Changes In Annual Precipitation Research Articles

Future Projections of Precipitation Extremes for Greece Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

Future Projections of Precipitation Extremes for Greece Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Simulations

Spatial analysis of fire sevetiry and its relationship with landscape configuration in savanna areas of Sempre Vivas National Park, Brazil

Fire is a natural disturbance in the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) but its effects on the landscape are capable of altering its pattern of severity and frequency. Because of that, some areas of the Biome can be in dangerous in the National Park of Sempre Vivas, in Minas Gerais State. Within this context, we spatially analyzed fires in areas of Cerrado during the years 2003 and 2017 according to severity, frequency and the influence of the spatial configuration of the area. We used pre- and post-fire Landsat satellite images to calculate the dNBR index to analyze fire severity per year and used fire metrics to analyze the relationship between fire severity and the spatial configuration of the landscape. Fire-scar severity was considered low, probably due to the density and structure of the typical Cerrado vegetation and the change in annual precipitation. Thus, fires in the Cerrado can be intense and spread quickly if no proper control is implemented.

Meta-analysis reveals that the effects of precipitation change on soil and litter fauna in forests depend on body size.

Anthropogenic climate change is altering precipitation regimes at a global scale. While precipitation changes have been linked to changes in the abundance and diversity of soil and litter invertebrate fauna in forests, general trends have remained elusive due to mixed results from primary studies. We used a meta-analysis based on 430 comparisons from 38 primary studies to address associated knowledge gaps, (i) quantifying impacts of precipitation change on forest soil and litter fauna abundance and diversity, (ii) exploring reasons for variation in impacts and (iii) examining biases affecting the realism and accuracy of experimental studies. Precipitation reductions led to a decrease of 39% in soil and litter fauna abundance, with a 35% increase in abundance under precipitation increases, while diversity impacts were smaller. A statistical model containing an interaction between body size and the magnitude of precipitation change showed that mesofauna (e.g. mites, collembola) responded most to changes in precipitation. Changes in taxonomic richness were related solely to the magnitude of precipitation change. Our results suggest that body size is related to the ability of a taxon to survive under drought conditions, or to benefit from high precipitation. We also found that most experiments manipulated precipitation in a way that aligns better with predicted extreme climatic events than with predicted average annual changes in precipitation and that the experimental plots used in experiments were likely too small to accurately capture changes for mobile taxa. The relationship between body size and response to precipitation found here has far-reaching implications for our ability to predict future responses of soil biodiversity to climate change and will help to produce more realistic mechanistic soil models which aim to simulate the responses of soils to global change.

Climate change in the Biebrza Basin—Projections and ecohydrological implications

Over the last decades observed climate change in Poland had a significant impact on the condition and functioning of the environment. Thus, it is crucial to analyze further future changes to be able to cope with the potential effects of changing climate conditions. In this study, we aimed to assess the impact of projected climate change on meteorological and hydrological conditions in the Biebrza Basin. We analyzed seasonal and annual changes in air temperature, precipitation, streamflow and flood characteristics using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We examined projected changes for two future time horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using an ensemble of nine EUROCORDEX model scenarios. Climate change projections indicated an increase in precipitation by up to +17 % (+117 mm) and air temperature by up to 3.8 °C by the end of the 21st century. In the analyzed flow gauges a considerable increase in low and mean flows is projected in the future. High flows are projected to slightly decrease for Sztabin, remain at a similar level for Dębowo and slightly increase for Osowiec and Burzyn. Flood area and volume will slightly increase in future horizons. The greatest increase in flood duration (by up to 16 days) is projected for RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. It seems, that the expected hydrological conditions, both in the short and long term, will become more stable and improve the conditions for the development of wetlands.

Stable isotope evidence for long-term stability of large-scale hydroclimate in the Neogene North American Great Plains

Abstract. The Great Plains of North America host a stark climatic gradient, separating the humid and well-watered eastern US from the semi-arid and arid western US, and this gradient shapes the region's water availability, its ecosystems, and its economies. This climatic boundary is largely set by the influence of two competing atmospheric circulation systems that meet over the Great Plains – the wintertime westerlies bring dominantly dry air that gives way to moist, southerly air transported by the Great Plains low-level jet in the warmer months. Climate model simulations suggest that, as CO2 rises, this low-level jet will strengthen, leading to greater precipitation in the spring but less in the summer and, thus, no change in mean annual precipitation. Combined with rising temperatures that will increase potential evapotranspiration, semi-arid conditions will shift eastward, with potentially large consequences for the ecosystems and inhabitants of the Great Plains. We examine how hydroclimate in the Great Plains varied in the past in response to warmer global climate by studying the paleoclimate record within the Ogallala Formation, which underlies nearly the entire Great Plains and provides a spatially resolved record of hydroclimate during the globally warmer late Miocene. We use the stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) as preserved in authigenic carbonates hosted within the abundant paleosol and fluvial successions that comprise the Ogallala Formation as a record of past hydroclimate. Today, and coincident with the modern aridity gradient, there is a sharp meteoric water δ18O gradient with high (−6 ‰ to 0 ‰) δ18O in the southern Great Plains and low (−12 ‰ to −18 ‰) δ18O in the northern plains. We find that the spatial pattern of reconstructed late Miocene precipitation δ18O is indistinguishable from the spatial pattern of modern meteoric water δ18O. We use a recently developed vapor transport model to demonstrate that this δ18O spatial pattern requires air mass mixing over the Great Plains between dry westerly and moist southerly air masses in the late Miocene – consistent with today. Our results suggest that the spatial extents of these two atmospheric circulation systems have been largely unchanged since the late Miocene and any strengthening of the Great Plains low-level jet in response to warming has been isotopically masked by proportional increases in westerly moisture delivery. Our results hold implications for the sensitivity of Great Plains climate to changes in global temperature and CO2 and also for our understanding of the processes that drove Ogallala Formation deposition in the late Miocene.

A machine learning approach to mapping suitable areas for forest vegetation in the eThekwini municipality

Driven by climate change, global forests are undergoing significant transformations in growth, ecology, and distribution, necessitating informed restoration and conservation strategies, particularly in the eThekwini Municipality where anthropogenic activities exacerbate these trends. Modelling current forest suitability (2023) utilized bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim dataset, alongside elevation and slope from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) dataset, with remote sensing data acquired from Landsat 9 and Sentinel 2A. Future forest suitability (2021–2040) was projected also using bioclimatic variables from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four WorldClim Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Employing Random Forests (RF), Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), data processing was carried out using Google Earth Engine (GEE), QGIS and Python, with model accuracy primarily assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). LightGBM demonstrated superior performance, achieving AUCs of 96.88% and 93.75% for current and future suitability mapping, respectively, with annual precipitation and vegetation changes identified as crucial variables. Currently, 30% of the municipality's land is deemed suitable, primarily concentrated in the central region. Future projections highlight the mountainous north-western region as most suitable, notably under the SSP370 scenario with a projected suitable area of 63%. Strategic recommendations include prioritizing reforestation efforts, engaging private landowners, exploring urban reforestation opportunities, and implementing continuous monitoring for adaptive management, thereby enhancing carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem resilience. This study provides valuable insights for informed decision-making in forest restoration and conservation, despite inherent uncertainties.

Influence of seasonal hydrological regimes on benthic macroinvertebrates in two the Brazilian biodiversity hotspots

Global warming has changed climate patterns worldwide causing an increase of extreme weather conditions that have altered annual seasonal hydrological regimes. These extreme climate-driven shifts modify habitat availability and can influence freshwater communities in disruptive ways. Our study investigates how changes in annual seasonal hydrological regimes affect the community structure and the Functional Feeding Groups (FFG) of benthic macroinvertebrates in two Brazilian biodiversity hotspots, the Brazilian Tropical Savannas (a.k.a., Cerrado) and Atlantic Forest biomes. We investigate whether annual variation in precipitation between biomes influence composition, richness, and abundance of benthic macroinvertebrates and their proportions of FFG. We demonstrate that differences in annual precipitation rates affect the composition and abundance, but not richness of benthic macroinvertebrates. Changes in community structure are related to changes in annual precipitation, which modify stream variables. Our findings suggest that annual seasonal changes in hydrological precipitation modify benthic macroinvertebrate communities, especially in Cerrado, where dry seasons are more pronounced. Therefore, annual changes in precipitation rates may disrupt the benthic macroinvertebrate communities in tropical savannas, potentially leading to biodiversity loss.

Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Dynamics in the South Marmara Region of Turkey

Understanding the dynamics of precipitation patterns is crucial for effective water management strategies, especially in regions vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the projected changes in annual and seasonal precipitation across the South Marmara Region of Turkey by comparing the averages of the reference period (1971-2000) with those of the future period (2061-2090). Employing multiple climate models (GFDL, HADGEM, and MPI) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the analysis includes Mann-Kendall trend tests and Sen's slope method to determine trends in precipitation patterns. Key findings reveal significant variability in precipitation projections among different models and scenarios, with implications for water resource management, agriculture, and ecosystem resilience in provinces such as Çanakkale, Balıkesir, Bursa, Bilecik, and Yalova. According to the annual rainfall change rates relative to the reference period, Balıkesir province stands out as the most resilient province against climate change with average rates of 8.81% and 7.09% under the HADGEM and MPI model simulations, respectively. Regarding seasonal variations, Bilecik province is expected to experience a significant decrease in rainfall, reaching up to -53.78% under the MPI RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of within-period changes in annual rainfall values, the strongest declining trend was identified with Z=-2.03 in Bilecik province under the MPI RCP8.5 scenario conditions by the Mann-Kendall test. On the other hand, for seasonal variations, Bursa province demonstrates the most robust decreasing trend under the GFDL RCP4.5 conditions (Z=-2.89). The study emphasizes the importance of considering spatially varying precipitation patterns and potential shifts in atmospheric circulation for sustainable water resource management amidst climate variability and change in the South Marmara region. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in developing adaptive strategies to address the challenges posed by future climate scenarios.

Impact of permafrost degradation on the extreme increase of dissolved iron concentration in the Amur river during 1995–1997

Primary production in the Sea of Okhotsk is largely supported by dissolved iron (dFe) transported by the Amur river, indicating the importance of dFe discharge from terrestrial environments. However, little is known about the mechanisms of dFe discharge into the Amur river, especially in terms of long-term change in dFe concentration. In the Amur river, extreme increase in dFe concentration was observed between 1995 and 1997, the cause of which remains unclear. As a cause of this iron anomaly, we considered the impact of permafrost degradation. To link the permafrost degradation to long-term variation in dFe concentration, we examined the changes in annual air temperature (Ta), accumulated temperature (AT), and net precipitation for three regions (northeast, south, and northwest) of the basin between 1960 and 2006. Ta and AT were relatively high in one out of every few years, and were especially high during 1988–1990 continuously. Net precipitation in late summer (July to September) has increased since 1977 and has stayed positive until 2006 throughout the basin. Most importantly, we found significant correlations between Ta and late summer dFe concentration with a 7-year lag (r = 0.54–0.69, p < 0.01), which indicate a close relationship between high Ta in year Y and increased late summer dFe concentration in year Y + 7. This correlation was the strongest in northeastern Amur basin where permafrost coverage is the highest. Similar 7-year lag correlation was also found between AT in the northeastern basin and late summer dFe concentration (r = 0.51, p < 0.01). Based on our findings, we propose the following hypothesis as a cause of iron anomaly. (1) Increased net precipitation since 1977 has increased soil moisture, which created suitable conditions for microbial dFe generation; (2) permafrost degradation during the warm years of 1988–1990 promoted iron bioavailability and led to the intensive dFe generation in the deeper part of the active layer; and (3) dFe took approximately 7 years to reach the rivers and extremely increased dFe concentration during 1995–1997. This is the first study to suggest the time-lagged impact of permafrost degradation on iron biogeochemistry in the Amur river basin.

Nitrogen rather than water availability limits aboveground primary productivity in an arid ecosystem: Substantial differences between grasses and shrubs

AbstractChanges in water and nitrogen availability can affect the structure and function of arid ecosystems. How these resources affect aboveground primary productivity (ANPP) remains far from clear. We examined the N and water limitation of ANPP from the species to the community level and the response of ANPP to annual precipitation in a Patagonian steppe. We conducted a 7‐year field experiment with water addition (+W), nitrogen addition (+N) and +NW. Destructive methods for grasses and allometric relationships for shrubs were used to assess ANPP and vegetation indices (NDVI and MSAVI2) to estimate community ANPP. An increase in ANPP of one grass species (Papposstipa humilis) and a decrease of the grass Poa ligularis under +N were observed. Some shrub species exhibited mortality under nitrogen addition. Nitrogen exerted a positive effect on grass ANPP and amplified the sensitivity of grass ANPP to annual precipitation. However, +N had not effects on the shrub ANPP and shrub ANPP‐precipitation relationship. Water addition by itself had no effect on ANPP for either shrubs or grasses. However, shrubs responded positively to an unusually wet year regardless of treatment and were also more sensitive to changes in annual precipitation than grasses. Total ANPP increased significantly in +N relative to the C and +W but without changes in the sensitivity to annual precipitation. The results suggest that the responses of grasses and shrubs to water inputs are driven by soil moisture redistribution and rooting depth and that grass and community ANPP are more limited by N than by water.

Hydrometeorological variation in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin (1960–2019)

The hydrological and meteorological elements of the Yellow River Basin have undergone fluctuations in response to both climate change and human activities. Understanding its evolutionary trends is essential for the development of effective water conservation measures. Employing linear fitting, Mann–Kendall, and wavelet analysis techniques, this study scrutinizes the trends and periodicity in precipitation, air temperature, and runoff within the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2019. The findings elucidate that temperatures in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River have been progressively increasing on an annual basis, while precipitation exhibits periodic fluctuations, and annual runoff demonstrates a declining trajectory. Sudden changes in runoff and temperature transpired in the years 1985 and 1997, respectively, whereas sudden changes in annual precipitation occurred in 1961 and 2012. On an annual scale, the influence of temperature and precipitation on runoff displays no evident prominent cycle. Notably, a significant negative correlation exists between temperature and runoff, with the noteworthy impact of temperature on runoff primarily manifesting in the 6-year sub-cycle spanning 1986 to 1992, as well as the 9-year sub-cycle encompassing 1963 to 1972. Conversely, precipitation and runoff exhibit a significant positive correlation. The substantial effect of precipitation on runoff is mainly concentrated within the 9-year sub-cycle from 1963 to 1972 and the 8-year sub-cycle from 1972 to 1980. Precipitation emerges as the primary driving force behind watershed runoff. In essence, the study's outcomes unveil the implications of climate change on runoff within the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, thereby offering pertinent insights for effective water resource management strategies in the face of evolving climatic conditions.

Spatiotemporal Variability in Rainfall Erosivity and Its Teleconnection with Atmospheric Circulation Indices in China

Rainfall erosivity (RE) is a critical factor influencing soil erosion, and soil erosion is closely related to land ecosystem health and long-term sustainable utilization. To ensure regional stable food supply and ecological balance, it is crucial to study the spatiotemporal distribution and influencing factors of RE. This study focuses on China and its three natural regions using daily precipitation data from 611 stations from 1960 to 2020. The study analyses the spatiotemporal changes in RE. Rainfall events were classified as moderate, large, and heavy based on rainfall intensity. The RE contribution from different rainfall levels to the total RE was analyzed, and the key climatic drivers closely linked to RE were identified using random forest. The results demonstrate that (1) on a national scale, RE shows a significant increasing trend, marked by an 81.67 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1/decade. In the subregions, the Eastern Monsoon Region (EMR) and Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Region (QTR) show a significant increasing trend, with a greater change rate in EMR of 108.54 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1/decade, and the Northwest Arid Region (NAR) shows a nonsignificant upwards trend. (2) The average RE increases northwest–southeast nationwide, ranging from 60.15 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1 to 31,418.52 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1. The RE contribution generated by different rainfall levels to the total RE exhibits spatial variations. The dominant types show that EMR is influenced by heavy RE, NAR is dominated by large RE, and QTR is affected by moderate RE. (3) The REs are associated with teleconnection indices, but the impact of these indices varies in different regions. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool has the greatest impact on the EMR, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are the factors influencing RE in NAR and QTR, respectively. (4) On a national scale, for every 1 mm increase in annual total rainfall, the RE increased by 8.54 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1, a sensitivity of 8.54 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1/mm. For the three subregions, there are differences in the sensitivity of RE to changes in annual precipitation. The highest sensitivity is found in EMR, at 8.71 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1/mm, which is greater than the sensitivity indices in NAR (6.19 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1/mm) and QTR (3.60 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1/mm). This study can provide theoretical references for future regional soil erosion prediction and sustainable agricultural development in China.

Keeping Water in Climate-Changed Headwaters Longer

Climate-change projections for California confidently describe a future with warmer temperatures, more evaporative demand, less snow, more rain, earlier and flashier runoff and streamflow, and drier summer conditions. The future of annual precipitation is much less certain, but a fairly unanimous projection of drier, more drought-prone conditions punctuated by occasional stronger-than-historical storms is almost as common among projections as is the warming itself. Rather than focusing on the less certain annual precipitation changes, we recommend more focus on keeping water in the headwaters longer. Doing so will involve reducing winter flood flows from headwater catchments, reducing the summer aridification (and wildfire risks) there, salvaging some groundwater recharge that would likely otherwise be lost, and overall, perpetuating headwater (and downstream) hydrologies under more historical and natural conditions. Among the available near-term adaptation strategies for keeping water in the headwaters longer, we discuss several examples here: (1) an increased emphasis on soils and percolation management as a priority and co-benefit in forest-health restoration activities; (2) beaver-population restoration or proliferation of beaver-inspired infrastructures; and (3) upstream-focused, forecast-informed reservoir-operation (FIRO) strategies.

Reconstruction of temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwestern China since the last deglaciation

Monsoon precipitation and temperature are the crucial components of the Indian monsoon climate, yet their spatial-temporal relationship remains unclear. In this study, we reconstruct the changes in monsoon precipitation and mean annual temperature simultaneously over the past 16,000 years using multiple proxies, including isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (isoGDGTs) and n-alkanes, from an alpine lake in southwestern China. On the one hand, the reconstructed monsoon precipitation shows a long-term increasing trend during the last deglaciation and a gradual decrease during the Holocene, with the highest-humidity period occurring in the early Holocene. Our result displays good consistency with the changes in regional mean annual precipitation, summer precipitation, and monsoon intensity during the last deglaciation and the Holocene. On the other hand, the reconstructed mean annual temperature inferred from the n-alkane proxy shows a long-term warm trend since the last deglaciation. Our result is consistent with the regional reconstruction of both mean annual and summer temperatures during the last deglaciation, while evident seasonal differences were observed for Holocene records with a cooling trend of summer temperature and a warm trend of mean annual temperature. Comprehensive comparison reveals that monsoon precipitation in the Indian monsoon region is mainly related to changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and land-sea thermal contrast controlled by boreal summer insolation. In addition, the increase in temperature during deglaciation is primarily attributed to the escalation of greenhouse gases (GHGs), while the divergent trend of seasonal temperature during the Holocene is mainly attributed to the changes in local seasonal insolation. Our research emphasizes that monsoon precipitation is a summer signature in the Indian monsoon region, which is consistent with the changes in summer temperature, while contrasting with the changes in mean annual temperature. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the seasonal difference in temperature changes when investigating the hydrothermal combination in Indian monsoon regions.

Structure and function of microbiomes in the rhizosphere and endosphere response to temperature and precipitation variation in Inner Mongolia steppes.

Owing to challenges in the study of complex rhizosphere and endophytic microbial communities, the composition and function of such microbial communities in steppe ecosystems remain elusive. Here, we studied the microbial communities of the rhizosphere and endophytic microbes of the dominant plant species across the Inner Mongolian steppes using metagenomic sequencing and investigated their relationships with changes in mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP). Metagenomic sequencing based on Illumina high-throughput sequencing, using the paired end method to construct a small fragment library for sequencing. Adaptation of root systems to the environment affected the composition and function of rhizosphere and endophytic microbial communities. However, these communities exhibited distinct community assembly and environmental adaptation patterns. Both rhizosphere and endophytic microbial communities can be divided into two unrelated systems based on their ecological niches. The composition and function of the rhizosphere microbial communities were mainly influenced by MAT, while those of the endophytic microbial communities were mainly influenced by MAP. MAT affected the growth, reproduction, and lipid decomposition of rhizosphere microorganisms, whereas MAP affected reverse transcription and cell wall/membrane/envelope biogenic functions of endophytic microorganisms. Our findings reveal the composition and function of the rhizosphere and endophytic microbial communities in response to changes in MAP and MAT, which has important implications for future biogeography and climate change research.

Responses of water use efficiency of Chinese fir to mixed planting and meteorological factors

Chinese fir in China are generally inefficient plantations with single species, unreasonable stand density, and low productivity. The introduction of broadleaved species is usually adopted as a strategy to improve Chinese fir plantations. Taking the pure forests and mixed forests of the Guanshan Forest Farm in Jiangxi Province as example, we quantified the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of trees based on the stable isotope carbon method, as well as its response to meteorological factors, and investigated the improvement of stand quality after introducing Phoebe zhennan into Chinese fir plantation. The results showed that the basal area increment was 0.23 cm2 in pure forest, being higher than that of 0.19 cm2 in mixed forest. The δ13C and iWUE of pure forest were -27.4‰ and 52.9%, respectively, being lower than those of -26.7‰ and 62.8% in the mixed forest. Tree δ13C in pure forest was more sensitive to changes in mean annual precipitation and mean annual relative humidity, while that in mixed forest was not significantly correlated with meteorological factors. Pure forest iWUE was positively correlated with mean annual temperature, mean annual atmospheric CO2 concentration, and mean annual maximum temperature, and negatively correlated with mean annual precipitation and mean annual relative humidity, while mixed forest iWUE was positively correlated with mean annual atmospheric CO2 concentration only. Our results indicated that pure forests was more sensitive to climate than mixed forests.

CHESS-SCAPE: high-resolution future projections of multiple climate scenarios for the United Kingdom derived from downscaled United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 regional climate model output

Abstract. In order to effectively model the potential impacts of future climate change, there is a requirement for climate data inputs which (a) are of high spatial and temporal resolution, (b) explore a range of future climate change scenarios, (c) are consistent with historical observations in the historical period, and (d) provide an exploration of climate model uncertainty. This paper presents a suite of climate projections for the United Kingdom that conform to these requirements: CHESS-SCAPE. CHESS-SCAPE is a 1 km resolution dataset containing 11 near-surface meteorological variables that can be used to as input to many different impact models. The variables are available at several time resolutions, from daily to decadal means, for the years 1980–2080. It was derived from the state-of-the art regional climate projections in the United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) regional climate model (RCM) 12 km ensemble, downscaled to 1 km using a combination of physical and empirical methods to account for local topographic effects. CHESS-SCAPE has four ensemble members, which were chosen to span the range of temperature and precipitation change in the UKCP18 ensemble, representing the ensemble climate model uncertainty. CHESS-SCAPE consists of projections for four emissions scenarios, given by the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, which were derived from the UKCP18 RCM RCP8.5 scenarios using time shifting and pattern scaling. These correspond to UK annual warming projections of between 0.9–1.9 K for RCP2.6 up to 2.8–4.3 K for RCP8.5 between 1980–2000 and 2060–2080. Little change in annual precipitation is projected, but larger changes in seasonal precipitation are seen with some scenarios projecting large increases in precipitation in the winter (up to 22 %) and large decreases in the summer (up to −39 %). All four RCP scenarios and ensemble members are also provided with bias correction, using the CHESS-met historical gridded dataset as a baseline. With high spatial and temporal resolution, an extensive range of warming scenarios and multiple ensemble members, CHESS-SCAPE provides a comprehensive data resource for modellers of climate change impacts in the UK. The CHESS-SCAPE data are available for download from the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis: https://doi.org/10.5285/8194b416cbee482b89e0dfbe17c5786c (Robinson et al., 2022).

Characteristics of boundary layer height and its influencing factors in global monsoon regions

Monsoon precipitation changes has led to substantial changes in the spatial pattern of land surface energy in most monsoon regions of the world, which subsequently affect the structure and development of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over land. Based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979–2018), the present study analyzes the long-term variability characteristics of Boundary layer height (BLH) and its influencing factors in the global land monsoon region. The results show that the long-term annual mean BLH averaged over all the monsoon regions across the globe is approximately 653.2 m, but there exist great differences between various regions. The highest BLH occurs in the Australian (AUS) region, followed by that in South Africa (SAF), North Africa (NAF), North America (NAM) and South America (SAM) regions, and the lowest BLH occurs in the Asian (ASN) monsoon region. The differences in BLH between various regions reflect significant regional differences in surface energy distribution. A larger sensible heat flux SHF usually corresponds to a higher BLH, while NAM with the largest latent heat flux LHF corresponds to not the lowest BLH, which is related to its smaller cloud radiation cooling. In the past 40 years, the spatial variation of BLH in ASN region is the most special among all monsoon regions, which is mainly manifested in the increasing trend in the east (east of 100°E) and the decreasing trend in the west (west of 100°E), partly due to the distribution of more precipitation in the east and less precipitation in the west in recent decades. The differences in BLH distribution in different monsoonal regions are mainly caused by SHF. Wind shearSand vertical sensible heat advectionHmv, as the main driving sources of ABL development, play a non-negligible role in the variances of BLH structure in different monsoon areas, although their contributions are much smaller than that of SHF.The role of S in promoting or inhibiting the development of ABL is not only related to S size, but also closely related to the atmospheric turbulence environment. Additionally, each monsoon region's Hmv influence on BLH is the most complex, and changes in near-surface temperature and annual precipitation can only partially explain the observed occurrences. The complicated process must also take into account the significance of local vertical motion brought on by weather variations and surface irregularities in various monsoon regions.

Assessing the hillslope-channel contributions to the catchment sediment balance under climate change

To get a full understanding of the impacts of global change on the catchment-scale sediment balance, models are needed that combine hillslope soil erosion processes with channel morphodynamics. Here we present a modification to the SPHY-MMF model that includes a novel channel morphodynamics module, which determines erosion and deposition in rills and channels. We applied the model to a Mediterranean study area in southeast Spain, in which we show that channel erosion contributes substantially (35%–40%) to the total sediment yield, highlighting the importance of accounting for channel erosion in catchment-scale sediment budget estimations. The climate change scenarios show that the different erosional processes (i.e. sheet, rill, channel) are projected to decrease or increase, depending on the projected change in annual and extreme precipitation. From this we conclude that interactions between different erosional and depositional processes should be considered when studying the impact of global change on the catchment-scale sediment balance.

Trends, forecasting and adaptation strategies of climate change in the middle and west regions of Iraq

Climate change has placed considerable pressure on the residential environment, agricultural, and water supplies in different areas of the world, especially arid places such as Iraq. Iraq is one of the five most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, where it has been encountering extremes heat waves during the most recent decades resulted in drought, desertification, and rivers dried up, which led to thousands of hectares to turn dry and yellow. This study aims to investigate the trends of climate change in the middle and western regions of Iraq and future expectations. The daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation are downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed for three future periods: the near future (2021–2040), medium future (2051–2070), and far future (2081–2100), based on two scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for four selected meteorological stations representing the study area. The outcomes of the calibration and validation of the model supported its skill and reliability to downscale precipitation and temperature time series for statistical indices (R2, RMSE and MBE) ranging between (0.894–0.998), (0.1270–1.9274) and (− 0.6158 to 0.0008), respectively. The results showed that the average minimum and maximum annual temperatures will increase at all selected stations across the three future periods by between 0.94 and 4.98 °C by the end of the twenty-first century. Annual changes in precipitation tend generally towards increase for the study area by average (6.09–14.31%) for RCP4.5 and (11.25–20.97%) for RCP8.5 Compared to the historical data (1990–2020). These findings can contribute to become more acquainted with the effects of climate change on the environment and encourage managers and planners to come up with plans for mitigating and adapting to these effects. They can also serve as a guide for future management of water and agricultural resources in the study region.