Annual Age-adjusted Mortality Research Articles

Trends in primary malignant bone cancer incidence and mortality in the United States, 2000–2017: A population-based study

BackgroundPrimary malignant bone cancers have extremely low incidence, resulting in poor evaluation of their epidemiological characteristics. The objective of this study was to investigate trends in the incidence of primary malignant bone cancers and related mortality. Materials and methodsData from patients diagnosed with malignant bone cancers from 2000 to 2017 in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database were retrospectively analyzed. Annual age-adjusted incidence and mortality were calculated, and the annual percentage change analyzed. Further, characteristics including patient age and sex, as well as the primary site and stage of different tumor types, were analyzed. ResultsThe overall age-adjusted incidence rate of primary malignant bone cancers was 7.70 per million people per year, and incidence rates had increased in patients between 60 and 79 years old, or with tumor size ≥ 8 cm. The incidence of chordoma increased significantly (annual percentage change (APC), 3.0 % per year), while those of WHO grade I and II primary bone cancers decreased. During 2000–2017, the mortality rate attributable to malignant bone cancers across the entire United States was 4.41 per million people per year. A positive mortality trend was observed during the study period (APC = 0.7 %, 95 % confidence interval: 0.0 %–1.5 %). Patients with osteosarcoma, and those who were female or of white ethnicity showed significant increasing trends in mortality rate. ConclusionsDifferent tumor types have variable epidemiological manifestations, in terms of incidence and mortality, and exhibited altered trends over recent years. These variables can provide guidance to inform allocation of medical resources.

Abstract WMP103: Tightening of the Stroke Belt

Background: Higher stroke mortality in the Southeastern United States has been recognized for over 80 years, but recent trends from in Stroke Belt (SB) vs non-SB stroke death rates have not been well delineated. Methods: We analyzed stroke-related annual age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) in the CDC Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database from 1999-2019, comparing the 8 SB states (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee) and 42 non-SB states among all individuals and subgroups of age, sex, race-ethnicity, and urban-rural. AAMRs reported per 100,000 individuals. Results: Throughout the 1999-2019 period, AAMRs were higher in the SB than non-SB. Both SB and non-SB states showed rapid AAMR decline from 1999 - 2009, then slow decline 2009-2014, and plateau 2014-2019. Yet, SB AAMR declined more rapidly. AAMRs in 1999, 2009, and 2019 in the SB were 122.60, 80.54, and 73.52; in the non-Stroke Belt 100.84, 64.14, and 61.35). As a result, the number of SB states with substantially elevated AAMR compared with non-SB states fell from 7 in 1999 to 6 in 2009 and 2 (MS, TN) in 2019 (Figure). Age, sex, and urban-rural subgroup trends resembled the overall population. Yet, race-ethnic variations were noted. Throughout the study period in the SB, Black individuals had the highest AAMRs but had a steeper decline than White individuals, with the gap narrowing from 49.50 (163.06 vs 113.56) in 1999 to 28.45 (96.97 vs 68.52) in 2019. AAMRs for Hispanic and Asian individuals were lower than White individuals throughout the study period in the SB and dropped more steeply for Asian (76.18 to 46.76) than Hispanic individuals (54.50 to 35.61). Conclusions: Stroke mortality declined more steeply between 1999-2019 in the Southeastern US than the rest of the country. Substantial SB race-ethnic disparities persist, with AAMRs highest in Black, intermediate in White, and lowest in Asian and Hispanic individuals.

Multiethnic Trends in Early Onset Colorectal Cancer.

Current characteristics of early onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) in the United States have been mainly studied in Whites, African Americans, and Hispanics, but little is known in regard to EOCRC in Asians and Native Hawaiians in the US. EOCRC was examined in Hawaii's multiethnic population. Data from the Hawaii Tumor Registry was used to analyze colorectal cancer (CRC) cases diagnosed in Hawaii from 2000-2019 by subsite, age, gender, ethnicity, and stage. Ethnicity analyses were limited to 3524 CRC cases, diagnosed between 2015-2019. Average annual 5-year age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates, average annual percent change over time, and 5-year survival were evaluated. Group comparisons utilized Chi-square and binomial proportion tests. Overall CRC incidence and mortality declined and were more pronounced for colon than rectal/rectosigmoid junction cancers. Colon cancer incidence rates significantly increased 1.46-fold for cases diagnosed under 45 years of age and rectal/rectosigmoid cancers significantly increased 1.54-fold for cases 45-54 years of age. CRC incidence increased sharply for females aged 45-54 years from 2000-2009 to 2010-2019, and increases in colon and rectal/rectosigmoid cancer among individuals aged 45-54 were higher for females. Among both sexes, the increase in rectal/rectosigmoid cancer incidence for individuals under 55 years was highest for stage I cancers. Overall, the mean (SD) age of CRC diagnosis was 5-10 years earlier for Native Hawaiians (60.6 [13.3] years) compared with Japanese, Chinese, Filipinos, Whites, and Other Asians (p < 0.001). Native Hawaiians constituted a greater proportion of CRC diagnosed under age 55 years and, conversely, a smaller proportion of cases 55 years and older compared with Japanese, Chinese, Filipinos, Whites, and Other Asians. Native Hawaiians had a significantly higher CRC-related mortality rate (14.5 per 100,000 [95% CI: 12.4, 16.8]) compared with Japanese (10.7 per 100,000 [95% CI: 9.3, 12.3]) and a significantly lower CRC survival rate (62.2% [95% CI: 59.1, 65.2]) compared with Japanese (71.9% [95% CI: 69.9, 73.8]), Filipinos (71.9% [95% CI: 69.2, 74.4]), Chinese (70.2% [95% CI: 65.5, 74.4]), Whites (69.3% [95% CI: 67.1, 71.4]), and Other Asians (71.7% [95% CI: 66.2, 76.5]). In our diverse US population, Native Hawaiians contribute disproportionately to EOCRC and present 5-10 years earlier than Whites, Japanese, Chinese, and Filipinos. EOCRCs are increasing faster in females than males in Hawaii, which differs from trends in the general US population. Emerging ethnic disparities in EOCRC in the US speak to the need for studies on targeted interventions and ethnic-specific risk factors for EOCRC.

Drug overdose mortality rates by educational attainment and sex for adults aged 25–64 in the United States before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2015–2021

IntroductionDramatic increases in U.S. drug overdose deaths involving synthetic opioids, especially fentanyl, beginning around 2014 have driven a marked progression in overall drug overdose deaths in the U.S., which sharply rose to unprecedented levels amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Disparities in drug overdose deaths by educational attainment (EA) during the fentanyl era of the drug overdose epidemic and its intersection with the COVID-19 pandemic have not been widely scrutinized. MethodsUtilizing restricted-use mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and population estimates from the American Community Survey, we estimated annual national age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) from drug overdoses jointly stratified by EA and sex for adults aged 25–64 from 2015 to 2021. State-level AAMRs in 2015 and 2021 were also estimated to examine the geographic variation in the cumulative evolution of EA-related disparities over the course of the analysis period. ResultsNationally, AAMRs rose fastest among persons with at most a high school-level education, whereas little to no change was observed for bachelor’s degree holders, widening pre-existing disparities. During the analysis period, the difference in national AAMRs between persons with at most a high school-level education and bachelor’s degree holders increased from less than 8-fold (2015) to approximately 13-fold (2021). The national widening of EA-related disparities accelerated amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and they widened in nearly every state. Among non-bachelor’s degree holders, national AAMRs increased markedly faster for males. ConclusionsThe widening disparities in drug overdose deaths by EA are a likely indicator of a rapidly increasing socioeconomic divide in drug overdose mortality more broadly. Policy strategies should address upstream socioeconomic drivers of drug use and overdose, particularly among males.

Twenty-year outcome of prevalence, incidence, mortality and survival rate in patients with malignant bone tumors.

Malignant bone tumors are a group of rare malignant tumors and our study aimed to update the recent epidemiologic estimates based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. Patients diagnosed with malignant bone tumors from 2000 to 2019 were included and their characteristics were retrospectively described. The limited-duration prevalence, annual age-adjusted incidence and mortality were calculated, and the annual percentage changes were analyzed to quantify the rate change. Finally, observed survival and relative survival rate were illustrated. Subgroup analysis across tumor type, age, gender, tumor Grade, primary tumor site and stage was also performed. As for results, a total of 11 655 eligible patients with malignant bone tumor were selected. Osteosarcoma was the most common tumor type, followed by chondrosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma and chordoma. The estimated limited-duration prevalence of malignant bone tumors increased from 2000 (0.00069%) to 2018 (0.00749%). Steady age-adjusted incidence was observed in all patients during the study period while the highest rate occurred in osteosarcoma. Mortality rates differed in subgroups while elder patients (older than 64 years) presented the highest mortality rate compared to other age groups. In all bone tumors, the 10-year observed survival and relative survival rates were 58.0% and 61.9%, respectively. Chondrosarcoma patients had the best survival outcome, followed by osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, chordoma and other bone tumors. In conclusion, different epidemiologic performance in incidence and mortality was observed across tumor type as well as other demographic and clinicopathological variables, which provide potential suggestion for further adjustment of medical resource.

Trends and disparities in incidence and mortality of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) in the United States (1999-2019).

e15551 Background: There has been a startling rise in the reported incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) among adolescents and young adults (AYA; ages 15-39 years) in the US.These patients are often diagnosed with advanced stage and have a relatively poor prognosis.Population-based data on disparities and trends in incidence and mortality in this understudied population are lacking. Methods: We used the Centers for Disease Control WONDER cancer statistics database to extract data on annual age-adjusted incidence (AAIR) and mortality (AAMR) rates per 100,000 population for “colon and rectal cancer” in AYA. We compared AYA statistics with the overall as well as the non-AYA population (40-85 years). Sex and race comparisons were analyzed. Variations in AAIR and AAMR over time, assessed with Joinpoint regression modelling (Joinpoint regression program 4.9.1.0), were expressed as estimated average annual percentage change (AAPC). Comparisons were reported using average annual percentage change difference (AAPCD). Results: 83,371 cases of EOCRC were reported between 1999-2019. We recorded an increase in AAIR of EOCRC (AAPC 2.9, p &lt; 0.001). We noted a concomitant decline in AAIR of CRC overall (AAPC -2.4, P &lt; 0.001) and among the non-AYA population (AAPC -2.4, p &lt; 0.001). Subgroup comparisons showed statistically significant differences in AAIR of EOCRC for females vs males (AAPCD 0.6, p = 0.04), Whites vs Blacks (AAPCD 1.8, p &lt; 0.001), and White females vs White males (AAPCD 0.6, p = 0.02) [table]. AAMR increased for EOCRC over the study period (AAPC 0.8, p = 0.001), as opposed to a decline in AAMR of CRC overall (AAPC -2.5, p &lt; 0.001) and among the non-AYA population (AAPC -2.5, p &lt; 0.001). The increase in AAMR of EOCRC was similar among males and females (AAPCD 0.3, p = 0.351), but higher among Whites vs Blacks (AAPCD 1.1, p = 0.007). Conclusions: This analysis from a large population-level database shows an increasing trend in incidence and mortality of EOCRC in the US, despite a concomitant decline in the incidence and mortality of CRC overall. The incidence appears to be rising more rapidly among females, particularly White females. Both incidence and mortality of EOCRC appear to be rising more rapidly among Whites compared with Blacks. Our analysis underscores the critical need to develop strategies to identify high-risk AYA populations who may benefit from more aggressive CRC screening and prevention interventions. [Table: see text]

Electoral Democracy and Working-Age Mortality.

Working-age mortality rates are high and rising in the United States, an alarming fact that predates the COVID-19 pandemic. Although several reasons for the high and rising rates have been hypothesized, the potential role of democratic erosion has been overlooked. This study examined the association between electoral democracy and working-age mortality and assessed how economic, behavioral, and social factors may have contributed to it. We used the State Democracy Index (SDI), an annual summary of each state's electoral democracy from 2000 to 2018. We merged the SDI with annual age-adjusted mortality rates for adults 25-64 years in each state. Models estimated the association between the SDI and working-age mortality (from all causes and six specific causes) within states, adjusting for political party control, safety net generosity, union coverage, immigrant population, and stable characteristics of states. We assessed whether economic (income, unemployment), behavioral (alcohol consumption, sleep), and social (marriage, violent crime, incarceration) factors accounted for the association. Increasing electoral democracy in a state from a moderate level (defined as the third quintile of the SDI distribution) to a high level (defined as the fifth quintile) was associated with an estimated 3.2% and 2.7% lower mortality rate among working-age men and women, respectively, over the next year. Increasing electoral democracy in all states from the third to the fifth quintile of the SDI distribution may have resulted in 20,408 fewer working-age deaths in 2019. The democracy-mortality association mainly reflected social factors and, to a lesser extent, health behaviors. Increasing electoral democracy in a state was mostly strongly associated with lower mortality from drug poisoning and infectious diseases, followed by reductions in homicide and suicide. Erosion of electoral democracy is a threat to population health. This study adds to growing evidence that electoral democracy and population health are inextricably linked.

Disparities in Cardiovascular Mortality Between Black and White Adults in the United States, 1999 to 2019.

Black adults experience a disproportionately higher burden of cardiovascular risk factors and disease in comparison with White adults in the United States. Less is known about how sex-based disparities in cardiovascular mortality between these groups have changed on a national scale over the past 20 years, particularly across geographic determinants of health and residential racial segregation. We used CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) to identify Black and White adults age ≥25 years in the United States from 1999 to 2019. We calculated annual age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates (per 100 000) for Black and White women and men, as well as absolute rate differences and rate ratios to compare the mortality gap between these groups. We also examined patterns by US census region, rural versus urban residence, and degree of neighborhood segregation. From 1999 to 2019, age-adjusted mortality rates declined overall for both Black and White adults. There was a decline in age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality among Black (602.1 to 351.8 per 100 000 population) and White women (447.0 to 267.5), and the absolute rate difference (ARD) between these groups decreased over time (1999: ARD, 155.1 [95% CI, 149.9-160.3]; 2019: ARD, 84.3 [95% CI, 81.2-87.4]). These patterns were similar for Black (824.1 to 526.3 per 100 000) and White men (637.5 to 396.0; 1999: ARD, 186.6 [95% CI, 178.6-194.6]; 2019: ARD, 130.3 [95% CI, 125.6-135.0]). Despite this progress, cardiovascular mortality in 2019 was higher for Black women (rate ratio, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.30-1.33])- especially in the younger (age <65 years) subgroup (rate ratio, 2.28 [95% CI, 2.23-2.32])-as well as for Black men (rate ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.32-1.34]), compared with their respective White counterparts. There was regional variation in cardiovascular mortality patterns, and the Black-White gap differed across rural and urban areas. Cardiovascular mortality rates among Black women and men were consistently higher in communities with high levels of racial segregation compared with those with low to moderate levels. During the past 2 decades, age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality declined significantly for Black and White adults in the United States, as did the absolute difference in death rates between these groups. Despite this progress, Black women and men continue to experience higher cardiovascular mortality rates than their White counterparts.

Primary brain and other central nervous system tumors in the United States (2014-2018): A summary of the CBTRUS statistical report for clinicians.

The Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) contains information on all primary brain and other central nervous system (CNS) tumors diagnosed in the United States (US). Here we summarize the 2021 CBTRUS annual statistical report for clinicians. Incidence survival data are obtained from the Centers for Disease Control's National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Survival data are obtained from NPCR. Mortality data are obtained from the National Vital Statistics System. Incidence and mortality rates are age-adjusted using the 2000 US population and presented per 100,000 population. An annual average of 86,355 cases of primary malignant and nonmalignant CNS tumors were diagnosed over the period 2014-2018, corresponding to an average annual age-adjusted incidence rate of 24.25. The most commonly occurring malignant tumor was glioblastoma (14.3%), and the most common predominately nonmalignant tumor was meningioma (39%). Over the 2014-2018 period, there were 16,606 annual average deaths due to malignant primary CNS tumors, corresponding to an average annual age-adjusted mortality rate of 4.43. In this report we detail key incidence, survival, and mortality statistics for major primary CNS tumor histologies, highlighting relevant differences by age, sex, and race. This summary describes the most up to date population-based incidence of primary malignant and nonmalignant brain and other CNS tumors in the US, and mortality and survival for primary malignant tumors and aims to serve as a useful resource for clinicians.

The predictive power of geographic health care utilization for unintentional fatal fall rates

BackgroundFalls are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries among adults over 65 years old. The increase in fall mortality rates is likely multifactorial. With a lack of key drivers identified to explain rising rates of death from falls, accurate predictive modelling can be challenging, hindering evidence-based health resource and policy efforts. The objective of this work is to examine the predictive power of geographic utilization and longitudinal trends in mortality from unintentional falls amongst different demographic and geographic strata.MethodsThis is a nationwide, retrospective cohort study using the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) database. The exposure was death from an unintentional fall as determined by the CDC. Outcomes included aggregate and trend crude and age-adjusted death rates. Health care utilization, reimbursement, and cost metrics were also compared.ResultsOver 2001 to 2018, 465,486 total deaths due to unintentional falls were recorded with crude and age-adjusted rates of 8.42 and 7.76 per 100,000 population respectively. Comparing age-adjusted rates, males had a significantly higher age-adjusted death rate (9.89 vs. 6.17; p < 0.00001), but both male and female annual age-adjusted mortality rates are expected to rise (Male: + 0.25 rate/year, R2= 0.98; Female: + 0.22 rate/year, R2= 0.99). There were significant increases in death rates commensurate with increasing age, with the adults aged 85 years or older having the highest aggregate (201.1 per 100,000) and trending death rates (+ 8.75 deaths per 100,000/year, R2= 0.99). Machine learning algorithms using health care utilization data were accurate in predicting geographic age-adjusted death rates.ConclusionsMachine learning models have high accuracy in predicting geographic age-adjusted mortality rates from health care utilization data. In the United States from 2001 through 2018, adults aged 85+ years carried the highest death rate from unintentional falls and this rate is forecasted to accelerate.

Abstract 142: Lives Lost Due To Disparities Quantified: Black-White And Rural-Urban Disparities In Cerebrovascular Mortality Among Middle-Aged Adults

Introduction: We aimed to quantify and trend excess cerebrovascular deaths among middle-aged adults that could be attributed to Black-white and rural-urban disparity in the US. Methods: Annual age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) for ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) among middle aged adults (ages 35-64) were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiological Research database from 1999 to 2019. AAMR difference between African-Americans and whites (Black-white disparity), as well as residents of Non-Metro and Large Metro counties (Rural-Urban disparity) was used to estimate excess event- and gender- specific annual deaths attributable to each disparity. Linear AAMR epochs and parallelism were assessed with Joinpoint. Results: Lives lost to Black-white disparity decreased from 3850 in 1999 to 2750 in 2013 and stagnated since. The finding was driven by decline in SAH and ICH mortality between 1999 and 2019, and recent increase in excess deaths due to IS (105 in 2014, 240 in 2019). Lives lost to Rural-urban disparity increased from 360 in 1999 to 740 in 2019, driven by excess deaths due to ICH (-30 in 1999, 100 in 2019) and recently IS (50 in 2013, 130 in 2019). Conclusion: Black-white disparity accounting for ~2750 excess deaths among blacks per year remains the leading inequity in cerebrovascular mortality. This is 3.7 times more deaths than Rural-Urban disparity in 2019.

Mortality trends of stroke and dementia: Changing landscapes and new challenges.

Stroke and dementia are important causes of death in the United States and may be interrelated as competing risks for mortality. No previous studies have simultaneously compared age- and sex-specific mortality trends between stroke and subtypes of dementia at a population level. Insights gained from this study can help identify high-risk populations and inform healthcare service requirements for managing stroke and dementia in the United States. To examine nationwide trends in mortality from stroke and subtypes of dementia in the United States by age group and sex. Population-based cross-sectional study. U.S. mortality data from 2007 to 2016. All U.S. residents whose primary cause of death was stroke, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, or Lewy body dementia. Age-adjusted mortality, mortality trends among men and women were analyzed separately using joinpoint regression. From 2007 to 2016, age-adjusted stroke mortality fell by 21.6%. Age-adjusted mortality (per 1,000,000) for Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, and Lewy body dementia increased by 1.2-fold, 2-fold, and 3-fold, respectively. Annual age-adjusted stroke mortality decreased by an average rate of 2.67% per year, while annual age-adjusted mortality for Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, and Lewy body dementia increased by an average rate of 2.06%, 4.90%, and 12.13% per year, respectively. Mortality from stroke and dementia increased with age. Greater reductions in stroke mortality and greater increases in dementia mortality were seen in women than men; and in older than younger (<65 years) people. There has been a striking rising trend in dementia mortality coincident with a reduction in stroke mortality in the United States. There are persistent age and sex disparities in stroke and dementia mortality trends. Our findings support the pathophysiological relationship between stroke and dementia, and have important implications for future research, healthcare planning, and provision.

Levels and trends in Chagas disease-related mortality in Brazil, 2000–2019

Chagas disease remains an important public health problem with high morbidity and mortality in several Latin American countries. This nationwide population-based ecological study analyzes the epidemiological characteristics and time trends of Chagas disease-related mortality in Brazil, 2000–2019. We included all deaths reported in Brazil in which Chagas disease was mentioned in the death certificate either as an underlying or associated cause of death (multiple causes of death). Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) were calculated and time trends analysis was performed using joinpoint regression models. In the study period, a total of 22,663,092 deaths were recorded in Brazil. Chagas disease was identified in 122,291 deaths (0.54%), 94.788 (77.5%) as an underlying cause and 27,503 (22.5%) as an associated cause. Average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 3.22 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.14-3.30). Chronic Chagas disease with cardiac involvement was the predominant clinical presentation mentioned. The highest mortality rates were observed in males, age group ≥80 years, black race/skin color, schooling 1-3 years of study, and residents in the Central-West region. Age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant declining trend at the national level in the period (Average Annual Percent Change: -3.1%; 95% CI: -3.3; -3.0), with different local patterns and a more pronounced reduction in important endemic areas in the past. The findings show that, despite a consistent decline in mortality rates in Brazil over the study period, Chagas disease remains an important and neglected cause of death in the country, showing a marked regional variation that has social and health care implications. In addition to the control measures for disease transmission, it is necessary to guarantee access, coverage, and quality of health care to Chagas disease patients, seeking to prevent the occurrence of severe forms and deaths from the disease.

Nationwide mortality trends of delirium in Australia and the United States from 2006 to 2016.

To examine nationwide trends in delirium mortality in Australia and the United States between 2006 and 2016. Delirium mortality data for Australian and United States populations were obtained from World Health Organization Mortality Database. Mortality trends were assessed using joinpoint regression. Age-adjusted delirium mortality increased by 16.35%/year and 4.04%/year in Australia and the United States, respectively. Average annual age-adjusted delirium mortality rate (per 1000000 population) was 2.90 in Australia, and 1.06 in the United States. Death rates from delirium increased with age. Mortality was consistently higher in men than women, but the rate of annual increase was greater in women. Our study provided important population-level data on delirium and its outcomes in Australia and the United States. Reported death rates attributed to delirium increased over the 11-year period in both countries and were consistently higher in Australia than the United States. There were distinct age and sex differences in mortality trends.

Abstract MP54: Increase in the Urban-Rural Divide in Cerebrovascular Mortality Among Middle-Aged Adults From 2013 to 2018

Introduction: Despite observed overall decline cerebrovascular mortality in the United States over the past 2 decades, geographic pockets of increasing cerebrovascular mortality among middle aged adults have been reported on county-level data; and factors driving this regional increase are poorly understood. Methods: We extracted cerebrovascular mortality rates (ICD tenth revision codes I60-I69) in middle aged adults (age 35-64) from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiological Research database from 1999 to 2018. Variations in annual age-adjusted mortality rates, assessed with Joinpoint regression modeling, are expressed as estimated Annual Percentage Change [APC (95% confidence interval)], stratified by urbanization. In regions with increasing stroke mortality, race-ethnicity and gender subgroups were compared. Results: Mid-age cerebrovascular mortality decreased across urbanization strata between 1999 and 2012. Since 2013, stroke mortality has been increasing in Rural counties [APC +1.8% (+1.0% to +2.6%)] and stagnating in Small-to-Medium Metro counties [APC +0.7% (-0.1% to +1.5%)] and Large Metro counties [APC +0.1% (-0.8% to +0.9%)]. Focusing on rural counties, the profound rate difference between non-Hispanic African Americans and non-Hispanic whites decreased between 1999-2012 at Average APC -1.7% (-2.3% to -1.2%) and since then persisted [Average APC -0.2% (-2.1% to 1.8%)]. Both genders were affected. Conclusion: Since 2013, increase in cerebrovascular mortality in middle-aged adults in rural counties contributes to growing urban-rural divide; while the high stroke mortality rate in non-Hispanic African Americans have ceased to converge with non-Hispanic whites. Upstream drivers of stroke mortality in young and middle-aged rural residents and non-Hispanic African Americans should be further elucidated and vigorously targeted by public health initiatives.

Trends in the Incidence, Mortality, and Survival Outcomes of Adult Genital Tumor Patients in the United States from 1975 to 2016

Background: There is no epidemiological study on the trends of the incidence, mortality and survival outcome of adult male and female genital tumors in the US. Methods: The study screened the adult US male and female genital tumors from 1975 to 2016 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The entire cohort data were used to evaluate the trends of annual age-adjusted incidence, annual mortality and survival outcomes. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the survival rate of genital tumors patients. Results: From 1975 to 2016, 979,105 patients were diagnosed with genital tumors, of which 680,903 were male (69.54%). The annual age-adjusted incidence (283.4 per 100,000) and annual mortality (60.0 per 100,000) of male genital tumors have peaked in the 1990s. The annual age-adjusted incidence and annual mortality of female genital tumors showed a downward trend. The incidence of testicular cancer in male increased the fastest during 1975 to 2016, with an average annual increase of 1.2% (APC=1.2). While the incidence of cervical cancer in female decreased the fastest, with an average annual decrease of 2.0% (APC=-2.0). Compared with patients aged 20-50, the incidence and mortality of over 50 years old was significantly higher (p<0.05). The median overall survival (OS) time for male adult genital tumors was 32.6 years, and the median OS time for female genital tumors was 25.8 years. Compared with the grade III and grade IV patients, the grade I and grade II patients had higher survival (p<0.05). Conclusion: The annual age-adjusted incidence and annual mortality of male genital tumors reached peak in the 1990s, and then decreased year by year. The annual age-adjusted incidence and annual mortality of female genital tumors were decreased year by year, and the incidence was reduced by 0.6% annually (APC=-0.6). The survival of all patients has increased significantly. Funding Statement: None. Declaration of Interests: None. Ethics Approval Statement: We signed and submitted the Research Data Agreement form via email and obtained permission to access the SEER database.

A Trend Analysis of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Mortality in the United States by Race and Sex.

Rationale: Chronic respiratory diseases, among which chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains the largest contributor, are the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. Updated mortality trends provide insight for targeted interventions. Objectives: To provide detailed insights into COPD mortality trends. Methods: This study used death certificate data collected from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control WONDER (Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiology Research) system between 2004 and 2018 among Americans 40 years of age and older. We used Joinpoint regression analysis to capture trends in annual age-adjusted COPD mortality rates and of the number of deaths caused by influenza or pneumococcal disease with COPD. To place mortality trends into perspective, we examined influenza and pneumococcal vaccination rates within the same time frame using population survey data. Results: Overall, mortality from COPD decreased, with an annual percentage change (APC) of -0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.9% to -0.3%) between 2004, at 72.9 deaths per population of 100,000, and 2018, at 67.4 deaths per population of 100,000. COPD mortality in men exceeded that in women; however, mortality in men continued to decline, with an APC of -1.2% (95% CI, -1.5% to -0.9%), unlike mortality in women, whose death rates were overall unchanged. Further stratifying sex by race, we found that African American women were the only sociodemographic group to have had an increase in COPD mortality, with an APC of 1.3% (95% CI, 0.9% to 1.6%). The number of deaths caused by influenza with COPD had increased over time, with an observed APC of 19.58% (95% CI, 6.9% to 33.8%) between 2004 and 2018. Increased influenza mortality paralleled trends of decreased influenza vaccination rates, wherein between 2011 and 2018, there was an APC of -5.1% (95% CI, -8.2% to -2.0%). This trend was also present for those with COPD; 451.4 per 1,000 respondents in 2011 were vaccinated against influenza compared with 352.1 per 1,000 respondents in 2018, resulting in an APC of -1.8% (95% CI, -3.3% to -0.2%). Pneumococcal vaccination rates between 2011 and 2018 remained unchanged; meanwhile, deaths caused by pneumococcal disease with COPD decreased, with an APC of -10.1% (95% CI, -16.6% to -3.1%). Conclusions: COPD mortality has decreased among Americans overall; however, there remain important sociodemographic groups that have not secured the same deceleration in death rates.

Fall-related mortality trends in Australia and the United Kingdom: Implications for research and practice

ObjectivesTo characterise changes in nationwide fall-related mortality rates in Australia and the United Kingdom (UK) between 2006 and 2016 by age group and sex. Study designTrend analysis of falls mortality data from World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database for the Australian and UK population. Main outcome measuresWe assessed age-specific, sex-specific and age-adjusted mortality rates. Mortality trends were assessed via the annual percentage change (APC) using joinpoint regression. ResultsThe annual average age-adjusted falls mortality rate was 38.63 per 1,000,000 population in Australia, and 34.12 per 1,000,000 population in the UK. From 2006 to 2016, age-adjusted mortality rate due to falls increased in Australia and the UK by an average annual rate of 3.77% (95% CI 2.91% to 4.64%; p<0.01) and 2.11% (95% CI 1.43% to 2.80%; p<0.01) respectively. Death rates from falls increased with age. People aged ≥95 years had the highest mortality rate from falls in Australia and the UK. Men had a higher annual average age-adjusted mortality rate from falls than women (1.6 times higher in Australia and 1.7 times higher in the UK). Women had a larger annual percentage increase in falls mortality rate compared to men over the study period. ConclusionsThere was a major increase in reported fall-related deaths in Australia and the UK between 2006 and 2016, especially in the very elderly. Men had a higher mortality rate from falls than women. Factors contributing to the apparent increases in fall-related mortality may include reduced cancer and cardiovascular mortality and better ascertainment of cause of death.

Trends in gender-based disparity in incidence, mortality and survival for major digestive disease cancers in the U.S. (2000-2016).

e13621 Background: Males have excess risk of most digestive cancers; whether cancer mainly due to virus (stomach), lifestyle including obesity/alcohol (colon/esophagus), or both (liver). We evaluated for secular trends in gender-specific incidence, mortality and survival for these cancers in the U.S. Methods: We used official U.S. Cancer Statistics [USCS] data (2000-2016) to calculate annual age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates (IR/MR). It covers &gt;98% population/all states (vs. SEER-10 statewide registries, covers &lt;1/3rd African-Americans/Whites). We calculated mortality-to-incidence rate ratios (MIR), an established 5-year survival proxy. We used Joinpoint to assess trends in average annual percentage change (AAPC). Results: Table shows age-adjusted IRs and MRs for colon, esophagus and stomach cancer decreased for men and women (all AAPCs negative, all significant but stomach IR women), with both liver IR/MR significantly increasing in both genders. Gender differences in relative burden were seen (e.g., MRs in colon&gt;esophagus&gt;liver&gt;stomach in men vs. colon&gt;stomach&gt;liver&gt;esophagus in women), with greatest male excess in esophagus (e.g., 4.4-fold IR). MIRs suggested less favorable survival (higher=worse) for men for esophagus/colon. Conclusion: Substantial gender disparity persists in digestive cancers, with male excess gap decreasing for colon and increasing for liver. [Table: see text]

1487. Recent Resurgence of Salmonellosis-Related Mortality in the United States, 1990–2015

BackgroundNon-typhoidal salmonellosis is one of the most common causes of foodborne illness in the United States. The objective of this study was to update the epidemiology of salmonellosis-related mortality in the United States by examining multiple-cause-of-death data (MCOD).MethodsMCOD data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) for the years 1990–2015 were analyzed. Mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for age, sex, race/ethnicity, year, and state. Poisson regression models were used to examine temporal trends. Logistic regression was used to determine whether selected comorbid conditions were associated with salmonellosis-related deaths.ResultsOverall, 1,987 salmonellosis-related deaths (3.17%) were identified as an underlying and/or associated cause of death. The average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.027 per 100,000 person-years. Salmonellosis mortality rates were higher among males with an age-adjusted rate ratio (RR) of 1.89 (95% CI, 1.79–2.01) compared with females. Mortality rates were higher among non-Hispanic Blacks and Asian/Pacific Islanders with an age-adjusted RR of 2.46 (95% CI, 2.19–2.77) and 2.06 (95% CI, 1.67–2.55) compared with Whites, respectively. The highest number of salmonellosis deaths were reported among the 75–84 year age group (n = 467; 24% of all cases). A significant decrease in trend was observed in age-adjusted salmonellosis mortality rates from 1990 to 2015. Since 2006, a significant increase of 66% in mortality rates was observed. Among selected comorbid conditions, HIV, acute renal failure, cancers affecting bone marrow, and diseases of the digestive system were associated with salmonellosis deaths with odds ratios of 11.51 (95% CI 8.78–15.10), 3.09 (95% CI, 2.01 = 4.75), 2.81 (95% CI, 1.67–4.74), and 2.82 (95% CI, 2.34–3.40), respectively.ConclusionSalmonellosis is an underlying and/or associated cause of death, especially among those with immune senescence and suppression. Despite a substantial decline in mortality rates, since 2006 rates have increased, a concerning trend. If rates continue to increase, an evaluation of Salmonella prevention efforts will be warranted.Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.