Annual Percentage Change Research Articles

Incidence, prevalence and clinical presentation of inflammatory bowel diseases in Northern France: a 30-year population-based study

In industrialized countries, the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) appears stabilized. This study examined the incidence and phenotype of IBD in Northern France over a 30-year period. Including all IBD patients recorded in the EPIMAD population-based registry from 1988 to 2017 in Northern France, we described the incidence and clinical presentation of IBD according to age, sex and time. A total of 22,879 incident IBD cases were documented (59% (n=13,445) of Crohn's disease (CD), 38% (n=8803) of ulcerative colitis (UC), 3% (n=631) of IBD unclassified (IBDU)). Over the study period, incidence of IBD, CD and UC was 12.7, 7.2 and 5.1 per 105 person-years, respectively. The incidence of CD increased from 5.1/105 in 1988-1990 to 7.9/105 in 2015-2017 (annual percent change (APC):+1.9%, p<0.0001). The incidence of UC increased from 4.5/105 to 6.1/105 (APC:+1.3%, p<0.0001). The largest increase was observed in children (+4.3% in CD, p<0.0001;+5.4% in UC, p<0.0001) followed by young adults aged 17-39 years (+1.9% in CD, p<0.0001;+1.5% in UC, p<0.0001). The increase in UC incidence was significantly higher in women than in men (+1.9% in women,+0.8% in men; p=0.006). We estimated that in our area, by 2030, nearly 0.6% of the population will have IBD. The persistent increase of IBD incidence among children and young adults but also in women with UC in Northern France, suggests the persistence of substantial predisposing environmental factors. Santé Publique France; INSERM; Amiens, Lille and Rouen University Hospitals.

Prostate cancer incidence rates, trends, and treatment related to prostate-specific antigen screening recommendations in the United States

BackgroundChanges in US prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening guidelines have impacted prostate cancer (PCa) incidence rates and trends. This study shows corresponding changes in PCa incidence rates and describes treatment patterns by tumor stage, age, and race/ethnicity. MethodsAnalyses were based on 777,152 cases diagnosed in 17 population-based tumor registries in the SEER Program of the US National Cancer Institute, 2007–2021. Rates were age adjusted and trends assessed using annual percent change and joinpoint regression. ResultsPCa age-adjusted incidence rates (per 100,000) fell from 165.8 in 2007 to 101 in 2014 (APC=-6.51, p<0.05) and then rose to 121.2 in 2021 (APC=1.87, p< 0.05). The significant fall and rise in rates appeared in ages 55–69 and ≥70, all racial/ethnic groups (except in Hispanics during 2014–2021), and in local/regional stage. PCa incidence rates by tumor stage, age, and race/ethnicity were presented and discussed. A few PCa cases were identified through autopsy or death certificate among the racial/ethnic groups (0.68 %-1.37 %). Unstaged cases identified through sources other than autopsy or death certificate significantly varied by race/ethnicity, ranging from 4.13 % for non-Hispanic (NH) Whites to 9.5 % for Hispanic (Chi-square p <.0001). In 2017–2021, surgery occurred in 33 % of cases (primarily in local/regional cases, inversely associated with age), radiation in 30 % of cases (increasing with age in local/regional stage cases and decreasing with age in distant stage cases), and chemotherapy in 2 % of cases (<1 % in local/regional stage cases and 9 %-38 % for age groups in distant stage cases). Several racial/ethnic differences in treatment exist, such as NH Blacks (vs. NH Whites) with local/regional disease were significantly less likely to receive surgery and more likely to receive radiation. ConclusionsUnderstanding trends and patterns of PCa rates and treatment among patients by tumor stage, age, and race/ethnicity can guide public health planning in relation to screening and treatment.

Trends in papillary thyroid cancer mortality in Denmark according to stage and education.

Few studies exist on trends in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) survival and mortality according to stage and level of socioeconomic status. Nationwide cohort study. Patients diagnosed with PTC during 2000-2015 in Denmark were identified from the Danish Cancer Registry and followed until the end of 2020. We evaluated 5-year all-cause mortality and relative survival according to stage and 5-year mortality rates with corresponding average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) according to stage and education. Finally, we assessed the association between several factors and mortality of PTC using Cox regression. For the 2006 cases of PTC diagnosed during 2000-2015, relative survival tended to increaseand mortality rates tended to decrease for all stages. For localized PTC, mortality rates tended to decrease among individuals with medium education (AAPC = -7.0, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -14.7 to 1.5), but showed an increasing pattern among individuals with long education (AAPC = 19.8, 95%CI: -4.2 to 50.0). For nonlocalized PTC, mortality rates showed a decreasing tendency among individuals with medium and long education (AAPC = -5.5, 95%CI: -13.2 to 2.9, and AAPC = -10.4, 95%CI: -20.8 to 1.4, respectively). Being diagnosed with PTC in a more recent calendar period and long education were associated with a lower mortality rate in the Cox regression analysis. A pattern of an increasing relative survival and decreasing mortality rates of PTC across all stages was seen in Denmark during 2000-2015. The decreasing pattern in mortality rates was most evident in individuals with localized stage and medium education, and in individuals with nonlocalized stage and medium or long education.

Burden of oral cancer and associated risk factors at national and state levels: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease in India, 1990–2021

BackgroundOral cancer is the sixth most prevalent cancer globally, posing a significant health concern, especially in India, where it accounts for one-third of the global cases. Despite high incidence and mortality rates, comprehensive national and regional data on risk factors and trends are scarce. MethodsThis study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 report, focusing on the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and prevalence rate (ASPR) of oral cancer in India from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends, and ARIMA models were applied to forecast future trends from 2022 to 2031. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, India experienced a moderate increase in oral cancer mortality, with ASMR rising from 5.32 to 5.92, reflecting an annual percentage change (APC) of 11.18 %. ASDR increased from 152.94 to 163.61 (APC of 6.98 %), and ASPR showed a marked rise from 15.71 to 25.46 (APC of 62.06 %). The burden varied significantly across states. Gender disparities were observed, with males consistently exhibiting higher incidence and mortality rates. ARIMA forecasts projected an upward trend in oral cancer metrics from 2022 to 2031, with ASIR expected to reach 10.15 per 100,000 and ASPR 29.38 per 100,000 by 2031. ConclusionsThe study reveals a persistent and growing burden of oral cancer in India, highlighting the influence of lifestyle and socioeconomic factors. Targeted strategies to mitigate risk behaviors, improve early detection, and address disparities are urgently needed to reduce the disease’s impact.

Human papillomavirus-associated cancers, precancers, and genital warts in Denmark, 2000–2022 – Current burden of disease and population impact of multi-cohort HPV vaccination

ObjectivesWe present incidence trends of cancer and precancer at human papillomavirus(HPV)-associated sites, and genital warts, including the current burden of HPV-associated disease in Denmark, a country with multi-cohort HPV vaccination. MethodCases were identified from high-quality nationwide registries (2000−2022). The age-specific incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated according to sex and calendar year. The current burden (2020−2022) of HPV-associated disease was estimated as the average annual number of each lesion multiplied by the disease-specific HPV-attributable fraction. ResultsASRs of cervical precancer and genital warts declined markedly in the post-HPV vaccination period – for genital warts corresponding to an EAPC of −13.7 % (−15.0;-12.4)(women) and − 8.8 % (−9.4;-8.2)(men), respectively. ASRs of HPV-associated cancer sites increased continuously in men (EAPC:2.8 %(2.2;3.5)), and the same was observed for non-cervical HPV-associated cancer sites in women (EAPC:2.5 %(2.0;3.0)). Cervical cancer, however, decreased in the post-HPV vaccination period (EAPC:-2.7 %(−3.8;-1.5)). Age-specific incidence rates of HPV-associated cancer sites decreased slightly in younger women and were stable in younger men, while incidence rates in older men approached or even surpassed that of older women. Data on the current burden showed that cervical precancer and genital warts are still the major contributors to HPV-associated disease, and oropharyngeal cancer now accounts for more annual cases on a population level than cervical cancer. ConclusionDanish data show decreased incidence of cervical lesions and genital warts in the post-vaccine era. Despite population impact of HPV vaccination, HPV-associated disease remains a public health issue and increasingly among men.

Trends and disparities in age, gender, ethnoracial background, and urbanization status in adult mortality due to thoracic aortic aneurysm: a retrospective nationwide study in the United States

Introduction: Thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAA) are a significant health concern, with the true prevalence likely underestimated due to undiagnosed cases. Outcomes in TAA are influenced by factors like age, gender, and comorbidities such as hypertension. This study examines mortality trends and disparities associated with TAA in US adults. Methodology: This study analyzed death certificates from 1999 to 2020 using the CDC WONDER Database to identify TAA-related deaths in individuals aged 25 and older using ICD-10 codes I71.1 and I71.2. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 1,000,000 and annual percent changes (APCs) were calculated and stratified by year, gender, age group, race/ethnicity, region, and urbanization status. Results: Between 1999 and 2020, 47,136 TAA-related deaths were reported among US adults. The AAMR decreased from 16.2 to 8.2 per 1,000,000, with a significant decline from 1999 to 2013 (APC: −5.00; 95% CI: −5.54 to −4.54; P&lt;0.001). Older adults had the highest AAMRs at 44.6 per 1,000,000. Men had higher AAMRs than women (11.2 vs. 9). AAMRs were highest among non-Hispanic (NH) Black (11), followed by NH White (10.3), NH Asian or Pacific Islander (9.5), NH American Indian or Alaska Native (7.8), and Hispanic (5.2) populations. Non-metropolitan areas had higher AAMRs than metropolitan areas (11 vs. 9.8). Conclusions: The analysis showed a significant decline in TAA mortality since 1999, with recent stabilization. However, disparities persist, with higher AAMRs among men, older adults, NH Black adults and non-metropolitan residents, highlighting the need for targeted and equitable interventions.

Trends in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Mortality Rates in the US and Projections Through 2040

ImportanceThe burden of liver cancer varies worldwide. An upward trend in both hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and mortality in the past 2 decades has been observed.ObjectiveTo assess observed HCC-related age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) in the US for 2006 to 2022 and provide ASMR projections through 2040.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study used data from the National Vital Statistics System, which is accessible through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research website. Data on deaths attributed to HCC (from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2022) were obtained for adults 25 years or older and were stratified by liver disease etiology, age, sex, and race and ethnicity. Etiologies included alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe main outcomes were (1) observed ASMRs of HCC per 100 000 persons using Joinpoint regression (National Cancer Institute) to assess trends during 2006 to 2022 and (2) ASMRs projected for 2023 to 2040 using Prophet and AutoARIMA modeling.ResultsThis study included 188 280 HCC-related deaths from 2006 to 2022. Most deaths occurred among males (77.4%). The annual percentage change was 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2% to 7.7%) for 2006 to 2009 and decreased to 1.8% (95% CI, 0.7% to 2.0%) for 2009 to 2022, with an overall observed ASMR of 5.03 per 100 000 persons in 2022 and a projected ASMR of 6.39 per 100 000 persons by 2040, with consistent trends for both sexes. By etiology, ASMRs decreased for HCV- and HBV-related mortality but increased for ALD- and MASLD-related mortality. In 2022, MASLD surpassed HBV as the third-leading cause of HCC-related death and was projected to overtake HCV in 2032 as the second-leading cause; ALD was projected to be the leading cause of HCC-related death in 2026. In 2022, the ASMR was higher among individuals aged 65 years or older compared with those aged 25 to 64 years (18.37 vs 1.79 per 100 000 persons). The American Indian or Alaska Native population had the largest increase in projected ASMR by 2040 (14.71 per 100 000 persons) compared with the Asian population (3.03 per 100 000 persons).Conclusions and RelevanceIn this cross-sectional study, ASMRs for ALD- and MASLD-related HCC death increased rapidly from 2006 to 2022; ALD-related HCC was projected to be the leading cause by 2026, with MASLD as the second-leading cause by 2032. These findings may serve as a reference for public health decision-making and timely identification of groups at high risk of HCC death.

Projected epidemiological trends and burden of liver cancer by 2040 based on GBD, CI5plus, and WHO data.

Incidence of liver cancer as one of the most common cancers worldwide and become the significant contributor for the mortality among cancer patients. The disease burden, risk factors, and trends in incidence and mortality of liver cancer globally was described subsequently estimated the projections of liver cancer incidence or mortality by 2040. Data regarding age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for liver cancer was obtained from multiple databases, including GLOBOCAN 2020, CI5 volumes I-XI, WHO mortality database, and Global Burden of Disease (GBD)-2019. Concentrating on worldwide variations, this thorough analysis offers insights into patterns of incidence and mortality based on gender and age. Our findings encompass significant indicators, including age-standardized rates (ASRs), average annual percentage change (AAPC), and future projections extending up to the year 2040. Liver cancer holds the sixth position in terms of most frequently diagnosed cancers and stands as the sixth leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide in 2020, accounting for 905,677 new cases and 782,000 fatalities. Additionally, liver cancer contributed to 12,528,421 age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with an age-standardized DALYs rate of 161.92 in 2019 worldwide. The age-specific incidence rates exhibited significant variations across different regions, showing a fivefold difference in males and females. A significant increase in incidence was observed in North Europe and Asia, while North African countries reported a higher mortality burden (ASR, 10 per 100,000) compared to developed countries. Since last few years, the incidence and mortality rates have increased and attained Annual Average Percentage Change (AAPC) incidence rate of 7.7 (95% CI 3.9-11.6) for men and the highest AAPC mortality rate of 12.2 (95% CI 9.5-15.0) for women. In 2019, Western Europe emerged as the high-risk region for DALYs related to smoking and alcohol consumption, while high-income North America carried a high risk for DALYs associated with a high body-mass index. The projected trend indicates a surge in new liver cancer incident cases, expected to rise from around 905,347 to an estimated 1,392,474 by 2040. This study described the evidence pertinent to higher incidence trends in liver cancer, particularly among both young and older adults, encompassing males and females, as well as those who are HIV-infected and HBsAg positive. A significant rise in the young population poses a significant public health concern that warrants attention from healthcare professionals to prioritize the promotion of health awareness and the development of effective cancer prevention strategies, particularly in many developing countries.

Evolution of orthodontic services in the Brazilian Unified Health System: a time series analysis (2011-2022).

Although malocclusion is the third most prevalent oral health condition, orthodontics is not part of the minimum list of mandatory specialties to be offered in the Dental Specialty Centers of the Brazilian public health system, but rather as optional. Since the acknowledgment of this field as a part of the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS), access to orthodontic procedures has become optional by municipal governments. Therefore, this study analyzed the evolution of orthodontic procedure provision within SUS from 2011 to 2022. We conducted a retrospective observational study of time series analysis trends on the number of orthodontic procedures and municipalities offering them. The presentation of findings followed the recommendations of the Reporting of Studies Conducted using Observational Routinely Collected Data. Secondary data from 2011 to 2022 were collected from the SUS Department of Informatics. Orthodontic procedures were organized by year, region, state, and municipality. The study applied descriptive analyses, and the Prais-Winsten generalized linear regressions for time series analysis. The quantity of municipalities offering orthodontic procedures have shown a small increasing during period analyzed (from 128 to 157). Northeast and South macro-regions have increased consistently the municipalities with orthodontic offering. All regions showed stable trends for each procedure, except for the South, which exhibited increasing rates of space maintainer placement (Annual Percentage Change (APC): 72.95; 95% CI: 31.6, 127.3) and maintenance sessions (APC: 15.40; 95% CI: 4.5, 27.5). The study showed decreasing trends for appliance removal in the South (APC: -38.07; 95% CI: -47.1, -27.5) and Northeast (APC: -25.19; 95% CI: -36.5, -11.9) regions. From 2011 to 2022, there was a small increase in number of municipalities offering orthodontic procedures in the Brazilian public health system, in addition to a stationary trend for almost all types of procedures.

Trends of extreme hyperbilirubinemia related infant mortality in select European countries (1990-2019).

Limited data exist on population-level mortality outcomes related to extreme neonatal hyperbilirubinemia (EHB) and this study examines trends in annual infant mortality rate (IMR) attributed to hemolytic and perinatal jaundice among Germany, France, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain from 1990 to 2019. Data on annual incident cases and disability-adjusted life years were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. Live birth cohort data were sourced from UN World Population Prospects. We quantified temporal trends, with relative percent changes. Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) were evaluated using the Joinpoint Regression Program. EHB-related infant mortality decreased from 21.4 (95%CI: 16.1, 27.1) in 1990 to 4.2 (95%CI: 1.9, 7.6) per million live births in 2019. Germany demonstrated lowest AAPC of -3.2% (95% CI: -3.8, -2.5), while Portugal had the highest AAPC of -8.6% (95% CI -11.9, -5.1) in reducing infant mortality due to EHB. There were distinct divergences in the trajectories of declining EHB mortality among the studied countries. This study highlights a significant decline in infant mortality due to extreme hyperbilirubinemia, emphasizing the need for national surveillance and tailored guidelines to prevent bilirubin induced neurological damage. This cross-sectional analysis revealed a marked decline in infant mortality rates attributed to extreme hyperbilirubinemia across the selected European countries. The rates of decline varied significantly between countries, demonstrating notable heterogeneity in mortality trends when stratified by age at death. Implementing data-driven surveillance systems can optimize the alignment of equitable healthcare services, strengthen accountability measures, and identify critical operational inefficiencies. In the European Union, country-specific hyperbilirubinemia guidelines should be reinforced to ensure effective screening and post-discharge follow-up protocols that are tailored to risk burden and available healthcare resources.

Global, regional and country-specific burden of patella, tibia or fibula, or ankle fractures and its prediction to 2035: findings from global burden of disease study 2019.

Bone fractures are a global public health issue and a major source of significant illness and financial hardship. However, to date, there is limited research on patella, tibia or fibula, or ankle fractures (FPTFA) disease burden. Using the framework of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we conducted temporal trends of disease burden, effects of sex and socio-demographic index (SDI) on age standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-period-cohort model. Machine learning models were built to predict the ASPR of FPTFA in 2035. In 1990 and 2019, the top three of all fractures with the highest ASPR was FPTFA. Globally, in 2019, there were 13529.45million (95%UI: 11811.02, 15642.25), 9198.67million (95%UI: 8518.9, 10009.91) and 77.54million (95%UI: 34.09, 149.9) prevalent cases of fracture attributable to fall, transport injury and mechanical external force, respectively. The number of fracture prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs), and ASPR were higher in males than in females. From 1990 to 2019, most of GBD regions showed a downward trend in average annual percent change (AAPC) of ASPR attributable to transport injuries, High-income Asia Pacific had the highest decline (AAPC= -1.81%, 95%CI: -1.89% to -1.74%). However, an upward trend in East Asia was observed (AAPC = 1.60%, 95%CI: 1.48-1.73%). With increasing SDI, the ASPR for FPTFA attributed to the fall and mechanical external force slowly increased and then turned downward, especially in high-income and high-SDI countries. The longitudinal age curve suggested that the attributed rate was increased for the three sites of lower limb fractures. The best predictive models for FPTFA caused by falls, transport injuries and mechanical external force were autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) (0,2,1), ARIMA (2,0,1) and ARIMA (0,2,2), with R2 of 0.96, 0.78 and 0.94, respectively. By 2035, ASPR for the fall-related FPTFA will continue to rise rapidly, whereas the ASPR of the transport injury-related FPTFA will gradually decrease. FPTFA attributed to the falls is the dominant type and the burden and trends of the fall-related FPTFA are substantial. Fall prevention and access to treatment are crucial for reducing FPTFA burden.

Total Gastrectomy for Gastric Malignancy: Trends Over 15 Years in Major Morbidity, Mortality, and Patient Selection From The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program.

We examined trends in major morbidity and mortality following total gastrectomy for malignancy in a national cohort. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to identify patients who underwent total gastrectomy for malignancy from 2007 to 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to determine annual percent changes (APCs) in thirty-day postoperative major morbidity, mortality, and length of stay (LOS). Major morbidity included deep and organ space surgical site infection, venous thromboembolism, cardiac event, pneumonia, acute renal failure, sepsis, and respiratory failure. Of 3515 patients, the median age was 65 years (IQR = 55-73), 59% were male, and 57.9% were White. Major morbidity was 23%, which did not change over time (APC = -1.4, 95% CI = -3.4 to 0.58), nor were there changes in individual morbidities with time. The most common morbidities were organ space surgical site infection (9.2%) and pneumonia (8.5%). Mortality rate in the study cohort was 2.7% and did not change (APC = -6.2, 95% CI = -13.0 to 1.1). LOS (median 9 days) also did not vary with time (APC = -2.3, 95% CI = -7.8 to 3.9). There was an increase in patients with diabetes (21.6% vs. 11.2%, p < 0.05), BMI ≥ 30 (31.1% vs. 18.2%, p < 0.05), and ASA IV-V status (11.6% vs. 3.5%, p < 0.05). Morbidity and mortality following total gastrectomy for malignancy have not significantly changed over the last fifteen years. While this may in part be explained by increased patient comorbidity, efforts should be made to improve patient selection and mitigate postoperative complications to allow for timely adjuvant therapies.

Prednisolone impairs trabecular bone score changes in adolescents with 21-hydroxylase deficiency.

Individuals with 21-hydroxylase deficiency (21OHD) require lifelong glucocorticoid (GC) therapy, which increases their risk of fragility fractures. However, fractures in GC-treated individuals can occur at normal bone mineral density (BMD) levels, suggesting an alteration in the bone microarchitecture. To evaluate trabecular bone microarchitecture and its changes in adolescents with 21OHD. We enrolled 38 adolescents with 21OHD for whom complete clinical data and baseline and follow-up lumbar spine bone mineral density (LSBMD) measurements were available. The mean duration was 1.5 ± 0.6 years. Trabecular bone score (TBS), an indirect measurement of bone microarchitecture, was analyzed using iNsight™ software version 3.0. Impaired BMD and TBS were defined at Z-scores ≤ -1.5. At baseline, participants (55% female; 68% salt-wasting type; mean age, 15.2 ± 3.8 years; bone age, 17.5 ± 2.8 years; mean GC dose, 18.5 ± 6.5 mg/m2/day) had the prevalence of impaired BMD and TBS of 5% and 18%, respectively. During follow-up, adolescents with 21OHD receiving prednisolone showed a lower annual percentage change in TBS than those who received hydrocortisone (p = 0.028). A stepwise regression analysis showed that body mass index percentile (p < 0.001) and testosterone concentration (p = 0.002) were independent positive predictors of the baseline TBS Z-score, whereas prednisolone use was the only negative predictor of the annual percentage change in TBS (p = 0.002). Adolescents with 21OHD have a high prevalence of impaired bone microarchitecture. Furthermore, prednisolone therapy is associated with impaired bone microarchitecture development, suggesting that hydrocortisone may better preserve bone microarchitecture and should be considered the first-line treatment for this population.

Burden of Parkinson's disease in Central Asia from 1990 to 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Central Asia is known to face various ecological challenges that constitutes major risk factors for Parkinson's disease (PD). This study examines the burden of PD in Central Asia, a region where data on neurological disorders is notably sparse. Building on the latest Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021), this study investigates the Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) associated with PD in Central Asia and its countries from 1990 to 2021. The authors calculated average annual percent change (AAPC) to analyze trends, and compared individual country estimates to global figures. Additionally, incorporating data from the World Bank, both Bayesian hierarchical and non-hierarchical frequentist regression models were employed to assess their impact on DALYs. The DALYs varied across the study period, primarily driven by YLLs. While YLLs showed a uniform trend, YLDs were mostly incremental. Kazakhstan had the highest estimates across all metrics and was the only country aligned with global patterns. Age- and sex-specific estimates revealed substantial variations, with notably high figures found in male subjects from Tajikistan. The YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan saw a significant increase in AAPCs. In contrast, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan saw declines, likely attributable to civic conflict and inter-country differences in population structure. Further comparison of DALY trends revealed significant deviations for all countries from the global pattern. This study showed an overall increase in PD burden from 1990 to 2021. These findings underscore the need for targeted strategies to reduce PD burden, with a particular focus on Kazakhstan. Integrating historical information is crucial for discussing the plausible mechanisms in studies sourced from the GBD.

Global burden associated with rare infectious diseases of poverty in 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Rare infectious diseases of poverty (rIDPs) involve more than hundreds of tropical diseases, which dominantly affect people living in impoverished and marginalized regions and fail to be prioritized in the global health agenda. The neglect of rIDPs could impede the progress toward sustainable development. This study aimed to estimate the disease burden of rIDPs in 2021, which would be pivotal for setting intervention priorities and mobilizing resources globally. Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the study reported both numbers and age-standardized rates of prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years lived with disability, and years of life lost of rIDPs with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) at global, regional, and national levels. The temporal trends between 1990 and 2021 were assessed by the joinpoint regression analysis. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the disease burden for 2050. In 2021, there were 103.76 million (95% UI: 102.13, 105.44 million) global population suffered from rIDPs with an age-standardized DALY rate of 58.44 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 42.92, 77.26 per 100,000 population). From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized DALY rates showed an average annual percentage change of - 0.16% (95% confidence interval: - 0.22, - 0.11%). Higher age-standardized DALY rates were dominated in sub-Saharan Africa (126.35 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 91.04, 161.73 per 100,000 population), South Asia (80.80 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 57.31, 114.10 per 100,000 population), and countries with a low socio-demographic index. There was age heterogeneity in the DALY rates of rIDPs, with the population aged under 15years being the most predominant. Females aged 15-49years had four-times higher age-standardized DALY rates of rIDPs than males in the same age. The projections indicated a slight reduction in the disease burden of rIDPs by 2050. There has been a slight reduction in the disease burden of rIDPs over the past three decades. Given that rIDPs mainly affect populations in impoverished regions, targeted health strategies and resource allocation are in great demand for these populations to further control rIDPs and end poverty in all its forms everywhere.

Abstract 4134851: Demographic and regional disparities in cerebrovascular disease mortality among adult patients with pre-existing atherosclerosis in the United States from 1999-2020

Introduction: Atherosclerosis (ATH) is a major risk factor for cerebrovascular disease (CEVD), with persistent mortality disparities. Our study aims to identify vulnerable regions and demographics in the US adult population with pre-existing ATH at risk of CEVD. Methods: CDC Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) was used to access National Vital Statistics System data from 1999 to 2020. ATH-related CEVD was identified using CEVD as the underlying cause of death and ATH as a contributing cause of death. Results were presented as age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 population. Joinpoint regression was used to examine changes in trend and annual percentage change (APC). Results: A total of 325,408 CEVD occurred in patients with ATH from 1999 to 2020 (AAMR = 6.9, 95% CI: 6.8-7). Increased mortality rates were observed in males (AAMR = 6.3) as compared to females (AAMR = 5.1) (Figure, Panel A). AAMRs were highest in Non-Hispanic Whites [NHW] (5.7, 95% CI: 5.7 - 5.8), followed by non-Hispanic blacks [NHB] (5.5, 95% CI: 5.4 - 5.5), Hispanics (4.1, 95% CI: 4.0 - 4.1) and non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native [NH-AIAN] (3.6, 95% CI: 3.4 - 3.8). Non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander [NH-API] had the lowest mortality rates (3.4, 95% CI: 3.4 - 3.5). Region-wise analysis revealed that mortality rates were highest in the West (6.4, 95% CI: 6.3-6.4) and Midwest (6.2, 95% CI: 6.1-6.2). The South reported the rate of 5.5 (95% CI: 5.5-5.6), while the Northeast had the lowest rate (4.4, 95% CI: 4.3-4.4). Mortality rates were consistently higher in rural areas (6.1, 95% CI: 6.0-6.1) compared to urban areas (5.3, 95% CI: 5.3-5.4) throughout the study period. Overall AAMR rose from 9.0 in 1999 to 10.4 in 2001, then steadily declined before increasing to 3.6 from 2016 to 2020 (APC: 0.41). After an initial decline, AAMR increased in men (APC: 1.09) from 2016 and in women (APC: 5.09) from 2018. AAMR also increased among NH-API (APC: 8.9) and NHB (APC: 8.3) from 2018 onwards, and NHW (APC: 0.1) from 2016 (Figure, Panel B). Conclusions: Our study reveals significant mortality disparities from CEVD in patients with ATH, identifying males, NHW, and residents in the West and Midwest as particularly at increased risk. Rural areas consistently show higher mortality rates than urban areas. These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions and strategic provision of healthcare resources to improve outcomes for vulnerable populations.

Abstract 4124966: Trends and Gender Differences in Stroke Mortality Rates Among Patients with Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter from 1999 to 2020

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AFib) and atrial flutter (AFL) are common arrhythmias associated with increased stroke risk. This study examines stroke mortality trends and gender differences among AFib/AFL patients in the United States over a 22-year period. Research Question: Do stroke mortality rates among patients with AFib/AFL show significant trends and gender differences from 1999 to 2020? Aims: The primary aim is to analyze trends in crude and age-adjusted stroke mortality rates and determine gender-specific differences over the 22-year period. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis using CDC multiple causes of death files from 1999 to 2020. Stroke deaths (ICD-10 codes I60-I69) with AFib/AFL (ICD-10 code I48) as contributory factors were identified. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated annually. Joinpoint regression calculated annual percentage change (APC) and assessed trend significance (p &lt; 0.05). Poisson regression was used for rate comparisons. Gender-specific trends highlighted differences between males and females. Results: The analysis included 204,127 stroke deaths with AFib/AFL. Both crude and age-adjusted mortality rates increased. The crude mortality rate rose from 3.3 per 100,000 in 1999 to 4.9 per 100,000 in 2020, APC 1.8% (p &lt; 0.01). The age-adjusted rate increased from 3.4 to 4.0 per 100,000, APC 1.2% (p &lt; 0.01). Females had higher crude mortality rates, increasing from 4.3 to 5.5 per 100,000, APC 1.3% (p &lt; 0.01), while males rose from 2.3 to 4.2 per 100,000, APC 2.2% (p &lt; 0.01). Age-adjusted rates: females increased from 3.4 to 3.9 per 100,000, APC 0.8% (p &lt; 0.01), and males from 3.3 to 4.2 per 100,000, APC 1.6% (p &lt; 0.01). Poisson regression indicated these differences were significant (p &lt; 0.05). Age adjustment narrowed gender disparity. Conclusion: Increasing stroke mortality rates among AFib/AFL patients highlight a growing public health concern in the United States. Females have higher crude stroke mortality rates than males, but age adjustment reveals a more balanced trend. More work is needed to understand influencing factors, including anticoagulation rates, healthcare access, and AFib/AFL management strategies.

Abstract 4125533: Demographic Trends and Disparities in Mortality Related to Coexisting Heart Failure and Diabetes Mellitus Among Older Adults in the United States: A Large Database Analysis from 1999 to 2020

Background: In the United States, over 38 million people have diabetes mellitus (DM) and more than 6 million have heart failure (HF). DM and HF often coexist, and each condition independently increases the likelihood of developing the other. Approximately 40% of individuals with HF also have DM, and this prevalence is even higher among older adults and hospitalized patients. While there has been concern regarding the increasing burden of disease for both conditions individually over the last decade, a comprehensive examination of mortality trends associated with their coexistence has not been thoroughly explored. Methods: This study analyzed death certificates from the CDC WONDER database, specifically focusing on mortality caused by the simultaneous presence of HF and DM among individuals aged 75 years and older. The data covers the period from 1999 to 2020. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 individuals and annual percent change (APC) were computed and categorized based on year, gender, and race/ethnicity. Results: Between 1999 and 2020, a total of 663,016 deaths were reported in patients with coexisting HF and DM. Overall, AAMR increased from 154.1 to 186.1 per 100,000 population between 1999 and 2020, with an initial increase from 1999 to 2005 (APC: 0.80; 95% CI: -0.17 to 2.94), a significant decline from 2005 to 2011 (APC: -2.82; 95% confidence interval (CI): -5.47 to – 1.71), a subsequent increase from 2011 to 2018 (APC: 0.61; 95% CI: -0.59 to 2.18), and finally a steep increase from 2018 to 2020 (APC: 11.30; 95% CI: 6.98 to 14.11). Gender-based analysis revealed that older men had consistently higher AAMRs than older women (Men: 185; 95% CI: 184.3 to 185.6; vs Women: 135.4; 95% CI: 135 to 135.8). Furthermore, we found that AAMRs were the highest among non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska natives (214.4; 95% CI: 207.5 to 221.4) followed by non-Hispanic African Americans (179.9; 95% CI: 178.5 to 181.4), Hispanics (159.5; 95% CI: 158 to 161.1), non-Hispanic White (152.9; 95% CI: 152.5 to 153.3), and non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander populations (104.1; 95% CI 102.4 to 105.8) (Figure 1). Conclusion: The mortality rate due to coexisting HF and DM has increased in the elderly population over the past decade. Males and non-Hispanic American Indians or Alaskan Natives had the highest AAMRs in our study.

Abstract 4134744: Trends and Disparities in Mortality Among Patients with Hypertensive Heart Disease and Congestive Heart Failure in the United States from 1999 to 2020

Background: Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) poses a growing public health concern. Global data reveal a concerning rise in HHD prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2019. The Framingham Study highlights that hypertension is linked to approximately one-quarter of heart failure cases. This association is even stronger among older adults, in whom hypertension is responsible for up to 68% of heart failure cases. Methods: This study analyzed death certificates within the CDC WONDER database for patients in the United States from 1999 to 2020. We identified deaths among individuals aged 25 years and older caused by HHD and CHF using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code I11.0. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 1,000,000 individuals and annual percent change (APC) were computed and categorized based on year, gender, race/ethnicity, and urbanization status. Results: Between 1999 and 2020, a total of 302,270 deaths were reported in patients due to HHD with CHF. Overall, AAMR increased from 37.3 to 134.9 per 1,000,000 population between 1999 and 2020, with a significant decrease from 1999 to 2004 (APC: -7.91; 95% CI: -20.16 to -1.04), followed by a significant increase from 2004 to 2007 (APC: 42.47; 95% CI: 21.27 to 55.62), a slight decrease from 2007 to 2014 (APC: -0.9; 95% CI: -9.38 to 2.39), and finally a steep increase from 2014 to 2020 (APC: 14.22; 95% CI: 10.87 to 20.84). Gender-based analysis revealed that men had slightly higher AAMRs than women (Men: 63.1; 95% CI: 62.8 to 63.5 vs. Women: 60.7; 95% CI: 60.5 to 61). Moreover, AAMRs were highest among non-Hispanic African Americans (109.6; 95% CI: 108.6 to 110.6), followed by non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Natives (66.6; 95% CI: 63.1 to 70.1), non-Hispanic Whites (58.5; 95% CI: 58.2 to 58.7), Hispanics (53.7; 95% CI: 52.9 to 54.5), and non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islanders (39; 95% CI: 38–39.9). In addition, non-metropolitan areas had higher AAMRs than metropolitan areas (non-metropolitan: 65.7; 95% CI: 65.2 to 66.3 vs. metropolitan: 62.1; 95% CI: 61.8 to 62.3) (Figure 1). Conclusions: Despite an initial decline, mortality from combined HHD and CHF has risen significantly since 1999. Notably, mortality was most pronounced among men, non-Hispanic African Americans, and individuals residing in non-metropolitan areas.

Abstract 4131486: Cardiovascular Mortality in Children and Young Adults: Trends and Demographic Differences in the United States, 1999 to 2021

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the U.S. younger population is on the rise. However, limited data is available on CVD-related mortality trends in this population. Aim: This study aimed to assess the temporal trends and demographic differences in CVD-related mortality among the U.S. youth. Methods: The CDC WONDER dataset was analyzed from 1999-2021 for CVD-related mortality in children and young adults (age &lt;25 years). Socio-demographic data including gender, race/ethnicity, urbanization status and census region was acquired. Age adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 persons and annual percent changes (APCs) with 95% confidence interval (CIs) were calculated. Results: Between 1999-2021, a total 54,283 CVD-related deaths occurred among the youth in the U.S. The overall AAMR declined from 1999-2008 (APC, -1.15 [-3.4 to 0.53]), followed by sharp decrease from 2008-2012 (APC, -3.28 [-4.68 to 0.86]). The AAMR continued to decrease steadily from 2012 to 2019 (APC: -1.20, [-3.76 to -0.06]), followed by a sharp increase in from 2019 to 2021, (APC, 3.03 [-0.66 to 5.12]). Males consistently had higher AAMRs than females from 1999 (AAMR males: 2.99 vs females: 2.3) to 2021 (AAMR males: 2.39 vs females: 1.74). Non-Hispanic (NH) Black or African Americans had the highest AAMR in 2020 (3.68), followed by NH Whites (1.71), Hispanic or Latinos (1.59), and Asian and Pacific Islanders (1.2). AAMRs also showed significant variations across different regions (overall AAMR West 1.81; Northeast 1.93; Midwest 2.3; South 2.69). Metropolitan areas (2.23) consistently had lower mortality rates than nonmetropolitan areas (2.59). Conclusion: Our analysis revealed that CVD-related mortality in the youth declined from 1999-2019, followed by an increase in 2020 to 2021. Highest mortality rates were seen in males, Black or African Americans, Western region of the U.S, and nonmetropolitan areas. Tailored interventions are necessitated to decrease the burden of CVD-related mortality in these demographics among children and young adults in the United States.