity. Marine mammal HRS decreased, on average, by a factor of 3.7 per 10°C decline in annual mean sea surface temperature (SST), and increased by a factor of 1.5 per 1°C increase in SST seasonality (SD of monthly values). Annual mean SST explained more variance in HRS than SST seasonality. Due to the small sample size, caution should be taken when interpreting the marine mammal results. Our results indicate that environmental variation is relevant for HRS and that future environmental changes might alter the HRS of individuals, with potential consequences for ecosystem functioning and the effectiveness of conservation actions.

Holocene Paleoclimate Records in Equatorial West Africa: Insights Based on the Characterization of Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers

One gravity core retrieved from the Niger Delta was used to explore the origin of deposited organic matter (OM) and the paleo-climatic and environmental conditions over the Holocene in equatorial West Africa. The geochemical properties of sediments including glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and elemental (%OC, %N, C/N) and isotopic (δ13Corg, δ15N) signatures were determined. The determination constrained the age of the column and revealed that the sediment OM was mainly derived from a marine source. The isoprenoid (iso)GDGTs were the dominant GDGTs, with a small amount of branched (br)GDGTs, which led to a low-branched and isoprenoid tetraether index (BIT, 0.02–0.21) and represented a low terrestrial input. Most isoGDGTs and OH-GDGTs were produced in situ by Marine Group I (MG-I) Thaumarchaeota, while the brGDGTs were mainly transported from land. A two-endmember model quantified the contribution of terrestrial OM, as 0.9–19.9% by BIT and 1.1–32.6% by δ13C. Accordingly, the millennium-scale sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were reconstructed based on the cyclopentane ring distribution (TEX86H) and the ring index of OH-GDGTs (RI-OH). The top core SSTs were lower than the modern mean annual SST due to the growth season and habitat depth of Thaumarchaeota. The reconstructed SSTs clearly revealed the four stages of paleoclimate change, in particular, the drought episode of 8.2 kyr and the following humid period. The above research has enhanced our understanding of the paleoclimate change in river outflow during the Holocene at the millennium scale.

Quantifying the probability of a successful marine bioinvasion due to source-destination risk factors.

The increasing spread of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) due to the growth in global shipping traffic is causing widespread concern for the ecological and economic impacts of marine bioinvasions. Risk management authorities need tools to identify pathways and source regions of priority concern to better target efforts for preventing NIS introduction. The probability of a successful NIS introduction is affected by the likelihood that a marine species entrained in a transport vector will survive the voyage between origin and destination locations and establish an independently reproducing population at the destination. Three important risk factors are voyage duration, range of environmental conditions encountered during transit and environmental similarity between origin and destination. In this study, we aimed for a globally comprehensive approach to assembling quantifications of source-destination risk factors from every potential origin to every potential destination. To derive estimates of voyage-related marine biosecurity risk, we used computer-simulated vessel paths between pairs of ecoprovinces in the Marine Ecoregions Of the World biogeographic classification system. We used the physical length of each path to calculate voyage duration risk and the cross-latitudinal extent of the path to calculate voyage path risk. Environmental similarity risk was based on comparing annual average sea surface temperature and salinity within each ecoprovince to those of other ecoprovinces. We derived three separate sets of risk quantifications, one each for voyage duration, voyage path and environmental similarity. Our quantifications can be applied to studies that require source-destination risk estimates. They can be used separately or combined, depending on the importance of the types of source-destination risks that might be relevant to particular scientific or risk management questions or applications.

Large-scale environmental signals in seagrass blue carbon stocks are hidden by high variability at local scales

Increasing focus on nature-based climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies has led to the recognition of seagrasses as globally significant organic carbon (Corg) stocks. However, estimates of carbon stocks have been generally confined to a few regions, with few African studies represented in global datasets. In addition, the extent to which biogeographical and environmental variation shape carbon stocks in marine vegetated environments remains uncertain. For South Africa, Zostera capensis is the dominant seagrass species with limited mapping and quantification of its Corg stocks. Here, we measured Z. capensis Corg stocks at six South African estuaries spanning ∼1800 km of the cool-temperate to subtropical marine environmental gradient. Targeting the intertidal zone of the upper and lower estuary reaches, we collected Z. capensis sediments to a depth of 50 cm and measured the Corg, with the median Corg stock estimated at 24.11 Mg C ha−1 (40.4 ± 53.02; mean ± SD). While this is lower than the global average, these data demonstrate that Z. capensis ecosystems are important contributors to blue carbon stocks in the region. Measured Corg stocks showed significant differences between sampling sites for estuaries; however, we did not detect significant differences between estuaries due to high intra-estuarine Corg variability. Examination of biogeographical regions, terrestrial and marine environmental variables as drivers of Corg variability revealed that annual mean sea surface temperature may explain variation in Corg stocks. Furthermore, we found evidence of signals of biogeographical regions and precipitation driving some of the variability in Corg stocks; however, this requires further investigation. Overall, our estimates for Z. capensis add to ongoing national and global efforts to quantify seagrass Corg stocks across environmental and biogeographic gradients to better determine their contributions as nature-based solutions to climate change.

Modulations of ocean-atmosphere interactions on squid abundance over Southwest Atlantic

Anthropogenic shifts in seas are reshaping fishing trends, with significant implications for aquatic food sources throughout this century. Examining a 21-year abundance dataset of Argentine shortfin squids Illex argentinus paired with a regional oceanic analysis, we noted strong correlations between squid annual abundance and sea surface temperature (SST) in January and February and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) from March to May in the Southwest Atlantic. A deeper analysis revealed combined ocean-atmosphere interactions, pinpointed as the primary mode in a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of SST. This pattern produced colder SST and amplified EKE in the surrounding seas, factors crucial for the unique life stages of squids. Future projections from the CMIP6 archive indicated that this ocean-atmosphere pattern, referred to as the Atlantic symmetric pattern, would persist in its cold SST phase, promoting increased squid abundance. However, rising SSTs due to global warming might counteract the abundance gains. Our findings uncover a previously unrecognized link between squids and specific environmental conditions governed by broader ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Southwest Atlantic. Integrating these insights with seasonal and decadal projections can offer invaluable information to stakeholders in squid fisheries and marine conservation under a changing climate.

Multiyear variability of cloud genera in Krakow in the context of changes in the thermal state of the North Atlantic

AbstractThe analysis conducted in this study examines the relationships between changes in cloud cover and the occurrence of cloud genera in Krakow, Poland, and the variations in the thermal state of the North Atlantic (NA) from 1951 to 2020. The existence of areas where annual sea surface temperature (SST) changes exhibit statistically significant correlations with the annual frequency of specific cloud genera was observed. These relationships vary in space: An increase in SST over the NA, particularly in the western and central regions of the subtropical NA, leads to a decrease in the frequency of stratiform clouds at all levels (Cs, As, Ns and St) and an increase in the frequency of convective clouds (Cu, Sc). An attempt to explain this phenomenon demonstrates that there is a correlation between the frequency of specific cloud genera and the variability of meridional SST gradients, as well as changes in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation in the NA (NA THC), which control the variability of mid‐tropospheric circulation (500 hPa). During positive phases of NA THC (the “warm” state of the NA), zonal circulation prevails over Europe, leading to an increase in the height of h500, an increase in the frequency of anticyclonic weather and a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic weather, including a significant proportion of frontal weather systems. Consequently, there is a reduction in frequency of stratiform clouds and an increase in the occurrence of vertically developed convective clouds, thereby increasing the possibility of observing middle‐level (Ac) and high‐level (Ci, Cc) clouds. In negative phases of NA THC (the “cool” state of the NA), the situation is reversed, with meridional circulation dominating over Europe, h500 lowering, an increase in the frequency of cyclonic systems with fronts, and an increase in the frequency of stratiform clouds. This results in decreased sunshine duration and a reduction in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface.

Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers in surficial marine sediments across shelf-to-basin depth transects in the East China Sea: Their sources and potential as sea water temperature proxies

To better understand the compositions and sources of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and their use as proxies in the East China Sea (ECS), we analysed GDGTs in surficial sediments from the ECS outer shelf, slope and Okinawa Trough (OT) in open marine settings between 126°E and 129°E at water depths of either <100 or > 1000 m. The GDGT-0/Cren. values (0.35 ± 0.04) and methane index (MI) (0.17 ± 0.02) were generally low, indicating a negligible contribution of methanogenic Euryarchaeota GDGTs to the open marine settings in the ECS and that isoprenoid GDGTs (isoGDGTs) were mainly derived from marine planktonic Thaumarchaeota. Comprehensive analysis of the degree of cyclisation (DC) (0.34–0.53), #ringstetra (0.53–0.94), and IIIa/IIa (0.54–3.24) indices indicated that branched GDGTs (brGDGTs) may be predominantly produced in situ, with minimal soil contribution in this setting. The TEXH86-derived sea surface temperatures (SST) were closer to the annual SST than the seasonal SST from the World Ocean Atlas (WOA) 2013. The methylation of the branched tetraethers (MBT) index correlated well with the mean annual bottom water temperature (BWT) from WOA 2013. Therefore, we propose that the MBT index from open marine settings in the ECS may reflect BWT changes in marine bottom environments.

Evaluating isoprenoidal hydroxylated GDGT-based temperature proxies in surface sediments from the global ocean

Recently developed temperature proxies based on hydroxylated isoprenoid Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers (OH-isoGDGTs), such as %OH, RI-OH, RI-OH′ and OHC, have shown potential for reconstructing past temperature changes. However, progress has been limited by the lack of a global core-top calibration with ample geographical coverage. Here, we compile an extensive global surface sediment dataset of OH-isoGDGTs as well as regular isoprenoid GDGTs (isoGDGTs), with both data generated at NIOZ (n = 575) and previously published data from other laboratories (n = 297). We find interlaboratory differences for proxy indices that incorporate both OH-isoGDGTs and regular isoGDGTs, indicating that care must be taken in compiling large GDGT datasets from multiple laboratories. Our results confirm a strong temperature signal in the isoGDGT distribution, especially for OH-isoGDGT-0 and non-hydroxylated isoGDGTs, but also reveal that water depth might have an impact on the distribution of OH-isoGDGTs with 1 and 2 cyclopentane moieties. This will affect the RI-OH and RI-OH′ indices, particularly in tropical regions, where OH-isoGDGT-0 occurs at low abundance. We explore new proxy indices that combine the temperature dependence of both isoGDGT and OH-isoGDGT distributions and propose the use of TEX86OH, which includes OH-isoGDGT-0 in the denominator of the TEX86 index. This modification leads to a much higher temperature sensitivity of the index, especially in regions with annual mean sea surface temperatures between 5 and 15 °C. Application of this novel paleothermometer to a polar sediment core suggests that this proxy is likely to result in more reliable temperature reconstructions in polar regions where OH-isoGDGTs are abundant.

Noble gases in groundwater reflect wet-season temperature in an arid, monsoonal, and mountainous environment

Comparing directly measured soil temperatures with noble gas recharge temperatures (NGTs) inferred from noble gas concentrations indicates that the infiltrating soil water equilibrates with soil air near the soil surface during the rainy season. Therefore, NGTs of groundwater recently recharged by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) in the Dhofar Mountains in southern Oman reflect the soil temperatures of the 3-month period and do not represent an annual mean. This finding highlights the need to account for seasonality when interpreting NGT data in regions with pronounced dry and wet seasons.We extend the observations from the southern flank of the Dhofar Mountains to three wells situated on the northern flank of the Dhofar Mountains. Two of these wells yield water of Holocene age that was recharged by the monsoon, their NGT signals are therefore classified as seasonal. The NGT calculated from a third well for recharge conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), when the ISM was absent, is approximately 3 °C lower than that of the two Holocene wells. The lower LGM noble gas temperature corresponds well with the lower annual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the nearby Arabian Sea.NGTs from published studies from northern Oman are 1–3 °C higher when compared with our data of the same period in the southern Oman. We explain this regional difference of reconstructed temperatures for the LGM and Holocene groundwater with a more continental climatic influence on the infiltration conditions further to the north. The published NGTs from northern Oman show a large temperature difference between the late Holocene and the LGM. In view of our finding of seasonal NGT signals under monsoonal climate, part of this difference may reflect a change in the precipitation regime rather than in air temperature.

Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6

One of the most dramatic climate responses to future global warming is the near-disappearance of the perennial sea ice cover in the central Arctic Ocean, a phenomenon known as the ice-free summer Arctic. The immediate consequence of an ice-free Arctic would be the surface warming of the central Arctic Ocean, where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used to be at freezing levels. Through an analysis of climate models participating in the climate model intercomparison project phase-6, this study demonstrates a wide range of responses in the central Arctic SSTs in August–September as a result of the projected ice-free summer Arctic. These responses vary from 0.7 to 8 °C in the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2-4.5), referred to as the ‘middle of the road’ scenario, in which socioeconomic and technological trends do not significantly deviate from historical patterns. The extent of the central Arctic sea surface warming in August–September is found to have a loose correlation with the September sea ice extent (SIE), but a stronger connection to the SIE during spring to early summer (May–July), when incoming shortwave radiation is most intense. In certain climate models, the perennial sea ice cover disappears completely in September, causing central Arctic SSTs to rise by 5 °C–8 °C by the end of the 21st century. This leads to a bimodal distribution of annual SSTs. Further analysis reveals a close relationship between mid-summer SSTs in the central Arctic Ocean and preceding winter sea ice thickness (SIT). This underscores the significance of winter SIT in predicting future Arctic surface warming and marine heatwaves.

Impact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator.

The Arctic is among the most climatically sensitive environments on Earth, and the disappearance of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is predicted within decades. As apex predators, polar bears are sentinel species for addressing the impact of environmental variability on Arctic marine ecosystems. By integrating genomics, isotopic analysis, morphometrics, and ecological modeling, we investigate how Holocene environmental changes affected polar bears around Greenland. We uncover reductions in effective population size coinciding with increases in annual mean sea surface temperature, reduction in sea ice cover, declines in suitable habitat, and shifts in suitable habitat northward. Furthermore, we show that west and east Greenlandic polar bears are morphologically, and ecologically distinct, putatively driven by regional biotic and genetic differences. Together, we provide insights into the vulnerability of polar bears to environmental change and how the Arctic marine ecosystem plays a vital role in shaping the evolutionary and ecological trajectories of its inhabitants.

Multi‐Year Predictability of Global Sea Surface Temperature Using Model‐Analogs

AbstractThe multi‐year predictability of global sea surface temperature (SST) is examined by applying a model‐analog method to four control simulations to make forecasts at leads of 1–36 months over 1961–2015. The forecasts are found to have skill for annual mean SST at Year 2 (i.e., leads of 13–24 months) or even Year 3 (i.e., leads of 25–36 months) in the tropical Pacific, the North and South Pacific, the southwest Indian Ocean, and the northwestern tropical Atlantic. The seasonality in forecast skill suggests that July is the best time to initialize multi‐year forecasts. The evolution of forecast skill for tropical Pacific SSTs indicates that the predictability of some El Niño Southern Oscillation events is nearly the same at leads of 6 and 18 or 24 months. Further, these El Niño and La Niña events can be predicted at leads of up to 24 and 30 months, respectively.

Seasonal Dependence of the Pacific–North American Teleconnection Associated with ENSO and Its Interaction with the Annual Cycle

Abstract The Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern is one of the prominent atmospheric circulation modes in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, and its seasonal to interannual predictability is suggested to originate from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Intriguingly, the PNA teleconnection pattern exhibits variance at near-annual frequencies, which is related to a rapid phase reversal of the PNA pattern during ENSO years, whereas the ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific are evolving much slower in time. This distinct seasonal feature of the PNA pattern can be explained by an amplitude modulation of the interannual ENSO signal by the annual cycle (i.e., the ENSO combination mode). The ENSO-related seasonal phase transition of the PNA pattern is reproduced well in an atmospheric general circulation model when both the background SST annual cycle and ENSO SST anomalies are prescribed. In contrast, this characteristic seasonal evolution of the PNA pattern is absent when the tropical Pacific background SST annual cycle is not considered in the modeling experiments. The background SST annual cycle in the tropical Pacific modulates the ENSO-associated tropical Pacific convection response, leading to a rapid enhancement of convection anomalies in winter. The enhanced convection results in a fast establishment of the large-scale PNA teleconnection during ENSO years. The dynamics of this ENSO–annual cycle interaction fills an important gap in our understanding of the seasonally modulated PNA teleconnection pattern during ENSO years.