Annual North Atlantic Oscillation Research Articles

Variability in the Occurrence of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean and Its Climatic and Hydrological Determinants

The main objective of this study was to investigate the variability in annual counts and the northern extent of cyclones in the North Atlantic in the years 1970–2019. Cyclones were divided into tropical cyclones (TCs), called hurricanes in the Atlantic, and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), transformed from TCs. Linear regression methods and Pearson’s correlation coefficient were applied. The trend in numbers is upward for both types of cyclones. The maximum annual northern extent of TCs shows a decreasing trend, while that of ETCs is clearly increasing. Hurricane numbers show a moderate positive correlation (correlation coefficient 0.31) with the annual Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and a negative correlation (−0.34) with the annual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. For the SOI in the months of the second half of the year, there is a strong correlation (up to 0.51) with the number of TCs in September–October. The highest correlation (0.65) is observed between the number of TCs and the annual Atlantic Multi-decadal Index (AMO). The number of TCs have been shown to correlate positively with the water temperature of the North Atlantic and western Pacific, and negatively with the eastern Pacific Ocean. A significant relationship has also been recorded between SST and the maximum annual extent of extratropical cyclones to the north and east (correlation coefficient of 0.4 to 0.6).

Effects of Climate Change on Chlorophyll a in the Barents Sea: A Long-Term Assessment.

The Arctic climate strongly affects phytoplankton production and biomass through several mechanisms, including warming, sea ice retreat, and global atmospheric processes. In order to detect the climatic changes in phytoplankton biomass, long-term variability of chlorophyll a (Chl-a) was estimated in situ with the changes in the surface sea temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters during the period of 1984-2021. Spatial differences were detected in SST, SSS, and Chl-a. Chl-a increased parallel to SST in the summer-autumn and spring periods, respectively. Chl-a peaks were found near the ice edge and frontal zones in the spring season, while the highest measures were observed in the coastal regions during the summer seasons. SST and Chl-a demonstrated increasing trends with greater values during 2010-2020. Generalized additive models (GAMs) revealed that SST and Chl-a were positively related with year. Climatic and oceanographic variables explained significant proportions of the Chl-a fluctuations, with six predictors (SST, annual North Atlantic Oscillation index, temperature/salinity anomalies at the Kola Section, and sea ice extent in April and September) being the most important. GAMs showed close associations between increasing Chl-a and a decline in sea ice extent and rising water temperature. Our data may be useful for monitoring the Arctic regions during the era of global changes and provide a basis for future research on factors driving phytoplankton assemblages and primary productivity in the Barents Sea.

Grid-Point Rainfall Trends, Teleconnection Patterns, and Regionalised Droughts in Portugal (1919–2019)

This paper describes the long-term grid-point rainfall trends in the context of climate change, recent regionalised rainfall decline and drought events for mainland Portugal, which is teleconnected, in most cases, to the trends of mathematical descriptions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the century from October 1919 to September 2019. Grid-point rainfall dataset (1919–2019, from 126 centroids in a regular mesh over the country) have been constructed from high-quality ground-based data and as such, it provides a reliable source for the analysis of rainfall trends at different timescales: October–December, January–March, December–March, and the hydrological year. The Mann–Kendall (MK) coupled with Sen’s slope estimator test are applied to quantify the trends. The Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) analysis is implemented to obtain the fluctuation of the progressive trends along the studied 100-year period. Because of their pivotal role in linking and synchronising climate variability, teleconnections to the North Atlantic Ocean are also explored to explain the rainfall trends over the Portuguese continuum. The results provide a solid basis to explain the climate change effects on the Portuguese rainfall based on significant associations with strong negative correlations between changes in rainfall and in NAO indices. These strong opposing correlations are displayed in most of the winter seasons and in the year. After the late 1960s, a generalised rainfall decrease emerges against a background of significant upward trends of the NAO; such coupled behaviour has persisted for decades. Regionalised droughts at three identified climatic regions, based on factor analysis and Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), are also discussed, concluding that the frequency of severe droughts may increase again, accompanied by a stronger influence of the recently more positive and unusual winter season and annual NAO indices.

Impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on water resources in South Western Poland

The paper presents the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the water resources, especially considering groundwater discharge (baseflow) in south-western Poland. The impact of long-term changes of meteorological conditions on the water resources of this area in the 1966-2015 was determined on the basis of changes in the baseflow and total stream flow. Statistical analysis of meteorological and hydrological data showed that the runoff from the Sudeten mountain range and its foreground depends on the circulating climate factors (like the NAO). The annual NAO index best describes the variability of the average annual (12-month) total stream flow and groundwater discharge calculated from February to January and March to February, while the winter NAO index best describes the variability of the average annual (12-month) total stream flow and groundwater discharge calculated from March to February and April to March. The winter NAO index also best describes the variability of the average six-month (6-month) stream flow and groundwater discharge calculated from April to September. In the above-mentioned cases, the values of the Pearson correlation coefficient are at a high level and reach the value of -0.65.

Long-term changes in the autumn migration phenology of dabbling ducks in southern Ontario and implications for waterfowl management

Delays in waterfowl autumn migration have been widely reported by hunters and ornithologists throughout North America. The implications of such delays are vast, with potential effects on the efficacy of population management, reduced social and economic opportunities, and reduced resource availability by overuse and over-grazing in key staging areas. In this study, we tested for changes in autumn migration timing for six abundant species of dabbling ducks in southern Ontario, Canada. We applied generalized linear mixed models to test for effects of year and climate indices El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the Julian date of peak abundance as observed during aerial surveys conducted throughout the lower Great Lakes. Our analyses revealed delays of 11–18 days between 1968 and 2011 for four of six focal species: mallard, American black duck, American wigeon and gadwall. La Nina and El Nino events had no effect on migration timing for American black duck, American green-winged teal or American wigeon, while an increase in the annual NAO index resulted in a delayed migration for American wigeon. There was an NAO:ENSO interaction for mallard and gadwall migration; an increase in NAO advanced peak migration dates during La Nina events. However, an increase in NAO delayed migration for gadwall during the neutral phase of the ENSO and delayed migration for both species during El Nino events. Blue-winged teal and American green-winged teal showed no change in migration timing. Given that climate forecasts indicate continued positive-value phases, the autumn migrations for mallard, American black duck, gadwall and American wigeon may become increasingly delayed. Wildlife managers should use all available data, including from standardized aerial surveys, citizen science and climate models to inform and direct adaptive population management, hunting regulations, wildlife emergency response and habitat conservation.

Latitudinal Structure of the Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability on Interannual to Decadal Time Scales in the North Atlantic Ocean

AbstractThe latitudinal structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the North Atlantic is investigated using numerical results from three ocean circulation simulations over the past four to five decades. We show that AMOC variability south of the Labrador Sea (53°N) to 25°N can be decomposed into a latitudinally coherent component and a gyre-opposing component. The latitudinally coherent component contains both decadal and interannual variabilities. The coherent decadal AMOC variability originates in the subpolar region and is reflected by the zonal density gradient in that basin. It is further shown to be linked to persistent North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions in all three models. The interannual AMOC variability contained in the latitudinally coherent component is shown to be driven by westerlies in the transition region between the subpolar and the subtropical gyre (40°–50°N), through significant responses in Ekman transport. Finally, the gyre-opposing component principally varies on interannual time scales and responds to local wind variability related to the annual NAO. The contribution of these components to the total AMOC variability is latitude-dependent: 1) in the subpolar region, all models show that the latitudinally coherent component dominates AMOC variability on interannual to decadal time scales, with little contribution from the gyre-opposing component, and 2) in the subtropical region, the gyre-opposing component explains a majority of the interannual AMOC variability in two models, while in the other model, the contributions from the coherent and the gyre-opposing components are comparable. These results provide a quantitative decomposition of AMOC variability across latitudes and shed light on the linkage between different AMOC variability components and atmospheric forcing mechanisms.

Is long range transport of pollen in the NW Mediterranean basin influenced by Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns?

Climatic oscillations triggered by the atmospheric modes of the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns have an important influence on the atmospheric circulation at synoptic scale in Western Mediterranean Basin. Simultaneously, this climate variability could affect a variety of ecological processes. This work provides a first assessment of the effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) on the atmospheric long-range pollen transport episodes in the North-Eastern Iberian Peninsula for the period 1994–2011. Alnus, Ambrosia, Betula, Corylus and Fagus have been selected as allergenic pollen taxa with potential long-range transport associated to the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns in the Western Mediterranean Basin. The results showed an increase of long range pollen transport episodes of: (1) Alnus, Corylus and Fagus from Western and Central Europe during the negative phase of annual NAO and AO; (2) Ambrosia, Betula and Fagus from Europe during the negative phase of winter WeMO; (3) Corylus and Fagus from Mediterranean area during the positive phase of the annual AO; and (4) Ambrosia from France and Northern Europe during the positive phase of winter WeMO. Conversely, the positive phase of annual NAO and AO are linked with the regional transport of Alnus, Betula and Corylus from Western Iberian Peninsula. The positive phase of annual WeMO was also positively correlated with regional transport of Corylus from this area.

A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO

Abstract Wavelet analysis of the annual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index back to 1659 reveals a significant frequency band at about 60 years. Recent NAO decadal variations, including the increasing trend during 1960–1990 and decreasing trend since the mid-1990s, can be well explained by the approximate 60-year cycle. This quasi 60-year oscillation of the NAO is realistically reproduced in a long-term control simulation with version 4 of the Community Climate System Model, and the possible mechanisms are further investigated. The positive NAO forces the strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and induces a basin-wide uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming that corresponds to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The SST field exhibits a delayed response to the preceding enhanced AMOC, and shows a pattern similar to the North Atlantic tripole (NAT), with SST warming in the northern North Atlantic and cooling in the southern part. This SST pattern (negative NAT phase) may lead to an atmospheric response that resembles the negative NAO phase, and subsequently the oscillation proceeds, but in the opposite sense. Based on these mechanisms, a simple delayed oscillator model is established to explain the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. The magnitude of the NAO forcing of the AMOC/AMO and the time delay of the AMOC/AMO feedback are two key parameters of the delayed oscillator. For a given set of parameters, the quasi 60-year cycle of the NAO can be well predicted. This delayed oscillator model is useful for understanding of the oscillatory mechanism of the NAO, which has significant potential for decadal predictions as well as the interpretation of proxy data records.

Environmental causes of the fluctuations of red shrimp ( Aristeus antennatus) landings in the Catalan Sea

The fluctuations of catches of the deep-sea shrimp Aristeus antennatus (Risso, 1816) were analysed in the 6 ports of Catalonia where production is concentrated, based on monthly landings from 1988 to 2004. The 6 selected ports produced 300 t of red shrimp in 2004, or 80% of the total production in Catalonia. The series for each port showed clear interannual variability, with peaks of production in the early 1990s and more recently from 2001 to 2003. The time periods of the monthly data series, estimated by frequency analysis based on Fourier transform, varied around 7–8 years in the four central ports and 12–13 years in the two northern ports. Additionally, the different curves were not in phase: even in nearby ports, the maximum production is observed in different years. Since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is an excellent proxy for long-term series of environmental variables, we aimed to explore relationships between the fluctuation of the NAO index and A. antennatus landings in the Catalan Sea. The correlation between the mean annual NAO index and the annual catches in each port was positive and significant with some time lags (from 1 to 3 years). The existence of clear patterns linking the NAO with marine ecological processes has been demonstrated in many studies, but the underlying ecological mechanisms are far from being well understood. The variations in environmental parameters linked to the NAO may act on biological organisms at different levels (individual, population) through physiology (metabolic and reproductive processes) or through trophic relationships, including ecological cascade effects. We propose that NAO-induced environmental variability may enhance food supply to A. antennatus and hence strengthen the reproductive potential of particular year classes, which result in increased catches 1 to 3 years later, although other possible effects of environmental variability on the population dynamics of this species are worth investigating.

The intensification and shift of the annual North Atlantic Oscillation in a global warming scenario simulation

The intensification and shift of the annual North Atlantic Oscillation in a global warming scenario simulation

The intensification and shift of the annual North Atlantic Oscillation in a global warming scenario simulation

The impact of global warming on the annual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated with a global warming scenario simulation of the ECHAM4/OPYC3 coupled general circulation model. It is shown that the annual meridional pressure gradient over the North Atlantic is significantly strengthened, and the two centers of action of the NAO, the Icelandic low and the Azores high, are intensified and shifted northeastward by 10° to 20° in latitude and 30° to 40° in longitude in the global warming scenario. The shift of the centers of action leads to a failure in capturing the NAO change with the traditional definition of the NAO index. A modified index is introduced that allows for this shift, and exhibits a tendency toward the positive phase and an enhancement of its intensity. The intensification of Icelandic low is tied up with zonal mean state change, and the strengthened Azores high is related to the stationary wave change. The shift of the centers of action of the NAO is associated with the stationary wave change.

Coherent responses of sulphate concentration in Norwegian lakes: relationships with sulphur deposition and climate indices

Abstract. The coherence or synchrony in the trends in SO42– concentration in a set of 100 lakes in Norway that have a long-term chemical record was evaluated. Using a statistical technique that compares patterns or trends that are not uni-directional, the lakes were grouped into 18 subsets or clusters, each with between 2 and 11 lakes that had similar trends. These temporal trends were strongly correlated with several climate indices, notably the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI) measured in the autumn, and the annual North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). Because these clusters of lakes were spatially dispersed, they could not be compared directly with trends in wet S deposition, because S deposition varied substantially between lakes within each cluster. However, the average trend in SO42– concentration was evaluated in each of 10 regions of Norway that were defined previously on the basis of pollution load, meteorological variables and biogeography. Although these regions did not match the statistically-selected clusters of lakes with equal trends very closely, there were similar, strong correlations between climate indices (the AOI and NAOI) and the 10 average SO42– trends, although there were even stronger relationships with average wet S deposition in the regions. When subsets of lakes with coherent SO42– trends were selected from within each of the 10 regions, both wet S deposition and the climate indices were strongly correlated with those SO42– trends. Hence, lakes in Norway respond to changes in wet S deposition and are influenced by large-scale, i.e. global, climate signals. Future evaluation of recovery of lakes affected by acid deposition must therefore consider the confounding effects of climate and potential climate change. Keywords: recovery, acid deposition, coherence, sulphate, climate change

Variations des bilans de masse des glaciers alpins et scandinaves sur les dernières décennies, leurs relations avec l'Oscillation du climat de l'Atlantique Nord

Nowadays, different studies try to understand the relations between the main climate variables and the climatic archives available on the Earth. In this study, we explained relations between Alpine and Scandinavian glaciers and the North Atlantic Oscillation, to understand the recent evolution observed in these areas. The annual glacier mass balance variable is known as a good climatic local indicator. Earlier studies show that mass balance distributions are really representative of their own mauntainous area, on distances lower than 500 km. However, observations show that when mass balance is higher than the mean in the Alps, it tends to be lower in Scandinavia, and conversely. In order to understand this behaviour, we then studied the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Overall, the NAO index has a high inter-annual variability. However, dominant positive or negative phases can be observed for some long periods. For instance, indexes are in an exceptionally positive phase for the last ten years. The direct correlations between annual North Atlantic Oscillation index and annual mass balances are low, and slightly better for Scandinavian glaciers. In order to take away annual noise, we then tried to remove high signal frequencies with triangular filter,calculated on five years. Alpine glaciers and NAO indexes are anti-correlated, whereas Scandinavian glaciers and NAO index are positively correlated. Furthermore, the relation is more apparent with Scandinavian glaciers than with those of the Alps. This could be principally explained by the geographical distribution of the glaciers, and the greater importance of maritime precipitations on Scandinavian glaciers. Glaciers are still complex systems and the simple NAO index can not explain their entire hydrological cycle. Because of the low correlations, it is not possible to reconstruct past glaciers mass balances, nor to predict these mass balances thanks to NAO indexes.

Assessment of Greenland albedo variability from the advanced very high resolution radiometer Polar Pathfinder data set

The advanced very high resolution radiometer Polar Pathfinder (APP) data set is used to examine the variability of the surface albedo over Greenland. Analysis of the APP albedo record from 1981 to 1998 show anomalously low albedo during 1995 and 1998 over most of the ice sheet as compared with the other years. The low albedo encountered during these years suggests that the ice sheet experienced considerable melt in 1995 and 1998, particularly near the western margin of the ice sheet. Conversely, anomalously high albedos were found in 1992 as a result of colder temperatures and hence less melt following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The relationship between the annual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the mean summer albedo from all the stations reveals a positive correlation of 0.44 and a positive correlation of 0.55 for the southern part of the ice sheet. Therefore variations in the mean summer albedo over Greenland can, in part, be explained by variations in the NAO such that during periods of intensification of the normal mode of the NAO the mean summer albedo is above normal. Trend analysis reveals an overall downward trend in surface albedo from 1981 to 1998, which agrees with recent trends in melt and precipitation. However, the trend was found not to be statistically significant but rather influenced by the low albedo in recent years.