Annual Recovery Rates Research Articles

Grazing exclusion is more effective for vegetation restoration and nutrient transfer in the heavily degraded desert steppe

BackgroundGrazing exclusion is an efficient practice to restore degraded grassland ecosystems by eliminating external disturbances and improving ecosystems’ self-healing capacities, which affects the ecological processes of soil-plant systems. Grassland degradation levels play a critical role in regulating these ecological processes. However, the effects of vegetation and soil states at different degradation stages on grassland ecosystem restoration are not fully understood. To better understand this, desert steppe at three levels of degradation (light, moderate, and heavy degradation) was fenced for 6 years in Inner Mongolia, China. Community characteristics were investigated, and nutrient concentrations of the soil (0–10 cm depth) and dominant plants were measured.ResultsWe found that grazing exclusion increased shoots’ carbon (C) concentrations, C/N, and C/P, but significantly decreased shoots’ nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations for Stipa breviflora and Cleistogenes songorica. Interestingly, there were no significant differences in nutrient concentrations of these two species among the three degraded desert steppes after grazing exclusion. After grazing exclusion, annual accumulation rates of aboveground C, N, and P pools in the heavily degraded area were the highest, but the aboveground nutrient pools were the lowest among the three degraded grasslands. Similarly, the annual recovery rates of community height, cover, and aboveground biomass in the heavily degraded desert steppe were the highest among the three degraded steppes after grazing exclusion. These results indicate that grazing exclusion is more effective for vegetation restoration in the heavily degraded desert steppe. The soil total carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, available nitrogen, and available phosphorus concentrations in the moderately and heavily degraded desert steppes were significantly decreased after six years of grazing exclusion, whereas these were no changes in the lightly degraded desert steppe. Structural equation model analysis showed that the grassland degradation level mainly altered the community aboveground biomass and aboveground nutrient pool, driving the decrease in soil nutrient concentrations and accelerating nutrient transfer from soil to plant community, especially in the heavily degraded grassland.ConclusionsOur study emphasizes the importance of grassland degradation level in ecosystem restoration and provides theoretical guidance for scientific formulation of containment policies.

Bioeconomic Simulation of the Cash Flow of Rural Beef Cattle Properties with Productive, Reproductive, and Sanitary Activities

This simulation study compares the technical-economic efficiency and cash flow of pasture recovery and maintenance activities, as well as improvements in mortality rate and birth rate, in different beef production systems. Three production systems were elaborated for the Cerrado biome, characterized as extensive, semi-intensive 1, and semi-intensive 2, with respective annual pasture recovery and maintenance rates of 0% and 25% for the extensive system, 5% and 25% for semi-intensive system 1, and 7% and 33% for semi-intensive system 2. Mortality rates at weaning are 6% for the extensive system and 3% for semi-intensive systems 1 and 2. The extensive system's gross profit was lower at US$ 40471.00, followed by US$ 41830.00 and US$ 148669.00 for semi-intensive systems 1 and 2, respectively. Cash flow differences point to increases in the cost of forage and other nutritional inputs in semi-intensive systems 1 and 2. Economic efficiency was observed with intensification, showing that the production costs of intensive systems increased, but that these were more profitable than the extensive system with cash balance values of: extensive system US$ 323.149; semi-intensive system 1 US$ 405.740, semi-intensive system 2 US$ 1213.224. Expenditure on pasture recovery and maintenance was high, but led to an increase in profitability; similarly, the improvement of mortality rates in semi-intensive systems 1 and 2 facilitated the economic viability of these systems.

Recovery Of Npas Through Debt Recovery Channels In Indian Banks - An Analysis

Indian Banking industry is grappling with the colossal Non-performing assets in the recent past. The amount of stressed advances was enlarged and the trend of NPA recovery remains sluggish in the Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs). According to the RBI’s Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India (2016), “Annual recovery rate of NPAs of SCBs has been steadily declining for the past 12 years and hit the lowest level of 20.8% during 2016-17”. Existing recovery channels, namely, Debt Recovery Tribunal (DRT), Lok Adalat and Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002(SARFAESI Act 2002) have witnessed the reduction in their rate of NPA recovery. In this study, an attempt is made to examine the effectiveness these channels in the reduction of NPAs. The effectiveness of the recovery channels is analyzed on the basis of the amount of NPAs recovered during the period of 13 years from 2005 to 2017. To understand the significant difference in the trend of NPA recovery among the existing channels, statistical test of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) has been used.

Survival and longevity of a White-tipped Dove (Leptotila verreauxi) population in south Texas

The White-tipped Dove (Leptotilaverreauxi) is an understudied, secretive, game species in south Texas. We banded White-tipped Doves over a 2-year period in Estero Llano Grande State Park (ELGSP) near Weslaco, Texas. We used recent banding information to estimate the first annual survival and recovery rate information for this species in the United States. We collected morphological measurements of captured individuals in June and July 2015 and 2016. We documented a new longevity record for the species in 2016. The individual was a minimum of 9 years and 1 month at encounter as it was first banded in ELGSP in 2008 as an afterhatch-year individual. Our morphological measurements were within the range reported in previous studies. Preliminary annual survival estimates indicate higher annual survival than other Columbidae and low recovery rates.

Additional Evidence Against Radio-handicapping of Northern Bobwhites

The validity of radio-telemetry to produce reliable information (e.g., survival estimates) has recently been challenged. Radio-telemetry is a widely used technique in studies of numerous species, therefore, concerns regarding potential bias in these estimates warrant further investigation. As such, and as part of a larger study, we investigated 3 aspects of potential radio-bias: 1) variation in survival distributions among treatment (newly radio-tagged) and control (previously radio-tagged) groups; 2) proportion of trapped animals censored during the traditional 7-day censor period; and 3) ramifications to cause-specific mortality through estimation of harvest rate. Kaplan-Meier survival, based on 30-day post trapping, was similar between treatment (n = 901) and control (n = 293) bobwhites for all but 1 of 8 trapping sessions during 2000-2004. In this case, treatment bobwhites (0.970, SE = 0.015) had higher survival than control birds (0.878, SE = 0.042). We determined the effect of censoring relative to sample size was inconsequential for our analysis because the proportion of bobwhites (18 out of 1,350; 0.013) meeting the criteria for censoring, i.e., dying during the first 7 days, was minimal. Censoring of these data influenced survival estimates by an average of only 0.016 (SE = 0.004; range: 0.00 - 0.04). We evaluated harvest rate by comparing first year recovery rates of banded verses radio-tagged birds during thirteen hunting seasons occurring between 1992 and 2005. Annual recovery rate was not different (P < 0.05) for banded birds and radio-tagged birds where harvest averaged 6.68% (range 3.3 - 11.7) and 6.65% (range 3.4 - 11.1), respectively. These findings are consistent with previous research demonstrating that radio-telemetry can provide reliable demographic information. However, we recommend that future researchers test for these potential effects among their data before making biological inferences.

Survival and harvest characteristics of giant Canada geese in eastern South Dakota, 2000-2004

The population of giant Canada geese (Branta canadensis maxima) in eastern South Dakota has increased substantially since reintroduction efforts began in the 1960s. Breeding population estimates of Canada geese exceeded the population management objective of the South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks by the mid-1990s and has continued to increase at an estimated rate of 3 to 5% per year. Goose-related crop damage complaints have also increased. In 1996, a September hunting season (September 1 to 15) was implemented in 10 counties in eastern South Dakota and was expanded in 2000 to include most of eastern South Dakota. We initiated this study during 2000 to 2004 to estimate survival, harvest, and recovery rates of giant Canada geese. We captured and leg-banded Canada geese in 7 counties in eastern South Dakota during the summers of 2000 to 2003. Of the total leg-banded sample (n = 3,839), we recovered 648 bands during the same year that they were placed on geese (i.e., direct harvest rate), and we recovered 645 banded geese in later years (i.e., indirect recovery rate). Estimates of annual survival rate (95% CI) for adults and immatures were 0.52 (0.46 to 0.59) and 0.68 (0.57 to 0.79), respectively. Estimates of annual recovery rates (95% CI) for adult and immature geese were 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) and 0.18 (0.14 to 0.21), respectively. Of the total recoveries, 77 and 69% of direct and indirect band recoveries, respectively, occurred in South Dakota. The composite harvest rate estimate during the period studied was 0.22 (0.20 to 0.24). Forty-nine percent of adult recoveries and 44% of immature recoveries (direct and indirect pooled for both age classes) occurred during the September season. In comparison to a previous band-recovery study of resident giant Canada geese in eastern South Dakota, survival rates for both adult and immature geese have declined, while recovery and harvest rates have increased. Survival estimates for this study were some of the lowest documented for giant Canada geese. However, it appears that even with a September hunting season targeting the local breeding population, declines in adult survival documented during this study are not reducing the population. Alternative management strategies may be necessary to reduce the population to achieve the management objective.

Estimation of Band-Tailed Pigeon Band Recovery and Population Vital Rates in Colorado, 1969–1981

AbstractData to inform population assessment of the Interior subspecies of band-tailed pigeon, Patagioenas fasciata fasciata (breeding range from Colorado and Utah south into Sierra Madre Occidental of Mexico), have been lacking despite substantial past banding efforts. We used a data set of more than 26,000 bandings from Colorado, with 3,500 live recaptures and 780 recoveries from the harvest of banded individuals to estimate annual survival, fidelity, and harvest rates. Most birds were harvested in Colorado (62%) followed by Mexico (18%); New Mexico (16%); Arizona (3%); and 1% or less each in California, Washington, and Utah. On average, each year 15% (range 0–30%) of surviving band-tailed pigeons did not return to Colorado. From 1969 to 1981 mean annual survival was 0.633 (standard error [SE] = 0.031) for hatch-year and 0.719 (SE = 0.016) for after-hatch-year birds, with a mean annual recovery rate of 0.015 (SE = 0.002) for hatch-year and 0.011 (SE = 0.001) for after-hatch-year birds. From 1970 to 1974, mean annual abundance of band-tailed pigeons in Colorado on 1 September was 59,911–88,290. These data provide a baseline for additional data collection for band-tailed pigeons in the range of the Interior subspecies.

Temporal variation in survival and recovery rates of lesser scaup

Management of lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) has been hindered by access to reliable data on population trajectories and vital rates. We conducted a Bayesian analysis of historical (1951–2011) band-recovery data throughout North America to estimate annual survival and recovery rates for juvenile and adult male and female lesser scaup to determine if increasing harvest or declining survival rates have contributed to population changes and to determine if harvest has been primarily additive or compensatory. Annual recovery rates were low, ranging from 1% to 4% for adults and 2% to 10% for juveniles during most years, with trend models indicating that recovery rates have declined through time for all age–sex classes. Annual survival (mid-Aug to mid-Aug) averaged 0.402 ( 0.043) for juvenile males, 0.416 ( 0.067) for juvenile females, 0.689 ( 0.109) for adult males, and 0.602 ( 0.115) for adult females, where represents an estimate of annual process variation in each survival rate. Annual survival rates exhibited no evidence of long-term declines or negative correlations with annual recovery rates (i.e., an index of harvest intensity) for any age–sex class, suggesting that declining fecundity was the most likely explanation for population declines during 1975–2005. We conclude that hunting mortality played a minor role in affecting population dynamics of lesser scaup and waterfowl managers could take a less cautious approach in managing harvest, especially if recruiting or maintaining waterfowl hunters are viewed as important management objectives. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

Consequences of hunter harvest, winter weather, and increasing population size on survival of non‐migratory Canada geese in Connecticut

ABSTRACTIn the last few decades, non‐migratory populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis) have become established in metropolitan areas throughout North America. We banded 1,845 Canada geese in New Haven County, Connecticut, and studied goose survival of geese from 1984 through 2001, a period when local goose numbers increased several fold. Males outnumbered females among adults but not among juveniles. The hunter‐recovery proportion (probability that a goose was harvested by a hunter and its band reported to the U.S. Banding Lab) was 0.17 for all banded geese and was higher for males (0.19) than females (0.15). We used the Seber band‐recovery model in Program MARK to estimate the annual recovery rate and annual survival rate. The annual recovery rate was 0.22 for all geese and varied by year. The annual survival rate was 0.72 for all geese; survival was higher for females than males and higher for juveniles than adults. Survival rates varied among years and decreased in years with higher winter temperatures or more geese observed during Audubon's Christmas Bird Count. During our study, special hunting seasons in Connecticut targeted non‐migratory geese. Despite this, we found survival rates to be at the high end of values reported elsewhere, and the number of geese killed by hunters in Connecticut did not influence survival. Our results suggest that it will be difficult for wildlife agencies to rely solely on hunting to reduce the size of non‐migratory goose populations. © 2015 The Wildlife Society.

Stochastic model for hepatitis B virus infection through maternal (vertical) and environmental (horizontal) transmission with applications to basic reproductive number estimation and economic appraisal of preventive strategies

Elucidating the temporal natural history of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection provides not only useful information for assessing the spread of HBV infection but also a bedrock for economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategies (such as universal vaccination). HBV transmissions are transmitted through the maternal (vertical) route and environmental (horizontal) route. As the infection process from susceptible to active virus replication and finally to recovery state or to carrier state through both routes is not directly observable, mathematical models were therefore proposed to quantitatively elucidate the dynamic process of HBV infection with time. We began with a simple two-state model (from susceptible to infection) and further developed a five-state (including susceptible, latent phase, active viral replication, carrier, and recovery states) stochastic process to quantify the dynamics of HBV infection, making allowances for a mixed proportion of vertical and horizontal transmissions. The data used in the estimation, which were collected before implementation of a policy for universal HBV vaccination, were derived from several previous serum prevalence studies, including both low (northern) and high (southern) HBV prevalence areas, in Taiwan. The parameters obtained from stochastic models were converted to compute the basic reproductive number (R0) in each study to indicate the extent of the spread of HBV infection. By linking the temporal natural history of HBV infection with the previously established Markov process for the sequelae of HBV infection (chronic hepatitis infection, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocelluar carcinoma), we developed a Markov cycle decision tree to evaluate the two population-based preventive strategies related to vaccination and maternal lamivudine use with a cost-effectiveness analysis. In the five-state model, horizontal transmission was found to contribute more to HBV infection than vertical transmission in the northern area (59 vs. 41 %), whereas vertical transmission was more likely than horizontal transmission in the southern area (80 vs. 20 %). After considering the parameters of the two transmission routes, annual infection rate (person-years) for susceptible subjects was higher in the northern area (0.35) than the southern area (0.011). A similar finding was noted for annual rate of the transition from the latent period to active viral replications (1.12 in the northern area and 0.072 in the southern area). Annual rate of the conversion from active viral replication to the carrier state was higher in the southern area (0.184) than the northern area (0.119). Annual recovery rates were 0.014 in the northern area and 0.024 in the southern area for the carrier and 0.048 and 0.088 for transient viremia. The R0 at age 30 using the parameters obtained from the five-state stochastic model was estimated as 4.88 in the northern and 7.03 in the southern area. Regarding the findings of economic appraisal, both preventive strategies were cost-saving, yielding the negative value of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, compared with the baseline group (no intervention), regardless of areas. The preventive strategies in the southern area were more cost-saving than those in the northern area. The consolidation of elucidating the temporal natural history of HBV infection, estimating basic reproductive number, and conducting an economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategy can aid health policy-makers in designing effective preventive strategies in other countries worldwide where HBV is still prevalent. However, the empirical findings on transmission routes and the temporal evolution of HBV infection varying with areas should be considered with great caution as only two studies were modeled.

The need for novel strategies to analyze the dynamic pattern of worker’s health over time and the consequences for sustained employability

The need for novel strategies to analyze the dynamic pattern of worker’s health over time and the consequences for sustained employability

Groundwater Overexploitation Causing Land Subsidence: Hazard Risk Assessment Using Field Observation and Spatial Modelling

Hazard risk assessment of land subsidence is a complicated issue aiming at identifying areas with potentially high environmental hazard due to land subsidence. The methods of hazard risk assessment of land subsidence were reviewed and a new systematic approach was proposed in this study. Quantitative identification of land subsidence is important to the hazard risk assessment. Field observations using extensometers were used to determine assessment indexes and estimate weights of each index. Spatial modelling was also established in ArcGIS to better visualize the assessment data. These approaches then were applied to the Chengnan region, China as a case study. Three factors, thickness of the second confined aquifer, thickness of the soft clay and the annual recovery rate of groundwater level were incorporated into the hazard risk assessment index system. The weights of each index are 0.33, 0.17 and 0.5 respectively. The zonation map shows that the high, medium and low risk ranked areas for land subsidence account for 9.5 %, 44.7 % and 45.8 % of the total area respectively. The annual recovery rate of groundwater level is the major factor raising land subsidence hazard risk in approximately half of the study area.

Prevalence, severity, lethality, and recovery of dark spots syndrome among three Floridian reef-building corals

Disease affects the growth and survival of reef building corals. Prevalence, severity, lethality, and recovery of dark spots syndrome (DSS) was measured on three common scleractinian corals, Montastraea annularis complex, Siderastrea siderea, and Stephanocoenia michelinii on seven reefs in the Florida Keys. Between 2002 and 2004, DSS was the most common disease, responsible for 71.2% ± 5.7 S.E. of all disease infections in the total coral population. Prevalence ranged from 26.3% ± 17.6 S.E. for M. annularis, 7.5% ± 2.9 for S. siderea to 3.0% ± 0.1 for S. michelinii. DSS severity (expressed as the percent of diseased colony surface area) ranged from 0.55% ± 0.12 S.E. for M. annularis, 4.8% ± 0.63 for S. siderea to 0.83% ± 0.31 for S. michelinii. DSS rarely caused whole colony mortality (0.0% yr − 1 for Montastraea annularis, 0.3% yr − 1 for Siderastrea siderea, and 3.8% yr − 1 for Stephanocoenia michelinii), but was a significant source of partial mortality. During the 2002–2003 survey period, net tissue loss per annum due to DSS was 0.3% yr − 1 for M. annularis, 1.0% yr − 1 for S. siderea, and 8.8% yr − 1 for S. michelinii. Total net tissue loss for these three species, from all sources of mortality, was 0.45%, 1.0%, and 8.8% respectively, demonstrating that DSS was the only source of mortality for S. michelinii and S. siderea during this period, and accounted for two-thirds of all tissue loss from M. annularis colonies. DSS recovery rates were variable, depending on the target species. DSS signs in 86.8% of M. annularis colonies and 73.3% of S. michelinii colonies identified in 2002 and 2003 persisted through the end of the survey (2004). By contrast, among S. siderea only 33.3% of colonies affected in 2002 and 2003 continued to exhibit disease signs by 2004. Annual recovery rates from DSS were also species-dependent: 32.9% of DSS-affected S. siderea colonies recovered annually, but, by contrast, only 6.6% and 10.0% of DSS-affected M. annularis and S. michelinii colonies had done so. DSS appears to be a significant source of both whole and partial mortality for S. michelinii, but not for the other two species during this survey.

Predominantly northward dispersal of Grey Herons Ardea cinerea from a heronry in Greater Manchester, UK

In 1988 a ringing study was commenced with the aim of determining patterns of dispersal from a large heronry in Greater Manchester, north‐west England. Between 1988 and 2008, over 900 nestling Grey Herons Ardea cinerea were ringed at the heronry, rings from 53 of which were subsequently recovered. The overall annual recovery rate was 5.7% but this declined significantly from 7.5% between 1988 and 1996 to 3.8% between 1997 and 2007. Around 60% of ring recoveries were within the first year of the bird's life. There was a statistically significant bias in dispersal direction towards the north‐east, with a number of birds being reported in midwinter up to 100 km to the north‐east. This predominantly northeastward dispersal may have been associated with a range extension in that direction, facilitated by a succession of milder winters.

Recovery patterns of corals at Shabror Umm Gam’ar, Hurghada, Red Sea, Egypt, after the 1998 outbreak of Acanthaster planci

Recovery patterns of corals were estimated after the Crown-of-thorns Starfish Acanthaster planci outbreak in 1998 at Shabror Umm Gam’ar, Hurghada, Egyptian Red Sea. The significance of using linear extrapolation was tested at ten sites by comparison with the actual average yearly recovery rates. A total of 15 permanent transects, each 10 m long, was monitored at 10 and 12 m depths at Shabror Umm Gam’ar for three years and the recovery rates were estimated by linear extrapolation. Ten other selected sites around Hurghada were monitored annually for nine years after the complete cessation of severe anchor damage. The recovery rates were estimated both by the actual annual recovery rate and by linear extrapolation. The recovery rate estimated by linear extrapolation did not differ significantly from the recovery rate of stony corals in the ten selected sites. However, an error of +7.69% to +17.5% increase in the extrapolated recovery rate exists and should be considered when handling the extrapolated recovery patterns of corals. Stony corals were characterised by having an extrapolated slow recovery time of 64.9 years in spite of the fast recovery rate (0.67% cover/year), and this is virtually due to the substantial devastation caused by A. planci. By contrast, soft corals were characterised by having a fast recovery time (RT) and recovery rate (RR) as they are not preferred prey of the Crown-of-thorns Starfish. The correlation coefficient is negative between recovery time (RT) and recovery rate (RR), strong between RT and cover required for complete recovery (CR), and weak between CR and RR. Diversity had an estimated fast recovery time (RT) of 4.3 years, indicating that the space cleared by A. planci was utilized by a high number of species (high diversity) having a smaller size (low percent cover).

Recovery of topsoil physicochemical properties in revegetated sites in the sand-burial ecosystems of the Tengger Desert, northern China

Recovery in soil properties and processes after sand burial in the Tengger Desert, northern China, was documented at five different-aged revegetated sites (1956, 1964, 1973, 1982, and 1991) and at a reference site with native vegetation, which had never been damaged by sand burial and was enclosed for grazing. The proportions of silt and clay, depth of topsoil and biological soil crusts, and concentrations of soil organic C, K, total N and total P increased with years since revegetation. Most characteristics of topsoil (0–5 cm) characteristics had recovered to 60% of those measured at the reference site by 50 years after sand-binding vegetation had been established. Exceptions were electrical conductivity and contents of sand, silt, CaCO 3 and organic C, which recovered to 20–40% of the values at the reference site. The difference in annual recovery rates of soil properties between the two most recently revegetated sites (0–14 years) was greater than the difference between the two oldest revegetated sites (43–50 years). Best-fit asymptote models showed that the estimated times for the soil properties in the 50-year-old site to reach the same levels as in the reference site (i.e. an undisturbed, native steppified desert ecosystem) would be between 23 and 245 years, but for some properties even maximum recovery after > 50 years still fell significantly short of the level at the reference site. These results suggest that soil recovery is a slow process in an extremely arid desert environment, and therefore the conservation of soil habitat is a crucial issue for land managers.

The course of chronic pain in the community: results of a 4-year follow-up study.

Little is known about the course of chronic pain in the community. Such information is needed for the prevention and management of chronic pain. We undertook a 4-year follow-up study of 2184 individuals living in Grampian, UK to describe patterns and predictors of change in chronic pain over time. In October 2000, participants completed a postal questionnaire including case definition questions, the chronic pain grade questionnaire, the SF-36 and socio-demographic questions. Information from this questionnaire was compared to information collected from a similar questionnaire in 1996. A response rate of 83% was achieved for the follow-up study. The overall prevalence of chronic pain (pain or discomfort present either all the time or on and off for 3 months or longer) increased from 45.5% at baseline to 53.8% at follow-up. Seventy-nine percent of those with chronic pain at baseline still had it at follow-up. The average annual incidence was 8.3% and the average annual recovery rate was 5.4%. Individuals in the study samples who are in lowest quartile of SF-36 domains--physical functioning, social functioning and bodily pain at baseline--were more likely to develop chronic pain at follow-up, and respondents who were retired were less likely to develop chronic pain. Individuals in the study samples in the lowest quartile of SF-36 domains, bodily pain and general health at baseline, were less likely to recover from their chronic pain, as were those aged 45-74 compared with those aged 25-34. We concluded that chronic pain is a common, persistent problem in the community with relatively high incidence and low recovery rates. The lack of association between onset or recovery from chronic pain and most traditional socio-demographic factors, highlights the need to broaden the range of factors included in studies of chronic pain aetiology.

Two-year syndromal and functional recovery in 219 cases of first-episode major affective disorder with psychotic features.

Psychotic affective disorders are the most prevalent idiopathic psychoses, but their outcome from onset has rarely been studied. In this study, the authors determined the rate and latency of syndromal recovery and rates of functional recovery after first lifetime hospitalization in patients with first-episode psychotic affective disorders. From first lifetime hospitalization in 1989-1996, 219 patients with a DSM-IV psychotic affective illness were assessed at intervals over 24 months. Time to syndromal recovery (no longer meeting DSM-IV episode criteria) was assessed by survival analysis, and functional recovery (regaining baseline vocational and residential status) was rated. Factors associated with recovery were identified by bivariate and multivariate methods. By 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after first hospitalization, syndromal recovery was attained by 65.1%, 83.7%, 91.1%, and 97.5%, respectively, of subjects. Time to syndromal recovery (6.1 weeks to 50% of subjects recovered) was shorter for patients who had bipolar disorder, were married, were age 30 or older at onset, lacked comorbidity, required relatively brief hospitalization, and received fewer medicines. Functional recovery by 6 (30.4%) and 24 months (37. 6% of patients) was 2.6-2.7 times less likely than syndromal recovery; 63.1% of those recovering syndromally did not recover functionally by 2 years. Functional recovery was associated with older age at onset and shorter hospitalization. Annual recovery rates remained stable as mean hospital length of stay decreased 3. 6-fold over the 8-year study period. Syndromal recovery was attained by most psychotic affective disorder patients soon after hospitalization, but only one-third recovered functionally by 24 months. The findings suggest that these very common psychotic illnesses can carry a grave functional prognosis from the initial episode and first hospitalization.

Banding Reference Areas and Survival Rates of Green-Winged Teal, 1950-89

The green-winged teal (Anas crecca carolinensis) is an important harvest species, yet we know relatively little about its population ecology. We investigated aspects of green-winged teal population ecology of potential importance to waterfowl managers. We used recoveries of green-winged teal banded during winter (1950-89) to establish banding reference areas and estimate survival and band recovery rates. We used cluster analysis based on similarities in recovery patterns to group banding degree blocks into 8 minor and 5 major reference areas describing the principal wintering range of green-winged teal in North America. We then estimated survival and recovery rates of green-winged teal banded in these areas. Mean annual survival rate estimates across years and reference areas were similar (P > 0.05) for males (0.55, SE = 0.022) and females (0.51, SE = 0.057). Mean annual recovery rate estimates were larger for males (0.033, SE = 0.0017) than for females (0.024, SE = 0.0024) (P < 0.01). There was little evidence of temporal variation in survival or recovery rates for most datasets. There was evidence of geographic variation in survival rates among major reference areas for males (P = 0.04) but not for females (P = 0.30). We recommend that analyses be conducted on green-winged teal banded during preseason to further investigate possible sex specificity of survival rates and to address questions about the relationship between harvest rates and survival.

Summer Survival Rate Estimates of Adult Wood Ducks: Implications for Banding Programs

Wood duck (Aix sponsa) preseason banding data are essential to monitor the population and to evaluate management programs. Historically, numbers of banded wood ducks have not reached established banding guals, particularly for the adult female cohort. The lack of data has led to difficulties in accurately determining annual survival and recovery rates. We hypothesized that these estimates may be improved by incorporating additional banding records from a period (15 Apr-30 Jun) prior to the traditional preseason banding period (1 Jul-15 Sep). We examined recovery distributions to determine if early and late-banded wood ducks were representative of the same populations