Annual Exit Research Articles

Organizational capital and firm risk – Testing the outside option

We examine organizational capital risk on a micro level by identifying 120,017 quasi-voluntary inventor moves between firms over three decades. Consistent with survey results from Eisfeldt and Papanikolaou (2013), we find that a 10% increase in organizational capital results in a 1.8% greater annual exit of firm inventors. Exit risk is higher 1) where employees are more transferable between firms and 2) among financially constrained firms that cannot compensate valuable employees competitively. Valuations are lower for firms with greater levels of inventor turnover / outflows.

Analysis of the organ allocation system for liver transplantation in Chile

In Chile, organ allocation for liver transplantation (LT) in adults is prioritized according to the MELD-Na score. Exceptions such as Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) and other non-HCC exceptions receive a score called Operational MELD score. To evaluate the effectiveness of the MELD-Na score and the operational MELD score as a prioritization system for LT in Chile. Retrospective analysis of the waiting list (WL) of adult candidates (≥ 15 years) for elective LT in Chile from 2011 to 2017. The probability of leaving the WL, defined by death or contraindication for LT was compared in three groups: 1) Cirrhotic patients prioritized according to their real MELD-Na score (CPM), 2) HCC and 3) other non-HCC exceptions. We analyzed 730 candidates for LT, with a median age of 57 years, 431 (56%) were men. In the study period, 352 LT were performed (48%). The annual exit rate was significantly higher in the CPM group (45.5%) compared to HCC (33.1%) and non-HCC (29.3%), (p < 0.001). Post LT survival was 86% at 1 year and 85% at 5 years, without significant differences between groups. In the CPM group, post-transplant survival was significantly lower (p < 0.05) in patients with MELD-Na ≥ 30 at transplant (81% per year) compared to patients with patients with MELD-Na < 30 (91% per year). MELD-Na score can discriminate very well patients who have a higher risk of death in the short and medium term. However, the assignment of operational scores for situations of exception produces inequities in the allocation of organs for LT and must therefore be carefully adjusted.

An Evaluation of the SCORE Program: A Novel Research and Mentoring Program for Medical Students in Obstetrics/Gynecology and Otolaryngology.

There has been a steady decrease in the number of physician-scientists and a lack of diversity and inclusion of underrepresented minorities (URMs) in medicine. To assess the research productivity, interest, and experience of medical students, including URMs, and resident and faculty mentors of the Kaiser Permanente Oakland Medical Center's 8-week, intensive, mentored Summer Clinical Otolaryngology and Obstetrics/Gynecology Research (SCORE) Program for second-year medical students. A database of SCORE Program research projects was generated from 2016, when the program was launched, through 2018. SCORE Program students and faculty completed a brief, mixed-methods, anonymous exit survey that captured respondents' experiences, perceived program strengths, and opportunities for improvement. The number of peer-reviewed manuscripts produced were counted. A total of 16 SCORE Program students (50% female and 38% URMs) between 2016 and 2018 and 8 residents and 8 faculty members in 2018 completed a brief, mixed-methods, anonymous exit survey that captured respondents' experiences, perceived program strengths, and opportunities for improvement. The medical students coauthored 12 published peer-reviewed articles, 25 abstracts or national posters, and 1 opinion editorial. According to the program's annual exit survey, 87% of students reported an increased interest in pursuing research, 93% had an increased interest in their respective specialties, and 93% believed they had positive mentorship experiences. Similarly, faculty and residents enjoyed mentoring students, thought that students positively contributed to their projects, and would support the SCORE Program in the future. Structured research and mentoring experiences, such as the SCORE Program, may encourage students, including URMs, to pursue research throughout their careers in addition to adding research to their curriculum vitae to strengthen their residency applications.

THE EITC AND EMPLOYMENT TRANSITIONS

Many low-income households experience high-frequency labor market transitions. It is unclear how the earned income tax credit (EITC) work incentives affect these frequent entry and exit decisions. Exploiting the panel nature of the Current Population Survey (CPS), I show that EITC expansions induce less-educated single women with previous work experience to work more months, leading to more annual weeks worked and less annual exit, suggesting the EITC operates, in part, by keeping previously employed single women in the labor force. Employment responds to changes in the previous year’s EITC, consistent with people learning about how the returns to work have changed and then responding.

Can Technological Innovation Improve the Survival of Start-ups? A Study of Theory and Experience

Technological innovation is the source of power to enhance the core competitiveness and improve the survival and development of enterprises. In recent years, our government has encouraged enterprises to innovate and start businesses, vigorously advocating mass entrepreneurship and innovation”, and the vigor of innovation and entrepreneurship has burst out. A large number of high-tech enterprises have risen rapidly. To some extent, technological innovation has become a common choice for enterprises to survive and develop. However, while technological innovation enhances the competitiveness of enterprises, it also makes enterprises face the risk of market withdrawal. According to the statistics of the database of all state-owned enterprises and above-scale non-state-owned industrial enterprises of the National Bureau of Statistics, the average survival time of Chinese manufacturing enterprises was about 6.64 years from 1998 to 2011, with an average annual exit rate of 17%, and the average survival time of enterprises with scientific and technological innovation activities was about 6.82 years, of which nearly 50% of innovative enterprises were before entering the market. Within six years, less than 10% of innovative enterprises have survived for 10 years. The high market exit rate is a prominent problem faced by Chinese enterprises in the period of transition, and technological innovation affects the survival of enterprises through various channels. Therefore, it is an important research topic to reveal the mechanism of technological innovation affecting the survival of manufacturing enterprises and provide empirical evidence with Chinese characteristics.Based on the construction of a Schumpeterian competition and innovation theory model, this article incorporates the scale effect of R&D investment and market concentration into the analytical framework, selecting the Weibull survival risk model to empirically test the impact of technological innovation on the survival of start-ups by using the data of all state-owned enterprises and above-scale non-state-owned industrial enterprises of the National Bureau of Statistics. We find that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship of diminishing scale effects between R&D intensity and enterprise survival. Moreover, the impact of R&D intensity and market concentration on the survival of enterprises is complementary. Given the intensity of R&D, the survival time of enterprises is longer if it is in a more concentrated industry. Finally, the relationship between technological innovation and enterprise survival is also affected by the technical level of the industry and the ownership structure of enterprises. The survival risk rate of enterprises in the high-tech industry is lower, and the level of R&D of state-owned enterprises is higher, but the survival risk rate is higher than that of non-state-owned enterprises. These findings enrich the research on the relationship between technological innovation and enterprise survival, deepen our understanding of the impact of technological innovation on the survival of enterprises, and have theoretical and empirical implications for government policies.

The EITC and Employment Transitions: Labor Force Attachment, Annual Exit, and the Role of Information

Many low-income households experience high frequency labor market transitions. It is unclear how the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) work incentives affect these frequent entry and exit decisions. Exploiting the panel nature of the Current Population Survey, I show that EITC expansions induce less-educated single women with previous work experience to work more months, leading to more annual weeks worked and less annual exit, suggesting the EITC operates in part by keeping previously employed single women in the labor force. Employment responds to changes in the previous year's EITC, consistent with people responding to information about the returns to work.

Exit Dynamics of Start-Up Firms: Does Profit Matter?

While little attention has been paid to the role of profitability in the empirical literature on firm exit, we employ a detailed recently established database of Norwegian manufacturing firms to identify the extent to which profitability explains a firm's exit behavior. Some key characteristics of the data are: i) 25 percent of firms that exited experienced positive profits every year before exit, ii) there is no negative profitability shock immediately prior to exit, and iii) firms may continue production, even though they frequently experience negative profits. We use these data to estimate a theory-founded econometric model of exit, where the exit and investment decisions of firms are formulated as the solution to a discrete-continuous dynamic programming problem. In particular, the probability of exit depends on profitability, which is not directly observable to the econometrician. We estimate this model for six manufacturing industries and find that increased profitability lowers the probability of exit and that this effect is statistically significant in all industries. We show that the difference in annual exit probability between firms that exited during the observation period (1994-2009) and firms that did not exit is highly persistent over time, and there is no tendency for a sharp increase in the estimated exit probability just prior to exit. Hence, it is the cumulative effect of the higher risk of exit over several years, compared with the average firm, that causes firms to exit.

Dynamics of antibodies against hypodermin C in reindeer infested with the reindeer warble fly, Hypoderma tarandi

Serum samples from 25 reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus tarandus) were assayed for antibody against hypodermin C (HyC) using an ELISA. Nineteen animals were calves (born in 1998, 1999 or 2001) and six were adults (3–10 years old at first blood collection). The samples were collected over periods of 4 months (calves born in 2001) or 27 months (adults and calves born in 1998 and 1999), the latter encompassing three Hypoderma tarandi infestation seasons. The calves received antibodies against HyC from their mothers, either by placental transfer or through the ingestion of colostrum. The low level at 3 h postpartum compared to the high level 3 days after birth in one calf suggests that the antibodies are transferred through colostrum. The levels of antibody of maternal origin decreased rapidly and reached low levels by mid-July, which coincides with the onset of the major Hypoderma ovipositioning season in this region. The calves thus did not appear to be protected by antibody against HyC when they were exposed to H. tarandi infestation for the first time. Antibody levels increased following infestation and reached a maximum during November or December, which coincides with when the H. tarandi larva stops migrating after it has reached the site under the skin of the back of the host and develops further. Levels declined thereafter and reached a nadir during the following summer. After the subsequent re-infestation, the increase in levels occurred at least 1 month earlier than with the first infestation. Levels remained elevated throughout the year after repeated infestations. This implies that the antibodies persist after the annual exit of mature larvae from the animal, and after larvae have been killed by application of ivermectin. Levels in adults, however, declined significantly with age, and levels were significantly lower in animals that were 4–11 years old than in 1-year-old animals during the same 1-year period. This supports the contention that the functional capacity of the immune system declines gradually with age. The study demonstrated that HyC is potentially useful for serological diagnosis of hypodermosis in reindeer, but the persistence of antibodies complicates interpretation of antibody-based surveillance programme data in all cases other than first-time exposure.

Focus Groups and Exit Interviews Are Components of Chemistry Department Program Assessment

The Chemistry Department, in conjunction with the Assessment and Institutional Research Office (AIRO) and the Department of Counseling and Human Services developed an assessment plan which incorporates use of focus groups and exit interviews. As part of the five-year departmental review, a number of student focus groups were facilitated to evaluate (a) the freshman and sophomore organic chemistry programs which also service other departments and (b) the upper division lecture and laboratory program for majors. Use of direct conversation in program assessment yields less ambiguous results compared with other methods because responses can be clarified with careful follow up questions. Success of this project gave rise to use of annual exit interviews with graduating seniors from the chemistry department. The approach described can easily be modified to meet the needs of any academic setting.