Macroeconomic News Announcements Research Articles

Macroeconomic news, senior officials' speeches, and emerging currency markets: An intraday analysis of price jump reaction

We examine intraday emerging currency jumps in response to domestic and foreign macroeconomic news announcements, as well as US senior officials' speeches. We use the robust-to-jump volatility estimator to estimate currency jumps. We provide evidence that both emerging currency jumps and cojumps exhibit significant and pronounced responses to US monetary policy and real activity news releases. Moreover, we find that domestic monetary policy and economic real activity data, and senior Federal Reserve officials' speeches, trigger significant jumps in emerging currencies, leading to large currency fluctuations that would disrupt market stability, undermining economic resilience and potentially diminishing ESG ratings.

The impact of United States macroeconomic news announcements on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

Orientation: Macroeconomic news announcement poses a risk to stock returns, especially that of United States (US) on emerging markets because of globalisation.Research purpose: The purpose was to investigate the impact that US macroeconomic news announcements have on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).Motivation for the study: Investment in financial markets is volatile. Globalisation means that greater economies’ macroeconomic news announcements could impact emerging financial markets. Knowing which announcements have an influence could improve investment decisions.Research design, approach and method: This study is qualitative, following secondary data analysis. Analysis was carried out using volatility modelling, paired with an event study to add robustness.Main findings: The generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models indicated that US macroeconomic news announcements made in relation to unemployment were statistically significant, with a negative impact on the JSE. This was supplemented by the event study in which interest rate announcements that were made in August 2008 (during the global financial crisis) were found to have a statistically significant impact on the JSE. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic did not appear to have a statistically significant impact in the results obtained from the event study.Practical/managerial implications: Investment industry professionals and policymakers should consider unemployment announcements from the US to enhance investment decisions while managing stock market volatility.Contribution/value-add: The results make a novel contribution towards the findings during the initial COVID-19 period and generalisability of the method as well as the theoretical expansion of the theoretical application of globalisation on stock markets.

Unlocking the secrets of exchange rate determination in Malaysia: A Game-Changing hybrid model

Nominal exchange rate determination is a puzzling phenomenon throughout the literature. Thus, the study aims to analyze the nominal exchange rate determination with a hybrid approach of macroeconomic and microstructure determinants, i.e., interest rate differential, oil price, order flow, and bid-ask spread over the long- and short-run horizons in the context of Malaysia. The dataset consists of high-frequency daily data from 2010 to 2017, employing a nonlinear ARDL approach. The results indicate that the bid-ask spread and interest rate differential were found to be key determinants of exchange rate dynamics in the long and short run. The findings show strong evidence of long-run asymmetry in the interest rate differential, while short-run asymmetry effects exist between microstructure determinants and the exchange rate. In addition, it indicates that the bid-ask spread holds informative content to explain the dynamics of the exchange rate in Malaysia. Additionally, the negative changes in the oil price could potentially act as macroeconomic news announcements and the bid-ask spread as liquidity determinants in Malaysia, which play a significant role in exchange rate determination. The study concluded that the prominent short-run asymmetry effects captured in cumulative order flow and bid-ask spread While a long-run asymmetry exists between the oil price and exchange rate in Malaysia. The empirical results allow for long-run and short-run asymmetric pricing impacts of a hybrid approach on the nominal exchange rate in Malaysia. This study is helpful in providing policy direction and practical implications for monetary authorities and market dealers. The bid-ask spread and oil price could be considered influential exchange rate determinants in the short run in Malaysia.

Cryptocurrency markets, macroeconomic news announcements and energy consumption

Cryptocurrency markets, macroeconomic news announcements and energy consumption

The effect of macroeconomic news announcements on the implied volatility of commodities: The role of survey releases

AbstractWe examine the response of the implied volatility in crude oil, gold, and silver commodity markets to macroeconomic news announcements. We find that macroeconomic releases reduce uncertainty in commodity markets consistent with the hypothesis of uncertainty resolution following scheduled news announcements, while macroeconomic releases from the category of survey news announcements increase it. This result can be explained by the qualitative nature of these surveys and their ability to provide information in advance of major official macroeconomic indicators. Nevertheless, we show that survey news announcements can also be useful in resolving commodity market uncertainty in periods of heightened global financial turmoil and when the manufacturing sector of the largest economies is in contraction.

TESTING FOR ANTICIPATED CHANGES IN SPOT VOLATILITY AT EVENT TIMES

We propose a test for anticipated changes in spot volatility, either due to continuous or discontinuous price moves, at the times of realization of event risk in the form of pre-scheduled releases of economic information such as earnings announcements by firms and macroeconomic news announcements. These events can generate nontrivial volatility in asset returns, which does not scale even locally in time. Our test is based on short-dated options written on an underlying asset subject to event risk, which takes place after the options’ observation time and prior to or after their expiration. We use options with different tenors to estimate the conditional (risk-neutral) characteristic functions of the underlying asset log-returns over the horizons of the options. Using these estimates and a relationship between the conditional characteristic functions with three different tenors, which holds true if and only if continuous and discontinuous spot volatility does not change at the event time, we design a test for this hypothesis. In an empirical application, we study anticipated individual stocks’ volatility changes following earnings announcements for a set of stocks with good option coverage.

How to define macroeconomic announcement surprises? An example of the impact of US macroeconomic news on stock prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The definition of a news surprise plays a crucial role in the analysis of the impact of unexpected macroeconomic news announcements. In this paper, we study the properties of the most commonly used measure of news surprise, defined as the difference between the announced and expected value of the indicator. Due to the high vulnerability of this measure to outliers, we consider alternative definitions of macroeconomic surprises. Based on the analysis of announcements of 15 American macroeconomic indicators, we show that taking into account the heterogeneity of analysts’ forecasts or the variability of the previous surprises, noticeably improves the properties of the distribution of surprise measures. An additional study performed with the use of a dynamic model proves a strong linear relationship between surprise measures and WIG20 returns in the first five minutes after news announcements.

The jump dynamics of foreign exchange rates: how reliable and consistent are the results of widely utilized jump detection procedures

This paper investigates the jump dynamics of foreign exchange rates utilizing Barnsdorff-Nielsen and Shepherd (BNS) and Ait-Sahalia Jacob (AJ) jump detection procedures. The sample includes the nine major exchange rates of the world as well as two exchange rates from an emerging market (Turkey). The observation period is from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2016. The number of jumps, number of jump days, average jump sizes and the ratio of negative (positive) jumps to total jumps of that observation period are estimated by BNS and AJ methods and the results are reported separately for five different sampled frequencies. The empirical results strongly suggest that jump dynamics of each exchange rate is quite unique and different from the others rather than displaying common patterns. A major result is the extreme sensitivity of the results to the chosen sampled frequencies which raises serious questions about the practical value of these tests for the investors. The paper by utilizing Event Study Analysis also shows that the foreign exchange rate jumps are related to scheduled macroeconomic news announcements.

Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and intraday market sentiment

We analyze the effects of scheduled macroeconomic news on intraday and daily market sentiment by comparing sentiment on news announcement dates with that on non-announcement dates. Announcements of macroeconomic indicators change neither intraday nor daily market sentiment. However, the directions of the announced values have asymmetric effects on intraday market sentiment, although they do not affect daily market sentiment. For example, an announcement of an increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) reduces short-term intraday market sentiment, whereas an announcement of a decrease in GDP does not significantly affect intraday market sentiment. We also find that the effect of intraday market sentiment on short-term market returns is greater following announcements of macroeconomic indicators that significantly affect intraday market sentiment.

Expectations of Macroeconomic News Announcements: Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets

Research on cryptocurrencies has proliferated in recent years. Our research objective was to answer the question of whether macroeconomic news from the U.S. affects Bitcoin in the same way it affects other common investment assets such as gold, the S&P 500, 2-year Treasury bills, and 10-year Treasury bills. Following previous research, seven macroeconomic news announcements from the U.S. were selected, and an empirical analysis of the daily returns, volatility, and volume of the selected assets was conducted. The results show that while Bitcoin is the most volatile (i.e., riskiest) of all the assets, the expected direction of movement is visible after the official announcement of the macroeconomic news on that day, and is comparable to that of the 2-year Treasury bills. It is also evident that the trading volume of Bitcoin does not change, unlike other assets, suggesting that the price of Bitcoin is always moved by the same players, indicating the closed and, therefore, riskier nature of cryptocurrency markets. Finally, we found evidence that the impact of macroeconomic announcements on Bitcoin returns is stronger when the announcements are negative but, interestingly, the returns of Bitcoin, unlike those of other assets, are more volatile after positive announcements.

Macroeconomic News Announcements and Order Flow Effects on Foreign Exchange Rates: A Review of Theoretical Literature

Macroeconomic News Announcements and Order Flow Effects on Foreign Exchange Rates: A Review of Theoretical Literature

Macroeconomic news announcements and market efficiency: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury market

• This paper investigates the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on the U.S. Treasury market’s efficiency. • This paper employs a robust method to construct market inefficiency measures using intraday data and controlling for microstructure noise. • The U.S. Treasury market is less efficient in the five-minute interval before news arrival. • Investor heterogeneity provides a possible explanation for the decreased market efficiency before scheduled news announcements. We investigate the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on the U.S. Treasury market’s efficiency. Using intraday data and controlling for microstructure noise, we employ a robust method to construct market inefficiency measures. We find that the U.S. Treasury market is less efficient in the five-minute interval before news arrival. Our findings are robust for different sample periods, macroeconomic news announcements, and market inefficiency measures. We find that investor heterogeneity provides a possible explanation for the decreased market efficiency before scheduled news announcements.

Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements

While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements. We develop a novel FOMC sentiment index using textual analysis techniques, and find that news has a bigger (smaller) effect on equity prices during bad (good) times as described by the FOMC sentiment index. Our analysis suggests that the FOMC sentiment index offers a reading on current and future macroeconomic conditions that will affect the probability of a change in interest rates, and the reaction of equity prices to news depends on the FOMC sentiment index which is one of the best predictors of this probability.

Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements

While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements. We develop a novel FOMC sentiment index using textual analysis techniques, and find that news has a bigger (smaller) effect on equity prices during bad (good) times as described by the FOMC sentiment index. Our analysis suggests that the FOMC sentiment index offers a reading on current and future macroeconomic conditions that will affect the probability of a change in interest rates, and the reaction of equity prices to news depends on the FOMC sentiment index which is one of the best predictors of this probability.

Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Exploring the Role of Order Flow

This article studies the effects of macroeconomic news announcements and order flow on exchange rates in Pakistan by considering both direct and indirect information channels during news announcements periods. For this purpose, it employs GARCH models by using real-time data on macroeconomic news, order flow, and exchange rates. The findings reveal that macroeconomic news directly, and indirectly affect Pak Rupee exchange rates. The results also show that the order flow drives fluctuations in Pak Rupee exchange rates indicating the role of trade signals and trading strategies of currency traders in the exchange rate determination. Hence, as part of an aggregated economic component and means of public and private information, macroeconomic news and order flow impact Pak Rupee exchange rates as an integrated determinant. When macroeconomic news strikes the foreign exchange market, it affects the decisions of market makers, influencing order flow, and then exchange rates.

Identifying the role of consumer and producer price index announcements in stock index futures price changes

This study examines the impact of Chinese macroeconomic announcements regarding consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) on the China Security Index 300 futures. We find that when the surprise direction of CPI news is consistent with that of PPI, the reactions of stock index futures price to CPI announcements are stronger. Considering the heterogeneity of financial institutions, both PPI and CPI announcements have a more significant impact on the price of stock index futures. Furthermore, the impact of macroeconomic news announcements on the price of stock index futures is related to investors’ trust in financial institutions. The news surprise of financial institutions with high forecast accuracy and rich forecasting experience has a more significant effect on stock index futures.

Sovereign CDS Premiums’ Reaction to Macroeconomic News: An Empirical Investigation

We assess the efficiency of the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) market by investigating how sovereign CDS spreads react to macroeconomic news announcements. Contrary to the vast majority of the existing literature, one of our main findings supports the hypothesis that news announcements reduce market uncertainty and, thus, that both better- and worse-than-expected news lower CDS prices during our sample period. In addition, we find that CDS spreads respond differently to the four macroindicators across the three different regions. Our findings might help investors in these areas to interpret the surprises of macronews announcements when making decisions in CDS markets.

Scheduled macroeconomic news announcements and Forex volatility forecasting

AbstractIn the world of finance, the volatility of asset prices plays a crucial role, for example, in portfolio optimization or the valuation of derivatives. Macroeconomic news announcements are among the most important factors that influence volatility in financial markets. This paper focuses on the effect of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on the realized volatility of the most traded currency pairs, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, from 2009 to 2017. Realized volatility is analysed on a daily basis, and it is also decomposed into continuous and jump components that are analysed separately. We focus on out‐of‐sample forecasting and provide strong evidence that scheduled macroeconomic news announcements play a statistically significant role in volatility models. Forecasting accuracy is improved by up to 12.4%. These results are important for future practical applications in various areas of finance.

Scheduled Macroeconomic News Announcements and Intraday Market Sentiment

Scheduled Macroeconomic News Announcements and Intraday Market Sentiment

The impact of US macroeconomic news announcements on Chinese commodity futures

Using intraday data from 2013 to 2016, we examine the instantaneous response of eight Chinese commodity futures to 19 different types of scheduled US macroeconomic news announcements after the introduction of night trading in China. We provide robust evidence that the surprise components of a number of news announcements exhibit a significant effect on returns, trading volume, and volatility of a majority of Chinese futures contracts, with gold and silver futures being the most sensitive. Moreover, we observe an asymmetric effect between positive and negative surprise components. A further examination of the responses to the US macroeconomic news announcements using US gold and silver futures over the same sample period provides qualitatively similar results with larger magnitudes. This evidence suggests a possible channel through which the impact of macroeconomic news announcements transmits from the US to the Chinese commodity futures market.