Annual Population Research Articles

Analysis on Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of PM2.5 in Heilongjiang Province in the Past 20 years

PM2.5 is an important indicator for measuring the degree of air pollution. Studying the space-time variation and the driving factors of spatial heterogeneity is important for controlling air pollution and improving regional air quality. Based on PM2.5 remote sensing data from 2000 to 2021, the Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall significant inspection, and spatial auto correlation were used to analyze the characteristics of space-time changes in PM2.5 concentration, and geographical detectors were combined with a multi-scale geographical weighted regression model to explore the key driver factor and its influence and direction of the impact and role of PM2.5 spatial differences. The results showed that： ① The average PM2.5 value of Heilongjiang Province was between 22.01 and 41 μg·m-3 from 2000 to 2021. From 2008 to 2015, the average PM2.5 value was higher than the secondary concentration limit （35 μg·m-3） of the "Environmental Air Quality Standard." The turning point of the PM2.5 concentration change that occurred in 2013 generally showed the trend of change and then a downward trend. Winter was the high incidence season for PM2.5 pollution. The PM2.5 concentration space was a distributed pattern in the south and north and the high-value zone was mainly based on Harbin, Daqing City, and the surrounding area. The low-value areas were distributed in the northern regions such as the Great Khingan Mountains Region and Heihe City. ② Factor detection results indicated that the average annual temperature was the most important driving factor that affected PM2.5 spatial differences. The remaining key driver factors were in turn： high-end, population density, average annual wind speed, land use, night lights, annual years precipitation, slope, annual relative humidity, and NDVI. Interactive detection showed that the interpretation of PM2.5 points after interaction was higher than a single factor after interaction, indicating that affecting PM2.5 spatial difference was the result of the common effect of each driver factor. The effect of natural factors was more obvious than that of social and economic factors. ③ The effect of different influence factors on PM2.5 had a significant spatial difference. The average annual temperature, average annual relative humidity, population density, and night lighting played a promotion effect on PM2.5 pollution and NDVI and land use played an inhibitory effect on PM2.5 pollution. PM2.5 was significantly different from the action role of various influencing factors and the average annual temperature, annual average wind speed, and NDVI impact scale were the smallest, with a variable bandwidth of 43； population density and land use impact scale were the largest, with a variable bandwidth of 140.

An object-oriented model of the invasion and eradication of Poa annua L. on King George Island, Antarctica

We implemented a custom object-oriented model to predict the spread of annual bluegrass population at Point Thomas Oasis and to evaluate potential eradication outcome at different eradication success rates. We modeled unobstructed population growth without eradication, sole elimination of plants and removal of plants together with soil within 10cm around each specimen. Both eradication scenarios considered removal efficiency of 50 – 100%. The population with no elimination campaign applied, was still in the exponential phase of growth after 45 simulated years and almost fulfilled the study area. The removal efficiency of 50% sufficed to control the species, maintaining the population number at a stable and low level. Once the removal action ceased, the population number increased dramatically. 100% elimination efficiency for 20 years did not guarantee eradication, as leaving even five or less seeds in the soil could initiate population reestablishment. Soil removal within 10cm around each plant speeded up the elimination. The predicted duration of eradication process to reach 30 or less seeds in the soil, was around 20 years. The removal of annual bluegrass is obstructed by the soil seed bank. The most important parameter driving eradication success is eradication efficiency. Low removal efficiency simulation indicates that poor management, even for a few years, may be amended if the eradication efficiency increases. Our model is transferable for other potential invasive species at Point Thomas Oasis by changing dispersal and germination parameters. Its transferability for other locations would require changing the modeled space.

Life history, population dynamics and impacts of cat predation on an endemic gadfly petrel in Cabo Verde

Insular fauna often suffers significant predation from invasive mammals, yet robust evidence of their impact from rigorous demographic analysis remains scarce. We aimed to understand the life history and population dynamics of the elusive Cape Verde petrel Pterodroma feae, an endemic seabird of the Cabo Verde archipelago, which is severely predated by cats. We analysed capture-mark-recapture data from birds mist-netted in a courtship area in 2007-2021 and monitored their nests between 2012 and 2021 on Fogo Island. Across all islands where this species breeds, we recorded cat predation rates and made additional captures of petrels in courtship areas. Demographic analysis revealed an 8.8% annual population decline of Cape Verde petrels, primarily driven by a 14.7% surplus mortality among breeders from threats in breeding areas, likely tied to the annual cat predation rate of at least 4% observed in monitored nests. Immature males exhibited lower survival rates, likely due to their increased vulnerability while seeking initial nest sites. The limited connectivity detected among and within islands, along with strong nest-site and mate fidelity rates, highlight the urgency of preventing local extinctions, which would be challenging to reverse. This study emphasizes the unsustainability of cat predation rates and the insufficiency of enhancing breeding success to counter the population decline, and it provides compelling evidence of a concerning decline of the Cape Verde petrel, primarily attributable to cat predation. Moreover, it emphasizes the significance of long-term demographic studies to understand the impact of invasive species on endangered populations.

Global, regional, and national mortality burden attributable to air pollution from landscape fires: a health impact assessment study

Landscape fire-sourced (LFS) air pollution is an increasing public health concern in the context of climate change. However, little is known about the attributable global, regional, and national mortality burden related to LFS air pollution. We calculated country-specific population-weighted average daily and annual LFS fine particulate matter (PM2·5) and surface ozone (O3) during 2000-19 from a validated dataset. We obtained the relative risks (RRs) for both short-term and long-term impact of LFS PM2·5 and O3 on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The short-term RRs were pooled from community-specific standard time-series regressions in 2267 communities across 59 countries or territories. The long-term RRs were obtained from published meta-analyses of cohort studies on all-source PM2·5 and O3. Annual mortality, population, and socio-demographic data for each country or territory were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. These data were used to estimate country-specific annual deaths attributable to LFS air pollution using standard algorithms. Globally, 1·53 million all-cause deaths per year (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI] 1·24-1·82) were attributable to LFS air pollution during 2000-19, including 0·45 million (0·32-0·57) cardiovascular deaths and 0·22 million respiratory deaths (0·08-0·35). LFS PM2·5 and O3 contributed to 77·6% and 22·4% of the total attributable deaths, respectively. Over 90% of all attributable deaths were in low-income and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (606 769 million deaths per year), southeast Asia (206 817 million deaths), south Asia (170 762 million deaths), and east Asia (147 291 million deaths). The global cardiovascular attributable deaths saw an average 1·67% increase per year (ptrend <0·001), although the trends for all-cause and respiratory attributable deaths were not statistically significant. The five countries with the largest all-cause attributable deaths were China, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Indonesia, and Nigeria, although the order changed in the second decade. The leading countries with the greatest attributable mortality rates (AMRs) were all in sub-Saharan Africa, despite decreasing trends from 2000 to 2019. North and central America, and countries surrounding the Mediterranean, showed increasing trends of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory AMRs. Increasing cardiovascular AMR was also observed in southeast Asia, south Asia, and east Asia. In 2019, the AMRs in low-income countries remained four times those in high-income countries, though this had reduced from nine times in 2000. AMRs negatively correlated with a country-specific socio-demographic index (Spearman correlation coefficients r around -0·60). LFS air pollution induced a substantial global mortality burden, with notable geographical and socioeconomic disparities. Urgent actions are required to address such substantial health impact and the associated environmental injustice in a warming climate. Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Spatio-temporal analysis of potential factors explaining fluctuations in population size of Spisula subtruncata in the Dutch North Sea

Bivalves play a key role in coastal ecosystems by supporting food web, modifying habitats, and their economic value for fisheries. Many bivalve species are under pressure, showing large variations in population sizes and distributions, with climate change and human activities considered as important drivers. The Dutch North Sea hosts high densities of bivalve species, dominated by the cut trough shell Spisula subtruncata, with strong interannual variations and a patchy distribution. To explore the causes of this variation, data of an extensive long-term spatial benthic monitoring program (1995-2021) was analysed using a Bayesian spatio-temporal hurdle model. We considered indicators related to human activities, biological processes, climate change and habitat preference as explanatory variables for the observed long-term temporal and spatial variations. Results revealed that medium sediment grain size was key determinant of S. subtruncata occurrence and density. Increasing sea water temperatures during winter and the post-settlement phase positively affected annual population densities, while strong north-westerly winds led to lower densities. These climate change related factors had an overall positive effect on this species in the region. Human activities like shellfish dredging and sand nourishment had no measurable impact. However, shrimp and flatfish beam trawling overlapped with S. subtruncata occurrence and were negatively related to densities, suggesting higher beam trawling intensity in these areas may negatively impacts densities. Overall, the effects were stronger at medium to finer sediments where the highest densities occurred, indicating a strong habitat-dependent effect. Despite identifying multiple drivers, unexplained annual variation suggests other not included factors like predation pressure, also play a role. More detailed studies on the combined effects of climate change-driven environmental stressors and human activities are needed to fully understand the population dynamics. This knowledge is essential for developing more adequate fisheries and coastal management strategies to sustain biodiversity.

Variability and correlations among vital rates and their influence on population growth in mule and black‐tailed deer

AbstractTo reverse range‐wide population declines, managers of black‐tailed and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) require information on the vital rates and life stages most influential to population growth to target effective management actions. We extracted black‐tailed and mule deer vital rates from a range‐wide literature review and used hierarchical models to summarize vital rates, their variability, and how they correlate with one another. We then used matrix models and life‐stage simulation analysis to determine the individual vital rates that contributed most to annual population growth rate (i.e., lambda). Annual adult female survival explained the greatest amount of variation (62%) in lambda. Annual juvenile survival explained 44% of the variation in lambda, whereas summer or winter juvenile survival by themselves were far less informative. Winter fawn:doe ratios, a metric often collected by management agencies, explained only 10% of the variation in lambda. Given an adult female survival of 0.84, our simulations estimated a lambda of 1.0 (95% credible interval = 0.88–1.14), indicating equal probability that a population would increase or decrease. Simulations further indicated that given adult survival rates &lt;70%, the population would always decline, but as survival increased lambda increased linearly. In contrast, estimates of lambda plateaued when annual juvenile survival reached approximately 0.5, indicating higher survival rates yielded diminishing returns to population stability. Using simulated values within the observed range of vital rate values across the species' geographical distribution, the mean lambda was 0.975 and in 61% of the simulations, lambda was &lt;1. After 20 years, we estimated that this distribution of lambda values would cause populations to decrease in 92% of instances with a mean decrease of 44%. Our results align with observed declines in mule deer populations throughout their range over recent decades and indicate that these trends will continue until management can improve survival of adult females.

THE EFFECT OF THE #30DAYSZEROWASTECHALLENGE CAMPAIGN MESSAGE ON AWARENESS AND BEHAVIOUR CHANGES OF @ZEROWASTE.ID_OFFICIAL FOLLOWERS

Environmental issues and the increase in piles of waste are influenced by annual population growth and lifestyle. Waste which is now continuing has become a big problem because it concerns personal health and the health of the earth. Dealing with the waste problem requires awareness and changes in minimalist behavior from the community to be wiser in using good or food so that the negative impacts can be minimized. Therefore, zero waste created a campaign to invite people to adopt habits that can reduce waste production with the aim of raising awareness, changing behavior and a healthier lifestyle with the hashtag #30dayszerowastechallenge. This research aims to determine whether there is an influence of messages from the #30dayszerowastechallenge campaign on awareness and changes in the behavior of zero waste followers. This research used a quantitative approach by distributing questionnaires to 400 respondents. The results of this research show an influence between the zerowaste campaign message on followers' awareness and there is also an influence between the campaign message and changes in followers' behavior @zerowaste.id_official.

Assessment of the Land Use/Land Cover Change in Koitobos River Catchment, Trans Nzoia County, Kenya

Globally, many countries are facing pressure to meet the livelihood needs of their fast-growing populations. This often leads to overuse of natural resources and consequent encroachment on fragile ecosystems such as river catchments and riparian areas mostly in developing countries. The objective of this study was to assess the implication of land use, land cover changes on surface water acreage in the Koitobos River catchment. Specifically, the study assessed the extent of land use/land cover changes with data being based on Landsat images pertaining to the period of study, 1992 - 2022. The research design used was correlations where the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Remote sensing techniques were used for the analysis with in-depth review of journals and research reports. A sample size of 384 respondents, according to Krejcie, &amp; Morgan as drawn from a target population of 203,821 residents within the study area. The survey data was analyzed using SPSS software version 25 and the Microsoft excel. The results were presented in form of frequencies, charts, maps, and tables. The findings of Land Use/Land Cover Change for the years 1995, 2009 and 2022, showed that Agricultural Land covered most of the study area with a cover of 26,853Ha, (58%), 32,438 Ha (70%), and 36,118Ha (77.68%) respectively. When transitioning through the years, thus shows drastic increased changes in area. This was followed by bare land area which covered an area of 14,915 Ha (32%), 8,093 Ha, (17%) and 6175 Ha (13.28%) for the years 1995, 2009, and 2022 respectively, of the entire catchment area which extremely decreased transitionally as the agricultural land increased due to the pressure exerted on the resource. The forest land showed a drastic decreasing trend through the transitional period from a cover of 2242 Ha (5%) to 1647 Ha (4%) and then 222 Ha (0.48%), due to an increasing demand for space by the growing population as depicted by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reports, which increasingly resulted to deforestation activities. The coverage for the agricultural land in the years 1995, 2009, and 2022 spread all over the area separated by patches of bare lands, water, and forests. The population of the study area in 2009, was 166,524 persons and 203,821 persons in 2019, within an area of 465.3 square Kilometers with residents’ density of 438.0 per square kilometer. The study found out that due to a 2% (percent) annual population change over the period 2009 to 2019, this resulted in an increased demand for food production and therefore concluded that environmental policies and laws needed to be adopted together with sustainable land management practices for healing and conserving biodiversity in Koitobos river catchment. The study therefore recommended the adoption of sustainable land use management practices that continually have the potential to heal the land and conserve biodiversity in Koitobos river catchment.

Long-term trends of occupational physical activity intensity in Japan

Objectives Although physical inactivity is a global concern, quantitative data on its long-term trends in physical activity (PA) are limited. This study aimed to estimate long-term trends in the intensity of occupational PA, constituting the largest portion of PA in Japan.Methods Data on the number of workers in Japan by occupational category were obtained from the Labour Force Survey. PA intensity (metabolic equivalents [METs]) was assigned to 329 occupations in the Japanese Standard Occupational Classification based on the methods and data of Tudor-Locke et al. (2011), and representative intensity values for 11 occupational categories were calculated. Based on intensity, occupational categories were reclassified into sedentary (≤1.5 METs), light (1.6-2.9 METs), and moderate (≥3 METs). Trends in the prevalence of workers in each category were analyzed, along with the annual mean occupation-related METs from 1953 to 2022. The mean occupation-related METs represented the weighted average of PA intensity, calculated based on the annual worker population for each occupational category. Results From 1953-2022, the prevalence of moderate-intensity occupations significantly declined, whereas sedentary and light-intensity occupations increased. The mean occupation-related METs decreased continuously for 70 years. During the 48-year period from 1962 to 2010, when there were no major changes in occupational classification methods, there was a decline of 0.25 METs, representing a 9.6% decrease, from 2.60 to 2.35 METs.Conclusion Over the past 70 years, occupations in Japan have transitioned to ones with lower PA intensity. Consequently, the average PA intensity across all occupations decreased by at least one-tenth. Since this study assumes a constant intensity for each occupation, the actual decline in occupational PA intensity may be even more significant because of societal automation.

Analyzing land use land cover dynamics under rapid urbanization using multi-temporal satellite imageries and geospatial technology for Jamshedpur city in India

Land use land cover (LULC) is considered as one of the most important driving factors behind the global environmental change. The rapid changes in the LULC patterns than ever before, mostly in developing countries, are frequently considered by widespread urban sprawling, land degradation, reduction of agricultural land, and alteration into other land use categories, resulting in enormous costs to the environment. Using a combined remote sensing and GIS technique, this study investigates the spatial urban expansion and its impacts on other LULC categories from 1987 to 2016 in Jamshedpur, India, based on the acquired multispectral satellite imageries, field observations, and demographic data. A visual-based image analysis technique was employed to develop a LULC map for the period of 1987, 2004, and 2016, and the precision of the maps was determined by overall accuracy and kappa statistic methods. The compact urbanization over the city was quantified using both landscape metrics and Shannon’s entropy method. The results of the change detection showed that the built-up area has experienced more than fifty percent growth during the 1987 – 2016 period. It is the main driving factor behind the reduction in the area of other land use categories: agricultural land (−87.12 %), vegetation (−67.51 %), riverbed (−46.25 %), and forest cover (−27.92 %). Although barren land and fallow land were the most dynamic land use categories, it increased by 281.84 % and 119.66 %, respectively. The change matrix between 1987 and 2016, indicated the maximum transformation (+455.23 %) of fallow land to settlement. Geographically, there is a continuous growth in the built-up area from the city center to the fringes as a result of suburbanization. The values of Shannon’s entropy during 1987, 2004, and 2016 were 1.11, 1.19, and 1.57, respectively. The demographic analysis shows that the annual population for the period of 1971–1981, 1981–1991, 1991–2001, and 2001–2011 has changed by + 3.89 %, +2.09 %, +2.91 %, and + 1.95 % per year, respectively. The population growth, aggregated settlements and land scarceness in Jamshedpur were found to be the key reasons behind the urban growth and development. This study emphasizes the critical need for sustainable urban development practices and robust land use strategies to alleviate the environmental impacts of rapid urban expansion. It will lay a valuable groundwork for future research focused on integrating land use management with urban growth frameworks to achieve balanced and resilient development in Jamshedpur.

The health impact of PM2.5 and O3 in Beijing modified by infiltration factors from 2014 to 2022.

PM2.5 and O3 are significant threats to the health of residents and modern residents spend more than 80% of their time indoors, so quantifying indoor exposure of residents has a positive influence on formulating policies and improving health indicators. Analysis of monitoring data shows a consistent decrease in the annual average concentration of outdoor PM2.5 in Beijing from 90.1 to 30.4μg/m3, and the equivalent human exposure concentration also declined from 55.2 to 18.6μg/m3 modified by infiltration factors from 2014 to 2022, while during the peak season, the average value of O3-8h concentration in Beijing has consistently remained between 159.3 and 225.3μg/m3; the equivalent human exposure concentration remained between 64.7 and 92.3μg/m3 modified by infiltration factors from 2014 to 2023. The equivalent exposure concentration is calculated by weighting the concentration of indoor and outdoor pollutants, the proportion of indoor and outdoor activity time of the population, and the permeability coefficient of outdoor pollutants into the room, so as to quantify the actual concentration of pollutants exposed to the human body in a certain time. Previous studies have primarily focused on the impact of annual changes in pollutant concentrations on health estimates, often neglecting indoor concentrations and behavior patterns. This limitation should be addressed. Therefore, this study utilized equivalent human exposure concentration and AirQ + , the authoritative software released by the World Health Organization (WHO), to evaluate quantitatively the impact of PM2.5 and O3 on the health of Beijing residents by combining pollutant concentration, annual population, and mortality of various diseases and other indicators to enhance the credibility of the study. The number of deaths related to PM2.5 has decreased from 28,182 people in 2014 to 10,250 people in 2022 (age ≥ 30). The number of premature deaths in 2022 was only 36.4 percent of that in 2014 and was decreasing by 1992 per year. The number of deaths related to O3 varies between 550 and 3358 people. Lowering PM2.5 and O3 concentrations can effectively reduce natural premature death as well as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases caused by air pollution. The government should persist in enhancing the regulation of PM2.5 and accord significance to the oversight of O3. Concurrently, there is a need to reinforce the cooperative regulation addressing both PM2.5 and O3.

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics, Source Apportionment, and Health Risks of Atmospheric Volatile Organic Compounds in China: A Comprehensive Review.

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are ubiquitous in the atmosphere, posing significant adverse impacts on air quality and human health. However, current research on atmospheric VOCs mainly focuses on specific regions or industries, without comprehensive national-level analysis. In this study, a total of 99 articles on atmospheric VOCs in China published from 2015 to 2024 were screened, and data on their concentrations, source apportionment, and health risks were extracted and summarized. The results revealed that the annual average concentrations of TVOCs and their groups in China generally increased and then decreased between 2011 and 2022, peaking in 2018-2019. A distinct seasonal pattern was observed, with the highest concentrations occurring in winter, followed by autumn, spring, and summer. TVOC emissions were highly concentrated in northern and eastern China, mainly contributed by alkanes and alkenes. Source apportionment of VOCs indicated that vehicle sources (32.9% ± 14.3%), industrial emissions (18.0% ± 12.8%), and other combustion sources (13.0% ± 13.0%) were the primary sources of VOCs in China. There was a significant positive correlation (p < 0.05) between the annual mean VOC concentration and population size, and a notable negative correlation (p < 0.05) with GDP per capita. Atmospheric VOCs had no non-carcinogenic risk (HI = 0.5) but exhibited a probable carcinogenic risk (7.5 × 10-5), with relatively high values for 1,2-dibromoethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, and naphthalene. The health risk was predominantly driven by halocarbons. These findings are essential for a better understanding of atmospheric VOCs and for developing more targeted VOC control measures.

Estimating Young Adult Uptake of Smoking by Area Across the United Kingdom.

There is majority support in parliament and across the United Kingdom to implement a "smoke-free generation" policy which would mean people born on or after January 1, 2009, could never legally be sold tobacco. To explore the potential impact this policy could have, we estimated the number of young adults (18-25 years) currently taking up smoking each year by area across the United Kingdom. Using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Annual Population Survey (APS), and Smoking Toolkit Study (STS), we estimated the total number of 18- to 25-year-olds taking up smoking each year, based on national estimates of population size (ONS) and the proportion who reported ever having regularly smoked (STS). We used local data on adult smoking rates (APS) to apportion the national estimated number of young adults taking up smoking to specific areas. Around 127500 18- to 25-year-olds in the United Kingdom start smoking regularly each year (~350 each day); 105700 each year in England, 11500 in Scotland, 6500 in Wales, and 3800 in Northern Ireland. Uptake estimates varied across localities: for example, North East Lincolnshire had the highest proportion of young adults taking up smoking each year (3.9%) and Wokingham had the lowest (0.9%). Despite reductions in smoking prevalence over recent decades, hundreds of young adults in the United Kingdom start smoking every day. Data on rates of uptake among individual local authorities can be used to focus attention locally prior to the introduction of new age of sale laws.

Tuberculosis Elimination Forecast for Moscow Region

The objective: to assess the possibility of tuberculosis elimination in Moscow Region by 2035.Subjects and Methods. For the study, Federal Statistical Surveillance Form No. 8 Information on Active Tuberculosis cases, and Form No. 33 Information on Tuberculosis Patients for 015-2023 were selected, rates were calculated for the average annual population in the region. Changes in tuberculosis incidence in Moscow Region were analyzed.Results. Based on results of the study on possibility to eliminate tuberculosis in Moscow Region by 2035, it has been found that if the current epidemic situation persists, it is only possible to achieve the mortality target. To achieve the target results for other rates, additional measures to prevent tuberculosis among the population are needed.

Nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM PD) incidence trends in the United States, 2010–2019

BackgroundNontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are ubiquitous environmental bacteria that cause chronic lung disease. Rates of NTM pulmonary disease (NTM PD) have increased over the last several decades, yet national estimates in the United States (US) have not been assessed since 2015.MethodsWe used a nationally representative population of Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥ 65 years to assess rates of NTM PD in a high-risk population from 2010 to 2019. Poisson generalized linear models were used to assess the annual percent change in incidence in the overall population and among key demographic groups such as sex, geography, and race/ethnicity. We evaluated the relative prevalence of various comorbid conditions previously found to be associated with NTM PD.ResultsWe identified 59,724 cases of incident NTM PD from 2010 to 2019 from an annual mean population of 29,687,097 beneficiaries, with an average annual incidence of 20.1 per 100,000 population. NTM PD incidence was overall highest in the South and among women, Asian individuals, and persons aged ≥ 80 years relative to other studied demographic groups. The annual percent change in NTM PD incidence was highest in the Northeast, at 6.5%, and Midwest, at 5.9%, and among women, at 6.5%. Several comorbid conditions were highly associated with concurrent NTM diagnosis, including allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis, bronchiectasis, and cystic fibrosis.ConclusionsHere we provide current estimates of NTM PD incidence and prevalence and describe increasing trends in the US from 2010 to 2019. Our study suggests a need for improved healthcare planning to handle an increased future caseload, as well as improved diagnostics and therapeutics to better detect and treat NTM PD in populations aged ≥ 65 years.

COVID-19 Pandemic Effects on Angler Effort and a Brown Trout Population in a Driftless Area Stream in Southeast Minnesota

Abstract Early opinions of the COVID-19 pandemic included equivocal notions of whether the pandemic would result in more or less angler effort and harvest in recreational fisheries. Early papers also suggested using changes in angling license sales to infer changes in angler effort but expressed concern about adequate assessment of pandemic effects on fisheries because of interruptions to routine assessment programs. To assess pandemic effects on angler effort at a stream trout fishery, a trail camera was installed, immediately prior to implementation of a statewide stay-at-home order, at a representative stream trout angling site that is part of a long-term fish monitoring program. The trail camera was deployed through the trout harvest angling season from the peak pandemic year of 2020 through cessation of most restrictions in 2022. Statewide sales of angling licenses and trout stamps were assessed through this time to compare with angler effort measured with the trail camera. Annual trout population assessments were examined for pandemic effects in conjunction with angler effort. Anglers were present on 84% of days in 2020, 66% in 2021 and 69% in 2022. Following the pandemic peak of 603 angler-hours in 2020, angler-hours declined by -23% between 2020 and 2021, and by -16% between 2020 and 2022; whereas statewide sales of licenses and trout stamps only declined by -4% between 2020 and 2021 and -11% between 2020 and 2022, suggesting more angler pressure at the study site than could be inferred by changes in license or trout stamp sales. Higher pressure during the pandemic was due in part to more anglers younger than 20 years old. Despite higher angler pressure in 2020, there was no long-term effect on the Brown Trout population, as adult abundance in 2021 and 2022 exceeded abundance in every year from 2017 to 2020. These data add to a limited number of similar field-based pandemic studies coupling changes in angler use with fish population responses and should provide further insight into the broader assessment of COVID-19 pandemic effects.

Work-related injuries and illnesses (WRII) presenting to Illinois hospitals, 2017-2021: The importance of emergency department (ED) data.

Research characterizing work-related injuries and illnesses (WRII) has predominantly focused on inpatients and deaths, despite evidence that 4% of WRII are admitted as inpatients and deaths are less than 0.2% of acute WRII. Our aim is to determine the usefulness of incorporating emergency department (ED) hospital data into current occupational health surveillance systems. Data on ED and admitted WRII treated in Illinois hospitals from 2017 to 2021 were analyzed. Demographic characteristics, primary diagnosis, procedures undertaken, and unique patient estimates are described. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to evaluate predictors of treatment in the ED and multivariable median regression models determined associations of total hospital charges. Between 2017 and 2021 there were 488,033 hospital presentations (95.9% nonadmissions) for WRII in Illinois, equating to a crude annual population rate of 1502.1/100,000. Non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) were disproportionately treated for illnesses, while Hispanic or Latino workers were disproportionately treated for injuries. African-Americans had the highest rate of ED emergent presentations (incident rate ratio [IRR] = 1.3, ref = NHW) and were less likely to be admitted for emergent presentations (IRR = 0.7, ref = NHW). ED presentations were more likely to be female, present with an injury, and at a rural, versus urban, hospital. Radiological investigations compromised the majority of procedures for nonadmitted patients (n = 403,317), and 94.8% were coded for a body region CONCLUSION: Between 2017 and 2021 in Illinois, there were nearly 500,000 hospital visits charged to workers' compensation totaling over US$ four billion. ED data provide additional insights into work-related chronic conditions, health disparities, and the usage of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures for WRII.

Use of capture–recapture models to evaluate abundance and dynamics of a stocked Muskellunge population

AbstractTo evaluate the success of a stocking program in Fox Lake, Minnesota, adult (≥76 cm total length) Muskellunge were captured with large nearshore trap nets and individually marked with passive integrated transponder tags during the 2011–2013 and 2015–2017 spawning seasons; then, capture–recapture data were analyzed at two different time scales. Despite substantial sampling effort, daily capture histories within a single season only supported closed‐population abundance estimates for both sexes in half the years; estimates were imprecise, and there was evidence of trap shyness or violation of the short‐term closure assumption in some years. Jolly–Seber models over all years supported relatively precise abundance estimates for both sexes every year, as well as estimates of annual survival, recruitment, and population growth rate. Link–Barker Jolly–Seber models provided estimates of population growth rate λ ≈ 1 indicating that per‐capita annual recruitment rates of only about 0.15–0.20 were adequate to maintain the adult population given the high annual apparent survival rates of 0.80 for adult females and 0.89 for adult males. POPAN Jolly–Seber models revealed that about 80 adult females and 90–126 adult males were vulnerable to capture each year in the 385 ha lake, and about 16–18 fish of each sex recruited to the adult population annually. This study illustrates the importance of open‐population models with multiple years of data to evaluate the abundance and population dynamics of a low‐density, long‐lived species.

Epidemiology of sporadic and outbreak-associated hepatitis A infections in Ontario, Canada: A descriptive summary, 2015-2022.

Hepatitis A is a disease of public health significance that typically causes acute, self-limiting infection. Understanding the risk factors and demographics associated with individual infections and outbreaks can guide public health communication and interventions. To assess the number of hepatitis A cases and outbreaks in Ontario from January 1, 2015, to November 22, 2022, and to identify common risk factors associated with sporadic and outbreak-associated infections in Ontario. Confirmed and probable hepatitis A cases reported between January 1, 2015, and November 22, 2022, were extracted from the Ontario electronic reporting system. Descriptive analyses were used to summarize and compare risk factors reported by sporadic and outbreak-associated hepatitis A cases. Annual rates of infection for individual public health units were calculated using annual population estimates for Ontario health regions. During the study period, 938 cases of hepatitis A were reported in Ontario (an average annual rate of 0.9 cases per 100,000 population), with 31.3% (n=294) of cases linked to one of 18 unique outbreaks of hepatitis A. Four of 13 local outbreaks were associated with elementary school settings. Reported risk factors differed between sporadic cases (predominantly travel-related) and cases linked to known outbreaks (anal-oral contact, illicit drug use, diapering/assisting in toileting, close contact with a case). Rates of sporadic infection differed across public health units in Ontario over the study period. Public health interventions that aim to increase awareness of hepatitis A risk factors and increase vaccine uptake among those at increased risk of exposure could help to reduce the incidence of both locally acquired and travel-related sporadic infections and outbreaks.

The Impact of Quality Public Service Delivery on Customer Satisfaction: In Case of Nekemte Town Police Administration, Nekemte, Oromia, Ethiopia

This research involved 397 participants selected through stratified and simple random sampling methods. The objective was to assess the influence of service quality delivery on customer satisfaction within Nekemte Town Police Administration, utilizing the SERVQUAL model. To fulfill this goal, a quantitative research study incorporating both descriptive and causal (inferential) research designs was conducted. Questionnaires with a five-point Likert scale were employed, drawing from the annual target population of 51,480 Nekemte Town Police Administration customers. Data was gathered through personally administered questionnaires, and subsequent analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 27, employing descriptive and inferential statistics. The findings indicated minimal customer satisfaction, making it challenging to precisely determine customers&amp;apos; expectations and perceptions regarding service quality dimensions. Notably, all service quality dimensions positively influenced satisfaction levels. Specifically, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy emerged as significant contributors to customer satisfaction, while reliability and tangibility had a comparatively lesser impact. In light of these results, the researcher recommends that the Nekemte Town Police Administration implement training, corrective measures to enhance responsiveness, motivational initiatives, and the utilization of fault-free technologies to improve overall customer satisfaction.